Thoughts On Money [TOM]

Trevor Cummings
  • 5.0 (35)
  • Investing
  • Updated Biweekly

THOUGHTS ON MONEY [TOM] is a podcast looking at simple truths on money. Everything from budgeting to investing to decision making. A great place to come for answers to your personal financial questions or to spark thought on how to improve your financial life.

  1. 4d ago

    Profits: Vice or Virtue?

    This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/4hpwdik Brett Bonecutter hosts “Thoughts on Money” solo to discuss “Profits: Vice or Virtue?” inspired by David Bahnsen’s book and moral defense of profit amid renewed cultural debate over socialism versus capitalism. He argues free markets are not defensible because greed is useful, but because properly earned profit rewards value creation and serving others. He critiques conservatives for leaning on “greed is good” and notes socialists frame their case as empathy and equity versus capitalist greed, viewing free markets as manipulated and profit as exploitation. Bonecutter concedes profit can come from fraud, coercion, cronyism, or lack of competition, but defines virtuous profit as evidence of transformational value through voluntary exchange (illustrated with toothpaste). He says profit-seeking drives progress, competition and cooperation coexist, profit-and-loss signals resource allocation, profits act as a wealth engine, and this system best expands opportunity and addresses poverty without promising utopia. 00:00 Solo Intro and Theme 01:48 Thesis Profit as Virtue 03:27 Moral Framing of Socialism 05:51 Why Greed Argument Fails 10:12 Socialist View of Profit 15:19 Five Points Overview 15:24 Profit Creates Value 21:00 Progress Through Competition 28:04 Profit and Loss Signals 30:46 Wealth Engine Explained 32:43 Profits and Poverty 34:58 Closing Takeaways Links mentioned in this episode: http://thoughtsonmoney.com http://thebahnsengroup.com

  2. Sep 25

    Why Investors Underperform the Market

    This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/4hc81Qi Trevor Cummings hosts the Thoughts on Money (TOM) podcast with blog author Blaine Carver discussing why investors underperform market returns due to behavioral mistakes. Carver cites Morningstar data showing a 2016–2025 S&P 500 annual return of 9.9% versus 8.7% for the average dollar in U.S. mutual funds/ETFs, and a Dalbar 30-year study ending 2021 showing equity investors earning 7.13% versus 10.65% for the S&P 500, attributing the gap largely to poor timing decisions and performance chasing. They explain time-weighted versus dollar-weighted returns, then outline four biases: recency bias, prospect theory/loss aversion, herd bias, and self-deception. Carver suggests investors know their tendencies, follow a disciplined philosophy—highlighting dividend growth investing—and avoid interrupting compounding, and argues advisors can help reduce emotional errors and opportunity costs. 00:00 Welcome and Topic Setup 00:30 Defining the Behavior Gap 02:44 Time vs Dollar Returns 05:08 Bias One Recency Chasing 06:22 Heuristics and Randomness 11:22 Narratives Fuel Bubbles 14:06 Bias Two Loss Aversion 19:43 Bias Three Herd Mentality 25:00 Bias Four Self Deception 25:42 Self Deception Explained 26:08 Know Your Conflict Style 27:38 Marriage Mirrors Behavior 28:51 Specialists Beat Ego 30:51 Advisor Trust Framework 32:38 Investor Game Film 34:06 Time Horizon Advantage 36:12 Dividend Growth Discipline 37:48 Hulk Smash Mistakes 40:23 Dividends Over Drawdowns 42:52 Transparency And Report Cards 44:33 Why Hire An Advisor 46:55 Never Interrupt Compounding 47:38 Final Wrap And Call To Action Links mentioned in this episode: http://thoughtsonmoney.com http://thebahnsengroup.com

  3. Sep 18

    Good Company. Bad Stock.

    This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/4AhW7vM Trevor Cummings hosts Thoughts on Money with Brett Bonecutter and analyst Ishan Chhabra to discuss Chhabra’s article “Good Company, Bad Stock,” focusing on how a strong business can still be a poor investment when purchased at the wrong valuation. Using a Red Vines analogy and Walmart from 2000–2011, they show how high expectations (Walmart at ~44x earnings) can lead to weak stock returns (~1% annual) despite strong fundamentals (EPS compounding ~12%). They explain valuation tools—primarily P/E, but also EV/EBITDA, price to free cash flow, sales, and book—plus ways to benchmark multiples against a company’s history, competitors, and sector. The conversation covers earnings quality, share dilution, market “darlings,” value traps, and a quadrant framework balancing business quality vs expectation risk, with emphasis on dividend yield, payout ratios, dividend growth, capital allocation, and management credibility. 00:00 Podcast Introductions 00:20 Good Company Bad Stock 01:16 Candy Price Analogy 02:50 Walmart Valuation Lesson 04:58 Business vs Stock Results 06:06 Valuation Metrics Overview 07:28 Earnings Quality and PEs 11:19 Benchmarking Valuations 13:30 Market Sentiment and Re-Ratings 16:44 Client Psychology and Darlings 21:47 Treadmill and Value Traps 23:04 Restaurant Popularity Analogy 23:20 Popularity Changes Rules 23:52 Risk Quadrant Framework 25:11 High Quality Low Expectations 26:16 Dividend Due Diligence Metrics 28:32 Reading Management Signals 32:38 Explaining Valuation Simply 39:46 Cheap for a Reason 45:15 Wrap Up and Listener Call Links mentioned in this episode: http://thoughtsonmoney.com http://thebahnsengroup.com

  4. Sep 11

    The Risk of Taking Advice from Instagram

    This week's blogpost: https://bahnsen.co/4A77CpN Trevor Cummings hosts a Thoughts on Money podcast discussion with Blaine Carver and Brett Bonecutter on how modern environments—especially social media algorithms and targeted ads—shape financial decisions, using the Stanford Prison Experiment as an example of behavioral influence. They critique an Instagram “real estate guru” video promoting “regular rich” via two rules: pay off all debt (including a mortgage) and save $2 million, assuming an easy 10% return to generate $200,000 annually. The team argues this advice can be dangerous due to liquidity loss, opportunity cost, tax implications, sequence-of-returns risk, inflation, and unrealistic assumptions about consistent returns and diversification. They compare such simplified messaging to Dave Ramsey’s action-oriented psychology, discuss shortened attention spans, and warn that AI and social media provide influence without accountability, urging caution and personalized advice. 00:00 Welcome to TOM 00:30 Instagram Advice Risks 00:57 Targeted Ads and Listening 02:04 Stanford Prison Experiment 05:34 Social Media Influence 07:35 Doomscrolling Explained 07:48 Why I Quit Social Media 09:45 Influencers Without Accountability 12:04 Regular Rich Video Breakdown 14:50 Adjacent Truths in Finance 17:57 Dave Ramsey Comparison 19:26 Short Attention Span Dilemma 21:14 How to Assess Advice 23:19 Two Themes and Debt Rule 24:01 Mortgage Payoff Tradeoffs 24:59 Liquidity And Emergencies 26:00 Opportunity Cost Math 27:30 Tax Deductions And Incentives 27:51 The 10 Percent Return Myth 28:40 Sequence Risk And Inflation 29:58 Diversification And Trust Deeds 31:56 AI Advice And Prompts 36:29 AI In Client Relationships 44:22 Accountability And Role Models 46:59 Wrap Up And Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: http://thoughtsonmoney.com http://thebahnsengroup.com

  5. Aug 28

    Insurance Sales: Follow the Money

    This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/4xsigpq On the Thoughts on Money podcast, Trevor Cummings, Sarah Leitzke, and Blaine Carver discuss Sarah’s blog post inspired by “pearl party” videos and multi-level marketing, using them to frame a key consumer question in insurance: “How are you paid?” They outline three compensation models for people selling insurance: recruiting-focused, multi-level marketing-style setups; captive agents tied primarily to one carrier’s products; and broker-style access to many carriers. The group emphasizes that incentives drive behavior and product recommendations, notes that being paid is not inherently bad but should be transparent, and offers trust cues such as avoiding high-pressure sales tactics, false urgency, vague compensation explanations, and one-size-fits-all solutions while prioritizing client goals and alignment. 00:00 Welcome to TOM 00:22 Pearl Party Hook 01:28 Why We Watch 03:19 MLM Cautionary Tale 04:23 Follow the Money 07:05 Three Pay Models 07:32 Recruiter Agent Model 10:57 Lifestyle Pitch Videos 14:32 Captive Agent Explained 18:49 Open Architecture Benefits 29:10 Trust and Red Flags 35:06 Broker Model Options 39:00 Wrap Up and Contact Links mentioned in this episode: http://thoughtsonmoney.com http://thebahnsengroup.com

  6. Aug 21

    Is Gold a Good Investment?

    This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/46j36GM Host Blaine Carver interviews Brett Bonecutter about his article “Is Gold a Good Investment?” prompted by Rand Paul’s Fort Knox visit and frequent client questions about gold. They outline why investors are drawn to gold—perceived capital preservation, durability/rarity, mistrust of fiat currency and debasement, de-dollarization, and crisis “shock absorber” appeal—while noting gold’s short-term volatility. They discuss gold’s valuation challenge as a non-productive asset with demand largely driven by its role as a proxy for money, and argue gold tracks M2 money supply more than CPI inflation (World Gold Council cites only 16% of gold price variation explained by CPI). Historical math shows gold can outperform in certain periods, but long-term equities vastly outpace it (e.g., $100 in 1928 to 2025: gold ~$21k vs S&P with reinvested dividends ~$1.16M). They conclude heavy gold allocations generally don’t fit most goals due to opportunity cost, with only small allocations potentially tolerable. 00:00 Is Gold Worth It 00:58 Fort Knox Bond Story 03:45 Why Clients Ask 04:50 Gold Bug Intuitions 06:18 Capital Preservation Evidence 09:19 Durability Debasement De-Dollarization 12:12 Crisis Insurance Debate 14:24 Valuation Conundrum 19:02 Speculation And ETFs 22:53 M2 Versus Inflation 26:31 Just Do The Math 33:04 Volatility Correlation Costs 38:27 So Is Gold Good 44:53 Wrap Up And Outro Links mentioned in this episode: http://thoughtsonmoney.com http://thebahnsengroup.com

  7. Aug 14

    The NYC Pied-à-Terre Tax: Who Pays and Will It Happen?

    This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/4cmIBMV On the Thoughts on Money podcast, host Trevor Cummings speaks with New York-based Matthew Gregory and Brett Bonecutter about New York City’s proposed “pied-à-terre” tax—an annual surcharge on high-value properties not used as a primary residence, aimed largely at nonresidents. They discuss the controversial rollout, including a publicly released list of potentially affected owners and subsequent legal challenges focused more on process than policy substance. Matthew outlines mechanics such as different valuation thresholds for homes versus condos/co-ops, and surcharges applied to the full property value, which can be substantial. The group debates the policy’s murky goals, expected revenue reductions from exemptions and planning strategies (notably converting to rentals), market and migration effects, and the broader precedent of taxing behavior that other cities may watch closely. 00:00 Welcome to TOM 01:03 What Is Pied-à-Terre Tax 03:20 Rollout Reactions in NYC 05:44 What Problem It Solves 07:44 Posturing and Legal Fight 09:54 The Public List Controversy 11:47 How the Surcharge Works 13:16 Planning Around the Tax 14:03 Behavior Tax and National Stakes 16:31 Market Effects and Real Estate 19:51 Gaming Exemptions and Loopholes 25:24 Why It Feels Murky 28:14 Financial Planning Mindset 30:06 Precedent for Other Cities 32:55 Markets Price In Taxes 34:18 Final Thoughts and Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: http://thoughtsonmoney.com http://thebahnsengroup.com

  8. Aug 7

    When Should You Claim Social Security?

    This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/4bDXOsO Trevor Cummings hosts a Thoughts on Money podcast discussion with Blaine Carver and Brett Bonecutter about when to claim Social Security (62, 67, or 70), comparing the tradeoff between smaller checks for longer versus larger checks for fewer years, and emphasizing that psychology and personal priorities often drive the decision. They note Social Security provides about 45% of retirement income for the average American, outline benefit increases from delaying (6%–8% per year), and explain how expected portfolio returns shift break-even ages using a chart that incorporates longevity and rates of return. The episode covers key rules: benefits are based on 35 highest earning years, full retirement age is 67 for those born in 1960+, PIA as the baseline, spousal benefits (up to half a spouse’s benefit), survivor benefits—especially important for older higher-earning males—and taxation where up to 85% of benefits may be taxable. They also discuss Roth conversion interactions, a mortality spike at age 62 for men, the first Social Security recipient’s payout history, and note the Social Security Fairness Act repeal of WEP/GPO affecting some workers. 00:00 Podcast Introductions 00:23 Kids Race Analogy 01:40 Claiming Age Tradeoffs 02:26 Math Versus Psychology 05:10 Why Delay Benefits 07:30 Mortality Spike Discussion 10:34 Longevity And Affluence 12:18 Break Even Chart Explained 19:22 Utility Versus Maximizing 26:11 Social Security Basics 27:42 Spousal Benefit Basics 29:39 Claiming Rules and Retroactive Filing 30:27 How Social Security Is Taxed 33:11 Roth Conversions and Tax Planning 35:16 Fun Facts and Real World Nuances 38:07 Rate of Return vs Longevity Debate 42:59 Survivor Benefits for Couples 49:14 Fairness Act and Final Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: http://thoughtsonmoney.com http://thebahnsengroup.com

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About

THOUGHTS ON MONEY [TOM] is a podcast looking at simple truths on money. Everything from budgeting to investing to decision making. A great place to come for answers to your personal financial questions or to spark thought on how to improve your financial life.

Information

  • Creator
    Trevor Cummings
  • Years Active
    2019 - 2026
  • Episodes
    288
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Trevor Cummings All Rights Reserved
  • Show Website
    Thoughts On Money [TOM]

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