"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

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Economist and "Noahpinion" writer Noah Smith and investor Erik Torenberg make sense of what’s happening in the news, technology, business, and beyond, through the lens of economics.

  1. JAN 2

    Europe's Future, Online Politics, and Populism in America

    In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover Europe's economic future, how internet discourse has changed politics, the rise of identitarian populism on both the right and left in America, and more. - Sponsors: Notion AI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done.  Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at ⁠https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102.   NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102   Found  Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com - Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102 Europe continues to focus more on regulation than innovation, creating challenges for economic growthTraditional European industries like auto manufacturing are struggling with the transition to electric vehiclesChinese companies are producing better and cheaper electric cars that align with Europe's climate goalsThe Gaza deal is viewed positively because it considers Gaza's economic future beyond just stopping violenceAn economically self-sustaining Gaza might be less likely to support groups like HamasGulf Arab countries could potentially assist with Gaza's economic development given their expertiseIsrael has been militarily successful against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran but faces global criticismIsrael's approach to international criticism has often relied on projecting strength rather than building alliancesIsrael remains dependent on other countries for military supplies despite its own manufacturing capabilitiesRegular people are disengaging from politics, leaving only the most extreme voices engaged ("evaporative cooling effect")Political discussions on platforms like X (Twitter) have become increasingly extremeYoung political staffers who work for both parties are heavily consuming this extremist contentThe speakers observe parallels to the political unrest of the 1960s-70s, which eventually dissipatedUnlike previous eras, today's extremism remains highly visible online even as the general public tunes outDiscussion of Zohran Mamdani's election in New York as representing a new direction in leftist politicsConcern about the mainstreaming of far-right figures like Nick Fuentes who previously were more fringeThe conversation reflects concern about the polarization between extremes while the majority of people disengageThere's agreement that substantive engagement with ideas is needed rather than simply dismissing opponents- Timestamps: 00:00 — Introduction 00:24 — Europe and Russia 03:02 — China and Electric Cars 04:38 — Israel-Gaza Conflict 06:43 — American Sentiment Toward Israel 09:57 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite 12:00 — Online Extremism and Political Disengagement 22:50 — Staffers and Extremism 24:25 – Sponsor: Found 25:29 — New York Politics and Mamdani 31:47 — The Future of Leftist Politics 34:11 — Race and Identity 38:06 — Islam and Immigration 38:44 — Identitarian Populism 41:44 — Closing Thoughts - FOLLOW on X: https://x.com/eriktorenberg https://x.com/Noahpinion - Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    43 min

  2. 12/05/2025

    Immigration Debate w/ Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry and Noah Smith

    In this episode of Econ 102 originally aired on the Sphere Podcast, Noah Smith and Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry sit down for a debate on immigration. They cover the philosophical underpinnings of their arguments, where they find common ground, border enforcement, deportation, public opinion, and more. - Sponsors: Notion AI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done.  Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102. NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.netsuite.com/102 Found  Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/ - Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102 Noah Smith and Pascal Emmanuel Gobry (PEG) engaged in a debate about immigration policy, focusing primarily on illegal immigration and enforcement approaches.The conversation centered on philosophical positions about borders, practical enforcement strategies, and the societal impacts of immigration policies.Both agreed that nations should have borders and control who enters, though they differed on enforcement methods.Noah advocated for employer-focused enforcement through company audits and fines rather than deportations.PEG supported stronger deportation measures and argued for the value of deterrence.They debated whether deportations would reduce crime affecting legal residents.Both agreed on the fiscal costs of illegal immigration as a significant issue.They discussed the political challenges of passing immigration reform.- Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 05:00 – Philosophical Foundations: Borders, Nations, and Policy 09:00 – “No Human is Illegal” & Historical Context 13:25 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite 15:30 – Enforcement, Detention, and Public Perception 24:00 – Asylum Law, Legislative Gridlock, and Political Realities 28:10 – Sponsor: Found 41:00 – Mass Deportation: Crime, Economics, and Evidence 56:00 – Trust, Public Sentiment, and Policy Limits 1:10:00 – Final Thoughts & Outro - Listen to the Sphere Podcast: Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/48eWEcxSYDyrgjC3lO0EJZ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCB2gs2TBXeP7vyn9QUaaxjQ - FOLLOW on X: Pascal - https://x.com/pegobry_en Noah - https://x.com/Noahpinion - Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    1h 24m

  3. 11/11/2025

    AI Business Models, Rare Earths, and China's Economic Challenges

    In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore AI's effects on productivity, how AI business models will shake out, the US and China's rare earth minerals industries, and China's economic challenges, including demographics, real estate, and involution. - Sponsors: Notion AI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done.  Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102. NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.netsuite.com/102 Found  Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/ - Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102 AI can affect productivity in multiple ways: replacing humans, enhancing human productivity, creating new tasks, and increasing capital productivityAI may follow other essential industries with low profit margins despite creating enormous value:Like farming, solar power, and airlinesCode-related AI applications are seeing particularly strong adoptionVertical AI applications in specific industries (healthcare, legal, real estate) are gaining tractionChina controls the majority of rare earth mining and refiningThe US has sufficient rare earth deposits but faces two challenges:Regulatory barriers to miningLack of solvent extraction technology and know-howChina's fertility rate is lower than Japan and EuropeHowever, a "baby bulge" (ages 7-22) will support the workforce short-term- Timestamps: 00:00 — Intro 00:52 — AI’s impact on productivity 02:27 — Debating whether AI will increase productivity 03:11 — Historical analogy: Electricity’s impact on productivity, lessons for AI 07:55 — Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite 09:57 — Application layer companies, AI in coding, vertical AI applications 12:49 — AI bubble vs. CapEx boom/bust, historical parallels (railroads, telecoms) 16:54 — Brand loyalty, price wars, and profitability in AI models 22:26 — US-China trade, rare earths, and supply chain challenges 32:20 — Sponsor: Found 33:33 — China’s demographic and economic challenges, over-competition, and deflation 54:06 — Recommendations for China’s economic policy, rationalizing the economy - FOLLOW on X: https://x.com/eriktorenberg https://x.com/Noahpinion - Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    55 min

  4. 10/08/2025

    Manufacturing's Future, The Electric Tech Stack, and Automation

    In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover the transformation of global manufacturing, the rise of the electric tech stack, the landscape of jobs and economic policy, and the state of today's online discourse. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ – FOLLOW on X: https://x.com/eriktorenberg https://x.com/Noahpinion – Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    56 min

  5. 08/27/2025

    Who Profits from AI?

    In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and explore how AI is reshaping the economy, jobs, business profitability, industry competition, and financing, while drawing historical parallels and offering insights into its broader societal impact. – SPONSORS: Zcash Zcash offers private, encrypted digital money that protects users from AI-powered surveillance, allowing people to store and spend wealth without compromising their privacy.  Try it out. Download Zashi wallet and follow @genzcash to learn more: ⁠https://x.com/genzcash⁠ Notion AI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done.  Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at ⁠notion.com/lp/econ102⁠ NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/ - Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at ⁠notion.com/lp/econ102 AI Bubble Prediction: The speaker forecasts an AI crash similar to the 2001 dot-com bust, but believes AI will ultimately succeed long-termEmployment Evolution, Not Elimination: Research shows unemployment rising in jobs that use AI less, contradicting fears that AI directly replaces workersData Center Financing Risks: How financing methods for AI infrastructure could create systemic risks similar to the 2008 financial crisis if private credit becomes the main vehicleBond Market Shift: Companies like Meta are increasingly issuing their own bonds rather than using opaque private credit markets, a healthier approach to AI infrastructure financingMultiple Winners in AI: How the massive size of AI markets is enabling multiple successful companies in each category despite traditional concerns about moatsVenture Capital's AI Approach: a16z has been investing heavily in AI companies but feels they've been "too conservative" given the multiple winners emerging across categoriesQuotes: "We tend to think that the markets are just so much bigger, and so even if there's no traditional moats protecting it from other entrants, that there can be multiple winners in a category.” - Erik Torenberg LINKS: The a16z podcast: ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYX⁠Noahpinion newsletter: ⁠https://noahpinion.substack.com/⁠Erik Torenberg's Substack: ⁠https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to Econ102@Turpentine.co - FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    56 min

  6. 08/15/2025

    AGI Thought Experiment with Dwarkesh Patel, Noah Smith, and Erik Torenberg | From the a16z Podcast

    In this episode from the a16z Podcast, Dwarkesh Patel, Noah Smith, and Erik Torenberg discuss AGI, exploring how AI might transform labor markets, economic growth, space exploration, and geopolitical dynamics in the coming decades. – SPONSORS: Zcash Zcash offers private, encrypted digital money that protects users from AI-powered surveillance, allowing people to store and spend wealth without compromising their privacy.  Try it out. Download Zashi wallet and follow @genzcash to learn more: https://x.com/genzcash Notion AI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done.  Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102 NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/ - Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102 Defining AGI: Noah and Dwarkesh begin by establishing working definitions of Artificial General Intelligence - from systems that "can do almost any job at least as well as humans" to more near-term AI that "can automate 95% of white-collar work"Current AI Limitations: Present systems lack crucial continual learning capabilities that would allow them to build context over time and improve with experience like humans doHistorical Parallels: The conquistadors' conquest of the Aztec and Inca empires provides a cautionary tale about information asymmetry and how technological advantages can lead to dominationAI Cooperation: The hosts discuss the need for US-China cooperation on AI safety, similar to the "red telephone" during the Cold War, to prevent AI-related sabotageAI Market Competition: Analysis of the surprising trend of increasing rather than decreasing competitors at the AI frontier, despite rising costs of training frontier modelsNetwork Effects vs. Technical Capability: Discussion of whether brand recognition (like "ChatGPT") or technological advantages will determine market leadersQuotes: "If you make the best AI, it gets even better. So why enter that? That's the big question." - Noah Smith LINKS: The a16z podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYXNoahpinion newsletter: https://noahpinion.substack.com/Dwarkesh podcast: https://www.dwarkesh.com/Erik Torenberg's Substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to Econ102@Turpentine.co - FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    1h 16m

  7. 07/31/2025

    Making Sense of Milei, AI & Employment, and America's Future

    In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore Argentina's economic reforms under President Milei, development models in emerging economies like Vietnam and Malaysia, effective crime reduction strategies, and how AI might reshape our workforce and population dynamics in the coming decades. – SPONSORS: Carta Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at ⁠z.carta.com/econ102⁠. NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Shopify Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 - Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102 Argentina's Economic Reforms: President Milei's fiscal austerity measures to address chronic deficits without dollarization, focusing on necessary belt-tightening for a middle-income country supporting an upper-income welfare stateDevelopment Models in Emerging Economies: Case studies like Vietnam and Bangladesh demonstrating different paths to economic developmentThe Crime Rate Decline: Focused deterrence approaches and community policing helping reduce violent crime, especially among high-risk populationsEducation and Fertility Rates: The inverse relationship between women's education and fertility rates, and the impossibility of reversing it without dystopian measuresAI and Population Dynamics: How artificial intelligence might mitigate economic damage from population decline by replacing human laborQuotes: "If AI really can replace humans, then that will mitigate the economic damage from the losses of population." - Noah Smith "Murders between people who know each other, between people who are like intimate partner violence has gone way down." - Noah Smith "We need to basically create technologies that make it easy to take care of kids so that parenthood doesn't mean it's giant change in your life." - Noah Smith LINKS: Noahpinion newsletter: https://noahpinion.substack.com/Erik Torenberg's Substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to Econ102@Turpentine.co - FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    54 min

  8. 07/22/2025

    Sam D'Amico and Noah Smith on How China Masters Manufacturing (And How America Can Catch Up)

    This week, we’re airing a live conversation between Noah Smith and Sam D’Amico, founder and CEO of Impulse Labs, about how China’s Electric Tech Stack and tightly integrated supply chains are fueling its lead in industries from EVs to robotics, while exploring solutions for revitalizing U.S. manufacturing. The conversation also covers regulatory challenges, the value of co-locating engineers and factories, and the role of advanced technologies in shaping global production. – SPONSORS: Carta Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102. NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Shopify Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://adquick.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @sdamico @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠ https://www.impulselabs.com/ – TAKEAWAYS: The "Electric Tech Stack" Revolution: Electric Tech Stack" - batteries, motors, power electronics, and chips. This stack is replacing traditional manufacturing across industries, turning everything from cars to military equipment into "fancy drones. Why America Struggles with Manufacturing: Engineers live in expensive NIMBY cities while factory workers live elsewhere, breaking the crucial feedback loop needed for hardware iteration. China's Advantages: Chinese companies expect to build 200-300 prototype units before shipping, with engineers working directly with factory workers. Policy Solutions: Every major US city needs its own "Shenzhen" - a nearby manufacturing hub where engineers can drive to factories in 2 hours. The Appliance Strategy: Sam's company Impulse is using battery-powered stoves as a trojan horse to rebuild America's electric tech stack manufacturing base. By creating domestic demand for these technologies outside EVs, they're building the supply chain that other companies can leverage. The Stakes: The conversation emphasizes that this isn't just about economics - it's about national security. When Ukraine's toy drones can destroy Russian bombers 4,000 kilometers away, mastering the electric tech stack becomes a matter of military survival. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    55 min
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Economist and "Noahpinion" writer Noah Smith and investor Erik Torenberg make sense of what’s happening in the news, technology, business, and beyond, through the lens of economics.

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