This episode features Andrea Lendewig, Head of Research & Development at IFCN, discussing her Real Science Exchange webinar presentation Global Dairy Market Status and 2035 Perspectives. Joining the conversation are Philipp Goetz, Head of Sales and Business Development at IFCN; Lucas Fess, Senior Dairy Analyst with Rabobank; and Jeremy Painter, Vice President of Global Commercial Operations for Animal Nutrition & Health at Balchem. Together, the panel examines current milk production trends, regional differences, butter and protein markets, exports, herd dynamics, and what the next decade may hold for global dairy. Andrea opens by outlining IFCN’s global dairy data network and explains how annual farm‑level data collection and monthly updates allow IFCN to monitor milk production, prices, and costs across major dairy regions. She highlights a major industry milestone: global milk production surpassing 1 billion tons, driven by growth across multiple regions. (04:40) The discussion then turns to recent production trends. The panel explains how the U.S. has shown consistent strength, while the EU experienced slower growth early before unexpected late‑season increases. China and parts of Latin America continue to grow production but remain dependent on international markets. Weather, animal health, and strong milk prices aligned to create production surprises in several regions. (17:30) Andrea and Lucas examine global milk price dynamics, focusing on the growing divergence between butter and cheese prices over the last decade. Butter prices have increasingly driven global milk price signals, influencing producer behavior and trade flows. One notable shift discussed is the U.S. becoming a net exporter of butter in 2025 after more than a decade as a net importer. (25:10) The panel also explores rising costs of milk production. IFCN data show that milk production costs have increased sharply over the last five years, with roughly 75% of countries now facing costs above $40 per hundredweight. These pressures are influencing farm investment decisions, particularly in regions with stricter environmental regulations. (28:30) Herd dynamics and beef‑on‑dairy economics are another key theme. Lucas and Jeremy describe how record beef prices have reshaped breeding decisions in the U.S., increased calf values, and encouraged producers to keep cows longer. This dynamic has contributed to U.S. herd growth and stronger-than-expected milk supply, raising the question of whether current production trends represent a new normal. (35:00) The conversation contrasts structural differences between Europe, and the U.S. European producers face tighter environmental regulations, land constraints, and aging farmer demographics, limiting expansion. In response, many EU farmers are diversifying income through solar energy, agri‑tourism, and land leasing rather than increasing milk output. Both IFCN and Rabobank suggest 2025 may represent peak milk production for the EU under current conditions. (45:00) Attention then shifts to exports and demand. Lucas outlines where U.S. dairy exports are growing—especially in Mexico, Asia, and emerging markets—and explains why exports will be critical as domestic consumption grows more slowly than production. The panel also discusses rising consumer interest in protein, from high‑protein milk and beverages to whey ingredients, and how this trend supports long‑term dairy demand. (51:00) Looking ahead to 2035, Andrea and Philip share IFCN’s long‑term outlook. The U.S. is expected to drive most global production growth, while Europe trends closer to self‑sufficiency and Oceania remains export‑focused. Demand growth—driven by population increases and more westernized diets in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East—is expected to outpace supply growth, supporting higher dairy prices over time. (57:30) In closing, the panel reflects on key takeaways: the importance of data‑driven decisions, diversification of farm income, continued productivity gains through genetics and technology, and strong long‑term fundamentals for dairy. While risks remain, the group agrees the global dairy sector is well positioned for the next decade. (01:02:00) Please subscribe and share with your industry friends. Invite more people to join us at the Real Science Exchange virtual pub table. Please be sure to register for our upcoming Real Science Lecture Series webinars. Finally, if you want one of our Real Science Exchange t-shirts, screenshot your rating, review, or subscription, and email a picture to anh.marketing@balchem.com. Include your size and mailing address, and we’ll mail you a shirt.
