The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche
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Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

  1. 2 HR AGO

    #371 George Noble: Fed's Hands Tied, Bond Vigilantes Waking Up, Buy the Dip Dead, Margin of Safety Thin

    George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors, returns to review his February predictions on bonds, energy, and the AI trade, warning that the margin of safety is particularly small right now as there's no room for error with stocks highly valued, companies over-earning, and policymakers unable to ease on either fiscal or monetary fronts. He explains bond vigilantes are awakening as yields hit 30-year highs in Japan and 20-year highs in Europe, predicts the Fed cutting rates against surging inflation will backfire spectacularly, and reveals forward oil contracts are finally rising as the market believes this situation won't pass quickly. Noble declares we're in the "golden age for stock picking" after active managers got killed by ETFs for years, warns the consumer is already in recession with stocks like Home Depot, Lowe's, McDonald's, and Lululemon making multi-year relative lows, and explains his long resources/short consumer-tech spread has generated 10% returns in six weeks. He argues many stocks are in a bubble not because of high PEs but because of unsustainable margins (using shipping stocks as an analogy), reveals consumer ETFs are actually 40% Mag 7, confirms his "death of financialization" thesis as bond markets discipline politicians, and explains why Kevin Warsh is stuck between a rock and hard place with limited policy tools as the buy-the-dip mentality dies. Links: George Noble's Best Income Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/ X: https://x.com/gnoble79 Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenoble Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Big picture macro update since February 0:40 Reviewing previous predictions - Energy, bonds, AI trade 3:32 Margin of safety particularly small right now 5:30 Forward curve moving up - Market believing oil situation won't pass quickly 6:02 Rising oil prices and bond yields - Not positive for risk assets 8:40 Tech leadership unsustainable - Tremendous blow off top 11:00 Buying semis on 8x book historically not a good idea 12:26 Equal weight S&P underperforming - Broader market not doing well 14:21 Long resources, short consumer and tech - 10% return spread 17:03 Bond market move confirming death of financialization thesis 19:52 Fed cutting rates against surging inflation and exploding deficits will backfire 21:15 Bond market vigilantes being awakened 23:38 Japan as canary in coal mine on debt problem 25:33 Gold miners outstanding right now - Out of favor 27:04 Regime shift happening - 60-40 model is dead 29:36 Fed is not in control - They follow the market 32:16 This is the golden age for stock picking 34:21 AI trade - Biggest misallocation of capital in history of the world 36:44 Many stocks in a bubble - Margins are the problem, not PEs 38:37 Shipping stocks example - Bubble in earnings, not valuation 40:20 Consumer is in recession 42:06 Inflation permeating - Gold to energy to food 43:28 Rates won't matter until they matter - Temperature analogy 45:51 Kevin Warsh stuck between rock and hard place 46:38 Margin of safety explained - Seth Klarman's wisdom 50:11 Death of buy the dip mentality 51:27 ETFs are not the answer - Do you know what's in your ETF? 52:53 Golden age of stock picking - Active managers killing it now 54:41 Shorting is a bad business - Just avoid garbage stocks 56:50 Best Income Ideas Conference - May 20th 59:05 Closing thoughts

    46 min

  2. 3 DAYS AGO

    #370 Chris Whalen: Why Double-Digit Inflation Is Possible, 30-Year Tops 5%

    In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed chair and explains why this represents a dramatic shift from the progressive, statist Fed created by Mariner Eccles in the 1930s to a supply-side approach. Whalen reveals that Fed chairs have enormous unilateral power and predicts Warsh will reduce the balance sheet and reserves while trading off lower short-term rates, ending the regime where "every time the market hiccupped, the Fed ran in and dumped more reserves." He warns the 30-year bond topping 5% is just the beginning, with the long end potentially hitting 6% as Iran war impacts drive inflation to double digits by year end, possibly requiring rationing of key petroleum byproducts before the midterms. Whalen explains why silver is surging (Chinese tech demand, solid-state batteries, reduced mining) while discussing non-bank mortgage drama with United Wholesale Mortgage potentially becoming "the next Countrywide." He argues stocks will continue rising as inflation hedges, dismisses apocalyptic debt scenarios since the world needs dollars for trade, and predicts we'll need to get used to mortgages in the 6-7% range instead of 4-5% under higher-for-longer. Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817 Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira845 Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Silver soars, Warsh confirmed, 30-year bond tops 5% 0:32 Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair - What changes now? 6:14 Market 7:29 Banks bought back more stock than they made money 9:00 30-year bond hits 5% for first time since 2008 9:56 Planning rationing strategies for key materials from petroleum 11:04 Could get to double-digit inflation by end of year 12:28 Long end of curve could get closer to 6% than 5% 12:56 Trump meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing - How big of a deal? 14:25 Dow hitting 50,000 - Blow off top or still runway? 19:02 Silver surging - What's going on? 21:03 The next Countrywide? 24:29 End game with higher for longer under Warsh 27:09 Viewer mail - National debt and market impact 29:19 Will Warsh treat Iran war inflation as self-correcting? 30:33 What Chris is watching next week/closing thoughts

    33 min

  3. 5 DAYS AGO

    #369 Melody Wright: 35-50% Housing Correction Needed, First Wave 10-12% Coming

    Melody Wright, author of M3 Melody Substack, returns to the show for an in-person episode to discuss the frozen spring selling season and reveals disturbing signs of distress bubbling beneath the surface, including mortgage delinquencies rising at the exact time of year they should be falling. She exposes the "rage delisting" phenomenon where stubborn sellers refuse price cuts despite a massive inventory buildup, explains why the housing shortage narrative is a myth perpetuated by builders seeking a bailout, and warns that prime mortgages are now showing weakness for the first time. Melody argues that a 35-50% price correction is needed for median household income to afford median home prices, with the first wave of 10-12% likely over the next couple years. She reveals a massive shadow inventory wave from boomers that could add 20% more homes each year for the next decade, discusses how investors are fire selling (one investor dumping 300 rentals in a single market), and predicts the back half of 2026 could be "really ugly" as forbearance programs expire. Her advice: sellers should cut prices quickly to avoid cutting further, while buyers should stay patient because "the supply is coming." Links: YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melody X: https://x.com/m3_melody Substack: https://m3melody.substack.com/ Timestamps 0:00 Introduction - Melody Wright returns, spring selling season 1:59 Housing market assessment - "Take three of another year frozen" 5:28 Distress bubbling under the surface 8:15 Why the shortage narrative is so pervasive 11:46 Tracking 86 markets now 15:05 Most worrisome areas - The delusional northeast 16:11 Boomer stubbornness and shadow inventory wave 16:38 How big is the shadow inventory? 20% increase for next 10 years 18:22 How far do prices need to correct? 35% to 50% 20:42 Warning signals 24:25 Most important thing overlooked 27:36 Base case - 35% to 50% correction over significant time 28:46 Spring season warning 29:54 Back half of year could be really ugly 30:17 Shortage of affordable homes because they're mispriced 30:58 Advice for sellers - Get real appraisal, cut quickly 32:36 Advice for buyers - Stay stubborn, wait for math to work 33:04 How does this feel different from 2008? 36:45 Who's buying now if institutionals are fire selling? 37:57 Parting words - Patience for buyers, supply is coming

    39 min

  4. 12 MAY

    #368 Michael Pento: The i-Shaped Economy Destroying the Middle Class, $2 Trillion Private Credit Bubble, and Why Credit Markets Will Fracture First

    Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 368 to warn that the three asset bubbles in stocks, credit, and real estate continue growing to unprecedented levels, with total market cap now at 230% of GDP versus a 90% average. He reveals that Powell has quietly printed $170 billion since December in an undeclared QE program, calls Powell's tenure "horrific," and celebrates his departure. Pento explains he's "nervously long" the market using his five-sector inflation-deflation model, currently positioned for stagflation with commodities, precious metals, and energy. He warns that credit markets will fracture first, with private credit now at $2 trillion (bigger than the $1.3 trillion subprime market in 2008), and predicts June redemptions could trigger a death spiral. Pento believes we need a 50% market correction to return to normalcy, warns we could see 15% interest rates like the 1980s but with a far worse debt backdrop, and argues the bottom 80% of Americans are already living in depression-like conditions while crony capitalism enriches the top 20%. He sees two paths forward: voluntary asset price reconciliation or forced hyperinflation leading to currency reset. Links: https://pentoport.com/ https://twitter.com/michaelpento 0:00 Introduction - Michael Pento returns after 6 months 0:59 Big picture macro view - Bubbles grow bigger 2:19 Powell's "horrific tenure" - $4.5 trillion printed 3:32 QE program continues - $170 billion since December 4:39 Kevin Warsh-led Fed - What changes are coming? 5:52 Warsh will punish Wall Street, boost Main Street 7:06 Stock bubble metrics - 230% of GDP (average is 90%) 8:24 Crony capitalism vs. free market economics 9:10 Why capitalism gets a bad name 10:01 Home price to income ratio at all-time highs 11:01 Disconnect between stock market highs and consumer sentiment lows 11:35 Only top 20% doing well - The "i-shaped economy" 12:33 AI spending reminds Michael of 1999 tech bubble 13:33 Are you confident Kevin Warsh can get us back to normalcy? 14:41 What would normal market valuations look like? 15:06 Would need 50% correction to return to normal 17:05 Wouldn't printing just set us up for more problems? 18:57 Either scenario leads to higher rates 19:37 Implications of double-digit rates on everything 20:38 Are you still nervously long the market? 21:19 Michael's not a perma bear - History of market crashes 23:02 How dangerous can this bubble be when it bursts? 24:03 Michael's 5-sector inflation-deflation model 25:14 Precious metals trade - Why only 6% position 26:41 Energy thesis - After Iran war 27:30 Explaining the 5 sectors - Which is most worrisome? 28:25 Stagflation is the base case going forward 29:01 Post-recession: $6 trillion deficits, $12 trillion Fed balance sheet 29:55 Could we see 15% interest rates like 1980? 31:17 What's the end game here? 33:21 Are we past the point of no return? 34:58 Which bubble bursts first - The epicenter? 35:44 Watch credit markets first - Private credit warning 36:46 June redemptions could trigger death spiral 37:47 Is private credit too big to fail now? 38:21 Risk not getting attention - Pressure on middle class 40:00 Buy now pay later defaults surging 40:29 Bottom 80% living in depression conditions 41:18 Preventing tremors creates epic shocks 42:48 Has anyone talked about $170 billion of QE since December? 43:24 What makes Michael hopeful for the future 44:01 Closing thoughts

    45 min

  5. 9 MAY

    #367 Chris Whalen: "No Rate Cuts For a While" — Warsh's Fed Earthquake, Silver Shortage, and Why Inflation Is Here to Stay

    Warsh's arrival at the Fed actually means in practice — significant personnel changes, new models, and what Chris calls nothing short of an "earthquake at the central bank." Chris explains why there will be no rate cuts for a while, why the Fed balance sheet is growing again despite Warsh wanting to shrink it, and the one-to-one relationship between the balance sheet and public debt that most people aren't talking about. Plus: silver is in physical shortage and can't be delivered in parts of Asia, private credit is getting quiet as the bad headlines pile up, AMD is Chris's AI play of choice, and why the Iran war means "traumatic shortages by June" even if a deal were struck tomorrow. Chris also answers viewer questions on Warsh shrinking the balance sheet, gold under a tightening regime, the PennyMac LIBOR lawsuit, and Annaly Capital earnings. And Julia closes on her first house. Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817 Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira842 Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome & intro 0:49 Fed balance sheet growing again even though Warsh wants to shrink it 1:08 The one-to-one relationship between the Fed balance sheet and public debt 3:28 Will we continue to see a more inflationary environment? 3:37 Silver on a tear — physical shortage, can't deliver the metal 4:41 Still money pouring into private credit 8:32 Too many dollars chasing too few returns — what this means for markets 11:10 Are we setting up for a longer term risk? 12:13 GameStop CEO's bid for eBay — what does Chris make of it? 14:08 Changing the models, retiring staff — "an earthquake at the central bank" 16:32 "No rate cuts for a while" — Warsh has to establish rapport first 19:25 Iran hostilities dragging on — how much longer is this a major risk? the year 23:02 Adding to gold positions — "the selloff was a gift" 25:36 Mortgage sector — rates up, companies waiting for cuts that aren't coming 26:16 Banks not attractive right now — what would make them more attractive? 27:30 Viewer Q — How could Warsh shrink the Fed balance sheet? 27:56 Scarce reserve regime — T-bills, discount window, can he get it done? 29:02 Viewer Q — Is gold a good investment under a tightening regime? 29:52 Viewer Q — PennyMac lawsuit over LIBOR/SOFR transition 31:31 Viewer Q — Annaly Capital earnings — "good earnings, beat expectations" 32:13 What is Chris watching next week? 33:17 GoldCo sponsor — goldco.com/thewrap — 855-573-0817

    33 min

  6. 7 MAY

    #366 Michael Green: Why A 1987-Style Crash Is Now Almost Inevitable — Here's the Math

    Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 366 to break down what he calls the most important and overlooked structural shift in financial history — the rise of passive investing. Green argues that the market isn't broken in the way most people think: it's not fraud or irrational exuberance, it's the mechanical consequence of a regulatory change in 2006 that turned 401k contributions into an automatic, valuation-blind buying machine. With passive now at 55% of the market — and rising 4% per year — Green shares new research showing that somewhere between 65% and 80%, a 1987-style crash stops being a possibility and becomes nearly inevitable. He also connects the dots between our retirement system, the housing crisis, and why both boomers and millennials are scared — just for completely different reasons. Links: Follow Mike on X: https://twitter.com/profplum99Read Mike’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/Visit Simplify: https://www.simplify.us/ Timestamps 00:00 Intro and welcome Mike Green 1:04 - What "broken markets" actually means today 2:40 - The Costanza market and how Mike's research began 6:21 - Passive went from 2% to 55% of the market since 1992 7:05 - Why passive investing is just momentum with no valuation filter 9:45 - The 2006 Pension Protection Act — the legislation nobody talks about 10:13 - Why Vanguard and Bogle aren't the ones to blame 10:19 - The book: The Greatest Story Ever Sold 10:39 - The academic paper that forced Mike to rewrite the book 13:59 - Type A vs Type B savers — and the snow cone moment 14:35 - Prices don't move because of information. They move because of flows. 15:08 - The threshold: 65–80% passive and the market becomes unstable 16:07 - Why the coming crash could be worse than 1987 19:37 - The XIV collapse — and what it taught Mike about predicting crashes 22:00 - Is there a disconnect between markets and the economy right now? 22:19 - Nvidia's margins, vendor financing, and the Cisco parallel 24:10 - The S&P could be worth less than 2,000 on a pure DCF basis 25:29 - Pushing back on the "we've never been better off" narrative 27:21 - The valley of death and the precarity line 28:36 - Why demographics are at the center of everything 29:29 - Why boomers are terrified too — and why that matters for younger people 31:14 - The housing trap: boomers won't sell, millennials can't buy 34:21 - What does all this say about the social fabric? 35:18 - "Tax wealth, not work" — the tax code we had in the 1950s 36:41 - Why a wealth tax is actually the wrong solution 38:11 - Wrap up

    39 min

  7. 5 MAY

    #365 Rick Rule: 'All The News I See Is Bad' — Oil Shortage, Gold & Why The Worst Is Still Ahead

    Veteran natural resource investor Rick Rule, CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, returns to break down a rapidly deteriorating macro picture, warning that oil markets are currently pricing in anticipation of a shortage — not the shortage itself — and that the next seven to ten days could be a watershed moment if the Gulf conflict doesn't de-escalate. He explains why gold may moderate near term despite the chaos (strong dollar, rising yields), but remains convicted it will preserve purchasing power over the next decade as the US dollar loses 75% of its purchasing power. Rick also flags uranium and nuclear power as the clearest long-term beneficiary of the energy crisis, updates his silver miner trade (up ~21%), and sounds the alarm on a potential credit crunch in private and junk bond markets that few are talking about. 00:00 — Introduction 00:43 — Oil crisis: why prices are "anticipatory" & what happens in 7–10 days 06:07 — The truth about gold & fear (it's not what you think) 08:03 — Long bonds breach 5% — what that means for you 11:31 — How to protect yourself: liquidity, gold & balance sheets 15:36 — Gold at $4,800 & the silver miner trade update 19:35 — Oil above $100 and what it signals about the global economy 22:47 — Why the next 7–10 days are critical 27:28 — The biggest unsung winner of this war: uranium & nuclear 31:07 — How to actually invest in uranium (names & tickers) 32:53 — Near-term bleak, long-term better — Rick's full outlook 34:05 — Why is the stock market hitting new highs during a war? 37:06 — New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: hawk or not? 38:54 — Where we are in the commodity super cycle 41:44 — Battle Bank update + Symposium + free portfolio ranking offer

    48 min

  8. 2 MAY

    #364: Chris Whalen: Powell Stays to "Block Trump" — Warsh Faces Major Obstacles and "The Fed Caused High Home Prices"

    In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down what he calls one of the most significant weeks in Fed history — Powell's final press conference as chairman, his decision to stay on as a Fed governor to block Trump from a second appointment, and what it means for Kevin Warsh walking into a hostile committee with the most dissenting votes since 1992. Chris explains why the Fed has been "the key engine of progressive socialism in Washington" since 1935, what a Warsh-led Fed actually looks like in practice, and why the Trump White House missed a political layup by not hanging "the burning tire of home price affordability" around Powell's neck. Plus: why sulfur — not oil — is the one word that sums up the biggest threat to the global economy right now, what China's sulfuric acid export ban means for copper, silver, and inflation, and why distressed real estate is "the next trade." Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817 Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira840 Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome & intro — what a week it was 2:05 Powell staying as fed governor 5:08 Warsh — "a hawk on inflation but a supply sider" 7:15 Powell's warning about regional Fed presidents 8:10 What can we expect from a Warsh-led Fed? 11:30 "The burning tire they should have hung around Powell's neck" 12:25 "What would be the message?" — Chris on political messaging and affordability 14:44 What change is Chris most looking forward to at the Fed? 16:41 Inflation is accelerating 17:28 Sulfur — the one word that sums up the global economic threat 20:17 What is Chris doing with his precious metals right now? 21:17 US equity markets hitting record highs — what does Chris make of it? 24:30 Distressed real estate is "the next trade" 29:40 One year anniversary of Inflated — reflection and what's come to fruition 34:32 What is Chris watching next week?

    38 min
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About

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Information

  • Creator
    Julia La Roche
  • Years Active
    2022 - 2026
  • Episodes
    373
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Julia La Roche
  • Show Website
    The Julia La Roche Show

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