Wheat Market Outlook

Sask Wheat
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Sask Wheat's weekly wheat market outlook analyzes domestic and global factors that impact wheat prices and market access for Saskatchewan wheat producers. As of Aug. 5, 2025, Ty Kehrig and Derek Squair of Exceed Grain Marketing provide a weekly report of the wheat market summary.

  1. 2d ago

    Wheat Market Outlook - July 20, 2026

    Market Outlook - Wheat Wheat markets enter the week trading Black Sea shipping disruptions, reduced European production expectations and perception of tightening global ending stocks, although favourable initial harvest results in Russia and eastern Ukraine continue to limit the upside. Restrictions through the Don-Azov Channel and Kerch Strait added a logistical risk premium during last week’s rally, while the strike on a merchant vessel near Odessa reinforced concerns around Black Sea export reliability. June heat also reduced wheat yield potential across parts of western and central Europe, prompting haircuts to EU production estimates. The July IGC report left global wheat production unchanged near 821 MMT and ending stocks slightly down near 279 MMT. Attention now turns to this week’s U.S. spring wheat tour for updated yield indications across the northern Plains. Western Canadian conditions remain favourable in general, but uneven, with excessive moisture creating localized acreage and yield losses across eastern Saskatchewan, Manitoba and northern Alberta, while stronger crops are developing across much of the southern and western Prairies.Market Outlook - Durum Durum markets remain largely rangebound as smaller North American acreage is being offset by generally favourable crop conditions and softer import demand expectations from North Africa. The USDA and Statistics Canada acreage reports confirmed reduced durum area, but the cuts were widely anticipated and did not materially tighten the market outlook. Moisture across the northern U.S. Plains and the Canadian Prairies has generally supported yield potential, with Saskatchewan and Alberta durum conditions remaining favourable overall despite localized excess moisture concerns. Canadian durum exports through Week 49 reached 5.44 MMT, only 1 per cent below last year, showing that demand has remained steady into the end of the current crop year. However, larger North African harvests are expected to reduce near-term import requirements from Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. A strong Western Canadian crop would likely keep prices muted into early winter, with the next meaningful direction dependent on final Canadian and U.S. production, quality results and the outlook for the next North African growing season. Our updated Canadian durum supply-and-disposition estimates are provided below.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

  2. Jul 13

    Wheat Market Outlook - July 13, 2026

    Market Outlook - Wheat Wheat markets are focused on the following factors to begin the week: The Western Canadian crop, shipping disruptions through the Sea of Azov, and the smaller global ending stocks reported in the latest USDA update. Excess moisture across parts of Saskatchewan, Manitoba and northern Alberta is creating uncertainty around eventual acreage and yield losses, although cereals such as wheat, durum and oats are generally faring better than canola and pulses, while some strong crops are developing across the southern Prairies. Restrictions affecting grain movement through the Kerch Strait and Sea of Azov have added a logistical risk premium to wheat, but expectations for a promising Black Sea harvest continue to limit the upside if shipping disruptions do not persist. European heat has increasingly become a corn and summer-crop story, while U.S. heat is supporting corn and soybeans on fields that entered the period with generally adequate moisture, leaving wheat more likely to follow any broader corn rally in the near term. Prairie producers should use improvements in local basis or futures to finish old-crop wheat sales and create space before new-crop supplies begin arriving for the upcoming harvest, while remaining patient on stronger new-crop commitments until the Western Canadian production outlook becomes clearer.Market Outlook - Durum The durum outlook remains mostly flat. The USDA Acreage Report and Statistics Canada acreage estimates confirmed smaller North American durum area, but the reductions were broadly anticipated and did not provide a major shock to the market. The northern U.S. durum region and Canadian prairies durum region has received generally favourable moisture, supporting crop prospects and limiting immediate production concerns. At the same time, large harvests across North Africa are expected to reduce import demand from Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria, with purchasing likely to reflect the greater domestic supplies available in those countries. A large Western Canadian crop would keep durum values muted into early winter, at least until the market gains a clearer understanding of U.S. durum supplies and the production outlook for the next North African crop. Our updated Canadian durum supply-and-disposition estimates are provided below.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

  3. Jul 6

    Wheat Market Outlook - July 6, 2026

    Market Outlook – Wheat Some weather stories are showing themselves across the global wheat production regions but not enough to get markets overly excited. We have the EU heatwave which is turning into more of a corn story than a wheat story, we have the U.S. heatwave this week but on fields that have received ample rainfall and we have the Western Canadian flooding story that is yet to be fully understood how that will shake out in terms of acreage loss. The Black Sea wheat harvest is expected to be quite promising, and markets are in general satisfied with the current position of crops. Wheat has benefited today from the rise in corn values for the session and wheat markets would be more likely to ride the coattails of any Midwest corn story for the short term. Old crop wheat sales for prairie producers will need to be wrapped up to make room for the new crop coming online in 6-7 weeks. Producers should take advantage of any local bumps in basis and futures to ease out the old crop. We are still waiting to see how the new crop shapes up before making any strong commitments.   Market Outlook – Durum Durum outlook remains mostly flat. The USDA Acreage report and Stats Canada report did not provide much of a shock of the market as acreage cuts were anticipated, but how much was the question. U.S. northern durum region has been getting good moisture. North African harvest is large and import demand is going to directly reflect the larger supplies available to Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria. A large Western Canadian crop would keep durum markets muted into early winter at least until we have an idea on what prospects are for the next North African crop harvest or depending on U.S. durum supplies moving forwards.  Updated Supply and Disposition estimates below. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

  4. Jun 29

    Wheat Market Outlook - June 29, 2026

    Market Outlook - Wheat EU heat has taken the top end off yield ideas, Canadian excess moisture is becoming a more legitimate production and quality risk, and tomorrow’s Statistics Canada and USDA acreage report will provide fresh fundamental data points. Markets are comfortable right now with the current state of the crops across the United States and Black Sea region. Good rainfall has been hitting some of the drier areas of Montana and North Dakota which would be bumping yield prospects in those key wheat production regions of the United States. EU harvest prospects have had their top end yield removed but the heat wave's lateness in the crop's lifecycle has the market of belief that the timing will not degrade yield as much as if it would have if the heatwave began in May. As for Canada, we are reporting improving old crop basis levels for wheat as the Canadian market remains at the $8.00 region central Sask, meanwhile futures have fallen from their May highs. Wheat markets will be watching for any major changes in tomorrow's USDA or StatsCan reports.Market Outlook - Durum Durum outlook remains mostly flat. This market will be watching tomorrow’s StatsCan report closely. The U.S. northern durum region has been getting good moisture. The North African harvest is large and import demand is going to directly reflect the larger supplies available to Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria. A large Western Canadian crop would keep durum markets muted into early winter, at least until we have an idea on what prospects are for the next North African crop harvest or depending on U.S. durum supplies moving forward.  If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

  5. Jun 22

    Wheat Market Outlook - June 22, 2026

    Market Outlook - Wheat Wheat markets are pricing in good supply for the upcoming Canadian crop despite the challenges being noted in pockets of the Canadian prairies related to excess moisture. We will have Canadian acreage report on June 30, 2026, which will be highly anticipated by the markets as it gives the trade some fresh fundamentals to place positions on and allows some further number crunching on what could be available to the market overall from the Canadian and United States crops. U.S. spring wheat conditions are improving slightly which has been keeping the markets satisfied. 55 per cent of the U.S. spring wheat crop as of June 14, 2026, was Good to Excellent, up from 52 per cent week prior. Next report out later today. Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat futures have been subject to fund repositioning since mid-May as the market became comfortable with crop production potential. The EU crop is largely understood, and the Black Sea crops are closer to being made than not. We are anticipating flat spring wheat markets unless a true weather story does develop but markets are satisfied with their current supplies for new crop.Market Outlook - Durum Durum outlook remains mostly flat. Saskatchewan durum is currently rated 89 per cent good to excellent in the last report, which keeps the market comfortable with Canadian crop prospects for now. The U.S. durum region listed with 57 per cent of the crop area now listed in drought, 55 per cent last week and 39 per cent the year prior. North African harvest is large and import demand is going to directly reflect the larger supplies available to Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria. A large Western Canadian crop would keep durum markets muted into early winter, at least until we have an idea what prospects are for the next North African crop harvest or depending on U.S. durum supplies moving forwards. We are watching more closely now how the North American crop shapes up and what did end up seeded when the June 30, 2026, report is released.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

  6. Jun 15

    Wheat Market Outlook - June 15, 2026

    MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEATThe market is generally satisfied with the Canadian and global crop for now. Limited drought or general weather concerns for most of the Canadian Prairies. The market is pricing in good supply for the upcoming Canadian crop despite the challenges being noted in east central Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba production regions. Peace region of Alberta has been on the dry side, and we need to keep focus on this area as well. The crop is still very early in Western Canada and needs to get through the next six to eight weeks of weather. We will have a Canadian acreage report on June 30, 2026, which will be highly anticipated by the markets as it gives the trade some fresh fundamentals to place positions on. Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat futures have been subject to fund repositioning since mid-May as the market became comfortable with crop production potential. The EU crop is largely understood, and the Black Sea crops are closer to being made than not. The market will maintain focus on these regions as they get closer to harvest but the focus will be on Canadian, Northern U.S., Argentinian and Australian growing conditions from here on out as those crops have the most growing season ahead of them yet. We would anticipate flat wheat markets for the time being and a weather event will be the catalyst to move the wheat futures markets. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Durum outlook remains mostly flat. Saskatchewan durum is currently rated 90 per cent good-to-excellent in the last report, which keeps the market comfortable with Canadian crop prospects for now. The U.S. durum region listed with 55 per cent of the crop area now listed in drought, 55 per cent last week and 41 per cent the year prior. Morocco placed 170 per cent durum import tariff from June 1, 2026, until the end of July is also a negative demand factor, as it will support local marketing of their large harvest and limit nearby import demand and a signal of the large Northern African harvest overall. A large Western Canadian crop would keep durum markets muted into early winter at least until we have an idea on what prospects are for the next North African crop harvest. Limited upside seen at this time. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

  7. Jun 8

    Wheat Market Outlook - June 8, 2026

    Market Outlook - Wheat Wheat markets saw a major selloff this past week as fund selling accelerated and removed a large amount of weather risk premium from the market. Funds added 39,165 contracts to their Chicago wheat short position, one of the fastest repositioning moves on record. U.S. new crop wheat export sales are also running 26 per cent below last year, with markets concerned that U.S. wheat values were overvalued compared to global competitors. With European and Black Sea wheat harvest moving closer, the market is starting to price in more nearby global wheat availability. The market is generally satisfied with the Canadian crop for now. Saskatchewan spring wheat and durum are both rated 90 per cent good-to-excellent, while Alberta moisture conditions are 79 per cent good-to-excellent. Manitoba rainfall has been adequate to excessive in the past week. The moisture is there for a crop in much of the Prairies, too much in some areas and delays will be the concern for the time being. The USDA report will be out Thursday, June 11, 2026, but we would not expect major production changes yet. Demand revisions will be the item to watch. For wheat to build a stronger rally, the market likely needs a fresh weather issue or stronger export demand. Producers should view any bounce as a chance to reassess old crop cleanup and new crop positioning as their crop advances. Market Outlook - Durum The durum outlook remains mostly flat. Saskatchewan durum is currently rated 90 per cent good to excellent, which keeps the market comfortable with Canadian crop prospects for now. The main Canadian dryness concern remains Regina south, where a large share of durum acres are located. Eastern Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba have moved to the other side of the issue, with heavy rains and concerns around spraying delays, but less of a durum acreage bias in the areas with the too wet issue. The U.S. durum region listed with 55per cent of the crop area now listed in drought, up from 42 per cent last week and 41 per cent the week prior. Montana did receive some rain over the past 72 hours, so this will reduce the area slightly for the next report. Montana’s rains ranging from three-tenths to 2 inches, which should help in some areas. Morocco placed 170 per cent durum import tariff from June 1, 2026t until the end of July is also a negative demand factor, as it will support local marketing of their large harvest and limit nearby import demand. Canadian durum exports remain 1 per cent ahead of last year’s pace, but stronger North African production keeps the demand outlook cautious. A large Western Canadian crop would keep durum markets muted into early winter at least until we have an idea on what prospects are for the next North African crop harvest. Limited upside seen at this time.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

  8. Jun 1

    Wheat Market Outlook - June 1, 2026

    Market Outlook - Wheat Wheat markets faded over the past week, but we are just getting into the spring wheat growing season in North America. We will have the first USDA Crop Progress report for the U.S. spring wheat, corn, soybeans, barley and corn crop this year which will be released today (Monday), after the market close. The market will use today's figures as a benchmark for the ongoing weeks. The initial reports provide the markets with a bit of fundamental news to chew on for the remainder of the week and generally set the tone for the first part of the week’s trade. The market will trade North American weather markets heavily here in the coming weeks. Producers should look at positioning both old crop and new crop sales on any spike in the market here as the time horizon to clean up old crop wheat in the next two months prior to the new crop harvest coming online. Producers looking for cashflow off the combine will want to be sure they have proper positioning for the harvest window. The market right now is satisfied with how the Canadian crop is looking in general. There are some problem areas and some delayed areas, but in markets, they look at total tonnage available to them from a region, and a good majority of the Canadian Prairies will be sitting fine for moisture. This changes week by week but for now, a good portion of central Alberta and central Manitoba is forecasted for rains in the next five days, we will see what falls vs forecasted.  Market Outlook - DurumMinimal change from last weeks’ durum outlook. Canadian durum export expectations dropped to 5.15 million tonnes compared to 5.5 million tonnes last year and 5.6 million tonnes the year prior by the IGC in their monthly report this past week, as stronger North African production is expected to reduce import demand into key Canadian export markets later this season. Price outlooks will be dependent upon the Canadian crop. Some dryness concerns in south central Saskatchewan and limited rainfall during the next ten days will be one to watch for the crop. The region has been in a dry bias and no real precipitation in the forecast. Many private estimates have the Canadian crop  down about 1MMT year-over-year on less acres and yield. The crop is on the tail end of planting and would largely be considered planted. North America will be the key card to the durum market. A large Western Canadian crop will keep markets muted into early fall. Markets anticipated to be flat for both old crop and new crop and will remain so unless any market news develops from the North American crop. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

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Sask Wheat's weekly wheat market outlook analyzes domestic and global factors that impact wheat prices and market access for Saskatchewan wheat producers. As of Aug. 5, 2025, Ty Kehrig and Derek Squair of Exceed Grain Marketing provide a weekly report of the wheat market summary.

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  • Creator
    Sask Wheat
  • Years Active
    2021 - 2026
  • Episodes
    272
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Sask Wheat
  • Show Website
    Wheat Market Outlook

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