Excess Returns

Excess Returns
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. 2 HR AGO

    Disbelief Is the Real Risk: Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on Why the AI Bubble is Just Getting Started

    This episode of Excess Returns features Gene Munster and Doug Clinton breaking down their 2026 technology and market predictions, with a deep focus on artificial intelligence, big tech, and where investors may be misreading the current cycle. The conversation explores how far along the AI bull market really is, what fundamentals still support it, and where the biggest opportunities and risks may emerge over the next several years. Munster and Clinton discuss market structure, capital spending, valuation, and technological inflection points across AI, software, hardware, and autonomous driving, offering a grounded but forward-looking framework for long-term investors. Main topics covered Why the AI bull market may still have multiple years left and how fundamentals support current valuations Nasdaq return expectations through 2026 and what earnings and multiples imply for investors The case for small-cap and non–Mag Seven tech outperforming as the AI cycle matures Hyperscaler AI capital spending and why CapEx growth could exceed current expectations Whether AI pricing pressure leads to commoditization or expanding long-term value creation How AI is changing the economics of infrastructure, platforms, and asset-heavy tech businesses Apple’s AI strategy, the future of Siri, and why expectations matter for valuation Alphabet, Amazon, and the evolving AI competition among the largest technology companies Energy constraints, data centers, nuclear power, and the infrastructure needed to support AI growth Tesla, Waymo, and the realistic timeline for autonomous driving and robotaxi adoption How physical AI, autonomy, and robotics could reshape transportation and consumer behavior Timestamps 00:00 AI cycle outlook and why the bull market may still be early 05:00 Nasdaq return expectations and earnings fundamentals 10:30 Small-cap tech versus Mag Seven performance 17:15 Hyperscaler AI CapEx and Nvidia’s signals 24:00 Infrastructure, pricing power, and AI commoditization debates 32:30 Apple, Siri, and consumer AI assistants 38:50 Alphabet, Amazon, and AI competition among mega-cap tech 45:00 Energy, data centers, and nuclear power considerations 48:10 Tesla, autonomy, and robotaxi timelines 54:15 Waymo, market share, and the future of transportation

    1 hr

  2. 2 DAYS AGO

    The Bubble Most Will Get Wrong | Aswath Damodaran on How He is Managing His Own Money in a World of AI

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Professor Aswath Damodaran joins Matt Zeigler and Kai Wu for a wide-ranging conversation on valuation, portfolio construction, and how investors should think about risk, discipline, and opportunity in a market shaped by AI, market concentration, and rising uncertainty. Damodaran walks through how he builds and manages his own portfolio, why price matters more than story or quality, and how AI-driven capital spending could reshape margins and returns across the economy. The discussion blends practical investing frameworks with big-picture market insights, offering a clear look at how a valuation-driven investor navigates today’s environment. Main topics covered • How Aswath Damodaran builds a stock portfolio, including diversification, position sizing, and turnover • Why investing is about buying at the right price, not buying great companies • Using valuation frameworks to invest in young, unprofitable, and fast-growing companies • How stories and narratives fit into valuation without replacing financial discipline • Watchlists, patience, and waiting for price rather than chasing popular stocks • Sell discipline, overvaluation triggers, and avoiding emotional attachment to winners • Using probability distributions and simulations instead of single-point estimates • How company lifecycles affect growth, margins, and capital allocation decisions • Why many companies struggle as they age and how management quality shows up late in the lifecycle • AI as a capital cycle and why massive AI investment may lower margins overall • Why AI is likely to create a bubble, even if it delivers long-term economic value • Winners and losers in the AI value chain, from infrastructure to applications • Risks from AI infrastructure spending, debt, and cross-ownership structures • Why private markets may not deliver better outcomes for individual investors • How Damodaran thinks about cash, diversification, and assets uncorrelated with equities • Reentering markets after selling and avoiding the trap of staying in cash too long • Time horizon, legacy investing, and managing wealth across generations Timestamps 00:00 Investing is about price, valuation, and early thoughts on AI and market risk 01:54 Personal investing philosophy and why portfolios must be investor-specific 03:00 Diversification, number of holdings, and managing downside risk 05:00 Valuation frameworks and buying companies at the right price 06:00 Stories versus numbers and avoiding the circle of competence trap 08:20 Political risk and why some sectors are hard to value 08:47 Watchlists, patience, and waiting for price to meet value 11:43 When and why to sell stocks as a value investor 12:00 Using probability distributions and simulations in valuation 15:48 Sell discipline, fund flows, and separating skill from luck 18:00 Company lifecycles, aging businesses, and management discipline 23:18 Apple, Meta, and contrasting approaches to AI investment 24:08 AI bubbles, winner-take-all dynamics, and capital cycles 27:48 Infrastructure investing, debt risk, and societal spillovers 32:20 Cross-ownership risks and AI ecosystem fragility 35:00 AI’s impact on profit margins and competition 39:41 Where AI value may accrue over time 44:38 AI tools, valuation bots, and the rise of investment scams 49:17 Private markets, alternatives, and cost structures 53:05 Cash, collectibles, and diversification beyond equities 56:33 Reentering markets after selling and avoiding market timing traps 58:35 Time horizon, legacy investing, and generational wealth

    1h 2m

  3. 4 DAYS AGO

    The Great Moderation Is Over | Liz Ann Sonders on What Replaces It

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Liz Ann Sonders to discuss the evolving market and economic landscape heading into 2026. The conversation focuses on why this cycle feels fundamentally different, how instability rather than uncertainty is shaping investor behavior, and what that means for inflation, the labor market, Federal Reserve policy, and equity markets. Liz Ann breaks down the growing bifurcation across the economy and markets, the shift away from the Great Moderation era, and how investors should think about diversification, earnings, valuations, and AI-driven capital spending in a more volatile and fragmented environment. Main topics covered • Why today’s environment is better described as unstable rather than uncertain • The K-shaped economy and growing bifurcation across consumers, sectors, and markets • Inflation dynamics and why 2 percent may now be a floor rather than a ceiling • How deglobalization, supply chains, and tariffs are changing the inflation regime • The shifting relationship between stocks and bonds • Hard data versus soft data and what sentiment is really telling us • The labor market’s headwinds and tailwinds, including immigration and hiring trends • AI’s impact on productivity, jobs, and capital spending • The AI capex boom and how it differs from the late 1990s tech cycle • Earnings growth, valuation compression, and market broadening • Rolling recessions versus traditional economic downturns • Federal Reserve challenges under a conflicted dual mandate • Why factor-based investing matters more than sector or style calls Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and why this cycle feels different 02:00 Uncertainty versus instability in markets 03:30 The K-shaped economy and market bifurcation 07:00 Market broadening, small caps, and diversification 09:00 Inflation measurement challenges and data reliability 12:00 Why inflation may stay above 2 percent 15:00 Stock and bond correlations across cycles 17:30 Labor market crosscurrents and immigration effects 20:45 AI, productivity, and entry-level job pressures 24:30 Sentiment versus fundamentals in markets 27:30 Retail trading, behavior, and market psychology 31:00 Rolling recessions and post-pandemic distortions 38:00 Technology, cyclicality, and sector rotation 40:30 The Fed’s policy dilemma and internal disagreements 45:00 AI capital spending and comparisons to the dot-com era 51:00 Earnings growth versus valuation expansion 55:00 Factors, GARP, and portfolio positioning for 2026

    59 min

  4. 6 DAYS AGO

    The Regime Shift No One is Prepared For | Grant Williams on the 100 Year Pivot

    This episode of Excess Returns features a wide ranging conversation with Grant Williams on what he calls the hundred year pivot. Grant explains why today’s environment feels fundamentally different from the last several decades, why long held investing assumptions may no longer apply, and how declining trust in institutions, money, and markets is reshaping the global financial system. Drawing on history, macroeconomics, and decades of market experience, the discussion explores what this transition means for investors trying to navigate a world defined by uncertainty, volatility, and structural change. Main topics covered • What the hundred year pivot means and why it represents a once in a generation shift • The Fourth Turning framework and how it connects financial crises, politics, and social change • Why buy the dip worked for decades and why it may fail in the years ahead • The erosion of trust in institutions and its impact on markets and money • The financial crisis, sanctions, and the freezing of sovereign assets as turning points • The role of the dollar, gold, and central banks in a changing monetary system • Lessons from history including Bretton Woods and the Suez crisis • Why commodities and real assets matter in a world of deglobalization and reshoring • How artificial intelligence fits into the current investment cycle and capital allocation boom • Portfolio construction and behavioral challenges in a higher volatility environment Timestamps 00:00 The hundred year pivot and why this cycle is different 01:30 Defining the Fourth Turning and historical cycles 07:40 The financial crisis as the start of institutional breakdown 11:00 Sanctions, sovereign assets, and the end of unquestioned trust in the dollar 18:20 Historical parallels from Bretton Woods and the Suez crisis 24:50 What could trigger a broader monetary reset 28:50 Energy, geopolitics, and shifting global alliances 35:00 Commodities, real assets, and rebuilding supply chains 42:40 Artificial intelligence, capital cycles, and uncertainty 52:30 Portfolio construction, behavior, and risk tolerance 59:50 Where to follow Grant Williams and his work

    1h 1m

  5. 10 JAN

    Sold At "Irrational Exuberance". Still Lost Money | Sam Ro on the Bubble Paradox

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we dive deep into one of the most pressing investing debates today: how to think about valuations, profit margins, and artificial intelligence in a market that feels both expensive and transformative. Sam Ro joins Matt Zeigler and Kai Wu for a wide-ranging conversation that explores whether traditional valuation tools still matter, how AI is reshaping corporate economics, and why history suggests investors should be cautious about bubble narratives even when enthusiasm runs high. From profit margins and capital intensity to the future of the Magnificent Seven, this episode focuses on how long-term investors can frame uncertainty without relying on false precision or short-term market calls. Timestamps 00:00 Valuations, bubbles, and why timing markets is so hard 01:41 Do valuations still matter for investors 05:58 S&P 500 valuation levels versus history 09:30 Profit margins and why mean reversion has not shown up yet 14:39 Household finances, pricing power, and consumer resilience 15:47 AI, productivity, and the limits of forecasting economic impact 19:15 Valuations adjusted for structurally higher profit margins 21:15 Tech multiples, growth expectations, and PEG ratios 24:07 Are we in an AI bubble and why that question may not help 29:14 Lessons from past bubbles and irrational exuberance 30:14 How transformative AI could be compared to past innovations 35:20 Massive AI capital spending and the risk of overbuild 39:42 Who captures value in AI: builders versus users 46:39 Revenue per worker and productivity trends 48:00 Dispersion inside the Magnificent Seven 51:34 Big tech shifting from asset-light to asset-heavy models 59:53 Turnover among top companies over time 01:01:10 Why Wall Street price targets miss the point 01:04:30 Presidential cycles and market returns 01:06:28 Fund manager surveys and why popular risks are often lagging indicators Topics covered How investors should think about valuations over long time horizons Why elevated profit margins may be more structural than cyclical The role of AI in productivity, earnings, and competitive dynamics Bubble psychology and lessons from the dot-com era Capital intensity, overinvestment, and the risk of write-downs Why AI infrastructure builders may not capture most of the value What dispersion within the Magnificent Seven signals for markets Why broad diversification still matters in a rapidly changing market

    1h 10m

  6. 8 JAN

    Long-Term Uptrend. Short-Term Warning Signs | Katie Stockton on What Charts Say About What's Next

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to walk through her technical outlook for markets as we head into 2026. The conversation focuses on trend analysis, momentum, volatility, and risk management across U.S. equities, sectors, international markets, and alternative assets. Rather than making predictions, Katie explains how she reacts to price, confirms signals, and uses a disciplined technical process to identify opportunities and manage downside risk in changing market environments. Main topics covered Market trend outlook for U.S. equities heading into 2026 Why long-term trends remain constructive despite rising short-term risks How to think about volatility, consolidation, and corrective phases What loss of momentum in late 2025 signals for near-term positioning How to use triangle formations, support, and resistance levels Understanding DeMark indicators, MACD, and stochastic signals Leadership shifts within large-cap technology and the Mag 7 Growth versus value dynamics across market caps Small caps, market breadth, and participation signals Sector rotation insights including technology, healthcare, financials, energy, utilities, and real estate How sentiment indicators like fear and greed fit into a broader process Gold, silver, and precious metals trends and volatility Bitcoin and crypto from a technical perspective The U.S. dollar, yields, and global market implications International and emerging market opportunities How the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF is constructed and used in portfolios Where a tactical, risk-managed strategy can fit within asset allocation Timestamps 00:00 Market setup and trend perspective for 2026 01:25 Long-term uptrend versus short-term risk 04:16 Momentum loss and near-term caution 06:00 Nasdaq 100 triangle and volatility setup 07:45 Ichimoku clouds and trend confirmation 11:01 Using consolidation and support levels 13:05 Tech leadership and relative strength shifts 18:30 Small caps, breadth, and market participation 21:01 Growth versus value across market caps 23:00 Market breadth and advance-decline signals 24:13 Sentiment, fear and greed, and retests 30:00 Breakouts, catalysts, and confirmation 32:00 Sector rotation overview 35:00 Energy, real estate, and rate-sensitive sectors 39:10 Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF strategy 45:00 International and emerging markets 47:36 Gold, silver, and precious metals 51:04 U.S. dollar and currency trends 54:00 Bitcoin and crypto technical outlook 57:12 Key indicators to watch going forward 59:07 Long-term takeaways for investors

    1h 2m

  7. 6 JAN

    It’s Not K-Shaped. It’s No Shaped | Jim Paulsen on What You're Getting Wrong About 2026

    Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts ⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jim-paulsen-show/id1828054999⁠⁠ Subscribe on Spotify ⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/3QaBDVGuBZ3cZfFZ4mqPFc⁠⁠ In this episode of the Jim Paulsen Show, Jim Paulsen joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to break down what the economy and markets may really be signaling beneath the headline numbers. Drawing from his recent outlook and long history studying market cycles, Jim explains why growth may be weaker than it appears, how policy lags are shaping the outlook, and why today’s market looks very different from past late-cycle environments. The conversation explores the divide between the “new era” economy and the rest of the market, what that means for investors in 2026, and where opportunities may be emerging as monetary and fiscal policy begin to shift. Topics covered in this episode• Why headline GDP growth may be overstating the true strength of the economy• How trade distortions are affecting recent GDP data• The concept of a “no-shaped economy” and the divide between new era and old era businesses• Labor market signals that suggest economic sluggishness beneath the surface• Why this may be one of the most disliked bull markets in history• The role of policy lags and why easing could matter more than investors expect• How market concentration has shaped returns over the last several years• Warning signs emerging within the technology sector• The relationship between corporate cash levels, R&D spending, and tech leadership• Why market breadth and old era sectors may become more important going forward• Thoughts on bonds, stocks, commodities, gold, and portfolio positioning• Why international and emerging markets could benefit from a weaker dollar• How investors might think about diversification in an unusual market cycle Timestamps00:00 Introduction and key themes from Jim’s outlook03:00 Why the economy may be weaker than GDP headlines suggest06:00 Labor market signals and recession-like dynamics12:00 Policy lags, the Fed, and why growth could soften further15:00 Market performance after multiple strong years18:00 The no-shaped economy and the split between new era and old era24:00 Strange market signals at all-time highs27:00 Valuations, sentiment, and why pessimism matters29:00 Fed easing expectations and consensus forecasts35:00 Warning signs for technology stocks42:00 Corporate cash, R&D spending, and tech leadership risks47:00 Portfolio construction and asset allocation thinking55:00 Final thoughts on opportunities and risks ahead

    58 min

  8. 2 JAN

    4% of Stocks. 100% of Wealth | Gautam Baid on the Brutal Math of Compounding

    In this wide-ranging conversation, Gautam Baid joins Excess Returns to discuss the principles that shaped his investing philosophy, the lessons learned through bear markets, and why compounding, patience, and quality matter far more than forecasts or short-term performance. Drawing from his books The Joys of Compounding and The Making of a Value Investor, Baid shares a deeply reflective framework for long-term investing, portfolio construction, behavioral discipline, and global diversification, with insights spanning Indian and US markets, liquidity cycles, AI, and investor psychology. Main topics covered • The asymmetric power of compounding and why being wrong half the time can still lead to exceptional long-term returns • Why patience, temperament, and behavior matter more than analytical precision in investing • The role of journaling in improving decision-making and avoiding repeated behavioral mistakes • How investor sentiment reveals itself through IPO markets and portfolio quality late in bull cycles • Why long-term investing requires continuous monitoring rather than buy-and-forget complacency • Letting winners run, cutting losers, and understanding power-law outcomes in stock markets • Liquidity cycles and how they drive market returns in both India and the United States • How bear markets reshape investing philosophy toward resilience, quality, and diversification • When averaging down makes sense and when it is dangerous • The differences between Indian and US equity markets, valuations, and governance • Why home country bias can be a major risk for US-based investors • AI, productivity, profitability, and where future market winners may emerge beyond mega-cap tech • Why passion for investing matters more than money in sustaining long-term success Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and the asymmetric nature of compounding 01:00 Gautam Baid’s investing background and books 03:00 The importance of journaling and learning through bear markets 06:00 Investor sentiment, IPOs, and late-cycle market behavior 10:20 Long-term investing versus complacency and monitoring risk 14:15 Convex upside, concave downside, and letting winners run 18:30 Liquidity cycles and lessons from Stan Druckenmiller 22:45 Identifying market bottoms and the anatomy of bull and bear markets 28:00 Averaging down, quality, and risk management 30:30 How bear markets change investor psychology and strategy 33:00 Patience, management quality, and long-term optionality 36:15 Mr. Market, price signals, and market intelligence 39:00 The Federal Reserve, inflation, and asset price dynamics 44:00 Understanding the Indian equity market and valuation structure 46:45 Why global diversification matters for US investors 50:30 AI, margins, and the future of value investing 53:00 Passion, purpose, and the psychology of long-term investing 54:30 The single most note investors should learn

    57 min
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

Information

  • Creator
    Excess Returns
  • Years Active
    2019 - 2026
  • Episodes
    443
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 905628
  • Show Website
    Excess Returns

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