Two Quants and a Financial Planner

Excess Returns
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.

  1. 18H AGO

    14% for Tech. 1% for Everyone Else | The Weekly Wrap – 3/14/2026

    In this episode, we break down the most important insights from the week on Excess Returns,, with insights from Vitaliy Katsenelson, Jim Paulsen, and Joseph Shaposhnik. Markets today are being shaped by powerful crosscurrents including AI disruption, defense spending, macro policy shifts, and historically high valuations. In this episode, we highlight the biggest ideas from our conversations and explore what they mean for investors trying to navigate an uncertain world. Topics include the importance of humility in investing, the potential disruption of software by AI, the growing divergence within the economy, and why long-term structural trends like defense spending may create new opportunities. Topics Covered • Why humility may be the most important trait for investors in a rapidly changing world • How uncertainty around AI, geopolitics, and macro policy is widening the range of possible market outcomes • Why some investors are reducing exposure to software businesses amid AI disruption • The importance of management teams that can adapt and evolve in periods of technological change • Jim Paulsen’s framework for understanding the “new era” economy versus the rest of the economy • Why a small portion of the economy may now be driving overall GDP growth • The idea that successful investing may be about being “least wrong” rather than perfectly right • How long-term structural trends like defense spending could create a multi-year investment tailwind • Why experienced investors focus on analyzing businesses rather than reacting to headlines • The potential deflationary impact of AI and how lower prices could shift spending across the economy • Why high market valuations may act as a headwind for future returns • The importance of deep research and preparation when unexpected events hit markets • Jim Paulsen’s concept of “policy juice” and how fiscal and monetary policy drive bull markets • Whether a new wave of policy support could broaden the current market rally beyond mega-cap tech Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 02:00 Why humility matters more than ever in investing 08:50 AI disruption and the future of software businesses 18:07 The growing gap between the “new era” economy and the rest of the economy 25:00 Surviving first and being the least wrong as an investor 31:43 The potential defense spending supercycle 37:44 AI’s deflationary impact and how innovation reshapes economies 44:42 Why valuations act as a long-term headwind for stocks 50:56 How investors should respond to geopolitical events 56:49 Jim Paulsen on policy juice and the future of the bull market

    1h 5m

  2. 6D AGO

    From AI Hype to Hard Money | The Weekly Market Insight – March 8, 2026

    In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler highlight the most important investing insights from recent conversations across the Excess Returns podcast network. Drawing on discussions with Andy Constan, Rob Arnott, Kai Wu, Ben Hunt, Rupert Mitchell, Meb Faber and others, the episode connects ideas across macro, markets, AI, credit cycles and valuation. The conversation focuses on timeless investing principles investors can apply today, including how to evaluate expert opinions, how AI may reshape markets and jobs, what defines a true market bubble, why international stocks may be benefiting from global fiscal spending, and why the best opportunities in markets often come after long periods of underperformance. Topics covered in this episode How to evaluate expert opinions during major market events and filter signal from noise Andy Constan’s framework for judging credibility based on experience and confidence Why charts showing markets rising after wars are often misleading data mining The difference between believing in AI technology and believing AI stocks are good investments How AI could both replace and augment human work through the task based structure of jobs Rob Arnott’s definition of a market bubble using implausible growth assumptions Why many technology leaders ultimately fail to justify the expectations priced into their stocks The difference between software companies whose moat is code and those with durable intangible advantages How brand, switching costs, distribution and network effects protect enterprise software companies Why AI may be one of the most disruptive technologies in history and what that means for markets Meb Faber on the myth that the easy money has already been made in international and value stocks The behavioral challenge of holding unpopular strategies through long periods of underperformance Rob Arnott on why small cap value could outperform large cap growth over the next decade Ben Hunt on the point in every credit cycle when lenders say no more How rising costs of capital can trigger boom bust credit cycles Rupert Mitchell on why global equity markets often follow government fiscal spending The growing role of international fiscal policy and capital flows in global market leadership Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and the idea behind the weekly Excess Returns recap show 03:00 Andy Constan on how to evaluate experts and filter market commentary 11:40 Why charts showing markets rising after wars can be misleading 17:00 Kai Wu on AI technology versus AI investments and the future of work 25:37 Rob Arnott on how to define a market bubble using valuation assumptions 29:35 Kai Wu on software moats, intangible assets and enterprise software durability 35:31 Rob Arnott on how disruptive AI could be for the global economy 39:54 Meb Faber on why the easy money has never been made in markets 43:57 Rob Arnott on small cap value versus large cap growth opportunities 48:39 Ben Hunt on credit cycles and the moment lenders pull back 55:56 Rupert Mitchell on fiscal spending and global equity market performance

    1h 1m

  3. FEB 23

    The Question No One Asks | What Great Investors Taught Us About Portfolio and Purpose

    In this episode, we explore one of the most important but overlooked questions in investing: what is the purpose of your portfolio? Through a series of powerful clips and reflections from Aswath Damodaran, Meb Faber, Ben Hunt, Cullen Roche, Corey Hoffstein, Daniel Crosby, Larry Swedroe, and Wes Gray, we examine how goals like financial freedom, funded contentment, liability driven investing, retirement planning, and multi generational wealth shape the way we invest. This conversation goes beyond beating the market and focuses on preserving and growing wealth, reducing financial stress, aligning money with meaning, and defining what a life well lived truly looks like. Topics covered include: Why the end game of investing matters more than beating the market Preserving and growing wealth vs trying to get rich Freedom as the ultimate goal of financial independence Funded contentment and what it means to live a life well lived Liability driven investing and matching assets to future needs The difference between getting rich and staying rich Needs vs desires and understanding marginal utility of wealth Retirement planning and redefining success beyond a number Multi generational wealth and thinking beyond your own lifetime The psychological impact of growing up with or without money Financial freedom, stress reduction, and peace of mind Tactical financial goals vs long term purpose driven investing Education, legacy, and investing in the next generation Why once you win the game you may not need to keep playing Timestamps: 00:00 Aswath Damodaran on preserving and growing wealth 10:04 Meb Faber on freedom, contentment, and the hedonic treadmill 22:36 Ben Hunt on funded contentment and finding your pack 28:23 Cullen Roche on risk as uncertainty of consumption 33:25 Corey Hoffstein on liability driven investing and not worrying about money 41:50 Daniel Crosby on financial freedom and living life on your own terms 47:33 Larry Swedroe on needs vs desires and staying rich 55:54 Wes Gray on big blue arrows, tactical goals, and peace of mind

    1h 8m

  4. JAN 4

    The Retirement Rule No One Gets Right | Practical Lessons from Bill Bengen

    In this episode, we discuss our biggest lessons from our interview with Bill Bengen, the creator of the 4 percent rule, and are joined by special guest Ben Tuscai. We explore how one of the most widely cited ideas in retirement planning was developed, how it is often misunderstood, and how it should actually be used in real-world financial planning. The conversation bridges academic research and practical application, digging into safe withdrawal rates, sequence of returns risk, inflation, portfolio construction, and what retirement planning really looks like across decades of uncertainty. • How and why Bill Bengen originally developed the 4 percent rule • What the 4 percent rule actually means and the most common ways it is misapplied • Why inflation and sequence of returns risk are the biggest threats to retirees • The role of diversification and asset allocation in safe withdrawal strategies • How market valuations and bond yields affect sustainable withdrawal rates • Why higher equity exposure can sometimes increase retirement safety • The evolution from the original 4 percent rule to higher safe max withdrawal rates • The psychology of retirement spending and sleeping well during market stress • Planning for longer retirements, early retirement, and rising healthcare costs • U-shaped and rising equity glide paths and why they can improve outcomes • Bucket strategies, cash reserves, and managing withdrawals through bear markets • When spending more or taking less risk makes sense after you have already “won the game” 00:00 – Introduction and why the 4 percent rule still matters 03:00 – Bill Bengen explains how the 4 percent rule was created 06:00 – Worst historical retirement periods and inflation risk 10:30 – How advisors actually use the 4 percent rule in practice 15:30 – Inflation, bear markets, and sequence of returns risk 18:30 – Market valuations, CAPE ratios, and withdrawal rate adjustments 23:00 – Financial planning software versus simple rules of thumb 27:00 – Sequence risk explained and why retirees can get hurt early 31:00 – How diversification increased safe withdrawal rates over time 37:00 – Safe max withdrawal rates and optimal equity allocation 42:30 – Longer retirements, FIRE, and planning beyond 30 years 45:30 – U-shaped and rising equity glide paths explained 50:30 – Healthcare costs, longevity risk, and retirement stress testing 56:30 – Bucket strategies, cash reserves, and dynamic withdrawals Main Topics CoveredTimestamps

    1h 3m

  5. 11/08/2025

    The Most Underutilized Concept in Investing | Four Lessons from Michael Mauboussin

    In this episode, we kick off our book project, "The Most Important Investing Lesson: What the World’s Best Investors Would Teach You", with a deep dive into the ideas of Michael Mauboussin. We explore his most enduring lessons—concepts that have reshaped how we think about investing, decision making, and life. From base rates to expectations investing, we unpack how Mauboussin’s frameworks can help investors build better models of the world and make more rational, probabilistic decisions. Main topics covered: Why base rates are the most underused yet powerful tool in investing and life How to apply expectations investing and reverse engineer stock prices Why multiples are not valuation and how to earn the right to use shortcuts Understanding the paradox of skill and why luck matters more when everyone is good Lessons investors can apply across fields like business, sports, and personal decision making How humility, reference classes, and feedback loops improve judgment Reflections on learning, writing, and how AI tools are changing the creative process Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and the idea behind the book 04:00 Michael Mauboussin on base rates and decision making 10:00 Expectations investing and reversing the valuation process 19:00 Multiples are not valuation—understanding shortcuts 28:00 The paradox of skill and why luck matters more than we think 38:00 How to apply these ideas in investing and life 45:00 Closing thoughts and audience feedback on the book project

    47 min

  6. 08/11/2025

    How to Avoid Selling Your Next 100-Bagger | Practical Lessons from Chris Mayer

    In this special episode, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski take you on a deep-dive mixtape journey through the best moments from their past three years of conversations with author and investor Chris Mayer. From the brutal patience required to ride out dead money periods to why the lack of a catalyst might be a feature, not a bug—this episode is packed with timeless investing wisdom. Whether you're chasing a hundred bagger or trying to hold through volatility, Mayer’s philosophy will challenge and inspire you. 🔑 Topics Covered: Why “dead money” is often harder than drawdowns The real challenge of holding long-term winners The myth of catalysts and the power of compounding How great businesses reveal their edge over time The emotional toll of patience—and how to cultivate it Aligning capital with the right investor mindset What Buffett’s evolution teaches us about reinvestment risk Why most investors can’t handle uncertainty—and how that creates opportunity How great investors and great CEOs think in decades, not quarters ⏱️ Timestamps: 00:00 Intro + Episode Setup 02:07 Dead Money vs. Drawdowns 10:00 Waiting Without a Catalyst 18:15 The Real Test of Holding 25:00 Aligning with Long-Term Capital 35:00 Buffett and Value Investing 2.0 44:00 Management and Short-Term Thinking 50:00 The True Meaning of Patience 54:18 Outro + Closing Thoughts

    55 min

  7. 07/14/2025

    The Fourth Turning is Here. But It Isn’t What You Think | Practical Lessons from Neil Howe

    In this episode, Matt Zeigler and Dave Nadig revisit one of the most popular interviews on Excess Returns—our deep-dive conversation with Neil Howe, co-author of The Fourth Turning. But instead of leaning into the usual doom-and-gloom narrative, they unpack the misunderstood lessons at the heart of Howe’s generational theory. From inflation and leadership to passive investing and community, Matt and Dave explore the deeper patterns shaping our society and markets—and why so many people miss the bigger picture. 🎙️ Topics discussed include: Why the Fourth Turning is more about renewal than collapse The misunderstood role of inflation in crisis periods How generational memory loss fuels leadership failure Why passive investing might be the ultimate Millennial move Gen X’s emergence as a uniquely flawed (and necessary) leadership class How conflict can become the incubator for lasting community This is not a forecast—it’s a framework. And it might just change how you see the world around you.

    56 min

  8. 07/06/2025

    When Easy Markets Hide Hard Truths | Practical Lessons from Richard Bernstein

    In this episode, we highlight the biggest lessons from our Excess Returns interview with renowned strategist Richard Bernstein. We explore the paradox of today’s markets: why they feel easy, and what hard truths may be hiding beneath the surface. From the risks of narrow market leadership to the role of structural flows and investor complacency, Richard shares practical lessons drawn from decades of market experience. We discuss: Why narrow markets may signal greater risk than investors realize The danger of mistaking easy markets for safe ones How structural flows can prop up markets despite rising risks The behavioral traps investors fall into during seemingly easy times What history teaches us about mispricings and market resilience Whether you’re focused on protecting capital or positioning for the next cycle, this conversation offers valuable insights into today’s market dynamics.

    1 hr
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Ratings & Reviews

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About

Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.

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