The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche
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Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

  1. 11 HR AGO

    #348 Chris Whalen: This Could Be One of the Biggest Busts in U.S. Financial History

    In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen warns that private credit could become one of the biggest busts in U.S. financial history — not a systemic crisis, but a slow, painful unwind that will take years and leave many investors with no legal rights. He alleges that BDC accounting fraud is already systemic and the SEC isn't paying attention. On the macro, he says the Fed should still cut rates one to two times this year despite oil near $100 because war is not a monetary event — and that raising into an oil shock, as some central banks did before 2008, would be a mistake. He predicts a significant housing price correction by 2028, calls Trump's economic agenda incoherent, and warns that $100 oil by election day could cost Republicans the midterms. His highest conviction position right now: preserving capital. Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 - Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen 0:31 JPMorgan pulling back from private credit 4:32 - The $4.2 trillion exposure number most investors don't know about 7:05 - Where Whalen is personally invested right now 8:02 - Is private credit systemic or not? 8:43 - "Risk is never contained" — what to think when you hear that language 11:42 - Will the Trump administration end in a financial crisis? 13:50 - Rate cuts — will the Fed move despite $100 oil? 16:16 - Base case: one to two cuts, oil at $100 most of the year 17:51 - Housing off the radar in Washington? 19:22 - Midterms — is Trump cooked? 20:30 - Trump's economic endgame   23:05 - Gold and silver — breakout or going sideways? 25:57 - Banks 28:12 - Viewer mail 35:43 - What Whalen is watching next week

    37 min

  2. 2 DAYS AGO

    #347 Louis Gave: $120 Oil Breaks Everything — And Nobody Is Ready

    Louis-Vincent Gave, founder and CEO of Gavekal Research, joins Julia to break down the three prices that drive every investment decision — the dollar, the 10-year treasury, and oil — and why right now all three are flashing red. With the Strait of Hormuz under threat, Louis explains why he sees oil heading toward $120 and why that number breaks the global economy. He makes the case that the traditional 60/40 portfolio is dead and should be replaced with 60% equities, 20% precious metals, and 20% energy. He reveals why the Chinese renminbi is the most undervalued asset on the planet, why China already won the trade war, and why the US is in greater danger of crushing its allies than itself. One of the most thought-provoking macro conversations you'll hear this year. Links: https://web.gavekal.com/ https://x.com/gave_vincent Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome 01:22 The 3 prices that drive everything: dollar, 10-year, oil 2:38 Oil went from $65 to $85 — but Louis fears $120-150 4:08 Why the oil futures curve isn't pricing in a prolonged crisis 5:06 Dollar bear market — why the rebound won't last 6:28 "If truth is the first casualty of war, bonds are a close second" 6:53 The binary outcome on Iran — both scenarios are bad for bonds 7:51 Regime change = Berlin Wall moment — but real rates explode 9:44 "Tails I lose, heads I don't win" — the bond market trap 11:33 $100 oil and Trump's political predicament 13:41 Trump wanted lower energy — "the road to hell is paved with good intentions" 14:06 Why $100 oil is "right pocket, left pocket" for the US 15:58 The real victims: Europe, Taiwan, Korea, Japan 17:23 90% of Hormuz oil heads east — not to the US 18:39 Missing 15 million barrels: prices skyrocket or demand collapses 20:28 Why energy is the best hedge for your portfolio right now 21:50 The new portfolio: 60% equities, 20% precious metals, 20% energy 22:07 The four quadrants framework explained 25:40 Why the 60/40 portfolio is officially dead 27:52 Gold is NOT an inflation hedge — what it actually is 28:37 Why central banks started buying gold after Russia asset seizure 30:08 Western retail has completely missed the gold bull market 31:32 The broken equation: US treasuries no longer equal commodities 32:59 The next shift — stockpiling physical commodities 33:15 "I'm bearish on the dollar and treasuries — but the US has pocket aces" 34:38 Four pillars: fundamentals, momentum, positioning, valuation 36:40 Where Louis sees opportunity: Chile, Brazil, China, South Africa 37:21 China for beginners — the biggest misconceptions 39:05 China's growth miracle — it wasn't central planning 42:06 The Hunger Games of capitalism 44:24 How China really views the Iran war — purely economic 46:46 The most underappreciated macro theme right now 48:19 "Stupidly, stupidly undervalued" — the renminbi slam dunk trade 50:41 Why China kept the RMB artificially low for 8 years 51:49 The weaponization of China's own savings52:35 "China went to the gym" — why it could stand up to Trump 54:18 Who won the trade war? 56:12 The one risk keeping Louis up at night 57:08 "$120 oil breaks stuff" — the number to watch

    59 min

  3. 4 DAYS AGO

    #346 David Woo: The Market Is Completely Wrong About Iran, Oil & What Comes Next

    Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound and co-author of the upcoming financial thriller Merry Go Round Broke Down, returns to the show to break down the geopolitical and market implications of the US-Iran conflict. Woo argues that markets are dangerously mispricing the situation, betting either on a quick Trump "TACO" or a rapid US victory — both of which he sees as unlikely. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, oil sitting near $100 a barrel, and Iran executing a measured, strategic response, Woo believes this conflict is far more protracted than Wall Street is pricing. He explains why Trump, now effectively a lame duck after the Supreme Court's tariff ruling, is unlikely to back down given the enormous legacy stakes, and why China's deep investment in Iran makes this the first real US-China proxy war. Woo also breaks down the winners and losers globally, shares his current positioning — short stocks, long oil — and warns that an interaction between rising oil prices, the AI bubble, and private credit stress could be the perfect storm markets aren't prepared for. Links:   Book: https://www.amazon.com/Merry-Go-Round-Broke-Down-Novel-Globalization/dp/B0GCX8Y6KT YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound 00:00 Introduction 00:43 Setting the geopolitical stage 01:16 Why markets are dangerously complacent 03:34 Why Trump won't TACO this time 05:50 Trump's legacy shift — why Iran, why now 07:48 Iran's military capabilities — what the US hasn't destroyed 10:14 Oil at $95 — what's actually priced in 12:47 The Strait of Hormuz and what markets are missing 15:11 Can the Fed cut rates at $100 oil? 16:00 Retail investors driving the market higher 17:56 Global recession risk 19:57 Winners and losers — Canada, Russia, Europe, Japan 20:27 Why the midterms are almost irrelevant now 24:41 Base case — Trump loses the House 26:00 Why Trump is moving on Iran before lame duck sets in 28:09 Regime change and the greatest presidential legacy 29:55 China-Iran railroad and the real proxy war 31:24 Can the US control the Strait of Hormuz? 33:00 The Houthis playbook 35:15 UAE under attack — interceptors running out 37:04 Iran's civilization and strategic depth 39:12 David's positions — short stocks, long oil 40:42 When will markets wake up? 43:21 Most likely outcome — civil war not regime change 45:11 What Xi Jinping is thinking right now 47:03 Is this worth the risk for the US? 49:43 The Pearl Harbor analogy and China's Belt and Road 52:39 Gold, crowded trades getting blown out 55:38 Private credit, the AI bubble and the perfect storm 58:44 What's keeping David up at night — AI 01:03:07 David's book — Merry Go Round Broke Down

    1h 5m

  4. 7 MAR

    #345 Chris Whalen: Private Credit Is Blowing Up, Nobody In Washington Is Paying Attention, and the Trump Administration Is Heading Toward a Financial Crisis

    In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen warns the Trump administration is heading toward a financial crisis, driven by private credit contagion, hidden leverage, and a Washington that isn't paying attention. He breaks down the BlackRock blowup, the PIK loan problem, Iran's market impact, and explains why he's buying gold and staying out of financials. Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome to The Wrap with Chris Whalen 00:36 - Classic risk-off period we'll remember for years 02:42 - Lloyd Blankfein says private credit "smells like 2008" — is he right? 05:00 - BlackRock marks $25M loan from 100 cents to zero in 3 months 06:50 - Apollo CEO calls this a "shake out" 09:08 -Goldco 10:08 - PIK loans & "POOP" structures — is this the beginning of a default wave? 13:26 - Where Whalen is putting his own money right now 16:03 - "Every asset class is short interest rate volatility" — what that means for you 18:05 - Will the Fed cut rates? Whalen says yes — possibly as soon as March 19:46 - Nobody in Washington is talking about financial contagion — who should be? 22:22 - Tariffs: why Whalen calls the $175B refund story a "huge nothing" 23:04 - Gold & silver: why Whalen is more confident than ever on precious metals 26:07 - Iran escalates: what it means for markets & why there's no endgame 27:08 - Teapot Dome, Warren Harding & the Trump parallel 30:37 - Viewer Mail: Is your annuity at risk if private credit blows up? 31:49 - Viewer Mail: Is there an MBS story to the private credit unraveling? 33:00 - Viewer Mail: The Fed's balance sheet surge — should you be worried? 35:00 - Viewer Mail: Are we heading back to a gold-based monetary system? 36:30 - Final thoughts: what Whalen is watching next week

    38 min

  5. 28 FEB

    #344 Chris Whalen: Private Credit Is Unraveling, Consumer Credit Is Cracking, and Silver Surges

    In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down the unraveling of private credit and why retail investors were never suitable for these investments in the first place. He explains how private credit shops have quietly gained access to Federal Home Loan Bank funding through insurance company acquisitions — a taxpayer-subsidized arrangement he finds extraordinary and plans to investigate further. On markets, Chris argues liquidity will be the defining theme of 2026, with money rotating out of speculative and private assets back into public markets. He also flags early warning signs in consumer credit, names the specific companies to watch for deterioration, and explains why the mortgage market needs rates to fall further before any real pickup in activity. On precious metals, Chris details a seismic secular shift underway as India joins China in moving away from COMEX pricing toward Asian markets — and warns that if COMEX cannot deliver physical metal against futures contracts, it could be forced out of the business entirely. Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome to The Wrap with Chris Whalen 0:49 Private credit is unraveling — are retail investors about to run like Silicon Valley Bank 3:51 The insurance company play 5:20 Does the insurance and private credit connection create contagion risk 6:05 Nvidia beats but the market sells it — is the AI trade structurally broken 8:07 Why has the broader market held up despite the tech and SaaS selloff 9:00 Liquidity is the theme of 2026 10:12 Banks discussion 14:49 Mortgage market — 30 year rates dip below 6%, does it last 16:42 Will we see more rate cuts — Chris's expectations for Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair 18:37 What it would take to unlock the housing market 20:34 Tariffs 21:50 The most important things for markets to focus on right now 22:36 Silver — COMEX and London are losing their role as price setters 26:36 Chris's portfolio — gold, silver, junior miners and why productive capacity matters 27:18 Viewer question — Basel III, central banks, and gold as a tier one asset 29:44 What Chris is watching and writing about next week 31:12 Where to find Chris and The Institutional Risk Analyst — 25% off for viewers

    33 min

  6. 26 FEB

    #343 Bill Fleckenstein: We're in a Completely Unprecedented Market Environment — And When It Changes, It's Going to Be a Really Big Deal

    Bill Fleckenstein, founder and president of Fleckenstein Capital, returns for a wide-ranging conversation covering what he calls one of the most confusing macro environments of his 40-plus year career. He breaks down how the passive bid has fundamentally changed market dynamics, creating an artificially priced market that is not a true price discovery mechanism and cannot end well. Beneath the surface of a tape that is only a couple percent off all-time highs, Bill sees a stealth rotation away from high-flying tech and AI names into old economy stocks — but without the contagion a pre-passive-bid market would have experienced. On gold, Bill explains why the move to $5,000 is a function of eroding confidence, weaponized financial systems, and unmanageable sovereign debt — and why the bull market is far from over since Americans have barely shown up to the party. He also issues a pointed warning on bonds, arguing the bond market has not sanctioned the Fed's rate cuts in what could be the early stages of the market taking the printing press away from the Fed — and predicts yield curve control is likely coming under the next Fed chair regardless of who it is. Links: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/ 0:00 Intro and welcome back Bill Fleckenstein 1:39 Big picture macro view - "confused" 4:24 Splatterings beneath the surface — what's really happening in the market 5:51 The passive bid explained — why rotation feels impossible 7:25 The tape holds together while market cap gets destroyed underneath 10:58 Why the market isn't cracking — what would have happened without the passive bid 12:40 Is this still a free market? The dangerous setup nobody appreciates 15:16 Short selling 18:23 Bill's positioning 19:21 Gold at $5,100 24:18 Silver 30:33 Why gold should have been higher all along the way 36:00 US debt at $38.7 trillion — is there a breaking point or slow erosion? 37:49 Bonds — the big story most people are missing 40:00 Is the bond market losing trust in the Fed? 41:00 The bond market will ultimately take the printing press away from the Fed 42:06 Inflation psychology — why the consequences of inflation are not transitory 44:45 Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair 45:37 Yield curve control is coming 49:04 What would get Bill to deploy his 30-40% cash position 51:26 The biggest risk nobody is talking about — the passive bid 54:26 Parting thoughts and where to find Bill — fleckensteincapital.com

    57 min

  7. 21 FEB

    #342 Chris Whalen: The Wharf Rats Are Coming Out — And Retail Investors Will Lose Money

    In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen analyzes the Blue Owl situation as part of a broader pattern in private credit. He argues that private credit firms purchasing insurance companies is "the fox getting into the hen house" since insurance assets are held at book value rather than marked to market, beyond easy regulator reach. Chris makes the case that public markets are superior due to transparency and liquidity, while private markets mainly benefit Wall Street through higher fees, and predicts roughly half of private equity managers will struggle to raise capital due to poor performance. From his Washington visit, Chris notes redistricting has left few genuinely competitive House seats, discusses a Supreme Court case on Voting Rights Act enforcement, and predicts 2028 will be Rahm Emanuel versus Marco Rubio. He explains Vice Chair Michelle Bowman's proposal to roll back Basel III mortgage restrictions that have discouraged bank housing finance for 15 years. On silver, Chris describes Chinese exchanges imposing trading limits due to supply constraints, commercial buyers sourcing from artisanal mines, and potential COMEX cash settlement, noting he continues adding to gold and silver positions despite volatility. Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    Timestamps: 0:00 Preview: The fox getting into the hen house 0:38 Welcome back — Blue Owl and the private credit blowup 1:23 Chris's reaction to Blue Owl restricting redemptions 3:19 Why this matters for retail investors and retirees 4:21 Two reasons this matters — volatility and annuity risk 5:59 How many people truly understand this risk? 6:47 It's not a headline issue until it becomes one 9:22 The Modigliani-Miller Theorem explained 11:12 Do you dabble in private markets at all? 12:18 How do you see this ultimately playing out? 13:05 Half of all PE managers will go out of business 15:12 Do you get pushback from the industry? 16:06 Moving to DC — upcoming midterms 16:45 The disconnect between media narrative and reality 18:22 Supreme Court case on Voting Rights Act 20:33 Base case for midterms — who takes the House? 22:42 Trump administration's communication problems 23:30 Bold call: Rahm Emanuel for Democratic nomination 2028 24:56 The case for Rahm Emanuel 27:09 Marco Rubio vs Rahm Emanuel prediction 28:23 Michelle Bowman's significant speech on Basel III 30:07 How Basel III distorted the mortgage market for 15 years 32:15 What's going on in silver specifically? 34:55 The silver squeeze — producers going to artisanal mines 36:01 Still long gold and silver, adding positions 37:01 What Chris is watching next week

    40 min

  8. 19 FEB

    #341 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Americans' Financial Wellbeing Just Hit a Record Low — And the Fed Is Discussing a Hike?

    In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, calls the Federal Reserve "borderline cruel" after FOMC minutes revealed several participants wanted rate hikes despite Americans' financial wellbeing hitting record lows. Danielle argues we're already in a labor market recession that "won't be acknowledged for years but is undeniable to the people who are in it," pointing to unprecedented data: 12 consecutive months of negative payroll revisions, 419,000 net job losses when excluding education and health services, seasonal adjustment anomalies adding 140,000 phantom jobs in January, and unemployment survey response rates at record lows making the data unreliable. She highlights that Truflation shows inflation at just 0.7% while the Fed maintains hawkish rhetoric, that 52% of college graduates are underemployed with another graduating class arriving in two months, and that AI is destroying entry-level jobs in finance, accounting, and architecture without any retraining programs in place. Danielle warns about the societal implications of Gen Z and millennials (52.5% of voters) increasingly using buy now pay later for basic necessities like medical bills and utilities, while others use it for vacations with no intention of paying it back. She questions whether Kevin Warsh will hold to his stated principles about shrinking the Fed's balance sheet or cave to market pressure like Powell did in 2018, and reveals that Fed governor Michael Barr is already hinting at expanded social safety nets or UBI to address AI-driven unemployment. Danielle refuses to "gaslight Americans" about the economy and emphasizes the urgent need to think about retraining workers and the societal implications of mass youth unemployment. Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome back Danielle DiMartino Booth 0:52 FOMC minutes: Several participants want rate hikes 1:46 Americans' financial wellbeing at record lows — the disconnect 3:31 Truflation at 0.7% — what the Fed is missing 5:27 What's the Fed missing on the labor side? 7:06 Labor recession in plain sight — concentrated in non-cyclical sectors 8:28 Buy now pay later for medical and dental bills 9:32 Gen Z and millennials: Taking on debt with no intention to pay 11:00 A revolt against the system? 12:15 The Fed didn't listen to your open letters 13:40 Rate hike talk while small business borrowing costs are "prohibitively tight" 14:59 Fed being sanguine on credit delinquencies 16:14 What would be the responsible thing for the Fed to do? 17:12 "It's getting personal" — Americans worried about losing their own jobs 18:02 52% of college graduates are underemployed 18:42 Is this AI or just an excuse? 20:08 What happens in 2028 if the pendulum swings? 21:32 Kevin Warsh — will he stick to his principles? 24:01 Is the Fed too beholden to the market? 25:15 Unemployment survey response rate at record lows 27:23 Base case for the economy — labor market recession continues 28:56 What keeps you up at night and what makes you hopeful?

    31 min
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About

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Information

  • Creator
    Julia La Roche
  • Years Active
    2022 - 2026
  • Episodes
    349
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Julia La Roche
  • Show Website
    The Julia La Roche Show

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