Oil Ground Up

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Rory Johnston navigates listeners through the financial market dynamics of the world's oil and gas sector. Get the latest fundamentals behind the price action and hear from industry experts from the field and from the corporate offices of the world's leading energy producers.

HACE 3 H

How Iran Weaponized the World’s Most Important Oil Chokepoint

Edward Fishman joins Rory for a sweeping conversation on the evolution of modern economic warfare, the origins of U.S. sanctions strategy against Iran, and how today’s Strait of Hormuz crisis is reshaping global energy markets in real time. Drawing from his book Choke Points, Fishman explains how sanctions, secondary sanctions, and financial pressure campaigns evolved from quiet Treasury Department diplomacy into one of America’s most powerful geopolitical tools. The discussion also explores why oil prices have remained surprisingly subdued despite major supply disruptions, including the role of Trump’s public interventions, market psychology, and the growing belief that geopolitical risk no longer guarantees an oil price spike. Rory and Eddie debate whether Iran has permanently changed the balance of power in the Persian Gulf by effectively institutionalizing control over the Strait of Hormuz and what that means for global trade, shipping, and future sanctions policy. The conversation revisits the Obama-era sanctions campaign, the collapse of the JCPOA, the rise of shadow fleets and sanctions evasion, and how both China and Iran have adapted to years of American economic pressure. From nuclear negotiations and frozen Iranian assets to tanker tolls, oil inventories, and the limits of American power, this episode connects decades of economic statecraft to the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape investors face today.

1 h 8 min
7 MAY

Energy Stocks Are Still Cheap? Eric Nuttall Explains the Opportunity

Eric Nuttall joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to discuss what he believes is the largest energy supply shock in modern history following the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He explains why markets remain dangerously complacent despite massive global inventory drawdowns, rising geopolitical risks, and the potential for structurally higher oil prices well into the future. The conversation dives into why energy equities still appear deeply undervalued, how Canadian oil producers could benefit from a long-term supply crunch, and why Nuttall sees a generational opportunity emerging in the sector. Nuttall also outlines the risks investors should be watching closely, including possible U.S. export restrictions, weakening demand from higher fuel prices, and continued volatility tied to Middle East tensions. The discussion further explores the future of U.S. shale growth, Canada’s pipeline constraints, and the strategic importance of energy infrastructure in an increasingly unstable global market. From inventory math to capital flows, this episode offers a deep dive into the macro forces reshaping global oil markets and the investment landscape around them.

1 h 2 min
29 ABR

Tracking Tankers Through Chaos: Shadow Fleets, Blockades, and the New Oil War

Maritime intelligence expert Michelle Bockmann joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to unpack the unprecedented disruption in global oil flows following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. She explains how Iran’s shadow fleet has continued operating under the radar while broader tanker traffic has collapsed, with U.S. enforcement sharply curtailing exports and reshaping global supply routes. The conversation dives into the complexities of tracking “dark” vessels, the role of satellite intelligence, and the growing challenges posed by GPS jamming, drone warfare, and misinformation in maritime data. Bockmann also highlights the human and commercial realities behind the crisis, from stranded crews and insurance breakdowns to the difficult risk calculations facing shipowners. As oil markets grapple with dislocated supply chains, she outlines why reopening the Strait could take weeks to clear and months to normalize. The discussion further explores geopolitical ripple effects, including OPEC tensions and shifting trade flows through alternative routes like the Red Sea. Ultimately, Bockmann offers a grounded view on what to watch next, emphasizing that while the blockade is effective, uncertainty and disruption remain the defining features of today’s global oil market.

55 min
24 ABR

Amena Bakr on the Market Blindness to the 13 Million Barrel Shock

Amena Bakr, the Head of Middle East Research at Kpler, joins Rory to provide an inside look at the functional closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where daily traffic has collapsed from 170 vessels to just 5% of its pre-war levels. The sources indicate that even with an optimistic base case for normalization in August, clearing the backlog of 800+ trapped ships will likely take at least two additional months. Amena warns that the threat of maritime mines remains a strategic "wild card" that could extend the recovery timeline by up to six months. The discussion breaks down the "Iran Lane" management system and the controversial $2 million cryptocurrency tolls being reported by vessel owners seeking to bypass the blockade. With roughly 13 million barrels per day of production shut in, the discussion explores the physical damage to downstream assets and a potential five-year recovery timeline for Qatari LNG trains. Johnston and Amena address the market's underreaction to the crisis, citing the distorting effects of presidential social media posts and alleged price manipulation that has kept Brent near $100. Beyond the energy sector, the blockade is triggering a "reality check" for global supply chains, specifically impacting the helium supply necessary for semiconductors and medical imaging. Finally, the conversation highlights how OPEC is attempting to provide a "steady hand" and structural predictability while the region prepares for a post-war status quo where regional pipelines may permanently replace the Strait

1 h 5 min
17 ABR

Paper vs Physical: Inside Oil’s $30 Backwardation Shock with Veteran Trader Adi Imsirovic

Adi Imsirovic, a veteran oil trader and former academic, returns to the podcast to break down the mechanics of the Brent market at a moment of historic disruption. With more than 13 million barrels per day of supply offline and extreme volatility across the curve, Imsirovic explains how oil pricing actually works beneath the surface—distinguishing between physical “dated” Brent and financial futures, and why the recent divergence between the two is not a market failure, but a reflection of timing, scarcity, and panic-driven demand for immediate barrels. The conversation dives into the structure of the Brent complex, including forward markets, CFDs, and the role of exchange-for-physical mechanisms that link paper and physical trading. Imsirovic argues that the record backwardation—at times reaching nearly thirty dollars between prompt and forward barrels—signals not just tightness, but outright panic in physical markets as refiners scramble to secure supply. These dynamics are further amplified by surging premiums for specific crude grades and growing dislocations between refinery margins and input costs. Finally, the discussion turns to what the futures curve is really signaling. While front-end prices reflect immediate scarcity, longer-dated contracts suggest expectations for eventual resolution, with OPEC spare capacity and potential demand destruction looming in the background. Imsirovic emphasizes that price structure—not just flat price—holds the key to understanding oil markets, particularly in an environment shaped as much by geopolitical shocks and policy volatility as by traditional supply-demand fundamentals.

46 min
9 ABR

Record Backwardation: Understanding the Economic Return of USO in the Midst of a Global Supply Loss

John Love, the CEO of USCF Investments, joins the podcast to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the United States Oil Fund (USO), which was the third commodity ETF ever launched. He explains that unlike physical gold funds, USO provides investors with access to the oil market by holding futures contracts, effectively "equitizing" a complex asset class that would otherwise require managing margin calls and rolling positions. A key distinction Love makes is that USO is designed to track the daily economic return of its underlying contracts, not the long-term spot price of oil, meaning its performance is heavily influenced by the "roll yield". The conversation addresses the current record backwardation in WTI, which recently saw prompt spreads hit $15 a barrel, a historic level of physical scarcity driven by the ongoing Hormuz energy crisis. This volatility is compared to the "uncharted territory" of April 2020, when futures prices plummeted to negative $37, forcing the fund to temporarily shift from a front-month strategy to a multi-contract basket to ensure stability. Finally, while there is political pressure for "drill, baby, drill" in the U.S., Love observes that many producers remain cautious due to capital discipline and the inability to lock in high spot prices on the back end of the futures curve.

57 min
2 ABR

Brutal Barrel Math: The Destruction of 10+ Million Barrels a Day Demand

Karim Fawaz joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to analyze the relentless four-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on global energy balances. The conversation explores why futures markets are "grievously underpricing" the current physical loss of 12 to 13 million barrels per day, a shock Fawaz describes as orders of magnitude more severe than any recent crisis. Unlike the managed demand destruction of the pandemic, this unmanaged supply loss forces a chaotic rebalancing that threatens to trigger a "global depressionary contraction" across the global South. The guests delve into the "Unilateral Taco" scenario, analyzing the potential collapse of the Carter Doctrine if President Trump chooses to withdraw U.S. security guarantees from the region. The discussion highlights the emergence of "Fortress North America," noting that the U.S. and Canada are uniquely positioned to weather the crisis through domestic production and flexible refining capacity. Ultimately, Fawaz warns that this is no longer just an intellectual exercise in balancing spreadsheets, but a human catastrophe with life-or-death consequences for millions.

58 min
31 MAR

An End to the Carter Doctrine? - What it would Mean if US Left the War While the Strait is Still Shut?

Gregory Brew of Eurasia Group joins Rory to discuss the potential collapse of the Carter Doctrine following a provocative social media post by President Trump regarding the security of the Persian Gulf. The discussion centers on the 1980 policy that committed the U.S. to using military force to protect the flow of oil, a guarantee that now appears to be evaporating as Trump signals an end to U.S. protection for global energy routes. With the Strait of Hormuz closed for over a month and oil prices soaring toward $200, the episode explores the "Unilateral Taco" scenario where Trump might abruptly end hostilities regardless of whether the waterway is reopened. Brew analyzes Iran's shift from a struggle for survival to a strategic effort to maximize gains and impose tolls, leveraging their functional control over the world's most critical maritime chokepoint. The conversation also breaks down the "hydraulic relationship" between energy prices and political pressure, specifically how Iran uses allies like the Houthis as a lever to keep prices high and force a U.S. de-escalation. Brew examines the precarious position of GCC nations and Israel, who face the risk of their territories becoming permanent "live fire zones" if the U.S. abandons its traditional security role. Finally, the episode questions what a post-war status quo looks like and whether the credibility of U.S. energy guarantees can ever be restored after such a fundamental shift in geopolitical priorities

53 min

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Rory Johnston navigates listeners through the financial market dynamics of the world's oil and gas sector. Get the latest fundamentals behind the price action and hear from industry experts from the field and from the corporate offices of the world's leading energy producers.