Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Jack Farley
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Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.

  1. 12 hr ago

    Turbo Charged Trend Following: Why Capturing the Market’s Biggest Trends Means Embracing High Volatility | Moritz Seibert & Moritz Heiden | Takahe Capital

    Moritz Seibert and Moritz Heiden of Takahe Capital dive deep into the mechanics of high-octane trend-following strategies and unpack why they target 25-30% annualized volatility, bucking the institutional trend of lower volatility to capture massive outlier trades like the recent cocoa and gold runs. They explore the heated debate between dynamic position sizing and classic approaches, revealing why letting winners run is crucial for massive returns. The conversation also touches on the emerging world of perpetual futures on decentralized platforms and why keeping trading models simple often beats complex fundamental analysis. Follow Moritz Seibert on X: https://x.com/moritzseibert Follow Moritz Heiden on X: https://x.com/moritzheiden Follow Takahe Capital on X: https://x.com/TakaheCapital Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:14 Do You Need Big Trends 03:21 Smooth vs Choppy Trends 05:00 Oil Curve Positioning 07:43 Model Design Not Discretion 09:24 Why Trend Funds Differ 16:02 Classic Trend Playbooks 19:04 Sizing Beats Entry 25:01 Perpetual Futures Reality 32:41 High Octane Philosophy 35:22 Letting Winners Get Huge 39:04 Why Trends End Late 41:55 Price Only vs Fundamentals 46:28 What’s Trending Now 49:57 Spreads Underperforming 52:37 When Signals Die 57:49 Simple Robust Parameters 01:00:59 Design Without Optimization 01:05:43 Diversification and Investors 01:09:32 Uniqueness and Market Mix 01:14:21 Who Buys High Vol 01:15:54 Conclusion

    Turbo Charged Trend Following: Why Capturing the Market’s Biggest Trends Means Embracing High Volatility | Moritz Seibert & Moritz Heiden | Takahe Capital

  2. 2 days ago

    The Semiconductor Earnings Boom Is Just Getting Started | Ben Pouladian on why AI is Real, Nvidia is Mispriced, and Capacitors Are Overrated

    In this episode of Monetary Matters, Jack Farley sits down with semiconductor analyst Ben Pouladian of BEP Research to unpack the complex hardware supply chain powering the AI revolution. Pouladian pushes back against the bear argument that the current boom is merely a dot-com bubble repeat, explaining why Nvidia's ability to generate "intelligence" differs vastly from Cisco's networking commodities. He reveals that the true bottleneck in AI deployment is no longer a GPU shortage, but rather a severe lack of energized land and the tradesmen needed to build physical data centers. The conversation also dives into Pouladian's "token dollar" thesis, exploring how the global race for maximum compute-per-watt has become a modern geopolitical space race between the U.S. and China. For investors, Pouladian breaks down his top stock picks, including his unwavering bullishness on Nvidia, Apple's vital role in consumer AI privacy, and Bloom Energy's unique solution to the data center power crunch. Whether you are an institutional investor or just curious about the future of tech, this deep dive offers a clear roadmap for navigating the massive capital expenditures driving the semiconductor super-cycle. Recorded July 8, 2026. Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Ben Pouladian on X https://x.com/benitoz Ben’s Pieces on BEP Research we discussed: “The Token Dollar”: https://bepresearch.substack.com/p/the-token-dollar “Bloom Energy Is Actually Getting Deployed”: https://bepresearch.substack.com/p/bloom-energy-is-actually-getting Most recent piece, which addresses recent short reports on Bloom: https://substack.com/home/post/p-206941568 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    The Semiconductor Earnings Boom Is Just Getting Started | Ben Pouladian on why AI is Real, Nvidia is Mispriced, and Capacitors Are Overrated

  3. 7 Jul

    Breaking Down the Multi-Manager Playbook: How This $19B CIO Thinks About Alpha | Sean McGould | The Lighthouse Group

    Sean McGould, CEO and CIO of $19 billion hedge fund manager The Lighthouse Group, joins OPM to discuss navigating today's bull market by targeting diverse sources of global alpha. The conversation focuses on Japan as a new source of alpha, spurred by the country's historic corporate governance reforms, the unwinding of cross-shareholdings, and the new NISA guidelines driving unprecedented retail investment. Additionally, McGould breaks down how the AI capital expenditure arms race is shaping global equity issuance and explains why the multi-manager "pod shop" model is the true modern successor to Wall Street's legacy proprietary trading desks. Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Japan Market Shift 01:29 Lighthouse Group 04:53 Why Hedge in Bull Runs? 10:43 Equity Issuance Signals 13:33 Capex Versus Meme Raises 16:27 AI Inside Lighthouse 18:20 Specialists vs. Generalists 19:42 AI Fuels Asia Outperformance 21:18 Japan Reforms and Nikkei 24:43 Korea Value Up Program 27:44 Fixing Incentive Imbalances 32:34 Sector Pair Trades Explained 33:56 Factor Neutrality Pitfalls 34:44 AI and Narrative Factors 41:54 Why Liquidity Means Capacity 44:34 Hidden Alpha in Regulation 50:30 Hedging Regulatory Unknowns 53:50 Peak Pod Shop Debate 57:40 Diversification and Market Liquidity

    Breaking Down the Multi-Manager Playbook: How This $19B CIO Thinks About Alpha | Sean McGould | The Lighthouse Group

  4. 5 Jul

    The Ultimate Playbook for Reducing The Fed’s Balance Sheet | Professor Darrell Duffie on 4 Tools For Federal Reserve To Shrink Reserve Demand In Banking System

    Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://Fundrise.com/mm It's no secret that the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, prefers the Federal Reserve to have a smaller balance sheet, perhaps a much, much smaller balance sheet. The consequences of this range from the mundane to the profound, but what is without question is that in order to reduce the Fed's balance sheet, there need to be additional tools to reduce reserve demand from the banking system.  Stanford Professor Darrell Duffie returns to Monetary Matters to explain that to safely reduce Fed assets, policymakers must first address the liability side of the ledger by drastically lowering commercial banks' high demand for reserve balances. If the Fed simply sells off assets without adjusting this structural demand, it risks losing control of interest rates and sparking extreme volatility in repo funding markets, similar to the disruptions witnessed in September 2019. To prevent such a liquidity crisis, Duffie outlines four crucial policy tools from his latest research: utilizing temporary open market operations, easing stringent liquidity regulations, implementing software-driven liquidity savings mechanisms, and tiering the interest rates paid on excess reserves. While some of these proposed banking plumbing changes are already successfully utilized by other global central banks, their adoption remains highly debated within the Federal Reserve. Ultimately, integrating these innovative monetary tools could provide the necessary framework for the Fed to achieve a vastly smaller footprint in the financial markets over the coming decade. Recorded June 30, 2026.  Darrell Duffie website: https://www.darrellduffie.com/ Pieces discussed:  “The Payment System Puts a Floor on the Fed’s Balance Sheet,” Spring 2026: https://www.darrellduffie.com/uploads/1/4/8/0/148007615/duffie_bpea_payments.pdf “An Efficient Liquidity Savings Mechanism,” June 3, 2026: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6869662&__cf_chl_f_tk=0_Jrq4.M1jw0cY9jkTQugQHw531LRaR5X__LMj_0U.Q-1783272074-1.0.1.1-6nR7OVxYRqdVjoMHJTtUJ6A5vRg.ls3f_TfIWkVJqoo Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Fundrise on X https://x.com/fundrise?lang=en Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    The Ultimate Playbook for Reducing The Fed’s Balance Sheet | Professor Darrell Duffie on 4 Tools For Federal Reserve To Shrink Reserve Demand In Banking System

  5. 4 Jul

    The Real Estate Cycle Is Turning | Josh Pristaw on The New Cycle in Real Estate, Opportunity in Senior Living, Why AI Data Centers Are Too Big For Most Investors

    Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://Fundrise.com/mm In this episode of Monetary Matters, host Jack sits down with Josh Pristaw, President of the $73 Billion real estate firm Clarion Partners, to decode the smartest institutional property plays for the new 2026 market cycle. Pristau incisively breaks down why Clarion avoids the massive concentration risks of direct data center development, opting instead to capitalize on the AI and e-commerce boom through their $42 billion industrial and logistics portfolio. He reveals senior housing as the firm's highest conviction asset class, driven by an undeniable demographic tsunami where 10,000 Americans turn 80 daily, demanding a quintupling of current supply pipelines. Listeners will also gain deep insights into the multifamily rental market's recovery, which is currently being fueled by peak household formation demographics and stabilizing lease trade-outs. Conversely, Pristau outlines a starkly bearish case for non-trophy office spaces, citing massive tenant replacement costs and functionally obsolete designs. Whether you are navigating commercial real estate investing, private credit ripples, or core-plus fund strategies, this interview delivers a masterclass on finding high-yield stability in a shifting macroeconomic landscape. Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Fundrise on X https://x.com/fundrise?lang=en Pieces discussed: “A Golden Opportunity for Senior Housing”: https://www.clarionpartners.com/insights/senior-housing-opportunity “U.S. Core Real Estate: A New Cycle is Emerging”: https://www.clarionpartners.com/insights/us-core-real-estate-a-new-cycle “Building into the Future: The Case for U.S. Industrial Development”: https://www.clarionpartners.com/insights/us-industrial-development Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    The Real Estate Cycle Is Turning | Josh Pristaw on The New Cycle in Real Estate, Opportunity in Senior Living, Why AI Data Centers Are Too Big For Most Investors

  6. 2 Jul

    What If It’s Still Early? | Erik YWR on $10,000 S&P 500 by 2027 Case, Hyperscaler ROIC, AI CapEx, Semis, Exchanges, and Reverse Crash Risk In “Project Zimbabwe”

    In this episode, veteran investor and macro strategist Erik from the Erik YWR Substack breaks down his bold bull thesis projecting the S&P 500 to hit 10,000 by the end of 2027. Drawing on his past investing experience in Africa, Erik introduces "Project Zimbabwe," explaining why higher inflationary eras trigger an "upward crash" where nominal assets like stocks and real estate surge even when the broader economy feels sluggish. He challenges today’s market bears by comparing the current AI and semiconductor boom to the 1999 dot-com era, arguing that accelerating earnings growth and revolutionary technology could justify significantly higher market multiples.  Beyond the tech trade, Erik highlights massive opportunities in European and Japanese banks transitioning back to a "risk-on" posture, alongside financial exchanges like CME and ICE that stand to thrive on rising market speculation. He also candidly addresses his toughest underperforming trades in Hong Kong and Chinese tech, differentiating between mainland China's robust hardware plays and Hong Kong's heavily disrupted e-commerce software sector. Ultimately, Erik warns that the greatest long-term risk for investors isn't a temporary 20% market correction, but the wealth erosion of sitting on the sidelines while the cost of living skyrockets around them. Recorded June 29, 2026. Follow Erik YWR on X https://x.com/erik_ywr?lang=en Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/jackfarley96 Erik YWR’s Substack https://www.ywr.world/ Pieces Discussed In Interview: “YWR: S&P $10,000 Update,” June 16, 2026:https://www.ywr.world/p/ywr-s-and-p-10000-update “YWR: Global Factor Model,” June 27, 2026: https://www.ywr.world/p/ywr-global-factor-model-9b9 “YWR: Friday Money Maker(s),” June 19, 2026 (on ICE CME and Exchanges):  https://www.ywr.world/p/ywr-friday-money-makers  Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    What If It’s Still Early? | Erik YWR on $10,000 S&P 500 by 2027 Case, Hyperscaler ROIC, AI CapEx, Semis, Exchanges, and Reverse Crash Risk In “Project Zimbabwe”

  7. 30 Jun

    Top IPO Scholar on Unprecedented IPO Wave & Why IPOs Underperform the Market | Jay Ritter

    Leading IPO researcher Jay Ritter, widely known as "Mr. IPO" and the director of the IPO Initiative at the University of Florida's Warrington College of Business breaks down the historic 2026 public market landscape. Ritter analyzes the unprecedented potential for a wave of mega-IPOs from tech giants like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. He dives into the realities of staggering price-to-sales ratios, warning that while AI offers immense technological promise, eye-watering trillion-dollar valuations leave very little room for error. Ritter also cuts through the hype surrounding retail access to venture capital and private equity, explaining why extra layers of middlemen, "volatility washing," and an evaporating illiquidity premium mean average investors aren't actually missing out on a free lunch. Professor Ritter’s IPO Data: https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/ipo-data/ Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:58 Meet Mr IPO 01:40 2026 is Unprecedented 02:52 Do IPOs Signal Tops 04:27 How IPO Pricing Works 05:57 SpaceX Valuation Risks 09:26 TAM Hype and Cursor 13:27 2026 Versus Past Waves 16:17 Must Own AI Exposure 19:46 Regulation and Unintended Effects 27:29 Geopolitics and Dual Use 29:10 Will IPO Volume Boom? 32:40 VC/PE = No Free Lunch 35:36 Retail Access Fee Stacking 39:14 Volatility Washing and Perps 49:09 Sentiment and Final Takeaways

    Top IPO Scholar on Unprecedented IPO Wave & Why IPOs Underperform the Market | Jay Ritter

  8. 29 Jun

    Rothschilds, Railroads, & Ruin | Liaquat Ahamed on “1873” (New Book!)

    Liaquat Ahamed, legendary financial historian and author, joins Jack to discuss his latest book, "1873: The Rothschilds, the First Great Depression, and the Making of the Modern World.” Ahamed unpacks the 1873 financial crisis, explaining how Germany's abrupt move from silver to gold during a market panic triggered a massive global scramble for precious metals and severe deflation. He details the preceding infrastructure boom driven by the Rothschilds' bond market expansion, which eventually collapsed due to excessive railroad construction and the infamous Credit Mobilier corruption scandal. Transitioning to modern markets, Ahamed compares the 19th-century railway mania to today's trillion-dollar global AI and data center investment boom. He warns that fierce competition in the AI sector could lead to poor returns and a series of mini boom-bust cycles. While expressing concern over modern speculative bubbles in crypto and loose central bank policies, Ahamed remains hopeful that these technological innovations will spark a significant productivity jump. Recorded June 9, 2026. “1873”: on Publish Penguin Random House: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/306461/1873-by-liaquat-ahamed/ “1873”: on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/1873-Rothschilds-Depression-Making-Modern/dp/1594204179 Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/jackfarley96  Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    Rothschilds, Railroads, & Ruin | Liaquat Ahamed on “1873” (New Book!)
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About

Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.

Information

  • Creator
    Jack Farley
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    281
  • Rating
    Explicit

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