The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

Nate Hagens
  • 4.8 (458)
  • Earth Sciences
  • Updated Weekly

The Great Simplification is a podcast that explores the systems science underpinning the human predicament. Through conversations with experts and leaders hosted by Dr. Nate Hagens, we explore topics spanning ecology, economics, energy, geopolitics, human behavior, and monetary/financial systems. Our goal is to provide a simple educational resource for the complex energetic, physical, and social constraints ahead, and to inspire people to play a role in our collective future. Ultimately, we aim to normalize these conversations and, in doing so, change the initial conditions of future events.

  1. 1d ago

    Protect the Irreversible: What Matters Most in an Uncertain Future? | How to Think About the Future Pt 6, Frankly 151

    This week's video is the sixth part in Nate's ongoing series, How to Think About the Future. Today, Nate turns from describing possible futures to exploring how we can make decisions when certainty is impossible. He introduces a framework for planning under uncertainty by distinguishing between two common mistakes – failing to respond to real risks, and taking decisive action based on incomplete understanding. Touching on examples like soil health, social trust, and children's developmental windows, Nate also advocates that the most important compass for navigating the future is learning to distinguish between what can be rebuilt and what cannot. Overall, this episode examines how thoughtful planning requires balancing action with humility, while avoiding solutions that unintentionally deepen the problems they seek to solve. Nate explores the value of "robust actions" that create benefits across many possible futures, while also reflecting on the role of personal calling alongside practical resilience. He ends with a call for listeners to act where their agency is most visible – rather than seeking certainty about what lies ahead, Nate offers a way of seeing the world that helps us remain grounded as the landscape around us continues to change. What deserves our greatest protection, if some losses can be recovered while others cannot? Why is it important to be aware of the cognitive errors we might be making when evaluating the bigger picture? And how can we make meaningful decisions when the future is uncertain and every choice involves tradeoffs? (Recorded July 5th, 2026)   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

  2. 3d ago

    It's Not Just Hormuz: The Chokepoints Changing Global Shipping Forever with Sal Mercogliano

    Roughly a fifth of the world's oil and more than a tenth of all global trade has been navigating a literal minefield, a wary insurance industry, and whipsawing geopolitics since late February of this year. But looking beyond the Strait of Hormuz closure itself, the same pattern threatens every critical chokepoint: passages open to all shipping for the past 80 years are becoming strategic assets within a geopolitical power struggle. If we continue this trend, what does a more fragmented, higher-cost, higher-risk maritime system mean for the norms and safety of the shipping industry, and what are the ripple effects for global trade?  In this episode, Nate is joined by maritime historian and former merchant mariner, Sal Mercogliano, to break down what the ongoing events in the Strait of Hormuz reveal about the state of global shipping and trade. Sal traces how the rise of unregistered "dark fleet" tankers and increasing risk – and subsequent cost – of maritime trade are reshaping the safety and stability of shipping across the globe. He also walks through who actually "owns" the Strait of Hormuz, the improvised insurance and security arrangements now propping up tanker traffic, and the human toll on the roughly 20,000 mariners who have been stranded, attacked, or killed since the crisis began. Ultimately, Sal examines how the 80-year-old norm of 'freedom of the seas' is being tested by this standoff, exposing the fragile foundation of our hyper-complex, just-in-time shipping system.  Why does the volume and velocity of modern trade make a conflict like the one in the Strait of Hormuz so much more consequential than at any other time in history? Is "might makes right" becoming the central pillar governing the world's oceans, and if so, what does that mean for the cost of everything that arrives by ship? And what does this conflict reveal about the stability of our highly interdependent system as global powers continue to fracture and isolate? (Conversation recorded on June 29th, 2026)    About Sal Mercogliano: Dr. Salvatore R. Mercogliano is an associate professor of history at Campbell University in North Carolina and adjunct professor at the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy. He holds a bachelor of science in marine transportation from the State University of New York Maritime College, along with a merchant marine deck officer license (unlimited tonnage 2nd mate), a master's in maritime history and nautical archaeology from East Carolina University, and a Ph.D. in military and naval history from the University of Alabama. He is also the host of the popular podcast What's Going on With Shipping, which focuses on Maritime Industry Policy, current events in the Maritime Sector, and Maritime History.   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

  3. Jul 10

    Foundations Before Outcomes: The Future Beneath Your Feet | How to Think About the Future Pt 5, Frankly 150

    Today, in Part 5 of the "How to Think About the Future" series, Nate scales his exploration of civilizational futures down to the future of a single human life and analyzes how the same patterns that shape economies, power, geopolitics, and Earth systems turn inward. Building on the framework developed throughout the series, he describes how the factors from material throughput to personal agency are underpinned by our own physical/mental health and our web of relationships. Nate emphasizes that we cannot build any stable future on top of cracking foundations, pointing toward the importance of cultivating a strong base of personal health and community to operate from. By outlining these scenarios – both on the personal and civilizational scales – Nate challenges the long-held assumptions that equate growth with success. He explores why the most regenerative paths available to us often look like decline from the outside and discusses the ways in which our civilizational foundations have been obscured by a societal trajectory of constant growth. Overall, this episode offers a mirror for reflecting on the landscapes we inhabit today and the quiet work required to navigate toward a better future for humanity and the biosphere. Are your daily choices strengthening your foundations, or are they slowly eroding the capacity you'll need for what's ahead? Which personal future scenario do you feel you're living in today, and what patterns are quietly shaping where you're headed? And how would your life change if you measured success by regeneration instead of productivity or growth? (Recorded July 5th, 2026)   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

  4. Jul 8

    Can Money Serve Life? How to Fund Communities Doing the Real Work with Matthew Monahan

    Every year, hundreds of billions of dollars flow through global philanthropy, yet only a small fraction reaches environmental, climate, and nature-related causes. Meanwhile, in small towns and rural communities around the world, a hidden throughline of regenerative work is already underway. This work rarely waits for large-scale funding to begin, but it does need resourcing to grow into replicable movements capable of propelling system-wide change. What would it take to build financial infrastructure that actually gets capital to the people already doing the work of healing land and community? In this episode, Nate is joined by Matthew Monahan, co-founder of the nonprofit Ma Earth, to explore the emerging field of regenerative finance. Matthew digs into why top-down, siloed, and low-trust funding systems keep capital from reaching frontline communities, and how tools like open protocols, decentralized data commons, and blockchains might (with healthy consideration) help coordinate trust and resourcing at scale. Matthew also discusses Ma Earth's collective crowdfunding platform that pairs philanthropic dollars with community fundraising for grassroots land and ecological projects – from mangrove restoration in the Pacific to a farmer's cooperative for war amputees in the Congo – and how anyone can become involved.  How might we approach the ambitious goal of attuning money with the health of the planet and the life that inhabits it? Is it possible to use tools like blockchain and crowdfunding to route capital toward life without building a bigger version of the same self-eating machine? And can bottom-up, community-defined funding scale to the size of the problem without losing the trust and specificity that make it work in the first place?  (Conversation recorded on June 29th, 2026)   About Matthew Monahan: Matthew Monahan is the co-founder of Ma Earth, a community-led movement aiming to align economic incentives with planetary health and regeneration. He also hosts The Regeneration Will Be Funded, a podcast under Ma Earth that explores intersections of regenerative finance, technology, and ecological health. He's involved in regenerative agriculture, specifically through Mangaroa Farms in Aotearoa, New Zealand, a regenerative farm and educational hub. This farm works on transforming dairy & pine plantations into more regenerative systems, reforesting, building local food infrastructure, and engaging communities.    Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

  5. Jul 2

    A Legacy Worth Celebrating? Reflecting on 250 Years of the American Experiment | Frankly 149

    As America marks its 250th birthday, Nate takes a moment to step outside of the celebrations to seek out a wider boundary perspective on this week's holiday. He poses the question of whether the United States has truly matured as a nation over two and a half centuries, particularly through the lenses of energy, ecology, history, and culture. Nate walks through the extraordinary inheritance of fossil fuels that simultaneously shaped the American story while masking the real foundations of prosperity. He points out that even the symbols of this holiday – from backyard barbecues to fireworks lighting the night sky – are products of complex supply chains that are created by drawing down the living biosphere.  Overall, this conversation reflects on what it means to become an "adult nation" in an age of limits. Alongside the costs of endless expansion, like declining wildlife and lower mental wellbeing, come reasons to hold hope for this nation – our traditions of reinvention, our conservation legacy, and our growing movement toward stronger local communities based in resilience and reciprocity. As the era of "more" begins to fade, perhaps the next chapter of this country will be measured not by what we consume, but by how well we learn to share the table with one another and the rest of life.  How did geography and fossil deposits shape both America's greatest successes and greatest blind spots? What would it mean for America to "grow up" as a nation after 250 years? And if the age of endless expansion is ending, what kind of future might we be capable of building in its place?  (Recorded June 29th, 2026)   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

  6. Jun 26

    Mordor to the Long Repair: How Might Daily Life Feel in the Next Decades? | How to Think About the Future Part 4, Frankly 148

    This week, Nate continues his "How to Think About the Future" series, where he invites listeners to imagine what it's like to live in different versions of the reality that lies ahead. In today's edition, Nate builds upon the frameworks outlined in part three to create four distinct future worlds – composites that emerge from various combinations of economic conditions, geopolitical scenarios, power structures, and Earth systems stability. The resulting worlds are not meant to serve as a prediction, but as a set of thought experiments designed to stretch our imagination and to sharpen our understanding of how societal shifts show up in our everyday lives.  Along the way, Nate also explores why some of these futures seem more stable than others, why economic contraction does not necessarily mean collapse, and why power distribution may matter more than the economic headlines. As Nate unpacks the logic of the four potential worlds, he emphasizes that we are not yet locked into any one outcome – the choices made by communities, regions, and institutions today still determine which valleys remain reachable tomorrow. This episode is an invitation to think beyond conventional narratives of progress and to consider what conditions make a future not just stable, but worth living in. What would daily life actually feel like in a world of managed contraction, ecological overshoot, authoritarian control, or systemic breakdown? Which institutions and practices are most important to preserve today, while the future remains unwritten? And why might the most desirable future also be the one that looks least like progress by today's economic measures? (Recorded June 9th, 2026)   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

  7. Jun 24

    We Weren't Expecting This: What Does a Super El Niño Mean For the Climate? with Tad Patzek

    This year's projected Super El Niño forming in the Pacific could become one of the strongest climate oscillations in over a century. As regions prepare for the effects, and continue to adapt to extreme heat waves, intensifying storms, accelerating ice loss, and increasingly erratic rainfall, scientists and citizens alike are questioning what our new normal will look like under accelerated global heating. From climate basics to unfolding atmospheric research, what do we know about the trajectory our climate is currently on, and what gaps of knowledge still need to be filled?  In this episode, Nate is joined by earth scientist and thermodynamicist Tad Patzek for an exploration of the mechanics and mathematics of global heating itself. Tad explains why CO₂ has such an outsized effect in contrast to its small concentration, how water vapor amplifies the greenhouse effect, and why climate models sometimes get things wrong. His new research, currently under peer review at Geophysical Research Letters, identifies a declining Earth albedo as an additional accelerant of warming over the past 26 years. Combined with accelerating ocean heat absorption, melting ice sheets, and the dynamics of an approaching Super El Niño, Tad argues the warming curve itself may be bending upward. Is the projected Super El Niño a signal of more extreme climatic swings to come? What sort of research is being done to explore and predict climate feedback dynamics that are only partly understood? And if the warming curve is indeed bending upward, what does it mean to plan, prepare, or adapt when the system itself may be moving faster than our models anticipated? (Conversation recorded on June 18th, 2026)    About Tad Patzek: Tad Patzek is Professor Emeritus of Petroleum and Chemical Engineering at the Earth Sciences Division and Director of the Ali I. Al-Naimi Petroleum Engineering Research Center in KAUST, Saudi Arabia. Formerly, he was the Lois K. and Richard D. Folger Leadership Professor and Chairman of the Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering Department at The University of Texas at Austin. Additionally, he was previously a Professor of Geoengineering at the University of California, Berkeley. Prior to joining Berkeley, he was a researcher at Shell Development, a research company managed for 20 years by M. King Hubbert. He is also a full Presidential Professor in Poland, which is the highest honor, and also served as a member of the DOI Macondo Well Advisory Committee. Patzek's current research involves mathematical and numerical modeling of earth systems with emphasis on fluid flow in soils and rocks that can be hydrofractured. He is working on the thermodynamics and ecology of human survival, and food and energy supply for humanity. His current emphasis is the use of unconventional natural gas as a fuel bridge to the possible new energy supply schemes for the world. Patzek is a coauthor of over 400 papers and reports, and most recently, he has cumulated his research into his upcoming book Thermal Power and Climate Change: A Data-Driven Analysis of Cause and Effect, 1800-2100 (Preprint available now)   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

  8. Jun 19

    How to Play 5D Chess: It's Not What You Think | Frankly 147

    In this week's Frankly, Nate explores a pattern of thinking that permeates so many of our conversations: we often decide what we think before we've fully heard what's being said. Using the metaphor of a chessboard, he invites listeners to examine how we process information through a series of expanding perspectives. At the closest range, we instinctively assess people and ideas through lenses of threat, familiarity, and belonging. Soon after, conversations become filtered through ideologies, tribes, and cultural labels. That makes it harder to separate the argument itself from the person or source presenting it. From renewable energy to geopolitical conflicts, Nate presents real-world examples of how these deeply human shortcuts can limit our ability to learn from one another and shape the trajectory of our civilization itself. As the camera continues to pull back, a larger picture emerges. Beyond personalities and factions lie the structural forces shaping our world: energy, economics, and the biophysical realities that underpin civilization. The view widens again to include the living Earth itself, along with the possibility of a different future beyond the trajectory of our current social and economic game. Nate argues that the work of our time is learning to hold those instinctive ways of thinking alongside broader systems perspectives, so we can see the whole board without feeling pushed across it. Are our strongest convictions helping us understand the world, or narrowing what we're able to see? How does the scale of our perspective shape the futures we believe are reachable? And if a more resilient future is possible, what kinds of thinking will help us find a path toward it? (Recorded June 16th, 2026)   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

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The Great Simplification is a podcast that explores the systems science underpinning the human predicament. Through conversations with experts and leaders hosted by Dr. Nate Hagens, we explore topics spanning ecology, economics, energy, geopolitics, human behavior, and monetary/financial systems. Our goal is to provide a simple educational resource for the complex energetic, physical, and social constraints ahead, and to inspire people to play a role in our collective future. Ultimately, we aim to normalize these conversations and, in doing so, change the initial conditions of future events.

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