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MATEMÁTICAS

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life

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Numbers of the year 2026

From record-breaking passenger numbers, to some more record-breaking numbers - courtesy of the Men’s football World Cup. We look forward to what 2026 might have in store for us - numerically of course. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
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Numbers of the year 2025

From the number of women in space and transistors on a chip to social media usage -we’re taking a look back the key numerical moments of 2025. We explore the woes of a big infrastructure projects. Plus, just how can you make sure your New Year’s Resolutions are successful? We’ve got statistics to help. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeil Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

28 min
27/12/2025

Numbers of the year 2025

We look back at some stand out numbers of 2025. How significant were Trump’s import tariffs? China sets the pace for solar power installation across the globe. We also look upwards to a particularly speedy comet - 3i Atlas. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
24/12/2025

Were there really Three Wise Men?

The surprising things we learn when we count everyone - a tour of the UK census through time. We also figure out just how many parking officers there are versus soldiers in the British army. Who really does all the housework? Plus - 20 years of ‘Freakonomics’ with Stephen Dubner. And finally - were there really three wise men who visited baby Jesus? And were they kings as the Christmas hymn would lead us to believe? Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeil Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Nathan Gower and Katie Solleveld Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

28 min
20/12/2025

The shocking world of US health costs

A loyal listener wrote in to question this claim made by neuroscientist Dr Daniel Levitin: "Here in the US valium in a pharmacy might be $3 that same pill in a hospital setting might be $750." Our listener was shocked at how one pill can cost 250 x more in a hospital setting than in a pharmacy. But can it? Sort of. We turned to Elisabeth Rosenthal to take us on a dive into the frankly shocking world of US Health costs. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

9 min
17/12/2025

Do we really have ‘superflu’?

The NHS is warning of an unprecedented flu season - we check what the numbers say. Is there really a mass exodus of Brits leaving the UK due to Labour tax policies? We look at the latest emigration figures. We take a look at the prison service’s curious habit of letting prisoners out early – or keeping them in for too long - is there a trend? Plus - why the US economy can’t grow at 25 percent a year. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Nathan Gower Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Katie Solleveld, Lizzy McNeill and Tom Colls. Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

29 min
13/12/2025

RCP 8.5: Why did the climate change model get it wrong?

Whether we like it or not, global warming is happening. The global temperature has already gone up, and it’s going to go up more, because the atmosphere is already full of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and we’re continuing to add to that stock. Quite how much it will increase by is a very important question for all of us. Until relatively recently, during much of the 2010s and into the 2020s, many scientists claimed that if we kept on going down the path we were on, if we just kept on with business as usual, then by the end of the century global temperatures would increase by almost five degrees centigrade. This projection was based on something called RCP 8.5, a statistical scenario used by scientists to model the future of the climate. You can still find scientific papers published in 2025 that make the same claim. However, there’s a good case that RCP 8.5 should never have been used as the business-as-usual scenario. And in hindsight it doesn’t look like an accurate vision of the future at all. So what’s going on? Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and the climate research lead at Stripe, explains the argument. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Donald MacDonald Editor: Richard Vadon

9 min
06/12/2025

Is RFK right about US sperm counts?

Around the world, many countries are concerned about tackling the decline in birth rates and total fertility rates. The US is no exception. To tackle this issue the US government announced that it would provide subsidies for Americans seeking IVF treatment. The announcement was accompanied by one suspect sounding stat from US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. "Today the average teenager in this country has 50% of the sperm count, 50% of the testosterone as a 65-year-old man," he said. We speak to Professor Allan Pacey, Professor of Andrology at the University of Manchester, and Adith Arun, a researcher at Yale University to find out whether this statement is accurate. Producer/Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Mix: James Beard

9 min

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