The Spillover

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How do critical international developments shape economic and financial markets worldwide? Each week, The Spillover examines the ripple effects of global events across policy, geopolitics, economics, finance, and technology. This podcast helps you better understand what’s happening, and why it matters to businesses, global markets, and the world.

3日前

How China Is Quietly Winning the Iran War Energy Crisis

Five months of war in Iran have completely reshaped energy markets. This week, the Baker Institute’s Kristian Coates Ulrichsen joins Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby to examine how conflict in the Strait of Hormuz exposed the fragility of the world's maritime chokepoints, and revealed China as the quiet winner of the crisis. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Fellow for the Middle East and codirector of the Middle East Energy Roundtable, Baker Institute Mentioned on the Episode: Kristian Coates Ulrichsen and Jim Krane, “Maritime Chokepoints and Risks to Global Shipping and Energy Security,” Baker Institute “China ‘Blockade Simulation’ Exposes $5 Trillion Global Danger,” Bloomberg “Crossroads of Commerce: How the Taiwan Strait Propels the Global Economy,” CSIS Spencer Kimball, “Oil in US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls Below 300 Million Barrels, Lowest Since 1983,” MSN “China Is Now the World’s Great Oil Power,” The Economist “The Middle East and Global Energy Markets,” IEA Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
8月5日

Spillover Summer Reading: The Best Books on Forecasting, Silicon Valley, and the Future

In this episode of The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby swap summer reading recommendations, including fiction and nonfiction picks covering American thinkers’ predictions for the twentieth century, an Irish murder mystery, and a Stanford student’s exposé on Silicon Valley venture capital and start-up culture. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Mentioned on the Episode: Dave Walter, Today Then Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart, The Unanchored Central Banker Tana French, The Keeper Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, Abundance Theo Baker, How to Rule the World Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
7月28日

Jordan Schneider Thinks the Real AI Race Is About Compute, Not Models

In this episode of The Spillover, host Sebastian Mallaby sits down with Jordan Schneider, founder and editor-in-chief of the ChinaTalk podcast and newsletter, to discuss AI progress and security, as well as the U.S.-China AI rivalry. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Jordan Schneider, Founder and Editor in Chief, ChinaTalk Mentioned on the Episode: Jordan Schneider, “ChinaTalk” podcast and newsletter “DeepSeek: The Quiet Giant Leading China’s AI Race,” translation of Liang Wenfeng’s interview with Waves Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
7月21日

The AI Trilemma + Open-Weight Proliferation + the “Singularity Delusion”

In this episode, The Spillover’s Sebastian Mallaby is hosted by Dan Kurtz-Phelan, editor of Foreign Affairs, to discuss the “AI trilemma”—the challenge U.S. policymakers face in encouraging enough innovation to stay ahead of China while addressing public anxiety about AI. Drawing on Mallaby’s recent Foreign Affairs essay and his new book, The Infinity Machine, this episode explores the stakes of the AI race and how its trajectory will reshape economies, societies, and global politics. Host: Dan Kurtz-Phelan, Editor, Foreign Affairs Guest: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
7月15日

Rahm Emanuel Talks Israel, Midterm Elections, and the Democratic Party

Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Rahm Emanuel, who served as President Bill Clinton’s political strategist, President Barack Obama’s first White House chief of staff, and President Joe Biden’s U.S. ambassador to Japan. The trio discuss Emanuel’s recent speech in Israel, the state of the U.S. Democratic Party, and the outlook for the upcoming midterm elections. Hosts: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Rahm Emanuel, Former U.S. Ambassador to Japan (2022–2025), Former Mayor of Chicago (2011–2019), Former White House Chief of Staff (2009–2010) Mentioned on the Episode: Emma Graham-Harrison, “Israeli Former Leaders and Security Chiefs Threaten Legal Action Over ‘Jewish Terrorism’,” The Guardian Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
7月13日

Washington Considers a Stake in OpenAI + Altman’s Gambit + America, Inc.

On this episode of The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby, joined by CFR expert Jonathan Hillman, examine the U.S. government's rapidly growing portfolio of equity stakes in private companies, including a potential stake in OpenAI. Hosts: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Jonathan E. Hillman, Senior Fellow for Geoeconomics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Mentioned on the Episode: Jonathan E. Hillman, “Washington’s Growing Portfolio: Tracking U.S. Government Investments,” CFR.org Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
7月9日

Gold vs. Bitcoin Showdown

Cohosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby stage a friendly debate over two so-called dollar alternatives—gold and bitcoin—weighing whether either has truly earned its reputation as a store of value. Patterson defends gold’s centuries of institutional credibility and diversification track record, while Mallaby makes the bull case for bitcoin’s finite supply and upside potential. Hosts: Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Mentioned on the Episode: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): The largest and most highly traded physical gold ETF, holding bullion in secure London vaults. It carries an expense ratio of 0.40 percent. This is just for information; it is not a trading recommendation. Rebecca Patterson, “Gold as an Equity Hedge Requires Patience,” Financial Times “CLARITY Act Countdown: Crypto Bill Misses July 4 Target, August 7 Deadline Looms,” Yahoo Finance “Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026,” World Gold Council Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
7月1日

Two Brits Unpack America’s 250th Birthday + The Cultural Civil War

America’s 250th birthday is the talk of the nation. But the more important story might be what the milestone reveals about the fragile bargain between democracy and markets, and whether the republic can survive its own cultural divisions. Host: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times Mentioned on the Episode: Martin Wolf, The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism: A Diagnosis of Decline and Prescription for Repair Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

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預告

Introducing The Spillover

How do critical international developments shape economic and financial markets worldwide? Each week, The Spillover examines the ripple effects of global events across policy, geopolitics, economics, technology, and finance. This podcast helps you better understand what’s happening, and why it matters to businesses, the markets, and the world. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

How do critical international developments shape economic and financial markets worldwide? Each week, The Spillover examines the ripple effects of global events across policy, geopolitics, economics, finance, and technology. This podcast helps you better understand what’s happening, and why it matters to businesses, global markets, and the world.