The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche
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Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

  1. 7 hr ago

    #397 Mickey Maini: What Physics Knows That Markets Don't — And Why the Next 2 Years Are the Toughest

    Mickey Maini, founder of Solstice Laboratory, makes his debut on The Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, he lays out the thesis behind his new book The Entropy Trap: financial systems, like all systems, require energy to hold their shape, and as complexity rises and trust decays, the energy needed to maintain order climbs until the system transitions into something new. He argues we're between two systems now, sitting in the third of five stages — control — one policy misstep away from fracture. Maini explains why the Fed's real job this decade is defending collateral rather than setting rates, why three stresses (geopolitics, debt, and innovation) are compounding rather than merely adding for the first time in decades, and why the honest tell on AI is the credit market rather than the equity market. Along the way: what central bank gold buying is actually signaling, his scenario range for gold, the US-China choke point war that will determine who writes the next system, and why the trader who made $100 million in 1929 lost it all while the one who ignored prices did fine. Maini began in investment banking, then scaled an emerging-markets conglomerate from $100 million to over $5 billion as its CEO, then taught at one of Asia's leading public policy schools. Today he runs his family office and Solstice Laboratory (solsticelabs.com) - an independent research lab in Dubai that applies physics to markets and geopolitics, studying the moments when systems stop moving in cycles and change state. Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: The Entropy Trap book: https://www.amazon.com/Entropy-Trap-Physics-Knows-Markets/dp/B0H1ZP7NZX/ref=sr_1_1 Substack: https://solsticelaboratory.substack.com/ Website: https://solsticelabs.com/ Timestamps: 0:00 — Intro and welcome: Mickey Maini, The Entropy Trap1:58 — Order is rented, and the rent just went up2:40 — The five stages: print, spend, control, fracture, force4:24 — 1973 economically, 1938 militarily, 1978 for the Fed6:24 — What tips us from control into fracture9:02 — Why every Fed intervention buys less time than the last13:00 — The Fed's next decade: defending collateral, not setting rates15:42 — Indonesia 1998, and why the models stopped working17:10 — Indonesia had surgery. The US took morphine.20:44 — Three stresses that compound: geopolitics, debt, innovation25:00 — Gold as money's ground state, and what central banks are signaling27:10 — The scenarios: $8K–25K, base case $10–15K30:31 — Livermore, Baruch, Kennedy — who lost it all and who won34:30 — The tell on AI isn't equity. Watch the Oracle CDS.36:00 — 75% of US growth is one trade38:03 — Five to seven years to a new system, the next two the toughest39:04 — China settles in gold. The US builds stablecoins.41:35 — Velocity of stress: the master signal, and why it hasn't turned50:42 — What the dashboard is flashing right now53:04 — Don't own long bonds. Invest in yourself.

  2. 3 days ago

    #396 Chris Whalen: Warsh Has A Credibility Problem, Gold's Real Signal, & Your Annuity May Not Be Safe

    In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris joins Julia La Roche to argue that Kevin Warsh has a credibility problem: he's holding rates, avoiding confrontation with a divided board, and saying almost nothing, while the bond market does the tightening for him with the ten-year near 4.7% and mortgages headed toward seven-plus. Whalen's prescription is blunt — take back last year's cuts with two quarter-point hikes, consider a surprise August move, raise margin requirements, and keep shrinking the balance sheet, because Treasury is the dog and the Fed is barely the tail. From there the conversation ranges across a coming diesel and fertilizer shortage nobody in Washington will discuss, gold's role as real money in Asia versus a paper price in the West, and Whalen's own portfolio, from Annaly and Rhythm Capital to Flagstar and roughly a fifth in precious metals. The back half turns spicy with Tom Gober's new guest post on life insurers: private-credit-controlled annuity writers reinsuring liabilities offshore without posting enough assets behind them, hidden by state secrecy laws and rubber-stamped by ratings agencies that were never working for you. Plus PennyMac's bad quarter, George Gleason's construction-lending model at Bank OZK, and mailbag questions on SpaceX and mining stocks. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Thomas Gober guest article: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira874 Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 — Intro: no, the show isn't being cancelled 1:52 — Warsh's first pressers: three dissenters and a chairman who says nothing 5:42 — How Warsh gets credibility: take back last year's cuts 7:20 — Trump stays quiet on Warsh — plus a coming diesel and fertilizer squeeze 8:46 — Is the economy finally slowing? The fading power of deficits 10:22 — "Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail" 11:30 — The case for a surprise August hike and less forward guidance 12:56 — Gold, Keith Weiner, and the permanent backwardation thesis 15:38 — Gold as bank capital: pledging metal as repo collateral 16:37 — Whalen's book: Annaly, Rhythm, miners, energy, Schwab, Flagstar 19:41 — PennyMac's ugly quarter and why it drags the whole mortgage group down 21:23 — Bank OZK vs. the big banks on commercial real estate 23:19 — Tom Gober's guest post: is your life insurer actually solvent? 27:00 — Offshore reinsurance, secrecy states, and why ratings won't save you 29:36 — Mailbag: SpaceX below IPO price — buy more or bail? 31:53 — Mailbag: miners vs. metal, GLD/GDX vs. SLV/SIL 35:13 — What's next: mortgage earnings, the bank 50, and the gold book

  3. 5 days ago

    Danielle DiMartino Booth: Nobody's Happy, Cracks Are Showing, & the Bond Market Already Tightened

    Danielle DiMartino Booth breaks down a contentious FOMC meeting where new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates steady over three dissents, arguing the "good family fight" reflects a real fault line between district bank presidents and governors rather than idle disagreement. She reads Warsh as deliberately dismantling forward guidance, pushing the Fed to stop acting as the market's referee, and leaning toward a trimmed-mean view of inflation while insisting the 2% target stays non-negotiable. Beneath the policy debate, she sees an economy propped up almost entirely by the top 10% and the AI investment boom, with mounting cracks underneath: widening CCC high-yield spreads, bankruptcies at 15-year highs, record apartment concessions on luxury units, softening wage growth, and falling freight demand across trucking and ocean shipping. Her core worry is that if the top of the K "stutters" — as the AI bubble deflates or the wealth effect fades — the pain trickles down onto an already-struggling bottom half, and she's positioning around gold as credit conditions tighten. Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 00:00 — Intro and welcome 00:35 — Immediate take on the FOMC hold with three dissenters; Warsh's "robust discussion" and four questions 02:42 — Is it a deeper split? Waller standing with Warsh; district bank presidents vs. governors 03:48 — Why strategists are throwing a "hissy fit"; abandoning forward guidance, Fed stepping back as referee 05:01 — The 2% inflation target described as non-negotiable 05:47 — Did it make sense to hold? The five shocks, "team transitory" slip, trimmed-mean inflation 07:13 — Is the door open for a September hike? 08:53 — Kalshi prediction-market odds for September (53% hike / 45% hold) 09:57 — Market reaction; NASDAQ's late-day fall off a cliff 11:52 — Why the FOMC minutes may be the real story 12:20 — Economy assessment via alternative data: waste-management volumes, GDP, Indeed wages 14:38 — How inflation should really be measured; P&G, purchasing power, World Cup hiring 16:09 — Cracks emerging: CCC high-yield spreads, 15-year-high bankruptcies, apartment concessions 18:52 — The K-shaped economy, the wealth effect, and international travel as a bellwether 21:01 — Does she agree with the hold? Her public call for a hike 21:52 — The bond market has done the tightening for the Fed 22:11 — The move in gold vs. Bitcoin, and what it signals about credit 23:07 — More breakage coming in credit; distressed debt exchanges as "polite" Chapter 11 24:29 — What investors are missing: truck stops, ocean freight, inventory restocking, Austria/BMW 29:32 — What she's watching into September; tax refunds, World Cup aftermath, the top of the K 32:25 — Parting thoughts

  4. 25 Jul

    #394 Chris Whalen: 5% Yields, 7% Mortgages, Double-Digit Inflation & the End of the Party

    In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down why the stablecoin boom may be running out of road — giving the Clarity Act less than 50/50 odds and arguing it could strip the yield out of coins, force issuers offshore, and turn the survivors into banks. He makes the case that stablecoins are little more than "prepaid gift cards," lays out why he's bullish on gold and silver as central banks and China chase physical metal, and warns that real inflation — measured by commodity inputs like energy and sulfur (up 150% since the Iran war), not the CPI — is closing in on double digits. Whalen also sees the 10-year Treasury pushing past 5% and mortgages settling into a "higher for longer" 6.5–7%, flags the mortgage sector as the earnings story to watch, takes aim at Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy, points to safer places to find yield, and keeps circling back to one unsettling parallel: today looks a lot like the 1920s, right before the party ended. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 – Intro 0:45 – The Clarity Act: will it kill stablecoins? 3:34 – Do stablecoins have any real use case? 5:17 – Why we may need fewer banks — and more insurers 8:22 – Do stablecoins actually create Treasury demand? 10:16 – Chris's next book: gold 12:20 – Gold's pullback and the bull case for silver 16:37 – Goldman's $4,900 target & John Paulson on gold 17:53 – The BLS quietly redefines inflation 19:40 – A 2% target, a 6% deficit, and 5% yields 22:07 – Why mortgage earnings are the story to watch 24:29 – Affordability, home prices & the blue-state squeeze 26:42 – Why it all rhymes with the 1920s 28:44 – Viewer Q&A: the real double-digit inflation 32:12 – MSTR yields, Saylor & where to find safe income 36:28 – Closing thoughts: the mortgage shakeout ahead

  5. 23 Jul

    #393 Chris Irons: Something Will Break The Market, Sharp Deleveraging Ahead, Why The Fed Will Fold, & Gold Could Hit $7,500

    Financial commentator Chris Irons, also known as Quoth the Raven on X and author of the popular QTR Fringe Finance substack, returns to the show with a sobering assessment of markets he says are at or above the highest valuations in history — propped up by a passive bid, options-driven flows, and ten mega-cap names carrying everyone's retirement. Irons explains why he's stepped back from active trading permanently, why he believes the SpaceX IPO's $2 trillion ask may have marked a top in AI euphoria, and why Kevin Warsh's inflation-fighting promises will crumble the moment equities fall 10-20%. He shares where he's finding opportunity — including his early psychedelics call that's crushed the market this year, emerging markets, and beaten-down gold miners — and warns that the most underappreciated risks lie in stablecoins, crypto leverage, private credit, and regional banks. His bottom line: a sharp deleveraging is coming, the Fed will fold at the first sign of discomfort, and gold could hit $7,500 or higher after the next round of money printing. This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: X: https://x.com/QTRResearch Substack: Viewers/listeners of The Julia La Roche Show get 80% off an annual subscription of QTR's Fringe Finance https://quoththeraven.substack.com/subscribe?coupon=7c8478df&utm_content=207295644 Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and welcome back 00:57 Big picture: Fed stuck between a rock and a hard place 03:18 Out-of-control fiscal policy and the "sovereign Ponzi scheme" 05:41 Private equity repackaged in insurance wrappers (2008 echoes) 06:30 SpaceX IPO as a possible top signal for the AI bubble 07:38 Why Chris stepped back from active trading permanently 12:01 "Being right vs. making money" 13:15 Life after trading: clarity, priorities, and more content 14:45 Diagnosing the market: passive bid, gamma squeezes, and index distortion 16:35 The case for equal-weight (RSP) over cap-weighted S&P 18:30 Michael Burry's AI build-out vs. dot-com comparison 21:10 Opportunities: the psychedelics thesis and how it played out 27:00 Gold and miners: buying the pullback, $7,500 gold scenario 30:45 What to expect from a Kevin Warsh-led Fed 34:36 Should inflation even be the Fed's mandate? 36:04 Arbitrary prices and permanently distorted markets 37:45 The vocal track analogy: too many plugins on the economy 40:10 Why active trading is impossible in a headline-driven market 41:27 Most underappreciated risks: stablecoins, Tether, and crypto contagion 43:30 Corporate fraud, private credit, regional banks, and subprime auto 46:01 Closing thoughts and subscriber discount

  6. 21 Jul

    #392 George Noble: The Liquidity Cycle Has Turned — Markets Face a "Wile E. Coyote Moment"

    George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors and former Fidelity fund manager under Peter Lynch, returns with a stark warning: the global liquidity cycle has turned. Citing "liquidity king" Michael Howell, Noble argues that surging deficits, sticky inflation, and a worldwide capex boom have stripped away the policy safety net markets have relied on since 2009 — setting up a potential "Wile E. Coyote moment" where stocks take a dirt nap and the Fed can't respond. He says the Fed isn't in control, Mr. Market is, and bond yields at 4.5% are "much too low" — fair value may be closer to 5.5-6%. Noble calls the AI trade "far worse than dot-com," with malinvestment 17 times larger, hyperscalers destroying free cash flow, and semis a "huge short." His playbook: ditch the 60/40 portfolio, own the reflation trade — gold, silver, energy, copper, uranium — and he names specific stocks including SSRM, Coeur, Valaris, and CRGY. Plus: why the yen carry trade could break, the TLT-in-Turkish-lira lesson on real money, and his most emphatic call of all — "run, don't walk" from SpaceX before the float unlock. And details on his Best Stock Ideas Summit, July 22nd. Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: George Noble's Best Stock Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/ X: https://x.com/gnoble79 Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenoble Timestamps: 0:00 — Intro; George's Best Stock Ideas Summit July 22nd 1:10 — The global liquidity cycle has turned: Michael Howell's warning 4:31 — "Risk assets are extremely challenged" — rotation and dispersion is the real story 5:30 — Energy vs. Mag 7: free cash flow tells the story 7:03 — Tech is really 50% of the market — why the indices will struggle 8:20 — "Warsh is not in control, Mr. Market is" 10:04 — Why Warsh will blink: the market will force the Fed's hand 10:28 — America's Liz Truss moment? Lending to "the Bank of Julia" at 4.5% 13:34 — Policy options are gone: why this time the Fed can't rescue markets 14:55 — The "Wile E. Coyote moment" ahead for markets 16:17 — Japan: 30-year high JGB yields, the yen, and the carry trade risk 19:01 — Path vs. prediction: why bond yields are "much too low" — 5.5-6% fair value 23:27 — Why the economy shrugs off higher rates (and why that's bearish) 25:17 — All fiat is devaluing against real assets: the dollar fell 60% against gold 27:17 — Buying the gold correction; why miners could double or triple 28:05 — The TLT in Turkish lira: a lesson in your unit of account 30:10 — Why 60/40 is the worst allocation right now — "certificates of confiscation" 34:07 — "Far worse than dot-com": the margin bubble and 17x the malinvestment 36:29 — The internet grew 25 million percent — and the stocks still crashed 90% 39:21 — George names names: SSRM, Coeur, Valaris, CRGY, uranium, junior copper 40:42 — Parting thoughts: the golden age of stock picking 41:45 — SpaceX: "run, don't walk" — why the float unlock means a crash is coming 43:00 — The Best Stock Ideas Summit: 15 investors, one pick each, July 22nd

  7. 18 Jul

    #391 Chris Whalen: $4 Trillion Private Credit Risk, Double-Digit Inflation & Housing's 2005 Warning

    In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down a blockbuster week of bank earnings — and why the record numbers mask a growing problem. Wall Street trading and investment banking revenues are exploding, but banks aren't making money on money, as asset yields fall for a sixth straight quarter and private credit giants like Apollo poach deals. Whalen flags roughly $4 trillion in bank exposure to non-depository financial institutions, warns "there are no regulators in Washington" watching the risks, and says the housing market's business-purpose loan boom "feels like 2005." He sticks with his double-digit inflation call, arguing diesel — not oil — is the real story, and predicts fuel shortages, maybe even rationing, before the midterm elections. Plus: Kevin Warsh's Greenspan-style Fed debut, gold's selloff as a buying opportunity, viewer questions on Annaly, and a World Cup prediction. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira869 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 — Intro and welcome 00:55 Bank earnings and oil prices soar as Middle East war reignites 2:36 — Bank earnings disconnect: Wall Street booms, lending shrinks 3:55 — Why big deals keep going to private credit (Apollo, Blackstone) 5:59 — The hidden risk: banks lending directly to private credit funds 9:06 — The $4 trillion exposure — "no regulators watching the hen house" 10:07 — The "Everything Bubble": rising rates, falling yields, record home prices 12:06 — Kevin Warsh's Greenspan-style Fed: "inflation is a choice" 14:40 — Rate hike odds cool — will the Fed wait until after midterms? 15:42 — Energy shortages building: why the Trump administration stays quiet 16:45 — Double-digit inflation call stands; possible rationing by Election Day 17:53 — Iran destroyed Gulf refining capacity — years to rebuild 21:52 — Housing: sales fall 2.4%, median price hits record high 23:14 — "It feels like 2005" — DSCR and non-QM loans flash warning signs 27:19 — Gold selloff: why Chris is buying more (especially silver) 29:37 — Viewer Q: How rates affect Annaly (NLY) — it's all about the spread 31:03 — Viewer Q: Warsh's 2% target vs. $80 oil — a double whammy? 32:27 — Chris's World Cup prediction: Argentina

  8. 16 Jul

    #390 Ted Oakley: "It's Not a Normal Market" — A Generational Bear Could Cut Stocks 40%

    In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, returns to discuss his latest letter, "Stick to Your Principles," and why he believes today's market is anything but normal. He warns that 10-12 companies now make up half the S&P 500, speculation via leveraged ETFs is in the billions, and stocks are roughly three standard deviations above the norm — a setup he says could eventually correct 40% or more in a generational bear market. Oakley explains why investor complacency is the biggest mistake he sees, with three-quarters of all financial assets in stocks and Americans over 70 owning a third of the market. He shares where he's finding value now — energy names like Northern Oil & Gas, Kimbell Royalty, and Antero, plus beaten-down gold miners like Agnico Eagle — and recounts the hard lesson he learned chasing hot oil stocks in the late 1970s. His biggest worry: unsustainable government debt. His surprising source of optimism: a severe downturn, which he views as the buying opportunity of a generation. Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168 Timestamps: 0:00 – Introduction: Ted Oakley of Oxbow Advisors returns 0:53 – Semiconductors dominating the market; 10-12 companies are half the S&P 2:10 – "The Gambler": leveraged ETFs and speculation in the billions 3:16 – How leveraged ETFs amplify volatility 4:25 – A market high that "sticks for a while" coming in the next 6-12 months 5:41 – Risk/reward has flipped: 6-8% upside vs. 25% downside 6:38 – A generational bear market could mean a 40-45% correction 8:04 – Investor complacency: 75% of financial assets in stocks, an all-time high 9:26 – Oxbow's positioning: ~60/40 stocks and short-term treasuries 11:04 – The bond market: a possible trade in long-dated treasuries, but not worth the risk 12:19 – Cooler CPI and why inflation could fall further on oil prices 13:36 – What oil industry insiders are saying about drilling and cash flows 14:54 – Everyone's bearish on oil — Ted sees $100+ within 18 months 16:26 – What Ted's buying: Northern Oil & Gas, Kimbell Royalty, Antero, NESR 19:22 – Gold miners cheap after 35-40% correction; Agnico Eagle is Oxbow's top holding 21:09 – Momentum players washing out of gold sets up the next move 22:45 – "Stick to Your Principles": valuation discipline and why pros abandon it 24:16 – Ted's own lesson: getting burned in the late-'70s oil boom 26:00 – The Intel example: sold in '99, took 26 years to hit a new high 27:50 – Why hot IPOs disappoint (SpaceX down 30% from IPO) 29:27 – The boomer risk: over-70s own a third of all stocks 32:04 – Biggest risk: unsustainable government debt and interest costs 33:33 – Why Ted is optimistic about a downturn: liquidity to buy the sale

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Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Information

  • Creator
    Julia La Roche
  • Years Active
    2022 - 2026
  • Episodes
    399
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Julia La Roche
  • Show Website
    The Julia La Roche Show

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