Two Quants and a Financial Planner

Excess Returns
  • 5.0 (8)
  • Investing
  • Updated Weekly

Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.

  1. 6d ago

    Tech Has Led for 20 Years. Bonds Yield Over 5%. What If Your Biggest Risk Is What You Don’t Own?

    AI financing, tech-stock complacency, and the return of bonds to the portfolio conversation take center stage in this week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap. The question connecting them: how much pain could investors face before rate cuts or government support arrive? Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler revisit conversations with Barry Ritholtz, Jim Paulsen, and Ben Hunt to explore the risks and opportunities surrounding the AI boom. They discuss whether massive investment can translate into lasting returns, who bears the cost of rising electricity demand, and why confidence in an eventual rescue can leave investors overlooking the losses that come first. Topics covered: Barry Ritholtz on AI financing, IPO valuations, and data-center obsolescence riskWhy real demand for AI does not settle the question of investment returnsJim Paulsen on two decades of tech outperformance and investor complacencyThe difference between relative outperformance and recovering from a major drawdownBen Hunt on competition for electricity and the potential cost to consumersBarry Ritholtz on the renewed case for high-quality bonds without calling a market bottomJim Paulsen on why rate cuts can coincide with falling stock pricesBen Hunt on government backstops, alternative asset managers, and the limits of “too big to fail”The potential long-term consequences of repeated rescues for inflation and inequalityTimestamps: 00:00 Introduction and the AI financing question 09:24 Jim Paulsen on tech outperformance and complacency 18:11 Ben Hunt on who pays for AI’s power demands 24:02 Barry Ritholtz on the case for bonds 30:13 Jim Paulsen on rate cuts and falling stocks 36:19 Ben Hunt on the pain before an AI backstop 40:38 The long-term costs of repeated rescues Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  2. Oct 12

    The S&P Hit a Record. 73% of Stocks Are Below Their 50-Day. What Is Your Index Fund Betting On?

    Strong earnings are supporting the rally, but narrow leadership is changing what investors own through an index fund. This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap explores the tension between healthy business results, growing concentration, and the risks of assuming yesterday's winners will keep leading. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler connect insights from Ed Yardeni, Chris Davis, Robert Hagstrom, Katie Stockton, and Tom Maher. We discuss why weak breadth alone isn't a sell signal, what rising bond yields might be telling us, where small-cap earnings could improve, and how to balance letting winners run with managing portfolio risk. Topics covered: Ed Yardeni's "fabulous earnings momentum" and the forces supporting corporate profitsWhy rising earnings can coexist with pressure on stock valuationsChris Davis on passive investing, momentum, and concentration inside index fundsKatie Stockton on why narrow leadership alone doesn't invalidate a bull marketWhy broader participation isn't automatically good news for stock pricesEd Yardeni on rising yields, stronger growth, and the return of the bond vigilantesTom Maher on improving small-cap earnings, reshoring, and AI infrastructure spendingWhy small-cap opportunities still require attention to profitability and business qualityRobert Hagstrom on shrinking margins of safety, position limits, and trimming winnersThe regret on both sides of selling and why portfolio responsibilities matter Timestamps: 00:00 Opening conversation and this week's connections 04:05 Ed Yardeni: earnings momentum supports the rally 11:48 Chris Davis: index concentration and momentum 18:17 Katie Stockton: what weak breadth does and doesn't mean 23:50 Ed Yardeni: rising yields and bond vigilantes 30:24 Tom Maher: the case for small caps beyond big tech 35:08 Small-cap dispersion, fundamentals, and index quality 39:18 Robert Hagstrom: trimming winners and margin of safety 43:27 Selling regret and the responsibilities of managing money Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  3. Oct 5

    Diesel is Spiking. The Market Has the AI Losers Wrong | Are You Betting Too Big?

    Finding a good investment and knowing how much to put into it are different problems. This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap connects overlooked AI opportunities, the risks of concentrated portfolios, and the position-sizing mistakes that can turn favorable odds into losses. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler revisit conversations with Michael Baron, Eric Pachman and Kris Abdelmessih. Michael Baron explains why some apparent AI losers may have valuable data advantages and how his firm manages investments as they become large positions. Eric Pachman traces diesel costs into consumer inflation and shares a grocery-price study that challenged his own assumptions. Kris Abdelmessih explains why surviving long enough to benefit from an edge depends on how much you bet. Topics covered: Michael Baron on AI opportunities beyond the Magnificent SevenWhy proprietary data may protect software companies from disruptionEric Pachman on diesel prices, freight surcharges and the path into CPIWhy refinery constraints and crude-oil differences matter for fuel supplyKris Abdelmessih on how favorable odds can still lead to ruinMichael Baron on letting winners run while managing leverage and portfolio correlationsEric Pachman's comparison of Kroger prices with the government's food basketWhy national averages can differ from your household's inflation experienceKris Abdelmessih on fractional Kelly and uncertainty about your true edgeApplying position-sizing lessons to investing, gambling and insurance decisionsWatch the full interviews: Michael Baron: AI beneficiaries, Tesla, SpaceX and managing concentrated growth portfolios https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVCgmorfy50 Eric Pachman: What headline economic data misses about jobs, diesel costs and grocery prices https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bXUBAPRvr0 Kris Abdelmessih: The Kelly Criterion, bet sizing and staying in the game https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlTPdaT-X6U Chapters: 00:00 Introduction and Michael Baron on overlooked AI winners 09:24 Eric Pachman on diesel costs and inflation 17:28 Kris Abdelmessih on good odds and bad bet sizing 22:44 Michael Baron on concentration and letting winners run 28:35 Eric Pachman tests grocery prices against CPI 33:33 Your household's inflation versus the headline number 37:41 Kris Abdelmessih on why investors use fractional Kelly 43:39 Being honest about your edge and applying Kelly in real life Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  4. Sep 28

    Rates Are Spiking. The S&P Is One Big AI Bet. What If Your Biggest Risk Is What You Don't Own?

    Do you understand the risks in your portfolio, or just the labels on your investments? This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap explores how index concentration, changing bond yields, and lessons from great investors can challenge the assumptions behind your investing decisions. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler revisit conversations with Andy Constan, Jason Hsu, Jack Raines, and Gary Mishuris. They discuss what Treasury buybacks can actually accomplish, why owning the S&P 500 may leave you exposed to a single dominant theme, what small losses can teach investors, and why learning from Warren Buffett requires more than copying him. They also explore China's energy infrastructure and its role in the AI race. Topics covered: Andy Constan on why growth and inflation expectations matter more for long-term rates than Treasury buybacksHow policy announcements can influence markets before policymakers actJason Hsu on AI concentration and the changing risks inside the S&P 500Why diversification requires looking beyond the number of stocks you ownJack Raines on experiencing losses while the stakes are manageableSeparating a small trading account from a long-term investment planGary Mishuris on understanding, applying, and adapting the lessons of great investorsWhy copying Warren Buffett's approach may overlook your own temperament and circumstancesAndy Constan on bonds' return potential relative to cash and their role in a diversified portfolioJason Hsu on China's energy supply, electricity grid, and advantages in powering AIChapters: 00:00 Introduction and Andy Constan on Treasury buybacks 11:35 Jason Hsu on the risks hiding in the S&P 500 17:59 Jack Raines on learning from losses 23:37 Gary Mishuris on why copying Warren Buffett falls short 29:19 Andy Constan on how the case for bonds has changed 36:18 Jason Hsu on China's energy advantage in AI 41:09 Energy innovation and what could change next Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  5. Sep 21

    The "Permabear" Holds 50% Stocks. 7 Sectors Barely Grew. What If Stocks Stop Carrying the Economy?

    Are strong earnings and resilient consumer spending hiding a weaker economy underneath? In this Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler explore why that disconnect matters for stocks, bonds, and the risks investors take in their portfolios. Featuring highlights from David Rosenberg, Jim Paulsen, Jenny Johnson, Bob Pozen, and Alex Edmans in conversation with Kai Wu, this week's discussion looks beyond headline numbers and familiar investing labels. From David Rosenberg's case for bonds to the lessons of Peter Lynch and Costco, the focus is on understanding what actually drives returns. Topics covered: - Why David Rosenberg is considering more bond duration and sees potential for a Treasury short-covering rally. - How David Rosenberg's 50% stock allocation challenges the "permabear" label. - Jim Paulsen's three-way earnings divide: technology, commodity-linked businesses, and the rest of the S&P 500. - What could happen if AI spending and higher oil prices stop carrying earnings growth. - Jenny Johnson's case for private-market access, and the hosts' concerns about retail investors becoming exit liquidity. - Why liquidity needs and financial advice matter when investing in private assets. - Bob Pozen's lessons from Peter Lynch: translating world events into company insights and buying when others retreat. - How different investment vehicles shaped Peter Lynch's and Warren Buffett's strategies. - Alex Edmans' research on employee satisfaction, Costco, and why valuable intangible assets may be overlooked. - David Rosenberg's warning about spending supported by lower savings, credit cards, and stock-market wealth, and why the hosts see concern rather than an immediate recession signal. Timestamps: 00:00 Welcome and this week's investing highlights 06:32 David Rosenberg's portfolio beyond the permabear label 11:22 Jim Paulsen: what headline earnings hide 17:45 Jenny Johnson: private markets and exit liquidity 25:33 Bob Pozen on Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett 30:29 Alex Edmans: Costco and employee satisfaction 37:52 David Rosenberg: what is sustaining consumer spending? 45:55 Why volatility attracts financial-media viewers Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  6. Sep 14

    The Moats Are Invisible. So Is the Risk in Your Bond Fund. What Else Can't You See?

    Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler explore portfolio diversification, hidden bond-fund risks, AI inflation and the competitive advantages that help great businesses compound. Drawing on conversations with Chris Mayer, Robert Hagstrom, Jared Dillian, John Kerschner and Michael Contopoulos, this Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines how to build a portfolio you can stick with and why your investments should account for the risks in your working life. Topics covered: Chris Mayer's invisible moats: how culture and execution can sustain high returns on invested capital. Why Robert Hagstrom sees potential mispricing in competitive advantages that are difficult to measure. Jared Dillian's challenge to Charlie Munger's advice about enduring 50% drawdowns. The Awesome Portfolio, risk tolerance and why comparing everything with the S&P 500 can undermine diversification. How debt-weighted bond indexes can leave investors with more interest rate risk than they expect. Understanding duration and the fixed income sectors that core bond funds can overlook. The case that AI spending, energy demand, labor shortages and rising wealth are inflationary today. How to judge whether AI threatens a business by tracking its most important operating metrics. Why value investors hold losers too long and how a few big winners can carry a portfolio. Dillian's life hedge: accounting for career risk, employer stock and human capital when investing. Timestamps: 00:00 AI backlash and this week's investing lessons 05:03 Robert Hagstrom on invisible moats and mispricing 09:05 Jared Dillian challenges Munger on 50% drawdowns 13:05 Risk-adjusted returns and the benchmarking trap 17:15 The interest rate risk hiding in core bond funds 22:04 Understanding your bond fund's duration 28:23 Why AI's inflation costs can precede its benefits 33:25 Why value investors struggle to sell 37:53 The life hedge: when your job and stocks fall together 42:47 Investing alongside clients versus managing personal risk Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  7. Sep 7

    AI Demand Is Real. The Accounting Games Are Growing. How Long Can Both Be True?

    Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler explore the AI investment boom, Federal Reserve credibility, accounting risks and the dangers of buying stocks to hold forever. Featuring clips from Dan Niles, Ben Hunt, Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig, this Excess Returns Weekly Wrap connects rising AI adoption with questions about earnings quality, market narratives and the slow financial damage caused by gambling and overtrading. Topics covered: Why even the smartest technology companies can overinvest and misread demand How agentic AI could drive another wave of adoption, computing demand and business returns Ben Hunt's broken teacup analogy for reputation and Federal Reserve credibility Why central bank actions matter more when investors stop believing the rhetoric Cameron Dawson's concerns about Nvidia receivables, hyperscaler cash flow and AI accounting How leases, special purpose vehicles and one-time investment gains complicate earnings analysis Dan Niles on survivorship bias and the risks of assuming today's market leaders will win forever How Ben Hunt measures narrative life cycles, bursts and shifts in common knowledge The connection between declining trust in central banks and gold prices Why sports betting, overtrading and repeated small losses can quietly undermine long-term wealth Timestamps: 00:00 This week's lineup and Jack's unexpected action hero moment 04:09 Dan Niles on smart companies, AI bubbles and agentic demand 11:55 Ben Hunt on credibility and the Fed's broken teacup 19:46 Cameron Dawson on AI accounting and hidden cash flow pressures 28:13 Dan Niles challenges the buy-and-hold-forever mindset 32:51 Ben Hunt explains how to measure narrative life cycles 37:01 Connecting Fed credibility narratives to gold prices 41:04 Dave Nadig on the slow financial drain of sports betting 45:09 Gambling from income versus spending down your savings Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  8. Sep 1

    Bond Panic. Software Pileup. Borrowed AI Earnings. Are Investors Pricing the Wrong Risk?

    In this Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down why rising long-term bond yields may be justified by stronger nominal growth, large fiscal deficits and AI-driven capital spending, and why the bigger market risk may be an AI earnings bubble rather than a valuation bubble. Featuring Kevin Muir, Dan Rasmussen and Ian Cassel, the episode also explores private equity’s huge software bet, the traits of elite stock pickers, and how the worldview of AI leaders could be driving unusually aggressive capital spending and risk-taking. Topics covered: Why long-term bond yields may be more rational than alarming given stronger nominal GDP, inflation, deficits and heavy Treasury and corporate issuance How global fiscal expansion and the AI infrastructure build-out are adding to bond supply and upward pressure on rates Why suppressing market interest rates can distort an important economic signal and create unintended consequences How private equity became a lagged momentum investor and built massive exposure to software and healthcare technology Why recurring revenue does not make a business bulletproof, and how AI could challenge software economics that once looked untouchable Ian Cassel’s benchmarks for good, great and GOAT stock pickers, from 10-year outperformance to 20% annualized returns The five or six core investing skills elite stock pickers need, and why world-class investors become exceptional at one or two How AI CapEx can boost current supplier earnings while the buyer’s expense is spread over years through depreciation Why an AI earnings bubble could exist even if headline valuation multiples do not look extreme How futurism, expected-value thinking and confidence in AGI may be encouraging AI leaders to take enormous capital spending risks Timestamps: 00:00 Intro: Kevin Muir, Dan Rasmussen and Ian Cassel 05:09 Why suppressing bond yields could create new risks 09:54 Private equity as a lagged momentum investor 14:15 Why investment committees chase three- and five-year returns 19:00 The skills that separate good investors from great ones 23:11 Why elite stock picking takes a decade or more to judge 27:18 How AI CapEx is changing cash flow, buybacks and earnings 31:47 Price bubbles vs earnings bubbles 36:00 Why AI leaders may be taking massive CapEx risk 40:49 AI adoption bottlenecks and the need for skepticism Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

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5
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.

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