Competent Man Podcast

Tom Bodrovics
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This isn’t just another podcast—it’s a movement for thinkers, doers, and anyone ready to step up and become the best version of themselves, one skill at a time. Bringing you a wide range of content so come with an open mind and a sense of adventure!

Episodes

  1. 7 HR AGO

    Danielle DiMartino Booth: Warsh’s Fed Takeover | A Quiet Coup Brewing?

    Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, for a discussion on the economic landscape and the Federal Reserve’s role. DiMartino Booth highlights the complexities surrounding Jerome Powell’s potential departure from the Fed, noting that while Powell has faced criminal charges, he is likely to stay to protect his integrity and prevent a Trump-appointed successor. She draws a historical parallel to Mariner Eccles’ tenure, suggesting that Powell’s presence ensures a separation between the Treasury and the Fed’s monetary policy. The conversation also touches on the Fed’s communication strategies and the potential for a liquidity crisis, with DiMartino Booth advising incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to prepare for such an event. Danielle emphasizes that the U.S. is already in a recession, evidenced by job losses and GDP revisions. She points out the impact of rising oil prices and the potential for a prolonged recession, noting that the oil shock could exacerbate existing economic issues. Danielle also explores the implications of high levels of household debt and the potential for a debt jubilee or other unconventional economic measures. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:00:40 – Powell’s Reasons to Stay00:02:51 – Eccles Historical Precedent00:04:08 – Fed Re-engineering Ideas00:06:13 – Internal Fed Dissent00:08:17 – Advice for Kevin Warsh00:09:35 – Liquidity Crisis Strategies00:11:33 – Real Estate Credit Woes00:14:33 – Recession Thresholds?00:17:13 – Job Losses Analysis00:19:26 – Credit Market Warnings00:21:19 – Midterm Election Risks00:23:08 – Policy Tools Discussion00:25:12 – AI-Proofing Career Advice00:26:49 – Monitoring MOVE Index00:27:48 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:X: https://x.com/DiMartinoBoothSubstack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/Website: https://quillintelligence.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm. DiMartino Booth set out to launch a Research Revolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets. Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth’s The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more. A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.

    30 min

  2. 1 DAY AGO

    Josh Young: $200 Oil | Latest Iran Peace Deal Won’t Stop It

    Tom welcomes Josh Young, CIO of Bison Interests, to discuss the potential for a prolonged and sticky energy shock stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iranian conflict. He emphasizes the profound uncertainty surrounding the conflict’s duration, noting that neither military participants nor analysts can predict its timeline, which explains recent oil price volatility. Young challenges the prevailing view that global oil inventories of roughly 8.4 billion barrels are insufficient, arguing that the system can absorb a much larger drawdown—potentially another billion barrels or more—before facing severe physical shortages. He warns that as inventories deplete, the relationship between supply and price becomes nonlinear, with prices potentially accelerating from $125 to $200 or $250 per barrel if the strait remains closed for several more months. Young also addresses the resilience of energy infrastructure, observing that refineries and export facilities often return to operation faster than expected due to spare equipment and skilled labor, though LNG facilities face unique supply chain constraints. He notes that general equity markets have largely ignored the crisis, partly because energy stocks represent only about 4% of the S&P 500, but also due to institutional underallocation and a persistent belief that oil is a declining industry. This creates a favorable environment for energy investors, as companies buy back stock at discounts and pay high dividends. Finally, Young highlights the risk of AI-generated misinformation, particularly in financial markets, and stresses the growing value of original, critical analysis over algorithmically produced content. He concludes that while high oil prices could devastate emerging economies, the current moderate prices suggest significant upside potential remains. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:00:26 – Strait of Hormuz Closure00:01:53 – Market Ignoring Conflict00:03:43 – Oil Inventory Drawdown00:07:33 – Non-Linear Price Dynamics00:17:13 – Recent Infrastructure Attacks00:20:21 – Global Energy ‘Explosions’00:23:33 – Infrastructure Resilience Analysis00:26:24 – LNG Crude Recovery Differences00:29:19 – Fuel Shortages Impacts00:39:25 – UAE Leaving OPEC00:44:34 – Equity Markets Response00:50:29 – Gold Leading Oil & Fiat01:00:00 – AI Info Feedback Loop01:09:06 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:Substack: https://bisoninsights.infoX: https://x.com/BisonInsightsWebsite: https://bisoninterests.com Joshua Young has been professionally investing in publicly traded oil and gas securities for nearly two decades, achieving benchmark outperformance as Bison’s CIO. Josh possesses a deep understanding of the E&P business model and operating environment, with notable experience as Chairman of Canadian E&P company RMP Energy (rebranded as Ironbridge Resources). Under Josh’s leadership, the company achieved a successful turnaround, outperforming peers and ultimately being acquired at a 78% premium. Josh is the author of numerous articles on oil & gas investments and is a frequent guest speaker at various energy industry conferences. Prior to Bison, Josh began his career as a management consultant for Fortune 500 companies and private equity firms. He later worked as an investment analyst for a private equity fund and served as an energy investment analyst at a multi-billion-dollar single-family office, which was nominated as Institutional Investor’s Single Family Office of the Year in 2008. Josh holds a B.S. in Economics with honors from the University of Chicago.

    1hr 10min

  3. 30 APR

    Willem Middelkoop: Escape the Crash – Ride the Gold Supercycle

    Willem Middelkoop, author of “The Big Reset” and founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund, discusses the geopolitical and economic impacts of recent conflicts, particularly the war in Ukraine and tensions around Iran. He argues that the U.S. has lost significant geopolitical influence, while China has gained, and the Strait of Hormuz’s closure has put pressure on oil prices. Middelkoop predicts that oil prices could reach $150 per barrel to achieve real demand destruction, leading to a worldwide recession. He also warns of a potential sovereign debt crisis, citing Jamie Dimon’s concerns about a severe downturn in credit markets. Middelkoop highlights the shifting dynamics in the mining industry, with governments now recognizing the importance of critical metals. He expects a multi-decade bull market in commodities due to shortages, currency debasement, and geopolitical tensions. Despite recent sell-offs, he sees gold and silver as safe havens and expects higher prices, especially as central banks continue to buy gold. He also discusses the potential for a silver short squeeze and the impact of higher energy prices on mining margins. The conversation touches on the broader implications for the global economy, including the potential for a new international monetary architecture and the role of gold. Middelkoop emphasizes the importance of diversification and risk management, noting that his fund has adopted a more defensive stance with a large cash position. He also discusses the potential for nuclear and renewable energy sources to gain prominence due to the current energy crisis. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:00:28 – Peace Scenario in Conflicts00:02:58 – Oil Prices and Supply00:06:38 – Sovereign Debt Crisis00:09:16 – Market Correction Risks00:11:14 – Dirty Industry & Recognition00:12:45 – Commodity Bull Market Outlook00:15:38 – Gold Sell-Off Explanation00:18:27 – Gold’s Monetary Reset Role00:21:37 – Declining Mine Production Trends00:23:47 – Silver Price Surge Potential00:28:56 – Nuclear Energy Acceleration00:30:47 – Commodity Diversification Strategies00:42:40 – Importance of Research00:44:55 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:Commodity Discover Fund: https://www.cdfund.comX: https://x.com/@wmiddelkoopWillem Middelkoop: https://substack.com/@wmiddelkoop Willem Middelkoop is the founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and also an author. He became a well-known personality through his work as a stock market commentator for the Dutch business television channel RTLZ. Middelkoop predicted the credit crisis’s onset in his book “Als de dollar valt” (If the dollar falls) in 2007. Subsequent publications were “De permanente oliecrisis” (The permanent oil crisis) – 2008, “Overleef de kredietcrisis” (Surviving the credit crisis) – 2009, “Goud en het geheim van geld” (Gold and the secret of money) – 2012, and The Big Reset – 2013. In total, he sold more than 100,000 copies of his books. The Commodity Discovery Fund was established in the summer of 2008. It started with three million euros and 22 participants. By the end of 2023, it had grown to about 2,000 participants and €104 million in assets under management.

    47 min

  4. 29 APR

    Martin Armstrong: How Debt Crisis Could Spark Further Global Chaos

    Martin Armstrong, CEO & Chairman of Armstrong Economics, shares his insights on global politics, economic strategies, and the current geopolitical landscape with host Tom Bodrovics. Armstrong, with 50 years of experience, critiques the lack of long-term strategic thinking in governments, citing examples such as the Iran and Ukraine conflicts. He argues that leaders often prioritize short-term gains, like winning the next election, over addressing critical issues like national debt and defense spending. Armstrong also discusses the impact of the national debt, highlighting that interest expenditures are now exceeding military expenditures, a situation he finds alarming yet predictable. Armstrong delves into the complexities of the Middle East, particularly the Iranian conflict, and the strategic blunders made by various administrations. He criticizes the lack of foresight in military interventions, using the Iraq War as an example, and warns about the potential for a sovereign debt crisis in the Middle East, which could have far-reaching economic consequences. He also discusses the interconnectedness of global economies and the potential for a liquidity crisis caused by the Iranian war, affecting not just oil but also critical resources like fertilizer and copper. The conversation also touches on the political landscape in the United States and Europe, with Armstrong expressing concern about the infiltration of government by individuals with personal vendettas, leading to endless wars and political instability. He criticizes the lack of strategic thinking in current leadership, using examples like the Biden administration and the influence of figures like Netanyahu and Zelensky. Armstrong predicts a steep recession in the United States and a depression in Europe by 2028, driven by economic policies and geopolitical tensions. Armstrong’s pessimistic outlook extends to the future of global politics, suggesting that the current system is broken and in need of a major overhaul. He proposes a direct democracy as a potential solution, where citizens vote on critical issues like war, rather than leaving decisions to a small group of unelected officials. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:04:35 – Leaders’ Strategic Shortcomings00:05:27 – Incentivizing Better Politicians00:09:18 – Washington Lacks Intelligence00:12:30 – Upcoming Conflict Escalation00:16:07 – EU Election Rigging00:19:45 – US Dollar Reserve Strength00:25:22 – Sovereign Debt Crisis00:29:45 – Strait Hormuz Ramifications00:33:20 – Iran’s Educated Society00:35:22 – Energy Crisis Comparison00:42:35 – Fertilizer & Cost Push Inflation00:50:53 – Neocon Influence on Trump01:00:09 – Government Infiltration01:07:38 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:Website: https://armstrongeconomics.comX: https://x.com/strongeconomicsFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/martin.armstrong.167Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/ybtrslr9 Martin Armstrong is the Owner and Researcher for the website Armstrong Economics. He is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed. At age 13, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. After buying a bag of rare Canadian pennies, he became a millionaire in 1965 at the age of 15. He continued to work on weekends through high school, finding the real-world exciting, for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard. Martin became captivated by this shocking revelation that there were not just booms and busts, but also peaks and valleys that would last centuries. Armstrong progressed from gold coin investments to following commodity prices for precious metals. In 1973, he began publishing commodity market predictions as a hobby, and in 1983 Armstrong began accepting paid subscriptions for a forecast newsletter. “In Armstrong’s view of the world where boom-bust cycles occur like clockwork every 8.6 years, what matters is his record as a forecaster. He called Russia’s financial collapse in 1998, using a model that also pointed to a peak just before the Japanese stock market crashed in 1989. These days, as the European sovereign-debt crisis roils markets worldwide, he reminds readers of his October 1997 prediction that the creation of the euro “will merely transform currency speculation into bond speculation,” leading to the system’s eventual collapse.” His Website Armstrong Economics offers a unique perspective intended to educate the public and organizations on the global economic and political environment’s underlying trends. Their mission is to research historical cyclical trends.

    1hr 9min

  5. 24 APR

    Steve Todoruk: Deglobalization is Creating the Next Mining Boom

    Tom welcomes Steve Todoruk, a geoscientist and investment executive with Sprott Wealth Management, to discuss his extensive experience in the junior mining sector and his current focus on identifying promising investment opportunities in gold, silver, and copper. Steve’s background in running mining companies has given him a unique perspective on the industry, enabling him to appreciate the challenges and opportunities faced by mining companies and investors alike. He highlights the strong fundamentals supporting gold prices, including central banks’ increased gold holdings and the metal’s scarcity. Steve believes that gold prices will remain robust as long as central banks continue to accumulate gold, and he sees no immediate signs of a market top. Todoruk also emphasizes the importance of cost management in mining, noting that as long as mining costs remain under $2,000 an ounce, mining companies should continue to make strong profits. The discussion touches on the impact of geopolitical tensions on gold and silver prices, with Todoruk expressing satisfaction with the metals’ performance despite recent market volatility. He also notes that higher metal prices have enabled mining companies to strengthen their balance sheets and invest in exploration, creating a positive feedback loop for the industry. Todoruk’s investment strategy focuses on identifying companies with strong catalysts for growth, such as significant new discoveries or the acquisition of non-core assets from major mining companies. He prefers to invest in tranches, gradually building positions in promising companies as they release positive drill results and grow their deposits. Todoruk is also open to investing in mid-tier producers that have acquired non-core assets from majors, as these companies can generate strong cash flow and have multiple catalysts for growth. Throughout the discussion, Todoruk emphasizes the importance of having a knowledgeable guide in the junior mining sector, as the complexities of the industry can be challenging for individual investors to navigate. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:00:15 – Mining Company Lessons00:01:34 – Gold Bull Cycle Position00:03:24 – Identifying Market Tops00:05:44 – Higher Prices Industry Impact00:08:08 – Exploration Funding Dynamics00:10:15 – Discovery and Catalyst Stories00:12:33 – Investment Strategy Overview00:14:58 – Lassonde Curve – Timeframes00:17:48 – Majors’ Acquisition Behavior00:21:40 – De-globalization in Mining00:25:10 – Other Commodities Focus00:27:10 – Gold Price Projections00:31:02 – Lessons from Rick Rule00:35:29 – Wrap Up Guest Links:Website: https://sprott.com/E-Mail: mailto://stodoruk@sprottglobal.com Steve Todoruk is an Investment Executive at Sprott Wealth Management. He has been with the firm since 2003. A Professional Geoscientist in good standing in British Columbia, Mr. Todoruk brings more than four decades of experience across the mining and exploration industry. He earned a BS in Geology from the University of British Columbia in 1985. He began his career as a field geologist, working with both major and junior exploration companies across Canada and the southwestern United States. He also gained hands-on operational experience underground in a Canadian mine, operating heavy equipment to deepen his understanding of the industry. From 1993 to early 2003, Mr. Todoruk served as president of two Canadian-based junior exploration companies and was a principal in a mineral exploration consulting and engineering firm. Throughout his career, he has played a key role in financing the resource sector, participating in or arranging transactions that have raised hundreds of millions of dollars to advance exploration projects. In recognition of his perseverance and long-standing commitment to early-stage exploration, Mr. Todoruk was awarded the 2019 Murray Pezim Award. His efforts have contributed to the development and advancement of numerous significant metal discoveries. Investment Risks and Important Disclosure Future stock price action is purely speculative, and any discussion of differing scenarios is purely illustrative. Given the nature of the mining business, exposure to those equities may be more volatile than an investment in more diversified issuers, potentially declining rapidly in a very short period of time. Relative to other sectors, precious metals and natural resources investments have higher headline risk and are more sensitive to changes in economic data, political or regulatory events, and underlying commodity price fluctuations. Risks related to extraction, storage and liquidity should also be considered. Gold and precious metals are referred to with terms of art like “store of value,” “safe haven” and “safe asset.” These terms should not be construed to guarantee any form of investment safety. While “safe” assets like gold, Treasuries, money market funds and cash generally do not carry a high risk of loss relative to other asset classes, any asset may lose value, which may involve the complete loss of invested principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You cannot invest directly in an index. Investments, commentary and opinions are unique and may not be reflective of any other Sprott entity or affiliate. Forward-looking language should not be construed as predictive. While third-party sources are believed to be reliable, Sprott makes no guarantee as to their accuracy or timeliness. This information does not constitute an offer or solicitation and may not be relied upon or considered to be the rendering of tax, legal, accounting or professionaladvice.

    36 min

  6. 23 APR

    Alasdair Macleod: Silver Shortage 🚨Alert🚨China’s Export Ban, Hoarding, is Squeezing Inventory

    Your host Tom Bodrovics and Alasdair Macleod, Head of Research for GoldMoney and author of the Macleod Finance Substack, discuss the significant financial stresses exacerbated by the ongoing war and pre-existing economic issues. Macleod highlights that government finances, particularly in G7 economies, are heavily reliant on deficit spending, creating an unsustainable situation. He also notes that the value of commodities priced in gold has fallen to unusually low levels, indicating an underlying bull market in commodities, which includes oil and other energy sources. The war in the Persian Gulf has accelerated the rise in commodity prices, leading to significant inflationary pressures and potential bond market stress. The US, with a massive debt overhang and short-term debt maturities, faces a challenging situation. Macleod emphasizes that the Fed, driven by political pressures, will likely intervene to prevent an economic slump, potentially leading to a rapid devaluation of the dollar. He compares the current situation to the 1970s UK, where high bond yields and inflation led to economic turmoil. Macleod also discusses the potential for Japan and China to sell US Treasuries due to their energy dependence and geopolitical tensions, further complicating the US Treasury market. The conversation touches on the petro-dollar system, with Macleod suggesting a transition to a petro-yuan system as China and other countries move away from the dollar. Regarding gold and silver, Macleod noted that China’s recent changes in silver exports and imports have significantly impacted global markets, with China now focusing on stockpiling silver for its own industrial needs. He predicted that rising bond yields and inflation will ultimately drive the collapse of fiat currencies, making gold and silver attractive as stores of value. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:00:45 – Pre-War Financial Stresses00:04:33 – US Debt Rollover Challenges00:08:03 – Fed’s Political Dilemma00:11:01 – Lessons from German Hyperinflation00:13:30 – GDP as Misleading Metric00:17:46 – Japan China Treasury Sales00:24:15 – Petro Dollar Yuan Transition00:33:35 – Gold Silver Market Dynamics00:40:45 – Catalysts for Metals Surge00:44:02 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:X: https://x.com/MacleodFinanceSubstack: https://substack.com/@macleodfinanceWebsite:: https://goldmoney.comResearch: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/ Alasdair Macleod is Head of Research for GoldMoney. He is an educator and advocates for sound money thru demystifying finance and economics. His background includes being a stockbroker, banker, and economist. Alasdair started his career as a stockbroker in 1970 on the London Stock Exchange. Within nine years, he had risen to become senior partner of his firm. Subsequently, he held positions at the director level in investment management and worked as a mutual fund manager. Mr. Macleod also worked at a bank in Guernsey as an executive director. For most of his 40 years in the finance industry, he has been demystifying macro-economic events for his investing clients. The accumulation of this experience has convinced him that unsound monetary policies are the most destructive weapon governments use against the common man. Accordingly, his mission is to educate and inform the public in layman’s terms what governments do with money and how to protect themselves from the consequences.

    46 min

  7. 16 APR

    Rory Johnston: 13 Million Barrels Per Day Missing, Why Aren’t Markets Reacting?

    Tom Bodrovics welcomes Rory Johnston, a commodity market researcher specializing in oil and gas, to discuss the current state of the global energy market. Johnston highlights the unprecedented situation where OPEC+ output reached an all-time low last month, and the significant impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on global oil supplies. Johnston notes that over 90 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) are headed to the US Gulf Coast to pick up crude, a situation that has gained attention, including from former President Trump. This influx of tankers is due to the Middle East being functionally offline and China banning the export of refined products, making the US and Canada the most energy-secure areas. Johnston explains that the current market dynamics are driven by a significant backwardation in the futures market, where the price of oil for immediate delivery is much higher than for future delivery. This is due to the acute shortages in areas that previously relied on Middle Eastern fuel, leading to a scramble for available supplies. He emphasizes that the market is not creating new oil but rather shuffling existing supplies to areas willing to pay more. The discussion also touches on the potential for the US to supply the global shortfall and the implications of tapping into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Johnston believes that some of the SPR releases will likely be exported, given the high demand and the need to balance global supplies. He also notes the potential for resource nationalism and the political considerations that could influence oil trade policies. Johnston warns that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the global oil market could face severe shortages, leading to significant price increases and potential demand destruction. He highlights the importance of understanding the physical market dynamics versus the futures market, which often moves much faster. The interview concludes with Johnston emphasizing the need to follow the crisis closely, as the physical impact on the oil market will continue to worsen as long as Hormuz remains closed. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:01:16 – Viral Tanker Tweet/Trump00:03:31 – US Supply Shortfall00:06:47 – Sustaining Output Levels00:08:15 – Market Reaction Weirdness00:09:07 – Backwardation Explained00:11:45 – Pre-War Oversupply Context00:18:24 – Physical Market Lags00:21:00 – Hormuz Blockade Impact00:24:30 – Iran’s Negotiation Strategy00:28:34 – China, Chokepoints, & Russia00:38:06 – LPG and Product Shortages00:44:53 – Demand Destruction Risks00:50:05 – Price Shocks & Inelastic Markets Guest Links:Substack: https://www.commoditycontext.com/X: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.). Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.

    55 min

  8. 14 APR

    London Paul: Energy Shocks, Silver Crisis, Food Shortages & Financial Collapse Ahead

    Tom Bodrovics welcomes back London Paul, publisher of ‘The Sirius Report,’ together they delve into the complexities and implications of the ongoing war, focusing on the missteps and strategic failures of the U.S. and its allies. Paul critiques the initial decision to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Kamehni, arguing that it was a strategic blunder that galvanized Iranian resistance rather than ending the conflict. He highlights the U.S.’s underestimation of Iran’s capabilities, both defensively and offensively, and the failure to achieve stated objectives such as regime change, destruction of nuclear facilities, and control over strategic waterways like the Strait of Hormuz. The discussion touches on the U.S.’s desperate search for an “off-ramp” to exit the war without appearing defeated, particularly in light of upcoming midterm elections. Paul noted that the U.S. has failed to achieve any of its stated objectives and is now scrambling to find a way to declare victory. Paul also discusses the broader geopolitical implications, including the strengthening of the IRGC, Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential for a prolonged conflict that could have catastrophic global consequences. Economically, Paul warns of the potential for severe energy shortages and food disruptions, which could lead to hyperinflation and social unrest. He emphasizes the need for coordinated global action to mitigate these risks and prevent a prolonged conflict that could destabilize the entire Middle East and beyond. The conversation also touches on the potential for a silver shortage and the impact on precious metals markets, given silver’s critical role in industrial applications and its potential as a monetary metal. Paul advises listeners to be cautious of misinformation and to prepare for potential disruptions in energy and food supplies. He also highlights the broader geopolitical shifts, including the potential decline of U.S. influence in the Middle East and the strengthening of Iran’s regional power. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:00:20 – Current War Summary00:03:17 – US Objectives Failures00:05:58 – Iranian Military Capabilities00:07:32 – US Off-Ramp Challenges00:10:30 – Failed Uranium Seizure00:13:25 – Peace Talks Breakdown00:16:00 – Regime Change Goals00:22:42 – Energy Impacts China00:29:13 – Global Oil Supplies00:35:45 – Supply Chain Disruptions00:42:36 – Silver Market Dynamics00:53:01 – Financial System Risks01:03:20 – US-Iran Historical Context01:09:10 – Wrap Up Guest Links:X: https://x.com/thesiriusreportWebsite: https://www.thesiriusreport.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@thesiriusreport The Sirius Report is an independent website providing analysis and an alternative perspective on current affairs and global events that we believe are shaping a new political, economic and social paradigm. We are fully self-funded and are not backed by any third-party corporation, organization, or individual. The site is run by ‘London Paul’ and his partner Lisa, who is the site administrator. ‘London Paul’ is a pseudonym that was first coined by long-time friend and fellow commentator Jim Willie. For privacy reasons, Paul prefers not to be known by his real name. He also feels that the primary focus should be on his work rather than on his identity. Paul has a long track record of accurate predictions and analyses on geopolitical and economic affairs. Originally a physicist, he was awarded a Ph.D. in biomolecular physics, after which he spent some time working in academia. He then went on to work in the financial services sector and worked in some major banks until the financial crisis of 2008, when he left the banking sector to work in the precious metals sector. In addition to his vast understanding of economics and precious metals (a friend of his once jokingly said that ‘Paul is the only person I know who really understands derivatives’), he has also always had a keen interest in geopolitics. Through years of diligent research and conversations with certain key insiders, he has been able to gain a unique understanding of a geopolitical shift towards a multipolar paradigm that is now shaping the world in the 21st century. Paul is not motivated by party politics and does not adhere to any particular political, religious or other movement. He likes a common-sense approach to everything and sees it as his responsibility to deliver completely objective, unbiased, and no-nonsense analysis, even if that means going against popular opinion.

    1hr 16min

  9. 9 APR

    Simon Hunt: This Peace Plan isn’t Acceptable to Trump and isn’t Durable

    Tom welcomes back Simon Hunt to the the show. Simon is a consultant on the global economy, China, and the copper industry. He discusses the geopolitical implications of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, and its potential impact on the global economy. The ceasefire, Hunt argues, is unlikely to be durable due to the unacceptable terms proposed by Iran, which include control over the Strait of Hormuz and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region. Hunt suggests that the U.S.’s motivation for the conflict is to support its donors and to control energy prices, thereby controlling the world.   However, Iran’s resilience and backing from China and Russia make it a formidable opponent. The potential economic consequences of a durable ceasefire include rising inflation, increased ten-year yields, and market volatility. Hunt predicts that Europe is poised to enter a recession, while China and Russia may emerge stronger due to their strategic planning and resource reserves. The conflict also highlights the intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China, with copper being a key battleground. Hunt suggests that the global economy is entering a period of uncertainty, with resource nationalism and geopolitical tensions likely to intensify. Hunt also discusses the potential for an inflation-led recovery or recession, the role of gold as a secure asset, and the importance of monitoring capital flows and political changes in the Gulf region. He notes that the conflict has exposed the U.S.’s lack of diplomatic skills and reliance on threats of brute force. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:01:21 – Assessing Ceasefire Durability00:03:13 – Iran’s Ceasefire Demands00:07:23 – Trump’s Attack Motivations00:11:49 – Global Recession Prospects00:15:14 – BRICS Alliance Support00:17:17 – Rising Resource Nationalism00:22:30 – Multipolar World Conflicts00:26:00 – US Diplomacy Failures00:32:34 – Copper Market Forecast00:34:25 – Supply Demand Dynamics00:40:20 – Gold Safe Haven Role00:43:00 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:E-Mail: mailto:simon@shss.comWebsite: https://simon-hunt.com/Report: https://www.theinstitutionalstrategist.com/products-and-services/frontline-china/ Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia. In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe. He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company’s cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level. He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia. The focus of the company’s services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China’s economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected. Simon is the author of the “Frontline China Report Service,” which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China’s economy, politics, and financial outlook. Simon established this company in January 1996.

    44 min

  10. 8 APR

    Jaime Carrasco: Gold Wins No Matter What in the Coming Monetary Reset

    Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Jaime Carrasco, Senior Portfolio Manager and Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management, to discuss the geopolitical and economic landscape in light of the escalating tensions with Iran. Carrasco emphasizes the importance of being defensively positioned in the markets amidst such uncertainty. He highlights the long-term shift away from the US dollar as the global reserve currency, drawing parallels to historical events like the Russian Revolution. Carrasco argues that regardless of the outcome of the conflict, gold will be a winner due to the need for infrastructure rebuilding and the potential for inflationary pressures. Jaime stresses the significance of holding physical gold and investing in gold producers as a hedge against economic instability. He notes that the current geopolitical situation is redrawing the monetary map and signals a loss of trust in the US dollar. He advises clients to have a significant portion (up to 30%) of their net worth in physical gold and gold producers, citing the potential for a monetary reset and the destruction of fiat currencies. He also discusses the impact of rising interest rates and the potential for a credit derivative swap crisis, drawing parallels to the 2008 financial crisis. Carrasco expresses concern about the economic and human costs of the conflict but sees opportunities in sectors like energy, pipelines, and utilities. He believes that the current situation is accelerating a transition to a sound money system and that gold will be a key component of any future monetary reset. Carrasco also touches on the social and political implications of the conflict, emphasizing the importance of empathy and understanding in rebuilding societies. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:01:04 – Geopolitical Market Impact00:03:26 – Monetary System Acceleration00:07:47 – Producer Earnings Opportunities00:08:49 – 30% Producers Allocation00:10:28 – Gold Repatriation Trends00:15:13 – Energy Geopolitics Shifts00:18:31 – Gold as Debt Hedge00:26:09 – Private Credit Bubble00:29:20 – Fed Paths Forward?00:31:42 – Debt Reset Timeline?00:34:40 – Canada & Gold Holdings00:38:43 – Gold Price Volatility00:41:56 – Geopolitical Iran Outcomes00:49:20 – Optimism & Path Forward Guest Links:X: https://x.com/ijcarrascoLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carrasco1/Website: https://www.harbourfrontwealth.comE-Mail: mailto:jaime@jcwealth.ca Jaime Carrasco is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch. Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies. Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment strategies. “Like one’s financial wealth, sailing is not about controlling the wind, but rather about adjusting the sails.”

    56 min
  • 10 Episodes

About

This isn’t just another podcast—it’s a movement for thinkers, doers, and anyone ready to step up and become the best version of themselves, one skill at a time. Bringing you a wide range of content so come with an open mind and a sense of adventure!

Information

  • Creator
    Tom Bodrovics
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    10
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © All content is owned and copyright by Tom Bodrovics, All Rights Reserved.
  • Show Website
    Competent Man Podcast

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