The Writ Podcast Éric Grenier

A byelection call looms in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun in a contest that could prove a stiff test for the Liberals, as the NDP and Bloc target what has been a safe Liberal seat in Montreal. Plus, another call could come in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood–Transcona, where the Conservatives will put the NDP on the defensive.
(Note: the Liberals announced their candidate for Elmwood–Transcona shortly after we recorded.)
This week, we also chat about the announcements from Seamus O'Regan and Francis Drouin that they won't be running for re-election and answer listener questions from the mailbag — and provide a Margin of Error 101 refresher course. Then, Philippe tests me with a Quiz.
To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.
A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!
As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!
Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres
Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres


This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that gauges just how recognizable Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and other party leaders and top figures in the Liberal Party really are to Canadians. We also chat about the latest federal numbers, the ubiquitous Mark Carney rumours, the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection and provincial polling out of British Columbia and Ontario.
In the mailbag, we answer a question about whether or not we can calculate the odds of big swings happening in future elections. Then, Philippe is put to the test with an impromptu Quiz.
Regular episodes of The Writ Podcast will be returning soon!
To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.
As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!
Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres
Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres


This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

As we wait to return from our break, we're back this week with an extended mailbag episode to answer listener questions, including:
* Is it better to have an election in the summer or the winter?
* Are the Liberals still the "natural governing party"?
* Which past party leader who lost an election might have had a better shot at a different time?
* Plus answers to questions on projection models, polling methods and more!
This episode was recorded on July 3. We'll be back with a regular episode next week!
To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.
As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!
Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres
Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres


This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The Toronto–St. Paul’s byelection ensured that this political summer would be a hot one, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces serious dissent within his caucus for perhaps the first time since becoming leader in 2013. What does this summer have in store for him and his Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives?
To break it all down, I’m joined again by (most of) the pollster panel.
Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.
Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.
Unfortunately, James Valcke was unable to join us this week.
THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we discuss the latest national poll numbers and new developments within the Liberal Party — what does it mean for Justin Trudeau's future? We also chat about where things stand in Ontario and whether an early election call poses any risk to Doug Ford's polling lead. In the mailbag, we guess at who is more likely to step aside — Biden or Trudeau — as well as what to watch in the upcoming LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection. Finally, we close with a Quiz on the 1997 federal election.
In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.


This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss what happened in the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. We also chat about Naheed Nenshi's landslide win in the Alberta NDP leadership race and provincial premiers' approval ratings.
For the mailbag, we discuss whether Toronto–St. Paul’s was a one-off or not (and we have many more byelection-related questions in the members-only extended mailbag). Then, Philippe harkens back to the 2006 election for the Quiz.
To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.
A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!
As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!
Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres
Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres
LES CHIFFRES: Est-ce la fin de l’ère Trudeau ? Éric et Philippe discutent de l'élection partielle dans Toronto–St. Paul's lundi dernier, qui fut une cuisante défaite du PLC dans ce qui était considéré comme un château fort libéral depuis trois décennies. Avec de tels résultats, Justin Trudeau peut-il rester en poste ? A-t-il encore la légitimité pour gouverner ? Que nous disent ces chiffres sur l'avance conservatrice au pays ? Et à quoi devrions-nous nous attendre de l'élection partielle à venir dans Lasalle–Émard–Verdun ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.


This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

With the high-stakes byelection in Toronto–St. Paul’s on Monday, I invited David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data, to come back on the podcast to do another polling deep-dive — this time on on where things stand in Toronto and beyond.
Armed with reams of polling data, we take a look at Battleground Toronto, as well as Justin Trudeau’s standing among various demographic groups across the country as speculation about the future of his leadership continues. We also compare where the polls stand, 16 months out from the next election, to where polls stood at this point in the calendar before the 2015, 2019 and 2021 campaigns.
THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we discuss the set of polls that suggest (as expected) that the Liberals are not in the midst of a comeback — quite the opposite. We also make our over/under bets on Monday's Toronto–St. Paul's byelection. Will the Conservatives pull off an upset? Then, we chat about the results of the Tuxedo byelection in Manitoba and a new poll out of British Columbia. We answer questions from the mailbag (could we be replaced by AI?) and Philippe has a tough quiz for me.
In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.


This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe