NAB Morning Call

Phil Dobbie
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Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  1. 11h ago

    Oil slump, RBA hike and Republicans on the ropes

    Tuesday 3rd November 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Phil and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril analyse a sharp drop in oil prices after reports surfaced that US President Trump is pursuing diplomatic de-escalation over Iran. That’s spurred a broader risk-on tone across financial markets, driving sovereign bond yields lower and boosting European and broad US equities, even as technology stocks lagged on persistent AI capex caution and pre-earnings nerves ahead of Apple’s results. Domestically, the spotlight turns to today’s Melbourne Cup Day RBA meeting, where markets widely anticipate a 25-basis-point cash rate increase following last week’s sticky Q3 trimmed mean inflation print, even as building approvals data highlights mounting headwinds across the residential construction sector. Meanwhile, political focus intensifies around the US midterm elections, with polling pointing to an altered legislative landscape in Washington. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  2. 1d ago

    Beyond tomorrow, does the RBA have further to go?

    Monday 2nd November 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Phil talks to NAB’s Sally Auld about Friday’s tech rout and tomorrow’s Melbourne Cup rate rise from the RBA. Ahead of the decision, new data from Cotality shows capital city dwelling values fell 1.4% in October—accelerating across previously heated property markets like Brisbane and Perth as cyclical rate pressures intersect with federal property tax reforms. Globally, markets digest the Bank of Japan’s hawkish pause, softer official Chinese manufacturing PMIs, widening French sovereign bond spreads, and the looming risk of the upcoming US midterms alongside central bank rate decisions from the Bank of England and the Riksbank. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  3. 4d ago

    Can the Euro Survive Europe's Supply-Side Crisis? Paul Mortimer-Lee on France, Debt, and the ECB

    Friday 30th October 2026 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Phil speaks with Paul Mortimer-Lee, Research Fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and former Bank of England forecasting head, to examine the deepening fiscal strain across Europe and determine whether France or the UK is in a more dangerous position. Paul argues that France is caught in a structural spending trap—with government outlays at an eye-watering 57% of GDP and political fragmentation making deficit reduction nearly impossible—leaving markets to rely on the moral hazard of an eventual European Central Bank intervention, even if its untested Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) faces legal and political hurdles. By contrast, while the UK’s Autumn Budget deferred meaningful consolidation via a "flotilla of small measures" amid rising debt-servicing costs and overambitious welfare dependency, London’s independent currency and floating exchange rate mean market discipline bites faster, whereas France lacks an exchange rate valve to offset its competitiveness gap against the rest of Europe. With Germany’s constitutional debt brake hampering broader continental growth and bond markets demanding higher risk premiums, Paul reckons that French 10-year yields could surge another 100 basis points and provoke banking contagion before European policymakers reluctantly to step in. But beyond that, does this point to an instability that the Euro - or the ECB – can’t survive? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    Can the Euro Survive Europe's Supply-Side Crisis? Paul Mortimer-Lee on France, Debt, and the ECB

  4. 4d ago

    AI Eats its Own

    Friday 30th October 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Phil and NAB’s Gavin Friend explore a risk-off session across equity markets triggered by a fresh wave of artificial intelligence anxiety following Alphabet’s quarterly earnings. Alphabet tumbled nearly 13%—marking one of the largest single-day market-cap wipeouts on record—as investors grew alarmed by ballooning AI capital expenditure running alongside signs that conversational AI search tools are beginning to cannibalise its core advertising revenue. The resulting tech sell-off pulled the Nasdaq down 1.5% and overshadowed otherwise robust US macroeconomic data, which saw Q3 GDP beat expectations at an annualised 3.4% and personal consumption rise 3.8% despite core PCE edging up to 3.1%. In Europe, the ECB held its policy rates steady as expected, but Christine Lagarde was sounding hawkish in the press conference, as well as announcing he will step down early as ECB President in February 2027 to freely voice her views on broader European issues, including the French debt crisis. Meanwhile, bond yields edged lower in safe-haven trades, oil prices retreated below US$115 per barrel for Brent, and the Australian dollar slipped back towards 70.3 US cents as markets await the Bank of Japan's rate decision. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  5. 5d ago

    Dovish Fed, RBNZ's Surprise and NAB's New Rate Call

    Thursday 29th October 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Phil Dobbie and NAB’s Ray Attrill unpack a frantic 24 hours of central bank decisions, domestic inflation data, and shifting rate calls. Global bond yields plunged—led by a sharp 8-basis-point drop in US two-year Treasury yields—after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a surprisingly dovish tone during his post-FOMC press conference, suggesting inflation medicine is taking effect and casting doubt on a December hike, whilst holding rates steady today. In Wellington, the RBNZ delivered a major shock by voting 4–3 to hold rates on hold rather than deliver a widely priced hike, sending the Kiwi dollar sliding 1%, while the Bank of Canada moved in the opposite direction with a 25-basis-point increase. Domestically, with Australian Q3 trimmed mean CPI printing at a sticky 1.0% quarter-on-quarter (4.3% year-on-year) alongside hawkish parliamentary testimony from Governor Michele Bullock, NAB has officially updated its forecast to call for an RBA rate hike on Melbourne Cup Day next week. Meanwhile, Brent crude edged back above US$115 a barrel amid ongoing Middle East tensions, French bond spreads continued to widen, and equity markets braced for high-stakes post-market earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  6. 6d ago

    Australian CPI to put RBA on a Knife-Edge

    Wednesday 28th October 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Phil and NAB's Skye Masters break down a risk-on session across global equity markets set against a tense, pivotal day for monetary policy. Wall Street rallied—led by a 2.2% surge in the Nasdaq and broad tech strength—fuelled by news of mega-cap chip-financing deals and solid US consumer confidence readings. The primary focus, however, turns squarely to domestic macro data, with Australian Q3 CPI arriving today. With markets pricing in roughly a 60% probability of an RBA rate hike on Melbourne Cup Day, Skye explains why NAB sees downside risks to the consensus 1.0% trimmed mean expectation. Across global central banks, attention turns to meetings for the RBNZ, Bank of Canada, and the FOMC, alongside the delivery of the UK budget. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  7. Oct 26

    Tech Rallies on Anthropic IPO Plans as Brazil Reprices and Oil Holds Firm

    Tuesday 27th October 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Phil and NAB's Rodrigo Catril unpack a choppy overnight session marked by major political shifts, geopolitical tension, and resilient tech sentiment. Brazilian markets faced sharp domestic repricing after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a runoff victory, while geopolitical attention turns to the neck-and-neck Israeli elections. On Wall Street, equities pushed higher—led by a broad-based rally across technology and semiconductors following news of Anthropic's planned public listing—even as investors keep a cautious eye on upcoming earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon alongside the FOMC meeting. In bond markets, French 10-year yields tightened 12 basis points against German Bunds following Moody's decision to hold France's sovereign rating steady, while Brent crude remains elevated above USD$115/bbl amid ongoing Middle East security risks. Closer to home, the Australian dollar held firm above 70 US cents as markets await crucial domestic Q3 CPI figures to gauge whether or not the RBA's rate-hiking cycle is over, or at least delayed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  8. Oct 25

    The most critical week of the year so far?

    Monday 26th October 2026 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Phil talks to NAB’s Ken Crompton at the start of what is set to be one of the most critical weeks of the year for global financial markets. Investors face a relentless barrage of catalysts: five major central bank meetings (including the RBNZ, Bank of Canada, FOMC, ECB, and the Bank of Japan), high-stakes quarterly earnings from Big Tech giants like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon, the Israeli national election, and the looming shadow of next week’s US midterms. Oil prices broke through the USD$117/bbl mark on Friday as geopolitical tensions flared across the Middle East, while flash PMIs revealed unexpected resilience in the UK and steady momentum in the US alongside mounting cost pressures. Domestically, the Australian dollar pushed above 70 US cents ahead of this week’s critical Q3 Australian CPI release, which follows hawkish rhetoric from RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter on 60 minutes last night, leaving market expectations split on a potential Melbourne Cup Day rate hike. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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About

Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Information

  • Creator
    Phil Dobbie
  • Years Active
    2016 - 2026
  • Episodes
    1.7K
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © All rights reserved
  • Show Website
    NAB Morning Call

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