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Dan Bowyer & Mads Jensen - SuperSeed
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This week's happenings in startup and investing land. Getting underneath VC, and discussing how to better support the European startup eco-system. Every week we share what's been on our mind and get under the skin of VC, investing, startups and founder psychology. From the team behind SuperSeed who invest in technical teams solving difficult business problems. The network is run on LinkedIn so join me there - https://www.linkedin.com/in/danbowyer/With full interview audio and video uploaded to all major outlets. Love to hear from you - dan@superseed.com 

  1. 20/12/2025

    2025 Christmas Special - It’s a Wrap!

    With European VCs Lomax, Mads, Andrew and Dan 2025 year-in-review for European tech: capital, unicorns, geopolitics, AI, health, defence, and space space spaaaace. 01:25 – European tech in numbers $45bn into European startups (flat vs 2023–24, still ~½ of 2021 peak).28 new unicorns in 2025 (up from 14 in 2024).US dominates: ~$250bn private tech funding.VC fundraising still tight (~$10bn into European funds).Exits are back: Wiz–Google, Klarna IPO, SMG IPO.04:16 – 2025 in one sentence Dan: “Extreme volatility.”Lomax: “The final nail in globalisation.”Mads: “China became a true peer to the US.”Andrew: “Shipping fast beat gold-plated tech.”05:49 – Most exciting tech moments Mads: Claude Code, Chinese open-source AI, ASML–Mistral deal.Lomax: Wiz’s $32bn cash exit.Andrew: 6G moves from lab to real specs.08:39 – Darwin Awards (biggest screw-ups) Dan: Meta / Zuckerberg.Lomax: The entire EU institutional stack.Mads: Europe exporting founders to the US (incentive failure).Andrew: Rachel Reeves & UK growth policy.11:59 – What smart people got wrong Mads: GPU bans didn’t stop China—backfired.Lomax: AI bubble didn’t burst.Dan: Investors piling blindly into defence.Andrew: LLMs are “dial-up,” not the endgame.16:42 – Why 2025 was a good year Europe got a massive wake-up call (Dan).4 new European decacorns (Lomax).Founders kept building despite chaos (Mads).VC rediscovered deep tech & hardware (Andrew).21:23 – Geopolitics: a less naive world Globalisation fragmenting into blocs.Trust replaced by “trust but verify.”Sovereignty = opportunity for European founders (AI, defence, energy).34:30 – AI Corner: the year AI got real DeepSeek shock wipes ~$600bn off Nvidia (Jan).Claude Code: $1bn ARR in ~6 months.Google Gemini comeback beats rivals on benchmarks.China dominates open-source AI.Rise of VLAs (Vision-Language-Action models) → physical AI, robotics.Big question for 2026: “Are we the horses?”47:44 – Health & bio highlights GLP-1s everywhere: diabetes → cardio, kidney, neuro.Sales ~$62bn, heading toward $120bn+.Preventative health clinics scale (Function, Neko).Biotech rebounds; AI-designed drugs hit Phase 2.Psychedelics back: AbbVie deal, mental health momentum.56:51 – Defence & space Modern warfare now rewards fast shipping founders.Global launch cadence: every ~1.5 days.Space shifts from experimentation → permanent infrastructure.Blue Origin finally launches New Glenn; SpaceX eyes Mars (again).

    1h 3m

  2. 13/12/2025

    Why Company Sovereignty Matters - China's $1trn Surplus Flood Zone - European Punching

    Upside is a weekly pod that looks at the global news headlines and works out what really matters for European tech, venture, startups and investing. With European VCs - Lomax Ward, Dan Bowyer and Mads Jensen What’s on the docket this week: •SpaceX mega-raise / IPO noise: “what are you really buying?” •“Europe’s euro success”: North–South polarity flipping •China’s $1T+ goods trade surplus + what it means for Europe •US defence spend reality check •AI corner: chips, models, and AI bubble chatter 00:44 — Is DeepMind a “UK business”? 02:07 — Sovereignty is back baby! •In defence / strategic sectors, cap table sovereignty now affects outcomes. •Mentioned: UK rules requiring government consent in certain sectors (context: national security screening). 03:18 — DeepMind × UK DSIT partnership •New partnership + UK research lab expansion; tied to the AI Security Institute and public services. 06:20 — AI tutor moment (education-focused Gemini) •Vision: curriculum-grounded AI tutor as a once-in-a-generation lever for education. 08:56 — SpaceX: IPO in 2026? Raise ~ $30B? Valuation talk: $1.5T •Why IPO now if private markets still open? Answer: scale + capital needs + timing. ◦Starlink: fast-growing, high-margin connectivity “golden goose” 14:18 — The “rest of the valuation”: orbital data centres thesis •Speculative upside: compute in orbit (solar intensity, cooling, vacuum data transmission). •Reality check: today’s revenue is tiny; power + mass constraints are brutal. •Europe lens: founder talent often needs the US ecosystem to build at this frontier. 20:02 — Europe gets hit from both sides: US + China •US signals Western Europe is lower priority; more warmth to Central/Eastern Europe (per discussion). •China’s exports keep powering ahead; tariffs leak via third-country routing. 25:45 — Musk vs EU + the single-market problem •Musk lobs political grenades after X/EU regulatory action (context: DSA). •Core structural issue raised: no true EU single market in financial services → higher friction + lost productivity. 29:17 — Defence spending •Warning to VCs: commitments don’t equal budgets landing now. •Startup mismatch: defence procurement cycles vs 18–24 month funding cadence. 32:19 — AI corner: “bubble” talk + positioning •Institutions trimming exposure at the margin, but not fleeing. •View expressed: still upside runway, despite concentration and risk-off hedging. 33:44 — Europe W: Mistral open-sources DevStral 2 (coding model) •Narrative: Europe “back in the open-source game.” •Contrast: Meta reportedly leaning toward a closed model strategy (“Avocado” mentioned). 35:23 — Chips geopolitics: Nvidia H200s, China domestic ramp •Thesis: export controls accelerate Chinese domestic chip ecosystems. •Mentions: Huawei Ascend; Moore Threads momentum (plus broader “self-reliance” logic). 38:18 — Deal of the week: Unconventional AI — $475M seed

    44 min

  3. 06/12/2025

    Europe’s Comeback - Brexit 2.0 - Another ‘Code Red’ & Roll Up Roll Ups

    Upside #69 - For the real news behind the headlines affecting European venture, startups and investing. Every week Mads, Lomax, Andrew and myself (Dan) get together and chat. Bending Spoons 01:27 Berkshire-like roll-up; mostly debt-funded; big integration/tech-debt execution risk. 3:30 “US→Italy arbitrage”—cut expensive US costs, rebuild with top Italian talent + high-efficiency culture; cash-cow ops; high employee satisfaction. 05:13 Success likely hinges on better distribution/ops than previous owners. Brexit + Europe’s challenges 07:01 “trade intensity” vs G7—UK uniquely diverging down since 2019; services don’t offset goods loss. 09:20 Labour red lines may shift; customs union helps goods but politically messy (standards). 11:02 IKEA label anecdote → regulatory complexity. 12:30 VW/Europe: China competition + governance/union constraints; Europe slow to reform; supply-chain ripple risks. 23:00 Ecosystem fix: more R&D, talent/immigration, cut red tape, govt as buyer; biggest issue = late-stage capital/pensions. AI Corner 32:20 OpenAI “code red” on Google; distribution battle; OpenAI focusing on product vs ads/monetisation. 36:03 Winners = product + distribution + cost at scale (Google infra/TPUs advantage). 39:03 Anthropic IPO rumours (2026) debated: access to bigger pools vs “top of cycle” cynicism. Deal of the week 41:54 Black Forest Labs — $300m at $3.25bn; image-model leader; strong ARR rumoured. 43:13 ICEYE — €200m at ~€2.5bn; SAR satellites; defence demand. 44:05 Expedition Growth Capital fundraise — €323m. 44:23 Neurocore — ~$2.5m; platform tooling for robotics ML teams.

    46 min

  4. 29/11/2025

    God AI - A German Ecosystem Deepdive - Part Time VCs - Google Hot Or Not?

    Upside #68 w/ Robin Haak (Robin Capital), Lomax (Outsized), Mads and Dan (SuperSeed). Topics: Germany’s slowdown • Social media bans • UK budget • Solo GPs • N26 • Europe vs Big Tech • AI Corner 01:21 – Robin’s Background 100+ investments, 8 unicorns. Co-founded SmartRecruiters → sold to SAP ($100M ARR). Former GP at Revaya (€600M AUM). Now building a 50-year solo GP franchise. 03:58 – Social Media Ban for Under-16s Mads: EU Parliament pushes advisory resolution; strong evidence social media harms teen mental health, especially girls. 06:39 – US Says “Go Easy on Big Tech” Lomax: US Commerce voices warn EU that tech regulation ties into trade/tariff negotiations. Don’t conflate antitrust with child safety—two different battles. 10:00 – UK Budget Improved EMI stock options - More flexible EIS / VCT rules. Nice to hear a Chancellor talk about startups & innovation. 12:17 – EU Space Surveillance ESA launches its first military space programme (€1B). Far behind the US, but a step toward defence autonomy. 13:19 – N26 Troubles Regulatory caps slowed growth for years, BaFin repeatedly intervened. Leadership now reshuffling. Big question: Would N26 be Revolut-sized if founded outside Germany? 18:49 – German Economy Reality Check GDP still below 2019 levels. Insolvencies highest in a decade. Restaurants down 20–40%. Years of underinvestment in tech, infrastructure, energy. Early nuclear shutdown = higher energy costs, fallback to coal. 25:04 – Why No Nuclear Return? Public wants it (~75%). Politics block it; ideology > pragmatism. 27:07 – German Decline Impact on Startups ESOP improved (still heavy tax). Bureaucracy is brutal: notaries, translations, delays. Many founders incorporate Delaware C-Corp + German GmbH. Solo GP / Part-Time VC Trend 34:21 – The Movement US led the way: Elad Gil, Auren, Buckley. Three types: Lifelong solo GPs. Solo-to-multi-GP founders. Part-time solo GPs (e.g., 11 Labs’ Carlos Reiner). It works at $15–30M scale; Fund II usually becomes full-time. 40:10 – OpenAI, Google & Anthropic OpenAI may need $200B+ by 2030. Google’s Gemini 3 beating OpenAI on many benchmarks. Monetisation gap: only ~5% of ChatGPT users pay. Warren Buffett buying Google is a signal? 44:57 – The Scary Bit: God-AI Robin cites Eric Schmidt: If an adversary builds god-AI first, “we might have to bomb it.”

    50 min

  5. 22/11/2025

    We Get Slush’d - Germany Gets Space’d - As TPU’s Crush

    This week in Upside #67 Mads returns from Slush with 24 one-to-ones under his belt and a head full of insights. Dan and Lomax dig into Germany’s €35B space strategy, the surprising data behind immigrant-founded unicorns, and Europe’s defence-IPO boom. They break down Vinted’s huge secondary, the EU’s attempt to kill cookie banners, and the UK’s sudden wave of AI investment initiatives. In AI Corner: why 70% of AI startups now ship on open-source models, Google’s new TPU-trained Gemini 3, and another blowout quarter from Nvidia. Plus: Deal of the Week — Voize, the AI tool transforming nursing-home documentation. 03:15 — Slush Deep Dive Mads on Helsinki’s neon-lit founder festival, matchmaking tables, and why Slush still beats Web Summit. 07:45 — Germany’s €35B Space Strategy Why Berlin is going big on space-as-defence — and whether Europe can ever compete at scale. 12:10 — Immigrant Founders Powerhouse The surprising stats: 50–90% of US unicorn founders are immigrants; half of the UK’s fastest-growing companies too. 26:10 — Cookies Out, AI Regulation Rolled Back The EU’s Digital Omnibus: fewer cookie banners, looser GDPR for AI training, and a major regulatory U-turn. 46:40 — AI Corner: TPUs vs GPUs & Open Source Wins 70% of startups using open-source LLMs; Google’s TPU-trained Gemini 3 beats benchmarks; Nvidia still sold out through 2026.

    47 min

  6. 15/11/2025

    Tech Sovereignty And Becoming Full Stack Nations

    Each week a small bunch of us try and makes sense of the latest news affecting European venture.  Upside #66 - The theme this week is back to tech sovereignty, what that really means, what’s trade, what’s security - and ultimately will we all become full stack nations? 01:04 – UK exit tax: what it was and why it was dropped The mooted UK “exit tax” (tax on unrealised gains when leaving the country), why it would be disastrous for founders, political “pitch-rolling” before budgets, and Tom Blomfield’s alternative idea of taxing gains accrued while in the UK. 08:17 – State of AI (McKinsey / QuantumBlack report) Quick take on enterprise AI: almost every large org says it’s using AI, mostly for agentic/workflow use cases, but only ~1% report mature deployment or meaningful bottom-line impact, implying a long runway but slower-than-hyped progress. 09:54 – Nexperia & Europe’s chip vulnerability Deep dive into Nexperia’s role in Europe’s mid-tech auto chips, EU–China tensions, how wafers are made in Europe but packaged in China, and what that reveals about the fragility of the European automotive supply chain. 13:15 – Ripping out Huawei/ZTE from 5G Discussion of the EU’s move to give legal force to removing Chinese vendors from 5G infrastructure, the huge retrofit costs for telcos (esp. German operators), and whether this is driven by trade, security, or both. 16:18 – Einride SPAC & Palantir / Alex Karp Einride’s US SPAC at a $1.8B valuation vs the Nikola fiasco; Palantir’s soaring stock, Alex Karp’s persona and “word salad” style, his emphasis on privacy-centric data architectures for governments, and the tension between admiration for serious infra and discomfort with founder-power. 23:06 – AI market wobble & Michael Burry’s bearish case The recent pull-back in Mag7/AI names (esp. Nvidia), and whether it’s a blip or bubble-pop; Burry’s big short on hyperscalers and AI plays, and his history as an early Cassandra of the GFC. 23:52 – Chinese open-source models & hyperscaler accounting games How Chinese open-source models (e.g. Kimi K2) are catching frontier labs and threatening closed-source economics, plus Burry’s argument that hyperscalers are overstating profits by stretching GPU lifetimes (4→6 years) and front-loading capex based on optimistic AI revenue expectations. 33:28 – Tech sovereignty, AI-powered cyber attacks & kill switches Anthropic’s disclosure of LLM-assisted cyber attacks using Claude Code via social engineering; concerns over remote kill switches in Chinese-made buses in UK/Scandi fleets; broader questions about dependence on Chinese vendors and the push for “full-stack” sovereignty. 41:45 – De-globalisation & the cost of going ‘full stack’ Debate over whether every region trying to do everything domestically is sustainable; loss of cheap-labour-driven low inflation, need for critical minerals and energy at home, and how much poorer or safer societies might become under techno-sovereignty. 47:49 – Deals of the Week: BillionToOne and Gamma BillionToOne’s ~$4.5–5B IPO (YC 2017; strong European VC participation); Pfizer’s $10B acquisition of GLP-1 player Metsera and what it signals for biotech; Gamma’s $68M Series B at a $2.1B valuation as a potential disruptor of the traditional Office/Slides stack.

    53 min

  7. 08/11/2025

    A Baltic Boom, Matt Clifford Rouses, A Tale Of Two Quants

    Upside Ep #65 - A Baltic Boom, Matt Clifford Rouses, A Tale Of Two Quants A weekly show that unpacks the shenanigans affecting European venture. Dan (host), Mads, Lomax, Special Guest: Jone (Yo neh) — Managing Partner, First Pick (Lithuania) 3:26 — Pre-seed vs Seed in the Baltics •Why pre-seed fits: seed still feels early; when companies inflect, foreign funds out-gun local check sizes. Funds in region typically €10–€100M AUM, so Series A+ is handed off. 05:39 — Foreign funds’ interest & “guarding the land” •Active sharing with bigger EU funds; Creandum dinner takeaway: Baltics are insanely good at distribution; product/elite-tech depth thinner than popular myth, but revenue ramps fast. 07:29 — Baltic bootstrapping culture •Many regional champions are bootstrapped (e.g., Hostinger, Kilo Health, NordVPN/Tesonet group influence). Venture is used sparingly; winning a VC spot is hard as rounds are scarce/oversubscribed. 10:49 — Defence: Rheinmetall–Lithuania invests €300m •Facts: €300M JV; Baisogala site; ~340 ha footprint; ~150 jobs; ground-breaking 4 Nov 2025; ops start 2026 with ramp in 2027. •Why Lithuania? Panel view: incentives, speed, and financing (tax holidays, fast-track planning, heavy local co-funding) plus NATO signaling despite border-risk optics. 15:15 — Matt Clifford @ LFG: “Permissionlessness” & the stagnation decade •Vibe check from the room: energising, pro-growth, anti-bureaucracy. •Core claim discussed: ~17 years of UK productivity stagnation → lost income per head; call to cut red tape and celebrate building. •Reflexive critique: does it resonate beyond London; EF’s Delaware flips vs UK nation-building narrative tension. 29:26 — Quantum UK - Can we? •FT-sparked chat on UK/EU quantum software (e.g., Phasecraft, Riverlane) and hardware roots (PsiQuantum, Quantinuum) with UK lineage; big valuations, long road to revenue. 32:09 — Quants (trading): Yes we can! •UK bright spot: quant trading still world-class; XTX building a ~25k-GPU cluster (context: new German “AI factory” cited at ~10k GPUs). •Talent gravity: CS/math grads pulled into quant comp; debate on startup talent crowd-out vs recycling (e.g., XTX backing AI seeds). 39:57 — AI Corner •Funding loops & hyperscaler deals: OpenAI multi-year cloud commits; when is it circular vs normal vendor financing? Panel splits hairs on cash vs credits and market discipline. •CALM (China): continuous autoregressive idea = interesting/iterative step, not a “DeepSeek moment.” •OpenAI & legal: limiting in-app legal advice framed as product direction/lead-gen potential for pros. •Nvidia + Deutsche Telekom: ~€1.2B / ~10k GPUs in Germany—welcomed, but scale gap vs US mega-centres. •Nebius “Token Factory”: EU-HQ’d “neo-cloud” (Yandex spin-out context) aggregating low-cost OS models; compelling for cost-sensitive workloads if 95–99% “good enough.” (Regional perception note: in Baltics it’s still seen as “Russian-adjacent”, brand kept intentionally low-key.) 53:53 — Deal(s) of the Week) •Nexus AI (LT) — $8M on deck from Index, followed swiftly by Avantar/Creandum; Tesonet/NordVPN founders; routing/LLM infra for companies; signalling win for Vilnius scene. (Raised on deck, then followed up quickly.) •Poolside (FR/US) — Rumoured $2B round; Nvidia up to $1B; valuation jump $3B → $12B; deeper code-gen/automation focus; meaningful transatlantic footprint.

    1h 1m

  8. 01/11/2025

    Should You Raise Right Now? Should Govts Buy Stocks? Should NVIDIA Have Bought Nokia?

    The pod that unpacks the real news behind the clickbait affecting European venture. Hosts: Dan, Mads, Lomax, Andrew 02:41 — Bending Spoons deep dive Debt-fuelled roll-up, “Berkshire of consumer apps” analogy; Ukrainian peer Gentek noted; why more post-COVID roll-ups didn’t materialise. 04:34 — US debt vs Europe risk Market’s view on capital allocation/dynamism; Decacorns vs unicorns; power-law returns reinforce Botha’s point. 06:01 — “VC isn’t an asset class” debate Power-law concentration, PR angle, and incentives; media takeaways. 07:31 — Euro VC vibes Lakestar & optics; ecosystem still 5× over decade despite headlines. 08:30 — Feature: Should governments buy stocks? Khosla’s 10% stake in all public companies to offset AI/AGI shocks: Pros: Alignment with growth; potential UBI funding; sovereign-wealth-style upside.Cons: Partial nationalisation optics, execution complexity, tying state finances tighter to market swings.Middle paths: SWF/index recycling of taxes; robot/compute taxation; focus on efficient government vs expropriation.17:45 — Back-of-envelope math US equities ~$60T → 10% ≈ $6T; even 10% yield wouldn’t cover current US interest bill; cautions on bull-market assumptions. 19:03 — UK Budget preview (26 Nov) Backdrop: softer productivity, fiscal squeeze. Likely: CGT/inheritance tweaks, mansion tax; maybe EMI/startup relief refinements.Founder advice: avoid doom loop—head down and build; some may move to US, less so Dubai.22:25 — Should founders raise now (pre-correction)? Consensus: If you can raise on decent terms, extend runway; always-be-raising (selectively).Don’t panic or over-dilute; keep shipping.If no PMF, fix product/positioning before chasing capital.29:02 — AI Corner NVIDIA at $5T: Hyperscalers’ capex still ramping; huge backlog; dominance but margins likely compress with competition/custom silicon.Nokia stake: Smart edge/5G–6G positioning; GPUs closer to towers for network optimisation & edge AI.OpenAI recap: For-profit structure finalised; Microsoft looks like the clearest public proxy (exclusivities, licenses).Meta’s mixed moment & layoffs framed more as performance-management cycles than AI doom.42:58 — Deals of the Week Sales Patriot (Warsaw): €4.2m to modernise defence procurement; aim to be system of record.Legora (legal AI, Stockholm): $150m at $1.8B, ~5 months after Series B.Robin AI: Sale process after $70m raised—cautionary tale on GTM/scale.Bending Spoons ↔ AOL/Vimeo: More roll-up momentum.Synthesia: $200m at $4B; reportedly turned down a $3B Adobe offer—go-for-growth stance.45:50 — UK quantum spotlight QFX round (Paul Graham involved); UK’s deep quantum bench (PsiQuantum/Quantinuum roots; Oxford Ionics ~$1B sale to IonQ). Challenge: scaling while keeping firms in the UK.

    49 min
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About

This week's happenings in startup and investing land. Getting underneath VC, and discussing how to better support the European startup eco-system. Every week we share what's been on our mind and get under the skin of VC, investing, startups and founder psychology. From the team behind SuperSeed who invest in technical teams solving difficult business problems. The network is run on LinkedIn so join me there - https://www.linkedin.com/in/danbowyer/With full interview audio and video uploaded to all major outlets. Love to hear from you - dan@superseed.com 

Information

  • Creator
    Dan Bowyer & Mads Jensen - SuperSeed
  • Years Active
    2022 - 2025
  • Episodes
    72
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2025 Upside
  • Show Website
    Upside

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