Prediction Market Movers

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Each week, Chris Gerlacher talks to industry insiders, financial analysts and legal experts on all of the latest developments in prediction markets.

  1. VOR 8 STD.

    Flip Pidot on Political Markets, Bias & Smart Money | Prediction Market Movers

    Prediction Market Movers welcomes the Co-founder and CEO of American Civics Exchange Flip Pidot for a deep dive into prediction market efficiency, emotional trading, political forecasting, and the future of derivatives built on top of prediction markets. Chris Gerlacher and Flip discuss how markets process information, why emotional bias creates persistent mispricing, and what separates accurate forecasting from simple market calibration. Chris and Flip break down insider trading concerns in prediction markets, institutional adoption, settlement controversies, and how regulators may approach the rapidly growing prediction market industry over the next several years. The conversation also covers how smart traders identify irrational pricing in highly emotional political markets. The interview finishes with Flip discussing American Civics Exchange, the first US-based commercial market for political futures.   👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - What makes a market efficient 4:30 - Eliminating friction in the market 7:30 - Emotional bias in the market 12:50 - PredictIt in 2025 17:25 - Duplicate markets and trader limits 20:50 - No action relief/insider trading 34:00 - timeline of investigating insider trading 42:55 - Derivatives layers on prediction markets 53:00 - Market resolution process 59:00 What is American Civics Exchange?

    1 Std. 8 Min.

  2. VOR 6 TAGEN

    FutureSearch CEO Dan Schwarz on AI Forecasting & Prediction Markets | Prediction Market Movers

    Prediction Market Movers is back with Dan Schwarz, CEO and co-founder of FutureSearch, to break down the future of AI forecasting, prediction markets, and the science behind writing high-quality prediction market questions. Chris Gerlacher and Dan Schwarz discuss how platforms like PolyMarket and Kalshi handle market resolution, why poorly written prediction market questions create controversy, and how traders, policymakers, and institutions all use prediction markets differently. They also explore geopolitical forecasting, AI prediction systems, market liquidity, forecasting probabilities, and the role of prediction markets in understanding events like Iran, Venezuela, Taiwan, pandemics, and AI development. Dan explains how FutureSearch uses AI agents to research forecasting questions, compare probabilities against prediction market odds, and identify potential pricing inefficiencies across markets. The conversation also covers AGI forecasting, forecasting accuracy, and how AI forecasting tools could rival human prediction markets. 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - Curating Prediction Market questions 5:00 - Who to trust with the questions 6:15 - Making a market 8:00 - Specificity of prediction markets and AI 9:30 - What makes an interesting question? 11:00 - Prediction Markets falling short 12:00 - Circulating new questions 14:15 - The importance of market resolving 19:00 - Percentages in markets are dependent on the audience 21:20 - What is Future Search? 23:50 - Future Search features 26:00 - How would a sports bettor look at Future Search? 28:15 - What does a mature PM industry look like in the future? 34:00 - Goodbye #PredictionMarkets #PolyMarket #Kalshi #AI #Forecasting #FutureSearch #ArtificialIntelligence #Crypto #PredictionNews #AGI #Metaculous #ElectionForecasting #Geopolitics #MachineLearning #Trading 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

    35 Min.

  3. 22. APR.

    Inside Crypto Prediction Markets with Henry Lau | Prediction Market Movers

    Welcome back to Prediction Market Movers. Chris Gerlacher sits down with Skywalk Founder Henry Lau to break down the current state of crypto prediction markets, including what’s changed over the past six months, what’s working, and what hasn’t materialized. This episode dives into the rapid growth and saturation of the prediction market space, where over 150 platforms exist but only a fraction generate meaningful volume. Henry explains why distribution, liquidity, and go-to-market strategy are critical for survival in an increasingly competitive landscape. They also explore the role of KYC requirements in crypto, how friction impacts user onboarding, and the divide between institutional adoption and crypto-native users. The conversation covers how prediction markets are evolving beyond their original vision, including the shift toward sports trading and emerging use cases like MetaDAO and futarchy-driven decision-making. #PredictionMarkets #Crypto #Web3 #PolyMarket #Calshi #Blockchain #DeFi #CryptoTrading #Finance #MarketAnalysis #Investing #Trading #Web3News #CryptoNews #PredictionMarketMovers 00:00 - Intro 1:00 - Saturation in prediction markets? 3:00 - KYC requirements 8:30 - Polymarket token launch 11:15 - On chain liquidity 15:00 - User generated markets 19:45 - Newcomers in the crypto sectors 27:50 - Building avoiding traps 31:45 - Skywalk update 35:45 - Final thoughts   👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

    38 Min.

  4. 8. APR.

    Sports Betting vs Prediction Markets w/ Isaac Rose-Berman | Prediction Market Movers

    In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Isaac Rose-Berman of the American Institute for Boys and Men to break down the real-world impact of sports betting and prediction markets. From beating sportsbooks to market making on exchanges like Kalshi, Isaac shares what actually separates profitable bettors from the rest—and why prediction markets are a completely different game. The conversation dives deep into: The transition from sports betting to market making How prediction market structure impacts profitability The rise of gambling among younger audiences Policy concerns around advertising, iGaming, and regulation The blurred line between investing and gambling Why most traders lose—and what people misunderstand about the industry  👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com   00:00 - Intro 1:00 - Pivoting from sports betting to market making 4:20 - Moving into policy 5:50 - What was missing in sports? 7:15 - Why AIBM? 8:35 - Misconceptions of AIBM 9:35 - Policy priorities at AIBM 11:35 - Confronting Kalshi ads 13:30 - Educating the youth on Prediction Markets 16:30 - The impact of Kalshi losing sports contracts 19:45 - Reception from the youth on PMs and market making 25:00 - What is Finance Land missing? 30:20 - Navigating cannibalism rates 32:00 - Difference in customer base with PMs 34:00 - The importance of keeping sports #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #Kalshi #GamblingPolicy #TradingStrategy #Fintech #BettingTips #MarketMaking #PredictionMarketMovers

    36 Min.

  5. 1. APR.

    Inside Prediction Market Data Engineering & Market Matching w/ Shay Patel | Prediction Market Movers

    In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Shay Patel to break down how Delphi Markets is building the data infrastructure layer for prediction markets. While most of the industry focuses on exchanges, this conversation dives into what happens behind the scenes — how fragmented APIs, messy data, and cross-exchange inefficiencies are creating opportunities for traders, funds, and institutions. Shay explains how Delphi Markets aggregates and standardizes data across multiple platforms, enabling smarter trading, better forecasting, and entirely new use cases for prediction market data. What You’ll Learn: • How Delphi Markets built a unified API across multiple exchanges • Cross-exchange market matching and resolution risk • Smart order routing to get the best price across platforms • Wallet analytics and detecting suspicious/insider activity • The role of RFQ data and parlay pricing insights • Why AI trading bots are overhyped in prediction markets • The long-term outlook for prediction markets heading into 2028 00:00 - Intro 1:00 - How Shay got involved in Delphi Markets 2:50 - Picking prediction markets 4:15 - On the lack of infrastructure 5:25 - What is Delphi Markets? 6:30- Creating a unified API 7:30 - Resolution risks 8:00 - Explaining market matching and RFQ systems 9:20 - The impact of wallet analytics 10:30 - Detecting suspicious trades 13:30 - Smart order routing 17:00 - Is AI trading good? 18:15 - Prediction Markets depend on 2028 election #PredictionMarkets #DelphiMarkets #DataInfrastructure #EventContracts #PredictionMarketMovers #Polymarket #Kalshi #QuantTrading #MarketData #SportsTrading #AITrading #forecasting 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

    23 Min.

  6. 11. MÄRZ

    From Manifold to MNX: Stephen Grugett’s Big Bet on AI Markets | Prediction Market Movers

    On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher speaks with Stephen Grugett, founder of MNX and co-founder of Manifold Markets, about the evolution from play-money forecasting platforms to real-money AI-focused derivatives markets. MNX is building infrastructure for trading AI-native markets — including company valuation contracts, benchmark performance markets, and perpetual futures tied to the artificial intelligence economy. In this conversation, Stephen Grugett explains: • Why Manifold originally chose play-money markets over crypto • The limitations of traditional yes/no prediction markets • How AI company valuation markets could function • What perpetual futures (“perps”) are and why they matter • The mechanics behind synthetic derivatives and open interest • Infrastructure decisions, including Ethereum Layer 2 deployment • Regulatory considerations for offshore vs U.S. launch • How MNX differs from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket   👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com #PredictionMarkets #AI #Crypto #MNX #Manifold #PerpetualFutures #OpenAI #Anthropic #Fintech #Web3 #Derivatives #ArtificialIntelligence #MarketInnovation

    26 Min.

  7. 26. FEB.

    Trading Trump's words, with Tyrael, a mention market trader | Prediction Market Movers

    In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with full-time mention market trader Tyrael, who has found much success in mention market trading — including a very profitable night during the State of the Union address. Tyrael breaks down exactly how he approaches volatile mention markets tied to figures like Donald Trump, JD Vance, Gavin Newsom, and Zohran Mamdani — and why speech-based contracts can be some of the most mispriced markets in the prediction space. Tyrael explains how he combines historical transcript frequency data with real-time geopolitical developments to price words before they’re spoken. He walks through the difference between scripted language and “weave” improvisation, how that affects probabilities, and why certain words like “Sleepy Joe” were clear fades during a formal address. The conversation also dives into: • How he handicaps State of the Union mention markets • The ethics of insider trading in prediction markets • Pre-recorded interview leak risk and adverse selection • “Rule cucks” and controversial resolutions on Kalshi and Polymarket • Why some mention markets (late night shows, TV tapings) may not belong on exchanges at all   Tyrael also shares how he transitioned into trading full-time, lessons from early losses (including a conviction bet on Josh Shapiro as VP), and how he balances high-intensity live event trading with family life. 00:00 - Intro 1:00 - Winning big during the State of the Union 3:00 - Trading on politics 4:30- On mentions markets 7:00 - Why mention markets? 9:30 - How long did it take to become a job? 12:00 - Balancing being a dad and a trader 14:50 - Managing information leaks 17:00 - Insider trading vs. sharp trading 19:50 - Navigating “pump schemes” 24:00 - improvements in market resolutions 27:00 - Which mention markets have value? For more for info on Tyrael, check him out on X - @ØxTyrael #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Polymarket #PoliticalTrading #EventContracts #ElectionMarkets #StateOfTheUnion #DonaldTrump #Midterms #CFTC #CryptoPredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers   👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

    29 Min.

  8. 19. FEB.

    Alex Kane on CFTC Approval, Market Makers, Handle Taxes & Market Needs | Prediction Market Movers

    In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Sporttrade CEO Alex Kane explains why the company has officially applied for federal approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to become both a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO). Instead of operating under 38 different state sports betting laws, Sporttrade wants to move to a single federal framework. Alex explains why the exchange model struggles under state tax structures, and why federal regulation may allow more innovation, better pricing, and stronger liquidity. We also discuss: • The difference between sportsbooks and exchanges • Why algorithmic and corporate trading are restricted in many states • How broker partnerships could expand access • What “high-quality liquidity” really means • How Sporttrade plans to compete with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket #PredictionMarkets #Sporttrade #CFTC #Kalshi #Polymarket #SportsBetting #DCM #DCO 00:00 - Intro 1:00 - Challenges with regulators 7:00 - On handle taxes 12:00 - What makes Sporttrade different? 15:00 - CFTC and DCM applications vs State license 25:45 - Potential new customers if granted DMC license 28:40 - How are you improving the status quo? 32:00 - Quality of liquidity 37:40 - Benefits of broker partnerships 40:45 - Market needs for traders in the PM industry

    48 Min.
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Each week, Chris Gerlacher talks to industry insiders, financial analysts and legal experts on all of the latest developments in prediction markets.

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  • Erstellt von
    Prediction News
  • Jahre aktiv
    2025 - 2026
  • Folgen
    26
  • Bewertung
    Unbedenklich
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    © Prediction News
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    Prediction Market Movers

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