Wheat Market Outlook

Sask Wheat
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Sask Wheat's weekly wheat market outlook analyzes domestic and global factors that impact wheat prices and market access for Saskatchewan wheat producers. As of Aug. 5, 2025, Ty Kehrig and Derek Squair of Exceed Grain Marketing provide a weekly report of the wheat market summary.

  1. 9h ago

    Wheat Market Outlook - October 5, 2026

    MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEATWheat markets enter the week with futures still struggling to build sustained upside, despite a somewhat more supportive physical backdrop. Canadian exports continue to run at a strong pace, while Black Sea logistics remain disrupted and uncertainty persists around the quality of the later-harvested Western Canadian crop. Harvest progress has improved substantially with drier weather, and many producers are now finishing or nearing completion, but the final distribution of grade, falling number, test weight and protein remains important. Producers are encouraged to have representative wheat samples tested as early as possible so we can identify the appropriate marketing programs and advance sales where opportunities exist. This is particularly important when building wheat into the overall farm marketing plan: cash-flow requirements, bin space and delivery logistics all need to be considered alongside opportunities in canola, pulses and other crops. Lower falling-number or downgraded wheat may need to fit into different end-user programs. Black Sea developments, Canadian quality results, export demand and Friday’s USDA WASDE will be the key market drivers this week. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUMThe durum market remains focused on quality and grade distribution. Overall, global durum supplies remain relatively comfortable, but uncertainty around the Canadian harvest has begun to create stronger interest in higher-quality milling durum, with St. Lawrence export values recently moving towards $335 as the export quote vs $300 early September. As more samples are graded, the spread between premium No. 1 and No. 2 CWAD and lower-quality supplies could become increasingly important. Producers with durum should test samples early and market higher-quality grain consciously rather than treating all durum inventory the same. Knowing protein, test weight, HVK and grade will help determine whether durum should be moved quickly for cash flow and logistics, placed into a specific buyer program, or held for potential quality premiums. With opportunities developing across several major Western Canadian crops, understanding exactly what quality is in the bin will be important in determining which commodity should be marketed next. If readers are interested in a comprehensive list of global report calendar. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

  2. Sep 28

    Wheat Market Outlook - September 28, 2026

    MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEATWheat markets enter the week under continued futures pressure despite a supportive physical backdrop. Black Sea exports remain heavily disrupted but growing diplomatic efforts toward a maritime truce are removing some geopolitical premium as the market weighs how quickly Russian export capacity could return. Western Canadian harvest remains well behind normal, although improved weather should allow strong progress this week, with grade and quality still the larger concern after earlier rainfall. At the same time, weak U.S. export demand and improving Australian production continue to limit upside. Black Sea negotiations, Canadian harvest quality and Wednesday’s USDA Grain Stocks and Small Grains reports will be the major sources of direction this week. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM The durum wheat market remains increasingly focused on quality rather than outright supply. Canada still carries relatively comfortable overall inventories, and global durum production is projected at a record level, limiting concerns around an outright shortage. However, Prairie harvest delays and quality deterioration have increased uncertainty around the availability of No. 1 and No. 2 CWAD, and Canadian domestic values for higher grades are beginning to reflect that tighter quality outlook. As more of the later-harvested crop is graded, widening spreads between premium milling durum and downgraded supplies could become an increasingly important market feature. Near-term direction will depend heavily on final Canadian grade distribution, export demand and how aggressively importers pursue higher-quality supplies. If readers are interested in a comprehensive list of global report calendar. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

  3. Sep 21

    Wheat Market Outlook - September 21, 2026

    Market Outlook - Wheat Wheat markets enter the week with geopolitical risk becoming an increasingly important source of support following the major Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow over the weekend and continued disruption to Black Sea shipping. Lower Russian and Ukrainian export forecasts are tightening readily available export supplies despite relatively comfortable global production. In Western Canada, Statistics Canada estimated the wheat crop at 36.1 MMT, but attention has shifted firmly toward quality as persistent rainfall continues to delay Prairie harvest and increase sprouting, test-weight and grade concerns. Saskatchewan remains only 32 per cent harvested versus the five-year average of 71 per cent. Black Sea developments and Canadian harvest quality will remain the major sources of direction this week. Market Outlook - Durum The durum market also remains increasingly focused on quality rather than outright production. Canada entered the crop year with a relatively comfortable 1.1 MMT of carry-in stocks, which limits concerns around an outright shortage. However, recent rainfall across major durum-growing regions has increased uncertainty around the percentage of the crop that will ultimately grade No. 1 and No. 2 CWAD. If additional downgrading is confirmed as harvest progresses, stronger premiums could develop for higher-quality durum even if total Canadian production remains adequate. Near-term direction will depend heavily on final grade.If readers are interested in a comprehensive list of global report calendar. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/ Read the full report: https://saskwheat.ca/wheat-market-outlook/wheat-market-outlook-september-21-2026/

  4. Sep 14

    Wheat Market Outlook - September 14, 2026

    MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT The latest WASDE increased global wheat production and ending stocks, but lower Russian and Ukrainian export forecasts, continue to tighten the outlook for readily available exportable wheat supplies. In Western Canada, the focus is increasingly shifting from total production toward grade, with recent rainfall raising quality concerns. A good stretch of warm, dry weather could still allow Prairie harvest to advance quickly, but further delays would increase quality risk. Statistics Canada’s production estimate, Canadian harvest progress and developments around Black Sea shipping are likely to drive direction this week. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM The durum market also remains increasingly focused on quality rather than outright production. Canada entered the crop year with a relatively comfortable 1.1 MMT of carry-in stocks, which limits concerns around an outright shortage. However, recent rainfall across major durum-growing regions has increased uncertainty around the percentage of the crop that will ultimately grade No. 1 and No. 2 CWAD. If additional downgrading is confirmed as harvest progresses, stronger premiums could develop for higher-quality durum even if total Canadian production remains adequate. Near-term direction will depend heavily on final grade.If readers are interested in a comprehensive list of global report calendar. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

  5. Sep 8

    Wheat Market Outlook - September 8, 2026

    MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEATWheat markets enter the week with a firmer underlying tone, but Western Canadian harvest quality is becoming an increasingly important source of direction. Widespread Prairie rainfall arrived with a large share of the spring wheat crop still standing, raising the risk of overall grading issues  including sprouting, falling-number issues and a wider grade spread if harvest delays persist. A meaningful deterioration in No. 1 and No. 2 CWRS availability could tighten the pool of exportable high-quality wheat and provide additional support to premiums even if overall production remains respectable. Black Sea and Sea of Azov shipping disruptions continue to underpin futures, although diplomatic regional powers are helping in negotiating some resolutions to the conflict. Stronger crop update from Australia ABARES provided a bit of a bearish offset although the increase in crop size estimates was largely expected, while U.S. spring wheat harvest results have generally been respectable. Over the next one to two weeks, Canadian protein, test weight, grade distribution and harvest progress should become increasingly representative and could have a larger influence on market direction than headline yield estimates alone. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Durum quality risk has moved to the forefront following widespread Prairie rainfall with a large share of the Western Canadian crop still standing. If prolonged harvest delays result in lower test weight, sprouting or a larger-than-expected share of No. 3 or lower and feed-quality durum, the market could tighten quickly for exportable No. 1 and No. 2 CWAD and materially shift otherwise comfortable durum fundamentals. For now, smaller North American production continues to be offset by improved crops and weaker import requirements across North Africa and Turkey, with IGC forecasting global production near 38.9 MMT and world trade at a five-year low. Early Saskatchewan yield indications have been coming in but from a relatively small sample size leaves us wanting to see a few more yield reports yet. Grade distribution and protein will be the key variables over the next two weeks. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

  6. Aug 31

    Wheat Market Outlook - August 31, 2026

    Market Outlook – Wheat Wheat markets enter the week with a firmer underlying tone after another strong move higher, although some of the recent geopolitical premium is being tested by reports that Turkey is working on a possible Black Sea grain corridor. Physical shipping disruptions through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov remain significant, while the broader global balance continues to tighten as major-exporter stocks decline. This is being partly offset by stronger crops in Turkey and North Africa and improving Australian production prospects. In North America, U.S. spring wheat harvest results have generally remained respectable, while Canadian harvest is beginning to accelerate after a slower-than-normal start. HRS wheat and durum yield, protein and grade results should become increasingly representative over the next one to two weeks, making western Canadian harvest results a major source of direction. Near-term upside will depend on whether Black Sea disruptions persist, while improving Canadian harvest progress and any meaningful improvement in export logistics could return some pressure to futures. Market Outlook – Durum Durum markets remain largely rangebound, with smaller North American crops continuing to be offset by improved production and weaker import requirements across North Africa and Turkey. IGC forecasts global durum production at 38.9 MMT, including approximately 6.3 MMT in Canada and 1.8 MMT in the U.S., both below last year, but stronger crops in Morocco, Algeria and Turkey are expected to push world trade to a five-year low. Western Canadian harvest is beginning to advance after a slow start, and durum yield, protein, test weight and grade results should become increasingly representative over the next one to two weeks. With major exporter stocks still relatively tight, disappointing Canadian quality or yields could strengthen premiums, but a solid Prairie harvest combined with subdued importer demand would likely keep values contained in the near term. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

  7. Aug 24

    Wheat Market Outlook - August 24, 2026

    Market Outlook - Wheat Wheat markets enter the week with a firmer underlying tone as tightening supplies among major exporters and continued disruption to Black Sea and Sea of Azov shipping provide support. The latest IGC outlook points to smaller crops across Canada, the U.S., Europe and Australia, while major exporter wheat stocks are expected to fall sharply year-over-year. This is being partly offset by larger crops in North Africa and Turkey. In North America, early U.S. spring wheat harvest results have generally been respectable, while Canadian harvest remains in the early stages with producers still focused largely on peas, lentils and barley. HRS wheat and durum harvest should begin making more meaningful progress this week, making Canadian yield, protein and quality results increasingly important. Near-term direction will largely depend on whether Black Sea disruptions persist and whether Canadian harvest results confirm current production expectations, with advancing harvest pressure likely to limit upside if both develop favourably.Market Outlook - Durum Durum markets remain relatively rangebound, with tighter North American production being offset by larger crops and weaker import demand anticipated across North Africa and Turkey. IGC now forecasts global durum production at 38.9 MMT, down 0.6 MMT from July, including 6.3 MMT in Canada and 1.8 MMT in the U.S., both lower year-over-year. However, improved crops in Morocco, Algeria and Turkey are expected to reduce global trade the lowest in five years, limiting the need for aggressive importer buying. Western Canadian harvest remains in the very early stages, with producers still focused largely on peas, lentils and barley, but durum harvest should begin making more meaningful progress this week. Yield, protein, test weight and grade distribution will become increasingly important, particularly as major-exporter durum stocks remain relatively tight despite comfortable global inventories. Disappointing Canadian yields or quality could strengthen premiums, while a solid Prairie harvest combined with subdued North African demand would likely keep prices contained for the time being. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

  8. Aug 17

    Wheat Market Outlook - August 17, 2026

    MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat markets enter the week with a firmer underlying tone as Black Sea and Sea of Azov shipping disruptions continue to add risk to global trade, while North American harvest begins to provide a clearer picture of actual production. Early U.S. spring wheat results have generally been respectable, limiting concern despite weaker late-season crop ratings. Canadian harvest is just beginning, with more consistent yield and quality reports expected over the next ten days as relatively dry weather returns across much of the southern Prairies following weekend rainfall. European wheat losses are increasingly understood by the market, while recent Australian rainfall has reduced some immediate production risk. Overall, harvest pressure should become more influential as supplies move into commercial channels, but continued Black Sea disruptions or disappointing North American yield and quality results could provide further support. AAFC’s August 20 outlook and early Canadian harvest results will be the next important sources of direction or if there are any meaningful changes to the Sea of Asov / Black Sea situation. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Durum markets remain largely rangebound, although the North American supply outlook has become somewhat more supportive. USDA now estimates U.S. durum production at 66.4 million bushels, down 23 per cent from last year. Canadian production prospects remain comparatively favourable, keeping broader supply concerns limited for now. Western Canadian harvest is just beginning, and more consistent durum yield and quality reports should emerge over the next ten days as harvesters move through southern areas. The market will be particularly focused on protein, test weight and grade distribution. Softer North African import demand continues to limit upside, but disappointing Canadian yields or quality could quickly strengthen premiums as harvest progresses.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

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Sask Wheat's weekly wheat market outlook analyzes domestic and global factors that impact wheat prices and market access for Saskatchewan wheat producers. As of Aug. 5, 2025, Ty Kehrig and Derek Squair of Exceed Grain Marketing provide a weekly report of the wheat market summary.

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  • Creator
    Sask Wheat
  • Years Active
    2021 - 2026
  • Episodes
    283
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    Clean
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    © Sask Wheat
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    Wheat Market Outlook

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