Two Quants and a Financial Planner

Excess Returns
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.

  1. 1D AGO

    He Invested Through Five Bubbles. He Wrote the Book on Them | The Weekly Wrap - 5/17/2026

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together highlights from our interviews with Jeremy Grantham, Andy Constan, Edward Chancellor and Marc Rubinstein to examine AI, bubbles, private credit, market structure and the lessons of past capital cycles. We look at whether AI is creating a new investment bubble, why technological revolutions often disappoint investors even when the technology succeeds, and how private credit, financials, monopolies and market leadership fit into today’s confusing market environment. Main topics covered: • Jeremy Grantham on mean reversion, monopoly power and why the Mag 7 may have avoided normal competitive pressure • Andy Constan’s framework for bubbles, including the “something new,” escalation event and peaking phase • Edward Chancellor on AI capex, overstated demand and why boom-time profits can reverse when investment is misallocated • Marc Rubinstein on private credit, redemption gates, retail investors and why the risks may be real without being systemic • Grantham’s argument that AI may become a cost of doing business rather than a permanent boost to aggregate profits • Lessons from Long-Term Capital Management and how policy responses can add fuel to a bubble • What railway mania, canals and past technology booms can teach investors about winners, losers and overbuilding • Rubinstein’s case for European financials and why growth can be dangerous in financial services • Grantham’s bubble detector and the signal that has appeared near the tops of 1929, the Nifty Fifty, 2000 and 2021 • Why investors need humility when navigating bubble regimes, AI enthusiasm, private credit and market concentration Timestamps: 00:00 Jeremy Grantham, Andy Constan and Edward Chancellor on AI, bubbles and capex 01:14 Why this week’s conversations connect across AI, bubbles and market structure 04:31 Jeremy Grantham on monopoly power, mean reversion and the Mag 7 11:24 Andy Constan’s three-stage framework for market bubbles 20:12 Edward Chancellor on AI capex, overstated demand and reported profits 30:28 Marc Rubinstein on private credit gates and the limits of systemic risk 37:50 Jeremy Grantham on why AI may become a cost of doing business 42:55 How Long-Term Capital Management helped fuel the late 1990s bubble 50:02 What railways, canals and overbuilding teach us about technology booms 55:58 Marc Rubinstein on European financials, innovation and US market confusion 1:00:38 Jeremy Grantham’s bubble detector and the warning from market leaders 1:05:59 Closing thoughts on bubble signals, investor humility and Excess Returns resources

    1h 8m

  2. MAY 11

    The S&P 500 is Just 46 Stocks. 89% of the Economy is Flatlining | What We Learned This Week

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap looks at what Ian Cassel, Chris Mayer, Jim Paulsen and Elena Khoziaeva can teach investors about stock picking skill, inflation risk, AI, software moats, small caps and market concentration. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on why elite investors can be wrong almost half the time, why today may not be the 1970s or the 1990s, how AI is affecting software businesses, and why the S&P 500 may be far less diversified than investors think. Topics Covered Why great stock pickers can be right only 49% of the time and still generate exceptional returns The role of outliers, magnitude and position sizing in long-term investing success Jim Paulsen’s argument that today’s inflation backdrop is very different from the 1970s How supply shocks, tariffs, commodities and labor force growth shape the inflation outlook Bridgeway’s research on redefining the small-cap premium by excluding IPOs and fallen large caps Why vertical market software may be more resilient to AI disruption than horizontal software How the AI boom and new era economy are masking weakness in the rest of the economy Why the S&P 500 may effectively be driven by fewer than 50 stocks despite having 500 names What management meetings can and cannot add to a stock picker’s process Why patience, conviction and independent business verification may be enduring investing edges Timestamps 00:00 Intro and episode preview 05:30 Why outliers drive stock picking returns 09:58 Why today’s inflation may not be the 1970s 17:27 Rethinking the small-cap premium 24:11 AI disruption and vertical market software 32:04 The AI boom versus the rest of the economy 37:04 Why the S&P 500 acts like 46 stocks 46:09 What investors can learn from management teams 53:32 Why today’s tech boom is not the 1990s 58:34 Patience, conviction and the last investing edge 01:05:32 Closing thoughts and Excess Returns Substack

    1h 7m

  3. MAY 3

    Outperformed by Mom | The Weekly Wrap – 5/2/2026

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines what Chris Davis and Rich Bernstein can teach investors about letting winners run, inflation risk, market concentration, dividends, AI, and the difference between economic stories and investment returns. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on portfolio concentration, the 1960s vs. the 1970s, investor complacency, the Fed’s inflation target, durable businesses, and where the next market opportunity may be hiding. Topics Covered Why letting winners run can be so powerful, but so hard for professional investors Chris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling great companies The tradeoff between concentration, diversification and real-world portfolio risk Why Rich Bernstein thinks today may look more like the 1960s than the 1970s How oil prices affect consumer behavior when measured against wages Chris Davis on why perceived risk can be very different from actual risk What cars, insurance and investor behavior reveal about market complacency Why the Fed’s 2% inflation target may not reflect the world investors are living in The relationship between valuation, durability and software stocks Why higher inflation could increase demand for dividends and near-term cash flow Chris Davis on why exceptional people and management teams matter in investing Why AI may be a great economic story but not necessarily a great investment story Timestamps 00:00 Letting winners run, 1960s inflation and investor risk perception 02:18 Chris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling 08:32 Reinvestment risk and the limits of active management 12:45 Why oil shocks may matter less when gasoline is low relative to wages 20:25 Chris Davis on why feeling safe can make investors take more risk 29:20 Rich Bernstein on whether the Fed’s 2% inflation target is outdated 34:08 Chris Davis on durability, valuation and software stocks 39:39 Why cash flow gives durable companies room to adapt 43:16 Rich Bernstein on dividends, inflation and the need for cash today 51:55 Chris Davis on why people matter more than investors think 56:07 The risk and value of investing with exceptional leaders 1:01:30 Rich Bernstein on AI as an economic story vs. an investment story 1:05:13 Why AI productivity may not translate into obvious stock market winners

    1h 10m

  4. APR 26

    We Asked David Rosenberg, Chris Bloomstran and Cameron Dawson What This Market Is Getting Wrong

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap explores one of the most important questions in markets today: what’s really driving this rally, and how fragile is it beneath the surface. We break down the growing concentration in earnings, the role of passive flows, and why multiple top investors see structural risks building even as markets continue to rise. We highlight key insights from David Rosenberg, Chris Bloomstran, Cameron Dawson, Dave Nadig, and Travis Prentice on market concentration, the macro link between asset prices and the economy, and how investors should think about risk, valuations, and positioning in an environment increasingly driven by flows rather than fundamentals. Topics Covered Why two companies are driving a disproportionate share of earnings growth and what that means for the broader market The growing link between stock prices, consumer spending, and the overall economy How passive investing is changing market structure and risk measurement The difference between tracking error risk and real risk for long-term investors Why valuations matter for long-term returns but not short-term timing Lessons from past technology booms and whether AI is repeating history The role of capital intensity and margin pressure in today’s largest companies Why disruption eventually impacts even the best businesses How professional investors adjust portfolios in expensive markets Why understanding probabilities and multiple scenarios is critical for investing Timestamps 00:00 Intro 04:45 David Rosenberg on the “perma bear” label and managing tail risk 09:18 Chris Bloomstran on disruption and why no company compounds forever 15:40 Why the economy is increasingly tied to the stock market 20:28 The savings rate, consumer spending, and hidden economic risks 26:00 Passive investing, flows, and how market structure has changed 31:32 Tracking error vs real risk and investor behavior 37:28 David Rosenberg on probabilities and having a plan B 42:26 How investors manage portfolios in expensive markets 43:38 Two companies driving 50% of earnings growth 49:00 Concentration vs broadening in the market 55:25 Valuations, bubbles, and expected returns 01:01:00 Why valuations are not a short-term timing tool 01:07:00 AI investment, overcapacity, and lessons from past tech cycles 01:12:30 Bull vs bear case for AI-driven growth 01:18:00 Final thoughts on market structure, flows, and long-term risks

    1h 12m

  5. APR 19

    We Asked Liz Ann Sonders, Jim Grant, and Brent Donnelly What Investors Miss About This Market

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together insights from Jim Grant, Liz Ann Sonders, and Brent Donnelly to break down the biggest forces driving markets right now, including war-driven inflation, oil shocks, market resilience, and the evolving role of sentiment and policy reactions. The conversation connects macro history with real-time market behavior to help investors understand what actually matters beneath the headlines. Topics Covered: Why war has historically been one of the most consistent drivers of inflation How oil shocks impact both inflation and economic growth simultaneously The nuance behind the “US as a net energy exporter” narrative Why markets require a steady stream of bad news to sustain a decline How policy reaction functions (Fed, government) shape market outcomes The difference between structural trends and short-term shocks in trading Why “buy the dip” has worked—and the risks if it stops working The role of retail traders and short-term flows in modern market dynamics Contribution vs. price performance in the Mag 7 and S&P 500 How sentiment has evolved across different investor cohorts and timeframes Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and overview of this week’s guests 01:03 Jim Grant on why war is inherently inflationary 05:16 Historical context for inflation and wartime dynamics 10:40 Liz Ann Sonders on oil shocks and stock market reactions 13:11 Demand destruction and the “cure for high prices” 15:57 Brent Donnelly on shocks, positioning, and mean reversion 18:33 Policy reaction functions and market reflexivity 21:44 Jim Grant on bubbles, technology, and the air conditioning analogy 27:04 Liz Ann Sonders on buy-the-dip behavior and retail traders 32:37 Why markets need sustained bad news to decline 38:24 Jim Grant on trust as the foundation of credit markets 41:47 Liz Ann on Mag 7 growth vs. the rest of the market 46:02 Contribution vs. performance in index construction 48:01 Jim Grant on inflation, oil shocks, and policy mistakes 52:38 Inflation as a continuous process and purchasing power loss 57:09 Liz Ann on Marty Zweig, sentiment, and modern market structure 01:02:35 Final thoughts on sentiment, behavior, and market complexity

    1h 6m

  6. APR 12

    The Recession Signal Hidden in Walmart | The Weekly Wrap - 4/12/2026

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together insights from Jim Paulsen, Brent Kochuba, Anthony Wang, and Tom Hancock to break down what’s really driving markets right now—from recession signals and oil shocks to AI economics and options flows. We explore whether current conditions look more like the start of a new bull market or something more fragile beneath the surface. We dive into unique indicators like the “Walmart signal,” shifting oil/VIX correlations, the real economics behind the AI boom, and what options markets are telling us about positioning and risk. Topics Covered: The Walmart vs. luxury retail indicator and what it signals about recession risk Why oil is no longer driving volatility the way it did earlier in the crisis How geopolitical shocks are (and aren’t) translating into equity market stress The role of options flows and the JP Morgan collar in shaping market moves Why all market signals should be viewed as probabilities, not certainties AI and the “cost of intelligence going to zero” and what that means for productivity The layering of AI economics and how cash flows through the system Why this AI cycle differs from the dot-com bubble (utilization, funding, cost curves) The importance of cash-funded capex vs. debt-driven speculation Why low consumer confidence may actually be bullish for stocks Indicators that look more like the start of a bull market than the end The role of sentiment, positioning, and underreaction in driving returns Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:00 Weekly Wrap overview and guest lineup 03:05 The Walmart indicator and recession signals 06:20 Private credit stress vs traditional credit signals 09:05 Interpreting economic indicators in context 10:25 Oil and VIX correlation breakdown 13:05 Why oil stopped driving volatility 15:00 “Certainty about uncertainty” and market behavior 16:10 AI and the collapsing cost of intelligence 18:40 Agents, productivity, and the future of software 21:05 AI skepticism vs long-term adoption curve 22:30 AI capex, cash flow, and economic layering 25:00 Why this AI cycle is more stable than dot-com 27:00 Cash-funded investment vs debt-driven bubbles 29:25 Bull market vs bear market signals today 31:00 Consumer confidence as a contrarian indicator 33:30 The role of sentiment and upside surprises 34:25 The JP Morgan collar and market structure 37:00 Trading probabilities vs certainty 39:00 How options flows act as market “magnets” 41:05 Comparing AI infrastructure to fiber buildout 44:30 Utilization and demand in AI vs dot-com 47:00 Network effects and scaling AI adoption 01:09:30 Final thoughts and wrap-up

    1h 10m

  7. APR 5

    The 1 in 18,900 Bet | Practical Lessons from Michael Maboussin, Katie Stockton, Ben Hunt, Kuppy and Aahan Menon

    This episode of Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together the most important ideas from a packed week of interviews, covering AI and base rates, the Magnificent Seven, commodities, macro risks, and practical investing frameworks. Jack Forehand and Kai Wu break down key clips from Michael Mauboussin, Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, Ben Hunt, Katie Stockton, and Aahan Menon to extract timeless lessons investors can apply across different market environments. The conversation moves from AI expectations and economic profit to geopolitical “common knowledge” moments, commodity dynamics, trend following, and the importance of thinking in probabilities and time horizons. Topics Covered: Why OpenAI’s growth expectations are historically unprecedented and what base rates actually tell us How base rates should guide expectations without limiting outlier outcomes like Amazon Why large companies are growing faster today and the role of intangible assets and software The concentration of economic profit in the Magnificent Seven and what it implies for valuations Why long-term time horizons create a structural edge in investing The concept of “common knowledge” and how it reshapes markets during geopolitical events Where AI value will accrue: companies vs consumers vs suppliers Why commodities behave differently from stocks and bonds during supply shocks How trend following works and why commodities are uniquely suited to it Why investing is a probabilities game and how to manage uncertainty and position sizing How technical indicators like the 200-day moving average should actually be used Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and overview of Weekly Wrap format 00:02:05 Michael Mauboussin on OpenAI growth and base rates 00:06:18 Why base rates matter but don’t define outcomes 00:09:50 Why large companies are growing faster than history suggests 00:14:58 Kuppy on time horizons and avoiding short-term noise 00:19:15 Ben Hunt on “common knowledge” and the Strait of Hormuz 00:24:13 AI value accrual and consumer surplus vs company profits 00:28:10 Commodities, backwardation, and why price trends differ from equities 00:32:45 Trend following and why commodities exhibit stronger trends 00:34:41 Investing as a game of probabilities and decision-making under uncertainty 00:41:58 Katie Stockton on the 200-day moving average and technical signals 00:46:20 Breadth, trend signals, and how technicals inform risk management 00:50:30 Position sizing, uncertainty, and diversification frameworks 00:55:40 Revisiting the Magnificent Seven and intangible assets 00:59:00 Trend following frameworks and portfolio construction Check out the full episode and all of our interviews from this week on the Excess Returns YouTube channel and podcast platforms.

    1h 7m

  8. MAR 29

    The Shock No One Can Price | The Weekly Wrap - 3/29/2026

    This episode of Excess Returns Weekly Recap breaks down one of the most complex market environments in recent memory, from the global oil shock and its economic ripple effects to base rates, AI-driven productivity, and private credit risks. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler synthesize insights from Bob Elliott, Chris Mayer, Robert, and Larry Swedroe to help investors understand what matters, what’s being mispriced, and where conviction should (and shouldn’t) exist. Topics covered: How oil supply shocks translate into inflation and reduced consumer spending Why oil demand is inelastic and creates mechanical economic slowdowns The difference between consumer surplus and true productivity gains from AI Why better tools don’t necessarily translate into higher earnings Understanding base rates and when it makes sense to bet against them How extreme outliers drive market returns and portfolio construction Survivorship bias vs studying exceptional businesses the right way Private credit risks, liquidity mechanisms, and media-driven narratives Why redemption fears in private credit may be overstated The importance of intellectual humility in macro investing Why investors often have no edge in geopolitical forecasting Identifying cross-asset mispricings instead of predicting outcomes How AI may increase competition but not necessarily create more winners The persistence of winner-take-all dynamics across technological shifts How to think about conviction, uncertainty, and portfolio positioning in volatile environments Timestamps: 00:00 Oil shock impact on consumer spending and inflation mechanics 00:01:06 Why this market environment is unusually confusing for investors 00:02:22 How oil supply shocks translate into price spikes and inflation 00:05:20 The real-world impact of higher energy costs on household spending 00:10:00 Base rates vs extreme outcomes in investing 00:11:39 Survivorship bias and what investors misunderstand about outliers 00:18:03 Private credit redemption risks and liquidity dynamics explained 00:23:00 Media narratives vs actual cash flows in private credit funds 00:27:11 AI productivity vs consumer surplus and why it matters 00:30:26 Why better tools don’t always lead to higher earnings 00:33:37 How to use base rates alongside conviction in investing decisions 00:38:58 Why investors have no edge in predicting geopolitical outcomes 00:41:00 Cross-asset signals and what markets may be mispricing 00:45:12 How AI could reshape competition but not change winner dynamics 00:47:57 When base rates break and how technological shifts reset expectations

    1h 7m
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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
7 Ratings

About

Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.

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