Trade with Conviction

Sparta

In-depth analysis of current trends and future expectations for different segments of the oil market, with a focus on understanding both the supply and demand dynamics at play.

  1. vor 4 Tagen

    Episode 109: Kirishi's hit, Hormuz is live again: diesel has nowhere left to hide

    Felipe Elink Schuurman, Abhishek Kumar, Michael Ryan and Jay Maroo cover the Iran-US escalation and Kirishi refinery strike, then break down a diesel market pulling barrels from Singapore to Houston, a gasoline barge spike to $2.90, TC14 freight jumping 45 points, and three fresh crude trade ideas. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast Chapters:  (00:39) Geopolitics: Iran strikes back, Russia's refineries burn US hits Iran, Iran strikes Saudi VLCCs, Kirishi refinery shut, Russia now imports diesel, gasoline and jet. (04:55) Middle distillates: Rotterdam pulls barrels from everywhere Diesel ARBs open from Yanbu to Singapore, a rare Korean MR heads to Rotterdam as Europe scrambles. (17:25) Jet and freight: TC14 jumps 45 points in a day Jet underperforms diesel on rising Asian exports while owners chase the diesel ARB, spiking US Gulf freight. (19:46) Gasoline: barges spike to 290, Houston flips cheapest European barges surge after a shaky start, Houston beats Singapore to West Coast Mexico for the first time. (35:00) Crude and trade ideas: Mars over WTI, Dubai backwardation Dubai tightness signals supply risk, not demand, Jay's three trades bet on east-west and sweet-sour spreads.

  2. 28. Aug.

    Episode 108: Iran and Oman talk peace. A tanker gets hit anyway.

    Jay Maroo hosts Aaron Kildow and Nikolas Plonski as Hormuz de-escalation talk collides with a fresh tanker strike. Aaron unpacks the US SPR's final barrels and a collapsing TI-Brent spread, while Nikolas breaks down gasoline RINs volatility and a blown-out diesel east-west spread. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast Chapters: (00:42) Geopolitics: Hormuz thaw meets sanctions and a tanker strike Oman-Iran deal signals de-escalation but OFAC sanctions widen and a Kuwaiti tanker gets struck. (05:10) US crude: SPR nearly dry, wrong barrels at the wrong time Only 9-10 million SPR barrels remain, mostly sweet, just as diesel season needs sour crude. (12:36) Hormuz hypothetical: what a reopening does to market share Japan and Korea's shift to US crude signals a lasting market share battle if Hormuz reopens. (18:23) Fuel oil and gasoline: feedstock squeeze, RINs whipsaw Venezuelan barrels weigh on Atlantic HSFO while EPA's RIN waiver rumours rattle the gasoline TAR. (28:14) Diesel's east-west spread blows out to minus $90 Chinese buying may be behind the widest east-west diesel spread on record, hinting at a demand shift.

  3. 21. Aug.

    Episode 107: Diesel cracks blow past 100$. Dirty freight surging.

    Felipe Elink Schuurman is joined by James Noel-Beswick and Michael Ryan as Trump threatens Oman and squeezes Iran's UAE-run cash flows. Russian refinery strikes cut runs to a 24-year low, driving diesel cracks past $100 a barrel, while European freight rates collapse to six-month lows. Chapters: (01:28) Hormuz standoff and Trump's threats to Oman Trump threatens crushing sanctions and to bomb Oman as Iran's crude flows keep diversifying away from the strait. (07:27) Crude freight: Suezmax and VLCC rates skyrocket Suezmax and VLCC rates surge as owners chase Red Sea and India demand, squeezing Atlantic tonnage. (09:12) Russia's refinery crisis and diesel's record breakout Drone strikes cut Russian runs to a 24-year low as diesel cracks and spreads hit record highs. (14:02) Diesel flows: Latin America pulls barrels, Europe freight collapses US diesel barrels head to Brazil replacing lost Russian supply, while European MR freight hits six-month lows. (24:02) Gasoline and naphtha: all-time highs meet a pause TAA arb collapses and TC2 freight halves as gasoline touches record cracks and naphtha arbs stay shut. (31:02) Macro: dollar weakness fuels the commodity hedge trade A six-month dollar low points to macro funds buying commodities as an inflation and currency hedge.

  4. 13. Aug.

    Episode 106: Iran goes on the offensive. ADNOC's great milk run keeps flowing.

    June Goh hosts this week with guest Jay Maroo, as Iran hardens its military stance and Hormuz risk lingers. They cover IEA and OPEC's diverging demand calls, ADNOC's transponder-dark shuttle tankers beating the blockade, a stubbornly wide Brent-Dubai EFS, and a tightening Atlantic diesel market. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast   Chapters:    (00:42) Hormuz and Russia: sanctions escalate Two vessel attacks near Hormuz, Iran's military turns hawkish, and a Senate bill threatens 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers. (04:20) IEA vs OPEC: the demand gap IEA turns more bearish on demand while OPEC stays positive, a 2.2 million barrel a day gap. (08:29) The great milk run: ADNOC beats the blockade ADNOC's dark shuttle tankers push UAE output above pre-war levels while Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi stay shut in. (11:20) Fuel oil and crude: the tightening squeeze Singapore fuel oil stays trapped in a tightening loop, ADNOC's tender drops a grade, and WAF premiums look shaky. (17:04) Middle distillates: refinery outages bite Refinery outages tighten Atlantic diesel further, yet Sikka's jet arb into Europe stays wide open. (21:22) Light ends: EBOB strength spreads west Low Rhine water lifts EBOB, US Gulf gasoline exports swell, and Singapore mogas turns bullish for September.

  5. 6. Aug.

    Episode 105: Hormuz flips again and gasoline cracks get smashed

    June Goh hosts Neil Crosby and Abhishek Kumar as Hormuz talks flip on and off again, smashing gasoline cracks. They cover Iranian tanker pileups, China's bigger export quotas, Russian diesel exemptions, Murban futures' wind-down, and a bullish fuel oil case into September. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast Chapters:  (00:43) Hormuz headlines: the on-off deal traders can't trade Iranian tankers pile up, Houthis strike again, and the binary Hormuz signal looks set to drag past the midterms. (08:21) EIA and China's quota puzzle US crude exports crash from 5.5m to 3.5m b/d as China lifts August export quotas, but quotas aren't shipments. (15:00) Gasoline cracks get smashed EBOB and RBOB spreads unwind hard on fading Hormuz risk and stabilising US stocks. Still no clean trade here. (22:21) Distillates and jet split east and west Asian gas oil rally stalls as China supply returns, while European diesel stays deep in deficit on Russian export curbs. (29:46) Crude quickfire: Murban futures die, Aramco cuts OSPs Ice Murban winds down, Aramco trims Arab Light 50 cents, and West African crude wins on Hormuz avoidance. (33:17)* Fuel oil: the Cape reroute bites Thirty extra days round the Cape means lower runs and less residue, a bullish setup for 0.5% sulfur into September.

  6. 30. Juli

    Episode 104: Brent whipsaws and USGC 3:2:1 margins explode. The diesel crisis behind it

    June Goh hosts Abhishek Kumar and Jorge Molinero as Brent swings from $100 to $85 to $93 in a week. They cover Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, Suez rerouting costs, a tightening diesel market, and diverging crude premiums across Hormuz and Red Sea choke points. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast  Chapters:  (00:35) Oil's Wild Week: Houthi Attacks and the Yanbu Reroute Brent swung from $100 to $85 to $93 in days. Abhishek breaks down Jizan refinery strikes and Suez rerouting costs. (07:22) Rhine Crisis and Record-Tight US Barrels Kaub gauge nears critical levels as US crude and gasoline stocks hit multi-year lows despite record refinery runs. (09:42) Gasoline and Naphtha: East Beats West East-West spread flips as European E10 blending reopens and the TAR arb into PAD1 looks set to widen. (14:10) Diesel Squeeze and the Freight Spike Behind It TC14 rates jump on tonne mile demand as Jazan's outage and a possible Russian export ban extension tighten Europe further. (20:55) Crude Flows Rewrite Around Two Choke Points Murban and Melbourne premiums diverge as Asian refiners route around both Hormuz and the Red Sea. (24:15) Fuel Oil: HSFO Eases, VLSFO Stays Tight August HSFO cracks pull back from highs while VLSFO cracks sit near $23 on limited medium crude supply.

  7. 23. Juli

    Episode 103: The Houthis hit Yanbu. Where does crude go now?

    Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels loading at Yanbu leave seven million barrels of crude searching for a route. Felipe Elink Schuurman, James Noel-Beswick and Jay Maroo on Suezmax freight, why diesel still looks undervalued, and the crude spreads with room to run. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox.  Chapters:  (01:11) Risk stacks up: Houthis, Yanbu and CPC — Attacks on Saudi vessels at Yanbu and 1.5m b/d of Kazakh crude offline stack the risk higher. (03:48) Seven million barrels with nowhere to go — Yanbu crude needs a new route north via Suez or around the Cape. Costlier, slower, tighter. (08:44) Diesel's worst-case setup is building — Jody confirms weak EU demand; diesel still looks undervalued with Russia, Mideast and Yanbu supply all at risk. (19:01) Singapore rips, Europe waits — Singapore spreads break every moving average; Gulf Coast dominates as Europe eyes September arbs. (23:34) The bull case for Brent spreads — Brent Dubai and CPC keep the long alive, but the cleaner trade sits in freight. (27:27) Freight: the trade with conviction — Suezmax TD20 and TD3C as Yanbu and Houthi inefficiencies ripple through shipping.

  8. 16. Juli

    Episode 102: The ceasefire is dead. Why is crude still asleep?

    Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby and Jay Maroo on the collapsed Iran ceasefire, Brent's jump from 72 to 85, and the market fatigue no one's pricing. Diesel cracks and gasoline spreads hit records while crude stays quiet, with the Russian diesel ban now double the Hormuz problem. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=audio&utm_campaign=podcast Chapters (01:41) The ceasefire is dead, and the market is tired MOU collapse, escalation back, Brent at 85, but fatigue means no one wants to price the risk. (12:16) Diesel: the Russian ban that dwarfs Hormuz Russian diesel exports near 1m bpd gone, cracks and spreads bullish, Hogo the solver into Europe. (21:52) Crude: enough for now, bullish later Asians scramble for WTI and SPR barrels, Europe long crude, WTI-Brent widens, Brent bullish eventually. (29:49) Gasoline: cracks at ten-year highs Spreads and cracks at records, New York arbs shut for August, Singapore spreads the trade to watch.

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In-depth analysis of current trends and future expectations for different segments of the oil market, with a focus on understanding both the supply and demand dynamics at play.

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