Excess Returns

Excess Returns
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. 8 hr ago

    Mike Green on Passive Flows, Market Concentration and What Could Change the Cycle

    Mike Green explains how passive investing is reshaping stock prices, market concentration, and the way investors build portfolios. His argument: understanding which funds receive money—and how they allocate it—is increasingly essential to understanding the stocks those funds own. The founder of Tier1 Alpha Asset Management joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to connect retirement contributions, target-date funds, and index construction to the buying pressure behind the market's largest companies. He explains why he believes giant IPOs benefit from index mechanics, why liquidity does not keep pace with market capitalization, and how fund flows may help explain the behavior of value, size, and momentum. Green also walks through the investment framework he is building at Tier1: tracking thousands of funds, estimating their impact on individual securities, and making small portfolio tilts to account for those flows. The conversation explores what could interrupt retirement-driven buying, where fundamental analysis still matters, and how his planned strategies incorporate managed futures for diversification. Topics covered: - Why Mike Green thinks fund selection is increasingly shaping security prices - Why low-float index inclusions can create demand for giant IPOs - Why giant IPOs and smaller offerings can face very different sources of demand - Retirement contributions, target-date allocations, and the employment catalyst that could change flows - How passive flows may help explain value, size, and momentum-factor behavior - Why liquidity does not grow in proportion to market capitalization - Tier1's approach to tracking fund flows and making small portfolio tilts - Where discounted cash flow analysis fits in a market shaped by mechanical buying - Tracking error, managed futures, and Tier1's planned portfolio strategies - What employment trends could mean for the retirement contributions supporting passive flows Chapters: 00:00 Mike Green on the election and giant IPOs 05:44 IPO demand, passive buying, and weakening employment 11:18 Valuation in a market shaped by flows 16:46 Passive flows, value, and momentum 21:27 Tracking fund flows and building portfolio tilts 26:31 Inflation, energy bottlenecks, and pricing power 30:50 AI investment returns and the fiber-optic analogy 35:33 Fed policy, market rules, and Tier1's planned strategies 43:18 The K-shaped economy, AI jobs, and gig work 48:00 Political risks, optimism, and human agency 53:32 Closing thoughts and where to follow Mike Green Tier1 Alpha Asset Management https://www.t1acapital.com/ Mike Green on X https://x.com/profplum99 Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  2. 1 day ago

    Spending Is Up 7%. Paychecks Are Up 3%. What Happens When Stocks Stop Paying the Difference?

    Bob Elliott and Aahan Menon examine how stock-market wealth is helping consumers spend faster than their paychecks grow—and what that means for corporate profits if stocks stop rising. Elliott, co-founder of Unlimited, and Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, join Matt Zeigler to connect household spending, AI investment, and the earnings expectations built into markets. They discuss where their growth outlooks differ, why persistent inflation complicates the Fed's choices, and how bonds can look attractive against stocks while still looking unattractive against cash. The conversation also explores whether AI is producing the economy-wide gains needed to justify its investment boom, how forward spending commitments could reverse, and why both guests distinguish those risks from a repeat of the 2008 credit crisis. Topics covered: - What the midterm election could change for fiscal policy and data-center construction - Oil and AI as the competing forces behind inflation and growth expectations - Bob Elliott's distinction between peak growth and peak pricing of growth - How household wealth and drawing down savings support consumer spending - Aahan Menon on wages, workforce participation, immigration, and demographics - Why both guests think central banks are reluctant to deliver tighter policy - Bonds versus stocks, bonds versus cash, and Aahan Menon's inflation-nowcast rule - Bob Elliott's test for AI: accelerating productivity and revenue beyond the technology sector - How business investment and household spending feed corporate profits - Why AI commitments could weaken spending and earnings without a systemic credit crisis Chapters: 00:00 Bob Elliott and Aahan Menon on the election 04:25 Oil, AI, and the market's growth expectations 09:25 Peak growth pricing and the consumer spending gap 15:45 Household wealth, wages, and the labor market 20:08 The Fed's response to persistent inflation 24:12 Bonds versus stocks and bonds versus cash 30:28 Inflation nowcasts and the test for AI productivity 37:05 AI revenue expectations and the sources of profits 43:38 Credit risks and AI's forward spending commitments 50:38 Where Bob Elliott and Aahan Menon disagree Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  3. 2 days ago

    The Liquidity Cycle Has Turned | Michael Howell on What It Means for Investors

    Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital explains why slowing global liquidity could challenge stocks even as AI earnings remain strong. His concern is a growing competition for funding: money is flowing into real-world investment just as a huge wave of existing debt needs refinancing. With Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, Howell walks through his liquidity cycle, the role of collateral and repo markets, and why he believes government bonds deserve another look. He also discusses the difference between declining liquidity growth and an outright contraction, the risks of financing the AI buildout, and how China's debt problems could shape the longer-term outlook for gold. Topics covered: - How Michael Howell measures global liquidity as the financial system's capacity to provide funding - Why a strong real economy can compete with financial markets for money - The four phases of the liquidity cycle and the shift from speculation toward turbulence - Why bank reserves, Treasury issuance, and collateral volatility matter beyond the Fed's policy rate - How AI earnings have given technology stocks an unusual second wind late in the cycle - The debt maturity wall and why Michael Howell watches debt relative to liquidity - How refinancing stress can spread through interconnected balance sheets - The case for government bonds as liquidity tightens and economic growth slows - Why Michael Howell distinguishes US Treasury yields from Europe's fiscal pressures - China's debt burden, potential monetary expansion, and the implications for gold and Bitcoin Chapters: 00:00 Michael Howell on slowing global liquidity 04:29 Why Main Street competes with Wall Street for funding 09:12 The four phases of the liquidity cycle 14:03 Repo markets, collateral, and the role of central banks 18:15 Private credit creation and Fed-Treasury coordination 22:25 Asset allocation through the liquidity cycle 29:28 AI cyclicality and comparisons with past booms 33:35 The debt maturity wall and refinancing demands 41:23 Debt-to-liquidity stress and financial system fragility 46:04 Refinancing risks and Europe's fiscal pressures 50:19 Treasury yields, nominal growth, and China's economy 55:43 The outlook for 2027, China's debt, and gold Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  4. 3 days ago

    Seven Stocks Are 41% of the S&P | John Davi on Building Portfolios Beyond the Mag 7 Bet

    John Davi of Astoria Investment Management explains how he builds diversified portfolios in a tech dominated market. With Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, Davi walks through an alternative approach. He also explains why he sees echoes of the 1970s in today's inflation, what he watches in credit markets for signs of stress in the AI buildout, and where real assets fit alongside stocks and bonds. Topics covered: - Why John Davi trimmed Astoria's equity overweight without trying to call a market top - What the 10-year Treasury yield looks like relative to nominal economic growth - How SPY and QQQ overlap, and what a conventional equal-weight index changes besides stock weights - The question facing the Magnificent Seven: can earnings grow fast enough to justify AI spending? - Where John Davi agrees with the passive investing feedback-loop argument and where it falls short - What goes in the 20% when a 60/40 portfolio becomes 50% stocks, 30% bonds, and 20% diversifiers - Why John Davi favors AI adopters and watches credit default swaps on the companies funding the buildout - How Astoria screens for quality at a reasonable price using profitability, dividends, and valuation - What trading floors taught John Davi about hedging before a drawdown Chapters: 00:00 John Davi on earnings, rates, and trimming equity risk 05:05 Is the 10-year Treasury yield high relative to growth? 10:16 Seven stocks and the changing risk inside the S&P 500 14:33 Diversifying around SPY and QQQ 20:02 Equal stock weights without a big tech underweight 24:46 Passive flows, prices, and buying the dip 30:04 Higher rates, the 60/40 portfolio, and real assets 37:08 From AI builders to companies using AI 42:40 Credit spreads and cracks in the AI trade 47:34 Adding a quality screen to growth stocks 55:12 Why John Davi hedges and resists chasing past winners Research discussed: Rates Hit Multi-Decade Highs. Will Growth and Earnings Keep the Rally Going? https://www.astoriaim.com/single-post/rates-hit-multi-decade-highs-will-growth-and-earnings-keep-the-rally-going Astoria Investment Management https://www.astoriaim.com/ Astoria on X https://x.com/AstoriaAdvisors Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  5. 4 days ago

    Chip Stocks Look Cheap. AI Spending Is Surging. So Why Is Cameron Dawson Watching for Peak Earnings?

    Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler to examine what could break the market's resilience, from AI earnings expectations to the wealth effect supporting consumer spending. A healthy economy and continued data center investment may not be enough to keep stock prices rising if profit margins and investor expectations reset. In this episode of Click Beta, Matt, Cameron and Dave debate what the two-year Treasury yield is signaling, how the AI buildout is changing demand for capital, and why semiconductor stocks can look cheap just as earnings approach a peak. They also discuss the possibility of a prolonged sideways market, practical approaches to rebalancing, and separating near-term cash needs from long-term investments. Then the surprise topics take a Halloween turn, with homemade costumes, strange family heirlooms, horror movies, and a very specific Creed halftime-show tribute. Topics covered: - Cameron Dawson's question: what would have to break for the Fed to deliver fewer hikes than markets expect? - The wealth effect, consumer spending, and the divide between the top and bottom of the K-shaped economy - Dave Nadig's concerns about AI financing, IPO supply, and who will absorb new stock issuance - Why a low semiconductor P/E ratio can reflect concerns about peak earnings - Micron, margin normalization, and the risk of extrapolating unusually strong profitability - How a resilient economy could coexist with falling technology stocks or a sideways index - Market rotation, defensive leadership, and the challenge of countertrend rallies - Rebalancing rules, timing luck, and planning for cash needs over the next 12 months - Distinguishing long-term legacy assets from money needed soon - Halloween costumes, family traditions, Rocky Horror, and cult-film recommendations Chapters: 00:00 Welcome to Click Beta: Limp Bizkit meets the Fed 05:30 What would have to break for the Fed to change course? 11:18 The K-shaped consumer and AI's demand for capital 16:44 More expensive capital and semiconductor earnings risk 22:30 Can chip margins stay this high? 26:56 Market rotation and the risk of going sideways 32:51 Diversification, rebalancing, and near-term cash needs 37:40 Halloween costumes and family stories 42:02 Holiday heirlooms and a Creed costume deep cut 46:32 Halloween movies, music, and where to find the panel Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  6. 30 Oct

    Tech is Selling Off. AI Debt Fears Are Rising. So Why Does a $4B Manager See a Reverse Bubble?

    Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors makes the case for an AI "reverse bubble" and explains how earnings growth, interest rates, and valuation shape his market outlook. Rather than treating AI spending as proof of excess, he looks at contracts, financing costs, and the returns companies can earn on their investments. In this episode of Excess Returns, Jay joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to discuss his S&P 500 scenarios, the debate over CoreWeave and AI infrastructure debt, and why he believes some technology stocks offer better value than perceived safe havens. He also challenges the Fed's inflation framework and explains how he combines earnings growth, dividend yield, catalysts, and individual-stock covered calls in his investment process. Topics covered: - How Jay Hatfield builds S&P 500 targets from earnings estimates and valuation multiples - Why Treasury yields matter to discounted cash flow valuations - CoreWeave, project financing, and the distinction between contracted demand and speculative construction - What compute prices and long-term contracts could reveal about AI bubble risk - Jay Hatfield's "reverse bubble" thesis and his comparisons of growth-adjusted stock valuations - His framework linking the 10-year Treasury yield to expected terminal Fed policy - Why he challenges the Fed's inflation target, shelter data, and use of PCE - Evaluating dividend payers with PEGY: price relative to earnings growth plus dividend yield - How reinvestment, corporate taxes, and returns on capital affect long-term compounding - Combining stock selection and catalysts with actively managed covered calls Infrastructure Capital Advisors: https://www.infracapfunds.com/ Jay Hatfield / InfraCap on X: https://x.com/JDHatfield_ICAP InfraCap's CPI-R analysis: https://www.infracapfunds.com/consumer-price-index-cpi-r Chapters: 00:00 Jay Hatfield's S&P 500 outlook and market scenarios 06:43 Treasury yields, growth assumptions, and valuation multiples 13:03 Technology stocks, CoreWeave, and project financing 18:38 AI debt, vendor financing, and contracted demand 26:09 The AI "reverse bubble" and growth-adjusted valuations 31:09 Fed expectations and the 10-year Treasury yield 38:14 Jay Hatfield's critique of the Fed and inflation data 43:12 Could the Fed change its inflation target? 47:48 Dividend yield, PEGY, and corporate reinvestment 55:23 Stock selection, catalysts, and individual covered calls 01:00:23 The long-term investing lesson: valuation and compounding Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  7. 29 Oct

    The S&P 500 Is Just 50 Stocks. The Nasdaq Is a 67% AI Bet. Kai Wu on What Else Is Hiding in Your Funds

    Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital shows how to uncover hidden AI exposure, overlapping ETF holdings, and unintended factor bets in your portfolio. Owning several funds can still leave you dependent on the same companies and the same AI spending cycle. In this episode of Excess Returns, Kai joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau for a walkthrough of Sparkline Analytics. Using examples from the S&P 500, Nasdaq, emerging markets, and active funds, they examine what investors actually own beneath the fund labels. Kai explains his distinction between AI infrastructure, early adopters, and laggards, then demonstrates how factor analysis, intangible asset data, and a portfolio builder can help investors ask better questions about diversification and manager performance. Explore Sparkline Analytics: https://app.sparklinecapital.com/ Topics covered: How AI infrastructure exposure can overlap across the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and thematic AI fundsWhy Kai Wu distinguishes AI early adopters from infrastructure builders and laggardsHow rising capital expenditures can change the economics of formerly asset-light businessesWhy a fund's number of holdings can overstate its diversificationHow semiconductor exposure can connect emerging markets to the same AI tradeThe trade-off between reducing AI infrastructure exposure and increasing exposure to laggardsWhat ARKK illustrates about separating stock selection from factor headwindsWhy dividend, value, and low-volatility funds can have similar underlying exposuresHow patents, R&D, and human capital reveal assets traditional value metrics can missUsing fund comparisons and portfolio look-through tools to identify overlapping positionsChapters: 00:00 Sparkline Analytics and hidden AI exposure in the S&P 500 08:05 AI adopters, laggards, and multinational businesses 12:47 How index exposure changes as the AI cycle evolves 20:41 Does adding an AI fund diversify your portfolio? 25:44 Capital spending and effective portfolio concentration 30:14 Capital intensity and AI exposure beyond Big Tech 35:44 Diversifying without retreating into AI laggards 40:48 Screening funds and looking inside ARKK 46:11 Separating stock-picking alpha from factor exposure 52:35 Dividend, value, and low-volatility fund overlap 57:52 Intangible value and a fund-diligence checklist 01:05:39 Building a portfolio and looking through its holdings 01:10:39 Where to find Sparkline Analytics Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  8. 27 Oct

    Dr. Daniel Crosby on Behaviorally Optimal Portfolios, Risk Composure and the Casino Myth

    Daniel Crosby explains why investors can lose money in winning funds and how to build a portfolio they can actually hold. Picking the right investment is only part of the challenge; staying with it through discomfort is where behavior can overwhelm the plan. In this episode of Excess Returns, psychologist and Orion Chief Behavioral Officer Daniel Crosby joins Matt Zeigler to discuss the new paperback edition of The Behavioral Investor. Daniel shares the story of a fund that returned over 18% annually for a decade while its average investor lost money, then explains how safety, stability, and success portfolios can help align investment decisions with human psychology. They also explore gambling apps, the limits of risk questionnaires, social media feedback loops, and the human side of financial advice in an AI-driven world. Topics covered: - Why a fund's returns can look very different from the returns its investors earn - Building safety, stability, and success buckets around different financial needs - The differences between risk tolerance, risk capacity, and risk composure - Why knowing what to do does not guarantee doing it during a drawdown - Daniel Crosby's case for rules, diversification, and meaningful benchmark differences - How sports betting and prediction markets blur the distinction between investing and gambling - Why recent market experience can create unrealistic expectations about future returns - Education, environment, and encouragement as tools for changing investor behavior - How algorithms reinforce market biases and why excitement can signal a blind spot - Where AI can free financial advisors to spend more time on human relationships The Behavioral Investor - paperback edition:https://link.amazon/B00hgkHGG Daniel Crosby on X: https://x.com/danielcrosby Orion Behavioral Finance: https://orion.com/behavioral-finance Research discussed: The heat of the moment: the effect of sexual arousal on sexual decision making https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/bdm.501 Chapters: 00:00 Daniel Crosby and The Behavioral Investor 04:51 Why winning funds can have losing investors 11:46 Risk tolerance, capacity, and composure 17:38 Stability portfolios and rules-based stock selection 23:06 Investing, gambling, and prediction markets 27:27 Recency bias and unrealistic return expectations 31:30 Addictive apps and changing investor behavior 35:48 Investor distractions and the media diet 40:51 Investment excitement, humility, and AI 45:00 What music reveals about consistency and experimentation 49:29 Where to find Daniel Crosby and the book Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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  • Creator
    Excess Returns
  • Years Active
    2019 - 2026
  • Episodes
    588
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 905628
  • Show Website
    Excess Returns

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