Excess Returns

Excess Returns
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. VOR 1 TAG

    Big Decline. Options Support Gone | Brent Kochuba on the Fragile Market Setup

    Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify⁠ ⁠Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple Podcasts This episode breaks down the growing tension beneath the surface of today’s markets, where volatility signals, options positioning, and macro risks like war and inflation are increasingly misaligned. Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand explain why markets appear calm despite heavy hedging, and what that disconnect could mean for a potential volatility spike and downside move ahead. Brent Kochuba on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/SpotGamma SpotGamma Websitehttps://spotgamma.com Topics covered in this episode • Why volatility looks elevated beneath the surface even as markets remain relatively calm• The growing gap between implied volatility VIX and realized volatility and what it signals• How options expiration OPEX can create turning points in both price and volatility• Why current positioning is unusually put-heavy and what that means for downside risk• The role of market makers and hedging flows in driving market moves• How geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict are changing options behavior and hedging demand• Why correlation is spiking and what it says about investors moving from stock picking to asset allocation• The breakdown of traditional diversification including the 60/40 portfolio• How credit markets and liquidity risks could amplify equity volatility• The impact of zero DTE options and why traders are shifting to longer-duration hedges• The significance of the JP Morgan collar trade and key levels to watch into month-end• Why volatility spikes often follow periods of suppressed market movement• The potential for a sharp upside rally if geopolitical risks suddenly resolve• How options positioning can help both traders and long-term investors with timing decisions Timestamps 00:00 Volatility premium vs low market movement disconnect01:00 Why markets feel calm despite rising risks05:20 Explosion in options volume and impact of Monday Wednesday Friday expirations07:00 How market maker hedging flows drive price movements08:40 Dynamic hedging and why options impact evolves over time09:20 Why OPEX can trigger market turning points10:30 VIX expiration effects and short-term volatility suppression13:00 Negative gamma and how it amplifies market volatility14:10 Why hedging demand remains high despite OPEX clearing16:00 Jump risk scenario and potential VIX spike to 4017:10 Shift from zero DTE trading to longer-term hedging18:00 Put-heavy positioning across equities and indices20:40 Size and significance of the current OPEX event22:20 VIX spike dynamics around expiration23:40 JP Morgan collar trade and key SPX levels25:00 Why OPEX often marks short-term market lows or highs28:30 Review of prior OPEX signals and market setup30:00 Rising correlation and shift to asset allocation mindset32:00 Dispersion breakdown and implications for equities34:00 Software sector volatility and AI disruption narrative36:30 Using options signals for better timing decisions39:00 Correlation spike and risk-off behavior across markets41:30 Why investors are avoiding calls and piling into puts44:30 Cross-asset correlation breakdown and bond hedge failure48:00 Credit market risks and spillover into equities49:00 Extreme VIX vs realized volatility spread50:50 Why realized volatility remains unusually low52:30 Oil, inflation, and macro feedback loops

    1 Std. 10 Min.

  2. VOR 3 TAGEN

    The War Markets Can't Price | Jared Dillian on the Regime Change Investors Miss

    In this episode, Jared Dillian joins Excess Returns to break down why markets consistently misprice major regime shifts, geopolitical risks, and inflation shocks—and what that means for investors today. The conversation explores how changing correlations, Fed policy constraints, commodities, and portfolio construction are reshaping the investing playbook in 2026. Jared Dillian Twitter https://twitter.com/DailyDirtNap Daily Dirt Nap https://www.dailydirtnap.com Topics Covered Why markets fail to price low-frequency, high-impact events like war and geopolitical shocks The concept of regime change and why investors struggle to adapt to new market environments The breakdown of the 60/40 portfolio and stock-bond correlation in an inflationary regime Commodities bull market dynamics and why energy, agriculture, and hard assets may outperform The role of options and “long gamma” positioning in uncertain macro environments Bitcoin as a liquidity trade vs. store of value and how sentiment drives crypto cycles Fed policy, oil prices, and why central banks follow the “path of least embarrassment” Inflation psychology, consumer behavior, and risks of 1970s-style market conditions Political bias in investing and how ideology shapes portfolio decisions Risks in private equity and private credit, including valuation marks and liquidity issues The Awesome Portfolio framework and why diversification across asset classes reduces drawdowns AI, productivity shifts, and how technological change impacts markets and labor trends Timestamps 00:00 Why markets misprice geopolitical risk and regime change 02:00 Ukraine, Iran, and delayed market reactions to obvious risks 05:00 Overreaction cycles and the Peloton example 06:00 What it means to be long gamma in investing 09:00 Oil volatility and asymmetric risk opportunities 10:00 Regime change explained through stock-bond correlation breakdown 12:00 Non-stationarity and why investing rules constantly change 14:00 Why most investors fail to adapt to new regimes 17:00 Position sizing, risk management, and staying “small” 19:00 Commodities bull market and broad participation across assets 20:30 Bitcoin as a liquidity sponge and sentiment-driven asset 22:00 Fed policy, inflation, and the path of least embarrassment 25:00 Oil-driven inflation vs demand destruction dynamics 27:00 Inflation psychology and real-time indicators 29:00 Are we entering a 1970s-style macro regime 31:00 How political views shape investment strategies 35:00 Learning from past mistakes and adapting to new trends 37:00 Private equity and private credit valuation risks 40:00 Liquidity cycles and refinancing risk in credit markets 43:00 The Awesome Portfolio explained 46:00 Behavior, drawdowns, and why diversification works 49:00 Real estate allocation and portfolio construction 51:00 Labor trends, productivity, and changing work dynamics 54:00 AI productivity boom vs social media drag 57:00 The dangers of consensus thinking and unpopular views

    1 Std. 3 Min.

  3. VOR 6 TAGEN

    They Call It a Lottery Ticket. The Data Says Otherwise | D.A. Wallach on The Hidden Alpha of Biotech

    Biotech is one of the few areas in investing where specialized knowledge may still generate persistent alpha. In this episode of Excess Returns, D.A. Wallach, venture capitalist and co-founder of Time BioVentures, joins us to explain how biotech investing works, why development-stage drug companies behave like portfolios of options, and why specialist investors play such a large role in this market. We also explore the cycles that have driven biotech performance, the impact of interest rates and capital flows, and how AI and global competition may reshape the industry in the years ahead. D.A. Wallach – Twitter https://x.com/DAWallach Topics covered include • Why biotech may be one of the last areas where specialist investors can generate persistent alpha • The “bag of options” framework for valuing development-stage biotech companies • How probabilities of drug success and clinical base rates drive biotech valuations • Why rising interest rates hit biotech stocks harder than many other sectors • How capital flows and investor narratives create boom-and-bust cycles in biotech • What happened to biotech during the pandemic surge and the post-COVID downturn • Why AI and tech narratives compete with biotech for investor attention • The role of specialist biotech hedge funds in the public markets • How large pharmaceutical companies drive returns through biotech acquisitions • Differences between biotech venture capital and traditional tech venture investing • How venture investors evaluate drug development programs and scientific evidence • Portfolio construction and diversification when investing in highly uncertain biotech companies • The emerging role of China in clinical trials and global drug development • Whether AI can improve drug discovery, clinical trials, and pharmaceutical R&D productivity • Why investors should avoid rigid value vs growth ideologies and stay adaptable Timestamps 00:00 Why biotech investing requires specialized knowledge 01:40 Is biotech one of the last places for persistent active alpha? 02:45 The “bag of options” model for valuing biotech companies 05:00 Drug development phases and probabilities of success 07:00 Using base rates to estimate clinical trial success 09:20 Estimating total addressable markets for new drugs 11:10 Why rising interest rates hurt biotech valuations 13:00 Capital flows and why biotech underperformed in recent years 15:30 The biotech boom and bust around the COVID pandemic 18:00 How AI and tech compete with biotech for investor capital 22:20 The role of specialist biotech hedge funds 24:00 How pharmaceutical acquisitions drive biotech returns 25:20 How biotech venture capital differs from tech VC 30:50 Why biotech investors must evaluate complex scientific data 34:20 Where AI may improve drug discovery and R&D productivity 42:00 Portfolio construction and diversification in biotech venture investing 44:30 Volatility, valuation marks, and private market pricing 48:00 Managing risk across different drug technologies and disease areas 49:30 Why China is becoming important for clinical trials 53:00 Why biotech investing must be viewed as a global industry 54:30 The importance of flexibility between value and growth investing 58:50 Will investing become more systematic and quantitative over time

    1 Std. 5 Min.

  4. 15. MÄRZ

    14% for Tech. 1% for Everyone Else | The Weekly Wrap – 3/14/2026

    Follow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on Spotify⁠ ⁠Follow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on Apple In this episode, we break down the most important insights from the week on Excess Returns,, with insights from Vitaliy Katsenelson, Jim Paulsen, and Joseph Shaposhnik. Markets today are being shaped by powerful crosscurrents including AI disruption, defense spending, macro policy shifts, and historically high valuations. In this episode, we highlight the biggest ideas from our conversations and explore what they mean for investors trying to navigate an uncertain world. Topics include the importance of humility in investing, the potential disruption of software by AI, the growing divergence within the economy, and why long-term structural trends like defense spending may create new opportunities.Topics Covered • Why humility may be the most important trait for investors in a rapidly changing world• How uncertainty around AI, geopolitics, and macro policy is widening the range of possible market outcomes• Why some investors are reducing exposure to software businesses amid AI disruption• The importance of management teams that can adapt and evolve in periods of technological change• Jim Paulsen’s framework for understanding the “new era” economy versus the rest of the economy• Why a small portion of the economy may now be driving overall GDP growth• The idea that successful investing may be about being “least wrong” rather than perfectly right• How long-term structural trends like defense spending could create a multi-year investment tailwind• Why experienced investors focus on analyzing businesses rather than reacting to headlines• The potential deflationary impact of AI and how lower prices could shift spending across the economy• Why high market valuations may act as a headwind for future returns• The importance of deep research and preparation when unexpected events hit markets• Jim Paulsen’s concept of “policy juice” and how fiscal and monetary policy drive bull markets• Whether a new wave of policy support could broaden the current market rally beyond mega-cap tech Timestamps 00:00 Introduction02:00 Why humility matters more than ever in investing08:50 AI disruption and the future of software businesses18:07 The growing gap between the “new era” economy and the rest of the economy25:00 Surviving first and being the least wrong as an investor31:43 The potential defense spending supercycle37:44 AI’s deflationary impact and how innovation reshapes economies44:42 Why valuations act as a long-term headwind for stocks50:56 How investors should respond to geopolitical events56:49 Jim Paulsen on policy juice and the future of the bull market

    1 Std. 5 Min.

  5. 13. MÄRZ

    The $1 Trillion Supercycle Hidden in Plain Sight | Joseph Shaposhnik

    On this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski speak with Rainwater Equity ETF portfolio manager Joseph Shaposhnik about how long-term investors should think about markets in an era defined by geopolitical shocks, AI disruption, and unprecedented capital investment cycles. The conversation explores how disciplined investors can stay focused on durable businesses and long-term free cash flow rather than reacting to short-term headlines. Joseph explains how his team evaluates companies during major events, why the AI boom may create both massive disruption and opportunity, and where he believes the most attractive investment opportunities exist today. Topics covered in this episode • Why most macro headlines and geopolitical events rarely have lasting impacts on great businesses • How long-term investors should analyze conflicts and market shocks without overreacting • The defense spending supercycle and why aerospace and defense may benefit from rising geopolitical tensions • How Joseph evaluates the AI investment cycle across semiconductors, software, and hyperscalers • Why semiconductor companies may offer a lower-risk way to benefit from AI growth • The risks created by massive AI infrastructure CapEx and concentration around specific AI models • Why some software companies may face significant disruption from AI tools and LLMs • How AI could reshape business models that rely on packaging public or commoditized data • The potential rotation from the Magnificent Seven to the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 • Why capital intensity may change the long-term attractiveness of some technology companies • The role of management quality and capital allocation in navigating technological disruption • Fragile vs anti-fragile business models in an AI-driven economy • Where AI may create unexpected winners across industrial and traditional industries • Why long-term investors should still prioritize durable cash flow compounding businesses Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and why most headlines have limited long-term impact on businesses 02:00 How experienced investors think about geopolitical shocks and market headlines 04:00 Defense spending tailwinds and the aerospace and defense supercycle 06:45 How investors should react when major market news breaks 11:10 How Joseph evaluates the AI boom and which companies benefit most 14:15 The case for opportunities outside the Magnificent Seven 17:15 How rising AI CapEx is changing the economics of major tech companies 21:25 Why hyperscalers face increasing concentration risk 23:00 Why semiconductor suppliers may be the best positioned AI investments 27:15 Why Joseph reduced exposure to software companies 33:00 The importance of learning organizations and adaptive management teams 37:00 AI, labor markets, and whether high-income jobs face disruption 41:00 Fragile vs anti-fragile companies in the age of AI 46:00 Where AI could create unexpected business winners 52:00 How great management teams adapt during technological disruption 57:00 How AI may accelerate entrepreneurship and innovation 59:00 Why investors should remain focused on sustainable cash flow 01:02:00 What the next generation of long-term compounders may look like

    1 Std. 6 Min.

  6. 10. MÄRZ

    Survival First. Returns Second | Vitaliy Katsenelson on Investing Amid Extreme Uncertainty

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski speak with Vitaliy Katsenelson, CEO of Investment Management Associates and author of Soul in the Game. The conversation explores how value investing is evolving in a world shaped by artificial intelligence, rapidly changing economic dynamics, and historically high market valuations. Vitaliy discusses why humility and diversification are increasingly important for investors today, how to balance quality and valuation when selecting stocks, and what he has learned about selling decisions, portfolio construction, and long-term investing discipline. The discussion also moves beyond markets into deeper ideas about passion, creativity, and why investing, like art, is ultimately a creative pursuit driven by curiosity and lifelong learning. Topics covered in this episode Why high stock market valuations may create a headwind for future returns The math behind long-term stock market returns and the role of earnings growth versus valuation changes Whether the dominance of mega-cap technology companies represents a structural shift in markets Why AI investment could lead to both massive innovation and large amounts of wasted capital The importance of humility in investing during periods of rapid technological and economic change Why Vitaliy increased the number of stocks in his portfolio due to greater uncertainty How investors can think about what will not change in a rapidly evolving world The evolution from statistical value investing to focusing on business quality and management Why cheap stocks are often expensive and how narrative bias can trap value investors The importance of evaluating management integrity and avoiding companies with questionable leadership How Vitaliy thinks about selling decisions and recognizing when an investment thesis is broken Why many investors make their biggest mistakes by selling winners too early The concept of being a value buyer but a growth holder when fundamentals improve Why updating valuation models as businesses improve is critical to capturing long-term upside Lessons learned from great investors and the importance of surrounding yourself with thoughtful peers The idea of building a personal operating system for investing and life Passion, patience, and process as the three pillars of long-term investment success Why investing is fundamentally a creative pursuit similar to art and music The deeper motivations behind investing and why for many great investors it is not ultimately about money Timestamps 0:00 Vitaliy on humility and why the range of outcomes in investing is expanding 2:00 The math behind long-term stock market returns 4:00 Why high valuations can become a headwind for future returns 6:00 Big tech growth and whether large companies now have structural advantages 8:00 AI investment and the risk of massive capital misallocation 10:30 Learning AI and why investors must adapt to rapid technological change 14:00 Why humility leads to diversification and larger portfolios 20:00 The evolution from cheap stocks to quality investing 25:30 Selling discipline and recognizing when a thesis is broken 34:30 Letting winners run and avoiding the mistake of selling too early 42:00 Learning from other great investors and building your own framework 44:30 Passion, patience, and process in investing 52:00 Why great investors are motivated by more than money 1:01:40 The connection between investing, creativity, and classical music

    1 Std. 12 Min.

  7. 9. MÄRZ

    What War Charts and AI Bubbles Miss | The Weekly Market Insight – March 8, 2026

    Follow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on Spotify Follow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on Apple In this new weekly Excess Returns recap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler highlight the most important investing insights from recent conversations across the Excess Returns podcast network. Drawing on discussions with Andy Constan, Rob Arnott, Kai Wu, Ben Hunt, Rupert Mitchell, Meb Faber and others, the episode connects ideas across macro, markets, AI, credit cycles and valuation. The conversation focuses on timeless investing principles investors can apply today, including how to evaluate expert opinions, how AI may reshape markets and jobs, what defines a true market bubble, why international stocks may be benefiting from global fiscal spending, and why the best opportunities in markets often come after long periods of underperformance. Topics covered in this episode How to evaluate expert opinions during major market events and filter signal from noise Andy Constan’s framework for judging credibility based on experience and confidence Why charts showing markets rising after wars are often misleading data mining The difference between believing in AI technology and believing AI stocks are good investments How AI could both replace and augment human work through the task based structure of jobs Rob Arnott’s definition of a market bubble using implausible growth assumptions Why many technology leaders ultimately fail to justify the expectations priced into their stocks The difference between software companies whose moat is code and those with durable intangible advantages How brand, switching costs, distribution and network effects protect enterprise software companies Why AI may be one of the most disruptive technologies in history and what that means for markets Meb Faber on the myth that the easy money has already been made in international and value stocks The behavioral challenge of holding unpopular strategies through long periods of underperformance Rob Arnott on why small cap value could outperform large cap growth over the next decade Ben Hunt on the point in every credit cycle when lenders say no more How rising costs of capital can trigger boom bust credit cycles Rupert Mitchell on why global equity markets often follow government fiscal spending The growing role of international fiscal policy and capital flows in global market leadership Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and the idea behind the weekly Excess Returns recap show03:00 Andy Constan on how to evaluate experts and filter market commentary11:40 Why charts showing markets rising after wars can be misleading17:00 Kai Wu on AI technology versus AI investments and the future of work25:37 Rob Arnott on how to define a market bubble using valuation assumptions29:35 Kai Wu on software moats, intangible assets and enterprise software durability35:31 Rob Arnott on how disruptive AI could be for the global economy39:54 Meb Faber on why the easy money has never been made in markets43:57 Rob Arnott on small cap value versus large cap growth opportunities48:39 Ben Hunt on credit cycles and the moment lenders pull back55:56 Rupert Mitchell on fiscal spending and global equity market performance

    1 Std. 2 Min.

  8. 7. MÄRZ

    1% Growth. Zero Jobs | Jim Paulsen on the Recession Hiding in Plain Sight

    Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts In this episode of the Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to break down the macro forces shaping today’s markets and economy. Jim explains why the economy may be far weaker than headline GDP numbers suggest, how technology and AI investment are masking weakness in the broader economy, and why leadership in the stock market may be shifting. The conversation also explores the market implications of geopolitical conflict, the relationship between policy and market leadership, and how investors should think about AI’s long-term economic impact. Topics covered in this episode How geopolitical events like the Iran conflict affect markets, volatility, oil prices, and investor sentiment Why market reactions to geopolitical shocks often fade once the situation is “vetted” by investors The relationship between oil prices, the US dollar, and global financial markets Why Paulsen remains constructive on international stocks and emerging markets despite recent volatility Why energy and food now represent a much smaller share of consumer spending than in past inflation cycles The argument that inflation fears may be overstated given structural disinflationary forces in the economy How AI and technological innovation can destroy some jobs while simultaneously creating new economic demand Why technological progress often lowers costs and expands markets rather than simply eliminating work The concept that the “new economy” driven by technology investment is now large enough to influence overall GDP growth Paulsen’s analysis showing that roughly 11 percent of the economy tied to new-era investment is growing rapidly while the remaining 89 percent is barely growing Why the broader economy may resemble a recession even while headline GDP remains positive How the dominance of large technology companies in indexes like the S&P 500 may be masking weakness in the broader market The historical “toggle” between technology leadership and broader market leadership in equity markets Why policy conditions like the yield curve and monetary easing often drive leadership shifts toward value, small caps, and cyclical stocks Whether the Federal Reserve could begin easing policy without a traditional recession Why policy support may eventually broaden the bull market beyond technology stocks Timestamps 0:00 Jim Paulsen on geopolitical volatility, oil prices, and market reactions2:50 How investors should think about the Iran conflict and market implications10:50 The relationship between oil prices, the US dollar, and safe-haven flows12:20 Why Paulsen likes international and emerging market stocks14:30 Why higher oil prices may not lead to sustained inflation18:40 AI disruption and the economic debate around jobs and productivity23:00 How innovation historically creates new demand and economic growth29:40 Technology is the tail wagging the economic dog33:30 Why the “new economy” is growing far faster than the rest of the economy37:00 Evidence that most of the economy may already resemble a recession41:00 Profit growth disparity between technology and the rest of the economy45:40 Why the stock market can mask weakness in the broader economy46:30 The historical leadership toggle between tech and the broader market49:00 Valuation differences between technology and other sectors50:30 How policy conditions influence market leadership55:00 Signs that leadership may already be shifting beyond tech57:00 Could the Fed ease without a traditional recession59:00 What a policy shift could mean for the next phase of the bull market

    1 Std. 2 Min.
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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  • Erstellt von
    Excess Returns
  • Jahre aktiv
    2019 - 2026
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