Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
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Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade. Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success. No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance. If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge. Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience. 🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com

  1. SI386: When Position Sizing Saves You ft. Rob Carver

    2 HR AGO

    SI386: When Position Sizing Saves You ft. Rob Carver

    Today, we are joined by Rob Carver to unpack one of the most volatile weeks seen in commodity markets in years. The conversation centers on silver’s sharp rise and sudden collapse, using it as a case study in volatility targeting, liquidity risk, and disciplined position sizing. From Freaky Friday to broader dislocations across assets, they examine why systematic risk management matters when markets move faster than narratives. The discussion expands into diversification, correlation assumptions, alternative markets, and new research on trend portfolio construction, offering a grounded reminder that survival often matters more than precision. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series 03:56 - Freaky Friday in precious metals 04:29 - How Rob trades silver in a volatility adjusted framework 10:25 - When volatility forces position reduction 12:38 - Liquidity myths in hot commodity markets 16:25 - Risk management lessons from silver’s collapse 22:28 - Dislocations across assets beyond metals 24:54 - Fed chair speculation and muted market reactions 31:33 - Discretionary versus systematic decision making 34:03 - Trend barometer and market breadth update 37:34 - Estimating portfolio correlation from PnL 41:18 - Correlation versus volatility predictability 45:13 - MAN Group paper...

    1h 9m
  2. UGO09: Playing the Players in a Narrative Market ft. Ben Hunt

    3 DAYS AGO

    UGO09: Playing the Players in a Narrative Market ft. Ben Hunt

    Cem Karsan sits down with Ben Hunt, founder of Epsilon Theory, to explore how narratives shape markets, politics, and decision making itself. Drawing on decades of experience across academia, hedge funds, and applied AI, Ben explains why stories, not data, increasingly drive outcomes in modern markets. The conversation spans unstructured data, inference, common knowledge, and the mechanics of narrative momentum. Together, they examine consumer expectations, inflation silence, geopolitical signaling, and the slow shift away from US dominance. What emerges is a framework for understanding markets as reflexive systems, where perception often matters more than reality. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to U Got Options and the trading floor setting 02:18 - Ben Hunt’s background and Epsilon Theory origins 04:11 - Markets as the ultimate multiplayer game 06:15 - Inference, unstructured data, and narrative analysis 08:18 - Why sentiment and word counts miss the real signal 11:16 - Mapping meaning and truthy stories 15:00 - LLMs as operating systems, not oracles 18:01 - Giving money back and when models stop working 21:16 - Applying narrative tools beyond markets 24:10 - Consumer weakness versus bullish expectations 30:43 - Inflation, recession, and why markets do not care 33:29 - Dormant stories and volatility discovery 34:26 -

    1h 1m
  3. SI385: When Volatility Becomes the Signal ft. Katy Kaminski

    31 JAN

    SI385: When Volatility Becomes the Signal ft. Katy Kaminski

    Katy Kaminski joins us to assess the early signals shaping markets in 2026. The conversation explores the resurgence of commodity trends, the role of volatility estimation, and why diversification across markets and speeds matters more than ever. Drawing on new research, they examine dispersion within the CTA universe, the limits of replication, and how volatility targeting quietly determines outcomes. From precious metals to currencies, from crisis alpha to geopolitical risk, this episode offers a grounded look at why trend following thrives during disruption and why regime change remains its natural habitat. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series 00:39 - Weather disruptions and market perspective 02:31 - Precious metals and extreme commodity moves 04:28 - Gold, central banks, and monetary regime shifts 07:43 - Replication versus full CTA diversification 09:47 - Liquidity differences across metals 12:03 - Metals leading trend performance in 2026 15:01 - Multi-sector trends and diversification benefits 20:13 - Media attention and the return of trend following 23:29 - Research insights on speed and dispersion 31:44 - Trend speed and timing tradeoffs 40:59 - Market concentration and narrow universes 43:19 - Volatility estimation as a hidden...

    1h 5m
  4. GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins

    28 JAN

    GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins

    In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve credibility to the limits of the K-shaped economy narrative. Perkins challenges prevailing assumptions around AI-driven productivity, labor market weakness, and falling inflation, arguing that policy choices are pushing economies toward overheating rather than stagnation. The discussion extends to bond markets, term premia, Japan’s normalization, Europe’s fiscal pivot, and China’s rebalancing dilemma. What emerges is a picture of renewed growth, rising risks, and a cycle whose ending is now becoming visible. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Dario on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks and context 02:25 - Global uncertainty and growth expectations 05:00 - The K-shaped economy under scrutiny 08:12 - Fiscal stimulus, tariffs, and timing effects 11:07 - Fed independence and political pressure 17:06 - The race to appoint the next Fed chair 26:35 - Productivity data and the AI narrative 35:51 - Labor market stall speed debate 39:56 - Bond markets, term premia, and inflation risk 46:03 - Japan’s normalization and demographic...

    1h 4m
  5. SI384: Building an Inflation-Proof Portfolio ft. Yoav Git

    24 JAN

    SI384: Building an Inflation-Proof Portfolio ft. Yoav Git

    In this episode, Niels hosts Yoav Git to explore inflation risk, bond fragility, and the changing role of trend following in a world defined by supply shocks and declining trust. Drawing on recent research and market behavior, the conversation examines why traditional bond allocations struggle during inflationary regimes and how commodity trend strategies may offer structural resilience. The discussion spans geopolitics, deglobalization, energy markets, fixed income autocorrelation, and the limits of forecasting macro outcomes. Rather than predicting inflation’s path, the episode focuses on portfolio construction that can endure multiple regimes. What emerges is a disciplined argument for robustness over precision in an increasingly unstable global system. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Yoav on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and series context 01:08 - Inflation back on the radar 02:38 - Recent podcast influences and inflation narratives 06:56 - Geopolitics, trust, and market fragmentation 08:52 - Commodities, volatility, and supply driven moves 10:48 - Trend performance and early 2026 conditions 11:30 - Fixed income, FX, and emerging market trends 17:26 - The all weather portfolio problem 18:18 - Bonds, inflation regimes, and correlation breakdowns 22:39 - Commodity trend as a defensive building block 27:01 - Are markets signaling higher inflation ahead 30:04 - What...

    1h 1m
  6. IL45: Where Markets Reveal Human Error ft. Alex Imas

    21 JAN

    IL45: Where Markets Reveal Human Error ft. Alex Imas

    Today we discuss one of the most popular and influential economic books of the last few decades - The Winner’s Curse. Originally published in 1994, a new version has just been released and we are joined by co-author Alex Imas who wrote the new edition alongside Nobel Prize winner Richard Thaler. When are we likely to spend a windfall and when are we likely to save it? When is it most dangerous to bid for business against competitors? And are ‘arbitrage’ opportunities in markets really a free lunch? ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Alex on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks and framing the law of one price 01:42 - Introducing the Ideas Lab series and Alex Imas 03:44 - From pre med to behavioral economics 08:15 - Mental accounting and how people really treat money 10:45 - Housing wealth, illiquidity, and self control 15:39 - Savings behavior, capital gains, and inequality 17:11 - Attention, salience, and why nudges work or fail 22:07 - Nudges versus incentives and policy confusion 25:18 - The winner’s curse and common value auctions 30:01 - Auctions, IPOs, and competitive overbidding 33:44 - The law of one price and market mispricing 36:50...

    54 min
  7. SI383: When Signals Matter More Than Stories ft. Nick Baltas

    17 JAN

    SI383: When Signals Matter More Than Stories ft. Nick Baltas

    Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas to examine how narratives, signals, and structural design are reshaping trend following at the start of 2026. The conversation moves from investor storytelling and information digestion to a sober review of what truly drove dispersion in 2025. We explore why speed and universe choice mattered more than expected, why recent outcomes may be misleading, and why reacting to performance is often a mistake. The discussion then turns technical, unpacking new academic research on nonlinear momentum, signal construction, and the deeper mechanics behind trend following’s defensive behavior during stress. The episode closes with a reminder that discipline, not prediction, remains the strategy’s core advantage. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and welcome 01:05 - A disrupted start to 2026 03:10 - Narratives, information, and price formation 07:06 - Why stories often fail to move markets 09:31 - Recurring themes and market attention 10:59 - Strong early conditions for trend following 12:01 - Dispersion across strategies in 2025 15:06 - Familiar patterns in an unfamiliar year 18:42 - Speed versus universe in trend design 23:17 - Why recent outperformance can mislead 31:08 - Institutional views on trend following 40:21 - Nonlinear time series momentum research 50:30 - Autonomy of trend and crisis...

    1 hr
  8. GM94: When Capitalism Reboots and Crashes Again ft. Mark Blyth

    14 JAN

    GM94: When Capitalism Reboots and Crashes Again ft. Mark Blyth

    As the long era of neoliberal certainty frays, Mark Blyth argues that we are drifting back toward a 19th century world of rival blocs, imperial habits and dangerous illusions. In this conversation, he traces how repeated “software crashes” of capitalism produced inflation, austerity, populism and now a return to industrial policy and great power confrontation. He connects deficits, demographics, migration, and housing with the lived reality of stagnant wages and rising prices. Along the way, he questions central bank mythology, challenges deficit obsession, and asks whether politics can adapt before events force a far harsher reset. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Cold open and warning on a return to 19th century style imperialism 00:23 - Niels and Alan introduce Mark Blyth and set the macro context 02:24 - From Scottish childhood to monetarism and the politics of macro ideas 08:33 - Capitalism as hardware and software and the recurring crashes of each regime 15:32 - The slow death of neoliberalism and the rise of populist reactions 18:57 - Deficits, austerity, bond vigilantes and why the house is on fire anyway 23:49 - Affordability, grocery prices, housing and the disconnect in elite dashboards 29:02 - Generational conflict, asset concentration and the missing left...

    1h 8m
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Hosts & Guests

About

Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade. Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success. No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance. If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge. Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience. 🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com

Information

  • Creator
    Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
  • Years Active
    2014 - 2026
  • Episodes
    902
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Copyright 2026 CMC AG - This content does not constitute financial advice and is for educational purposes only. The content can not be used for commercial use without written permission from CMC AG.
  • Show Website
    Top Traders Unplugged

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