How can Marines help an ally facing gray-zone coercion at sea today, and what must they be ready to do if deterrence fails and war breaks out? Summary Lieutenant General Jay Bargeron, Carlton Haelig, and Don Edwards join Kyle Atwell to discuss Ground Combat Element 2040, the Marine Corps’ vision for its ground forces. Bargeron recalls taking command of a regiment coming home from Afghanistan and discovering how much work it would take to prepare those same Marines for a different kind of war. Drawing on exercises in Japan and the Philippines, the guests examine how Marines can help an ally facing pressure short of war, and what happens if that ally limits American access in a crisis. They also consider what a rifle squad can reasonably learn in a training year, how Marines judge the information on their screens, and which decisions should stay with the Marine on the ground. Takeaways What does America need the Marines to bring on day one? The decision to give up tanks opens a bigger debate about what a president should be able to ask Marines to do in the first hours of a crisis. What if the ally you train with says no when it counts? Years of exercises and disaster response can build trust. A threat of retaliation can still make a partner think twice about granting access. That possibility gives fresh weight to what Marines can do from ships. What if deterrence works and an ally still gets pushed around? The Marines could help prevent an invasion while a partner faces harassment at sea every day. How should Washington judge success when the pressure never lets up and war never comes? Every new piece of gear comes with a claim on a squad’s time. A commander who adds a system to the infantry squad also has to decide which skills get fewer hours of practice. That tradeoff gets harder as the list of things Marines are expected to master grows. A dead network is easy to spot. A lying network is harder. Marines train to operate when their screens go dark. A tougher test comes when the screen stays on, the picture looks convincing, and the Marine on the ground has reason to doubt it. Guests Lieutenant General Jay M. Bargeron is the Marine Corps Deputy Commandant for Plans, Policies, and Operations. An infantry officer, he commanded 7th Marines and later the 3d Marine Division in the Pacific. Dr. Carlton Haelig is a fellow in the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security. His research examines military innovation, defense strategy, and how the United States plans and pays for its future force. Don Edwards is a Marine officer and an advisor to the Irregular Warfare Initiative’s Special Operations Forces program. He has also hosted the Irregular Warfare Podcast. Kyle Atwell is the host for episode 168. Please reach out to him with any questions about the episode or IWI. About the podcast The Irregular Warfare Podcast is a production of the Irregular Warfare Initiative (IWI). We are a team of volunteers dedicated to bridging the gap between scholars and practitioners to support the community of irregular warfare professionals. IWI generates written and audio content, coordinates events for the IW community, and hosts critical thinkers in the field of irregular warfare as IWI fellows. You can follow and engage with us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, or LinkedIn. Subscribe to our monthly newsletter for (always free!) access to our written content, upcoming community events, and other resources. Support for the Irregular Warfare Podcast comes from Hadean, an AI company focused on synthetic environments for training, planning, and decision support. Learn more at hadean.com. Support is also provided by Leidos, a company focused on cyber and technology innovation, intelligence analysis, and mission support. Learn more at leidos.com/intel. All views expressed in this episode are the personal views of the participants and do not represent those of the Irregular Warfare Initiative, the Empirical Studies of Conflict Project, or any agency of the U.S. or any other government. Credits Intro music: “Unsilenced” by Ketsa Outro music: “Launch” by Ketsa Photo: U.S. Marines offload a Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System from a C-130J on Batan, Philippines, during Exercise Balikatan, April 27, 2026. U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Iyer Ramakrishna, 3d Marine Division. DVIDS photo 9673550. Public domain. Cropped to match the episode cover format.
