Two Quants and a Financial Planner

Excess Returns
  • 5.0 (7)
  • Investing
  • Updated Weekly

Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.

  1. 3d ago

    Expensive Market. Record Issuance. Can the Story Still Hold It Up? | 6 Things We Learned This Week

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap breaks down the biggest investing lessons from Aswath Damodaran, Andy Constan and Tobias Carlisle. We discuss SpaceX valuation, AI capital spending, IPO mechanics, market overvaluation, the shift from buybacks to issuance, and whether value, small caps and equal weight stocks are starting to reverse years of mega-cap dominance. Topics covered: Why Aswath Damodaran says valuation requires both stories and numbers How investors can evaluate SpaceX without relying only on total addressable market Why IPOs are designed to trade well after issuance How a small public float can influence the perceived value of an entire company Why expensive market valuations do not automatically mean investors should sell everything What history suggests about forward returns when market valuations are extreme Why AI is changing the capital intensity of the Magnificent 7 The underrated role of restraint in business strategy and AI spending How the market is shifting from buybacks to stock issuance Why value, small caps and equal weight stocks may be showing early signs of a reversal Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and this week’s episodes with Aswath Damodaran, Andy Constan and Tobias Carlisle 04:17 What the SpaceX story needs to justify the valuation 08:56 Why IPO issuers may want the stock to trade up 13:20 Why mean reversion looks harder to trust in today’s market 17:28 How AI CapEx changes the Mag 7 valuation equation 22:21 Why buybacks and issuance matter for stock market supply 27:28 Are value, small caps and equal weight stocks starting to reverse? 31:53 Why market broadening can continue if recession is avoided

    34 min

  2. Jun 15

    When the Fire Hose Meets the Megatrend | The Weekly Wrap

    In this episode of the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down two major conversations with Mike Green and Vanguard's Joe Davis. The discussion connects passive investing flows, mega-cap concentration, AI-driven productivity, fiscal deficits, demographics, and the possibility that markets are being reshaped by forces most investors do not fully understand. Topics covered: * Why passive investing can act like a fire hose into the largest stocks * How market-cap weighting can amplify flows into mega-cap, high-volatility companies * The connection between passive flows, factor investing, size, beta, and volatility * Why Mike Green sees passive flow dynamics changing market behavior * How buy-the-dip behavior, ETF flows, CTAs, and volatility control funds can reinforce rallies * Vanguard's megatrends framework for technology, demographics, deficits, and globalization * Why long-term structural trends can affect short-term growth, inflation, and markets * Joe Davis's case that AI could be more transformative than the personal computer * The risk that AI only automates work rather than augmenting workers and creating new industries * Why disappointing AI adoption could bring fiscal deficits, inflation pressure, and higher Treasury yields back into focus Timestamps: 00:00 Passive flows, AI, and the biggest forces shaping markets 03:38 Mike Green on passive investing as a market liquidity fire hose 08:26 The passive flow premium and why large-cap stocks keep winning 12:00 Joe Davis on technology, demographics, deficits, and globalization 16:20 Mike Green on whether passive flows can reverse 20:46 Buy-the-dip behavior, ETF inflows, and market volatility 21:25 Joe Davis on AI, deficits, and the future of U.S. growth 25:04 The 20% probability of a 9% 10-year Treasury yield 29:00 Why AI could be more powerful than the personal computer 34:10 Final thoughts on Mike Green, Joe Davis, and the Excess Returns network

    35 min

  3. Jun 8

    The $1.75T IPO No One Can Price | 6 Things That Surprised Us This Week

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap looks at the market stories that surprised us most, including the potential SpaceX IPO, extreme valuations, market structure, AI disruption, value investing, tech leadership and oil prices. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips from Cameron Dawson, Kai Wu, Jim Paulsen and Dave Nadig on what investors should understand about valuation, index flows, disruption and market leadership. Topics Covered: Why the SpaceX IPO could test how investors think about growth, valuation and market structure Cameron Dawson on what 80 to 100 times sales implies for a company as large as SpaceX The Palantir comparison and why great growth can still get priced in too early Kai Wu on why traditional value investing struggles in industries exposed to technological disruption How value investing has performed differently in exposed versus insulated sectors Jim Paulsen on the shift from Magnificent Seven leadership to small cap tech and unprofitable tech stocks Dave Nadig on why SpaceX’s small free float and index inclusion mechanics could distort price discovery Why forced index buying, options trading and pre-positioning could make the first 30 days of SpaceX trading chaotic Kai Wu on AI disruption, software stocks and why dispersion creates both opportunity and risk Jim Paulsen on why the biggest stock market pressure from oil spikes may come after oil prices peak Timestamps: 00:54 What surprised us most this week 05:27 What 100x sales means for SpaceX investors 10:52 Why value investing still works outside disrupted industries 15:45 Why risky market leadership can continue longer than investors expect 20:53 Why SpaceX’s low free float matters for index funds 25:23 AI disruption and the opportunity in software dispersion 29:23 How dispersion creates winners and destroys funds 33:46 Why oil peaks can pressure the economy with a lag

    36 min

  4. May 31

    They Lose on Purpose — And Still Come Out Ahead | The Weekly Wrap - 5/31/2026

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap breaks down the best investing insights from Adam Parker, Robert Hagstrom, and Eric Crittenden. We discuss why the market may still be trading on fundamentals, why valuation alone can fail as a stock-picking tool, how modern portfolio theory changed investing, what business-driven investors can learn from Warren Buffett, and why trend following may work by providing liquidity to hedgers. Topics covered: Why the stock market may be looking through today’s headlines to future earnings and AI-driven fundamentals Adam Parker’s argument that valuation does not work well as a standalone stock-picking signal Why estimate revisions, earnings beats, and gross margin changes may matter more than cheap P/E ratios Robert Hagstrom on Harry Markowitz, Benjamin Graham, and the debate over whether volatility is the same thing as risk How modern portfolio theory shaped active management, index funds, and the way investors think about diversification Warren Buffett’s casino and cathedral metaphor for separating stock prices from business ownership Eric Crittenden on why hedgers may willingly lose money on trades to reduce business risk and lower cost of capital Why trend following may earn a risk premium by providing liquidity to hedgers in their moment of need How systematic investors should think about tinkering with models during drawdowns Robert Hagstrom’s story about Bill Ruane and the importance of finding the right clients and investors Timestamps: 00:00 Risk, valuation, and hedging in this week’s best clips 04:06 Adam Parker on why the market may still be trading on fundamentals 08:49 Why cheap stocks are often cheap for a reason 14:37 Robert Hagstrom on Harry Markowitz and the birth of modern portfolio theory 18:50 How portfolio theory became the institutional language of investing 22:27 Eric Crittenden on hedgers, cost of capital, and who is on the other side of the trade 27:51 Adam Parker on why firm-wide market outlooks are so hard to get right 33:53 Robert Hagstrom on Buffett’s casino and cathedral metaphor 39:16 Why gross margin change may be one of the most important stock-picking signals 44:56 Eric Crittenden and Jason Buck on tinkering with systematic strategies 49:00 Why trend following may work over the long term 53:09 Robert Hagstrom on meeting Bill Ruane and learning which clients to avoid 58:38 Why firing the wrong clients can strengthen an investment business

    1h 2m

  5. May 25

    He Studied 100 Years of Bubbles. He Exposed Private Equity's Volatility Illusion | The Weekly Wrap

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap breaks down the biggest investing lessons from our conversations with Cliff Asness, Andy Constan, Gene Munster, Doug Clinton, and Ben Carlson. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler discuss volatility, bubble regimes, AI infrastructure, private equity risk, investor behavior, and why doing nothing is often harder than it looks. Main topics covered: Cliff Asness on why volatility is not a perfect risk measure, but still matters for real investors The limits of defining risk only as permanent loss of capital Andy Constan on why bubbles can feel low risk because they trend with low volatility How leverage, confidence, and investor behavior can inflate bubble regimes Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on AI, electricity, data centers, hyperscaler CapEx, and energy demand Why AI infrastructure constraints may affect whether the AI boom becomes a classic bubble Ben Carlson on Shark Week, vivid risks, and why investors often fear the wrong things Cliff Asness on private equity, volatility laundering, and the illusion of smooth returns Andy Constan on what active investors should do in bubble regimes and why mean reversion can fail Doug Clinton and Gene Munster on AI job disruption, knowledge workers, and how to adapt Ben Carlson on action bias, penalty kicks, and why doing nothing can be the hardest investing decision Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and the week’s biggest investing clips 03:37 Cliff Asness on volatility, risk, and permanent loss of capital 10:16 Andy Constan on why low volatility can make bubbles more dangerous 20:41 Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on turning electricity into intelligence 25:11 Why AI power constraints may change the bubble debate 30:39 Ben Carlson on Shark Week, vivid risks, and investor attention 35:44 Cliff Asness on private equity and volatility laundering 43:42 Andy Constan on alpha, sizing down, and trading in bubbles 50:06 Doug Clinton and Gene Munster on AI, jobs, and knowledge workers 57:55 AI blind spots, token subsidies, and old tech investing frameworks 59:58 Ben Carlson on penalty kicks, action bias, and doing nothing 01:04:45 Quant lessons in sports, the Knicks, and closing thoughts

    1h 6m

  6. May 17

    He Invested Through Five Bubbles. He Wrote the Book on Them | The Weekly Wrap - 5/17/2026

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together highlights from our interviews with Jeremy Grantham, Andy Constan, Edward Chancellor and Marc Rubinstein to examine AI, bubbles, private credit, market structure and the lessons of past capital cycles. We look at whether AI is creating a new investment bubble, why technological revolutions often disappoint investors even when the technology succeeds, and how private credit, financials, monopolies and market leadership fit into today’s confusing market environment. Main topics covered: • Jeremy Grantham on mean reversion, monopoly power and why the Mag 7 may have avoided normal competitive pressure • Andy Constan’s framework for bubbles, including the “something new,” escalation event and peaking phase • Edward Chancellor on AI capex, overstated demand and why boom-time profits can reverse when investment is misallocated • Marc Rubinstein on private credit, redemption gates, retail investors and why the risks may be real without being systemic • Grantham’s argument that AI may become a cost of doing business rather than a permanent boost to aggregate profits • Lessons from Long-Term Capital Management and how policy responses can add fuel to a bubble • What railway mania, canals and past technology booms can teach investors about winners, losers and overbuilding • Rubinstein’s case for European financials and why growth can be dangerous in financial services • Grantham’s bubble detector and the signal that has appeared near the tops of 1929, the Nifty Fifty, 2000 and 2021 • Why investors need humility when navigating bubble regimes, AI enthusiasm, private credit and market concentration Timestamps: 00:00 Jeremy Grantham, Andy Constan and Edward Chancellor on AI, bubbles and capex 01:14 Why this week’s conversations connect across AI, bubbles and market structure 04:31 Jeremy Grantham on monopoly power, mean reversion and the Mag 7 11:24 Andy Constan’s three-stage framework for market bubbles 20:12 Edward Chancellor on AI capex, overstated demand and reported profits 30:28 Marc Rubinstein on private credit gates and the limits of systemic risk 37:50 Jeremy Grantham on why AI may become a cost of doing business 42:55 How Long-Term Capital Management helped fuel the late 1990s bubble 50:02 What railways, canals and overbuilding teach us about technology booms 55:58 Marc Rubinstein on European financials, innovation and US market confusion 1:00:38 Jeremy Grantham’s bubble detector and the warning from market leaders 1:05:59 Closing thoughts on bubble signals, investor humility and Excess Returns resources

    1h 8m

  7. May 11

    The S&P 500 is Just 46 Stocks. 89% of the Economy is Flatlining | What We Learned This Week

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap looks at what Ian Cassel, Chris Mayer, Jim Paulsen and Elena Khoziaeva can teach investors about stock picking skill, inflation risk, AI, software moats, small caps and market concentration. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on why elite investors can be wrong almost half the time, why today may not be the 1970s or the 1990s, how AI is affecting software businesses, and why the S&P 500 may be far less diversified than investors think. Topics Covered Why great stock pickers can be right only 49% of the time and still generate exceptional returns The role of outliers, magnitude and position sizing in long-term investing success Jim Paulsen’s argument that today’s inflation backdrop is very different from the 1970s How supply shocks, tariffs, commodities and labor force growth shape the inflation outlook Bridgeway’s research on redefining the small-cap premium by excluding IPOs and fallen large caps Why vertical market software may be more resilient to AI disruption than horizontal software How the AI boom and new era economy are masking weakness in the rest of the economy Why the S&P 500 may effectively be driven by fewer than 50 stocks despite having 500 names What management meetings can and cannot add to a stock picker’s process Why patience, conviction and independent business verification may be enduring investing edges Timestamps 00:00 Intro and episode preview 05:30 Why outliers drive stock picking returns 09:58 Why today’s inflation may not be the 1970s 17:27 Rethinking the small-cap premium 24:11 AI disruption and vertical market software 32:04 The AI boom versus the rest of the economy 37:04 Why the S&P 500 acts like 46 stocks 46:09 What investors can learn from management teams 53:32 Why today’s tech boom is not the 1990s 58:34 Patience, conviction and the last investing edge 01:05:32 Closing thoughts and Excess Returns Substack

    1h 7m

  8. May 3

    Outperformed by Mom | The Weekly Wrap – 5/2/2026

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines what Chris Davis and Rich Bernstein can teach investors about letting winners run, inflation risk, market concentration, dividends, AI, and the difference between economic stories and investment returns. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on portfolio concentration, the 1960s vs. the 1970s, investor complacency, the Fed’s inflation target, durable businesses, and where the next market opportunity may be hiding. Topics Covered Why letting winners run can be so powerful, but so hard for professional investors Chris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling great companies The tradeoff between concentration, diversification and real-world portfolio risk Why Rich Bernstein thinks today may look more like the 1960s than the 1970s How oil prices affect consumer behavior when measured against wages Chris Davis on why perceived risk can be very different from actual risk What cars, insurance and investor behavior reveal about market complacency Why the Fed’s 2% inflation target may not reflect the world investors are living in The relationship between valuation, durability and software stocks Why higher inflation could increase demand for dividends and near-term cash flow Chris Davis on why exceptional people and management teams matter in investing Why AI may be a great economic story but not necessarily a great investment story Timestamps 00:00 Letting winners run, 1960s inflation and investor risk perception 02:18 Chris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling 08:32 Reinvestment risk and the limits of active management 12:45 Why oil shocks may matter less when gasoline is low relative to wages 20:25 Chris Davis on why feeling safe can make investors take more risk 29:20 Rich Bernstein on whether the Fed’s 2% inflation target is outdated 34:08 Chris Davis on durability, valuation and software stocks 39:39 Why cash flow gives durable companies room to adapt 43:16 Rich Bernstein on dividends, inflation and the need for cash today 51:55 Chris Davis on why people matter more than investors think 56:07 The risk and value of investing with exceptional leaders 1:01:30 Rich Bernstein on AI as an economic story vs. an investment story 1:05:13 Why AI productivity may not translate into obvious stock market winners

    1h 10m
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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
7 Ratings

About

Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.

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