RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness North America

RaboResearch F&A
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Rabobank's RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness team has 85 analysts working in local teams across the worldwide Rabobank network. They generate knowledge, and develop views and insights on businesses, topics and developments in the food & agribusiness sectors across the globe. All analysts have their own sector specialisations—ranging from meat and fish to dairy, vegetables, fruit and floriculture, coffee and cocoa. Please read our disclaimer here: https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/footer/disclaimer.html

  1. Fertilizer markets under pressure: tight supply, softer prices, and a shifting outlook

    1d ago

    Fertilizer markets under pressure: tight supply, softer prices, and a shifting outlook

    In our latest episode, Sam Taylor, Farm Inputs Analyst with RaboResearch, is joined by Justin Ratcliffe, Principal Analyst for Fertilizers at CRU North America, to explore the near-term outlook for global fertilizer markets. Justin leads CRU's North American fertilizer coverage, focusing on pricing, market intelligence, and strategic insights across nitrogen, phosphates, and potash. Geopolitical disruptions and shifting trade flows continue to shape markets, while affordability pressures and evolving supply dynamics are driving divergence across nutrients. Nitrogen prices have softened amid strong imports and cautious demand, while phosphate markets remain constrained by tight supply and elevated sulfur costs. The discussion highlights how these dynamics are creating ongoing volatility and uncertainty, with implications for global agricultural productivity over the next 12–24 months. Time stamps 00:00 – Welcome and introduction 02:30 – Nitrogen reset: geopolitics, supply influx, and demand hesitation drive price correction 12:25 – Nitrogen price outlook 13:50 – Phosphates: tight supply vs. affordability constraints 19:35 – China and supply risk: export uncertainty and tight sulfur supplies 27:25 – Potash: stability and affordability support steady demand 30:00 – Forward risks: policy shifts and "black swan" events with limited market impact amid growing resilience 33:30 – Closing remarks and Kansas City BBQ If you have any questions you would like for us to consider, please send them to eric.gibson@raboag.com.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

    35 min
  2. Southern Hemisphere grain and oilseed June update: Skyrocketing production costs and El Niño uncertainty

    Jun 11

    Southern Hemisphere grain and oilseed June update: Skyrocketing production costs and El Niño uncertainty

    In this episode, members of the global RaboResearch team provide a brief update on grain and oilseed markets and production across some of the Southern Hemisphere's largest growing regions, including Australia, Southern and Southeast Asia, and South America. Amid ongoing concerns around the Iran conflict and its impact on energy and agricultural inputs, our analysts discuss how these pressures are affecting regional production and profitability, and how impacts may evolve into the second half of 2026. At the same time, the lingering threat of El Niño could introduce additional stress across key growing regions and global trade flows. These combined factors are already driving shifts in crop mix and planted area for the current season, with important implications for 2027 and beyond. Time stamps: 00:00 – Steve Nicholson, Head of North American Crops: Welcome. 00:32 – Vitor Cacula Pistoia, Senior Analyst – Grains & Oilseeds, Australia: Iran conflict impacts on inputs and diesel, margin pressure, and El Niño risk. 5:14 – Oscar Tjakra, Senior Analyst – Southern & Southeast Asia: Palm oil outlook, El Niño risk, and the Iran conflict's impact on Indian production. 11:13 – Marcela Marini, Senior Analyst – Grains & Oilseeds, South America: Brazil production outlook, cost pressures, and potential planted area adjustments. 18:00 – Wrap-up and conclusion Be on the lookout for our next episode, featuring regional updates for the Northern Hemisphere including China, Europe, and the US. If you have any questions you would like for us to consider in our discussion, please send them to eric.gibson@raboag.com. Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

    19 min
  3. US fertilizer supply and production dynamics with CRU Group's Chris Lawson

    Jun 1

    US fertilizer supply and production dynamics with CRU Group's Chris Lawson

    RaboResearch's Farm Inputs Analyst Sam Taylor discusses the ever-complex topic of US fertilizer supplies and production with CRU Group's Head of Market Intelligence, Chris Lawson. As farm profitability is reaching historic lows and inputs remain high, a great amount of attention has been placed on fertilizer's role in farm economics. With growing political pressures to increase self-sufficiency, a number of other barriers remain constant in the ability to significantly increase domestic production of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potash. In recent news, the Trump administration has announced efforts to drastically increase capabilities and support, aiming to lessen the demand for fertilizer imports by accelerating domestic capacity. At the same time, multiple input companies and other sources would suggest curtailment in domestic production is the short-term reality. Efforts to boost US fertilizer supply may have no choice but to rely on imports. However, opportunities exist with the right partners – namely the US' neighbors to the north and south. Chris Lawson serves as Head of Market Intelligence at CRU Group, providing pricing and consultancy guidance for the organization. With his Australian farming background, Chris is well-rooted in agriculture and understands the sector's cross-value chain needs. Time stamps: 1:38 – Introducing Chris Lawson, CRU Group 2:30 – Can the US realistically boost fertilizer production over the next two to three years? 4:10 – Why nitrogen is the best opportunity for the US to reduce its trade deficit on fertilizers 11:52 – Phosphates: production curtailment in the short-term, but what about long-term production in the US? 18:05 – Exploring raw materials outside of the US and potential alternatives for traditional mining sources 22:10 – Can strategic reserves offset the highs and lows of production and cost cycles? 24:50 – Strategic partnerships and trade are a necessary requirement to ensure input availability moving forward, particularly with potash 25:50 – North American solutions vs. exclusively US production and supply 28:00 – Wrap-up and conclusion If you have any questions you would like for us to consider in our discussion, please send them to eric.gibson@raboag.com.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

    30 min
  4. Crop Exchange: Introducing the show and our team, plus a conversation on Iran

    May 8

    Crop Exchange: Introducing the show and our team, plus a conversation on Iran

    Welcome back to the North America Agribusiness podcast channel. Did you miss us? We're starting up a new series, focused on production and markets for North American crops, ranging from commodities in the Midwest to specialty crops in California. In this episode, the RaboResearch North American Crops team discusses how the conflict in Iran is impacting global crop production – and what that means for North American agriculture. But first, we would like to introduce you to our team. Focusing on all things crops, from grains and oilseeds to stone fruits and berries, we bring current and timely insights along with in-depth overviews of the research we are conducting, as well as what we are hearing across the agri-food value chain. In today's episode, we are excited to introduce our six-member team and some of the research we're working on. Our team includes: Steve Nicholson, Head of Crops, North America David Magaña, Senior Fresh Produce and Tree Nut Analyst Sam Taylor, Executive Director, Farm Input Analyst Owen Wagner, Senior Grains and Oilseeds Analyst Al Griffin, Senior Data Analyst Eric Gibson, Crop Production Sustainability Analyst Over the coming weeks, we will further explore research topics ranging from the competitiveness of North American crops and value drivers to specialty crop opportunities and soil health. Check back every couple of weeks to see what our team and other members of RaboResearch have in store. Time stamps: 01:00 – Meet the North American RaboResearch Crops Team 12:45 – Research we are currently focusing on and will cover in future episodes 35:15 – Impacts of the Iran conflict on crop production and farm inputs in 2026 and into 2027 43:58 – Conclusion, until next time! If you have any questions you would like for us to consider in our discussion, please send them to eric.gibson@raboag.com.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

    45 min
  5. G&O global roundup

    07/01/2024

    G&O global roundup

    The RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness global grains and oilseeds team is back with an update on what's driving global markets and trade this summer.

    17 min
  6. Changes keep coming – A look at grain & oilseed markets across the globe

    04/25/2024

    Changes keep coming – A look at grain & oilseed markets across the globe

    Tune in as Rabobank's global team of grain & oilseed analysts join Global Strategist Steve Nicholson for their quarterly review of global G&O markets.

    56 min
  7. Chaos or clutter?

    12/29/2023

    Chaos or clutter?

    2023 ends and 2024 begins with an unusual number of unknowns in commodity markets and across the industry. RaboResearch grain & oilseed analysts Steve Nicholson, Andrick Payen, and Owen Wagner sort through the clutter and try to bring order to the year-end jumble. In the second half of the episode, Steve talks to Brazil-based RaboResearch farm inputs analyst Bruno Fonseca about one area that's actually more settled than a year ago – farm inputs.

    26 min
  8. Worldwide wrap-up

    12/18/2023

    Worldwide wrap-up

    Global Strategist for Grains & Oilseeds Steve Nicholson polls his colleagues around the globe for their thoughts on the biggest developments in the sector this year and what to watch for in the year ahead.

    1 hr
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4.7
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About

Rabobank's RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness team has 85 analysts working in local teams across the worldwide Rabobank network. They generate knowledge, and develop views and insights on businesses, topics and developments in the food & agribusiness sectors across the globe. All analysts have their own sector specialisations—ranging from meat and fish to dairy, vegetables, fruit and floriculture, coffee and cocoa. Please read our disclaimer here: https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/footer/disclaimer.html

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