Excess Returns

Excess Returns
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. HACE 16 H

    Andy Constan on Investing Through Bubbles | First Principles Episode 1

    First Principles with Andy Constan launches with a deep dive into market bubbles, AI, semiconductor stocks, and the financial conditions that can turn powerful technological change into a dangerous investment regime. Andy explains how bubbles form, why they are almost impossible to time, how today’s AI boom compares to past episodes like 1987, the dot-com bubble, housing, and the bond bubble, and what investors should watch as expectations, financing, and FOMO build. Andy Constan on Xhttps://x.com/dampedspring Damped Spring Advisorshttps://dampedspring.com/ Topics covered: Why bubbles are easy to identify in hindsight but nearly impossible to define in real time The difference between an expensive market and a true bubble regime How new technologies, easy money, regulation, and exogenous shocks can create bubble conditions Why AI may rhyme with the internet boom without being an exact repeat The role of ChatGPT, Microsoft’s OpenAI investment, and semiconductor earnings expectations What the 1987 crash, Japan, housing, bonds, and dot-com bubble can teach investors today Why human nature, FOMO, and “keeping up with the Joneses” make bubbles so powerful How the late-1990s Fed response to Long-Term Capital Management helped fuel the final phase of the tech bubble Why tech’s current size in the economy and market may limit how far the AI boom can grow How AI capex, hyperscaler spending, buybacks, debt issuance, and IPO supply could determine what happens next Timestamps:00:00 Intro and the challenge of identifying bubbles04:32 Expensive markets vs true bubble regimes09:57 The five bubble episodes Andy compares to today14:35 Root conditions, escalation events, and the peaking phase19:20 Why the 1987 crash may also have been a bubble24:25 The late-1990s setup and the Netscape Navigator moment28:00 Crisis analogs, easy financial conditions, and today’s AI parallels32:20 Long-Term Capital Management and rocket fuel for the tech bubble36:11 Why tech’s market share matters more today than in the 1990s43:18 Policy mistakes, subsidies, and how governments feed bubbles47:42 Semiconductor earnings expectations and valuation risk53:45 The AI capex chain and where the money has to come from58:42 IPOs, corporate debt, and the financing risk behind the AI boom01:02:27 What investors should do differently in a bubble regime

    1 h 5 min

  2. HACE 1 DÍA

    He Wrote the Book on Bubbles | Edward Chancellor on If AI is Different

    Edward Chancellor joins Kai Wu on the latest episode of the Intangible Economy to discuss what financial history and capital cycle theory can teach investors about today’s AI boom. They explore why transformative technologies can still produce terrible investor returns, how overinvestment develops, where anti-bubbles may be forming, and what past episodes like the railway mania, the dot-com bubble, China’s investment boom and the post-2008 interest rate regime suggest about the risks and opportunities today. Subscribe on Spotify⁠ ⁠Subscribe on Apple Topics covered: How capital cycle theory applies to the AI data center boom Why railway mania, autos, aircraft and the dot-com bubble offer lessons for today Why markets often fund major technology transitions but fail to identify the winners The prisoner’s dilemma driving hyperscaler AI spending Whether AI demand can justify the supply being built How GPU depreciation and AI capital spending may affect reported earnings Why hallucinations and reliability may limit the total addressable market for large language models The case for looking at AI anti-bubbles instead of shorting the bubble directly Why China shows that strong GDP growth does not guarantee strong shareholder returns How intangible capital, SaaS valuations and human capital fit into capital cycle analysis Whether bubbles can be good for society while still being bad for investors Why the long-term interest rate cycle may have changed The role of gold in a world of expensive stocks, rising debt and vulnerable bonds Timestamps: 00:00 Edward Chancellor on capital cycles, bubbles and AI 04:42 Why the railway mania became a classic overinvestment cycle 09:00 Why markets fund technology booms but often miss the winners 13:19 The prisoner’s dilemma behind AI spending 17:30 Will AI demand justify the supply being built 20:00 How capital spending can inflate profits before the bust 25:08 The AI Hindenburg moment and the limits of large language models 30:55 Why AI hype may exceed the proven technology 35:55 Why the anti-bubble may matter more than shorting AI 40:00 The energy transition bubble and the opportunity in overlooked assets 45:08 China’s lesson on GDP growth and shareholder returns 49:27 Big Booze, GLP-1s and the Lindy effect 54:23 Can intangible capital have its own capital cycle 59:54 SaaS valuations and the index creation warning signal 01:04:10 Why bubbles can help society but hurt investors 01:09:09 Why long-term rates may be in a new multi-decade cycle 01:14:07 Why Edward Chancellor still sees a role for gold

    1 h 17 min

  3. HACE 3 DÍAS

    We Asked an Options Expert Why This Melt Up Hasn’t Broken — and Which Signal Could End It

    Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand for the May 2026 OPEX Effect to break down what options positioning is saying after a massive AI and semiconductor-led market rally. They discuss SPX call volume, zero DTE options, dealer gamma, VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings, oil risk, AI CapEx, and why options flows may help explain both the market’s recent melt-up and the potential for a volatility shift after OPEX. Guest Links Brent Kochuba on Xhttps://x.com/spotgamma SpotGammahttps://spotgamma.com/ Topics Covered Why the market has ignored oil shocks and geopolitical risk while AI earnings dominate investor attention How AI CapEx, semiconductors and mega-cap tech have driven a powerful melt-up in stocks Why options volume and zero DTE trading are increasingly important for all investors How dealer hedging, delta and gamma can affect stock market moves Why options expiration can create short-term turning points in markets and volatility What the May OPEX setup says about call-heavy positioning in the S&P 500 Why single-stock options activity in NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple, Amazon and AI-related names matters How record SPX call volume is being driven by short-dated options flows Why Brent is watching VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings and May 19 to May 20 for volatility expansion What oil, VIX, correlation and dispersion are signaling about market risk Timestamps 00:00 Intro: SPX call volume, call-heavy positioning and transient options flows00:57 Are we in melt-up mode?05:29 AI, UFOs and how fast market narratives are changing09:00 Why options flows matter more for everyday investors13:39 Could SpaceX become the next huge options market?16:00 How dealer hedging, delta and gamma move through the market20:44 Why OPEX can become a turning point for stocks and volatility23:22 Why May OPEX is so call heavy28:07 The market rally into May expiration33:00 AI rebranding, meme behavior and downside headline risk36:07 Reviewing last month’s oil and volatility setup40:17 How the war flipped market leadership back to tech44:13 Dealer gamma support in the S&P 50049:19 Single-stock gamma in NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple and Amazon51:06 Record SPX call volume and the role of zero DTE54:55 Semiconductor, AI and memory call volume57:50 From bearish positioning to peak-bull dispersion59:22 Oil, the S&P 500 and changing correlations01:03:06 COR1M, dispersion risk and when Brent considers hedging01:04:57 Brent’s key takeaways for May OPEX and volatility expansion

    1 h 7 min

  4. HACE 6 DÍAS

    We Asked a $4.5B Quant Manager Why the S&P 500 Is Just 46 Stocks — and Why Small Caps Aren't Dead

    Elena Khoziaeva, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Bridgeway Capital Management, joins Excess Returns to discuss factor investing, small caps, value investing, market concentration, intangibles, passive investing, market neutral strategies, and the role of AI in quantitative investment research. We cover how Bridgeway combines disciplined quantitative models with human judgment, why the S&P 500 may be less diversified than investors think, and how investors can think about diversification when mega-cap growth stocks dominate market returns. Bridgeway Capital Management https://bridgeway.com/ I Know What You Did Last Summer https://bridgeway.com/perspectives/i-know-what-you-did-last-summer/ How Many Stocks Are Effectively in the S&P 500? https://bridgeway.com/perspectives/how-many-stocks-are-effectively-in-the-sp500/ Topics Covered Why quantitative investing still needs human judgment and skepticism The difference between smart beta and true multi-factor portfolio construction How Bridgeway combines value, quality, sentiment and risk controls Why the size premium may depend on how small-cap stocks are defined Why recently fallen large caps and IPOs can distort small-cap research How the small-cap universe has changed as companies stay private longer How intangible assets affect traditional value and quality metrics Why value can work in bursts and why timing factor rotations is so difficult How concentrated the S&P 500 has become using the HHI framework Why passive investing may create opportunities for active small-cap managers How market neutral strategies can help investors manage equity market volatility How AI can help with data, text analysis and trading without replacing investment judgment Timestamps 00:00 Why fewer than 50 stocks are driving S&P 500 returns 01:04 Bridgeway’s evidence-based investing approach 02:59 Why quantitative models need human judgment 07:52 Smart beta vs multi-factor investing 11:32 How Bridgeway builds multi-factor portfolios 16:08 Rethinking the size premium 20:31 Has the small-cap universe gotten worse? 23:49 How intangibles change value investing 28:05 Does value still work? 30:09 Why value returns can be episodic 33:11 Why factor investors need patience 35:22 How concentrated is the S&P 500? 40:29 Factor strategies as portfolio diversifiers 41:41 Passive investing and market structure 44:27 Managing volatility with market neutral strategies 49:40 How systematic managers update their models 55:02 How Bridgeway is using AI 01:00:03 Elena’s biggest lesson for investors

    1 h 3 min

  5. 6 MAY

    The Last Moat | Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel on the Stock Picking Edge AI Can’t Replicate

    This episode of our new showThe 100 Year Thinkers brings together Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel for a deep discussion on long-term stock picking, microcap investing, business quality, AI disruption, management teams, and the behavioral skills that separate great investors from great analysts. They explore why the edge in investing may increasingly come from judgment, presence, relationships, patience, and the ability to hold the right businesses through uncertainty. Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers on Spotify⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers on Apple Topics Covered Why being present with management teams may still be an investor edge in the age of AI How microcap investing differs from small-cap, mid-cap and large-cap investing Why talking to management can build conviction but also create bias How Chris Mayer thinks about vertical market software, mission-critical systems and AI disruption Why AI may become table stakes rather than a durable competitive advantage How small companies can use AI to improve workflows, sales, inventory and productivity Why many microcaps have short shelf lives and rarely become true long-term compounders The role of intelligent fanatics, owner-operators and repeat winners in great investments Why management transitions can create powerful microcap opportunities The difference between being a great analyst and being a great investor Why execution, position sizing, selling losers and holding winners matter more than hit rate How Matt and Bogumil apply the lessons to AI, business quality and the limits of small business scalability Timestamps 00:49 Introducing Chris Mayer, Ian Cassel and 100 Year Thinkers 04:59 Ian Cassel’s first management meeting and XM Satellite Radio 09:00 Why management meetings deepen understanding but can also mislead 14:32 Chris Mayer on the real edge in long-term investing 18:40 Mission-critical software, systems of record and AI disruption 22:45 How microcap companies are using AI in real businesses 27:02 AI as table stakes and when disruption creates opportunity 31:29 Why most microcaps have short shelf lives35:51 Finding Tom Brady before the market knows he is Tom Brady 40:53 Why owner-operators and intelligent fanatics matter 45:03 Second-in-command leaders, repeat winners and chips on shoulders 49:27 Analyst vs investor and the missing skills of stock picking 54:00 Using data to identify investor strengths, weaknesses and decision errors 58:14 Position sizing and letting small positions earn the right to grow 01:03:00 Peter Lynch, stocks as businesses and learning to think like an owner 01:07:00 AI, human judgment and the limits of automation 01:11:00 Why not every small business can become the next Facebook 01:15:00 Where to follow Bogumil and the 100 Year Thinkers series

    1 h 17 min

  6. 4 MAY

    We Asked Rich Bernstein and Chris Davis Why This Market Isn’t as Safe as It Feels

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines what Chris Davis and Rich Bernstein can teach investors about letting winners run, inflation risk, market concentration, dividends, AI, and the difference between economic stories and investment returns. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on portfolio concentration, the 1960s vs. the 1970s, investor complacency, the Fed’s inflation target, durable businesses, and where the next market opportunity may be hiding. Subscribe on Spotify Subscribe on Apple Topics Covered Why letting winners run can be so powerful, but so hard for professional investors Chris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling great companies The tradeoff between concentration, diversification and real-world portfolio risk Why Rich Bernstein thinks today may look more like the 1960s than the 1970s How oil prices affect consumer behavior when measured against wages Chris Davis on why perceived risk can be very different from actual risk What cars, insurance and investor behavior reveal about market complacency Why the Fed’s 2% inflation target may not reflect the world investors are living in The relationship between valuation, durability and software stocks Why higher inflation could increase demand for dividends and near-term cash flow Chris Davis on why exceptional people and management teams matter in investing Why AI may be a great economic story but not necessarily a great investment story Timestamps 00:00 Letting winners run, 1960s inflation and investor risk perception02:18 Chris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling08:32 Reinvestment risk and the limits of active management12:45 Why oil shocks may matter less when gasoline is low relative to wages20:25 Chris Davis on why feeling safe can make investors take more risk29:20 Rich Bernstein on whether the Fed’s 2% inflation target is outdated34:08 Chris Davis on durability, valuation and software stocks39:39 Why cash flow gives durable companies room to adapt43:16 Rich Bernstein on dividends, inflation and the need for cash today51:55 Chris Davis on why people matter more than investors think56:07 The risk and value of investing with exceptional leaders1:01:30 Rich Bernstein on AI as an economic story vs. an investment story1:05:13 Why AI productivity may not translate into obvious stock market winners

    1 h 10 min

  7. 1 MAY

    We Asked Ben Hunt, Jim Paulsen, Kevin Muir and Brent Kochuba Why Bad News Can’t Break This Market

    This episode of Last Call breaks down one of the most confusing market environments in recent memory: why stocks continue to rise despite war, oil shocks, and growing macro risks. Through conversations with Jim Paulsen, Ben Hunt, Kevin Muir, and Brent Kochuba, we explore the tension between strong earnings, hidden risks in private credit and global growth, and the powerful role of flows and positioning in driving markets higher. Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠ Topics Covered Why markets are ignoring war, oil shocks, and geopolitical risk The “supernova” risk in private credit and why it hasn’t hit markets yet How supply-driven inflation differs from 1970s-style demand inflation Why pessimistic sentiment may actually be supporting markets The role of earnings growth and valuation resets in fueling the rally Bull vs bear case for markets based on macro, earnings, and positioning Why free cash flow trends may be more concerning than earnings How options flows and dealer positioning are suppressing volatility The AI capex boom and its impact on market leadership and breadth The growing divide between Mag 7 earnings and the rest of the market Timestamps 00:00 Intro and market overview01:37 Why markets are not falling despite negative news03:00 Buy-the-dip behavior and earnings resilience06:11 Ben Hunt on “supernova” risks in private credit08:00 Hidden credit crunch in middle market companies10:24 Why private credit matters for economic growth14:10 Oil supply shocks and global growth risks17:00 Why markets can ignore risks before they appear18:48 Jim Paulsen on market resilience and sentiment20:00 Why pessimism may reduce downside risk22:24 Inflation vs labor force growth framework24:00 Why current inflation is supply-driven, not demand-driven26:00 Potential shift from inflation focus to growth focus29:11 Kevin Muir on bull vs bear market setup31:00 War impact on rates, oil, and positioning33:00 Fed reaction and shifting rate expectations35:00 Why earnings remain the dominant market driver37:00 Why geopolitics often doesn’t move markets40:00 Bear case: weak free cash flow and employment risk44:26 Brent Kochuba on options flows and positioning47:00 Why markets ignore rising rates and oil49:00 Call buying, dispersion, and tech leadership51:00 Energy as both hedge and AI-driven opportunity54:00 Correlation, volatility, and market structure56:00 Dealer positioning and suppressed volatility58:00 Earnings strength and narrow market leadership01:01:00 Free cash flow vs earnings debate01:01:55 AI capex and long-term market implications

    1 h 8 min

  8. 29 ABR

    The Opportunity No One Sees | Richard Bernstein on Finding Value in a Narrow Market

    This episode explores one of the most important debates in markets today: whether investors are underestimating the risk of higher inflation and overconcentrating in a narrow group of growth stocks. Richard Bernstein of Janus Henderson Investors joins Excess Returns to explain why today’s environment may look more like the inflationary 1960s than the 1970s, what that means for portfolios, and why many investors may be disappointed with passive index returns over the next decade. Richard walks through the implications of rising import prices, global conflict, and deglobalization, and how these forces could drive a structural shift toward higher inflation and shorter-duration investing. He also explains why market concentration, AI enthusiasm, and capital flows may be setting up a broadening opportunity across overlooked areas of the market. Follow Rich on Twitter: https://twitter.com/RBAdvisors Company Website: https://www.rbadvisors.com Why investors in S&P 500 index funds may face disappointing long-term returns The shift from exporting disinflation to importing inflation through global trade How war and geopolitical conflict are influencing inflation expectations and markets Why today’s environment resembles the 1960s “guns and butter” period more than the 1970s The case for structurally higher inflation and a potential shift in Fed targets Why shorter-duration assets, dividends, and cash flow matter more in inflationary regimes The risks of overconcentration in AI and mega-cap growth stocks How capital flows and valuation distortions create opportunities outside the Mag 7 The case for international equities and why investors are significantly underweight Where Bernstein sees the most compelling long-term opportunities across sectors and regions 00:00 Intro and why index investors could be disappointed 00:01:13 War, inflation, and the impact of rising gasoline prices 00:02:40 Importing inflation and the role of global trade dynamics 00:03:33 1970s oil shock vs 1960s guns and butter comparison 00:05:00 Why today’s inflation environment may be less severe than the 1970s 00:06:30 Defense spending, tax cuts, and inflation expectations 00:08:54 Why Bernstein is taking the “over” on inflation and deficits 00:10:00 The case for a higher long-term inflation target 00:11:00 Why the Fed may resist changing its 2% inflation target 00:12:00 Deglobalization and the rise of global conflict 00:14:00 Global inflation dynamics and divergence across countries 00:15:21 Why cash and short-duration assets may outperform 00:17:00 Asset-liability mismatches and the endowment model stress 00:18:23 Market concentration and parallels to the dot-com bubble 00:20:00 AI as an economic story vs an investment story 00:21:00 Capital flows, valuation excess, and future return expectations 00:22:39 Why market broadening opportunities may emerge 00:24:19 Passive flows, ETFs, and market distortions 00:25:40 Where Bernstein sees sector opportunities today 00:27:34 The case for dividends in an inflationary environment 00:31:00 Why near-term cash flow matters more than long-term growth 00:33:07 Corporate behavior, capital allocation, and rising hurdle rates 00:36:02 Profit cycle strength and why the market should broaden 00:41:36 Evaluating IPOs and speculative investments 00:47:09 The risk of a lost decade for index investors 00:50:21 Gold, commodities, and portfolio diversification 00:53:48 Most attractive overlooked opportunities today 00:58:06 Biggest long-term risks and what keeps Bernstein up at night

    1 h 2 min
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

Información

  • Creador
    Excess Returns
  • Años de actividad
    2019 - 2026
  • Episodios
    505
  • Clasificación
    Explícito
  • Copyright
    © 905628
  • Mostrar sitio web
    Excess Returns

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