Moody's Talks - Inside Economics Moody's Analytics

Jonathan Smoke from Cox Automotive and Mike Brisson of Moody’s join the crew for a discussion of inflation and autos. The team dissects this week’s CPI report, which while not great, at least wasn’t worse than expected. Mark argues that the Fed should be looking through the inflation data that’s mixed up with the problematic measures of housing inflation and start lowering rates immediately. The team is mostly on board with this view although Mike convincingly argues that it may be better for the Fed to be “credibly wrong” than incredibly right.

The Inside Economics team is joined by Moody’s Analytics colleague Chris Lafakis along with Trevor Houser from the Energy & Climate practice at Rhodium Group for a discussion on how the Inflation Reduction Act promotes the U.S.'s transition to green energy. Podcast host Mark Zandi kicks things off with a quick overview of recent economic developments. The conversation then shifts to a discussion of the IRA’s incentives and tax provisions. Following a brief statistics game, the group explores the potential impact of the upcoming election on the green energy transition.

Inside Economics regular Dante DeAntonio joins the podcast to discuss the April jobs report. It was something of a surprise, but a happy one, at least for Dante and Mark. The job market remains strong, but is cooling, opening the window just a bit for the Fed to begin cutting rates. But Cris and Marisa weren’t so sure, worried that the report may signal the start of a more serious slowdown.

The Inside Economics team is down a regular with Cris on the road, but two Moody’s Analytics colleagues, Adam Kamins and Laura Ratz, try to fill the void. Mark and Marisa recap a busy week by talking about GDP, inflation, and even Fed independence. The discussion of domestic migration features a healthy dose of Philadelphia homer-ism, and the team talks about the implications of the recent surge in immigration, along with plans for new population estimates from the Congressional Budget Office.

Deputy Chief Economist at Cushman Wakefield, Rebecca Rockey, joins the Inside Economics crew to talk about the outlook for commercial real estate and the economy in general. After unpacking the week’s economic events and a quick primer on outrigger canoe paddling, Rebecca walks the IE team through the different segments of CRE and how they’re faring. Mark goes through a “what’s bugging me about CRE” list but Marisa can only see the bright side. Finally, Rebecca and Cris discuss their views on the possibility of a CRE doom loop.

The disappointing March report on consumer price inflation is the fodder for this week’s Inside Economics podcast. The team considers just how big of a disappointment it was, and conclude it turns on second and third significant digits. Yes, that’s what it has come to when assessing just when Fed officials will feel sufficiently confident that inflation is headed back to their target and begin to cut rates. Of course, there are threats to the inflation outlook, most immediate being higher oil prices, which the group takes up.