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Dan Bowyer & Mads Jensen - SuperSeed
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This week's happenings in startup and investing land. Getting underneath VC, and discussing how to better support the European startup eco-system. Every week we share what's been on our mind and get under the skin of VC, investing, startups and founder psychology. From the team behind SuperSeed who invest in technical teams solving difficult business problems. The network is run on LinkedIn so join me there - https://www.linkedin.com/in/danbowyer/With full interview audio and video uploaded to all major outlets. Love to hear from you - dan@superseed.com 

  1. 6 DAYS AGO

    Your AI Intern With Root Access - Masa Goes Massive - Europe's Midlife Crisis

    00:59 — Saudi surprises, NEOM shrinks, Vision 2030 = Europe takes notes. 02:58 — Europe: zero vibes, zero mission. 03:55 — War bonds?! Saudi winter games postponed. Reality intrudes. 🤖 AI Corner 07:32 — Clawdbot → Moltbot now OpenClaw?! AI intern… with admin rights. 09:19 — Early wins: negotiates car deals, plans diets, orders Tesco shops. 10:38 — Early fear: unconstrained agents + inbox access = mild terror. 12:22 — It wakes itself up and takes action. Cool. Also horrifying. 13:17 — Security stories emerge. Nobody gives it their bank login (yet). 💰 AI Mega-Rounds 14:19 — SoftBank doubles down on OpenAI. Masa swings hard. Again. 16:06 — Anthropic: hotter growth, $20bn round chatter, IPO whispers. 16:50 — OpenAI ads incoming. Users threaten to… switch? Maybe. 🧠 China Swarms 18:01 — Moonshot drops “Swarm” models: 100 agents, one brain. 19:34 — Parallel thinking = faster, not cheaper. Tokens go brrrr. 20:55 — Open source as geopolitical side-eye. 📊 Earnings Season 21:40 — ASML prints money: AI capex not slowing, China still ~20%. 23:05 — Memory beats logic: HBM crunch, chipmakers fully booked. 25:38 — Meta vs Microsoft: ads + AI good, capex + slowing Azure bad. 26:44 — Tesla: sales, “physical AI” story saves the stock. 30:22 — Klarna –30%: credit nerves. Everyone shrugs. 🇪🇺 Europe, Again 32:19 — “United States of Europe?” Telegraph panics. Reality unimpressed. 35:15 — Europe only moves when scared enough. Not there yet. 39:35 — Integration: go wide, go deep, or argue forever. 43:05 — Starmer in China: finance, vibes, low expectations. 43:21 — EU–India deal > UK deals. Market size still matters. 🪖 Defence 45:49 — Europe rearms: drones, satellites, ISR, startups rejoice. 51:21 — US spends ~$900bn; Europe debates what it actually needs. 53:09 — Bull case: Ukraine = Europe’s defence tech lab. 📱 Society 54:23 — Social media bans for kids: messy science, real concern. 56:47 — US sues, EU regulates. Meta lawyers busy. 59:21 — Design-choice lawsuits = tobacco vibes. 🧾 Deals 1:01:34 — UK plans to train 10m people in AI. Ambitious. Necessary. 1:03:12 — Deal of the Week: Sword Health buys Kaia for $285m.  1:04:24 — Synthesia hits ~$4bn. Regret levels spike. 1:04:45 — Wrap. Brains emptied. See you next week.

    1h 5m

  2. 24 JAN

    Doh Davos, Data Centre Downsides, No To Delaware, Dead SaaS & Defence IPOs

    01:35–10:24 — UK data centres: blocked… but a way through A £1bn London-area data-centre project gets halted after a planning/EIA mess-up → delays of 9–12+ months, potentially worse. The twist: data centres are being upgraded to “nationally significant infrastructure,” enabling central-government fast-track (DCO route) instead of local NIMBY planning. Still: EIAs + judicial reviews can keep slowing everything down. Core complaint: the system keeps “deciding whether to build” after we’ve already decided we must. 10:24–20:01 — Davos: in a fractured world, can middle powers go solo? Big takeaway: the old global order isn’t coming back. Middle powers doing bilateral deals risk being picked off one-by-one. The only viable strategy is bigger blocs + coordination. On AI/robotics: Europe shouldn’t obsess over winning foundation models; the opportunity is physical AI (robotics, manufacturing, automation) layered onto Europe’s engineering base—if politics and fragmentation don’t smother it. 20:01–22:22 — AI vs jobs: don’t overkill the headline Entry-level postings are down since early 2023, but the consensus here is: macro + rates explain most of it. AI will reshuffle work (especially junior/clerical tasks), but mass unemployment isn’t the base case. 22:22–27:46 — EU Inc / “28th regime”: real momentum and real resistance EU Inc aims to make a pan-EU startup entity that’s fast/cheap to set up (48 hours, no minimum capital), plus simpler ESOPs (ideally tax deferred until liquidity). The fight now: Regulation vs Directive Regulation = uniform + immediate, but needs unanimityDirective = easier, but invites delay + fragmentationExpect pushback framed around labour standards and “race-to-the-bottom” fears. 27:46–34:51 — Has China already won AI? Reframe “winning”: it’s not god-like AI dominance; it’s economic + military power with AI as a lever. Models converge fast, advantages erode, and the “months not years” gap matters. Europe’s real risk is strategic irrelevance unless it scales power: capital markets, energy, defence capacity, and political cohesion (with a nod to the UK needing to be onside). 34:51–39:30 — US science funding “collapse”: brutal in pockets, not total Big cuts and cancellations are real—especially in politically sensitive areas—but most US R&D is private sector, and defence-linked R&D keeps growing. Europe is trying to attract researchers, but this doesn’t yet look like a permanent talent migration. 39:30–43:13 — SaaS: dead? no? trapped? SaaS faces a fork: Mature into a cash machine (cut bloat, optimise margins), orBecome a “system of context” by embedding AI/agents deeplyWhy the pain: ZIRP-era bloat + expensive orgs + incentive traps.  Bright spot: incumbents with distribution are already monetising AI add-ons at meaningful ARR. 43:13–45:47 — Defence IPO era: the Overton window moved A blockbuster European defence IPO becomes the poster child for a broader trend: defence re-rated, ESG lines shifting, and a growing pipeline as European defence budgets rise for the next decade. 45:47–47:02 — Quick hits Billion-scale European fund raise gets a shout-out. More big AI deals bubbling. New fund launch focused on robotics/manufacturing, positioned as aligned with what Europe needs next.

    49 min

  3. 17 JAN

    Can EU Starlink? - The EU’s 25yr Mega Trade Deal - Anthropic's CoWork Kills It!

    BBC yeets kids shows onto YouTube, EU does a mega trade deal, Open Cosmos tries to be European-ish Starlink, Meta buys nuclear vibes, UK bins digital IDs (again), Anthropic’s “CoWork”, Grok vs governments, plus Deals of the Week. Basically: geopolitics, space, energy, AI, and British admin disintegration. (00:34) BBC on YouTube: “iPlayer walked so Netflix could run” Dan: YouTube is enormous; BBC is adapting for younger audiences (and maybe… survival mode).Mads: iPlayer was genuinely visionary; regulators stopped BBC going too commercial back then.Andrew: Stop geo-blocking. Just take my money. (“Not in your region” = crime.)(02:51) EU–Mercosur trade deal: 25 years, 700M people, farmers furious Biggest-ever EU trade deal: Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay. (03:30)Why now: EU wants options beyond US gridlock + China dependence.(06:07) Open Cosmos: “EU Starlink?” …Not quite, but it’s something Takeaway: not a consumer Starlink clone; more “secure, sovereign comms” for governments. (07:56–08:32)(08:32) Meta’s 20-year nuclear power deals: AI runs on electricity (and contracts) Hyperscalers locking in long-term nuclear PPAs in the US; Europe stuck with slower buildout, planning pain, and NIMBY boss fights.(10:12) UK drops digital IDs: “25 incompatible IDs is the national strategy” Mads: Digital ID is foundational (identity + access). Most OECD countries have it; UK is the holdout. (10:45–12:14)UK backlash feels emotional; we already have loads of IDs that don’t talk to each other.Cost debate: rollout ~£2bn-ish vs long-term fraud reduction. (13:33–13:48)(15:35) Anthropic CoWork: “built in 10 days… by Claude Code” CoWork: “Claude Code for knowledge workers” — chat UI + sandboxed VM. (19:31)It’s early/buggy, but the meta-point is wild: AI building AI products at startup speed. (18:17–18:34)(20:30) Yann LeCun “world models”: why LLMs aren’t the whole story LLMs can talk; they don’t understand physics.Four buckets: video prediction, interactive simulators (e.g. “move left/right”), physics engines, and latent world models (JEPA). (22:41–23:27)Robot “pick and place” success rate cited as a compelling signal for JEPA. (23:27–24:15)(28:13) Grok: sexualised imagery = policy grenade Group consensus: when it’s minors, “platform self-policing” isn’t cutting it.(32:19) JPM Health conference: biotech meets the LLM invasion Nvidia + Eli Lilly: $1B partnership for AI drug discovery. (33:28)Big pharma facing $200–$300B revenue going off-patent → likely acquisitions spree. (33:28–33:53)Torch acquisition: “unified medical memory” pulling from records/wearables/visits. (36:54–37:10)Cool paper alert: stroke triage via CT platform cuts transfer time by 64 minutes; “2M brain cells die per minute.” (38:57–39:25)(42:19) Deals of the Week — “capital markets therapy session” Quantinuum files confidentially for IPO; quantum + encryption randomness today, “R&D roadmap” tomorrow. (42:32–43:52)Aikido Security (Ghent) hits unicorn: $60M Series B led by DST. (46:41–47:05)Parloa (Germany, call centre automation): $350M Series D @ $3B, six months after Series C. (46:41–47:05)Equal1 (Ireland, UCD spinout): $60M for quantum servers in data centers. (47:20)Harmattan AI (France, drones): €200M Series B @ €1.4B, Dassault invested; supplying drones incl. UK Army contract mentions. (47:36–48:12)

    49 min

  4. 10 JAN

    The Biggest Tech Co. You’ve Never Heard Of - FTSE Beats S&P, Psychedelics Are Back & CES AI Corner

    Hosts: Dan Bowyer, Lomax Ward, Mads Jensen Episode summary This week we cover Trump’s Greenland rhetoric and the broader implications for NATO, European defence spending, and sovereignty. Then we dive into the tech and markets that (quietly) moved: Meta’s acquisition of Manus, Octopus/“Kraken” spinning out as a major energy-software player, Discord’s IPO momentum, Revolut’s Turkey expansion via license acquisition, and why UK pensions are underperforming (plus what reform could actually fix). We finish with a big CES-driven AI corner—Nvidia’s autonomous-driving stack “Alpamayo,” the China compute/memory bottleneck, AMD vs Nvidia software moats, Grok’s enormous fundraise, and why Claude Code is showing up even inside Google. Topics 00:37 OpenAI “Health ChatGPT” launches (not in Europe) — what’s the deal? 02:26 FDA signals faster AI regulation: “move at the speed of Silicon Valley” 08:10 Trump + Greenland: history, Thule, and where’s the grift? 11:29 Pax Americana cracks 16:10 France: ban social media under-15s 18:21 EU regulation vs US deregulation: wedge widens 21:06 Meta buying Manus 22:27 Kraken (Octopus) spinout: big UK tech hiding in plain sight 25:02 IPO watch: Discord momentum + how it monetises 26:15 Revolut → Turkey via FUPS: buying access and licenses globally 29:19 UK pensions: underperformance + pushback on forced private allocations 31:57 Why pensions underperform 39:09 German dentists pension lawsuit + “shrimp farm VC” cautionary tale 40:27 Markets: FTSE hits 10,000 + quietly outperforms S&P 43:15 Biotech rebound + psychedelics 47:02 CES 2026...  48:05 Nvidia’s “Alpamayo”: full autonomy stack + open models/data 50:34 Nvidia vertical apps vs chips: execution risk outside core semis 52:07 China + H200s: memory bottlenecks and geopolitics of compute supply 53:20 AMD vs Nvidia: the CUDA/software moat 54:35 Grok raises: $20B at $230B 56:44 Claude Code: adoption even inside Google 57:25 Deals of the week: Faculty exit to Accenture 59:47 Biographica raises to build next-gen crop tech Notable moments / quotables “The only people using cash or violence to negotiate are mobsters.” (12:32)“It’s super easy to get autonomy to 99%… the last 1% takes 10 years.” (48:52, referenced)“Much better to pay 2% to deliver 15% than 0.1% to deliver 1%.” (30:25)Deal of the week Lomax: Faculty reportedly sold to Accenture (UK AI/enterprise decision intelligence)Dan: Kraken spun out of Octopus Energy (energy metering + grid/flows platform)Mads: Biographica raises to build technology for next-gen, more resilient crops

    1h 1m

  5. 3 JAN

    10 Venture Predictions - The Picks & Nix For '26!

    Guests: Dan Bowyer, Mads Jensen, Lomax Ward and Dan Gray Part 1 — 2025 predictions: what hit, what missed? 02:59 — OpenAI “dethroned”: debate, but mostly “yes” 04:47 — China/Taiwan “decisive year”: mostly no 05:46 — Defence tech surge: yes 06:46 — Europe/UK tech sovereignty: yes-ish but hard to measure 07:25 — Space enabling tech keeps attracting capital: yes 07:30 — US recession H2 2025: nope 09:07 — Stock correction early 2025: correct-ish 09:45 — M&A rebounds: yes 10:24 — IPO window reopens: yes-ish --- Part 2 — 2026 predictions (with yardsticks) 11:29 — (1) Dan Gray: “European Re-industrialisation” Big industrial families + family offices start allocating more directly into innovation (seen around Munich/TUM). 13:11 — (2) Dan Bowyer: “Apple wins personal AI” Dan bets 2026 is Apple’s “Siri actually works” year—especially via on-device models + partnerships (Google mentioned). 16:35 — (3) Mads: “3 major tech IPOs” From this list: SpaceX, Databricks, Canva, Anduril, Anthropic — pick 3/5. Mads goes big on Anthropic growth + enterprise leadership. Dan Gray adds: IPOs cluster; post-IPO M&A often spikes; real test is 6–9 months later. 19:08 — (4) Lomax: “Biotech comes back from the dead” Biotech rally underway (XBI up hard off lows). 24:39 — (5) Dan Gray: “Politics kills the 28th regime” He doubts a single EU incorporation regime survives politics, but suggests a workaround: 28:51 — (6) Mads: “Chinese open-source AI hits 60% of downloads” Notes China open-source share ~44% by end of 2025 (per the conversation), and cites growing adoption of open-source models in startups. 30:11 — (7) Lomax: “Longevity clinics go from boutique → (somewhat) mainstream” Thesis: preventative, subscription-style health scales (Neko, Function Health examples). 33:31 — (8) Mads: “EU expands tariffs on Chinese goods beyond EVs” Europe stops pretending tariffs are morally evil, and starts protecting industrial base more aggressively (supply chain breadth and/or higher rates). 34:50 — (9) Mads: “No AGI in 2026” AGI definition mess continues. 40:19 — (10) Lomax: “Cyber becomes a clear and present threat” AI lowers cost of recon, phishing, persistence; cyber as statecraft sits below “war thresholds.” 43:14 — Bonus (Mads): Robotaxis Waymo keeps lead in the West (incl. London expansion/testing), Tesla makes progress but stays behind.

    47 min

  6. 20/12/2025

    2025 Christmas Special - It’s a Wrap!

    With European VCs Lomax, Mads, Andrew and Dan 2025 year-in-review for European tech: capital, unicorns, geopolitics, AI, health, defence, and space space spaaaace. 01:25 – European tech in numbers $45bn into European startups (flat vs 2023–24, still ~½ of 2021 peak).28 new unicorns in 2025 (up from 14 in 2024).US dominates: ~$250bn private tech funding.VC fundraising still tight (~$10bn into European funds).Exits are back: Wiz–Google, Klarna IPO, SMG IPO.04:16 – 2025 in one sentence Dan: “Extreme volatility.”Lomax: “The final nail in globalisation.”Mads: “China became a true peer to the US.”Andrew: “Shipping fast beat gold-plated tech.”05:49 – Most exciting tech moments Mads: Claude Code, Chinese open-source AI, ASML–Mistral deal.Lomax: Wiz’s $32bn cash exit.Andrew: 6G moves from lab to real specs.08:39 – Darwin Awards (biggest screw-ups) Dan: Meta / Zuckerberg.Lomax: The entire EU institutional stack.Mads: Europe exporting founders to the US (incentive failure).Andrew: Rachel Reeves & UK growth policy.11:59 – What smart people got wrong Mads: GPU bans didn’t stop China—backfired.Lomax: AI bubble didn’t burst.Dan: Investors piling blindly into defence.Andrew: LLMs are “dial-up,” not the endgame.16:42 – Why 2025 was a good year Europe got a massive wake-up call (Dan).4 new European decacorns (Lomax).Founders kept building despite chaos (Mads).VC rediscovered deep tech & hardware (Andrew).21:23 – Geopolitics: a less naive world Globalisation fragmenting into blocs.Trust replaced by “trust but verify.”Sovereignty = opportunity for European founders (AI, defence, energy).34:30 – AI Corner: the year AI got real DeepSeek shock wipes ~$600bn off Nvidia (Jan).Claude Code: $1bn ARR in ~6 months.Google Gemini comeback beats rivals on benchmarks.China dominates open-source AI.Rise of VLAs (Vision-Language-Action models) → physical AI, robotics.Big question for 2026: “Are we the horses?”47:44 – Health & bio highlights GLP-1s everywhere: diabetes → cardio, kidney, neuro.Sales ~$62bn, heading toward $120bn+.Preventative health clinics scale (Function, Neko).Biotech rebounds; AI-designed drugs hit Phase 2.Psychedelics back: AbbVie deal, mental health momentum.56:51 – Defence & space Modern warfare now rewards fast shipping founders.Global launch cadence: every ~1.5 days.Space shifts from experimentation → permanent infrastructure.Blue Origin finally launches New Glenn; SpaceX eyes Mars (again).

    1h 3m

  7. 13/12/2025

    Why Company Sovereignty Matters - China's $1trn Surplus Flood Zone - European Punching

    Upside is a weekly pod that looks at the global news headlines and works out what really matters for European tech, venture, startups and investing. With European VCs - Lomax Ward, Dan Bowyer and Mads Jensen What’s on the docket this week: •SpaceX mega-raise / IPO noise: “what are you really buying?” •“Europe’s euro success”: North–South polarity flipping •China’s $1T+ goods trade surplus + what it means for Europe •US defence spend reality check •AI corner: chips, models, and AI bubble chatter 00:44 — Is DeepMind a “UK business”? 02:07 — Sovereignty is back baby! •In defence / strategic sectors, cap table sovereignty now affects outcomes. •Mentioned: UK rules requiring government consent in certain sectors (context: national security screening). 03:18 — DeepMind × UK DSIT partnership •New partnership + UK research lab expansion; tied to the AI Security Institute and public services. 06:20 — AI tutor moment (education-focused Gemini) •Vision: curriculum-grounded AI tutor as a once-in-a-generation lever for education. 08:56 — SpaceX: IPO in 2026? Raise ~ $30B? Valuation talk: $1.5T •Why IPO now if private markets still open? Answer: scale + capital needs + timing. ◦Starlink: fast-growing, high-margin connectivity “golden goose” 14:18 — The “rest of the valuation”: orbital data centres thesis •Speculative upside: compute in orbit (solar intensity, cooling, vacuum data transmission). •Reality check: today’s revenue is tiny; power + mass constraints are brutal. •Europe lens: founder talent often needs the US ecosystem to build at this frontier. 20:02 — Europe gets hit from both sides: US + China •US signals Western Europe is lower priority; more warmth to Central/Eastern Europe (per discussion). •China’s exports keep powering ahead; tariffs leak via third-country routing. 25:45 — Musk vs EU + the single-market problem •Musk lobs political grenades after X/EU regulatory action (context: DSA). •Core structural issue raised: no true EU single market in financial services → higher friction + lost productivity. 29:17 — Defence spending •Warning to VCs: commitments don’t equal budgets landing now. •Startup mismatch: defence procurement cycles vs 18–24 month funding cadence. 32:19 — AI corner: “bubble” talk + positioning •Institutions trimming exposure at the margin, but not fleeing. •View expressed: still upside runway, despite concentration and risk-off hedging. 33:44 — Europe W: Mistral open-sources DevStral 2 (coding model) •Narrative: Europe “back in the open-source game.” •Contrast: Meta reportedly leaning toward a closed model strategy (“Avocado” mentioned). 35:23 — Chips geopolitics: Nvidia H200s, China domestic ramp •Thesis: export controls accelerate Chinese domestic chip ecosystems. •Mentions: Huawei Ascend; Moore Threads momentum (plus broader “self-reliance” logic). 38:18 — Deal of the week: Unconventional AI — $475M seed

    44 min

  8. 06/12/2025

    Europe’s Comeback - Brexit 2.0 - Another ‘Code Red’ & Roll Up Roll Ups

    Upside #69 - For the real news behind the headlines affecting European venture, startups and investing. Every week Mads, Lomax, Andrew and myself (Dan) get together and chat. Bending Spoons 01:27 Berkshire-like roll-up; mostly debt-funded; big integration/tech-debt execution risk. 3:30 “US→Italy arbitrage”—cut expensive US costs, rebuild with top Italian talent + high-efficiency culture; cash-cow ops; high employee satisfaction. 05:13 Success likely hinges on better distribution/ops than previous owners. Brexit + Europe’s challenges 07:01 “trade intensity” vs G7—UK uniquely diverging down since 2019; services don’t offset goods loss. 09:20 Labour red lines may shift; customs union helps goods but politically messy (standards). 11:02 IKEA label anecdote → regulatory complexity. 12:30 VW/Europe: China competition + governance/union constraints; Europe slow to reform; supply-chain ripple risks. 23:00 Ecosystem fix: more R&D, talent/immigration, cut red tape, govt as buyer; biggest issue = late-stage capital/pensions. AI Corner 32:20 OpenAI “code red” on Google; distribution battle; OpenAI focusing on product vs ads/monetisation. 36:03 Winners = product + distribution + cost at scale (Google infra/TPUs advantage). 39:03 Anthropic IPO rumours (2026) debated: access to bigger pools vs “top of cycle” cynicism. Deal of the week 41:54 Black Forest Labs — $300m at $3.25bn; image-model leader; strong ARR rumoured. 43:13 ICEYE — €200m at ~€2.5bn; SAR satellites; defence demand. 44:05 Expedition Growth Capital fundraise — €323m. 44:23 Neurocore — ~$2.5m; platform tooling for robotics ML teams.

    46 min
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About

This week's happenings in startup and investing land. Getting underneath VC, and discussing how to better support the European startup eco-system. Every week we share what's been on our mind and get under the skin of VC, investing, startups and founder psychology. From the team behind SuperSeed who invest in technical teams solving difficult business problems. The network is run on LinkedIn so join me there - https://www.linkedin.com/in/danbowyer/With full interview audio and video uploaded to all major outlets. Love to hear from you - dan@superseed.com 

Information

  • Creator
    Dan Bowyer & Mads Jensen - SuperSeed
  • Years Active
    2022 - 2026
  • Episodes
    77
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Upside
  • Show Website
    Upside

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