30 episodes
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog Martin North
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- Business
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4.7 • 89 Ratings
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We discuss the latest finance and digital business news, with a distinctively Australian flavour
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As More Households Are Crushed, Bankers Talk Their Own Book On Easing Mortgage Lending Rules!
Guess what, Bankers are looking at ways to ease lending standards to pump the market some more, as bank margins are under pressure at a time when lending growth is already strong, and more households are already in financial difficulty. The value of new housing loans have risen by 17.9% since March 2023, to $27.6 … Continue reading "As More Households Are Crushed, Bankers Talk Their Own Book On Easing Mortgage Lending Rules!"
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Are Central Bankers Becoming Political Animals?
This is our latest weekly market update. Another wild week on the markets, driven by conflicting data, and a reactive FED, who has effectively given up on forward guidance, and who does not know where rates will go. But despite Powell’s protests to the contrary, some are suggesting Central Bankers are being swayed by political … Continue reading "Are Central Bankers Becoming Political Animals?"
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Don’t Believe The Bankers: More People Are Using Cash!
Contrary to the bankers claiming digital payments are replacing cash, yet more evidence is showing that use of cash is on the RISE! We look at data from New Zealand based on a recent survey as the Reserve Bank there announces pilots to make access to cash easier. The trend of rising cash use was … Continue reading "Don’t Believe The Bankers: More People Are Using Cash!"
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Kiwi’s Cracking Under The Pressure, But RBNZ Says Nothing To See Here!
We had important releases from Stats NZ and The New Zealand Central Bank, which combined highlights a weird and unsettling cognitive dissonance. It was perhaps a matter of perspective, because the focus was on the financial system, not individual households, but given the economy is so strongly connected to what households and businesses do, the … Continue reading "Kiwi’s Cracking Under The Pressure, But RBNZ Says Nothing To See Here!"
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What The FED? Higher For Longer As They Wait For More Data…Still…
On Wednesday we got the FOMC decision, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s roughly 50 minutes press conference, but it was hardly worth the watch as he said price growth will likely resume cooling this year, but avoided offering a timeline for rate cuts. It seems, the burst of inflation seen in the first quarter … Continue reading "What The FED? Higher For Longer As They Wait For More Data…Still…"
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The Stupidest Tale Of All!
Once upon a time, in a land down under, there was a Government who promised to build 1.2 million homes, over five years, or 240,000 per year or 60,000 homes per quarter. And he huffed and he puffed, but despite everything, the best he could manage, at least in the year to March 2024 was … Continue reading "The Stupidest Tale Of All!"
Customer Reviews
Great insight
Amazing insight, suggest joining patreon page and contributing to allow these people to keep informing the general public in simple, easy to understand ways. Patreon.com/digitalfinanceanalytics
Very negative
Lots of doom and gloom with the best of intentions.
Curious listener
I started listening to Martin when his data started to get mainstream airtime and his property crash predictions got him even further air time. That was about 5 years ago. Over this time he had made two big predictions of up to 40% price corrections on the back of his data. Both have come to nothing and in fact prices have grown substantially since this time.
For the record there is no problem in making predictions based on mortgage stress, but given it clearly hasn’t resulted in any significant downside risk, as any good analysts should, they need to reassess their data or potentially draw a different conclusion.
You see the risk here is that some people could believe such ‘headline’ grabbing predictions and act accordingly-so anyone who sold on the advice is now significantly worse off by hundreds of thousands of dollars and potentially not able to get back in to the property market, causing even more financial pain. (The ABC has a similar poor track record of claiming pending doom, on the back of such data and reports released by Martin.)
Fast forward to today and the tone remains one of sunk costs bias and guest with a left political agenda or more excuses as to why the predictions weren’t wrong, because they didn’t factor in any alternative variables, such as government support. That should be considered in any market where so much is at stake economically.
I’ll keep checking in on this podcast from time to time, because as an investor one should never get complacent and one should continue to listen to alternative views, but vet such claims against other data both current and historical.