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Justin Robert Young
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Unbiased political analysis the way you wish still existed. Justin Robert Young isn't here to tell you what to think, he's here to tell you who is going to win and why. www.politicspoliticspolitics.com

  1. 1D AGO

    Kentucky's Crazy Republican Primary Ads! Is Iran Settling in for the Long Haul? (with Ryan McBeth)

    Kentucky’s Republican primary out of its 4th District has turned into the most expensive House primary in American history, and it doesn’t take a detective to tell where the money went. No, not into field operations. Not into policy. Not even into persuasion. It went into some of the most deranged political advertisements I have ever seen. Thirty-two million dollars dumped into a district where basically all the ad spending is concentrated around Cincinnati media buys, and the result is a nonstop fever dream where every commercial break feels like somebody slipped hallucinogens into the broadcast feed. At the center of all this is Thomas Massie, who has spent years building a reputation as the libertarian conscience of the Republican Party. He’s the guy who votes no on spending bills, needles leadership, pushes Epstein file transparency, and generally treats party discipline like a disease. Normally that kind of anti-establishment energy would mesh perfectly with Trumpism. Instead, Trump absolutely hates him. Massie crossed him too many times, and now removing him from Congress has become a personal project for the president. Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. The actual challenger, Ed Gallrein, barely matters as a political figure in his own race. His campaign’s main qualification is basically “Donald Trump likes me more than the other guy.” That’s enough. The first ads are almost normal by comparison. One of them goes after Massie for abandoning his old support for term limits. Another features Massie literally walking alongside a CGI elephant wearing a MAGA hat and Trump hair while talking about how he and Trump are aligned after all. It’s less “principled constitutional conservative” and more “please stop yelling at me, sir.” Then the campaign fully leaves Earth’s atmosphere. One anti-Gallrein ad argues that the real force behind the race is some kind of shadowy gay liberal conspiracy, complete with rainbow lighting effects and a parade of terrifyingly unflattering images of trans women like the editor accidentally imported a folder labeled “Fox News Facebook comments.” In other words, on’t be fooled by Trump endorsing Gallrein — the real people backing him are THE GAYS. It feels less like a campaign commercial and more like a local-access panic attack. And then came the AI ad. One PAC generated fake footage of Thomas Massie romantically wandering around Washington with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar. Hand-holding. Walking together. Getting into cars. Ending at a hotel room with a “Do Not Disturb” sign hanging on the door. The implication is obviously that Massie is not merely politically disloyal, but sexually and emotionally aligned with the Democratic left in some kind of forbidden MSNBC throuple. This is the sort of nonsense that 32 million dollars will buy you in 2026. The craziest part is that this stuff probably works. Maybe not the specifics, but the overall environment absolutely does. If you live in Kentucky right now, these ads are your atmosphere. You cannot escape them. Basketball game? Ads. Baseball? Ads. YouTube? Ads. Streaming? Ads. Every available surface is screaming about Thomas Massie, Donald Trump, transgender conspiracies, and AI-generated hotel hookups. National media tends to treat Massie like an interesting ideological dissenter, but Republican primaries are not decided by cable-news admiration. They’re decided by highly motivated Republican voters who really, really care whether Donald Trump wants somebody gone. Chapters 00:00:00 - Intro 00:03:33 - Kentucky Primary Ads 00:13:51 - Interview with Ryan McBeth 00:42:30 - $1 Billion Ballroom 00:45:58 - IRS Lawsuit 00:49:49 - Trump’s Bad Polls 00:54:08 - Interview with Ryan McBeth, con’t 01:32:40 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

    1h 36m

  2. 5D AGO

    Why Vance vs. Rubio 2028 Isn't Real! How AI Will Impact Midterms and Beyond (with Katie Harbath)

    The obsession with a hypothetical JD Vance versus Marco Rubio showdown for 2028 says a lot more about the Republican fascination with palace intrigue than it does about actual political reality. Trump himself clearly enjoys stirring the pot, whether he’s privately asking allies which one they prefer or turning a public event into a literal applause contest. To be fair, both men have handled the awkwardness well. Vance joked that it’d be very unlike Donald Trump to hold a televised competition to decide his successor, while Rubio has mostly brushed the drama off. But the deeper point is that this chatter only really matters if Trump’s presidency ends in a very specific way — something it’s looking increasingly unlikely to do. If Trump rebounds politically and leaves office on a high note with Republicans, the conversation is basically over before it starts. JD Vance is the vice president, he’s fully aligned with the administration, and there’s no obvious reason he’d lose his grip on the base. Republican politics has become so intensely loyalty-driven that there are very few examples of major figures breaking away successfully. In that world, Vance is simply the heir apparent because continuity becomes the safest and easiest path for the party. Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. The only scenario where Rubio really becomes a viable alternative is if the administration collapses politically by the end of the term. But that creates a massive “Catch-22,” because if things go south, Rubio is one of the people most likely to absorb the damage. Iran is the perfect example. Trump may ultimately get blamed for rising gas prices and economic frustration, but Rubio, as Secretary of State, would almost certainly carry the bag for the foreign policy side of the equation. If the administration’s biggest weakness becomes a war that spirals, Rubio is standing much closer to the blast radius than Vance is. That’s what makes the whole “Vance vs. Rubio” framing feel pretty silly right now: the conditions that would make Rubio a serious alternative are probably the exact same conditions that would weaken him the most. Still, the fact that people are even entertaining the idea says something important about Rubio himself. Back in 2016, he often looked overwhelmed trying to compete with Trump’s brand of politics. Now, he comes across as far sharper, calmer, and more comfortable in his own skin. Years in the Senate clearly helped, but so did surviving the wreckage of his first presidential campaign. The version of Rubio inside this administration is a much more polished figure than the one Republicans watched a decade ago. He’s become more confident in interviews, more effective in hearings, and more naturally presidential in public settings. Just look at a recent exchange in the White House press briefing room, where Rubio gave a thoughtful answer about what it means to be an American. It’s exactly the kind of moment that reminds people why he was once viewed as the party’s “golden boy” in the first place. He feels less like a nervous young senator trying to prove himself and more like someone who finally understands how the levers of power actually work. But there’s still a ceiling on how independent anyone in Trump’s orbit can really become. Rubio may be more charismatic and politically mature than he was before, but Republican politics still revolves around Trump’s approval in a way that can change in a heartbeat. One bad Truth Social post can instantly transform an ally into a target. Rubio already learned the hard way that MAGA voters were skeptical of him, especially given his reputation as a more traditional hawk. That skepticism hasn’t fully evaporated. So while he’s certainly more compelling today than he was in 2016, there’s a real chance this is the most comfortable position he’ll ever occupy: close enough to the sun to feel the warmth, but still not quite part of the inner circle. And that path doesn’t put you in the Oval Office, friends. Chapters 00:00:00 - Intro 00:03:37 - Why Vance vs. Rubio Doesn’t Matter 00:15:21 - Trump’s Trip to China 00:20:52 - Democrats Get Aggressive 00:23:53 - Fireworks!!! 00:26:46 - Interview with Katie Harbath 01:02:16 - Wrap-up and Odyssey Controversy Thoughts This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

    1h 12m

  3. MAY 12

    Iran War Brings BIG Inflation. Is the UK Already in Need of Another PM? (with Stella Tsantekidou)

    Trump’s trip to China is happening at the exact moment his most persistent political vulnerability is becoming impossible to ignore: the economy. Inflation has ticked up to 3.8% year over year, gas prices are rising again, and the White House is leaning on a familiar argument — to the Biden administration, at least — that the pressure is temporary. At the same time, instability in the Strait of Hormuz keeps energy markets on edge, with the potential for sudden price shocks baked into the background. The administration’s framing is that this is the cost of a broader strategic shift: a tougher posture toward Iran and a reordering of global trade in America’s favor. The issue is that voters don’t experience macro strategy as macro strategy. They experience it as prices at the pump, at the grocery store, and in monthly bills. Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. That gap is widening in housing. The spring buying season, usually a reliable indicator of economic momentum, is unusually subdued. Mortgage rates and uncertainty are keeping buyers out of the market, reinforcing a sense that affordability is slipping out of reach even when headline indicators are mixed. This is where the politics get sticky. Economic perception tends to lock in emotionally before it ever becomes analytical. Once recurring costs start to feel consistently painful, the economy stops being a set of statistics and becomes a daily irritant. At that point, presidential approval on the economy becomes hard to unwind, even if conditions later improve. Against that backdrop, the China trip is unusually high stakes. The administration is trying to sell it as a potential economic pivot point, with talk of Chinese investment in U.S. manufacturing and a broader reset in relations. But the negotiating environment is constrained by simultaneous pressures: Middle East volatility, energy market sensitivity, and domestic inflation concerns. China is not approaching that dynamic passively. The more pressure Iran-related instability puts on oil markets, the more leverage Beijing has in shaping the terms of any broader economic or geopolitical understanding. Stability itself becomes a bargaining chip. And then, of course, behind all of this is the Taiwan question, which remains structurally unresolved regardless of public messaging. Any movement toward cooperation on Iran or energy stability would likely be accompanied by implicit tradeoffs elsewhere in the system. The concern in Washington is not an explicit Taiwan deal, but incremental shifts in positioning that accumulate over time. Given Taiwan’s central role in global semiconductor supply chains, even marginal changes in its status would ripple quickly through the technology and manufacturing sectors. Chapters 00:00:00 - Intro 00:05:47 - Inflation 00:20:30 - Virginia 00:26:22 - Cuba 00:29:42 - Iran 00:40:15 - Interview with Stella Tsantekidou 01:12:23 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

    1h 16m

  4. MAY 8

    The Best (and Worst) Bets on Midterm Races (with Evan Scrimshaw)

    The Trump administration is looking for a new ICE director, which at this point might qualify as one of the least appealing jobs in American politics. Todd Lyons is heading for the private sector at the end of the month, and whoever replaces him is walking straight into a political minefield. ICE is under pressure from every direction at once, criticism over aggressive raids, backlash tied to the Minnesota shootings, scrutiny around deaths in custody, and a White House that still wants to project toughness on immigration without constantly relitigating the most politically toxic parts of enforcement. What’s interesting is that the administration does not seem eager to escalate things even further. The expectation appears to be more continuity than confrontation, likely with a heavier focus on cases involving gangs, fraud, and violent offenders rather than the kind of broad raids that dominate cable news. But that still leaves the core problem unresolved. The administration wants someone who can satisfy the base without constantly creating politically damaging optics, and there are not many people eager to occupy that awkward middle ground. Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Susan Collins Tries to Get Ahead of the Age Question Susan Collins is trying to get in front of a political problem before it grows into something larger. After online attention focused on the visible shaking in her campaign announcement video, Collins revealed that she has a benign essential tremor that she’s managed throughout her Senate career with medication. Doctors say the condition is not tied to cognitive decline, but politically, the challenge is making sure voters hear that explanation before opponents define the issue for her. That matters because Graham Plattner’s core argument is built around generational contrast. He wants the race to be about old versus new, establishment versus change. Collins, meanwhile, would much rather make the election about experience and steadiness, especially if the alternative is a candidate dealing with his own controversies over judgment and seriousness. By addressing the tremor directly now, she’s trying to keep the focus from drifting entirely onto age and energy, which is exactly where Plattner wants it. The Epstein Story Refuses to Disappear A federal judge unsealing a purported Jeffrey Epstein suicide note is the latest reminder that this story never really leaves the public imagination, even when there’s very little genuinely new information involved. The note is undated, partially illegible, and unverified, but none of that stops it from immediately generating another wave of speculation. At this point, almost any document tied to Epstein automatically becomes a cultural event online, regardless of whether it actually changes the known facts. Part of the reason is the source itself. The note came through Epstein’s former cellmate Nicholas Tartaglione, a convicted murderer who has become a recurring figure in the broader Epstein mythology. That combination of sensational claims, unreliable narrators, and public distrust keeps the story alive indefinitely. Even when official investigations conclude one thing, there remains a huge appetite for alternative explanations, hidden details, and unresolved questions, which is why the Epstein saga never really seems to end. Chapters 00:00:00 - Intro 00:02:19 - Gasoline 00:07:00 - Political Betting Odds with Evan Scrimshaw 00:32:38 - ICE Director 00:34:36 - Susan Collins 00:37:03 - Epstein 00:39:08 - Political Betting Odds with Evan Scrimshaw, con’t 01:10:46 - Wrap-up and Ted Turner Thoughts This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

    1h 17m

  5. MAY 6

    Graham Platner's Reddit Problems Return! AI, Iran, and the Economy (with J.D. Durkin)

    Graham Plattner’s campaign is running into the kind of problem that feels very 2026, even if the source material is more than a decade old. His Reddit history, which might have once been shrugged off as niche internet noise, now looks like a liability with real teeth. The difference is not just that the posts exist, it’s how easily they can be repackaged. With AI tools, those old comments are no longer stuck as screenshots on opposition research blogs. They can be turned into polished ads, delivered in his own voice, and made to feel immediate in a way that text alone never could. That shift raises the stakes for what would otherwise be a fairly standard controversy. Plattner isn’t just dealing with awkward old posts, he’s dealing with a narrative that can be replayed, amplified, and dramatized on demand. Campaigns used to prioritize video and audio because they felt authentic. Now, authenticity can be manufactured from written records, and that blurs the line in a way that’s hard for candidates to counter. You can apologize for something you wrote, but it’s a lot harder to respond when that same thing is suddenly circulating as if you just said it yesterday. Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. What really puts him in a bind is how this intersects with the tattoo issue. His defense has been that he didn’t fully understand the symbolism at the time, but the Reddit activity suggests he was at least familiar with the debate years earlier. That tension is exactly the kind of thing opponents look to exploit. It doesn’t require voters to dig through details, it just asks a simple question that sticks: which version is true? Campaigns love that kind of contrast because it’s easy to communicate and hard to shake once it lands. There’s also a political instinct test happening here, and Republicans are not being subtle about how they feel. They want this matchup. When the other side is openly enthusiastic about running against you, it’s usually not because they’re worried. It’s because they think they’ve already got the outline of an effective attack. Plattner’s past gives them material, and the new tools available give them a way to present it that feels sharper and more persuasive than it might have even a few years ago. Stepping back, this feels like one of those races that ends up being about more than just the candidates involved. It’s a preview of how campaigns are evolving in real time. The internet has always been a permanent record, but now it’s also a fully searchable, fully reusable script. Anything a candidate has written can be pulled forward, recontextualized, and dropped into the current moment with very little friction. Plattner may still find a way through it, voters don’t always react the way campaigns expect, but if nothing else, he’s becoming an early test case for what happens when the entire online past becomes fair game in a much more vivid way. Chapters 00:00:00 - Intro 00:05:33 - Graham Platner’s Reddit 00:14:38 - Iran Ceasefire 00:18:46 - Virginia Redistricting 00:22:05 - Secret Service Upgrades 00:24:37 - J.D. Durkin on AI, Iran, and the Economy 01:04:04 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

    1h 9m

  6. APR 30

    MAINE MADNESS! Why Fixing the Supreme Court Means Fixing Congress (with Michael Cohen and Sarah Isgur)

    Janet Mills’ Senate bid in Maine is effectively over — not that it really got off the ground in the first place. She was supposed to be the top-tier recruit, the popular governor-turned-candidate Chuck Schumer believed could finally take down Susan Collins in a state that otherwise leans blue. Instead, she spent the entire race trailing Graham Plattner who, on paper, should’ve been far easier to beat. It didn’t matter what opposition research came out about him or how aggressively it was pushed. None of it stuck, and Mills never found a way to change the trajectory. What stands out is how little impact the traditional playbook had. There was plenty of money, plenty of ads, and a clear attempt to define Plattner early. But the race didn’t move. If anything, it exposed a growing gap between campaign strategy and voter behavior. Mills relied heavily on air support, while Plattner was everywhere in person, constantly holding events and staying visible. That contrast ended up mattering more than anything that showed up in a negative ad. Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. There’s also a broader lesson here about what kind of campaigning is working right now. The candidates who seem to break through are the ones who are constantly engaging, constantly talking, and constantly generating new moments. It’s less about message discipline and more about presence. Plattner fits that mold, and Mills never really did. She couldn’t match that energy, and in a race like this, that gap becomes impossible to ignore. Now the dynamic shifts to the general election, where Susan Collins gets a matchup she likely prefers. She can run as the steady, familiar option against a more unpredictable opponent, which has been her formula for years. But there’s some risk in that calculation. Wanting a specific opponent doesn’t always work out the way you expect, and recent political history has a few high profile reminders of that. Still, the immediate takeaway is simple. A highly recruited, well funded candidate lost to someone who just outworked and out-connected her. For all the sophistication in modern campaigns, this ended up being a very basic result. One candidate showed up everywhere, and the other never quite got going. Chapters 00:00:00 - Intro 00:04:01 - Janet Mills 00:08:17 - Michael Cohen on Maine, Texas, and More 00:58:58 - Iran Options 01:04:58 - DHS Shutdown 01:06:31 - Casey Means 01:08:54 - Sarah Isgur on Supreme Court Drama 01:40:05 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

    1h 46m
  7. Florida Goes Hard on Redistricting! What the Correspondents' Dinner Was Really Like (with Kirk Bado)

    APR 28

    Florida Goes Hard on Redistricting! What the Correspondents' Dinner Was Really Like (with Kirk Bado)

    Florida’s new congressional map is out, and the more I look at it, the more it feels like Republicans are trying to push right up against the edge of what is politically and legally possible. The goal is obvious: take a delegation that used to split closer to 20 to 8 and force it into a 24 to 4 map. The way they get there is not subtle. It is classic packing and cracking, cramming Democrats into a handful of ultra blue districts while shaving just enough of that vote into surrounding areas to flip them red. On paper, it works. In practice, it might be a little too clever for its own good. The Orlando and Tampa changes are where the knife really goes in. Seats that were at least competitive or lightly Democratic get completely reengineered into solid Republican territory, often by double digit swings. That is not a tweak, that is a transformation. But the tradeoff is that you are stretching your margins thinner everywhere else. You are counting on your voters to show up consistently in districts that are no longer blowouts, and that is where the risk creeps in. If turnout slips even a little, some of these engineered wins start to look a lot shakier. South Florida is the most interesting piece, because it is where the assumptions behind the map really get tested. The strategy is to break up a dense cluster of Democratic voters and isolate them into just a few seats, while turning longtime strongholds into competitive races. Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s district is the clearest example, going from safely blue to something that could genuinely flip. But that only works if the political coalitions in South Florida behave the way Republicans think they will. And that is a big if. The theory is that Latino voters in South Florida, especially Cuban, Venezuelan, and Colombian communities, will continue trending Republican, especially given recent foreign policy developments that resonate directly with those groups. If that holds, then this map could deliver exactly what it is designed to do. But if there is even a modest snapback, or if Democratic enthusiasm spikes the way it sometimes does in midterms without Trump on the ballot, then those same districts could turn into real problems. Because the energy question cuts both ways. Republicans may like how the map looks, but Democrats in Florida are fired up in a way that is hard to ignore. These are high turnout voters, especially older ones, and they do not need much motivation to show up. When you combine that with districts that have been made more competitive by design, you end up with a map that is not just aggressive, but potentially volatile. On top of all of that is the legal question, which is not trivial. Florida technically has rules against partisan gerrymandering, and while the state can argue that this is just a neutral redraw, that argument is going to get tested. If the courts decide this crosses the line, then the entire map could get thrown into uncertainty at the worst possible time for Republicans. So I keep coming back to the same thought. This is a high risk, high reward play. If everything breaks right, Republicans net multiple seats and strengthen their position heading into the midterms. But if even a few assumptions go wrong, turnout, demographics, or the courts, then what looks like a masterstroke could end up being a self inflicted problem. Chapters 00:00:00 - Intro 00:02:16 - Florida’s Redistricted Map 00:21:43 - Update 00:22:51 - House Republicans 00:26:05 - Texas Senate Race 00:29:31 - Iran 00:35:17 - Kirk Bado on His Correspondents’ Dinner Experience 01:23:16 - Final Thoughts and Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

    1h 32m

  8. APR 26

    Another Assassination Attempt Ends the White House Correspondents' Dinner Early

    An assassination attempt at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner turned what is usually a choreographed, slightly self-congratulatory night into something much more serious, very quickly. I had been at the Washington Hilton earlier, and what stood out in retrospect was how ordinary the setup felt. Security was clearly tight around the ballroom itself, but the rest of the hotel operated like a normal venue, with people moving in and out of the lobby without much friction. That gap matters, because it helps explain how someone armed could even get close enough to force a response from Secret Service. He never reached the inner event, but the fact that he got as far as he did cuts through the illusion that these environments are fully locked down. It’s tough to dismiss this as a one-off. The rhetoric outside the event was already intense, with protesters framing politics in absolute, existential terms. When that becomes the baseline, it is not surprising that someone eventually acts on it. This is not the first attempt tied to Trump, and unfortunately, it wouldn’t surprise me if it weren’t the last. Even if the immediate danger was contained, the pattern itself is the more unsettling part, because it suggests a level of volatility that is not going away anytime soon. Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. I left before everything happened and walked over to the Substack party, which ended up being chaotic in a completely different way. Because of the lockdown around the Hilton, a lot of people never made it over, so the party had this strange half full energy. Plenty of space, plenty of chatter, but also the sense that something had already gone off script for the night. That mood did not last long, because it quickly turned into its own kind of spectacle when Michael Tracy confronted Julie K. Brown over claims about Epstein related reporting. What followed felt less like a serious dispute and more like a live action version of internet drama. Voices went up, Jim Acosta jumped in loudly, and suddenly a party conversation turned into a full scene with security stepping in. Tracy was eventually asked to leave, and that was that. Compared to what had just happened across town, it was trivial, but it also captured something real about the media world, where personal grudges and public arguments can spill over at any moment. Taken together, the night swung between genuinely dangerous and strangely ridiculous, which feels like a pretty accurate snapshot of the current political environment. Chapters00:00 - Intro 01:23 - Trump Assassination Attempt 06:29 - Substack Party This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

    21 min
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About

Unbiased political analysis the way you wish still existed. Justin Robert Young isn't here to tell you what to think, he's here to tell you who is going to win and why. www.politicspoliticspolitics.com

Information

  • Creator
    Justin Robert Young
  • Years Active
    2015 - 2026
  • Episodes
    399
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Justin Robert Young
  • Show Website
    Politics Politics Politics

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