Click Beta

Excess Returns
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A futurist, a financial planner and a special guest walk into a (virtual) bar, each carrying an investing topic the others don't know in advance. Join Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler for unscripted conversations about markets, the economy, and whatever else crosses their minds. We hope you'll walk away a more informed investor - but we guarantee you'll enjoy the journey either way

Episodes

  1. 2 DAYS AGO

    The Bull Market Where Everyone Feels Broke | Behind the Rise of Financial Nihilism

    In this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson dive into the concept of financial nihilism, exploring how market behavior, culture, and economic incentives shape decision-making and individual prosperity. We discuss market innovation, the pursuit of supernormal growth, and how these phenomena impact investor psychology, social dynamics, and everyday life. The conversation covers everything from AI-driven trends to personal stories and holiday traditions, drawing connections between larger economic forces and the personal choices people face. Topics covered• Robinhood’s new cash delivery feature and what it signals about financial nihilism• The cultural rise of sports betting, prop betting, and young-generation financial behavior• Whether monopolistic tech returns are sustainable and what underinvestment means for AI• The disconnect between economic data, earnings concentration, and lived experience• Energy constraints, data centers, electricity pricing, and AI’s physical footprint• Homeownership, meaning, values versus value, and generational economic frustration• Why innovation has focused on monetization instead of improving products• Community, novelty, and personal traditions in a world of monoculture• Halloween costumes, Thanksgiving rituals, and family stories Timestamps00:00 Intro, social media innovation, and earnings concentration01:06 Click Beta cold open and banter02:54 Robinhood’s cash-delivery service and financial nihilism06:15 Sports betting, leverage, and the boundaries of market risk09:13 Gambling culture, social impact, and economic despair11:00 Monetization vs product improvement in tech innovation12:45 Meaning, homeownership, and generational disconnect15:00 Values versus value in modern markets17:00 Capitalism, monopolies, and return on invested capital19:00 Underinvestment, complacency, and AI spend21:00 Grid constraints, compute capacity, and electricity24:00 Market concentration and four-year S&P doubling26:00 Consumer sentiment, inequality, and weighted data28:00 AI, data centers, and public infrastructure strain33:00 Closing loop on nihilism and novelty34:00 Halloween costume stories38:53 Thanksgiving traditions43:00 Family themes, novelty, and community52:00 Wrap-up and where to follow the hosts

    54 min

  2. 5 OCT

    The Rate Cut Paradox: When Lower Rates Cool the Economy

    When politics and markets collide, it’s easy to let emotions take over. In this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig, and Cameron Dawson break down the latest government shutdown, how politics really impact markets (if at all), and what investors should pay attention to amid the noise. They also explore whether AI spending could mirror past bubbles, how Fed rate cuts might hurt the very consumers they’re meant to help, and the importance of creative feedback in work and life—all wrapped in the trio’s signature mix of humor, insight, and surprise topics. Topics covered: • Should investors let politics influence portfolio decisions • How government shutdowns historically impact markets and GDP • The concentration of market gains and “earnings bubbles” in AI-related sectors • Why the Fed cutting rates could slow high-income consumer spending • The rise of prediction markets and “casino capitalism” • Whether the AI boom could lead to one of the biggest wealth redistributions ever • The difference between valuation bubbles and earnings bubbles • How overinvestment cycles in railroads and fiber optics mirror today’s AI buildout • Lessons from editing, feedback, and doing your best creative work • The case for (and against) shushing during yoga Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and cold open 02:00 Politics and investing—should they mix? 06:30 The market’s indifference to shutdowns 10:00 How to tell if news events really matter to markets 12:00 Shutdown effects on GDP and employment 14:00 What could make this shutdown different 17:00 How Fed rate cuts might backfire 20:30 Data blackouts, prediction markets, and Calci 25:00 The psychology of betting and “casino capitalism” 26:50 Market concentration and the “data center blob” 28:30 When the market becomes the economy 29:00 Surprise topic: Will the AI bubble burst? 33:00 Over-earning and capital destruction in past bubbles 36:00 The redistribution effect of AI CapEx 40:00 Creative feedback and doing your best work 47:00 Shushing, silence, and respecting quiet spaces 53:00 Closing thoughts and sign-offs

    55 min

  3. 6 SEPT

    Navigating a Low Trust Market

    In this episode of Click Beta on Excess Returns, Cameron Dawson, Dave Nadig, and Matt Zeigler dive into the trust crisis in markets, the implications of AI-driven CapEx, and how small lessons from life translate into investing wisdom. From the reliability of payroll data to the “bubbles all the way down” problem, the conversation blends deep market insights with practical rituals for navigating uncertainty. Topics Covered The decay of institutional trust and unreliable economic data Public vs. private data and how investors should interpret it “Good news vs. bad news” in markets and earnings reactions AI-related CapEx, margin pressure, and the sustainability of Big Tech’s dominance Winner-take-all dynamics in AI and parallels to the fiber boom Productivity gains: small businesses vs. mega-cap tech Investing lessons from technical analysis, rituals, and “last box” routines The importance of presence, humility vs. hubris, and team culture Democratization of alternatives, fee/tax efficiency, and “hassle efficiency” Timestamps00:00 – The challenge of trusting economic data03:13 – Who do you trust anymore?05:07 – Public vs. private data and the “Strange Landing” thesis07:38 – Good news, bad news dynamics10:20 – Earnings estimates and labor data gaps12:00 – AI-driven CapEx and narrow growth drivers15:00 – Valuation multiples and eroding free cash flow margins18:00 – Winner-take-all risks in AI22:00 – Small business productivity vs. mega-cap adoption27:00 – Rituals, technical analysis, and “the flush deck”31:00 – Always say it out loud: transparency in investing37:00 – Leadership lessons: presence, colleagues, and culture45:00 – Democratization of alternatives and “hassle efficiency”53:40 – Wrapping up: trust, skepticism, and humility

    58 min

  4. 3 AUG

    The Liquidity Trap Door | Why the Market's Only Solution is Also Its Biggest Risk

    What happens when liquidity floods the system, narratives drive markets, and the international investing playbook gets rewritten in real time? In this episode of Click Beta, Cameron Dawson joins Matt Zeigler and Dave Nadig for a wide-ranging conversation that blends sharp macro insight with unfiltered commentary on global markets, thematic investing, valuation risk, and even concert etiquette. From the Mag 7 to Labubu toys to the Church of the SubGenius, this is finance as you've never heard it before. 🔍 Topics Covered: Why international earnings have flatlined since 2007 vs. 150% U.S. earnings growth The role of liquidity in driving asset prices and masking risk Whether dollar weakness could trigger an international bull market The earnings dynamics behind U.S. and European bank rallies Capital flows, tariffs, and the sustainability of international outperformance The search for a "liquidity killer" and the shadow finance risk Why thematic investing often masks lazy portfolio construction The behavioral case for income-focused investing (even when it makes no sense) The future of Total Addressable Markets (TAMs), cult brands, and cultural investing Cameron Dawson’s stance on standing at concerts—and why you should too ⏱️ Timestamps: 00:00 – Global earnings: U.S. vs. International and EM 02:00 – Ground rules and intro banter 03:30 – Why international investing is back in the conversation 06:00 – Earnings stagnation outside the U.S. 08:00 – Capital flows and the dollar’s role in international bull markets 10:00 – Are European banks investable again? 13:00 – The fairy tale of tariffs turning into CapEx 15:00 – Liquidity as the market’s ultimate panacea 18:00 – Shadow banking and the private credit risk stack 21:00 – Valuation as amplifier, not timing tool 23:00 – What could kill the liquidity narrative? 26:00 – Are clients chasing the wrong themes? 28:00 – The case against lazy thematic investing 32:00 – The Church of the SubGenius and embracing small TAMs 35:00 – Cultural signals, talismans, and deeper connections 38:00 – Why do income products exist? Exploring irrational demand 43:00 – Trust structures and gaming distributions 44:30 – Standing at concerts: A live debate 49:00 – The Ozzy Osbourne legacy and Tina Turner on meditation 51:00 – Where to find the hosts and guest online

    52 min

  5. 2 JUL

    The Market That Won’t Break | Why Risk Doesn’t Matter (Yet)

    In this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Jason Buck, andDave Nadig dive deep into the paradoxical world of modern markets wheregeopolitical chaos meets relentless bullish sentiment. From potential World WarIII scenarios to AI companions whispering in your ear, the hosts explore whytraditional market logic seems to have taken a permanent vacation. They discusseverything from the "buy the dip" mentality that refuses to die, towhether behavioral finance textbooks should just be thrown in the trash. It's awide-ranging conversation that touches on energy shocks, the death ofdiversification, and why Gen X might reluctantly have to save us all. MainTopics Covered: - Market Irrationality & Geopolitical Events - Why bombing Iran led to markets going up instead of down,and the complete disconnect between headline risk and market behavior The Deathof Selling - How retail conditioning and systematic flows have createda market where nobody wants to sell, even during potential global conflictsEnergy as the Real Risk - Why oil price spikes worry the hosts more than stockmarket volatility, and what $250-300 oil could mean for the economy MinskyMoments & Wile E. Coyote Markets - The hosts' framework for understanding when stabilitybreeds instability and how long markets can run on thin air InternationalMarkets Outperformance - The surprising reality that US markets are actuallyunderperforming globally, and why Americans don't seem to care AI and theFuture of Cheating at Life - Discussion of Cluey's $16M raise to help people cheat ateverything, and what this means for human authenticity Gen X as ReluctantElders - How the generation that never wanted responsibility mighthave to step up to fix local communities The Mid-Tier Apocalypse - Why everything is becoming either luxury or garbage, withnothing affordable left in between Behavioral Finance Reality Check - Whether studying cognitive biases actually helps when evenDanny Kahneman admits he falls for them all

    1h 11m

  6. 29 MAY

    The Big Beautiful Debt Delusion | The Unpredictable Cost of Endless Borrowing

    n this episode of Click Beta, Dave Nadig, Matt Zeigler, and Jason Buck go deep on the messy realities of U.S. fiscal policy, the politics of taxation and spending, and what it really means to “get our fiscal house in order.” They dig into the latest tax bill, the implications for business owners and local economies, and the broader consequences for American hegemony and cost of capital. Along the way, they explore MMT, VATs, FX sentiment, AI's role in tax planning, and the surprising policy influence of farmers. It’s a candid, unscripted, and often hilarious look at the issues that actually matter.Main Topics Covered:Why the math of austerity doesn’t add upWhat a “fiscal house in order” really looks likeThe hidden consequences of the new tax billState vs. federal policy shiftsLabor, wage incentives, and restaurant economicsMMT, bond markets, and inflation dynamicsThe underrated power of FX as a policy gaugePrivate credit, pork spending, and political realitiesTax planning as the new alpha for advisorsExchange funds, 351 ETFs, and solving concentrated wealthThe commoditization of portfolios and rise of tax-focused RIAs

    1h 7m

  7. 2 MAY

    The Domino's Recession Indicator | The Risks Markets Are Missing

    In this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig, and Jason Buck dive into the complex state of the U.S. economy — from recession signals and tariffs to shifting consumer behavior and surprising cultural trends. With no Google allowed and a shared mission to cut through the noise, the crew brings their personal anecdotes, macro analysis, and economic skepticism to the table. If you’ve ever wondered how the people behind the scenes of financial media actually talk when the cameras are off, this is that conversation. Topics Covered: Why it “feels” like a recession — even if it’s not official The bullwhip effect and what shipping data is telling us Consumer slowdown: anecdotes, vibes, and Domino’s earnings Why tariffs may create hidden entrepreneurial opportunities Services vs goods recessions: which one hits harder? Brand winners and losers: the surprising Chili’s comeback Is Gen X the forgotten generation? How generations might need to collaborate to move forward Do we still care about art, or are we remixing ourselves into oblivion?

    1 hr

  8. 29 MAR

    The Tail Risk Tipping Point

    Join Matt Zeigler, Jason Buck, and Dave Nadig in this unfiltered and dynamic episode of Click Beta from Excess Returns. Feeling "stupid and exhausted" from their daily grind in markets and business, the trio ditches the polished analysis for a raw, behind-the-scenes rant session. With a mix of optimism, pessimism, and plenty of tangents, they dive into pre-agreed and surprise topics—no Google allowed—offering a blend of humor, skepticism, and unscripted insights. From AI breakthroughs to geopolitical powder kegs, this episode is a rollercoaster of ideas, seasoned with their signature banter and a touch of nihilism. **Main Topics Covered:** - **AI’s Right and Left Tails:** The hosts explore AI’s potential for transformative breakthroughs (like rewriting Social Security’s COBOL code) versus its risks, including trust erosion and overhyped promises. - **Tariffs and Economic Policy:** They debate the optimistic case for tariffs reshaping U.S. manufacturing and tax policy (e.g., a VAT system) against the reality of roboticization and political chaos. - **Geopolitical Tensions:** From the U.S. as a fading global bully to speculative left-tail events like Arctic shipping disputes or an accidental spark in Africa, they ponder the end of Pax Americana. - **Community and Legacy:** The conversation shifts to pro-social thinking—how AI might free up time for community, contrasted with musings on legacy, ancestry, and whether it even matters. - **Surprise Topics:** - *Canadian Animosity Toward the U.S.:* Is Canada’s current patriotism a fleeting protest or a lasting shift? - *Broadening Perspectives:* Matt seeks ways to inspire long-term, pro-social thinking in everyday life. - *D.C. Real Estate and Political Scapegoats:* Jason speculates on buying the dip in D.C. housing and Elon Musk as Trump’s potential fall guy. No investment advice here—just three market-weary friends riffing on the world as they see it. Like, subscribe, and share if you enjoyed the chaos!

    1h 14m

  9. 5 MAR

    The Sovereign Wealth Fund Grift

    In this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig, and Jason Buck bring their financial expertise to the table for an unfiltered discussion about today's most pressing economic issues. Unlike other finance podcasts that chase headlines, Click Beta aims to show viewers how industry professionals actually think through complex topics behind the scenes. The hosts dissect current events with a focus on practical implications rather than sensationalism, drawing from their daily interactions with clients and markets. Key topics covered: Strategic Reserves & Sovereign Wealth Funds - A critical examination of recent proposals for a US cryptocurrency reserve and whether sovereign wealth funds make sense for America's economic structure Private Credit Markets - An insider's look at the risks and opportunities in private credit, with warnings about illiquid assets being packaged in liquid wrappers Media Consumption & Analysis - How financial news is framed and packaged, with advice on finding reliable information amid the noise Investment Philosophy - Personal perspectives on portfolio construction in uncertain times, diversification strategies, and the psychology behind financial decision-making Through their conversation, the hosts offer valuable insights for investors trying to separate meaningful market movements from political theater while maintaining a long-term perspective.

    1h 5m

  10. 5 FEB

    Bear Markets, Trade Wars and the Knowledge Worker Recession

    Welcome to Click Beta - where three market professionals cut through the financial clickbait to have real conversations about what matters. In this premiere episode, hosts Matt Zigler, Jason Buck, and Dave Nadig dive into pressing topics like trade wars, tariffs, and their real-world impacts on small businesses and manufacturing. The conversation flows from corporate-subsidized jobs to cryptocurrency grifts, and wraps up with a fascinating discussion about the future of local economies and digital communities. Unlike typical financial content, Click Beta brings you unscripted, unfiltered perspectives from three different corners of the financial world - financial planning, fund management, and product strategy. Join us monthly as we analyze headlines, share insights, and figure out what really matters for investors and professionals alike. Topics covered: Trade wars and tariffs: Impact on small businesses and manufacturing The evolution of local manufacturing and 3D printing Cryptocurrency trends and market dynamics The changing nature of employment and middle-class knowledge work The future of local economies and digital communities Follow Click Beta for monthly conversations that go beyond the headlines and bring you practical insights from experienced market professionals.

    1h 4m
  • 10 Episodes

About

A futurist, a financial planner and a special guest walk into a (virtual) bar, each carrying an investing topic the others don't know in advance. Join Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler for unscripted conversations about markets, the economy, and whatever else crosses their minds. We hope you'll walk away a more informed investor - but we guarantee you'll enjoy the journey either way

Information

  • Creator
    Excess Returns
  • Years Active
    2K
  • Episodes
    10
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Excess Returns
  • Show Website
    Click Beta