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Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

4 hr ago

Is Trump right to suggest polling errors in the US midterm elections are suspicious?

On 3 November, millions of people from across the United States turned out to have their say in the midterm elections - a vote which saw many seats flip from red to blue and the Democrats take control of both the Senate and the House for the rest of Donald Trump's presidency. The extent of the political change came as a surprise to many. While a Democrat victory had been suggested, the number of votes for the party in some key states was much higher than pollsters had predicted. Trump initially seemed to accept the result. But a week later, he took to social media to question the results, writing: “Does anybody really believe that this ‘election’ was honest. How could the polls be so wrong???” Did the polls really call the election “wrong”? And how much faith should we be putting in polling anyway these days? We speak to Lenny Bronner, founder of political data company Broome Street Labs, and Elaine Kamarck, from the Brookings Institution, to find out more. If you spot a story you'd like us to dig into contact us at moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Sarah Turnnidge Series Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Dave O’Neill Editor: Richard Vadon
7 Nov

Are French school protesters right to say education is underfunded?

French high school students have been on the streets for weeks, blockading schools to demand the government spends more money on education. Their protests have proven the catalyst for a wider movement across Europe, with thousands taking to the streets to protest about issues like the cost of living. Some of the protests have turned violent. But what about the claims about the state of the French education system that started the protests in the first place? We speak to Eric Charbonnier - an expert in the French education system from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) - to find out more. If you spot a story you'd like us to dig into contact us at moreorless@bbc.co.uk. Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Sarah Turnnidge Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Keith Graham Editor: Richard Vadon
31 Oct

Europe's witch trials: The numbers behind the myth

Witches and witchcraft have captivated people for centuries. From the curse tablets of Ancient Greece to the witch of Wookey Hole, belief in magic has long been woven into human culture. But accusations of witchcraft have also had deadly consequences. Across Europe, tens of thousands of people were investigated, prosecuted and executed during the witch trials that swept the continent peaking during the late 16th and early 17th centuries. One statistic is repeated again and again: that nine million people were killed during the witch trials. But where does that figure come from, and does the historical evidence support it? In this episode, we speak to historian Dr Jan Machielsen about the reality behind this claim, exploring what the numbers can tell us about this dark chapter in European history. If you have a story you'd like us to investigate, please contact moreorless@bbc.co.uk. Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: James Beard
24 Oct

Terence Tao: Maths ‘the canary in the coal mine’ on AI

Terence Tao is widely celebrated as the world’s greatest living mathematician. He was doing university-level maths at the age of 9, won Gold at the International Mathematical Olympiad at 13 - still the youngest person to have done that - and got his PHD at age 20. At 31 he won the Fields Medal - somewhat equivalent to a Nobel Prize for pure mathematics. He has now embarked on what some might consider the greatest challenge of his life - he’s written a book for a general audience, called Six Maths Essentials. This provided the opportunity for Tim to interview Professor Tao. They talked about maths, and the relevance of his kind of abstract maths on everyday life. And they also talked about AI. OpenAI recently released full or partial solutions to 372 unsolved mathematical problems, which has raised existential questions about Tao’s profession. Professor Tao says the disruption in his field might make it “the canary in the coal mine” for the disruption AI is going to create across our way of life. Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
17 Oct

Did Ukrainian strikes on Russian data centres stop disinformation bots?

Last week, Ukraine launched drone attacks against three data centres owned by Russian tech giant Yandex. After these attacks Yandex announced that they were struggling to maintain their services. This led to widespread claims that Russian disinformation campaign on social media had been affected, as users produced graphs that they argued showed a dramatic decline in suspicious online activity by bots. The claim was even made by the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenksy, saying there was “less hate” online as a result of the strikes. But as the dust settled, it became clear that this wasn’t the simple success story many people hoped it would be. We speak to Shayan Sardarizadeh from BBC Verify and Amil Khan, the co-founder and CEO of Valent. If you’ve seen a number, or a graph, that you think we should look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Credits: Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
14 Oct

Fact-check: Will Scottish pensioners really be funding English social care?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:40) First Minister John Swinney has claimed that Scottish pensioners are set to lose £2000, with the money going to fund English social care. We gently suggest he might like to consider the existence of the Barnett formula, and explain that, when you do, the picture looks very different. (06:08 ) The Liberal Democrats have dug out data on maternity injuries that they claim is ‘a shocking indictment of our NHS maternity services’. We explore flaws in their analysis and ask an expert what a better source of data tells us about maternal healthcare. (13:20) Professor Terence Tao is good at maths. Extremely good at maths. We ask him how he feels about AI being better at maths than him. (15:49) Great news! The UK is reducing its deficit at the fastest rate of any G7 nation. Except we’re not. Ah, shame. But we are planning to! Fantastic! But we’ve got reason to be sceptical of these plans. That’s a pity. Join the FT’s Chris Giles on the economic and emotional rollercoaster that is the UK’s fiscal trajectory. (21:14) The series reaches its intellectual zenith as we ask what would happen if you ‘put the whole of the country into baked beans’. Expect back of the tin workings, cutting edge agri-science research and true public service journalism. Just don’t ask what the nadir was. Guests: Dr Spencer Thompson - Senior Knowledge Exchange Fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute Professor Marian Knight - Director of the National Perinatal Epidemiology Unit at the University of Oxford Chris Giles - Economics Commentator at the Financial Times Professor Terence Tao - Professor of Mathematics at UCLA Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporters: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: James Beard
10 Oct

Fact-check: Is China missing a billion people?

A viral video circulating online claims the population of China is actually a billion people lower than the UN and China say. A billion is big number, you'd think the Chinese would notice if that many were missing - and the claim is certainly false. However, as the team dug into the stats, a strange story emerged - which suggests the official data on births and fertility may not be quite as reliable as you might think. We spoke to demographer Professor Sabu Padmadas from the University of Southampton to find out more. If you spot a story you'd like us to dig into contact us at moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Mix: James Beard
7 Oct

Is the UK state pension really the lowest in Europe?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:42) Is the UK uniquely miserly when it comes to the state pension? That’s the story a viral social media post is telling - but have they adjusted to account for complicated structural differences between national systems? Reader, they have not. (07:23) In a podcast feud nobody saw coming, Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg and Tucker Carlson recently locked horns over whether Russia or UK has a larger economy. Who's right? Only one person can possibly adjudicate this one: Duncan Weldon. (15:06) What effect did this year’s heatwaves have on excess deaths? We analyse the mortality data and explore how, despite thousands of deaths associated with the heat, 2026 is so far setting a record low mortality rate. (22:35) And finally, in an ‘and finally’ story to end all ‘and finally’ stories, we finally ask how many times the world population can fit into Loch Ness. And Lake Baikal. And, finally, the Caspian Sea. Guests: Heidi Karjalainen – Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies Stuart McDonald – Partner and Head of Longevity and Demographic Insights at consultancy firm Lane Clark & Peacock Duncan Weldon – Economist and author of ‘Blood and Treasure: The Economics of Conflict from the Vikings to Ukraine’ Dr Keith Still – Director of Crowd Risk Analysis Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Producers: Nathan Gower, Lizzy McNeill, Kateryna Pavlyuk Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: James Beard ARCHIVE: The Tucker Carlson Show, YouTube

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