Odd Lots

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Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

23 MIN AGO

Brad Setser on the War in Iran and the Future of the US Dollar

It's possible that the war in Iran could reshape financial flows in significant ways. Perhaps the Gulf states will end up as less desirable places to do business. Perhaps Iran will have a tollbooth at the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps this episode will accelerate the world's shift away from oil. It's impossible to say. But given the uncertainty, fresh questions are being raised about the existing financial world order, upon the top of which the US dollar sits. On this episode, we speak once again with Brad Setser, the Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. We discuss how the war is already creating new global imbalances, and the degree to which this episode parallels past energy shocks. We also talk about broader trends in reserve management, other factors driving financial flows, and the unique situation facing East Asia, which is seeing a surge in its energy import bills at the same time its making making a fortune selling chips for the AI boom. Read more: US Probes Suspicious Oil Trades Made Before Trump Pivots China’s $51 Trillion Savings Help Bonds to Outperform During War Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

52 min
1 DAY AGO

War in Iran Is Already Reshaping East Asia's Energy Future

The war in Iran has caused the price of all kinds of commodities to surge, and that has a negative economic impact almost everywhere. But the squeeze is really being felt hard in East Asia, which is the ultimate destination for a lot of oil and gas that come out of the Gulf. And though the Strait of Hormuz may eventually re-open, and the acute pain may pass, this episode may already be reshaping the future. On this episode of the podcast we speak with Alex Turnbull, an investor based in Singapore, and a researcher on energy topics with the Australian National University. He argues that the war will accelerate the region's appetite to restart nuclear power plants, ultimately lessening its dependence on imported natural gas. He also notes that per his channel checks, the region is already seeing a jump in demand for electric vehicles, with BYD dealers holding less and less inventory on hand.Read more: US, Iran Seek More Ceasefire Talks as Blockade Stops ShipsThere Are No Easy Exits From Iran for the US Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

37 min
1 DAY AGO

Presenting What Next TBD: Why Everyone is Freaking out About Private Credit

It's fueling the A.I. bubble, it's coming to your retirement portfolio—and it's flashing a lot of warning signs right now.In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, private credit or “shadow banking” grew as an alternative to the regulations and shared risk that institutional banks operate within. What happens if a crisis hits the trillions of dollars that are outside of those guardrails? We may be about to find out. Guest: Tracy Alloway, co-host of Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast.https://slate.com/podcasts/what-next-tbd See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

37 min
3 DAYS AGO

Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf

Regardless of whether the war with Iran continues, it seems likely to have a lasting impact on the Gulf states. They may have to rebuild damaged pipelines and other infrastructure, or create new ones that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. They might have to spend more money on their own defense, or intensify a push to diversify their economies away from oil. New political alliances may be formed, and old ones could fall apart. In this episode, we bring back Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist at Bloomberg Economics, to discuss the many ways the war could impact the region for years to come. Read more: Gulf Airspace Disruptions From Iran War Hits Seychelles Tourism Bankers Start Weighing UAE Return Hours After US-Iran Ceasefire Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

45 min
5 DAYS AGO

The Big Macro Force That's Been Driving Stocks Higher for Years

Stocks have gone up over the years because corporate earnings continue to grow. That part is straightforward. But in addition to rising stock prices, we've also seen rising stock market valuations. For years, investors have talked about stocks being unreasonably priced, and yet they haven't reverted to historical norms. But perhaps there's a good explanation for this, beyond just animal spirits. Jonathan Heathcote is an economist at the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, who recently co-authored a paper titled, A Macroeconomic Perspective on Stock Market Valuation Ratios. Along with co-authors Andrew Atkeson and Fabrizio Perri, they argue that while stocks may look rich on metrics like price-to-earnings ratios, they look a lot better when based on free cash flow. In other words, because companies haven't had to invest much, their equity is more valuable. Furthermore, labor's share of the profits — the percentage that goes to workers relative to capital — has been on the decline. Of course, these days the big story is about how big, profitable tech companies are spending a fortune on capital expenditure for the AI buildout. So we talked to Jonathan about his research and discuss the possibility that this trend in free cash flow growth could reverse, and therefore hit stock market valuations, too. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

36 min
6 DAYS AGO

How Shipping Insurance Really Works During a War

When the conflict with Iran started, some of the first headlines we saw had to do with shipping insurance. Marine insurers were said to be canceling war risk coverage for vessels going through the Strait of Hormuz. Premiums were said to surge. Meanwhile, the Trump administration announced it would offer its own insurance for ships traversing the Persian Gulf, in an effort to get things moving again. So why is insurance such a crucial part of maritime trade? And how does the system actually work? In this episode, we speak with Dorothea Ioannou, CEO of the American P&I Club, and Steven Ogullukian, the club's reinsurance director. We talk about the different roles of insurers, reinsurers, insurance clubs, and why ships need to have separate coverage for things like war, liability and hull loss. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

53 min
9 APR

Thomas Peterffy on Interactive Brokers' Plan to Professionalize Prediction Markets

Right now, when you think about prediction markets, you basically think about two main companies: Polymarket and Kalshi. And then when you think of what's being traded on those platforms, there's a whole range of stuff from elections to sports to real economic outcomes, to totally gonzo random stuff, like who will win the next season of Big Brother. So far, sports is where a lot of the money is. But at least in theory, prediction markets could be a popular instrument for professional, institutional traders. Thomas Peterffy is the founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers, one of the most successful and groundbreaking electronic brokerages for both institutions and serious retail traders. Now Interactive Brokers is getting into the predictions space. In this episode, we talk to Peterffy on why he believes prediction markets will be the next big thing in markets, why he thinks his firm could be a major player, and what it will take to transform the space from a large curiosity to something seriously used by institutions.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

51 min
8 APR

Search Engine Presents: Are you a good driver?

The story of how a secret project at Google led to driverless cars on American roads. And, an answer to the question: are the robots actually safer drivers than we are? Find Part 2: “The Trial of the Driverless Car” HERE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

1hr 8min

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Joe Weisenthal

Host
Tracy Alloway

Host
Alex Turnbull

Guest
Ziad Daoud

Guest
Jonathan Heathcote

Guest
Dorothea Ioannou

Guest
Steve Ogullukian

Guest
Thomas Peterffy

Guest
Gina Raimondo

Guest
Scott Bok

Guest

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Channel

Bloomberg
Creator

Bloomberg
Years Active

2015 - 2026
Episodes

1.2k
Rating

Clean
Copyright

2026 iHeartMedia, Inc. © Any use of this intellectual property for text and data mining or computational analysis including as training material for artificial intelligence systems is strictly prohibited without express written consent from iHeartMedia
Show Website

Odd Lots
Provider

Bloomberg L.P.