Eurodollar University Jeff Snider

Consumer confidence has dropped sharply over the past few months as Americans are now more concerned about jobs and incomes than prices. The shift has been so pronounced that even members of the mainstream media are questioning FOMC officials. Hardly strong and resilient, there's rising unemployment and declining confidence mixed with a bevy corporate warnings.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
FRB Chair Jay Powell Press Conference June 12, 2024https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqaxWf7gsQATranscript:https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20240612.pdf
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

Conventional 'wisdom' says that when US$ interest rates go down the dollar goes down with them. Yet, it hasn't been uncommon to find Treasury yields falling as the dollar's exchange value jumps. When that has happened, nothing good comes from it. We're starting to see what looks to be that scenario setting up right now. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates
I said the payroll number is wrong and Jay Powell of all people agrees. But if the real question is how wrong, that's where the debate is even though it should already be settled. There is plenty of evidence the US is tilting in the direction of the HH Survey and unemployment rate. And that includes the rates market which ignored the FOMC's hawkish dots. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Jay Powell's Press Conferencehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3ZE5tF_IMU
CNBC Quotes from Jay Powell Press Conferencehttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/fed-meeting-today-live-updates-on-june-fed-rate-decision.html
Politico Biden’s economy: Good metrics, bad vibes, few levershttps://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/07/biden-has-an-economic-story-to-tell-and-yet-00162338
Guardian Majority of Americans wrongly believe US is in recession – and most blame Bidenhttps://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/poll-economy-recession-biden
BLS Business Employment Dynamics Summaryhttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.nr0.htm
Table 4'https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.t04.htm
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates
Walgreens is the latest Big Name to cut prices because Americans have run out of money. As the company's prices go down, those will add even more to the disinflationary environment; and that's the bad side of smaller price changes. Today's May CPI completely backs up everything we've been seeing. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Walgreens Walgreens Introduces Summer of Savingshttps://www.walgreensbootsalliance.com/news-media/press-releases/2024/walgreens-introduces-summer-savings
Quartz Amazon, Walmart, and Big Retail’s race to cut priceshttps://qz.com/target-walmart-amazon-walgreens-price-cuts-consumers-1851507920
Bloomberg  Big Oil’s Blockbuster $114 Billion Investor Payout Is Most Everhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-07/big-oil-pays-out-record-114-billion-in-share-buybacks-and-dividends
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Last week's ECB rate cut was...odd. Sure, officials had said for months they were going to do it. Yet, the conditions that would have to be met were not. Policymakers went ahead anyway and this past weekend's developments are a big Big Picture reason why. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Italy’s Tajani Calls for Quick Second ECB Cut After June Movehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-05/italy-s-tajani-calls-for-quick-second-ecb-cut-after-june-move
The Times Back me for low interest rates, Rishi Sunak tells votershttps://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rishi-sunak-tories-interest-rates-general-election-962mpcmjx
AP UK inflation lowest in 3 years. Prime Minister Sunak makes it a focus in election call for July 4https://apnews.com/article/britain-economy-inflation-interest-rates-090db19af939b9c532da1fb15ab40a0a
LeMonde Moody's warns that France's snap election could lower credit ratinghttps://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/06/11/moody-s-warns-that-french-snap-election-could-lower-credit-rating_6674498_7.html#
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates
Consumer credit has historically been a solid recession signal, particularly how consumers alter their usage of credit cards. Some of that by choice, for many it is the bank's. Either way, when this happens it is more compelling evidence backing the rise in the unemployment rate.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
September 2008 FOMC Transcripthttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20080916meeting.pdf
March 2001 FOMC Transcripthttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20010320meeting.pdf
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU