Geopolitics with Frank McKenna

TD Securities
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Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair at TD Securities and former Premier of New Brunswick and Canadian Ambassador to the United States, discusses geopolitical issues of the day in this monthly series hosted by Peter Haynes, Managing Director at TD Securities. For relevant disclosures, visit https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/geopolitics-podcast-public

  1. JAN 21

    Is Chaos a Distraction?

    Two weeks have passed since Frank last spoke to listeners. Since then, it has been chaos in global geopolitical circles, with Frank wondering whether some of this noise is meant to distract from issues the US Administration would prefer to take a back seat in the current news cycle. Trump's consistent musings about owning Greenland have become a major escalation of geopolitical risk, and Frank worries that it is at this juncture in cross-border disputes when mistakes happen, someone says or does the wrong thing, and a situation destabilizes. He is hopeful that cooler heads prevail, and an off ramp can be found in Davos. Frank still wonders why the US Administration claims it needs Greenland, asking "why buy the cow when you already get the milk for free?" This month's podcast also covers tariffs, Iran, Minnesota, Venezuela, the Board of Peace, the Munroe Doctrine, Canada's China pivot, Legault's resignation in Quebec, Powell's Fed Indictment, populist market interventions by Trump and Prime Minister Carney's "sobering" speech to the World Economic Forum.   This podcast was recorded on January 20, 2026   Chapter Headings: 01:10    US vs NATO on Greenland 06:04    Study Confirms Cost of Tariffs Borne by US Consumer 10:37    Jawboning The Supreme Court Over Tariffs 13:30    Carney's Sobering Speech in Davos 15:19    Trump Rhetoric over Greenland Eerily Similar to Putin and Ukraine 18:17    Iranian Military Quells Uprising 20:20    Two Weeks Later – What Lies Ahead for Venezuela 23:48    Trump's Alternative to the UN – A So-Called "Board of Peace" 27:14    Listener Mailbag – MAGA Supporter Asks Frank about Munroe Doctrine 35:38    Trump's Populist Marketplace Interventions 37:54    ICE and Minnesota 40:10    Powell and Fed Independence 41:40    Legault Resignation Throws Open Quebec's Leadership Race For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    50 min

  2. JAN 8

    The Impact of Nicolas Maduro's Arrest on Geopolitics in the Western Hemisphere

    Episode 73 of Geopolitics is a special episode in which Frank discusses the implications for global geopolitics of the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Frank discusses backlash in Washington of the decision to arrest Maduro without Congressional authority, what it means for possible next moves for the United States as it flexes its military muscle in the Western Hemisphere for both Venezuelan neighbors but also Greenland and Canada. In addition, he ponders the potential that the Maduro move spawns global spheres of influence as the US implements its National Security Strategy (coined by President Trump as "the Donroe Document." For Canadians, Frank discusses implications of this geopolitical theatre for Canada's energy sector and whether a new pipeline to tidewater is more or less feasible today than last week and whether the prospect of growth in Venezuelan heavy oil production truly provides US leverage in upcoming CUSMA negotiations.   This podcast was recorded on January 7, 2026   Chapter Headings:   01:10 - The Capture of Maduro – US Motivation and Next Day Plans 06:38 - Trump Chooses Incumbent over Nobel Prize Winning Opponent 12:54 - Rebuilding Venezuela's Oil Infrastructure 17:32 - Spheres of Influence – Where Does Canada Stand? 29:54 - Sleeping With One Eye Open – Will Trump Follow Through on Saber Rattling? 37:38 - Mark Wiseman's Chops as Ambassador 39:18 - Implications for Canada's Energy Sector For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    46 min

  3. 12/16/2025

    December Musings and Predictions for 2026

    Episode 72 of Geopolitics is a mix of current events and predictions for 2026. Frank discusses the U.S.'s recently released National Security Strategy that some pundits believe is akin to the original Monroe Doctrine published following the American Revolution that aimed to establish U.S. dominance over the Western Hemisphere.  After praising outgoing Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman on her retirement announcement, Frank provides advice to the next person in the foxhole for Canada in Washington. He discusses the continued aisle crossings in Ottawa pushing the Liberals near to a majority and reminds listeners that the practice is nothing new in Canada. Before getting to his 2026 predictions, Frank weighs in again on the MTG vs Trump saga and finally whether Indiana's rebuttal of President Trump means the end of gerrymandering…for now. In terms of predictions, you won't want to miss his thoughts on the future of CUSMA, the Trans Mountain Pipeline, the War in Ukraine, and the Mid-term elections in Washington.   This podcast was recorded on December 15, 2025   Chapter Headings:   00:43 - The Monroe Doctrine 2.0 07:52 - Advice for the Incoming Ambassador in Washington 12:18 - Another MP Crosses the Aisle 17:12 - MTG Questions Whether Trump is America First 23:09 - The End of Gerrymandering…for Now 26:14 - 2026 Predictions For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    43 min

  4. 11/28/2025

    Carney Travels the World While Managing Complex Domestic Agenda

    Frank comes out on fire in Episode 71 when questioned on his recent travels to the Middle East, describing the region as hot, and clearly justifying the Prime Minister's recent outreach for partnerships with countries in the region. He summarizes thoughts on the recent COP 30 and the G20 Summits, as well as trade negotiations with the US and he highlights a sleeper issue in Canada, which is the growing popularity of a separatist party in Quebec with a mandate to vote for separation. He finishes with thoughts on political meddling allegations, Marjorie Taylor Greene's resignation, and other hot topics in Washington.   This podcast was recorded on November 26, 2025   Chapter Headings:   03:41    Ukraine Peace Plan Makes Progress – Why Now? 08:31    Is COP 30 Past its Best Before Date? 13:33    The BC Pipeline Debate 24:04    Quebec Separation Chatter 26:26    Trade Negotiations and Political Meddling 39:10    Is Marjorie Taylor Greene's Resignation a Canary? 41:23    Other News in Washington For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    50 min

  5. 11/10/2025

    Trade Update and Canada's Budget – Rona and Frank Debate

    Episode 70 of Geopolitics is a bonus episode taken from a panel at our recent Portfolio Management and Market Structure Conference. Frank McKenna is joined by his TD colleague The Honorable Rona Ambrose, Deputy Chairwoman, TD Securities, and former leader of the Conservative Party in Canada, for a discussion that includes the on again off again trade negotiations between Canada and the US and a review of last week's budget in Canada. While Frank admits the budget was likely over-hyped and a disappointment, Rona takes direct aim at the fact the incumbent government clearly stated that younger generations will need to suffer and made no attempts to appease the interest of the other parties in parliament with its budget decisions. Frank admits he still does not know what Trump's end goal in trade negotiations with Canada is but believes the end deal between the two countries is likely to be much narrower than anticipated originally.      This podcast was recorded on November 6, 2025   Chapter Times:   02:09 - Trump's Real Motivation for Suspending Trade Negotiations 20:33 - The View Inside the Republican Party on Trade 23:09 - Supreme Court Appears Skeptical of Trump's Use of IEEPA 28:14 - Signals from Off Cycle US Elections 34:54 - Gerrymandering 41:07 - First Take on Canada's Budget For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    56 min

  6. 10/21/2025

    Never a Dull Moment in Washington

    In Episode 69, Frank invites Chris Krueger, Strategist with TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, to join the pod to help navigate the fast-moving developments in Washington including the government work stoppage, Canada-US trade negotiations, and the postmortem of President Trump's recent Whitehouse meeting with Ukraine President Zelensky. Frank describes trade negotiations as slogging along given that the two countries have incredibly inter-twined economies, and a complex trade and security relationship. Pipelines are back in the news and Frank weighs the pros and cons of a Keystone restart or pipeline to the Northern BC Coast with continued expansion of existing infrastructure. Chris provides our mostly Canadian audience with a 101 on gerrymandering, and its impact on mid-term elections. The two geopolitical experts finish up discussing the merits of a Nobel Peace Prize for Trump and potential end to the war in Ukraine.   This podcast was recorded on October 20, 2025   Chapter Times: 01:31 - Slogging Through Canada-US Trade Negotiations 13:39 - Carney's Balancing Act with Canada's Premiers 17:09 - Setting the Record Straight on Tariff Revenues 22:20 - Pipelines Back in the News in Canada 29:07 - Explaining Washington's Work Stoppage 33:53 - Is Stellantis's Brampton Plant Closure the Canary? 38:33 - Gerrymandering Gone Wild 43:41 - Peace Negotiations in Middle East and Ukraine   For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    49 min

  7. 09/24/2025

    Franks Funk

    Frank comes to the September podcast taping in a somber mood, strange for someone who prides himself as the eternal optimist.  What has Frank in a mood? Well, he lists several issues with the current US Administration that has him questioning the United States's position as leader of the free world. Meanwhile he is very concerned about the prospect Trump triggers the shotgun clause on CUSMA wiping out the existing agreement, a possibility allowed under Article 34.6 of the Agreement. Hence the need for Canada's Prime Minister Carney to continue to strengthen trading relationships outside of the US such as was evidenced with his recent meeting with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. Frank likes the appointment of Dawn Farrell to head the Major Projects Office and is bullish on the prospects that the one project, one review, one decision two-year time frame for Major Projects is realistic. Frank provides his thoughts on free speech in the wake of Charlie Kirk's assassination and on Putin's addiction to War. Finally, Frank cracked his familiar smile again when talking about his beloved Blue Jays as we do at the end of every podcast.   This podcast was recorded on September 23, 2025 at 6 pm EST   Chapter Headings: 00:52 Frank's Somber Mood Towards Canada-US Relations 06:33 Will Trump Renegotiate or Blow-Up CUSMA? 20:50 Carney Branches Out Trading Relationships 23:09 Dawn Farrell and Canada's Five Major Infrastructure Projects 28:58 Canada Joins Other G7 Countries in Recognizing Palestinian State 34:33 The Polarized US Political Landscape 41:26 Putin's Addiction to War For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    49 min

  8. 08/20/2025

    CUSMA, Ukraine and Gerrymandering in Frank's Crosshairs

    Frank is back after a month off with a lot to cover in the current Episode 67.  He starts with a review of Canada's handling of forest fires, an area where Canada is arguably a world leader, and what can be done in the new normal to mitigate risk of future forest fire growth.  Frank discusses the pros and cons of back to work legislation by the Federal Government used in the Air Canada flight attendant strike and is frustrated whenever one party has too much leverage in work disruptions.  After covering the latest on trade negotiations between Canada and the US and the potential sale of infrastructure assets by Canada's Federal Government, he switches gears to US politics, finishing up on Trump's dramatic efforts to broker an end to the Ukraine – Russian war and the gerrymandering of districts fight on-going in Texas.   This podcast was recorded on August 19, 2025.   Chapter Headings   04:40 - Forest Fire Mitigation Tools 10:08 - Air Canada Strike Resolution is Teaching Moment 18:25 - Canada's New Normal Trade Arrangement with US 33:23 - Will Canada's Federal Government Sell Infrastructure Assets? 37:38 - Trump's Full Court Press to End the War in Ukraine 44:39 - Gerrymandering in Texas – A Precursor to More Partisan Politics   For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/legal#PodcastDisclosure. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.

    54 min
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Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair at TD Securities and former Premier of New Brunswick and Canadian Ambassador to the United States, discusses geopolitical issues of the day in this monthly series hosted by Peter Haynes, Managing Director at TD Securities. For relevant disclosures, visit https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/geopolitics-podcast-public

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