Telltales

by Top Mark Capital
  • 5.0 (6)
  • Investing
  • Semiweekly

An investing podcast + substack for people who want to compound their wealth over the long run and don't mind sailing analogies telltales.substack.com

  1. 3d ago

    Anthropic Burned Under $10B. Now It's Betting Hundreds of Billions.

    Mike Nicoletti, Hunt Lawrence, and Jason Wallace walk this week’s Cash Flow Memo, from $90 oil and a grinding 10-year to the long-awaited Anthropic S-1, with Montana joining on how pharma will use AI. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * Hunt holds his $90 oil call against WTI near $100 and Brent $112 to $115: the Iran stalemate looks indefinite, Hormuz bypass pipelines are running, and US commercial stocks of products and blending components are 980 million barrels, down 50 million from end-2025; the strip runs $99 near-month, $88 for 2027 and $78 for 2028, which says producers will not sell forward, while diesel trades near $200 a barrel. * High oil caps gas: the 2027 strip averages $3.10 against roughly $4 over the past year or two, while European gas trades $22 to $23, so Louisiana gas at $3 nets about $17 less than the $5 it costs to liquefy and ship, a gap that closes only as capital-intensive LNG capacity catches up with supply. * Hunt still expects the 10-year to grind toward 6.1% by December and 6.5% by February despite the rally to about 5%, as AI build-out borrowing and global deficits outrun available capital; he wants the Fed’s $6 trillion balance sheet shrinking at least $500 billion a year by letting it run off, citing the 2020-21 precedent of a $3 trillion deficit and $4 trillion of Fed buying, and the Fed held rates today. * The Anthropic S-1 shows a company built on under $10 billion of cumulative burn, about $130 billion in the bank, and single-digit billions of training spend on AWS Trainium, yet capacity commitments run to hundreds of billions; inference spend of about $5 billion in the first half against a possible $50 billion next year implies revenue north of $200 billion, and Mike reads the post-training-driven gains as killing the 10x-cost-per-model-generation thesis. * 48% of Anthropic’s revenue runs through hyperscaler marketplaces, which Jason calls the biggest risk (one switch to an open-source model) and a win for Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Oracle; on pharma, the hosts expect Lilly-scale buyers to keep frontier models only with hard data-protection guarantees, likely via on-premise deployments that Nvidia has seeded since BioNTech’s COVID-era AI acquisition. Show Notes [00:45] Why $90, Not $100 Hunt keeps his $90 call with WTI near $100. The Iran stalemate looks indefinite, Hormuz bypass pipelines are running, and US commercial stocks are down 50 million barrels to 980 million. [06:17] Backwardation and Gas The strip runs $99 near-month, $88 for 2027 and $78 for 2028, so producers won’t sell forward. High oil means more Permian gas: the 2027 average is $3.10 while Europe pays $22 to $23. [09:18] Deficit and the Fed Exhibit A’s $2 trillion deficit isn’t sustainable. Hunt still sees the 10-year grinding toward 6.5% and wants the Fed’s $6 trillion balance sheet shrinking, not rescuing bonds. The Fed held today. [12:12] Read the S-1 Skip the risk factors and read the first 40 to 50 pages of business description: the best account of where AI stands. The SpaceX prospectus business section is worth the same treatment. [14:55] Cheap Models, Huge Commitments Anthropic got here on single-digit billions of training spend, but its capacity commitments run to hundreds of billions. That spending implies revenue north of $200 billion next year. [19:22] Hyperscalers, NeoClouds, SpaceX With the hyperscalers out of spare capacity, Anthropic signs long-term NeoCloud deals, short-term SpaceX leases near $50 a watt cancelable on 12 months’ notice, and 15 to 25 year powered-shell leases to build its own. [22:23] Who Loses on Page 1? Nobody yet: Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron and TSMC all look better off. Under $10 billion of burn since inception sets a very high bar for OpenAI. [24:44] 48% Through the Marketplace Nearly half of Anthropic’s business is sold through AWS and Google Cloud marketplaces, where switching to another model is one click. Jason sees the hyperscalers as the long-run winners. [26:45] Will Lilly Give Up Claude? Pharma will pay for frontier models only with ironclad data protection. Montana explains how AI is flipping research time from literature review to wet lab work. [31:42] Pharma’s Own Data Centers BioNTech bought an AI drug discovery startup with a data center full of Nvidia A100s. Lilly can afford its own, and Anthropic would likely license into it. More on the Anthropic S-1 and what it means for the rest of tech next week. Download this week’s Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and subscribe. Cashtags $AMZN $AVGO $BNTX $GOOGL $LLY $MSFT $MU $NVDA $ORCL $TSM This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

    Anthropic Burned Under $10B. Now It's Betting Hundreds of Billions.

  2. 6d ago

    Weekend Update - W2643

    ▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The Tape — W2643 Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-10-17 → 2026-10-23. Composite is rank-sum percentile of FCF Yield + NTM Revenue Growth (higher = better balance). Banks and finance-book names shown separately. Telltales Yield — Top 10 Telltales Yield — Bottom 10 This Week’s Reporters Sector Medians Debt / FCF Watch (highest leverage on TTM FCF) Weekly Price Movement Top 5 (week-over-week price) Bottom 5 (week-over-week price) Banks (shown separately — FCF metric not meaningful) Finance-book — FCF not comparable Customer-float / captive-finance / reserve businesses (IBKR broker float, KMX CarMax Auto Finance, PYPL customer funds, CRCL stablecoin reserves). The memo’s operating-FCF method overstates their FCF, so they are held off the ranked leaderboard pending the P&L-waterfall rebuild. Data Gaps 90 of 91 ranked-eligible names ranked. 1 dropped for missing FCF yield or NTM revenue growth; 7 shown separately (banks + finance-book, FCF not comparable). Source: cashflow-memo master_2026-10-23.csv. NTM growth from analyst-estimates consensus. Composite is a percentile rank, not a recommendation. The Issue — This Week's Brief The Cashflow Memo Meta and Bloom Energy’s Third Quarters, Merck and Moderna’s Melanoma Data Meta and Bloom Energy’s third quarters, the Merck and Moderna melanoma trial results, and Salesforce’s deal for Braze The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot reports what the companies in the Cash Flow Memo disclosed this week and what is scheduled next. About 9 minutes. Download the memo at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode E2644. Chapter markers * Time | Segment * 0:00 | Intro: what the episode covers * 0:35 | Theme: Meta and Bloom Energy * 3:00 | Deep dive: Merck and Moderna * 4:55 | Rapid-fire: Salesforce, Netflix, Comcast, the earnings calendar * 7:30 | Close * 7:45 | Disclaimer Full transcript Intro Ava: Welcome to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot. Ava: This week, from the companies in the Cash Flow Memo: third-quarter results from Meta and Bloom Energy, the Phase 3 melanoma trial results from Merck and Moderna, Salesforce’s agreement to buy Braze, third-quarter results from Netflix and Comcast, and next week’s earnings calendar. Ava: The show is produced entirely with AI tools, and the voice you’re hearing is AI-generated. The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you. Theme — Meta and Bloom Energy Ava: Meta and Bloom Energy both reported their third quarters this week. Meta’s free cash flow and Bloom’s operating cash flow were both negative for the quarter[^8k-meta-q3-20261021][^8k-be-q3-20261022]. Meta first. Ava: Meta reported on Wednesday. Per the earnings release, attached to an 8-K, revenue was about $65 billion, up 26% from a year earlier[^8k-meta-q3-20261021]. Cash from operations was about $33 billion, and capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, were about $35 billion[^8k-meta-q3-20261021]. Ava: The release puts free cash flow for the quarter at negative $2.1 billion[^8k-meta-q3-20261021]. Costs in the quarter include a $9.9 billion charge for Meta’s agreement with state attorneys general to resolve litigation over teen mental health and social media[^8k-meta-q3-20261021]. Ava: For the fourth quarter, Meta guided revenue to $73 billion to $76 billion[^8k-meta-q3-20261021]. For this year’s capital expenditures, it now expects $135 billion to $145 billion, narrowed from $130 billion to $145 billion[^8k-meta-q3-20261021]. In the outlook section of the release, Meta’s chief financial officer wrote this about next year. Meta’s chief financial officer, Q3 2026 earnings release (quoted): Looking beyond 2026, we are still developing our budget and capacity plans for next year, but we expect to continue investing aggressively to support both our core business and emerging AI initiatives.[^8k-meta-q3-20261021] Ava: Separately, per the 8-K, Meta’s board declared a one-time dividend of one new non-voting Class C share for each outstanding Class A and Class B share[^8k-meta-classc-20261019]. The new class takes effect January 19, 2027, and the 8-K says the dividend will be paid no later than the fifth business day after that[^8k-meta-classc-20261019]. The release says that after the dividend is paid, Meta expects the Class A share price to reflect the effect of a two-for-one stock split[^8k-meta-q3-20261021]. Ava: Meta shares fell nearly 7% on Thursday, CNBC reports[^cnbc-meta-fcf-20261022]. The Cash Flow Memo dated October 19, page 4, shows Meta’s free cash flow at negative $17 billion, a figure that predates this report[^memo-meta-20261019]. Next, Bloom Energy. Ava: Bloom Energy reported on Thursday. Per the earnings release, attached to an 8-K, revenue was about $1.2 billion, up 138% from a year earlier[^8k-be-q3-20261022]. Bloom raised its full-year revenue guidance to $4.4 billion to $4.6 billion[^8k-be-q3-20261022]. Ava: The cash flow statement in the release shows $27 million of cash used in operating activities in the quarter, against $226 million of cash provided in the second quarter[^8k-be-q3-20261022]. Purchases of property, plant and equipment were about $150 million[^8k-be-q3-20261022]. Ava: Bloom shares fell 11% on Friday, Investopedia reports[^invest-be-drop-20261023]. Next, Merck and Moderna. Deep dive — Merck and Moderna Ava: Merck and Moderna, both on page 15 of the memo. On Thursday, the two companies released detailed results from INTerpath-001, the Phase 3 trial of intismeran autogene, their investigational mRNA-based individualized neoantigen therapy, given with Merck’s Keytruda after surgery in stage IIB to IV melanoma, per their joint release[^pr-mrk-mrna-interpath-20261022]. CNBC reports the companies released the results after partial data leaked on social media earlier that day[^cnbc-mrna-results-20261023]. Ava: At the primary analysis, after a median follow-up of about 25 months, intismeran with Keytruda reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 42%, against Keytruda alone, per the release[^pr-mrk-mrna-interpath-20261022]. It reduced the risk of distant metastasis or death by 38%[^pr-mrk-mrna-interpath-20261022]. Ava: The release says that in the first six months, the combination’s effect was comparable with Keytruda alone[^pr-mrk-mrna-interpath-20261022]. From six months on, following the immunization regimen, a pre-specified sensitivity analysis showed a 58% reduction in the risk of recurrence or death[^pr-mrk-mrna-interpath-20261022]. Ava: Per the release, overall survival data are not yet mature, and the safety profile was generally consistent with earlier studies of the combination, with no new safety signals[^pr-mrk-mrna-interpath-20261022]. The results are scheduled for presentation at the European Society for Medical Oncology Congress and have been accepted for publication in The New England Journal of Medicine[^pr-mrk-mrna-interpath-20261022]. The companies said they are engaging with regulatory authorities[^pr-mrk-mrna-interpath-20261022]. Ava: In an interview before the results, Moderna chief executive Stéphane Bancel told CNBC the company is finishing a filing with regulators as it aims to get the drug fully approved next year[^cnbc-mrna-results-20261023]. Ava: CNBC reports that Moderna shares fell as much as 25% on Thursday before regaining some ground[^cnbc-mrna-leak-20261022]. The Cash Flow Memo dated October 19 has Merck at 23 times free cash flow, and shows Moderna’s free cash flow at negative $2.8 billion, with no multiple[^memo-mrk-mrna-20261019]. Ava: Merck reports its third quarter on Thursday, October 29[^earn-mrk], and Moderna reports on Friday, November 6[^earn-mrna]. On to the rapid-fire. Rapid-fire Ava: Salesforce. On Tuesday, it announced a definitive agreement to acquire Braze, a customer engagement software company, for about $5.7 billion in enterprise value, per the release attached to an 8-K[^8k-crm-braze-20261020]. Braze holders would receive $47.50 a share in cash, and the deal is expected to close in Salesforce’s fiscal 2028, subject to Braze shareholder and regulatory approvals[^8k-crm-braze-20261020]. Ava: Braze shares closed up more than 51% on Tuesday, CNBC reports[^cnbc-crm-braze-20261020]. The Cash Flow Memo dated October 19 has Salesforce at 24 times free cash flow, on $9.2 billion of free cash flow[^memo-crm-20261019]. Ava: Netflix reported its third quarter on Tuesday. Per the shareholder letter, attached to an 8-K, revenue was about $12.9 billion, up 12%[^8k-nflx-q3-20261020]. Netflix now expects full-year revenue of $51.1 billion, which the letter says is 0.2% below the midpoint of its prior range[^8k-nflx-q3-20261020]. Ava: The letter puts this year’s advertising revenue at about $2.7 billion, against about $3 billion previously, and attributes the change to a slightly slower than expected rollout of some ad product capabilities[^8k-nflx-q3-20261020]. It lowered the full-year free cash flow forecast to about $12 billion, from $12.5 billion, due primarily to a real estate transaction expected to close in the fourth quarter[^8k-nflx-q3-20261020]. Ava: The letter’s fourth-quarter operating margin forecast of 26% includes about 1.2 percentage points of impact from Netflix’s recently announced headcount reductions[^8k-nflx-q3-20261020]. The same memo issue, on page 4, has Netflix at 22 times free cash flow, a figure that predates this report[^memo-nflx-20261019]. Ava: Comcast reported its third quarter on Thursday. Per the earnings release, attached to an 8-K, revenue was about $29.3 billion, down 6% as reported and up 0.5% on a pro forma basis[^8k-cmcsa-q3-20261022]. Ava: The release shows domestic broadband residential customer net losses of 144,000, and free cash flow of $4.2 bill

  3. Oct 22

    Buy for the Data Centers, Get Space for Free

    Mike Nicoletti, Hunt Lawrence, and Jason Wallace walk this week’s Cash Flow Memo: an oil strip pricing a long Iran stalemate, a $2 trillion deficit and a rising 10-year, Europe’s food rules, SpaceX’s data center economics against Musk’s trillion-dollar talk, and Nvidia’s path to $400 billion of free cash flow. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * Despite the Iran war, world oil supply is off only about 2 million barrels a day because demand also fell about 1 million, and US commercial inventories are down just 34 million barrels since end-2025 on a 1 billion barrel base; the strip shows $95 near-month against $75 for 2028, but 2027 averages $86, only $10 of backwardation, so the market is pricing the Iran stalemate for another year or more, and high crude keeps feeding Permian associated gas (13 of the 18 Bcf/d added since 2021), which caps gas prices. * Exhibit A is marked to the CBO’s FY26 actuals and FY27 still runs close to a $2 trillion deficit; Hunt sees the 10-year near 6.1% by December and 6.5% by February to March, as data center corporate borrowing, $2 trillion a year of Treasury issuance, 3% Japanese 10-year yields, and Gulf selling drain demand, with no Fed QE rescue because the $4 trillion COVID balance-sheet expansion fed the last inflation, and he reads Warsh’s the bond market is helping us as the Fed holding 3.75 to 4% with at most a December hike. * Answering last week’s food question, Europe applies the precautionary principle (new additives need disclosure plus an independent risk assessment) and puts warning labels on synthetic dyes so manufacturers self-police; Jason would require a label on any untested ingredient, and Mike argues additives raise margins, not health, so slowing food innovation is rational in a way the EU’s AI rules, which only cost competitiveness, are not. * SpaceX’s quarter shows data center capacity is short and that a builder who takes the risk earns spot prices (Google and Anthropic are the latest tenants), while NeoClouds, mostly former Bitcoin miners, accept hyperscaler-backstopped deals and thin returns; SpaceX plans 10 gigawatts next year and talked up to 20 against Goldman’s 17 to 18 gigawatts likely built industry-wide, and Mike’s case is that the data centers alone justify the valuation, so space comes free. * Hunt’s own SpaceX forecast stretches 10 gigawatts to end-2028 for about $100 billion of data center revenue, with debt rising from about $40 billion to $112 billion, against Musk’s call guide of $74 billion in 2027 and $138 billion in 2028 and his talk of $500 billion to $1 trillion; Nvidia, at $420 billion of revenue and $260 billion of free cash flow for the year to January 2027 and approaching $400 billion of free cash flow if Jensen’s +70% holds (Exxon’s best year was about $60 billion), sets up next week’s question of who loses: Apple, the hyperscalers, Oracle, Broadcom, AMD, or Intel, while TSMC and Micron look like winners. Show Notes [00:31] Oil World oil supply is off only about 2 million barrels a day despite the Iran war, because demand fell about 1 million too. US commercial inventories are down just 34 million barrels since the end of 2025. [02:36] Backwardation and Gas Crude is $95 for the near month and $75 for 2028, but 2027 averages $86, so the market expects the Iran stalemate to last another year or more. High oil means more Permian associated gas, 13 of the 18 Bcf/d added since 2021. [04:19] Deficit Exhibit A is marked to the CBO, and FY27 still runs close to a $2 trillion deficit. Hunt sees the 10-year near 6.1% by December and 6.5% by early spring as data center borrowing and $2 trillion a year of issuance compete for funds. [10:02] Warsh and the Fed No QE rescue: the COVID deficits were financed by a $4 trillion Fed balance sheet expansion that fed inflation. Warsh says the bond market is helping, and Fed funds holds at 3.75 to 4%. [13:12] Europe’s Food Rules Europe requires disclosure and an independent risk assessment for new additives and puts warning labels on synthetic dyes, so manufacturers self-police. Mike contrasts it with EU AI rules that only cost competitiveness. [17:41] Three Launches, 13 Hours SpaceX flew three orbital launches in 13 hours on October 1, one a NASA crew to the ISS. That is the cadence orbital data centers will need. [19:07] SpaceX vs. the NeoClouds SpaceX takes the risk and earns spot prices from tenants like Google and Anthropic, while NeoClouds take hyperscaler-backstopped deals and thin returns. SpaceX plans 10 gigawatts next year, maybe 20. [22:19] Discount the Trillion Hunt’s forecast has about $100 billion of SpaceX data center revenue by 2028. Musk guided $74 billion for 2027 and $138 billion for 2028, then floated $500 billion to $1 trillion. Where does a trillion come from? [27:18] Nvidia’s DSX Pod Nvidia’s new DSX Pod puts racks of servers in a shipping container that can be dropped, powered on, and running in weeks instead of months. It may be how SpaceX stands up capacity. [28:07] Space Comes Free SpaceX’s board pushed Musk to rent out idle capacity at a return threshold. Value the company on its data centers alone and you get space for free. [28:58] Nvidia’s Free Cash Flow Hunt has $420 billion of revenue and $260 billion of free cash flow for the year to January 2027. If Jensen’s +70% holds, next year approaches $400 billion, against Exxon’s best year of about $60 billion. [31:42] Who Loses? If SpaceX and Nvidia take this much of the tech pie, who pays: Apple, the hyperscalers, Oracle, Broadcom, AMD, or Intel? Mike says cheap intelligence tests every moat. More next week. Download this week’s Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and subscribe for next week’s episode. Cashtags $AAPL $AMD $AMZN $AVGO $GOOGL $INTC $MSFT $MU $NVDA $ORCL $TSLA $TSM $XOM This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

    Buy for the Data Centers, Get Space for Free

  4. Oct 18

    Weekend Update - W2642

    ▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The Tape — W2642 Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-10-09 → 2026-10-16. Composite is rank-sum percentile of FCF Yield + NTM Revenue Growth (higher = better balance). Banks and finance-book names shown separately. Telltales Yield — Top 10 Telltales Yield — Bottom 10 This Week’s Reporters Sector Medians Debt / FCF Watch (highest leverage on TTM FCF) Weekly Price Movement Top 5 (week-over-week price) Bottom 5 (week-over-week price) Banks (shown separately — FCF metric not meaningful) Finance-book — FCF not comparable Customer-float / captive-finance / reserve businesses (IBKR broker float, KMX CarMax Auto Finance, PYPL customer funds, CRCL stablecoin reserves). The memo’s operating-FCF method overstates their FCF, so they are held off the ranked leaderboard pending the P&L-waterfall rebuild. Data Gaps 91 of 92 ranked-eligible names ranked. 1 dropped for missing FCF yield or NTM revenue growth; 7 shown separately (banks + finance-book, FCF not comparable). Source: cashflow-memo master_2026-10-16.csv. NTM growth from analyst-estimates consensus. Composite is a percentile rank, not a recommendation. The Issue — This Week's Brief The Cashflow Memo Bank Prints, UnitedHealth’s Outlook, and Netflix’s Content Chief Third-quarter results from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and UnitedHealth, and Netflix’s new content chief The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot reports what the companies in the Cash Flow Memo disclosed this week and what is scheduled next. About 9 minutes. Download the memo at telltales.us. Telltales is back Wednesday on episode E2643. Chapter markers * Time | Segment * 0:00 | Intro: what the episode covers * 0:40 | Theme: bank earnings (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley) * 3:15 | Deep dive: UnitedHealth * 6:00 | Rapid-fire: Netflix, Merck and Moderna, the earnings calendar * 8:30 | Close * 8:45 | Disclaimer Full transcript Intro Ava: Welcome to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot. Ava: This week, from the companies in the Cash Flow Memo: third-quarter results from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, UnitedHealth’s third quarter and its raised outlook, Netflix’s new chief content officer and reported job cuts, the Merck and Moderna cancer vaccine data scheduled for a medical congress, and next week’s earnings calendar. Ava: The show is produced entirely with AI tools, and the voice you’re hearing is AI-generated. The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you. Theme — Bank earnings Ava: Page 13 of the memo carries JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, and all three reported their third quarters this week. JPMorgan and Goldman reported on Tuesday[^jpm-pres-q3-20261013][^pr-gs-q3-20261013], and Morgan Stanley reported on Wednesday[^pr-ms-q3-20261014]. Ava: JPMorgan first. Per its earnings presentation, attached to an eight-K, JPMorgan earned about $15 billion in the quarter, or $5.57 a share[^jpm-pres-q3-20261013]. Excluding $658 million of net investment securities losses, earnings were $5.75 a share[^jpm-pres-q3-20261013]. CNBC reports the LSEG analyst estimate was $5.90[^cnbc-banks-q3-20261013]. Ava: The presentation puts full-year net interest income at about $106.2 billion, up from about $105.5 billion in its July outlook[^jpm-pres-q3-20261013][^jpm-pres-q2-20260714]. It puts full-year adjusted expense, which excludes firmwide legal expense, at about $108.6 billion, up from about $107.5 billion[^jpm-pres-q3-20261013][^jpm-pres-q2-20260714]. Ava: Goldman Sachs. Per its earnings release, third-quarter net revenue was about $19 billion, 23% higher than a year earlier[^pr-gs-q3-20261013]. Earnings per share were $17.01, against $12.25 a year earlier[^pr-gs-q3-20261013]. Ava: In the release, chief executive David Solomon described the quarter as the firm’s second-highest for net revenue, with record year-to-date net revenue[^pr-gs-q3-20261013]. Annualized return on equity was about 19%[^pr-gs-q3-20261013]. Ava: Morgan Stanley. Per its earnings release, net revenue was about $20 billion, against about $18 billion a year earlier[^pr-ms-q3-20261014]. Earnings per share were $3.03, against $2.80[^pr-ms-q3-20261014]. Ava: The release says Wealth Management had record net revenue of about $9 billion and added about $230 billion of net new assets in the quarter[^pr-ms-q3-20261014]. Equity revenue in Institutional Securities was about $5.8 billion, against about $4.1 billion a year earlier[^pr-ms-q3-20261014]. Next, UnitedHealth. Deep dive — UnitedHealth Ava: UnitedHealth reported its third quarter on Tuesday and raised its full-year outlook, per the company’s release[^pr-unh-q3-20261013]. Revenue was $112.7 billion, against $113.2 billion a year earlier[^pr-unh-q3-20261013]. Ava: Earnings per share were $4.56, against $2.59 a year earlier, and adjusted earnings per share were $4.69, per the release[^pr-unh-q3-20261013]. Ava: The release lists earnings from operations of $6.6 billion, and cash flows from operations of $5.1 billion, or 1.2 times net income[^pr-unh-q3-20261013]. Ava: On the outlook, UnitedHealth now expects full-year adjusted earnings of at least $20.50 a share, per the release[^pr-unh-q3-20261013]. The company’s second-quarter release, in July, had put it at $19.50 to $20 a share[^pr-unh-q2-20260716]. Ava: The release puts UnitedHealth’s medical care ratio, medical costs as a share of premium revenue, at 88.4% in the quarter, against 89.9% a year earlier[^pr-unh-q3-20261013]. Ava: Chief financial officer Wayne DeVeydt told CNBC that medical costs in the quarter remain high compared with historical norms. On that, he said this. Wayne DeVeydt (quoted): I think it’s something we should keep an eye on.[^cnbc-unh-q3-20261013] Ava: DeVeydt also told CNBC that the independent dispute resolution process under the No Surprises Act is adding at least one percentage point to total medical costs[^cnbc-unh-q3-20261013]. He said acute hospital admissions among UnitedHealth members fell 15% from a year earlier through the third quarter[^cnbc-unh-q3-20261013]. In the company’s prepared remarks for the earnings call, Optum’s Patrick Conway cited a 10% increase in home health visits over last year[^unh-remarks-q3-20261013]. Ava: The Cash Flow Memo dated October 12 has UnitedHealth’s enterprise value at 22 times free cash flow, on $20 billion of free cash flow, figures that predate this report[^memo-unh-20261012]. Last week’s show reported the Texas attorney general’s investigation of UnitedHealth, announced October 5[^ep-w2641]. Rapid-fire — Netflix, Merck and Moderna, the earnings calendar Ava: Netflix. On Thursday, the company announced that Peter Rice, most recently chairman of Walt Disney Television, will join as chief content officer on October 26[^pr-nflx-rice-20261015]. Per the release, he replaces Bela Bajaria, who is leaving after nearly 10 years[^pr-nflx-rice-20261015]. Ava: On Wednesday, CNBC reported that Netflix will lay off about 6% of its workforce, roughly 1,000 employees, mostly in product, technology, legal and human resources, according to a memo from co-chief executives Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters that CNBC obtained[^cnbc-nflx-layoffs-20261014]. CNBC quoted the memo as saying this about the business. Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters, memo to employees (quoted): Our business is strong and growing, and we remain on track to deliver our full year forecast.[^cnbc-nflx-layoffs-20261014] Ava: Netflix reports on Tuesday, October 20[^earn-nflx]. In its second-quarter shareholder letter, attached to an eight-K in July, Netflix forecast third-quarter revenue of about $12.9 billion and earnings per share of $0.82[^nflx-letter-q2-20260716]. Ava: The Cash Flow Memo dated October 12 has Netflix’s enterprise value at 22 times free cash flow, on $13 billion of free cash flow[^memo-nflx-20261012]. Ava: Merck and Moderna, both on page 15 of the memo. In August, the two companies released positive initial data from a late-stage trial of their personalized cancer vaccine, given with Keytruda in melanoma patients, CNBC reports[^cnbc-mrk-davis-20261014]. Per Merck’s release, the first presentation of that Phase 3 data, from the INTerpath-001 trial, is scheduled for a Presidential Symposium at the European Society for Medical Oncology Congress in Madrid[^pr-mrk-esmo-20261013]. Ava: The congress runs October 23 to 27, and Merck holds an oncology investor event there on Monday, October 26[^pr-mrk-esmo-20261013]. Ava: On Wednesday, Merck chief executive Rob Davis told CNBC he expects the vaccine to get faster to manufacture. CNBC reports the current timeline, from sequencing a patient’s tumor to delivering the vaccine to the hospital, is six weeks[^cnbc-mrk-davis-20261014]. Davis said this. Rob Davis (quoted): But I do think over time you’re going to see that timeline shortened.[^cnbc-mrk-davis-20261014] Ava: The same day, Merck opened its ADVANCE research facility on its West Point, Pennsylvania campus, part of what the release calls a $550 million regional investment[^pr-mrk-advance-20261014]. The Cash Flow Memo dated October 12 has Merck’s enterprise value at 23 times free cash flow, and shows Moderna’s free cash flow at negative $2.8 billion, with no multiple[^memo-mrk-mrna-20261012]. Ava: Next week’s earnings calendar. Netflix reports Tuesday. On Wednesday, October 21: Tesla[^earn-tsla], Meta[^earn-meta], AT&T[^earn-t], NextEra Energy[^earn-nee], Kinder Morgan[^earn-kmi] and Moody’s[^earn-mco]. On Thursday, October 22: Comcast[^earn-cmcsa], Spotify[^earn-spot] and Bloom Energy[^earn-be]. Verizon reports the following Monday, October 26[^earn-vz]. Close Ava: That’s the Weekend Update. Telltales is back Wednesday on episode 2643. Download this week’s Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us, and send us a note th

  5. Oct 14

    Data Centers Earn, Washington Doesn't

    Mike Nicoletti, Hunt Lawrence, and Jason Wallace walk this week’s Cash Flow Memo: an oil strip pricing a long stalemate, a $2 trillion deficit and a grinding 10-year, what hyperscaler data center capex actually earns, the hyperscalers against the chipmakers, BioNTech’s cancer vaccine miss, and the FDA’s food additive loophole. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * The 2027 oil strip at $83 against a $93 near month leaves only $10 of backwardation (the full $20 does not show up until 2028), so the futures market is pricing the Iran and Houthi standoff as a drawn-out stalemate; the $3.30 2027 gas strip disappoints a market that expected $4, and Hunt says hold upstream gas but put no new capital there while Permian associated gas drives two-thirds of supply growth. * Exhibit A is marked to the CBO’s just-under-$2 trillion FY26 deficit, with defense pushing FY27 higher and all other flat near $1.3 to $1.35 trillion; Hunt expects the 10-year to keep grinding higher with no Fed QE rescue, which hurts housing and its suppliers but not the AI trade or the broader profit cycle. * Apple spends $8 billion of capex against $144 billion of pre-capex cash flow, while Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft spend nearly all of theirs, about $450 billion combined, on data centers; SpaceX’s Memphis build ($20 billion for about a gigawatt, rented out for roughly the same amount) implies a payback of one to three years even on 90-day-cancellable contracts. * Mike calls the SpaceX-Google deal the first market-rate data center contract, which implies the hyperscalers’ installed capacity is under-earning and boards will push for more revenue per gigawatt; asked to pick Page 1 (the hyperscalers) or Page 3 (Nvidia, TSMC, Micron), Jason takes the hyperscalers on the durability of token demand, and Mike takes the chips, arguing that the slower Page 3 moves, the better for Page 1. * Nvidia now sells SpaceX nearly everything inside the data center shell, funded by $186 billion of free cash flow, and Micron’s customers are prepaying for sold-out capacity; in healthcare, BioNTech’s head-and-neck mRNA cancer vaccine missed its Phase 3 progression-free-survival endpoint (one win in melanoma, three misses), and the FDA’s August GRAS proposal would require notification for an estimated 1,000 to 3,000 self-certified food additives, with no penalty for failing to file. Show Notes [00:32] Oil Exhibit C is unchanged. Houthi missiles and Iranian drones are hitting the Gulf, but with $93 oil now and $83 for 2027, the full $20 of backwardation does not arrive until 2028. The market is pricing a drawn-out stalemate. [01:56] Gas The $3.30 2027 gas strip disappoints a market that expected $4. Hold upstream gas, but no new capital until supply resolves, with the Permian supplying two-thirds of new gas. [02:49] Deficit Exhibit A is marked to the CBO’s just-under-$2 trillion FY26 deficit. Hunt expects the 10-year to keep grinding higher with no Fed rescue: bad for housing, not for the AI trade. [08:38] Capex vs. the Deficit Apple spends $8 billion of $144 billion in cash flow on capex; Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft put about $450 billion into data centers. SpaceX’s Memphis numbers suggest that spending pays back in one to three years. [12:22] Market-Rate Compute Mike calls SpaceX’s Google deal the first market-rate data center contract, which means the hyperscalers’ existing capacity is under-earning and their boards will push for more revenue per gigawatt. [14:10] Page 1 or Page 3 Hunt makes them choose: the hyperscalers, or Nvidia, TSMC, and Micron. Jason takes durable token demand; Mike takes the chips, with ASML booked out through 2028. [18:19] Nvidia Sells the Rack Nvidia now sells SpaceX nearly everything inside the data center shell, funded by $186 billion of free cash flow, while Micron’s customers prepay to lock in capacity. [21:15] BioNTech Vaccine Miss BioNTech’s mRNA cancer vaccine missed its Phase 3 endpoint in head and neck cancer, making it one win and three misses. Jason explains the hot-versus-cold tumor split. [22:55] The GRAS Loophole The FDA estimates 1,000 to 3,000 food additives are self-certified as safe and never disclosed. Its August proposal would require notification but carries no penalty, while California and Texas move faster. Download this week’s Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and subscribe for next week’s episode. Cashtags $AAPL $AMD $AMZN $ASML $BNTX $DELL $GOOGL $MSFT $MU $NVDA $TSLA $TSM This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

    Data Centers Earn, Washington Doesn't

  6. Oct 11

    Weekend Update - W2641

    ▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The Tape — W2641 Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-10-02 → 2026-10-09. Composite is rank-sum percentile of FCF Yield + NTM Revenue Growth (higher = better balance). Banks and finance-book names shown separately. Telltales Yield — Top 10 Telltales Yield — Bottom 10 This Week’s Reporters Sector Medians Debt / FCF Watch (highest leverage on TTM FCF) Weekly Price Movement Top 5 (week-over-week price) Bottom 5 (week-over-week price) Banks (shown separately — FCF metric not meaningful) Finance-book — FCF not comparable Customer-float / captive-finance / reserve businesses (IBKR broker float, KMX CarMax Auto Finance, PYPL customer funds, CRCL stablecoin reserves). The memo’s operating-FCF method overstates their FCF, so they are held off the ranked leaderboard pending the P&L-waterfall rebuild. Data Gaps 91 of 92 ranked-eligible names ranked. 1 dropped for missing FCF yield or NTM revenue growth; 7 shown separately (banks + finance-book, FCF not comparable). Source: cashflow-memo master_2026-10-09.csv. NTM growth from analyst-estimates consensus. Composite is a percentile rank, not a recommendation. The Issue — This Week's Brief The Cashflow Memo Starbucks, Chipotle, and Two Permian Gas Deals A report that Starbucks explored a takeover of Chipotle, two Permian natural gas deals, and Uber’s agreement to buy ezCater The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot reports what the companies in the Cash Flow Memo disclosed this week and what is scheduled next. About 8 minutes. Download the memo at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode E2642. Chapter markers * Time | Segment * 0:00 | Intro: what the episode covers * 0:40 | Theme: Starbucks and Chipotle * 2:30 | Deep dive: Permian gas (Energy Transfer, ONEOK) * 4:45 | Rapid-fire: Uber, Broadcom, UnitedHealth, the earnings calendar * 7:20 | Close * 7:40 | Disclaimer Full transcript Intro Ava: Welcome to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot. Ava: This week, from the companies in the Cash Flow Memo: a report that Starbucks has explored a takeover of Chipotle, Energy Transfer’s and ONEOK’s Permian gas deals, Uber’s agreement to buy ezCater, and next week’s earnings calendar. Ava: The show is produced entirely with AI tools, and the voice you’re hearing is AI-generated. The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you. Theme — Starbucks and Chipotle Ava: Page 16 of the memo carries Starbucks and Chipotle. On Thursday, the Financial Times reported that Starbucks has worked with advisers in recent months on a takeover proposal for Chipotle[^ft-sbux-cmg-20261008]. Nation’s Restaurant News reported that the FT described the plans as early stage[^nrn-sbux-cmg-20261008]. Axios reported that it was not clear whether an offer had been made[^axios-cmg-20261008]. Ava: Chipotle shares closed up about 6% on Thursday, after trading as much as 8.5% higher[^px-nasdaq-20261008]. Axios reported that Chipotle’s market value was above $41 billion that afternoon[^axios-cmg-20261008]. Starbucks shares fell nearly 7% during the session and closed down less than half a percent[^px-nasdaq-20261008]. Ava: Starbucks chief executive Brian Niccol was chief executive of Chipotle before he left for Starbucks in 2024[^axios-cmg-20261008]. On October 6, before the FT report, Semafor wrote that it had reported Chipotle had tapped bankers to fend off a potential takeover, and that people close to the company said Chipotle had not received a takeover bid[^semafor-cmg-20261006]. Ava: A Starbucks spokesperson responded to the FT report on Thursday, per Nation’s Restaurant News. Starbucks spokesperson (quoted): As a matter of policy, we don’t comment on rumors and speculation. Our team is laser-focused on executing our Back to Starbucks strategy.[^nrn-sbux-cmg-20261008] Ava: The spokesperson added that Starbucks will give fiscal 2027 guidance with its fourth-quarter results[^nrn-sbux-cmg-20261008]. Per the company, Starbucks reports those results after the close on Thursday, October 29[^pr-sbux-q4date-20261008]. Deep dive — Permian gas Ava: On page 10 of the memo, Energy Transfer and ONEOK. Both disclosed Permian Basin natural gas deals on October 6. Ava: Energy Transfer announced an agreement to acquire Vaquero Midstream, in a transaction the company valued at about $2.6 billion[^pr-et-vaquero-20261006]. Per the release, the consideration is nearly $2 billion in cash and about 33 million newly issued Energy Transfer common units[^pr-et-vaquero-20261006]. Ava: Per the release, Vaquero operates about 300 miles of pipeline in the southern Delaware Basin of Texas, and three processing plants with about 675 million cubic feet a day of capacity[^pr-et-vaquero-20261006]. Ava: Vaquero owns enough acreage for two more plants, which the release says could raise capacity to about 1.2 billion cubic feet a day[^pr-et-vaquero-20261006]. Ava: Energy Transfer said Vaquero’s cash flows are supported by about 100,000 dedicated acres, and by customer contracts with an average remaining life of about 10 years[^pr-et-vaquero-20261006]. The company expects the deal to close in the fourth quarter, subject to regulatory approval[^pr-et-vaquero-20261006]. Ava: The same day, ONEOK said it completed its purchase of Brazos Midstream’s natural gas gathering and processing assets in the Midland Basin, also in the Permian, for about $4.4 billion in cash[^pr-oke-brazos-20261006]. Ava: Per ONEOK’s release, the deal more than doubles its Midland Basin processing capacity, to about 2.3 billion cubic feet a day, a figure that includes plants under construction[^pr-oke-brazos-20261006]. The assets carry about 600,000 dedicated acres under long-term fixed-fee contracts, with a weighted average remaining term of more than 12 years[^pr-oke-brazos-20261006]. Ava: ONEOK reports third-quarter results after the close on October 27, per the company[^pr-oke-q3date-20261005]. Rapid-fire Ava: Uber said on Tuesday that it has agreed to buy ezCater, a platform for catering and workplace meals, in an all-cash transaction valued at $2.3 billion[^pr-uber-ezcater-20261006]. Uber said the deal is expected to close in the coming months, subject to regulatory approvals[^pr-uber-ezcater-20261006]. Ava: Per Uber, ezCater generated more than $2.5 billion of gross bookings over the trailing 12 months, and its average order values are above $400[^pr-uber-ezcater-20261006]. Uber holds its third-quarter call on Wednesday, November 4, per the company[^pr-uber-q3date-20261005]. Ava: Broadcom. Bloomberg reported on October 7 that Broadcom has held early discussions to arrange financing to help OpenAI buy the custom AI chips the two companies are developing[^bbg-avgo-openai-20261007]. Per Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal reported that Broadcom is arranging more than $50 billion of financing for the chips[^bbg-avgo-openai-20261007]. Bloomberg, citing one person, reported that no formal process has begun, and that early talks indicate the two companies could seek to raise around $30 billion of debt[^bbg-avgo-openai-20261007]. Ava: Bloomberg also reported that the $60 billion debt financing tied to Anthropic has launched[^bbg-avgo-openai-20261007]. Last week’s Weekend Update covered Bloomberg’s October 2 report on that package[^ep-w2640]. Ava: UnitedHealth. On October 5, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced an investigation of UnitedHealth over alleged deceptive and unlawful practices that, per his office, have denied Texans access to medically necessary care[^tx-ag-unh-20261005]. His office said it has issued civil investigative demands to UnitedHealth to collect evidence of potential violations of the Texas Deceptive Trade Practices Act and other Texas laws[^tx-ag-unh-20261005]. Ava: The earnings calendar for next week. On Tuesday, October 13: Goldman Sachs[^earn-gs], JPMorgan[^earn-jpm] and UnitedHealth[^earn-unh]. On Wednesday, October 14: ASML[^earn-asml], Morgan Stanley[^earn-ms] and Fastenal[^earn-fast]. Ava: On Thursday, October 15: Interactive Brokers[^earn-ibkr] and Taiwan Semiconductor[^earn-tsm]. Per its 6-K, Taiwan Semiconductor’s September revenue was about NT$512 billion, up about 55% from a year earlier and down 0.6% from August[^6k-tsm-sep-20261008]. Ava: Netflix reports the following Tuesday, October 20[^earn-nflx]. Close Ava: That’s the Weekend Update. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode 2642. Download this week’s Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us, and send us a note through the Substack. Disclaimer Ava: This podcast is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you. The views expressed on this podcast are the host alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the host nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The host and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future, and may or may not hold positions in the securities mentioned. Sources * Bloomberg. (2026, October 7). Broadcom holds early talks about financing for OpenAI chips. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-07/broadcom-plans-50-billion-f

  7. Oct 7

    $1 a User vs. 15%

    Mike Nicoletti, Hunt Lawrence, and Jason Wallace walk this week’s Cash Flow Memo: oil stuck in triple digits, a 10-year Treasury headed toward 6%, SpaceX’s $40 billion Nvidia build, the agent threat to Apple’s App Store, and what a trillion-dollar valuation buys at Eli Lilly. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * SpaceX is borrowing $40 billion with Nvidia credit support for what is close to a turnkey rack build, and Mike puts SpaceX’s Nvidia spend at $180 to $280 billion next calendar year against a Street number near $400 billion for Nvidia’s fiscal 2027, so one customer could equal half of the prior year’s revenue. * Brent sits at $100 and WTI in the low $90s with Hunt calling the Iran standoff an indefinite stalemate, and the 12-month backwardation has narrowed from about $20 to $10 to $12 as the 2027 strip rises; natural gas is holding in the $3s despite Permian associated gas driving two-thirds of the supply increase. * Hunt expects the $1.55 trillion deficit shown in Exhibit A to land closer to $1.9 to $2 trillion and, with the 10-year Treasury at 5.5%, predicts 6% by the first half of December, a direct hit to mortgage rates and to Lennar, Home Depot, and Lowe’s. * Jason’s Apple bear case is that Meta’s Muse agent moves transactions off Apple hardware: a two-core cloud instance lists at 4 cents an hour and likely costs Meta about $1 per user per month, so $7 of transaction volume at Apple’s 15% fee covers it, which threatens App Store services growth while Apple pushes into low-margin home hardware with LG. * Lilly trades at a $1 trillion equity value on $23 billion of free cash flow (Exxon generates $50 billion, Apple $130 billion), which Jason defends on follow-on GLP-1 patents and out-of-cycle pipeline acquisitions; he expects Grail’s Galleri test to win a limited-cancer approval after a 7 to 2 advisory vote on risk-benefit and a split vote on effectiveness. Show Notes [00:33] Oil Exhibit C is unchanged. Brent is at $100 and WTI in the low $90s, and Hunt sees the Iran standoff as a stalemate with no end date. [01:42] Backwardation The 2027 oil price keeps rising, cutting the 12-month backwardation from about $20 to $10 to $12. The market is pricing the stalemate as lasting. [02:13] Gas Natural gas is holding in the $3s as new LNG trains come on, but high oil prices keep pushing associated gas out of the Permian. [02:55] Deficit Exhibit A needs a rework, with the deficit likely closer to $2 trillion. Hunt predicts a 6% 10-year Treasury by the first half of December and flags the hit to homebuilders and home improvement retailers. [05:42] SpaceX’s $40 Billion SpaceX is borrowing $40 billion with Nvidia credit support for a near-turnkey rack build. Mike sizes SpaceX’s Nvidia spend at $180 to $280 billion next calendar year. [08:02] Nvidia’s Pace Why SpaceX builds on Nvidia alone: a yearly generation leap that no one else matches, plus the cooling, power, and architecture that let Colossus run 100,000 coherent GPUs. [10:33] Apple Jason was an Apple bull for about a day. The home hardware push with LG is a low-margin bet in a crowded market, and the company needs a software leader. [12:32] Agents vs. the App Store Meta’s Muse gives every user a cloud server for roughly $1 a month. Transactions that run there never touch Apple hardware or Apple’s 15% fee. [17:11] Lilly at a Trillion Hunt lines up the 12 trillion-dollar tech companies against Exxon, Lilly, JP Morgan, and Walmart. Jason makes the case for Lilly’s follow-on GLP-1 patents and pipeline acquisitions. [20:33] Grail’s FDA Vote The advisory panel split on Galleri’s effectiveness and voted 7 to 2 that the benefit outweighs the risk. Jason expects approval for a limited set of cancers. [23:00] Hospital Price Letters The FTC sent warning letters to a couple dozen large hospital groups over price transparency rules that have gone unenforced for years. [23:57] After the Midterms What a Democratic House and Senate would mean for the administration’s healthcare agenda, and why food supply reform and price transparency look bipartisan. [26:44] Food Additives How the generally-recognized-as-safe system lets manufacturers self-certify new ingredients, and how a 1997 change made notifying the FDA voluntary. Download this week’s Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and subscribe. More Apple and more on food additives next week. Cashtags $AAPL $AMD $AMZN $GOOGL $GRAL $HD $ILMN $INTC $JPM $LEN $LLY $LOW $META $MU $NVDA $TSLA $VRTX $WMT $XOM This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

    $1 a User vs. 15%

  8. Oct 4

    Weekend Update - W2640

    ▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down → The Tape — W2640 Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-09-25 → 2026-10-02. Composite is rank-sum percentile of FCF Yield + NTM Revenue Growth (higher = better balance). Banks and finance-book names shown separately. Telltales Yield — Top 10 Telltales Yield — Bottom 10 This Week’s Reporters No universe names reporting in the coming 7 days. Sector Medians Debt / FCF Watch (highest leverage on TTM FCF) Weekly Price Movement Top 5 (week-over-week price) Bottom 5 (week-over-week price) Banks (shown separately — FCF metric not meaningful) Finance-book — FCF not comparable Customer-float / captive-finance / reserve businesses (IBKR broker float, KMX CarMax Auto Finance, PYPL customer funds, CRCL stablecoin reserves). The memo’s operating-FCF method overstates their FCF, so they are held off the ranked leaderboard pending the P&L-waterfall rebuild. Data Gaps 91 of 92 ranked-eligible names ranked. 1 dropped for missing FCF yield or NTM revenue growth; 7 shown separately (banks + finance-book, FCF not comparable). Source: cashflow-memo master_2026-10-02.csv. NTM growth from analyst-estimates consensus. Composite is a percentile rank, not a recommendation. The Issue — This Week's Brief Reports on Broadcom’s financing. The Cashflow Memo Micron’s Fourth Quarter and Broadcom’s Financing Commitments Micron’s fiscal fourth quarter, the financing commitments in Broadcom’s 10-Q, and NextEra’s Texas power project The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot reports what the companies in the Cash Flow Memo disclosed this week and what is scheduled next. About 9 minutes. Download the memo at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode E2641. Chapter markers * Time | Segment * 0:00 | Intro: what the episode covers * 0:40 | Theme: AI infrastructure financing (Broadcom, NextEra) * 3:20 | Deep dive: Micron’s fiscal fourth quarter * 5:50 | Rapid-fire: Regeneron, UnitedHealth, Interactive Brokers, the earnings calendar * 8:00 | Close * 8:20 | Disclaimer Full transcript Intro Ava: Welcome to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot. Ava: This week, from the companies in the Cash Flow Memo: reports on Broadcom’s financing for Anthropic, NextEra’s Texas power project, Micron’s fiscal fourth quarter, and the Sanofi and Regeneron expansion. Ava: The show is produced entirely with AI tools, and the voice you’re hearing is AI-generated. The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you. Theme: AI infrastructure financing Ava: Reuters reported on Thursday, citing Anthropic’s confidential IPO filing, that Broadcom agreed to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion in convertible notes[^reuters-avgo-anthropic-20261001]. Per Reuters, that is about a third of a $125 billion, five-year commitment by Anthropic to lease TPU computing capacity[^reuters-avgo-anthropic-20261001]. Ava: Broadcom’s 10-Q, filed September 10, describes a backstop and convertible notes, each tied to customer lease agreements[^10q-avgo-note10-20260910]. It does not name a customer. The backstop was given to a financial partner, on a customer’s five-year lease obligations. If the customer defaults on a lease, Broadcom owes the difference between 85% of the outstanding lease amounts and the value received from selling the AI racks[^10q-avgo-note10-20260910]. The 10-Q states the limit this way. Broadcom 10-Q (quoted): Our maximum potential liability under the Backstop upon the deployment of all AI racks, on an undiscounted basis, was approximately $29 billion.[^10q-avgo-note10-20260910] Ava: The 10-Q says no amounts have been paid under the backstop[^10q-avgo-note10-20260910]. The 10-Q also describes convertible notes. Under certain circumstances, and if needed, a customer may issue Broadcom up to $42 billion of them, to be used solely for the customer’s obligations under the lease agreements. As of August 2, none had been issued[^10q-avgo-note10-20260910]. Ava: On Friday, Bloomberg reported that Blackstone and a group of banks are assembling $60 billion of financing for AI chips[^bbg-avgo-syndicate-20261002]. Bloomberg reported that it includes a $42 billion senior secured tranche, that Broadcom will provide residual value support on that tranche, and that the deal has not been announced[^bbg-avgo-syndicate-20261002]. Ava: Reuters also reported this week, from the same Anthropic filing, that Anthropic expects to spend at least $518 billion on infrastructure over the next decade, across six partners, with about 80% of it non-cancelable or payable whether or not the capacity is used[^reuters-anthropic-518-20260929]. Ava: The Cash Flow Memo dated September 28 has Broadcom at 51 times free cash flow, on $34 billion of free cash flow[^memo-avgo-20260928]. Ava: Next, NextEra. On Wednesday, NextEra Energy, Lewis Energy Group and Related Digital said the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Republic of Korea selected Related Companies and NextEra Energy Resources, in partnership with Lewis Energy Group, to develop Project Star in Encinal, Texas[^pr-nee-projectstar-20260930]. Per the companies’ release, it is a $22 billion natural gas power campus with about 6.5 gigawatts of generation, built to support a 5-gigawatt data center campus on an adjacent site[^pr-nee-projectstar-20260930]. Ava: The release says the campus will be owned jointly by the Republic of Korea and the United States, and built and operated by the Related and NextEra Energy Resources joint venture[^pr-nee-projectstar-20260930]. Initial generation is expected as early as 2029, subject to permitting and approvals[^pr-nee-projectstar-20260930]. Deep dive: Micron Ava: Micron reported its fiscal fourth quarter on Wednesday. Per the 8-K, revenue was $54 billion, against $41 billion in the prior quarter and $11 billion a year earlier[^8k-mu-ex991-20260930]. Net income was about $38 billion[^8k-mu-ex991-20260930]. Ava: For the fiscal year, revenue was $133 billion, against $37 billion the year before[^8k-mu-ex991-20260930]. Adjusted free cash flow for the year was $62 billion, after $27 billion of capital expenditures, net of government incentives[^8k-mu-ex991-20260930]. Ava: Micron’s guidance for the current quarter is revenue of $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion, at a gross margin of about 86%[^8k-mu-ex991-20260930]. Ava: In its prepared remarks for the earnings call, Micron said fiscal fourth-quarter DRAM revenue was about $40 billion, 73% of total revenue[^mu-remarks-20260930]. Ava: Micron said it has signed 26 strategic customer agreements, which it estimates at more than 35% of its revenue through 2030[^mu-remarks-20260930]. Three-quarters of that estimated revenue has a defined pricing framework, and the remaining quarter is priced periodically, based on market prices[^mu-remarks-20260930]. Ava: Micron put its remaining performance obligations at about $150 billion[^mu-remarks-20260930]. Customer cash deposits received in the quarter were about $12 billion[^mu-remarks-20260930]. Ava: For calendar 2027 and 2028, Micron expects industry DRAM bit shipments to grow in the low-20s percent range and NAND in the mid-20s, and expects the industry to remain supply constrained in both years[^mu-remarks-20260930]. Chief executive Sanjay Mehrotra, in the prepared remarks, on DRAM supply. Sanjay Mehrotra (quoted): Even with additional industry DRAM cleanroom space plans, with robust demand trends including new upside requests from customers, we do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance.[^mu-remarks-20260930] Ava: Micron said it plans to increase capital expenditures in fiscal 2027 versus its prior plans[^mu-remarks-20260930]. Ava: The Cash Flow Memo dated September 28 has Micron at 28 times free cash flow, on $43 billion of free cash flow, figures that predate this report[^memo-mu-20260928]. Rapid-fire Ava: Page 19 of the memo. Sanofi and Regeneron announced on Thursday an expansion of their antibody collaboration[^pr-regn-sanofi-20261001]. Per the release, Regeneron receives $1 billion upfront, with up to $7 billion more in milestone payments[^pr-regn-sanofi-20261001]. Ava: The companies will co-develop and co-commercialize four new long-acting antibodies, and share costs and any profits equally[^pr-regn-sanofi-20261001]. Regeneron also has an option to include Sanofi’s lunsekimig, exercisable when its phase 3 studies in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease are complete[^pr-regn-sanofi-20261001]. Ava: Also on page 19, UnitedHealth. Bloomberg reported on Thursday that UnitedHealth is dropping 2027 Medicare Advantage plans covering about 390,000 members[^bbg-unh-maplans-20261001]. UnitedHealth reports earnings on Tuesday, October 13[^earn-unh]. Ava: Interactive Brokers released its September metrics on Thursday. Per the release, client accounts were 5.6 million, 35% higher than a year earlier, and daily average revenue trades were 4.1 million, 6% higher[^pr-ibkr-metrics-20261001]. Interactive Brokers reports earnings on Thursday, October 15[^earn-ibkr]. Ava: On page 13 of the memo, the banks. The SEC on Friday censured two JPMorgan units in a settled order[^sec-jpm-order-20261002]. The order finds that they permitted a person subject to a statutory disqualification to be involved in security-based swap transactions, and failed to supervise that person[^sec-jpm-order-20261002]. The sanctions are a censure and a cease-and-desist order[^sec-jpm-order-20261002]. CNBC, citing The Wall Street Journal, reported that Goldman Sachs’s board has discussed president John Waldron succeeding David Solomon as chief executive as early as next year[^cnbc-gs-succession-20260929]. CNBC also reported that a Goldman spokesman said there is no definitive timeline for succession[^cnbc-gs-succession-20260929]. Ava: The earnings calendar. Goldman Sachs[

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About

An investing podcast + substack for people who want to compound their wealth over the long run and don't mind sailing analogies telltales.substack.com

Information

  • Creator
    by Top Mark Capital
  • Years Active
    2021 - 2026
  • Episodes
    318
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Mike Nicoletti
  • Show Website
    Telltales

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