Deep Dive Central Asia

Miras Uteuliev

Deep Dive Central Asia breaks down the forces reshaping Uzbekistan and the wider Central Asian economy. Each weekly/monthly episode delivers fast, fact-driven analysis on macro trends, capital flows, regulatory shifts, and sector dynamics, from fintech and energy to logistics, mining, and state-owned enterprise reform. The focus is simple: what’s changing, why it matters, and how investors should respond. With data-led insights on fiscal policy, M&A, privatization, and market-entry risks, Deep Dive Central Asia gives decision-makers a clear read on one of the world’s most rapidly evolving economic corridors. If you follow emerging markets, sovereign strategy, or regional dealmaking, this is your quick, high-signal briefing.

Episodes

  1. Kazakhstan's Investor Guide

    09/12/2025

    Kazakhstan's Investor Guide

    This episode examines Kazakhstan's 2024 investment landscape through the official Investor's Guide published by the Republic of Kazakhstan. We analyze how Central Asia's largest economy is leveraging structural reforms, natural resource advantages, and strategic geography to position itself as the region's primary destination for institutional capital. The guide reveals Kazakhstan's core value proposition: a $264 billion economy with investment-grade ratings, the world's largest uranium producer, and English common law framework through the Astana International Financial Centre. We explore targeted incentive regimes—zero corporate tax in Special Economic Zones and 55+ double taxation treaties—designed to attract FDI across mining, logistics, manufacturing, and renewables. Key themes include Kazakhstan's Trans-Caspian corridor linking China and Europe, critical minerals endowment amid energy transition, and human capital infrastructure with 21 internationally ranked universities. The guide outlines sector opportunities in uranium processing, rare earth extraction, agricultural modernization, and green hydrogen, while detailing investment protection mechanisms. We address implementation challenges: above-target inflation, hydrocarbon dependency, and translating policy into bankable projects. The analysis covers geographic clusters—from Almaty's financial hub to Atyrau's energy corridor—providing institutional investors a framework for evaluating political stability, currency risk, and regulatory predictability in a frontier market.

    10 min
  2. Uzum Bank: Central Asia's Digital Banking Revolution

    31/08/2025

    Uzum Bank: Central Asia's Digital Banking Revolution

    In this episode, we explore how Uzbekistan's first unicorn is transforming financial services across Central Asia through an integrated digital ecosystem approach. Key Discussion Points: The Uzbekistan Opportunity - With 37 million people (60% under 30), 87% internet penetration, but 40% financially excluded, Uzbekistan presents a massive fintech opportunity. GDP growth of 6.5% and government support for digital transformation create favorable conditions. Ecosystem Integration Model - Uzum combines e-commerce (Uzum Market), delivery (Uzum Tezkor), and banking (Uzum Bank) in a unified platform. Over 48% of marketplace purchases use their BNPL solution, while 25% of delivery volume flows through the marketplace app, demonstrating powerful network effects. Banking Innovation - Uzum Bank launched Uzbekistan's first embedded credit debit card in August 2024, issuing 2+ million cards by H1 2025. The bank captures 13% of online payments market through 100% digital operations supported by 1,500+ physical pickup points across 450 locations. Impressive Metrics - $6.5B total payment volume (2023), 17 million monthly users (half of adult population), $200M unsecured lending volume (Q1 2025) growing 3.4x year-over-year. All products are Sharia-compliant, appealing to 85% of the population. Global Investment Interest - Achieved unicorn status in March 2024 ($1.16B valuation), then raised $70M in August 2025 led by Tencent and VR Capital, reaching $1.5B valuation. Plans $250-300M Series B in H1 2026. Strategic Expansion - September 2025 launches include deposit products, long-term credit facilities, and international merchant integration from China and Turkey. Expected 10-15% cross-border activity. Regional Impact - As Central Asia's first unicorn, Uzum demonstrates emerging market fintech potential and East-West capital convergence. The hybrid digital-physical model addresses infrastructure challenges common across the region.

    12 min
  3. Uzbekistan's Climate Transition: Development, Resilience, and Green Growth

    08/08/2025

    Uzbekistan's Climate Transition: Development, Resilience, and Green Growth

    In this episode of Deep Dive Central Asia, we analyze the World Bank Group's Country Climate and Development Report on Uzbekistan. We explore how Uzbekistan’s ambitious development goals are intertwined with its climate challenges, and what this means for investors. Key Takeaways: A Growing Economy at Risk: Uzbekistan's economy, already Central Asia's most populous, is projected to grow to more than 50 million people by 2050. However, without climate action, the economy could be 10% smaller by 2050. Air pollution alone costs the country 6.5% of its GDP annually.Decarbonization as Opportunity: The energy sector is responsible for 74% of the country's GHG emissions. The report’s Net Zero 2060 scenario shows a pathway to decarbonization where domestic renewables could provide 70% of the energy supply by 2060. This transition requires a massive investment of $341 billion, with the private sector expected to play a major role.High-Return Adaptation: Climate adaptation measures, particularly in water and agriculture, offer a "triple dividend," with benefits estimated to be two to three times higher than the costs. Modernizing irrigation and drainage systems is a key investment area, with needs estimated at $6 billion through 2030.Pivotal Role of the Private Sector: Uzbekistan's private sector is pivotal to this transition. The report indicates a strong latent demand for green investments, with nearly 90% of firms having already made some form of green investment by 2019.Navigating the Risks: We discuss critical risks for investors, including the plan to remove energy subsidies, which accounted for 6.6% of GDP in 2020. We also highlight the banking sector's growing exposure to transition risk, as 40-50% of bank lending was in high-emission sectors by the end of 2022.Listen to the full episode for a deep dive into the numbers and a detailed analysis of the opportunities and challenges.

    16 min

About

Deep Dive Central Asia breaks down the forces reshaping Uzbekistan and the wider Central Asian economy. Each weekly/monthly episode delivers fast, fact-driven analysis on macro trends, capital flows, regulatory shifts, and sector dynamics, from fintech and energy to logistics, mining, and state-owned enterprise reform. The focus is simple: what’s changing, why it matters, and how investors should respond. With data-led insights on fiscal policy, M&A, privatization, and market-entry risks, Deep Dive Central Asia gives decision-makers a clear read on one of the world’s most rapidly evolving economic corridors. If you follow emerging markets, sovereign strategy, or regional dealmaking, this is your quick, high-signal briefing.