More or Less

4.6 (25)
Society & Culture
Updated weekly

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

12 hr ago

Do Germans really take 19.5 days of sick leave per year?

How do different countries compare, in terms of the amount of time that workers take as sick leave? Loyal listener Dave got in touch to ask us to look at a surprising statistic he saw in the news – that the average German takes 19.5 days of sick leave per year. “This is extremely hard to believe,” he wrote. We track down the – highly reliable – source of the claim, and look at the differences between countries when it comes to taking time of work with illness. To guide us through it all is Lukas Lehner - assistant professor at the University of Edinburgh. If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, get in touch: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Krista Beighton Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
22 Aug

How much of the world isn’t owned by anyone?

Sometimes world events of massive practical significance lead our minds towards some lovely impractical thoughts. So it was for loyal listener, Nigel. Pondering the conflict in Iran, and the maritime ownership of the Straits of Hormuz that has become its focus, his mind wandered to an altogether bigger and - honestly - far less important question. “How much of the world surface actually doesn't belong to anyone?” he wondered. To try and answer Nigel’s question, we enlisted the help of Mark Cooper-Jones, one half of YouTube duo Map Men. If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, or have a interesting statistical question like Nigel, get in touch: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Josh McMinn Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
15 Aug

14 million deaths or zero deaths? The impact of the USAID cuts

As part of their mandate to stop 'waste, fraud and abuse' in federal government spending, DOGE, the department of Government Efficiency, made large cuts to the amount of money the US spent on foreign aid. The task force, headed by Elon Musk, effectively dismantled the US's largest foreign aid agency, USAID - cancelling many of its programmes and absorbing the remainder into the State Department. This has caused controversy in some circles, with researchers estimating that the cuts could result in the loss of 14 million lives by 2030. Musk strenuously denies this, stating that cuts made by DOGE has resulted in 'zero' deaths. But who is right, and what are the problems with these sorts of estimates? We speak to Dr Hannah Ritchie to find out more. If you see numbers that you want us to look into contact moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Neil Churchill
8 Aug

How much of all the money in the world does Elon Musk have?

Earlier this year, South African-born tech tycoon Elon Musk briefly became the world’s first dollar trillionaire. This prompted loyal listener Stephen to email the More or Less team, to ask us to investigate something his daughter had been pondering: For all Musk’s vast wealth, what does it equate to as a proportion of all the wealth in the world? How much of all the money does Elon Musk have? We set about trying to figure this out, with the help of Robin Wigglesworth, author of A Fabulous Debt and journalist at the Financial Times. If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, or have an interesting statistical question like Stephen, get in touch: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Josh McMinn Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
1 Aug

Would you take £50,000 or a 50/50 chance of £1m?

If you had a choice between instantly receiving £50,000 or a 50% chance to win £1m, which would you pick? When YouGov asked exactly that question to people in the UK, 73% said they would take the £50,000, while 21% opted for the 50/50 chance of winning £1m. As you may or may not have imagined, this finding provoked outrage on Twitter, with people saying the UK appeared incredibly risk averse. “This is what’s wrong with Britain,” wrote celebrity polling analyst and More or Less interviewee Nate Silver. But is the result surprising, when you know a bit more about how people make decisions like this? BBC economics editor Faisal Islam explains why he thinks not. Image: Illustration of paper notes with a sterling pound symbol falling. Credit: Jamie Lawton/Getty Images Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Siobhan Reed Sound engineer: Donald MacDonald Editor: Richard Vadon
30 Jul

The mistake in Trump’s tariff formula

What is the error in the calculation Donald Trump used to work out his new tariffs? What happened when the government ordered a recount of bobbies on the beat? When is a tax freeze not a tax freeze? And do redheads really have a 25% higher tolerance to pain? Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
25 Jul

Is crime in London ‘through the roof’?

The crime rate in London has been cropping up regularly on social media and in political discussions - US president Donald Trump has claimed that crime in the city is ‘through the roof’. But what does the data tell us? Professor Matt Ashby, from University College London’s Centre for Global City Policing, has put together statistics that allow you to start to compare crime rates between cities around the world. That evidence shows London in a different light, in terms of murder and other violent crimes. If you see any stats you think need looking into, contact us at moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Andrew Garratt
18 Jul • Subscribers Only

How much luck do you need to win the World Cup?

As the 2026 World Cup approaches its end, what is the biggest factor in who wins? Is it extraordinary moments of attacking magic? Gritty defensive organisation? Or is it all just a question of luck and random chance? We look at how mathematicians and analysists make sense of chaos, xG and unpredictability in the beautiful game. If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk CONTRIBUTORS: Ian Graham, former Head of Research at Liverpool FC David Sumpter, Professor of Applied Mathematics at Uppsala University Luis Nunes Vicente, Mathematician at Lehigh University CREDITS: Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Josh McMinn Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Dave O'Neill Editor: Richard Vadon

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