Australian Property Talk

Redom Syed
  • 5.0 (1)
  • Investing
  • Updated Weekly

Welcome to Australian Property Talk — I'm Redom, a property fanatic.  I love sharing stories from the 1000's of investors i represent in my day job at one of Australia's biggest mortgage broking companies, Flint. I have two brilliant co-hosts who bring a perfect blend of expertise on the economy, property trends and where to buy real estate!  One is a former Treasury economist, Curtis Stewart, who runs FlintInvest - an award winning mortgage broking company for property investors Australia-wide.  His officially the smartest person i know, and full of golden nuggets! My other co-host is Adi Chanda, a man everybody loves, a seasoned buyers agent with a giant property portfolio and fellow property nerd. Adi runs Alaya Property with me, adding in a unique economics driven property strategy that outperforms all the herd following data-driven agents dominating the buyers agency scene in 2025.

  1. 2d ago

    Why Sydney prices are set to fall a second time

    Send us Fan Mail 👉 Want to buy BEFORE the data shifts, not after? Book a FREE strategy call with Curtis here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest The property cycle is about to take another turn, and it's not the one most people were hoping for. Instead of prices flattening out and recovering this spring, I think we're heading into a double dip downturn, where the falls pause briefly and then start again because interest rates look set to rise once more. That second leg changes the timeline for buyers, sellers and anyone sitting on the fence, so I wanted to break down what it means city by city and where I'm actually seeing opportunity right now. In this episode, Curtis and I recast our property price predictions for every capital city. We unpack why prices should have started rising again on their own, why a rate rise at this point in the cycle hits sentiment harder than it would have a few months ago, and what a double dip could look like for Sydney. Then we work through Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and the ACT, and I share the types of property I'd be buying in these conditions. What you'll learn: 📌 Why 1 or 2 more rate rises could turn a pause in prices into a double dip downturn 📌 Why Sydney falls could push close to 15% from peak if there are 2 more rate rises, and what happens if there are none 📌 Why I think strong negotiators can buy 25 to 30% below last year's prices in the $2 million plus Sydney market 📌 Why units in Sydney and Melbourne are holding up far better than houses 📌 Why Melbourne apartments and Darwin are the only markets still rising on our charts 📌 How Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and the ACT are tracking compared with Sydney and Melbourne 📌 The plays I like right now: top-end Sydney houses on big blocks, top-end and western Melbourne houses, and large older Melbourne apartments If you found this useful, subscribe to Australian Property Talk for more breakdowns of where the Australian property market is heading. #AustralianProperty #PropertyMarket #SydneyProperty #MelbourneProperty #PropertyInvesting Chapters 00:00 Intro 00:26 The double dip property downturn 01:45 Why prices should have started rising again 03:24 Why a rate rise now hits sentiment harder 04:17 Our baseline: rates, inflation, energy and AI 05:02 Sydney predictions 05:38 Why now is the time to negotiate hard in Sydney 07:03 What a double dip could look like for Sydney 08:23 The risks sit on the downside 09:16 Houses vs units across the country 10:01 Melbourne predictions 10:53 Melbourne apartments and Darwin: the only risers 12:06 What I'm buying right now 13:42 Large older apartments: a recent Melbourne buy 15:37 Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and the ACT 17:11 Summary and key takeaways This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate. Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

  2. Sep 25

    The dangerous credit signals nobody is watching

    Send us Fan Mail 👉 Want to buy BEFORE the data shifts, not after? Book a FREE strategy call with Curtis here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest One of Australia's biggest developers has gone into liquidation carrying $3.2 billion in private credit loans that won't be properly repaid. Every headline since has asked the same question - is this the first domino in an Australian credit crisis? I don't think it is, and this episode explains why. Curtis arranges this funding for a living, across 20 to 30 private credit providers, so instead of speculating we walked through the actual mechanics. What private credit is, why the big banks walked away from funding developments, and how a $60 million project quietly becomes a $75 million problem with two lenders, mezzanine debt at 20% and an end value that never moved. It turned into an accidental masterclass on how development finance really works, and it ends somewhere more optimistic than the headlines do. What you'll learn: 📍 What private credit actually is, explained simply - lending arranged outside the banking regulatory system 📍 Why CBA and NAB have effectively exited construction funding above a duplex or triplex, and who filled the gap 📍 The step by step anatomy of a development blowing up - cost inflation, a second lender, rollover fees and an end value that stayed at $100 million 📍 Why roughly $100 billion sits in private credit tied to Australian property development, and how fast that's grown 📍 The one condition that would actually make this dangerous, and why I don't think Australia meets it 📍 How diversification and dual arms let a private credit book absorb a default without breaking 📍 Why developer collapses are arguably bullish for prices - fewer completions means less supply into a housing shortage 📍 Where the real risk sits for buyers who've paid a deposit on an unfinished pre-sale Subscribe for a data-first read on the Australian property market every week. #AustralianProperty #PrivateCredit #PropertyDevelopment #PropertyInvesting #HousingCrisis Chapters 00:00 Will private credit cause Australia's next crisis? 00:45 A $3.2 billion collapse and the first domino 01:33 What private credit actually is 03:26 Explaining it to a 5 year old 03:56 The questions these lenders ask - and don't 05:02 The $60 million development, step by step 06:45 Cost inflation blows the budget open 07:48 What's better than one private credit loan? Two 08:32 Rollover fees, delays and a doubled project length 09:44 The end value never moved 10:43 The developer behaviour nobody talks about 12:25 $100 billion and how fast it grew 13:35 Borrower risk and what the underwriting misses 14:58 Who's funding the funders - super funds and investors 16:25 Why I can't see this becoming an Australian crisis 18:31 Concentration risk and the 60 storey tower problem 20:11 Backing housing in the middle of a housing crisis 21:03 Diversification is how the risk gets managed 22:41 The summary - noisy and scary, but solvable 24:29 What happens to buyers who've paid a deposit This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate. Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

  3. Sep 24

    Financial markets are on fire and property is next

    Send us Fan Mail 👉 Want to buy BEFORE the data shifts, not after? Book a FREE strategy call with Curtis here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest Australian 10 year bond yields have pushed to 5.36%, the highest in 15 years, with the 15 year sitting at 5.55%. That isn't an abstract number for bond traders. It's the price of doing nothing, and when the price of doing nothing goes up, every asset carrying risk has to work harder to justify itself. Property included. In this episode Curtis and I unpack what's driving the surge, why it's happening in the US, Japan and the UK at the same time, and what it actually means for Australian housing. We walk through the 3 dominoes stacking up right now: an oil crisis feeding energy and food inflation, a government debt load that's getting more expensive to service by the month, and an AI data centre boom so large it may be holding interest rates up on its own. Then we get into what I'm seeing at the top end of the market, where I think there's a legitimate case to ask for 30% off what you would have paid last year. What you'll learn: 📍 What a government bond actually is, and why the risk-free rate sets the floor under every other return in the economy 📍 Why this is a global repricing rather than an Australian inflation story 📍 The stagflation problem - slow growth alongside sticky inflation - and why it's the hardest setting to govern through 📍 Why the neutral rate may now sit closer to 4% than the 2.5% everyone assumed, and what that changes for borrowers 📍 How an AI data centre boom crowds out other activity the same way a mining boom does, and why the gains land unevenly 📍 What I'm seeing between list prices and sold prices at the top end, and how those discounts ripple down into the middle of the market 📍 Why playing defence has been our framing since the start of the year, and what's actually held up Subscribe for a data-first read on the Australian property market every week. #AustralianProperty #InterestRates #BondYields #Inflation #PropertyInvesting Chapters 00:00 The risk-free rate and why it changes everything 00:43 Bond yields are on fire - what's actually happening 02:46 What a government bond is, in plain English 03:42 Why a higher risk-free rate reprices every other asset 05:08 The numbers - Aussie yields at 15 year highs 05:44 This isn't just Australia - the US, Japan and the UK 07:03 Stagflation - slow growth with high inflation 07:51 Is the neutral rate now closer to 4%? 10:04 Driver 1 - the oil crisis and imported inflation 11:36 Driver 2 - government debt and what it costs each of us 13:00 Driver 3 - the AI and data centre boom 15:08 The crowding out effect, just like a mining boom 16:40 Westpac's read on the spillover 18:30 The dominoes - 3 rate rises, then the May budget 20:03 The property lens - why people aren't transacting 20:32 A legitimate case for 30% off the top end 21:31 How that discount ripples into the middle market 22:07 Playing defence and what's actually held up 22:56 The summary - a tough time to be a property investor This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate. Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

  4. Sep 7

    Will Sydney see its biggest house price fall in 40 years?

    Send us Fan Mail 👉 Want to buy BEFORE the data shifts, not after? Book a FREE strategy call with Curtis here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest Three rate rises and one very anti-property budget have done something to the Sydney market that no bank forecast a year ago. The question we argue about in this episode isn't whether prices are falling. It's how far they go, and whether the worst of it has already happened on the ground while the data is still 6 months behind. In this episode Curtis and I go city by city through what ANZ, NAB and CoreLogic are actually forecasting for the next 12 months, then put our own numbers next to theirs. Curtis calls Sydney at 15.1%, which would make it the biggest fall in 40 years. I land closer to 11 or 12%, and I explain why the composition of the Sydney market makes a 15% aggregate fall very hard to produce. We then work through Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, what listings are signalling in each one, and the single event that flips the whole market. What you'll learn: 📍 What ANZ, NAB and CoreLogic have forecast for every capital city, and exactly where we disagree with them 📍 Why Sydney is behaving like two separate markets, and why the top end is wearing most of the fall 📍 The case for Western Sydney outperforming the national market over the next 5 years 📍 Why I think the trough was yesterday rather than tomorrow, and what a lagging data series hides from buyers 📍 Brisbane listings swinging from 40% below average to 8% above in the space of 7 months, on the lowest yields in the country at 3.3% 📍 Why Adelaide is capped by rents, and why Perth may still have room left in the tank 📍 The labour market numbers the RBA isn't reading, and why I think 6 to 8 rate cuts are coming Subscribe for a data-first read on the Australian property market every week. #AustralianProperty #SydneyProperty #HousePrices #InterestRates #PropertyInvesting Chapters 00:00 The bold call - Sydney's biggest fall in 40 years? 00:32 What the banks are predicting for the next 12 months 01:05 Sydney: the ANZ, NAB and CoreLogic numbers 02:24 Curtis says 15.1%. I say 11 to 12 03:20 Two Sydneys - the top end is wearing the fall 06:19 Western Sydney and the composition problem 07:50 The trough was yesterday, not tomorrow 09:32 Melbourne - the same story, smaller 12:23 Why prices shouldn't keep falling into next year 13:40 Where I'd be buying right now 15:00 Brisbane - listings flip from 40% below to 8% above 15:53 Listings across every capital 17:03 Brisbane on 3.3% yields - is the cycle over? 18:14 Adelaide - capped by rents 18:56 Perth - flat now, more in the tank 20:46 It all hinges on the first rate cut 21:19 The labour market the RBA isn't reading 23:04 Final take - sharp, shallow and nearly over 24:33 Why Western Sydney outperforms from here This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate. Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

  5. Sep 3

    Why banks are fighting over your mortgage right now

    Send us Fan Mail 👉 Want to buy BEFORE the data shifts, not after? Book a FREE strategy call with Curtis here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest Lending is the quietest part of property investing, and right now it is where most people are leaving money on the table. Banks have gone from protecting their margins to fighting for your business. Owner-occupier rates are back in the high 5s, investor rates in the low 6s, and some lenders are throwing cashbacks at borrowers who ask to leave. That window does not stay open forever. As rates fall and lending volumes recover, banks stop fighting this hard. In this episode I sit down with Curtis to unpack the specific lending policies that have shifted in the last few weeks. We cover the refinance war that is still running, the sudden pivot happening in SMSF lending, the rules tightening around trusts and companies, and a private banking policy that most investors have never heard of. We finish on a real client case that took 16 valuations to get across the line. What you'll learn: 📌 Why the mortgage pricing war is still running, and roughly where owner-occupier and investor rates are sitting 📌 What a discharge request actually does, and why some banks only sharpen their pricing after you lodge one 📌 The SMSF pivot since 10 August: lenders can no longer write purchases, so they are chasing refinances instead 📌 The new "easy refinance" rules in SMSF: 12 months of ownership, a clean repayment history, and no servicing test 📌 The bad news on trusts and companies: guarantor loans appearing on credit files and much stricter accountant letter wording 📌 The net asset test inside the private banking arms of the major banks, and the debt level you need before it applies 📌 A real case study: 16 valuations ordered, 1 lender with a usable desktop valuation, 2 that passed servicing If you want the lending side of property explained without the spin, subscribe to Australian Property Talk. #PropertyInvesting #Refinance #SMSF #AustralianProperty #MortgageBroking Chapters 0:00 Intro 0:38 Why a slower market is creating lending opportunities 1:44 The refinance boom and the mortgage pricing war 1:57 Discharge requests and which banks fight to keep you 2:55 Where investor rates are sitting right now 4:37 Why this window closes when the market picks up 5:04 SMSF: lenders pivot from purchases to refinances 5:25 The easy refinance rules, no servicing test 6:56 What it means if your SMSF rate starts with a 7 8:56 The bad news: trust and company lending is tightening 9:20 Guarantor loans now appearing on credit files 9:44 Stricter accountant letters and no-liability declarations 11:16 Do private banks ask the same questions? 13:34 The private banking net asset lending test 14:02 What actually counts as a liquid asset 16:16 The debt threshold to access private banking policy 20:40 Case study: the investor told he was maxed out 21:45 16 valuations, 1 lender that worked 24:07 What a harder lending market really demands This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate. Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

  6. Aug 27

    Why Lower House Prices Suit the Government Right Now

    Send us Fan Mail 👉 Want to buy BEFORE the data shifts, not after? Book a FREE strategy call with Curtis here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest The CGT base resets on 30 June 2027. Once you understand what that single date does, a lot of what is happening in the market right now starts to make more sense. Here is the mechanism. Gains made up to 30 June 2027 keep the existing 50% CGT discount. Gains made after that date fall under indexation instead, which in most cases is the less favourable of the 2. So the higher your valuation sits on that date, the more of your gain is protected by the old rules. Every investor wants that number high. The people counting the tax revenue have the opposite incentive. In this episode Curtis and I work through 3 things: what the CGT reset actually does to your tax bill, what happened to the first home buyers who were pushed into the market on a 5% deposit in 2025, and why SMSF lending on residential property was removed at the same time large industry funds are being encouraged into build to rent. We are both ex-Treasury, so we usually explain policy rather than question the motive behind it. This one is different. 📍 How the 30 June 2027 CGT reset works, and why your valuation on that date matters more than your sale price 📍 A worked example where the same $200,000 gain roughly doubles the amount added to your tax bill 📍 Why a 2025 buyer on a 5% deposit in Sydney or Melbourne can be in negative equity within 6 months 📍 What negative equity actually means day to day: no refinance, no easy sale, effectively a mortgage prisoner 📍 Why fast-growth, buy-and-flip strategies are hit hardest by the new rules 📍 The SMSF residential lending ban, and the build to rent question it raises 📍 What we think changes in the next 12 months, and how to position for it rather than react to it If you want the macro explained without the hype, subscribe. #AustralianProperty #CapitalGainsTax #FirstHomeBuyer #SMSF #PropertyInvesting Chapters 0:00 The claim: the government has an incentive to want prices lower 2:32 The 3 changes we unpack 4:04 Why the attack on aspiration gets to us 5:39 First home buyers and the 5% deposit scheme 9:23 Negative equity within 6 months 10:21 Running the numbers on a $1m Sydney purchase 14:02 The CGT reset on 30 June 2027 explained 15:14 Why a lower valuation on that date means more tax 18:57 Worked example: $800k to $1m, and double the tax bill 22:20 Who gets hit hardest by the new rules 25:36 SMSF lending ban and build to rent 27:55 Follow the money: where the questions get uncomfortable 30:43 What this means for the next 12 months 33:19 Closing thoughts and where to get help This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate. Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

  7. Aug 20

    Banks Are Getting Desperate (New Lending Loopholes Exposed)

    Send us Fan Mail 👉 Want to buy BEFORE the data shifts, not after? Book a FREE strategy call with Curtis here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest We are in the middle of a giant property downturn - and the banks are falling over themselves to open the lending taps back up. Fixed rates are being cut and lenders are rewriting their rule books to get money out the door. To me, those are the early green-light signals that a new cycle is starting. This is not about a flood of new purchases. It is about restructuring and optimising the portfolio you already own while the conditions are in your favour. In this episode I sit down with Curtis to break down the craziest new lending policies on the table right now and exactly how to use them. What you'll learn: 📍 The early signals I watch to call the bottom of a property cycle - falling fixed rates and banks loosening their policies 📍 Why banks lending harder tells you they still see property as the safest asset there is 📍 AMP's 40-year loan term - a 30-year P&I assessment with up to 10 years interest only loaded at the front, for roughly a 5-10% borrowing boost 📍 Why that structure can be a jackpot when another bank assesses your existing debt 📍 Pepper's genuine 40-year term for stretching borrowing power on a new purchase 📍 Liberty joining the First Home Guarantee scheme - 5% deposit, government-covered LMI, with more flexible income rules 📍 The advanced play - separating who owns the property from where the debt sits, using an SPV, trust or company 📍 Why I think now is the window to buy your owner occupier at up to a 20% discount in the $2 million+ market Subscribe for weekly, data-driven breakdowns of the Australian property market. #AustralianProperty #PropertyInvesting #BorrowingPower #HomeLoans #FirstHomeBuyer Chapters 00:00 Banks are opening the lending taps again 02:04 The green-light signals a new cycle is starting 04:39 Why banks lending harder means the bottom is near 06:24 Crazy policy #1: AMP's 40-year loan term 11:56 How much more you can actually borrow 16:46 Why it's a jackpot when you refinance elsewhere 21:04 Pepper's 40-year term for upgraders 22:14 Buying your owner occupier at a 20% discount 25:55 Liberty joins the First Home Guarantee scheme 31:47 The creative one: splitting ownership from debt 36:11 The opportunity inside the 2026 downturn This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate. Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

  8. Aug 17

    Why NOW Is the Best Time to Refinance in Years

    Send us Fan Mail 👉 Want to buy BEFORE the data shifts, not after? Book a FREE strategy call with Curtis here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest The lending market has shattered in the last 90 days. Purchases have gone quiet post-budget, so every bank in the country is now hunting for your business - and that has opened a refinance window we have not seen in years. Here is the hot tip up front: if you have not reviewed your mortgage in a while, right now is when a proper look actually pays off. Rates are sharp, valuations are strong, and the banks are fighting over each other to win refinances. In this episode I sit down with Curtis, who runs a $1 billion+ lending pipeline across every major bank, to unpack exactly what is happening, why it is happening, and the borrowers winning the most right now. What you'll learn: 📍 Why the lending market flipped in 90 days, with NAB lending down around 20% and banks pivoting hard to refinances 📍 Why a slower-growth market means the biggest lever you have is your interest cost, not your next purchase 📍 The real rates now - owner occupier refinances into the 5.95% range, roughly 20 basis points off what most people are sitting on 📍 Why borrowers under 70-80% LVR with a decent loan size are getting the sharpest deals 📍 The 1% refinance buffer that can move you off a 7%+ non-bank rate, even without a full servicing assessment 📍 Why your borrowing power is about 20% higher on a refinance than on a purchase 📍 How desktop valuations across multiple banks can demonstrate a lower LVR and unlock a better rate Subscribe for weekly, data-driven breakdowns of the Australian property market. #AustralianProperty #Refinance #MortgageRates #PropertyInvesting #HomeLoans Chapters 00:00 The lending market just shattered 01:34 Why banks are hunting refinances now 02:36 Slower growth means optimise what you own 04:08 What is really driving the mortgage war 06:27 The rates you can actually get today 10:04 The refinance window - and why it won't last 14:14 Who benefits, and who this doesn't apply to 14:50 Stuck with a non-bank at 7%? The 1% buffer 17:44 Why borrowing power is higher on a refinance 20:07 How desktop valuations work in your favour 21:12 Now is the time to review your rate This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate. Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

See All (212)

About

Welcome to Australian Property Talk — I'm Redom, a property fanatic.  I love sharing stories from the 1000's of investors i represent in my day job at one of Australia's biggest mortgage broking companies, Flint. I have two brilliant co-hosts who bring a perfect blend of expertise on the economy, property trends and where to buy real estate!  One is a former Treasury economist, Curtis Stewart, who runs FlintInvest - an award winning mortgage broking company for property investors Australia-wide.  His officially the smartest person i know, and full of golden nuggets! My other co-host is Adi Chanda, a man everybody loves, a seasoned buyers agent with a giant property portfolio and fellow property nerd. Adi runs Alaya Property with me, adding in a unique economics driven property strategy that outperforms all the herd following data-driven agents dominating the buyers agency scene in 2025.

Information

  • Creator
    Redom Syed
  • Years Active
    2022 - 2026
  • Episodes
    212
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Australian Property Talk
  • Show Website
    Australian Property Talk

You Might Also Like