The Chuck ToddCast

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The Chuck ToddCast is back! If you're looking for smart, no-nonsense political conversation, you've come to the right place. The Chuck ToddCast goes beyond the headlines, featuring conversations with top reporters, insiders, and newsmakers from D.C. to the heartland. No scripts, no spin—just real discussions about what’s shaping our politics and why it matters.

  1. 11 hrs ago

    Chuck’s Commentary - Democratic Primary Turnout Shows A Blue Wave Building + Trump’s Candidates Keep Losing

    Chuck Todd closes the book on primary season with Florida — and leads with the stunning upset that ended it. State Rep. Angie Nixon, a Jacksonville former union organizer and Democratic Socialists of America member, beat Alex Vindman with 56% of the vote despite being outraised roughly 16-to-1, and will now face appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November for the final two years of Marco Rubio's old seat. Chuck’s read is that this wasn't a movement election so much as a performance gap: Vindman ran like the presumptive nominee, hoarded his money for a general election he never reached, and got flatly outworked with primary voters. He's curious what Vindman does with that war chest, and notes Vindman's whole profile felt like first-term Trump resistance in a cycle that's moved on. Elsewhere in Florida: Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in a majority-Black district, Cory Mills lost his primary, Republican turnout meaningfully outpaced Democratic turnout in Florida, and Chuck thinks it's improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds in the governor's race. But the bigger story is national, and it's about turnout as a tea leaf. More Trump-endorsed candidates went down, part of a trend Chuck argues shows Trump's relevance melting away as his approval drops — and that he's actively making things harder for his own party. Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots nationally, up from 54% in 2018, with the biggest jump in Alabama and double-digit increases across multiple states. Chuck is careful with the caveat: primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball — it tells you where your floor is, not your ceiling. Texas Democratic turnout rose even with marquee Republican races on the ballot, Kansas Republican turnout cratered (though Democrats still have work to do there), and Florida Democrats hemorrhaged voters to no-party affiliation — meaning you can see something real happening in Texas that simply isn't happening in Florida. His bottom line: Democrats will win more votes in November, and history says they win the midterms. The open question is whether they can take both chambers.  Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the 72 year struggle of the women’s suffrage movement before achieving the ratification of the 19th amendment, presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of Democratic Presidential hopefuls who will work the hardest to win the nomination and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.  Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.    Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:30 Don’t miss the Toddcast Special Report on the Lakers sale 06:30 Primary season is basically wrapped up after Florida 07:45 Raw primary turnout is a good tealeaf to read ahead of midterms 09:00 Democratic voters have been more enthusiastic w/ higher turnout 09:30 Alex Vindman loses Florida senate primary to Angie Nixon 10:30 Vindman ran his race like he was the presumptive nominee 11:00 Nixon just outworked Vindman with primary voters 11:30 Vindman hoarded his money for the general 12:30 This wasn’t a movement election, Nixon just performed 13:15 The importance of the African-American vote in Dem primaries 15:15 Need to live in Florida for more than a couple years to run successfully 15:45 Most of the carpetbagger candidates lost their primaries 16:30 Will be interesting to see what Vindman does with his war chest 18:00 Voters care if you are of/from their community 20:00 Vindman felt like first-term Trump resistance 21:00 It’s improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds 22:15 Florida Republican turnout was much higher than Dems 23:45 Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in majority black district 24:45 Cory Mills loses his primary 25:30 More Trump endorsed candidates lost their primaries 27:15 Trump backed candidates losing has become a trend 27:45 Trump is going out of his way to make it harder for Republicans 28:30 Trump’s relevance is melting away as his approval drops 31:45 Democratic electorate is expanding in most competitive states 32:15 Primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball 32:45 Turnout tells you where your floor is, not the ceiling 34:30 Democrats outperformed their primary edge in the general in 2018 36:00 Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots, compared to 54% in ‘18 37:00 Biggest jump in Dem turnout was in Alabama 37:45 Multiple states with Democrat turnout up double digits  39:45 Alabama’s governor race may be very competitive 42:30 Texas Dem turnout was higher even with marquee GOP races 43:45 Florida Dems lost voters to a no party affiliation 44:30 You can see something happening in Texas, not in Florida 45:30 Republican turnout was way down in Kansas 47:15 Dems probably still have more work to do in Kansas 48:00 Dems will win more votes in November,48:45 History says Dems win the midterms, but can they win both chambers? 52:15 ToddCast Time Machine moved due to Lakers deep dive special 53:45 The movement for women’s suffrage took 72 years 54:15 Movement started in Seneca Falls, NY with the “Declaration of Sentiments” 55:15 100 people sign that declaration. 68 women and 32 men 56:15 Women could work for wages & have no control over the money 57:00 The movement fractured over disagreement about the 15th amendment 58:00 Susan B. Anthony votes illegally and is arrested in 1872 58:30 Women’s suffrage amendment keeps being introduced and failing for 40 years 59:15 The people who started the movement die, and new leaders emerge 1:00:30 In 1919 congress passes the 19th Amendment, need 36 states to ratify 1:01:00 Tennessee becomes the final state needed to ratify 1:01:30 Vote keeps ending up tied in the Tennessee statehouse 1:02:30 Ratification passes the house 50-46 1:03:45 Women couldn’t immediately vote everywhere after passage 1:05:00 Charlotte Woodward was only signatory that lived to see 19th amendment 1:05:45 Woodward lived long enough to see it, but was too old/sick to vote herself 1:06:45 A political movement often requires one generation to build it for the next one 1:07:45 After Trump, America will need a hard fought reform movement 1:09:30 America eventually gets it right, after exhausting other paths 1:10:45 ToddCast Top 5 candidates working the hardest to win 1:11:15 #1 AOC 1:13:30 #2 Pete Buttigieg 1:13:45 #3 Kamala Harris 1:14:00 #4 Mark Kelly + #5 Gavin Newsom 1:15:45 Jon Ossoff didn’t need to make his Natalie comment 1:17:45 Andy Beshear + Rahm Emmanuel don’t scare red state Dems 1:23:00 Ask Chuck 1:24:00 Can Dems actually bring accountability to Trump if they take congress? 1:31:30 Why were outsider Dem candidates so competitive in MI and WI? 1:35:15 Why can Trump do whatever he wants unchecked? 1:40:45 How should newsrooms cover the Natalie Harp story?? 1:46:00 How do we hold politicians to account for upholding the constitution despite religion? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Chuck’s Commentary - Democratic Primary Turnout Shows A Blue Wave Building + Trump’s Candidates Keep Losing

  2. 11 hrs ago

    Full Episode - Democratic Primary Turnout Shows A Blue Wave Building - From Guthrie to Springsteen: The Lineage of American Protest Music

    Chuck Todd closes the book on primary season with Florida — and leads with the stunning upset that ended it. State Rep. Angie Nixon, a Jacksonville former union organizer and Democratic Socialists of America member, beat Alex Vindman with 56% of the vote despite being outraised roughly 16-to-1, and will now face appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November for the final two years of Marco Rubio's old seat. Chuck’s read is that this wasn't a movement election so much as a performance gap: Vindman ran like the presumptive nominee, hoarded his money for a general election he never reached, and got flatly outworked with primary voters. He's curious what Vindman does with that war chest, and notes Vindman's whole profile felt like first-term Trump resistance in a cycle that's moved on. Elsewhere in Florida: Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in a majority-Black district, Cory Mills lost his primary, Republican turnout meaningfully outpaced Democratic turnout in Florida, and Chuck thinks it's improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds in the governor's race. But the bigger story is national, and it's about turnout as a tea leaf. More Trump-endorsed candidates went down, part of a trend Chuck argues shows Trump's relevance melting away as his approval drops — and that he's actively making things harder for his own party. Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots nationally, up from 54% in 2018, with the biggest jump in Alabama and double-digit increases across multiple states. Chuck is careful with the caveat: primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball — it tells you where your floor is, not your ceiling. Texas Democratic turnout rose even with marquee Republican races on the ballot, Kansas Republican turnout cratered (though Democrats still have work to do there), and Florida Democrats hemorrhaged voters to no-party affiliation — meaning you can see something real happening in Texas that simply isn't happening in Florida. His bottom line: Democrats will win more votes in November, and history says they win the midterms. The open question is whether they can take both chambers.  Then, filmmaker and author Greg Mitchell joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Woody Guthrie and the Ghost of Tom Joad Today, his new PBS documentary narrated by Rosanne Cash and featuring music from Bruce Springsteen, which traces the bond Guthrie forged with John Steinbeck during a campaign to ease the suffering of migrants in California — and argues those 1930s conflicts have unmistakable echoes in the present. Mitchell, a Depression-era obsessive who has written extensively about American politics since the 1930s, explains how he began seeing the connections between Guthrie and Steinbeck and why he refused to make a straight biopic: he wanted a film with current ramifications, which is why it closes with Springsteen's "The Ghost of Tom Joad" set against images of immigrants surrounded by federal agents and protesters holding signs quoting Guthrie. He and Chuck get into the story behind "This Land Is Your Land" (which wasn't the song's original title), the mechanics of securing the rights to the music and the story, his conversation with Tom Morello about the Springsteen song, and how seeing the migrant work camps firsthand fundamentally transformed Guthrie as an artist. Mitchell notes that Steinbeck was denounced as a communist for his trouble, that the majority of California's agricultural workforce eventually became Mexican and Filipino, and that Tom Joad was always meant to be a political character — which is exactly why he keeps getting resurrected. The conversation broadens into a genuinely fun argument about protest music and whether great art requires great despair. Mitchell traces the lineage from Guthrie to Dylan (whom Guthrie mentored) to Springsteen, and notes that Guthrie has had a moment of renewed relevance over the past year as his music finds new audiences at No Kings and anti-ICE protests. He and Chuck walk through the iterations of protest music across the decades — The Clash and Blondie as deeply political acts, Springsteen's own evolution from apolitical rock star to a man now delivering angry speeches from the concert stage, and Jesse Welles finding real modern success in the form. They debate whether a fictional account can land harder than a true story, whether The Grapes of Wrath would even be a bestseller if published today, and what Tom Joad would make of contemporary America — with Mitchell arguing that the collapse of organized labor would genuinely shock both Joad and Guthrie. The episode closes on a pointed political note: Mitchell contends that Trump's corruption so far exceeds anything Nixon did that Nixon himself would be considered a lefty by modern standards. The film is streaming now on PBS.org and the PBS app. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the 72 year struggle of the women’s suffrage movement before achieving the ratification of the 19th amendment, presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of Democratic Presidential hopefuls who will work the hardest to win the nomination and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.    Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.    Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:30 Don’t miss the Toddcast Special Report on the Lakers sale 06:30 Primary season is basically wrapped up after Florida 07:45 Raw primary turnout is a good tealeaf to read ahead of midterms 09:00 Democratic voters have been more enthusiastic w/ higher turnout 09:30 Alex Vindman loses Florida senate primary to Angie Nixon 10:30 Vindman ran his race like he was the presumptive nominee 11:00 Nixon just outworked Vindman with primary voters 11:30 Vindman hoarded his money for the general 12:30 This wasn’t a movement election, Nixon just performed 13:15 The importance of the African-American vote in Dem primaries 15:15 Need to live in Florida for more than a couple years to run successfully 15:45 Most of the carpetbagger candidates lost their primaries 16:30 Will be interesting to see what Vindman does with his war chest 18:00 Voters care if you are of/from their community 20:00 Vindman felt like first-term Trump resistance 21:00 It’s improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds 22:15 Florida Republican turnout was much higher than Dems 23:45 Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in majority black district 24:45 Cory Mills loses his primary 25:30 More Trump endorsed candidates lost their primaries 27:15 Trump backed candidates losing has become a trend 27:45 Trump is going out of his way to make it harder for Republicans 28:30 Trump’s relevance is melting away as his approval drops 31:45 Democratic electorate is expanding in most competitive states 32:15 Primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball 32:45 Turnout tells you where your floor is, not the ceiling 34:30 Democrats outperformed their primary edge in the general in 2018 36:00 Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots, compared to 54% in ‘18 37:00 Biggest jump in Dem turnout was in Alabama 37:45 Multiple states with Democrat turnout up double digits  39:45 Alabama’s governor race may be very competitive 42:30 Texas Dem turnout was higher even with marquee GOP races 43:45 Florida Dems lost voters to a no party affiliation 44:30 You can see something happening in Texas, not in Florida 45:30 Republican turnout was way down in Kansas 47:15 Dems probably still have more work to do in Kansas 48:00 Dems will win more votes in November,48:45 History says Dems win the midterms, but can they win both chambers? 56:30 Greg Mitchell joins the Chuck ToddCast 58:00 Making an appearance in Woody Guthrie and the Ghost of Tom Joad Today 1:00:15 Chose the subject because he’s obsessed with the Depression era 1:01:15 Started seeing connections between Woody Guthrie and John Steinbeck 1:03:30 Was it difficult to get the rights for the music/story? 1:05:30 Creating protest songs like This Land Is Your Land 1:06:45 Discussing the Ghost of Tom Joad with Tom Morello 1:08:30 Tom Joad was an inspiration for Springsteen 1:09:30 Woody has always remained relevant. Songs have been covered 1:10:45 Tom Joad was meant to be political in Grapes of Wrath 1:12:30 Seeing migrant work camps deeply affected Woody Guthrie 1:14:15 Majority of agricultural workers became Mexicans & Philipinos 1:15:30 Steinbeck was denounced as a communist 1:16:15 “This land is your land” could be the national anthem 1:17:30 Do we need times of great despair to produce great art? 1:19:45 There have been iterations o

    Full Episode - Democratic Primary Turnout Shows A Blue Wave Building - From Guthrie to Springsteen: The Lineage of American Protest Music

  3. 11 hrs ago

    Interview Only w/ Greg Mitchell - From Guthrie to Springsteen: The Lineage of American Protest Music

    Filmmaker and author Greg Mitchell joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Woody Guthrie and the Ghost of Tom Joad Today, his new PBS documentary narrated by Rosanne Cash and featuring music from Bruce Springsteen, which traces the bond Guthrie forged with John Steinbeck during a campaign to ease the suffering of migrants in California — and argues those 1930s conflicts have unmistakable echoes in the present. Mitchell, a Depression-era obsessive who has written extensively about American politics since the 1930s, explains how he began seeing the connections between Guthrie and Steinbeck and why he refused to make a straight biopic: he wanted a film with current ramifications, which is why it closes with Springsteen's "The Ghost of Tom Joad" set against images of immigrants surrounded by federal agents and protesters holding signs quoting Guthrie. He and Chuck get into the story behind "This Land Is Your Land" (which wasn't the song's original title), the mechanics of securing the rights to the music and the story, his conversation with Tom Morello about the Springsteen song, and how seeing the migrant work camps firsthand fundamentally transformed Guthrie as an artist. Mitchell notes that Steinbeck was denounced as a communist for his trouble, that the majority of California's agricultural workforce eventually became Mexican and Filipino, and that Tom Joad was always meant to be a political character — which is exactly why he keeps getting resurrected. The conversation broadens into a genuinely fun argument about protest music and whether great art requires great despair. Mitchell traces the lineage from Guthrie to Dylan (whom Guthrie mentored) to Springsteen, and notes that Guthrie has had a moment of renewed relevance over the past year as his music finds new audiences at No Kings and anti-ICE protests. He and Chuck walk through the iterations of protest music across the decades — The Clash and Blondie as deeply political acts, Springsteen's own evolution from apolitical rock star to a man now delivering angry speeches from the concert stage, and Jesse Welles finding real modern success in the form. They debate whether a fictional account can land harder than a true story, whether The Grapes of Wrath would even be a bestseller if published today, and what Tom Joad would make of contemporary America — with Mitchell arguing that the collapse of organized labor would genuinely shock both Joad and Guthrie. The episode closes on a pointed political note: Mitchell contends that Trump's corruption so far exceeds anything Nixon did, and that Nixon himself would be considered a lefty by modern standards. The film is streaming now on PBS.org and the PBS app.   Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.    For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.    Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Greg Mitchell joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:30 Making an appearance in Woody Guthrie and the Ghost of Tom Joad Today  03:45 Chose the subject because he’s obsessed with the Depression era 04:45 Started seeing connections between Woody Guthrie and John Steinbeck 07:00 Was it difficult to get the rights for the music/story? 09:00 Creating protest songs like This Land Is Your Land 10:15 Discussing the Ghost of Tom Joad with Tom Morello 12:00 Tom Joad was an inspiration for Springsteen 13:00 Woody has always remained relevant. Songs have been covered 14:15 Tom Joad was meant to be political in Grapes of Wrath 16:00 Seeing migrant work camps deeply affected Woody Guthrie 17:45 Majority of agricultural workers became Mexicans & Philipinos 19:00 Steinbeck was denounced as a communist 19:45 “This land is your land” could be the national anthem 21:00 Do we need times of great despair to produce great art? 23:15 There have been iterations of protest music over the decades 24:15 Jesse Wells has found modern success with protest music 24:45 Bruce Springsteen & Tom Morello have produced new protest music 26:00 Groups like The Clash and Blondie were very political 26:45 Springsteen started as apolitical, then evolved to become political 28:30 Springsteen now gives angry speeches during his concerts 30:30 Can a fictional account land harder than a true story? 33:00 Is Guthrie to Dylan to Springsteen the lineage of protest music? 34:00 Guthrie was Bob Dylan’s mentor 35:30 Would Grapes of Wrath be a best seller if it came out today? 36:15 Film is available at PBS and the PBS app 36:30 What would Tom Joad feel if he was in modern America? 37:15 The fall of unions would shock Guthrie and Joad 38:15 Trump’s corruption so far exceeds anything done by Nixon 40:00 Nixon would be considered a “lefty” by modern standards See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Interview Only w/ Greg Mitchell - From Guthrie to Springsteen: The Lineage of American Protest Music

  4. 11 hrs ago ·  Bonus

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  5. 2d ago

    Alabama: How the Crimson Tide Took Over College Football (Part 1)

    Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande explore the origins of the Crimson Tide and the remarkable rise of Bear Bryant. From Alabama’s early Rose Bowl triumphs and the beginnings of the Crimson Tide name to Bryant’s near-departure for the Miami Dolphins, they trace the moments that helped turn Alabama into the standard of college football. They also examine one of the most complicated chapters in the program’s history: integration, Bear Bryant’s role in a changing South, and Alabama’s landmark 1970 matchup with USC. It’s the story of how football became inseparable from Alabama—and how the foundation was laid for one of the greatest dynasties in sports history. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Alabama: How the Crimson Tide Took Over College Football (Part 1)

  6. 2d ago

    Super Tuesdays - 2028 Presidential Preview: AOC Rising, Newsom Overrated, Harris Out

    With under 80 days to the midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza pause the horse race for a full "where are we now" audit of the 2028 Democratic field — prompted, Chris admits, by listener pushback that they'd been too dismissive of Gavin Newsom. Using the Kalshi and Polymarket odds as a starting point rather than gospel, they work through a top tier of AOC, Newsom, and Jon Ossoff. Chuck's central thesis is that AOC could become a magnetic force on the scale of Trump in 2016 or Obama in 2008 — a candidacy the entire field gets measured against, potentially freezing out half the governors and senators eyeing a run. He maps how she could be the frontrunner while playing underdog in South Carolina, and why the new calendar's crowded first state may actually cushion her. On Newsom, Chuck is blunt: the prediction markets are artificially inflating him, the attention economy is doing the work, and a California governor with a mixed record has no obvious state to win. They also make the case that Kamala Harris ultimately doesn't run — and that not running is the smarter play for 2032. The back half turns to the field's second tier and its long shots: whether Mark Kelly has the hunger and the issue to go with the biography (Chuck's dream ticket: Kelly and Warnock, order randomized), why John Glenn and Bill Bradley are the cautionary tales for résumé candidates, whether Ossoff can realistically jump straight from an $87 million Senate race into a billion-dollar presidential campaign, and a genuine dark-horse case for Rahm Emanuel built on the party's underinvestment in rural Black voters. They preview Tuesday's Florida primary — Byron Donalds's real ceiling, why Chuck thinks the general could land inside five points, the Mel Martinez precedent, and Corey Mills, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and Alex Vindman. Then the tone shifts hard: an angry, unsparing exchange about the expired US-Iran memorandum, the Strait of Hormuz, conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, and Pete Hegseth's fitness for the job. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Under 80 days out — and a full 2028 Democratic audit 01:06 Why Chuck thinks JD Vance will divide the right  02:08 The prediction markets as one data point, not the whole story 02:55 Reading Polymarket and Kalshi: AOC, Newsom, Ossoff at the top 05:12 Could AOC suck up all the oxygen the way Trump did in '16? 06:15 The egg-freezing story as proof of her magnetic pull 06:42 Skeptical Newsom can play in Michigan, Iowa, South Carolina 07:30 The impossible position for Newsom 08:16 AOC's advantage — no long record to defend 09:38 Could egg-freezing access become an issue she champions? 10:01 How her presence could paralyze half the field before it starts 10:57 Where does that leave Pritzker? Or Ossoff? 11:59 The formalized DNC calendar 13:37 Nevada, Michigan and the Culinary Union question 14:42 Why a crowded South Carolina helps the progressive lane 15:13 What 2020 looked like when South Carolina came fourth 15:49 Newsom's real problem: where does he actually win? 16:59 Harris's East Coast headquarters lesson 17:22 Advice: put your HQ in Michigan, not San Francisco 19:42 The counterargument: no gatekeepers left, and the hustler wins 20:10 Ossoff, Buttigieg & who's actually willing to burn the boats 21:08 Newsom one-on-one vs. Newsom in a big room 22:08 Would a swing-state Democrat invite Newsom to campaign?  23:04 Harris analysis: you don't buy in Malibu if you're running 24:06 The Dan Quayle risk if she runs under these circumstances 25:01 Newsom and Harris can't both run  26:20 Mark Kelly in Iowa & the quote that reads like a stump speech 27:15 Chuck's lab-built ticket: an astronaut and a pastor 27:50 Will the Democratic base accept Kelly? 29:30 Is Kelly too pro-business for this version of the party? 30:45 How Trump's attacks on Kelly may have helped him 31:33 The real gap: Kelly has no signature issue 32:03 AOC is the change candidate — inside the party and outside it 33:09 Biographies don't win the presidency 33:30 The cautionary tales: John Glenn and Bill Bradley 35:08 The charisma gap — and Kelly's habit of yelling to show energy 35:55 Scanning the long shots on the board 36:55 If not AOC, then Ro Khanna 37:16 Pritzker at 1% — the governor who could reach the left 37:46 Chuck's real dark horse: Rahm Emanuel 39:32 Democrats' rural problem isn't just rural whites 39:59 The left will never accept him 42:07 Not a cycle for an insider — but maybe for an ideas guy 42:27 The Wisconsin lesson: Crowley won against something 42:50 To Florida: Tuesday's primary and Tuesday night's live stream 43:35 Jolly-Donalds could land inside five points 44:01 Why Florida isn't as noncompetitive as people assume 44:44 Could DeSantis win a third term?  45:24 What's Donalds's real number?  46:16 The Mel Martinez precedent 48:29 Why Chuck thinks Jerry Demings had the better shot at Donalds 49:56 The 2018 what-if: Bernie, Soros, Gillum and DeSantis 50:43 Credit to DeSantis for saying what Trump never does 51:48 Debbie Wasserman Schultz in a majority-Black district 52:38 The Vindman question — and the residency problem 54:23 The US-Iran memorandum expires with no deal 55:46 A $1.5 trillion budget and a carrier crew that can't get fed 56:11 Testosterone tests and push-up contests while the Lincoln goes short 56:33 Operationally a disaster — and where's the audit? 57:57 Damaging the last institution still standing 59:51 The Nats get swept by the Mets  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Super Tuesdays - 2028 Presidential Preview: AOC Rising, Newsom Overrated, Harris Out

  7. 3d ago

    Full Episode - Record Military Budgets Result In A Lost War + Sizing Up The 2028 Presidential Contenders

    Chuck Todd unloads on newly confirmed Attorney General Todd Blanche for appearing at a political rally alongside Trump — a line past attorneys general knew better than to cross — and for openly stating that the Justice Department won't be independent of the White House. Chuck argues Republicans are making the DOJ far more nakedly partisan than any prior administration, that the senators who voted to confirm Blanche should be ashamed of themselves, and that Blanche is essentially telling the country in advance that the institution won't hold. He turns to the horror stories surfacing about morale and conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, where Trump's response was that the deployment hasn't gone on nearly long enough — proof, Chuck argues, that neither Trump nor Hegseth is even pretending to care about the people they've deployed, and that America was taken into a war it was never prepared to fight. After years of record military budgets producing bad results, Chuck’s question is simple and furious: what the hell have we been paying for? He identifies a clear leadership problem at the Pentagon, then pivots to what he sees as the coming Republican civil war over JD Vance, who now says he wants to end the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency and who views America's alliances as liabilities rather than strengths — positions Vance will have to actually sell on the merits, because he doesn't have Trump's charisma to carry them, and positions that could drive a meaningful number of Republicans out of a Vance-led party altogether. Chuck closes with a genuinely provocative question about the missing anti-war movement: where are the protests over Iran? He wonders aloud whether the Gaza demonstrations were ever really an anti-war movement at all, whether they were as organically American-driven as they appeared, and argues the silence around Iran is revealing in ways nobody on either side seems eager to examine — before previewing Tuesday's Florida primaries.  Politico politics bureau chief and senior political columnist Jonathan Martin joins the Chuck Toddcast for a reporter's-eye tour of the 2028 landscape, starting from an observation both men keep circling: the governing wing of each party is badly out of step with its own voters. Martin walks through the Democratic field with real granularity. Pete Buttigieg carries genuine Biden baggage and is fundamentally a creature of institutions — he isn't going to burn the house down, which is precisely why the left will never trust his establishment credentials, and why Martin wonders aloud whether his future might be more as an advisor than a candidate. On AOC, Martin's read is that the entire question is simply whether she runs: if she does, she's the lead car in the progressive lane and could clear it outright, and she'd be formidable in a crowded field. He notes it's no accident she reemerged right after El-Sayed's Michigan win, that she's been careful and disciplined about picking her spots during the primaries, and that she more than held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church — which matters enormously given the Democratic calendar was explicitly designed to stymie progressives by putting South Carolina first. Martin isn't at all convinced Jon Ossoff runs, even though Ossoff checks every box on the list of things Democrats have historically wanted, and he thinks Abdul El-Sayed could be a genuinely formidable presidential candidate. The overarching question, as Martin frames it, is whether Democrats vote with their head or their heart in 2028 — a decision the November midterms will shape more than anything else. On the Republican side, they point out Vance simply wasn't a good candidate when he ran for Senate and needed both Trump and Peter Thiel to drag him over the finish line, that Rubio's presidential campaigns always ran into whoever's "turn" it was, and that the fastest way to lose in this environment is to be seen as one of the donor candidates. Vance's real challenge, Martin argues, is the Tucker Carlson model — and the open question of who carries that banner in 2028. He and Chuck agree the far left is currently stronger than the far right within their respective parties, and that insurgencies are a natural feature of the party out of power. Nothing, Martin says flatly, gets better for Republicans between now and the midterms; the Iranians want to humiliate Trump and Jimmy Carter him, and they're timing their moves to the American political calendar. They agree Democrats are either picking up two Senate seats or six with very little in between, and predict Greg Abbott will have to spend real money to win in Texas. Plus: why in-person interviews still beat remote ones, the disappearance of the old guard of Tennessee Republican politics, how Buttigieg's sexuality might factor into a national campaign, why online small-dollar money means Democrats no longer need to court only big donors — and whether UVA can actually contend in football this year. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.   Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.  For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.    Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:30 Shout out to ReCenter Indiana 07:30 Todd Blanche appeared at political rally with Trump, now as AG 08:00 Past Attorneys General knew better than to act so partisan 08:30 Blanche says DOJ won’t be independent of the White House 09:15 Republicans are making DOJ far more partisan than prior admins 10:15 Senators who confirmed Blanche should be ashamed of themselves 11:15 Blanche is telling us that the institution of the DOJ won’t hold 12:00 Horror stories surface about morale & conditions on USS Abraham Lincoln 12:30 Trump says deployment hasn’t gone on nearly long enough 13:00 Trump and Hegseth didn’t even pretend to care about these soldiers 13:45 Clearly we were taken into a war that we weren’t prepared for 14:15 We keep passing record military budgets & getting bad results 15:00 What the hell have we been paying for?    15:30 We have a clear leadership problem at the Pentagon 16:45 The coming civil war inside the Republican party over JD Vance 17:15 Vance says he wants to end the dollar as the reserve currency 17:45 Vance views alliances as liabilities rather than strengths 18:15 Vance doesn’t have Trump’s charisma, will have to sell his argument 18:45 Many Republicans might leave a Vance Republican party 19:30 Where are the protests and the anti-war movement over Iran? 20:30 Was Gaza actually an anti-war movement?  21:00 Were Gaza protests not as American driven as we thought? 22:15 The lack of protest over Iran is revealing 23:15 Preview of Florida primary elections on Tuesday 28:00 Jonathan Martin joins The Chuck ToddCast 29:30 Why in-person interviews are so much better than remote 31:30 The old guard of GOP politics in Tennessee are gone 33:30 The governing wing of each party aren’t agreeing with the voters 34:15 How does Pete Buttigieg navigate carrying “Biden baggage”? 34:45 Pete is a creature of the institutions, he won’t burn down the house 35:30 The left won’t ever trust Pete’s establishment credentials 36:30 How Pete’s sexuality could affect a presidential run 37:30 Is his future more in an advisor role than an elected official? 40:00 If AOC runs in 2028, she’ll be the lead car in the progressive lane 41:30 The question surrounding AOC is “will she or won’t she run” 42:00 The presidential campaign will be shaped by November midterms 42:30 Do the Dems go with their head or their heart in 28? 44:45 Insurgencies happen in this environment for party out of power 46:15 Nothing gets better between now and the midterms for Republicans 47:45 The Iranians want to humiliate Trump and “Jimmy Carter” him 48:45 Besides Vance, Rubio and Youngkin, who else might run for the GOP? 49:30 Who carries the Tucker Carlson banner in ‘28? 51:45 Vance was not a good candidate when he ran for senate 52:30 Vance needed Trump & Peter Thiel to get him over the finish line 53:30 Rubio’s campaigns were challenging the person whose turn it was 54:45 You don’t want to be seen as one of the “donor candidates” 55:30 Vance’s biggest challenge will be of the Tucker model 56:00 The far left is stronger than the far right 59:00 Democrats primary calendar designed to stymie progressives 1:00:00 Impact of South Carolina going first 1:01:30 AOC would clear progressive lane & be formidable in crowded field 1:02:30 Not at all convinced that Jon Ossoff runs in ‘28 1:03:00 Democrats have a type, and Ossoff checks all those boxe

    Full Episode - Record Military Budgets Result In A Lost War + Sizing Up The 2028 Presidential Contenders

  8. 3d ago

    Interview Only w/ Jonathan Martin - Sizing Up The 2028 Presidential Contenders

    Politico politics bureau chief and senior political columnist Jonathan Martin joins the Chuck Toddcast for a reporter's-eye tour of the 2028 landscape, starting from an observation both men keep circling: the governing wing of each party is badly out of step with its own voters. Martin walks through the Democratic field with real granularity. Pete Buttigieg carries genuine Biden baggage and is fundamentally a creature of institutions — he isn't going to burn the house down, which is precisely why the left will never trust his establishment credentials, and why Martin wonders aloud whether his future might be more as an advisor than a candidate. On AOC, Martin's read is that the entire question is simply whether she runs: if she does, she's the lead car in the progressive lane and could clear it outright, and she'd be formidable in a crowded field. He notes it's no accident she reemerged right after El-Sayed's Michigan win, that she's been careful and disciplined about picking her spots during the primaries, and that she more than held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church — which matters enormously given the Democratic calendar was explicitly designed to stymie progressives by putting South Carolina first. Martin isn't at all convinced Jon Ossoff runs, even though Ossoff checks every box on the list of things Democrats have historically wanted, and he thinks Abdul El-Sayed could be a genuinely formidable presidential candidate. The overarching question, as Martin frames it, is whether Democrats vote with their head or their heart in 2028 — a decision the November midterms will shape more than anything else. On the Republican side, they point out Vance simply wasn't a good candidate when he ran for Senate and needed both Trump and Peter Thiel to drag him over the finish line, that Rubio's presidential campaigns always ran into whoever's "turn" it was, and that the fastest way to lose in this environment is to be seen as one of the donor candidates. Vance's real challenge, Martin argues, is the Tucker Carlson model — and the open question of who carries that banner in 2028. He and Chuck agree the far left is currently stronger than the far right within their respective parties, and that insurgencies are a natural feature of the party out of power. Nothing, Martin says flatly, gets better for Republicans between now and the midterms; the Iranians want to humiliate Trump and Jimmy Carter him, and they're timing their moves to the American political calendar. They agree Democrats are either picking up two Senate seats or six with very little in between, and predict Greg Abbott will have to spend real money to win in Texas. Plus: why in-person interviews still beat remote ones, the disappearance of the old guard of Tennessee Republican politics, how Buttigieg's sexuality might factor into a national campaign, why online small-dollar money means Democrats no longer need to court only big donors — and whether UVA can actually contend in football this year.   Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.  For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.  Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Jonathan Martin joins The Chuck ToddCast 01:30 Why in-person interviews are so much better than remote 03:30 The old guard of GOP politics in Tennessee are gone 05:30 The governing wing of each party aren’t agreeing with the voters 06:15 How does Pete Buttigieg navigate carrying “Biden baggage”? 06:45 Pete is a creature of the institutions, he won’t burn down the house 07:30 The left won’t ever trust Pete’s establishment credentials 08:30 How Pete’s sexuality could affect a presidential run 09:30 Is his future more in an advisor role than an elected official? 12:00 If AOC runs in 2028, she’ll be the lead car in the progressive lane 13:30 The question surrounding AOC is “will she or won’t she run” 14:00 The presidential campaign will be shaped by November midterms 14:30 Do the Dems go with their head or their heart in 28? 16:45 Insurgencies happen in this environment for party out of power 18:15 Nothing gets better between now and the midterms for Republicans 19:45 The Iranians want to humiliate Trump and “Jimmy Carter” him 20:45 Besides Vance, Rubio and Youngkin, who else might run for the GOP? 21:30 Who carries the Tucker Carlson banner in ‘28? 23:45 Vance was not a good candidate when he ran for senate 24:30 Vance needed Trump & Peter Thiel to get him over the finish line 25:30 Rubio’s campaigns were challenging the person whose turn it was 26:45 You don’t want to be seen as one of the “donor candidates” 27:30 Vance’s biggest challenge will be of the Tucker model 28:00 The far left is stronger than the far right 31:00 Democrats primary calendar designed to stymie progressives 32:00 Impact of South Carolina going first 33:30 AOC would clear progressive lane & be formidable in crowded field 34:30 Not at all convinced that Jon Ossoff runs in ‘28 35:00 Democrats have a type, and Ossoff checks all those boxes 36:15 Abdul El-Sayed could be formidable as a presidential candidate 37:00 AOC could emerge from South Carolina in a strong position 37:30 AOC held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church 38:15 Not an accident AOC reemerged after El-Sayed’s win 40:15 AOC has been smart and careful to pick her spots during primaries 41:30 What will keep prominent Dems from running? 42:00 There’s lots of Dem donor money online, don’t need only big $ donors 43:30 Dems are either picking up two senate seats… or six 44:30 How cemented is the red/blue map? 47:00 Kansas could be ‘06 Indiana but Dem hasn’t won senate seat since 30s 48:15 Voters don’t like the public school funding cuts for vouchers 49:30 Greg Abbott will have to spend big to win his race 50:00 Will UVA be a contender in football? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Interview Only w/ Jonathan Martin - Sizing Up The 2028 Presidential Contenders
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The Chuck ToddCast is back! If you're looking for smart, no-nonsense political conversation, you've come to the right place. The Chuck ToddCast goes beyond the headlines, featuring conversations with top reporters, insiders, and newsmakers from D.C. to the heartland. No scripts, no spin—just real discussions about what’s shaping our politics and why it matters.

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