Two Quants and a Financial Planner

Excess Returns
  • 5.0 (8)
  • Investing
  • Updated Weekly

Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.

  1. 6d ago

    A War-Sized AI Bet. The Fed Goes Dark. Is One More Hike the Death Shot? | The Weekly Wrap

    On this episode of the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler examine how the AI capital spending boom, an unpredictable Federal Reserve, reduced corporate reporting and factor investing are reshaping markets. They break down Ben Hunt's warning about private credit and AI infrastructure, Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig on the loss of Fed forward guidance, Wes Gray on why value may matter more than company size, and Rupert Mitchell on the rate hike that could end the cycle. Topics covered: Why the AI capital spending boom is forcing hyperscalers to borrow money and issue equity How private credit and private equity are financing the AI infrastructure buildout Why a slowdown in AI CapEx could create broader financial system risk How government borrowing and AI investment are crowding out capital and pushing interest rates higher The impact of data center electricity demand on consumers and the broader economy How Kevin Warsh's no-forward-guidance policy changes Federal Reserve expectations Why greater front-end interest rate volatility matters for floating-rate debt and private credit The debate over replacing quarterly corporate reports with six-month reporting Wes Gray's argument that value, not small-company size, is the real source of higher expected returns Rupert Mitchell's death shot framework for how a final central bank rate hike can end a market cycle Timestamps: 00:00 AI spending, Fed uncertainty and this week's market themes 05:07 How the AI buildout crowds out capital across the economy 10:44 No Fed forward guidance and a new era of policy uncertainty 15:48 Why six-month corporate reporting could hurt investors 20:30 Wes Gray on the small-cap premium 24:42 Why value matters more than company size 28:57 How a surprise rate hike could break risk assets 34:05 Global value investing and pairing different investor perspectives Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  2. Jul 26

    No ROI Yet. Fewer Recessions. Are You Making More Money? | 4 Things We Learned This Week

    This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines when AI spending will translate into measurable end-user ROI, why the U.S. business cycle may now produce fewer recessions, and how Federal Reserve policy could combine lower short-term rates with a smaller balance sheet. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down insights from Andy Constan, Azeem Azhar and Aahan Menon on AI productivity, business-cycle shifts, asset prices and the tradeoffs between Wall Street and Main Street. Topics covered Why subsidized AI tokens may be masking the true economics of end-user ROI The difference between personal productivity gains, cost savings and measurable business profits How the transition from electric light bulbs to assembly lines explains AI process redesign Why adding more copilots cannot turn a legacy company into an AI-native enterprise The productivity J-curve and why promising AI investments may initially look unprofitable How the shift from manufacturing toward services and technology changed the business cycle Why housing and industrial indicators may be less reliable signals for the broader economy How consumer conditions, equity wealth and technology investment increasingly drive growth Why stronger balance sheets and policy intervention may be reducing recession frequency How lower short-term rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet could affect asset prices and inequality Timestamps 00:00 Intro and this week's triple-A lineup 04:00 AI's long-term promise and medium-term transition risk 08:18 Azeem Azhar on electricity as a model for AI adoption 12:28 Why more copilots cannot create an AI-native company 16:39 How services and technology changed the business cycle 21:20 Why policy intervention may be smoothing recessions 26:00 How Fed policy could rebalance Wall Street and Main Street 30:05 Closing thoughts and where to follow Excess Returns Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  3. Jul 20

    Strong Jobs. Vanishing Workers. Are You Watching the Wrong Number? | 4 Things We Learned This Week

    In this episode of the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down lessons from their conversations with Market Wizards author Jack Schwager and Data 4 the People founder Eric Pachman. They explore why the unemployment rate can hide labor market weakness, how aging and care jobs are reshaping employment, why elite traders survive by following strict risk management rules and whether artificial intelligence can ever solve financial markets. Topics covered: Why the headline unemployment rate can miss a deteriorating labor market How falling labor force participation changes the meaning of jobs data Why prime-age workers leaving the labor force matters for economic growth and consumption The limitations of relying on long-standing BLS and Federal Reserve benchmarks How an anonymous trader turned a small account into roughly half a billion dollars Why trading discipline, stop losses and risk management matter more than being right What the Carvana short squeeze reveals about the danger of breaking your own rules How aging demographics are concentrating job growth in healthcare and social assistance Why home healthcare and elder care workers are essential but often poorly paid Whether AI can generate market alpha or simply raise the baseline quality of investment tools Timestamps: 00:00 Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler become market wizards 04:24 What falling labor force participation hides 08:55 Simon Russo chooses trading over music 13:00 How ignoring stops could wipe out a fortune 17:05 Messi and the rule sets behind elite performance 21:05 Aging America and the rise of low-paid care jobs 25:05 Why financial markets are uniquely difficult for AI 29:07 How AI raises the floor without creating super-investors Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  4. Jul 13

    Tech Down 10%. Earnings at Record Highs. Which One Is Lying? | 5 Things We Learned This Week

    This week's Weekly Wrap examines whether weakening mega-cap leadership, massive AI capital spending, and record earnings expectations are creating hidden risks beneath the market. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler compare Jim Paulsen's correction case, Katie Stockton's technical analysis, Jeff Klingelhofer's fixed-income view of AI debt, and Matt Zenz's evidence-based analysis of corporate investment. They discuss why semiconductors have replaced the Magnificent Seven as the market's narrowest leadership group, why healthy breadth can coexist with fading momentum, how roughly $600 billion in AI CapEx is influencing U.S. economic growth, and why excellent earnings momentum does not eliminate correction risk. Main topics covered • Jim Paulsen's case for a 10% to 20% correction without a recession or long-term bear market • Why S&P 500 technology was already 10% below its June high • How broader market leadership could outperform mega-cap technology • Katie Stockton on weakening Magnificent Seven momentum and narrow semiconductor leadership • The difference between market breadth, participation, and leadership • How roughly $600 billion of AI CapEx from four companies is supporting economic growth • Why heavy AI-related debt issuance may create attractive opportunities in high-quality bonds • How fixed-income investors evaluate AI spending differently from equity investors • Matt Zenz on asset growth, corporate investment, and the factor evidence around future returns • Why current mega-cap AI spending may not be extreme relative to company size • Why strong earnings momentum and optimistic analyst estimates can still precede market trouble Timestamps 00:00 Four perspectives on technology, AI spending, and market leadership 05:00 Technology is already down 10% and Paulsen's long-term bull case 09:21 Katie Stockton on Magnificent Seven weakness and semiconductor leadership 15:36 Jeff Klingelhofer on $600 billion of AI CapEx and the bond market 20:13 Why high-quality AI debt may offer attractive yields 24:25 Why mega-cap AI spending may not be extreme by factor standards 29:09 Earnings momentum, earnings bubbles, and why strong fundamentals can precede trouble Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms, or their clients.

  5. Jul 5

    Expensive Market. AI Backlash. Are Investors Pricing the Wrong Risk? | 6 Things We Learned This Week

    Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down the biggest investing ideas from the week, including the AI bull market, data center backlash, semiconductor cyclicality, US stock market dominance and long-term market history. The episode features clips from Warren Pies, Meb Faber, Kai Wu and Ritavan on how investors should think about model progress, valuation, bear markets, moats, strategy and global diversification. Main topics covered Why political backlash against AI data centers may become a bigger risk than open source competition How Sam Altman, Dario Amodei and AI lab leaders are shaping the public narrative around artificial intelligence Why model progress, enterprise AI adoption and compute demand remain central to the AI bull market Meb Faber on 250 years of US market history and the power of long-term compounding Why expensive US stock valuations can coexist with long-term optimism about America How bear markets reset speculative excess and why younger investors may benefit from future declines Warren Pies on whether semiconductors are being priced like a less cyclical industry Why peak margins and low valuation multiples can be misleading in cyclical businesses Kai Wu and Ritavan on how AI changes moats, code, proprietary data and corporate strategy The System Gambit framework and why old checklists can fail when the game changes How investors should think about US versus international markets across decades and centuries Why future diversification may depend on where the next great innovation sandbox emerges Timestamps 00:00 Intro and weekly lineup 04:00 AI data centers, politics and the PR problem 09:18 Meb Faber on US market history and bear markets 14:44 Are semiconductors still cyclical? 20:56 Kai Wu on code, AI and changing moats 25:57 Ritavan on the System Gambit and the Ottoman Empire 30:28 Meb Faber on US versus international stocks 36:00 America as an innovation sandbox 38:06 Closing thoughts and where to follow Excess Returns

  6. Jun 28

    Easy Bubbles. Hard 100 Baggers. Useless AI | 6 Things We Learned This Week

    This week’s Weekly Wrap breaks down the biggest investing lessons from our conversations with GMO’s Ben Inker and 100 Baggers author Chris Mayer. We discuss how to think about market bubbles, AI capital spending, earnings risk, IPO supply, SpaceX, long-term compounders, and the founder traits that matter for investors. Main topics covered Ben Inker’s framework for easy bubbles versus hard bubbles Why the 2000 tech bubble was easier to navigate than the 2008 financial crisis How expected returns can help investors think about risk and reward Chris Mayer on why labels like AI, software or SpaceX can mislead investors Why investors need to understand what companies actually mean when they say AI The case that today’s market risk may be hiding in earnings rather than valuations How AI data center spending can boost current corporate profits before depreciation hits Why great 100-bagger stocks usually give investors many chances to buy How IPO supply from companies like SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could affect market returns Chris Mayer’s approach to evaluating founders, compensation, incentives and culture Timestamps 00:00 Intro to the Weekly Wrap and the new episode format 02:22 Ben Inker on easy bubbles, hard bubbles and 2000 versus 2008 08:12 Chris Mayer on SpaceX, AI and the danger of letting labels do the thinking 14:13 Ben Inker on earnings bubbles, AI spending and why valuations may look reasonable 19:38 Chris Mayer on 100-baggers and why investors do not need to buy immediately 22:53 Ben Inker on IPO supply, lockups and what new equity issuance can do to returns 28:03 Chris Mayer on evaluating founders, incentives, compensation and trust 34:38 Closing thoughts and the new Excess Returns Clips channel

  7. Jun 22

    Expensive Market. Record Issuance. Can the Story Still Hold It Up? | 6 Things We Learned This Week

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap breaks down the biggest investing lessons from Aswath Damodaran, Andy Constan and Tobias Carlisle. We discuss SpaceX valuation, AI capital spending, IPO mechanics, market overvaluation, the shift from buybacks to issuance, and whether value, small caps and equal weight stocks are starting to reverse years of mega-cap dominance. Topics covered: Why Aswath Damodaran says valuation requires both stories and numbers How investors can evaluate SpaceX without relying only on total addressable market Why IPOs are designed to trade well after issuance How a small public float can influence the perceived value of an entire company Why expensive market valuations do not automatically mean investors should sell everything What history suggests about forward returns when market valuations are extreme Why AI is changing the capital intensity of the Magnificent 7 The underrated role of restraint in business strategy and AI spending How the market is shifting from buybacks to stock issuance Why value, small caps and equal weight stocks may be showing early signs of a reversal Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and this week’s episodes with Aswath Damodaran, Andy Constan and Tobias Carlisle 04:17 What the SpaceX story needs to justify the valuation 08:56 Why IPO issuers may want the stock to trade up 13:20 Why mean reversion looks harder to trust in today’s market 17:28 How AI CapEx changes the Mag 7 valuation equation 22:21 Why buybacks and issuance matter for stock market supply 27:28 Are value, small caps and equal weight stocks starting to reverse? 31:53 Why market broadening can continue if recession is avoided

  8. Jun 15

    When the Fire Hose Meets the Megatrend | The Weekly Wrap

    In this episode of the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down two major conversations with Mike Green and Vanguard's Joe Davis. The discussion connects passive investing flows, mega-cap concentration, AI-driven productivity, fiscal deficits, demographics, and the possibility that markets are being reshaped by forces most investors do not fully understand. Topics covered: * Why passive investing can act like a fire hose into the largest stocks * How market-cap weighting can amplify flows into mega-cap, high-volatility companies * The connection between passive flows, factor investing, size, beta, and volatility * Why Mike Green sees passive flow dynamics changing market behavior * How buy-the-dip behavior, ETF flows, CTAs, and volatility control funds can reinforce rallies * Vanguard's megatrends framework for technology, demographics, deficits, and globalization * Why long-term structural trends can affect short-term growth, inflation, and markets * Joe Davis's case that AI could be more transformative than the personal computer * The risk that AI only automates work rather than augmenting workers and creating new industries * Why disappointing AI adoption could bring fiscal deficits, inflation pressure, and higher Treasury yields back into focus Timestamps: 00:00 Passive flows, AI, and the biggest forces shaping markets 03:38 Mike Green on passive investing as a market liquidity fire hose 08:26 The passive flow premium and why large-cap stocks keep winning 12:00 Joe Davis on technology, demographics, deficits, and globalization 16:20 Mike Green on whether passive flows can reverse 20:46 Buy-the-dip behavior, ETF inflows, and market volatility 21:25 Joe Davis on AI, deficits, and the future of U.S. growth 25:04 The 20% probability of a 9% 10-year Treasury yield 29:00 Why AI could be more powerful than the personal computer 34:10 Final thoughts on Mike Green, Joe Davis, and the Excess Returns network

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Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.

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