Fresh Economic Thinking

Cameron Murray

Cameron Murray is famous for questioning sacred cows and conventional wisdoms of both left and right. We chat about Cameron's latest Twitter battle and then delve into a controversy. Wide-ranging analysis - no topic out of bounds - inequality, regulation, housing, superannuation, lockdowns, tax, war, the meaning of life. www.fresheconomicthinking.com

  1. 4 days ago

    FET #79: Welfare for the well-off costs Australians over $20 billion a year! Henry Williams explains how to fix it

    Henry Williams is the Director of Policy at a new Melbourne-based think tank called Policy Institute Australia. They have done detailed analysis of how to tweak Australia’s welfare system to provide for those in need, rather than giving away billions to high-wealth households. It is all in their report called “Home truths: The case for rebalancing toward better means testing”. Here’s a revealing example from the report that illustrates some of the concerning realities of how Australia’s welfare system operates: …a retired couple with a $5 million home in Sydney can qualify for the full Age Pension worth almost $50,000 a year, and up to $150,000 for one spouse in Aged Care. Their neighbours who rent a modest home and hold $1.5 million in super receive no pension at all and roughly half the Aged Care support. This seems unfair—at least according to my internal moral compass. Here is another example from the report …[a] family with two kids earning $400,000 a year qualifying for up to $20,583 in Child Care Subsidy support and about $20,000 in Parental Leave Pay… I think some listeners would be surprised by these welfare settings. In my imagination, these subsidies and welfare payments go to those in need, not wealthy and high-income households. In the interview, we get quite nerdy discussing how relatively minor tweaks to just four parts of the welfare system—the Age Pension, Aged Care, the Child Care Subsidy, and Parental Leave Pay—which now cost over $126 billion per year, could save $21 billion per year. And it would all be achieved in what I perceive as a very fair way, by targeting what amounts to upper-class welfare. Here’s Policy Institute Australia’s website, and here’s the report. *Note that we didn’t cover the more radical policy shift of making cash payments universal and letting the tax system do the means testing. Timestamps 0:00 Introduction4:01 A family with a $400,000 annual income gets $20,000 of benefits5:58 What does some of the jargon mean12:07 The scale of the payments15:30 Age pension reforms28:00 Age care payments39:08 What about welfare for younger people and families44:59 Is it good to pay people for babies56:04 How big are the budgetary savings Put Fresh Economic Thinking to work Why a paid subscription matters A paid subscriber to FET wants intellectual challenge. They don’t want someone to write what they already think. They want insights that are hard to get elsewhere and a public debate that is intellectually honest, not tribal. Subscribing is a vote for independence — you're saying I want Cameron Murray to have the financial freedom to investigate things that other economists won’t investigate. If that sounds like you, and you get value from the research and analysis published here, I’d appreciate your financial support. A fresh economic consultancy Most economic consultancies begin with the conclusion a client wants. They sell institutional credibility and a report. I sell economic thinking. If your organisation has a difficult economic question, a policy argument that needs testing, or a problem where you want to get beyond the usual consultant consensus, I’d like to hear from you. FET also provides custom economics training, presentations and workshops for organisations that want their people to understand the economics behind the issues they work on. If there are economic concepts, debates, or blind spots your team needs a genuine handle on, then please reach out. Ground Rules: Land and Housing Economics for Professionals Put that professional development budget to work with an upcoming FET Land and Housing Economics workshop in Sydney or Melbourne. This two-day workshop is crafted for smart researchers, policy analysts, economists and planners who want to truly understand how land and housing markets work. Sydney tickets here. Melbourne tickets here More details here. As always, please like, share, comment, and subscribe. Thanks for your support. You can find Fresh Economic Thinking on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.fresheconomicthinking.com/subscribe

  2. 27 July

    Aziz Sunderji makes housing Great Again

    I sat down last week for a long conversation with Aziz Sunderji, data wizard and author of the Home Economics Substack. Subscribe to Aziz now. You won’t regret it. With a background in banking and finance, Aziz comes to the question of housing with a focus on asset pricing and investment incentives. This means he diverges from much of the public policy conversation that merely assumes home prices should always be lower, but planning regulations and zoning are in the way. But he also comes with a lot of technical and design know-how. He has built a website summarising the Great Debate on housing supply and price, and a mapping tool called ProMap. Aziz was able to show me live on screen how ProMap can reveal patterns in the data that are usually hard to see, such as the migration to the suburbs and the price gains in suburbs relative to city centres since COVID. You could say that his ProMap tool has made housing analysis Great Again. It would be a dream to have a tool like that for Australian property data. I hope you enjoy our conversation. Table of contents 0:00 Intro 2:51 Backgrounds in finance and property 12:43 Writing books about housing 20:54 The Great Debate compendium 31:56 Where AI helps and where it fails 36:15 The ProMap housing data tool 43:36 Urban cores versus suburbs 58:00 Doubting the zoning explanation 1:02:47 Housing as an asset with a yield 1:11:38 Monopoly, land, and patient owners 1:15:49 An elevator pitch for the housing crisis 1:19:57 What the housing crisis really is 1:33:44 Austin, Tokyo, and closing thoughts References: Aziz’s Substack, Home Economics Aziz’s mapping tool, thepromap.com Aziz’s microsite, The Great Debate As always, please like, share, comment, and subscribe. Thanks for your support. You can find Fresh Economic Thinking on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.fresheconomicthinking.com/subscribe

    Aziz Sunderji makes housing Great Again
  3. 12 Apr

    FET #74: How to think about scenarios in the Iran as an economist and scientist, with Paul Frijters

    Economics can be thought of as the study of human conflict. Prices are one way to settle conflicts over who gets what. So how does an economist think about war, and emergent cultural and political forces that create conflicts amongst groups? Paul Frijters runs Academia Libera Mentis, a new education institution for minds that dare. He documents this grand education experiment here at his Subtack. Paul and I go way back. Paul was my PhD supervisor, and we co-wrote Rigged, a book that dives deep into the way political favouritism operates in Australia. He has studied the way human societies function, particularly how the underlying emotional drivers of greed and love generate loyal groups as well as fierce competition. He even has a book with Gigi Foster about that called An Economic Theory of Greed, Love, Groups, and Networks. This underlying understanding of humanity should be extremely helpful for assessing potential scenarios in major global events, like the war in Iran. Although I am very much on board with the economic thinking about greed, love and groups, I am very much in the dark about the history and current tensions driving this new conflict in the Middle East. Paul has recently lived in Saudi Arabia and has been studying the region in detail. So enjoy this chat and keep in mind how things have unfolded between when we recorded, on 16th March, and what is happening when you listen to it. You can find Paul’s academy website with details of upcoming open days and events here. As always, please like, share, comment, and subscribe. Thanks for your support. You can find Fresh Economic Thinking on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts. Theme: Happy Swing by Serge Quadrado Music—Creative Commons Licence CC BY-NC 4.0 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.fresheconomicthinking.com/subscribe

    FET #74: How to think about scenarios in the Iran as an economist and scientist, with Paul Frijters
  4. 29 Mar

    FET #73: Steve Keen on why economists are often blind to the macro cycle (plus housing and more)

    One of the most requested guests on FET has been Professor Steve Keen. Steve has been a student of economics since the 1970s, and a critic of the oversimplifications of the neoclassical economic school. He was an academic at the University of Western Sydney for many years, and Head of School at Kingston University in the mid-2010s. One thing Steve taught me is to really think about the hidden assumptions in our economic models, which has been extremely valuable to me during my economic journey. Our conversation starts with Steve’s concerns about the Vietnam War draft, and moves on to his epiphanies about what was missing from economics education. We discuss his attempts to model the key insights of Hyman Minsky about the economic behaviour that generates macroeconomic cycles, and the state of the economic debate. Oh, and we talk about the very controversial issue of money creation by banks and the public Treasury! Find Steve’s YouTube channel here. Steve’s Debunking Economics podcast is here. And of course, Steve writes on Substack at Building a New Economics, which is where you can find his latest writings and conversations. As always, please like, share, comment, and subscribe. Thanks for your support. You can find Fresh Economic Thinking on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts. Theme: Happy Swing by Serge Quadrado Music—Creative Commons Licence CC BY-NC 4.0 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.fresheconomicthinking.com/subscribe

    FET #73: Steve Keen on why economists are often blind to the macro cycle (plus housing and more)
4.8
out of 5
16 Ratings

About

Cameron Murray is famous for questioning sacred cows and conventional wisdoms of both left and right. We chat about Cameron's latest Twitter battle and then delve into a controversy. Wide-ranging analysis - no topic out of bounds - inequality, regulation, housing, superannuation, lockdowns, tax, war, the meaning of life. www.fresheconomicthinking.com

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