Inside Prediction Markets

Prediction Market Gurus
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Every week, join two of the world's sharpest bettors and minds, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes, as they discuss everything about betting and prediction markets. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 📈 Market Deep Dives 🎙️ Expert Guests 🧠 Strategy Analysis This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

  1. VOR 4 TAGEN

    The Insider's Guide to Market Making on Prediction Markets

    What actually is market making? If you've ever asked yourself that question, this is the episode for you.FanDuel and DraftKings just announced they're market making on prediction markets. Then Kalshi dropped numbers showing over 30% of their volume is now in combos — primarily sports parlays. Chris and Henry break down what it all means, whether sportsbooks actually have the capability to book sharp flow or whether they've just never been tested, and why price discovery on prediction markets might quietly be forcing a fairer game for everyone.Chris and Henry cover the full picture: how market makers make money, why it's harder than it looks, the difference between a market maker and a sharp, why you could be trading against Joe from the deli and not even know it, and what it actually takes to level up in a zero sum game where the sportsbook model would just kick you out. One of the more educational episodes the show has done — and a good one to send to anyone who keeps asking you to explain what you do.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – FanDuel and DraftKings Enter Market Making3:00 – Can Sportsbooks Actually Book Sharp Flow?5:00 – What Is Market Making?10:00 – How Market Makers Earn16:00 – The Difference Between a Market Maker and a Sharp22:00 – Are You Really Betting Against Joe from the Deli?30:00 – Are Prediction Markets Peer to Peer?#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

    33 Min.

  2. 6. MAI

    Big Prediction Market Ghost Orders Scandal and How One Market Maker Beats Every Exchange

    Polymarket had a rough week — and Chris and Henry break down both stories. First: ghost orders Then: their CMO was caught on a live stream nearly whispering something to a popular streamer before realizing he was on camera — a clip that went viral for all the wrong reasons. Also, Max Shen-Molesky of Coinflip Capital joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Max has quietly become one of the most dominant liquidity providers on prediction markets today — in both crypto binaries and sports. He breaks down his thesis that every market is effectively the same if you understand order books, how he made most of his early sports PNL in the first two months with zero competition, the wildest manipulation story you'll hear this year, and the most expensive bugs that have cost him. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now. @insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry. Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewform This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal. Chapters: 0:00 – Ghost Orders 2:00 – PM CMO Caught on Live Stream 4:20 – PM Oracle Contraversy 7:40 – Max Shen-Molesky Joins the Show 15:00 – Where Max Makes His Money 18:30 – Can You Manipulate Crypto Binary Markets? 24:00 – Why Every Market Is the Same 35:00 – The Strategy That Keeps Winning 51:00 – Most Expensive Mistake #predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

    55 Min.

  3. 29. APR.

    The Maduro Insider Trading Scandal and Shipper on How Sharps Actually Win

    A U.S. soldier was just prosecuted by the DOJ for betting $400,000 on a prediction market using classified military intelligence about the Maduro situation — and Chris and Henry break down why this is actually a landmark moment for the space. It wasn't done on a CFTC-regulated platform, but it still matters: the system is starting to work, Trump is calling the world a casino, and the CFTC commissioner is putting more regulation on the table. Then Shipper (@Ship_the_Justice) joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. He's one of the most respected minds in sports betting Twitter and brings a rare perspective — someone who has sat on both sides of the market. The conversation covers how he thinks about information sharing, what it was like switching from bookmaker to bettor and how sharps like him are actually approaching prediction markets right now. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now. @insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry. Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewform This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal. Chapters: 0:00 – The Soldier Who Bet $400K on Maduro 2:30 – Trump Calls the World a Casino 3:00 – A Major Platform Lobbies the CFTC 5:05 – Introducing Shipper (@Ship_the_Justice) 6:00 – From New Zealand Bookmaker to Full-Time Sharp Bettor 14:00 – Getting Picked Off on Injury News 20:00 – How Sharps Are Approaching Prediction Markets 28:00 – The Viral Half Million Contract Order 38:00 – How Much of His PNL Is on PMs 48:27 – The Most Expensive Lesson Shipper Has Learned #predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

    49 Min.

  4. 22. APR.

    The Insider's Guide to Getting Hired at a Prediction Market

    Chris and Henry pull back the curtain on what it actually takes to get hired at a prediction market company. They start with their own stories — how Chris reached out cold and created his own role, how Henry cold-emailed a cover letter and got hired by pitching a vision the company didn't even know it needed yet — and why both paths have one thing in common: initiative.From there it's a full insider breakdown: the org chart of a prediction market company, what each department actually looks for, the honest truth about originators (most people who think they are one, aren't), what makes a great trader vs. a great engineer in this space, and why dev relations might be the most underrated open door in the entire industry right now.The second half is a live mock interview — Henry puts Chris in the hot seat with real questions he uses to evaluate trading candidates, walking through position sizing, adverse selection, tick width, and how to think about the relationship between a market maker and an exchange. If you're trying to break into prediction markets, this is the episode.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – How Chris Got His Job at Novig3:40 – How Henry Got His Job at Novig6:30 – The #1 Piece of Advice for Breaking In8:50 – The Org Chart Explained14:00 – What Engineers Need to Know22:35 – The Hard Truth About Originators26:50 – What Is a Trader, Actually?28:35 – The Mock Interview38:29 – Position Sizing and Adverse Selection46:42 – Novig Is Hiring#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

    48 Min.

  5. 15. APR.

    Ohio Is Trying to Kill Sports Betting + Harry Crane on the Fascinating Kelly Criterion Debate

    Ohio just introduced a bill that would effectively kill online sports betting in the state. Chris and Henry break down why it's unlikely to pass but why it matters, plus a tease of what looks like perpetual contracts coming to a major prediction market platform, and a look at Chris's Substack deep dive into his journey as a professional gambler. Then Harry Crane joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Harry is a statistics professor at Rutgers, a member of the CFTC Innovation Committee, and one of the sharper minds at the intersection of academic probability theory and real-world prediction markets. The conversation gets into his path from poker to sports betting to prediction market research, what it's like being a bettor with a seat at the regulatory table, and a genuinely fascinating deep dive into Kelly Criterion — when to use it, when it breaks down, the case for half Kelly vs. full Kelly, and what a $3 million drawdown actually teaches you about your own edge. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now. @insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry. Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewform Chapters: 0:00 – Ohio's Bill to Kill Sports Betting 1:12 – Perps Coming to Kalshi? 3:12 – Chris's Substack on his Journey 4:51 – Introducing Harry Crane: CFTC Committee Member 6:45 – Harry's Scoop on Election Markets and 538 14:00 – Having a Seat at the CFTC Table 19:00 – Are Sharp Bettors Losing Faith in Prediction Markets? 26:00 – The Full Kelly vs. Half Kelly Debate 35:00 – What a $3M Drawdown Teaches You 43:00 – Card Counting, Kelly, and the Conditional Fill Problem This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal. #predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

    47 Min.

  6. 8. APR.

    How To Bet The Masters + Novig Is Giving Away 500K

    Novig is at The Masters — LIV golfers including Jon Rahm and Cam Smith are wearing the Novig patch, and the Blue Blazer Jackpot is live on the app. Enter once per day by trading on the tournament winner, and if your pick wins you share a $500K Novig Cash prize pool. One winner also takes home the first-ever Novig Blue Blazer delivered in person by a LIV player. Visit augusta.novig.com to track entries and find your angle.Then Chris and Henry break down the week's big three: a court ruling in favor of prediction markets over New Jersey's attempt to block sports contracts, the one platform that just introduced fees after years of zero-cost trading, and what that actually means for the space. Then Golden Pants himself — John Shilling of Risk Takers — joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat to break down how to actually bet The Masters, from course characteristics and field analysis to how prediction markets have completely changed the golf betting lifecycle.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets [5:17 PM]OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – Novig's $500K Blue Blazer Jackpot1:42 – Courts Rule in Favor of Prediction Markets Over New Jersey3:20 – A Major Platform Added Fees5:08 – Optic Odds: The Tech Stack Behind the Space7:29 – Introducing Golden Pants: John Schilling in the Hot Seat8:37 – What Makes Augusta Unlike Any Other Course22:43 – Golf Betting's Evolution in the Prediction Markets Era27:54 – Most Live Golf Volume Is Fake?31:32 – How Golden Pants Operates Across Every Sport35:25 – How His Trading Software Actually Works44:07 – What Should Change About Tick Size53:32 – Golden Pants' Most Expensive Mistake#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

    58 Min.

  7. 1. APR.

    The NFL Just Put Prediction Markets on Notice: A Potential Victory For All?

    The NFL just asked prediction markets to stop listing easily manipulated outcomes — draft picks, announcer mentions, attendance markets — and Chris and Henry think it's actually a good thing. Then: DraftKings is quietly building an AI casino product nobody asked for, and Kalshi just filed to offer margin trading. All three stories before they sit down with Jake (@jbets212121), a former accountant who walked away from a stable career less than a year ago to go full time in prediction markets.Jake gets into how he built his operation from scratch — starting with paper hat work and live betting, pivoting to RFQs, and building out a fully functional quoting system in ten days with his developer partner. The conversation covers how he thinks about adverse selection, the top-down vs. origination debate, white labeling as a business model, maker vs. taker fee structures, and what it actually cost him to learn some of his biggest lessons — including a brutal opening day of baseball where flipped spreads and totals nearly wiped out everything he'd built. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now. @insidepredictionmarkets This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal. Chapters: 0:00 – NFL Sets Boundaries on Prediction Markets 2:48 – DraftKings Replay: The Product No One Asked For 5:30 – Kalshi Applies for Margin Trading: What It Actually Means 6:41 – Introducing Jake (@jbets212121) 7:10 – How To Go From Accountant to Professional Gambler 13:38 – Building a Quoting System in 10 Days 18:20 – Top Down vs. Origination: The Crossroads Decision 21:03 – Should Exchanges Stay Maker Friendly? 28:48 – What If Straight Markets Traded via RFQ? 33:47 – The Most Expensive Mistake He's Ever Made #predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

    38 Min.

  8. 25. MÄRZ

    Arizona Just Filed Criminal Charges Against a Prediction Market

    A state just filed criminal charges against a prediction market for the first time in U.S. history — and that's just where this week starts. Chris and Henry break down Arizona's lawsuit, what it means legally, and why sportsbooks may be quietly pulling the strings. Then: the Polymarket Situation Room's rocky launch, the Schiff-Curtis bill to ban sports markets, AOC piling on, and why a $50 billion industry isn't going anywhere on vibes alone.Then the guys sit down with Egzee — one of the largest individual market makers in Prediction Markets and the most talked-about intern in prediction markets history. He breaks down how he got started flipping cards in MLB The Show, spotted the same mechanics on election night, and built it into a serious operation — plus the creator ID debate, the originating vs. top-down argument, and what it really takes to survive as competition heats up.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting Chapters:0:00 – Arizona Sues a Prediction Market2:00 – The Polymarket Situation Room3:00 – The Bill That Could Kill Sports Betting on Prediction Markets9:05 - Egzee Joins the Show9:35 – How a Video Game Led to Making Generational Money11:50 – Egzee's BIG EDGE15:00 – Origination is Overrated18:25 – The Creator ID Debate23:30 – Are Sharp Takers Slowly Killing the Ecosystem?

    38 Min.
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Every week, join two of the world's sharpest bettors and minds, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes, as they discuss everything about betting and prediction markets. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 📈 Market Deep Dives 🎙️ Expert Guests 🧠 Strategy Analysis This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

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  • Erstellt von
    Prediction Market Gurus
  • Jahre aktiv
    2026
  • Folgen
    13
  • Bewertung
    Anstößig
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    © Prediction Market Gurus
  • Sendungswebsite
    Inside Prediction Markets

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