Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Jack Farley
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Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.

  1. The Convexity Maven’s 2026 Outlook: Why Bonds, Gold, and Debasement Matter Again in 2026 | Harley Bassman

    VOR 6 STD.

    The Convexity Maven’s 2026 Outlook: Why Bonds, Gold, and Debasement Matter Again in 2026 | Harley Bassman

    Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management and widely known as the “Convexity Maven,” joins Monetary Matters to break down the hidden risks shaping today’s markets. He explains why inflation is likely to remain structurally higher, why massive fiscal deficits matter more than Fed policy, and how passive flows continue to support equities despite growing cracks underneath. The conversation dives deep into bonds, mortgage-backed securities, credit risk, gold as an alternative currency, and why convexity is the key concept investors consistently underestimate. Bassman also outlines practical portfolio hedges designed to perform when markets move to extremes, offering a rare, long-horizon framework for navigating uncertainty in 2026 and beyond. Read Harley’s 2026 Stocking Stuffers here: https://www.convexitymaven.com Follow Harley Bassman on Twitter: https://x.com/ConvexityMaven Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction to Financial Crises and Convexity 00:30 Meet the Convexity Maven: Harley Bassman 01:08 Macro View: Inflation and Economic Drivers 01:48 Demographics and Spending Trends 03:24 Immigration and GDP Growth 04:21 Fiscal Policy and Inflation 05:36 Bond Market Predictions 13:27 Equity Markets and Passive Flows 17:31 Mortgage-Backed Securities: A Safe Bet? 23:51 Leveraged Trades and Interest Rate Hedges 32:09 Comparing Long Duration Investments 33:50 Understanding Positive Carry in Options 40:36 Private Credit and High Quality BDCs 48:48 Investing in Big Oil and MLPs 55:03 Gold as an Alternative Currency 01:00:12 Portfolio Construction and Sizing 01:01:50 Conclusion and Future Episodes

    1 Std. 2 Min.
  2. Citrini’s 26 Trades for 2026 | Citrini on BS Jobs, AI Materials, Advanced Packaging, World Cup, & More

    VOR 4 TAGEN

    Citrini’s 26 Trades for 2026 | Citrini on BS Jobs, AI Materials, Advanced Packaging, World Cup, & More

    Monetary Matters can get 25% off Citrini Bundle (Citrindex AND Citrini Research) here through January 14: https://www.citriniresearch.com/subscribe?coupon=398e4269 The investor known only as Citrini returns to share his thematic watchlist for the new year, aka “26 Trades for 2026.” The conversation pivots from the hardware-focused "phase one" of the AI trade toward "phase two," which focuses on companies utilizing AI to streamline bloated bureaucracies and increase margins. Citrini details his high-conviction "AI Bureaucracy Alpha" framework, identifying firms that could significantly reduce headcounts and improve profitability through automation. Beyond labor, the interview explores critical bottlenecks in the supply chain, specifically highlighting the importance of advanced packaging and custom silicon. They also dive into commodities like natural gas and copper, analyzing how AI data center demand is creating a potential supply squeeze. Finally, Citrini discusses his "Post-Traumatic Supply Disorder" theory, identifying cyclical sectors that are currently showing extreme capital discipline after years of trauma. Recorded December 24, 2025. Pieces Discussed:“26 Trades for 2026: A Thematic Watchlist for the New Year”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/26-trades-for-2026 “Carving Up the TPU: Leftovers for Jensen or Just Gravy on the AI Trade?”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/carving-up-the-tpu “Robotics Update: Revealing Teradyne’s Vulcan Contract Win, Citrini’s China Supply Chain Tour, and Robotics Basket Winners”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/robotics-update Follow Citrini on Twitter https://x.com/Citrini7 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    1 Std. 53 Min.
  3. Investing Data is Evolving: AI, The Degenerate Economy & More | Matt Ober | Social Leverage

    VOR 5 TAGEN

    Investing Data is Evolving: AI, The Degenerate Economy & More | Matt Ober | Social Leverage

    In this episode of Other People’s Money, Matt Ober, General Partner at Social Leverage, discusses how the data economy is evolving for providers, vendors, and investors. He explains how AI is reshaping data business models, highlights emerging data sources in what he calls the “degenerate economy,” and argues that many alternative data sets once considered sources of alpha are rapidly becoming commoditized beta. Matt also shares how Social Leverage uses data to make seed stage venture investments, how its approach differs from that of mega VC firms, and where the firm is currently focused. He reflects on his career path from quantitative hedge funds to venture capital and how the expanding role of data shaped his trajectory in the investment business. Before joining Social Leverage, Matt was Chief Data Scientist at Third Point, where he built the firm’s data analytics and technology platform supporting investments across equities, structured credit, venture capital, and cryptocurrency. Earlier, he was Head of Data Strategy at WorldQuant and a founding member of WorldQuant Ventures, focused on private investments in fintech, data, and technology. Sign up for Matt’s newsletter The Rollup: https://www.mattober.co/ Follow Matt on X: https://x.com/obermattj Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:21 The Business of Data 03:28 Data Pricing and AI Impact 04:36 Challenges for Data Companies 07:31 Emerging Data Sets and Buyers 14:25 Social Leverage's Investment Strategy 17:07 Venture Capital Market Dynamics 21:22 Fund of Funds and Network Value 22:40 Insights on Software and AI 25:54 Beehive vs. Substack 29:46 Hedge Fund Journey and Data Evolution 31:41 The Data-Driven Investment Strategy 32:05 Scaling Up: From Millions to Billions 32:24 Global Data Acquisition 32:49 Building a Data-Driven Ecosystem 33:06 Transition to Third Point 33:43 Integrating Data with Investment Processes 34:34 Challenges and Politics in Hedge Funds 35:49 Evaluating Data Sets and Their Impact 37:43 The Evolution of Data in Investment 38:49 The Role of Data in Hedge Fund Success 43:10 From Hedge Funds to Venture Capital 52:08 The Future of Wealth Management 55:00 The Rise of Prediction Markets 59:35 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

    1 Std.
  4. Investing in Gray | Pictet’s Maria Vassalou on Aging Demographics and Technological Innovations

    VOR 6 TAGEN

    Investing in Gray | Pictet’s Maria Vassalou on Aging Demographics and Technological Innovations

    Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe Jack welcomes Maria Vassalou, head of the Pictet Research Institute, to discuss global demographic decline and how technological revolution is imperative to prevent economic stagnation. They talk about why aging populations in countries like China, Japan, and Italy pose a fundamental threat to traditional economic growth as dependency ratios are projected to exceed 50%. Maria argues that while these trends seem "gloomy" in isolation, the rise of robotics and AI provides a critical remedy by substituting for scarce labor and significantly boosting productivity. The episode concludes with a look at the "winners" and "losers" of this shift, identifying housing, healthcare, and food as resilient sectors, while cautioning that countries must invest heavily in technology now to avoid long-term GDP flatlining/decline. Recorded December 12, 2025.  “Demographics and Technology” Paper (by Maria Vassalou PhD & Pictet Research Institute): https://www.pictet.com/us/en/about/pictet-research-institute/publications-and-press/demographics-and-technology More info about Pictet Research Institute: https://www.pictet.com/us/en/about/pictet-research-institute/publications-and-press/FT-coverage-30oct2025 Follow Maria Vassalou on LinkedIn linkedin.com/in/maria-vassalou-ph-d-2b771511 Follow Teucrium on Twitter https://x.com/TeucriumETFs Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    1 Std. 22 Min.
  5. China and the Reordering of World Trade | Former Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs Jay Shambaugh

    24.12.2025

    China and the Reordering of World Trade | Former Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs Jay Shambaugh

    Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe   Jay Shambaugh, former Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, joins Jack to discuss U.S. economic relations, China, and more. He draws on his years of expertise to deliver important insights into how America has realigned itself in the world economic order in the second Trump administration. Recorded on December 17th, 2025.   Follow Teucrium on Twitter https://x.com/TeucriumETFs Follow Jay Shambaugh on Twitter https://x.com/jaycshambaugh Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/jackfarley96   Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    1 Std. 22 Min.
  6. How India’s Macro Tailwinds Are Fueling Its Aerospace & Defense Sectors | Andrei Stetsenko

    21.12.2025

    How India’s Macro Tailwinds Are Fueling Its Aerospace & Defense Sectors | Andrei Stetsenko

    This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: http://fiscal.ai/mm Read about Indian Aerospace & Defense and sign up for Dispatches From India: https://www.gymkhanapartners.com/dispatches/major-sector-inflection-india-defense-and-aerospace Andrei Stetsenko, partner and portfolio manager at Gymkhana Partners, discusses the explosive growth of India's economy, its strategic shift toward global defense and aerospace leadership, and under appreciated small-cap companies. Follow Andrei on X: https://x.com/astetsen Follow Jack on X: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Gymkhana Partners on X: https://x.com/GymkhanaFund Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction to Indian Aerospace 01:26 Gymkhana Partners: Investment Philosophy 04:09 Valuation and Sectoral Differences 05:36 India's Economic Growth 14:34 Government Policies and Reforms 18:20 Indian Consumer Market 26:03 US-India Trade Relations and Tariffs 28:06 Aerospace & Defense Sector in India 31:49 Investment Opportunities in Indian Aerospace 37:43 Complexities of Indian MRO & Sika's Growth 42:41 Defense Sector Opportunities 46:53 Indigenization of Indian Defense Procurement 56:06 HoldCo Dynamics & Maharashtra Scooters 01:05:56 Gymkhana’s Investment Strategy & Performance 01:13:34 AI Investments & Alphabet's Strategy 01:18:19 Conclusion Disclosure: Andrei’s business partner is Jack's father and Gymkhana Partners is a consulting client of Monetary Matters parent company. Disclaimer: This presentation is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. It is not a recommendation of, nor does it constitute an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, strategy, or investment product. The research for this presentation is based on current public information that Farly Capital considers reliable. However, Farley Capital does not represent that the research or the presentation is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The views and opinions expressed herein are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Certain statements contained herein are forward looking. There is no guarantee such forward looking statements will materialize, and results may differ entirely from what is described. The holdings identified in this presentation do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for Gymkhana Partners L.P. It should not be assumed that investments made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Additional information, including (i) the calculation methodology; and (ii) a list showing the contribution of each holding to Gymkhana Partners L.P.’s performance will be provided upon request. Any market index referred to in this presentation has been selected for purposes of comparing the performance of an investment in Gymkhana Partners L.P. with a well-known, broad-based equity benchmark. Viewers should not consider any comparative index shown in this document to be a performance benchmark for Gymkhana Partners L.P. The statistical data regarding such an index has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The nature of such indices differs from that of Gymkhana Partners L.P. Gymkhana Partners L.P. is not restricted to investing in those securities that comprise any such index; its performance may or may not correlate to any such index and should not be considered a proxy for any such index. Historical performance results for indexes generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results.

    1 Std. 20 Min.
  7. From Bad to Less Bad: A Quantitative Approach to Turnarounds | Bloomberg Indices’ Steve Hou on “Reformers Index,” Baumol Disease, and Structural Inflation

    20.12.2025

    From Bad to Less Bad: A Quantitative Approach to Turnarounds | Bloomberg Indices’ Steve Hou on “Reformers Index,” Baumol Disease, and Structural Inflation

    Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe In this episode of Monetary Matters, Jack sits down with Steve Hou, Senior Quant Researcher at Bloomberg, to discuss the structural forces reshaping the global economy. Hou argues that we have entered a "structurally, modestly more inflationary regime" driven by five key forces: Decarbonization, Demographic aging, Deglobalization, Debt/Fiscal Dominance, and a secular rise in global Defense spending. The conversation explores the "Baumol Effect” and Mike Green’s theory of the poverty level.  Hou also provides a deep dive into his "Reformers Index," a quantitative strategy he is working on at Bloomberg Indices that ignores traditional "quality" stocks to find companies at a fundamental inflection point. By identifying firms moving from "bad to less bad,” such as Uber, Palantir, and Robinhood, Hou demonstrates how systematic fundamental momentum can outperform the broader market. Recorded December 12, 2025. Follow Steve Hou on Twitter https://x.com/stevehou Follow Steve Hou on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/steve-hou-001/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    1 Std. 7 Min.
  8. Allocators Want What They Want | Andrew Beer on Pod Shops, “Volatility Laundering,” and Building Liquid Alts That Don’t Suck

    18.12.2025

    Allocators Want What They Want | Andrew Beer on Pod Shops, “Volatility Laundering,” and Building Liquid Alts That Don’t Suck

    This episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN: https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-matters-and-other-peoples-money-listeners Why do institutional investors continue to flock to hedge funds when the average fund underperforms the S&P 500? In this deep-dive interview, Andrew Beer, founder and managing member of DBI, joins Jack Farley to pull back the curtain on the "broad insanity" of the institutional investment world and the evolution of the multi-strategy "pod" model. Andrew argues that much of institutional decision-making is driven by "non-economic considerations" and the "principal-agent issue," where allocators are more concerned with career risk and avoiding difficult conversations with investment committees than they are with maximizing returns. We explore why "smooth" returns in private equity and private credit are often used to mask underlying volatility and correlation issues. Follow Andrew Beer on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewdbeer/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    57 Min.
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Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.

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  • Erstellt von
    Jack Farley
  • Jahre aktiv
    2024 - 2026
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    204

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