Universal Basic Kalshi Guys

Evan Mandery
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A pair of long-time investors and social scientists navigate the prediction market with a focus on politics and the heuristic biases that derail most speculators.

  1. 31. Juli

    The Summer of Learning: Sunk Cost Fallacy

    Sunk cost fallacy is one of the most well-documented and costly cognitive biases in economics and psychology, and one that any successful investor or gambler must overcome. As the Summer of Learning continues, the UBK Gang explains what sunk costs are, why humans are psychologically wired to fall prey to this fallacy, and how to combat in your investing.

  2. 24. Juli

    The Summer of Learning: Anchoring Bias

    The Summer of Learning continues with an introduction to anchoring bias, the tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information encountered when making a decision, even when that information is arbitrary, irrelevant, or clearly wrong. The UBK gang goes deep on the seminal research of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky and how to combat anchoring bias in your own approach to prediction markets.

  3. 17. Juli

    The Summer of Learning: Perpetuals

    In May of 2026, Kalshi became the first company in U.S. history to offer CFTC-regulated perpetual futures contracts. As the Summer of Learning continues, the UBK gang explains what perpetuals are, how they work mechanically, and how they compare to options trading, which is the most familiar leveraged derivative for moat investors.

  4. 10. Juli

    The Summer of Learning: An Introduction to Prediction Markets

    The UBK Gang's Summer of Learning begins with an introduction to prediction markets, including an explanation of the difference between prediction markets, parimutuel markets, and fixed-price wagering--and how market makers and takers work together to shape prices on Kalshi

  5. 3. Juli

    The "Donk" Controversy and the Nature of Reality in Prediction Markets

    Controversy recently exploded on Polymarket over the resolution of the more than $5.7 million mention market for whether the name "Donk" was uttered during a Counter Strike 2 broadcast. The UBK Gang takes a deep dive on how Polymarket resolves contested markets through the Optimistic Oracle and Universal Market Access coin--and the risks of corruption inherent in public resolution mechanisms. They also contrast the regulatory framework relied upon by Kalshi for approaching similarly contested markets. Special content for fans of game theory and the Nobel Prize-winning economist Thomas Schelling. (Link to the excellent New York Times article on the controversy below).

  6. 26. Juni

    Will There Be an US-Iran Nuclear Deal?

    The UBK Gang discusses the history of US involvement in the Middle East and the Kalshi market for whether there's likely to be a US-Iran nuclear deal by the end of the year.

  7. 24. Juni

    Who Will Win the Maine Senate Race?

    The UB Gang takes a look at the Maine Senate race and examines whether Graham Platner and Susan Collins are worth a bet.

  8. 12. Juni

    Who Will Win the Texas Senate Race?

    McKenna returns & the UBK Gang discusses the unfolding Texas Senate race & related markets.

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A pair of long-time investors and social scientists navigate the prediction market with a focus on politics and the heuristic biases that derail most speculators.

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  • Erstellt von
    Evan Mandery
  • Jahre aktiv
    2026
  • Folgen
    29
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    © 2026 Evan Mandery
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