#FactsMatter, the Citizens Research Council of Michigan podcast

Citizens Research Council of Michigan
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Podcast by Citizens Research Council of Michigan

  1. 22h ago

    What You Need to Know About the New Federal Scholarship Tax Credit

    In this week’s #FactsMatter podcast, Guy Gordon sat down with Research Director Craig Thiel to discuss a new federal scholarship tax credit created by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which could affect how Michigan families access educational opportunities. The credit allows taxpayers to redirect up to $1,700 of their federal income tax liability to Scholarship Granting Organizations (SGOs), which then distribute scholarships for private school tuition or certain public-school services. Thiel noted that Governor Whitmer has yet to decide whether Michigan will opt in to the federal program. If she does, Michigan will join 31 other states that have opted in and will need to quickly establish an administrative framework to license SGOs, conduct audits, and maintain eligibility lists. States must decide each year whether to opt in. Even with swift action, scholarships would likely not be distributed until the 2027–28 school year. How it Works Taxpayers can redirect up to $1,700 of their federal tax liability to Scholarship Granting Organizations (SGOs). SGOs then provide scholarships for private school tuition or for specific public-school services. Because eligibility is set at 300% of Area Median Income, more than 90% of Michigan students would qualify. In some counties, a family of four earning $450,000 would still qualify, while in others the threshold is closer to $250,000. The state’s role is administrative — licensing SGOs, auditing them, and ensuring compliance — but it cannot influence who receives scholarships. Legal questions remain due to Michigan’s constitutional ban on tax benefits for private education, even though the program uses federal funds. Lessons from Other States In most states, scholarship dollars primarily go to students already enrolled in private schools. Only a few states allow scholarships for public school students (e.g., Pennsylvania). In Ohio, only 3 of 72 SGOs serve public school students. Wealthier communities tend to benefit most because donors with higher tax liabilities give locally, and SGOs often support nearby schools. Why it Matters This program is not technically a voucher -- funds come from tax credits rather than direct appropriations -- but it functions like one: public dollars are redirected to private education through SGOs. It could reshape the relationship between public and private education in Michigan. This program offers donors a powerful new way to support educational opportunity — but Michigan’s participation and the program’s equity implications will require careful monitoring. Among the equity concerns Thiel raised is that wealthier counties may see higher donor participation, potentially widening disparities.

  2. Oct 13

    A Budget Shortfall, A Revenue Spike, and A Whole Lot of Uncertainty Ahead

    In this episode of #FactsMatter, host Guy Gordon reconnects with Bob Schneider, Senior Research Associate for State Affairs at the Citizens Research Council, for a timely update on Michigan’s budget outlook. Their July conversation (“The Budget That was Balanced – But Not Transparent”) warned of a potential “fiscal cliff” awaiting the next governor and legislature. With new revenue data now in hand, Schneider revisits the numbers—and the picture is more complicated than anyone expected. A Bigger‑Than‑Expected Budget Hole Schneider explains that Michigan was already facing a $523 million general fund shortfall heading into FY 2028, driven by rising Medicaid costs, state employee payroll increases, and a major shift in federal SNAP funding that requires the state to cover an additional $320 million in benefit costs. But the current budget funded two long-running programs, direct care worker wage supports and certified community behavioral health clinics, as one-time appropriations, despite their years of operation. If lawmakers want to continue them, they’ll need to restore $165 million in ongoing general fund support. Together, that pushes the projected shortfall toward a $700 million structural deficit. A Revenue Surprise—But Will It Stick? However, a new report from the House Fiscal Agency shows that September revenues came in much stronger than expected, with year-to-date General Fund revenue now $716 million above the level projected in the May estimates used to build the current budget. While Schneider calls it “a huge windfall,” he cautions that monthly revenue swings can be misleading. Some of the increase may simply reflect timing shifts, and it’s unclear whether the upward trend will carry into FY 2027 and FY 2028. The January Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference will be pivotal. If the revenue bump holds, it could ease the fiscal cliff. If not, the next administration will face tough choices. Structural Problems, Not One‑Time Fixes Schneider stresses that Michigan’s budget challenge is structural, not cyclical. Temporary fixes—such as last year’s reliance on Strategic Outreach and Attraction Reserve (SOAR) fund lapses—can patch a single year, but they don’t address the underlying imbalance. To stabilize the budget long‑term, policymakers will need to consider some combination of budget cuts or new revenue sources. Other external pressures: potential Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, tariff impacts on Michigan’s tourism economy, and the broader risk of a recession. Even if economists upgrade their revenue forecasts in January, any economic slowdown in 2027 or 2028 could undermine those projections. What Comes Next As Gordon puts it, lawmakers will enter January with a “fiscal knot” to untangle. The good news: they may have more tools than they did a few months ago. The bad news: the structural imbalance remains, and the next legislature will need to confront it head-on.

  3. Oct 5

    The Kids Are Alright: Youth Crime Trends in Detroit: What the Data Really Shows

    Detroit’s youth crime picture is far more stable — and far more encouraging — than recent headlines suggest. In a new #FactsMatter podcast conversation, Guy Gordon and Research Council Detroit Bureau Director Doug Ortiz unpack the data behind “teen takeovers” and youth crime trends. Ortiz discusses his recent Council Brief on youth crime trends in Detroit, focusing on how to interpret crime data accurately and how recent social phenomena—especially “teen takeovers”—fit into the broader picture. This is the Detroit Bureau’s Council’s fourth report in a series about crime in Detroit and across peer cities (identified in the first paper in the series). Future reports will examine the public safety budget, public safety policies, and differences in crime rates across the state, metro area, and neighborhoods. For this report, Ortiz and Gordon begin by noting a major challenge: crime data reported to the FBI is inconsistent across cities, making it difficult to benchmark Detroit against all its peers. As Doug explains, “some agencies aren't submitting data consistently” , which limits long-term comparisons. Concerns about “teen takeovers,” described as large youth gatherings in public spaces, often organized via social media, have grown in recent months, often amplified by media coverage. Yet the underlying data tells a different story. Detroit is not seeing a rise in youth crime, and long-term trends show meaningful, measurable progress. Although “teen takeovers” can be disruptive, they are not tracked as a crime category. Ortiz notes that no agency tracks teen takeovers themselves—only the crimes that may occur around them. As he puts it, “we don't have any data that tracks large gatherings of youth in public spaces” To assess their impact, Ortiz examined crimes most associated with youth behavior: aggravated assaults and larcenies among 10–19-year-olds. The findings are clear: Youth aggravated assaults have declined more than 60% since 2005. Detroit’s rate, once significantly higher, has now converged with peer cities like Cleveland and Milwaukee. Youth larceny rates have also fallen and remain consistently below those same peer cities. These declines persist even after adjusting for population, meaning they cannot be explained simply by fewer youth in the city. Data limitations remain — some cities do not consistently report to the FBI — but Detroit’s downward trend is unmistakable. The Sheffield administration has launched several youth-focused initiatives, including expanded recreation center hours, curfew enforcement, and the new Office of Youth Affairs. These steps demonstrate commitment, but research shows they are not sufficient on their own. Studies indicate that sports participation alone does not reduce delinquency. The strongest protective factors are family engagement, school support, and peer environments. Looking ahead, Ortiz said the Research Council will revisit the data when 2025 numbers are released to determine whether teen takeovers represent a meaningful shift or a media-driven narrative. This evidence underscores the importance of fact-based policymaking and sustained investment in the most effective, protective supports for Detroit’s youth.

  4. Sep 29

    Michigan’s Proposal 2 promises to “get money out of politics,” but what does it actually do?

    In this episode of the #FactsMatter Podcast, host Guy Gordon and Research Council analyst Karley Abramson break down the three major changes that would take effect if Michigan voters approve Proposal 2: expanded disclosure rules for modern digital ads, new contribution bans for large state contractors, and the more widely known prohibition on political donations from regulated utility companies. Abramson explains where Proposal 2 addresses real concerns, but only within narrow constitutional limits, and why some impacts may be smaller—or legally more vulnerable—than voters expect. They discuss how Proposal 2’s effects may be modest and that some parts may face legal challenges. Voters will ultimately weigh transparency and anti-corruption goals against free-speech concerns. For some, the vote may serve more as a protest statement than as a policy solution.

  5. Sep 22

    Article XII: What People Should Know Before Voting on a Con-Con

    Article XII of the Michigan Constitution governs how the Constitution can be amended or revised. In this episode of the #FactsMatter podcast, Eric Lupher and Guy Gordon focus on Article XII, examining whether Michigan’s current system makes constitutional change too easy or too hard and what issues might arise if voters approve a constitutional convention. Eric emphasizes that the constitution is “the people’s document,” but the process must strike a balance—accessible enough to enable meaningful change yet difficult enough to prevent outside interests from easily reshaping Michigan’s foundational rules. As he notes, Michigan has adopted 44 amendments since 1963. They discuss Michigan’s unusually accessible citizen-initiative process, which is among the easiest in the nation (only Oregon and California are easier), the narrow gap between statutory and constitutional signature thresholds, and the outsized role this plays in pushing groups to amend the constitution rather than pursue legislation. The conversation underscores why Michigan’s 16-year constitutional convention question exists and why the Citizens Research Council’s analyses remain essential, providing Michigan’s policymakers and citizens with the rigorous research needed to protect the integrity of the state constitution and to make informed decisions.

  6. Sep 18

    Article 11: What Michigan Could Rethink

    In this 13th episode of the #FactsMatter podcast on the Michigan Constitution—ahead of a statewide ballot question asking whether Michigan should hold a constitutional convention (con-con)—Guy Gordon and Eric Lupher explore how Article 11 governs public service, employee rights, compensation, impeachment, and ethics—and what could change if voters call a constitutional convention. What stays—and what is at stake Basic safeguards, such as oaths, terms of office, and limits on additional compensation, would likely remain. The real debate centers on civil service, bargaining rights, accountability, and ethics. Civil service and bargaining Michigan’s independent Civil Service Commission protects a merit-based workforce from patronage. A convention could preserve those constitutional safeguards, strengthen public employees’ bargaining rights, or grant lawmakers greater budgetary flexibility—the outcome would depend on who voters elect as delegates. Accountability gaps Outdated timing rules create conflicts between legislative budgeting and civil service pay decisions. Article 11 also leaves “civil officer” undefined and allows removed officials to seek office again. A convention could close both gaps. The strongest case for reform: ethics Michigan ranks near the bottom nationally in ethics and transparency. Stronger constitutional standards could tighten disclosure rules, curb the revolving door between lawmakers and lobbyists, and break the pattern of legislative gridlock—transforming public demand for reform into enforceable guardrails. The Citizens Research Council hopes this podcast series and the accompanying constitutional series of papers will help inform voters before November 3 on Proposal 1: whether to call a constitutional convention. The Research Council takes no position on whether to call a constitutional convention.

  7. Sep 18

    Article 11: What Michigan Could Rethink

    In this 13th episode of the #FactsMatter podcast on the Michigan Constitution—ahead of a statewide ballot question asking whether Michigan should hold a constitutional convention (con-con)—Guy Gordon and Eric Lupher explore how Article 11 governs public service, employee rights, compensation, impeachment, and ethics—and what could change if voters call a constitutional convention. What stays—and what is at stake Basic safeguards, such as oaths, terms of office, and limits on additional compensation, would likely remain. The real debate centers on civil service, bargaining rights, accountability, and ethics. Civil service and bargaining Michigan’s independent Civil Service Commission protects a merit-based workforce from patronage. A convention could preserve those constitutional safeguards, strengthen public employees’ bargaining rights, or grant lawmakers greater budgetary flexibility—the outcome would depend on who voters elect as delegates. Accountability gaps Outdated timing rules create conflicts between legislative budgeting and civil service pay decisions. Article 11 also leaves “civil officer” undefined and allows removed officials to seek office again. A convention could close both gaps. The strongest case for reform: ethics Michigan ranks near the bottom nationally in ethics and transparency. Stronger constitutional standards could tighten disclosure rules, curb the revolving door between lawmakers and lobbyists, and break the pattern of legislative gridlock—transforming public demand for reform into enforceable guardrails. The Citizens Research Council hopes this podcast series and the accompanying constitutional series of papers will help inform voters before November 3 on Proposal 1: whether to call a constitutional convention. The Research Council takes no position on whether to call a constitutional convention.

  8. Sep 11

    Detroit Leads on Property Crime: Larceny and Motor Vehicle Theft on the Rise

    In this episode, Guy Gordon talks with Doug Ortiz, Director of the Citizen Research Council’s Detroit, about Detroit’s property crime trends, specifically about larceny, motor‑vehicle theft, and why Detroit’s rates remain elevated. Ortiz’s analysis used FBI data and the Research Council's peer‑city benchmarking. Detroit’s property crime is down from the 1990s — but still higher than peer cities. They dig into FBI data, compare Detroit to six similar cities, and explore how poverty, unemployment, and income inequality drive crime trends. Ortiz explains why community‑based policing works, why tech tools like Project Green Light help but aren’t enough, and why benchmarking matters more than raw numbers. Detroit’s property crime has improved dramatically over decades, but peer cities have outpaced its progress. Benchmarking reveals gaps that absolute numbers alone obscure — especially in motor‑vehicle theft, which continues to shape quality of life, insurance costs, and regional perceptions. A clear, fact‑driven look at where Detroit stands — and where it needs to go.

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