美轮美换 The American Roulette

Baihua Media
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  • Politics
  • Updated Biweekly

一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客

  1. 085 | 民意触底，党内封神：特朗普的五月 Trump's May

    1d ago

    085 | 民意触底，党内封神：特朗普的五月 Trump's May

    Same Room 纽约华语播客节 沙龙致力于拓展线下活动的公共性。我们主张众说纷纭而非整齐划一；我们拥抱多元视角而非标准答案。我们审视和反抗无意识的价值规训与随波逐流；我们冷酷地剖析自己的偏见，热忱地唤醒失落的维度。我们邀请每一颗寻找意义的心灵进入这个空间，真诚地感知、言说、倾听、理解。 这也是中文播客在这几年带给我们的力量之源。我们习惯于在异步时空中，独自聆听那些散落全球的美好中文——他们记录大时代、解构流行文化、观察城市与政治、想象参与世界的新方法……我们赞叹于那些独特的观点，并且渴望回应与共鸣。 于是我们决定：让这些声音在同一个空间回响。我们邀请来自 11 个播客的 12 位主播，从录音室出来，走进同一个房间，带着自己的叙事与视角，用声波碰撞，激荡出一个丰饶的公共声场。我们也邀请你，放下耳机，走进房间，成为塑造这个声场的在场者。 参与主播： 《起朱楼宴宾客》大卫翁 《疲惫娇娃》小杨 《美轮美换》Lokin 《城市传说》罗雨翔 《行星酒馆》东尼 《唠点纽约嗑》Rachel 47 / 杨蒙恩 《纽约漫谈录》欧阳斌 《残言片语》仁慈 / 伊如 《硅谷 101》/《新新人类》一闻 《选修课》老赵 活动形式： 三场对话，每场一小时。具体分组与话题会在未来公布。 时间：2026-06-14 周日 2-6 PM 地点：Cooper Union Rose Auditorium 地址：41 Cooper Sq, New York, NY 10008 报名链接：https://luma.com/1ver2cyw 【聊了什么】 五月的特朗普，活在两个截然不同的美国里。党外，他的支持率跌到 34% 上下的历史低点，油价冲破每加仑 4 美元、部分州突破 5 美元，民众一边为夏天的出行账单肉痛，一边看着华盛顿忙着把总统头像印上 250 美元纪念钞、给林肯纪念堂旁的雕像镀 24K 金；党内，他却把"复仇之旅"推向高潮——卡西迪、马西、康宁三位现任参议员接连在初选中落马，党内地位达到随心所欲的封神状态。 本期我们从伊朗僵局聊起，一路谈到 17.76 亿的反武器化基金、选区重划的焦土战争，中期选举最新形势，以及万斯的失势与卢比奥的崛起。 本期节目录制于美国时间5月31日。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 1:53 伊朗战争还能否收场 8:31 油价飞涨：夏天为何是选举前的经济观察窗口 12:35 17.76 亿反武器化基金：起诉自家 IRS，再和解套现 20:59 华盛顿面子工程：250 美元纪念钞与白宫东翼舞厅 23:56 特朗普的历史级低支持率 25:54 选区重划博弈：弗吉尼亚、南卡到阿拉巴马 37:19 特朗普的复仇之旅：连斩卡西迪、马西、康宁三位参议员 43:23 康宁 vs 帕克斯顿：蝎子与青蛙的寓言与选情 56:12 民主党：缅因 Platner 丑闻与加州初选 1:03:52 2028 风向：万斯失势、卢比奥崛起与"帝王之术" 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 本期的主播和嘉宾： 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 In May, Trump lived in two entirely different Americas. Outside the party, his approval sank to a record low of around 34%, gas prices broke $4 a gallon (over $5 in some states), and while Americans winced at their summer travel bills, Washington was busy putting the president's face on a $250 commemorative bill and gilding a statue near the Lincoln Memorial in 24K gold. Inside the party, however, he pushed his "revenge tour" to its peak — sitting Senators Cassidy, Massie, and Cornyn all fell in their primaries, cementing his grip on the GOP to the point of near-total dominance. This episode runs from the Iran stalemate to the $1.776 billion "anti-weaponization" fund, the scorched-earth battle over redistricting, the latest midterm outlook, and Vance's decline alongside Rubio's rise. Recorded May 31. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 1:53 Iran: Is There Any Way Out of This War? 8:31 Surging Gas Prices: Why Summer Is the Economic Window Before an Election 12:35 The $1.776B Anti-Weaponization Fund: Suing Your Own IRS, Then Settling for Cash 20:59 Washington's Vanity Projects: The $250 Bill and the White House East Wing Ballroom 23:56 Trump's Historic Low Approval 25:54 The Redistricting Wars: From Virginia to South Carolina to Alabama 37:19 Trump's Revenge Tour: Taking Down Cassidy, Massie, and Cornyn 43:23 Cornyn vs. Paxton: The Scorpion and the Frog, in Texas 56:12 The Democrats: Maine's Platner Scandal and California's Primary 1:03:52 Eyes on 2028: Vance's Fall, Rubio's Rise, and the Art of the Throne 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

    1h 9m

  2. May 12

    番外 | 城市传说 Urban Myths | 我在黑人区做规划：美式“政治正确”的傲慢与偏见

    【聊了什么】 这期节目是一期番外节目，我们在这里推荐一下我们的一位嘉宾，罗雨翔老师新推出的播客栏目《城市传说》。如果你喜欢，欢迎在各个播客平台关注这档节目。 这是一个第一人称视角下的城市与社会“微观察”系列节目。 本期故事是我在一个美国南部城市的黑人区做项目时的亲身经历。当政府把一位黑人女性“空降”进我们的项目组时，我的第一反应不是欢迎，而是警惕：这是关系户？还是政治正确的体现？但这个看似简单的判断，最终把我带向了一系列更复杂的问题——关于身份、偏见，以及我们口中的“公平”，到底意味着什么？ 🎙讲故事的人 罗雨翔 ，美国注册城市规划师，现居纽约。曾就职于纽约市政府，参与并主持北美30余地的地产开发及公共投资项目。毕业于哈佛大学(建筑)及伦敦政治经济学院(区域经济)。著有《创造大都会：纽约空间与制度观察》(上海三联书店｜后浪)，并在《澎湃》《忽左忽右》等媒体发表评论。 👩🏾🦱故事主人公 Viola就是那位被政府“空降”进项目组的成员，也是在这个过程中让我不断重新理解许多问题、并让我反过来质疑我自己的人。 ⏳时间轴 Part 1 遭遇最强“关系户” 02:00 来到特朗普的基本盘 07:15 黑人区风情 13:36 一种很有感染力的笑 Part 2 地头蛇 19:12 我差点让团队没饭可吃 23:53 把项目会开到“家”里 26:29 The Taste of the Community Part 3 困扰我的三个问题 31:20 我是否剥削了她？ 34:09 公众参与是否只是合法性装饰？ 36:09 政治正确是否公平？ 本期故事基于真实经历创作，人物、地点与细节经过处理，不完全对应现实。 📩邮箱：urban.myths.podcast@outlook.com 📗公众号：不成熟研究 📕小红书：城市传说 Urban Myths 🌠小宇宙：城市传说 Urban Myths

    45 min
  3. 084 | 《投票权法》之死和选区重划战争升级 How the VRA Died

    May 6

    084 | 《投票权法》之死和选区重划战争升级 How the VRA Died

    【聊了什么】 2026年4月29日，最高法院在 Louisiana v. Callais 案中以6-3裁定，事实上掏空了1965年《投票权法》的第二条，这也是首席大法官罗伯茨在长达四十多年司法生涯的"收官之作"。从2013年的 Shelby County 到今天，南方各州终于可以名正言顺地按党派利益重划选区，而几乎不再受到种族歧视效果的实质约束。本期节目我们请回了林三土老师，和我们一起把这场判决的来龙去脉：1965年VRA是怎么诞生的、两党围绕第二条经历过怎样的拉锯、此前的判决如何为今天埋下伏笔，以及它接下来意味着什么。 除了VRA这条主线，我们也聊了白宫记者晚宴外那场抽象的未遂枪击案、DHS停摆终于在沉默中结束、薛定谔式的伊朗战事，以及缅因州州长Janet Mills退选、Graham Plantner锁定民主党提名——这是民主党的"茶党时刻"，还是只是建制派的又一次失败？ 本期节目录制于5月3日。 更正与澄清：本期节目中提到特朗普被陪审团认定的是"性侵"而不是"强奸"。但 2023 年 8 月联邦法官 Lewis Kaplan 在驳回特朗普反诉时明确写道：说特朗普强奸了 Carroll，这个陈述"实质上是真实的"（substantially true）。之所以 5 月陪审团没勾"rape"那一栏，是因为90年代事发当时的纽约州刑法对强奸的定义非常窄，必须是阴茎侵入阴道（该法2024年已将强奸定义修改为包含更多侵入式性行为）。而陪审团认定的事实是手指强行侵入——这在纽约刑法以外的通用语境里，就是强奸。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 01:50 路易斯安那 v. Callais：最高法院6-3掏空投票权法第二条 04:36 从1965年立法到罗伯茨的四十年布局 07:12 2019年Rucho案埋下的伏笔 17:08 2010年中期选举：南方政治版图的彻底翻转 24:25 选区重划军备竞赛 39:55 下一步会不会是"一人一票"？ 46:50 选民反对gerrymandering，但也并不懂 56:30 白宫记者晚宴枪击案 1:04:40 DHS停摆结束：没有赢家的胜利 1:08:25 国会乱局 1:14:40 Janet Mills退选与Plantner锁定提名 1:22:33 薛定谔式的伊朗战事 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 本期的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 林垚，政治学、哲学、法学学者，高校教师，公众号“林三土”，播客“时差”、“催稿拉黑”，2024年出版文集《空谈》 【 What We Talked About】 On April 29, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Louisiana v. Callais, effectively gutting Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. For Chief Justice John Roberts, this is the capstone of a four-decade judicial career devoted to dismantling the VRA. From Shelby County in 2013 to today, Southern states can now openly redraw districts along partisan lines with little meaningful constraint from claims of racial discrimination. In this episode, we're joined once again by Lin Santu to walk through the full arc of the ruling: how the VRA came into being in 1965, how the two parties fought over Section 2 across the decades, how earlier decisions laid the groundwork for what just happened, and what comes next. Beyond the VRA, we also get into the strangely amateurish attempted shooting outside the White House Correspondents' Dinner, the quiet end of the DHS shutdown, the Schrödinger's-cat status of the Iran war, and Maine governor Janet Mills dropping out of the Senate primary while Graham Plantner locks up the Democratic nomination — is this the Democrats' Tea Party moment, or just another defeat for the establishment? Recorded May 3. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 01:50 Louisiana v. Callais: Supreme Court Guts Section 2 of the VRA in 6-3 Ruling 04:36 From the 1965 VRA to Roberts' Four-Decade Crusade 07:12 How Rucho v. Common Cause (2019) Set the Stage 17:08 The 2010 Midterms: When the South Flipped for Good 24:25 The Redistricting Arms Race 39:55 Could "One Person, One Vote" Be Next? 46:50 Voters Oppose Gerrymandering — and Don't Really Get It 56:30 The Shooting Outside the White House Correspondents' Dinner 1:04:40 The DHS Shutdown Ends: A Victory With No Winners 1:08:25 Chaos on the Hill 1:14:40 Janet Mills Drops Out as Plantner Locks Up the Nomination 1:22:33 Schrödinger's Iran War 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Lin Yao, scholar of political science, philosophy, and law; university faculty member; author of the WeChat public account "林三土"; host of the podcasts "时差" and "催稿拉黑"; published essay collection Empty Talk (《空谈》) in 2024.

    1h 26m
  4. 083 | AI 成年礼：从"最聪明的模型"到"最烫手的政治问题" AI Goes Political

    Apr 27

    083 | AI 成年礼：从"最聪明的模型"到"最烫手的政治问题" AI Goes Political

    【聊了什么】 如果说 2022 年底 ChatGPT 的发布让 AI 走进了大众视野，那 2026 年初 Anthropic 被白宫封杀的那一周，可能就是 AI 真正走进政治的那一刻。一家商业公司因为坚持不让自己的产品用于监控和自主武器，被列上了原本只留给外国敌对势力的名单；而它最大的竞争对手，在同一天签下了五角大楼的合同。 这期节目中，我们和《新新人类》的主播一闻、硅谷投资人磊一起聊了AI是如何变成最烫手的政治问题的：红线到底该由谁来画？当 Super PAC 开始用 AI 的钱打中期选举、当数据中心让红州蓝州的电价一起上涨、当美国公众对 AI 的反感度已经跌穿地板——AI 的"核弹时刻"到底是技术奇点，还是政治奇点？我们也顺便聊了聊中美在这件事上正在经历的两种截然不同的现实。 本期节目录制于4月初。 我们和Superlinear Academy合作，为听众争取到了AI基础课程的优惠，使用专属折扣码购买可享受4-5折。 购买链接：coding.ai-builders.com 折扣码：美元购买MLMH，人民币购买MLMHY 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 05:26 Anthropic与五角大楼撕破脸：AI政治化的转折点 07:08 两条红线：大规模监控与全自主武器 10:01 立法真空下，商业公司被迫当仲裁者 12:53 硅谷政治转向与员工抗议的复活 16:53 Anthropic的商业账本：合同不如公众形象值钱 19:28 Dario vs Sam Altman：同一天两种结局 26:25 Super PAC对AI监管的冲突 32:50 AI好感度比ICE还低 34:55 中美两种现实：小龙虾与"温水煮青蛙" 40:39 数据中心、电价与NIMBY：AI恐惧的具象化 45:41 如果AI创造所有GDP，普通人还有筹码吗？ 52:50 Bernie Sanders的Claude视频与左派的AI叙事 56:03 Token出海：中美AI的两种工业体系 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 本期的主播和嘉宾： 小华：媒体人 一闻：一个对地铁比手机更上瘾的记者 Lei：风险投资人 【 What We Talked About】 If the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 was the moment AI entered the public consciousness, then the week in early 2026 when Anthropic was blacklisted by the White House may well be the moment AI entered politics. A commercial company, for refusing to let its product be used for surveillance and autonomous weapons, was placed on a list previously reserved for foreign adversaries — while its biggest competitor signed a Pentagon contract the very same day. In this episode, we sit down with Yiwen, host of Pixel Perfect, and Lei, a Silicon Valley investor, to unpack how AI became the most politically charged issue of the moment. Who gets to draw the red lines? When Super PACs start spending AI money to swing the midterms, when data centers push up electricity bills across red and blue states alike, when American public sentiment toward AI has fallen through the floor — is AI's "nuclear moment" a technological singularity, or a political one? We also get into the two starkly different realities the U.S. and China are living through on this front. Recorded in early April. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 05:26 Anthropic vs. the Pentagon: The Turning Point of AI's Politicization 07:08 Two Red Lines: Mass Surveillance and Fully Autonomous Weapons 10:01 In a Legislative Vacuum, Companies Are Forced to Arbitrate 12:53 Silicon Valley's Political Shift and the Return of Employee Protest 16:53 Anthropic's Math: Public Image Beats Government Contracts 19:28 Dario vs. Sam Altman: Two Outcomes on the Same Day 26:25 Super PACs Go to War Over AI Regulation 32:50 AI Polls Worse Than ICE 34:55 Two Realities: OpenClaw and the Slow-Boiling Frog 40:39 Data Centers, Electric Bills, and NIMBY: Where AI Fear Gets Real 45:41 If AI Creates All the GDP, What Leverage Do Ordinary People Have? 52:50 Bernie Sanders' Claude Video and the Left's AI Narrative 56:03 Tokens Go Overseas: Two Industrial Systems for AI 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Yiwen: Journalist Lei: Investor

    1h 1m
  5. 082 | 薛定谔的霍尔木兹、国会大扫除、特朗普 vs 教皇 Hormuz Limbo

    Apr 21

    082 | 薛定谔的霍尔木兹、国会大扫除、特朗普 vs 教皇 Hormuz Limbo

    【聊了什么】 我们在这期节目中一起复盘了这半个月美国政治的几条主线。伊朗战争方向，特朗普的"脱身"与伊朗的"既成事实"之间反复拉锯——霍尔木兹海峡开放又关闭、封锁被封锁、以黎停火让以色列错愕、美军登船搜查油轮，我们试图分析接下来的走向。 国内方面，中期选举的布局已经开始，消费者信心指数创75年新低，化肥和牛肉价格成为特朗普亲自下场关心的问题。我们还聊了国会两党"一换一"式的丑闻清洗（Swalwell退选加州州长、Tony Gonzales辞职），以及特朗普与教皇之间的冲突，以及纽约时报最新披露的最高法院shadow docket内部备忘录。 本期节目录制于美国时间2026年4月18日上午。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:46 伊朗局势15天大反转：从停火重启到一触即发 07:16 特朗普想不想打？美方开价比奥巴马核协议还低 10:32 伊朗内部撕裂：议长圆话、强硬派反弹、抵抗轴心动摇 16:47 特朗普绕开以色列宣布黎以停火 19:47 霍尔木兹既成事实：拖下去对美国越不利 21:47 Susie Wiles启动中期选举备战 26:47 共和党的隐忧：选民失望但不转投、信心指数创75年新低 29:53 MAGA内部清算：卡尔森挨打、Joe Rogan被优待 34:40 TPUSA成"反指"：地方选举的意外反噬 42:15 Swalwell丑闻与两党"交换辞职"的潜规则 55:45 匈牙利选举 58:54 特朗普大战教皇 1:07:28 阿利托、托马斯会退吗？ 1:12:54 纽时爆料：Shadow Docket十年前如何诞生 1:18:18 伊朗队还能来世界杯吗？新泽西交通坐地起价 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 【 What We Talked About】 In this episode, we walk through the main threads of U.S. politics over the past two weeks. On Iran, Trump's push to extract himself and Tehran's push to establish facts on the ground keep pulling against each other — the Strait of Hormuz opens and closes, a blockade gets counter-blockaded, an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire catches Israel off guard, and U.S. forces move toward boarding and searching tankers. We try to make sense of where this is heading. On the domestic front, the midterm positioning has begun. Consumer confidence has hit a 75-year low, and fertilizer and beef prices have become issues Trump is weighing in on personally. We also get into the tit-for-tat scandal purge playing out in Congress (Swalwell dropping his California gubernatorial bid, Tony Gonzales resigning), Trump's clash with the Pope, and the New York Times' newly surfaced internal memos on the Supreme Court's shadow docket. This episode was recorded on the morning of April 18, 2026, U.S. time. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:46 Iran in 15 Days: From Ceasefire Restart to the Brink 07:16 Does Trump Actually Want War? U.S. Offering Less Than Obama's Deal 10:32 Cracks Inside Iran: The Speaker's Spin, Hardliner Backlash, and a Shaken Axis of Resistance 16:47 Trump Announces Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire — Without Telling Israel 19:47 Hormuz as Fait Accompli: Every Day That Passes Hurts the U.S. 21:47 Susie Wiles Kicks Off Midterm Prep 26:47 The GOP's Quiet Problem: Disillusioned Voters Who Won't Switch Sides, Confidence at a 75-Year Low 29:53 MAGA Infighting: Carlson Gets Hit, Rogan Gets a Pass 34:40 TPUSA as Reverse Indicator: The Local Election That Backfired 42:15 The Swalwell Scandal and Washington's Unwritten "Trade-a-Resignation" Rule 55:45 Hungary's Election 58:54 Trump vs. the Pope 1:07:28 Will Alito or Thomas Retire? 1:12:54 NYT Scoop: How the Shadow Docket Was Born a Decade Ago 1:18:18 Can Iran's Team Still Play the World Cup? New Jersey's Transit Price Gouge 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

    1h 16m
  6. 081 | 伊朗腹地大营救、邦迪下台与出生公民权之争

    Apr 5

    081 | 伊朗腹地大营救、邦迪下台与出生公民权之争

    【聊了什么】 美军F-15被击落后，一场天价的营救行动在伊朗腹地上演——临时机场、运输机陷入泥土、最终炸毁滞留飞机撤离。整个过程堪比好莱坞大片，但"丧事喜办"的背后是一个更深层的战略困境：特朗普的降温方式就是升级，而伊朗政权则在为自己的生存而战。闪电战变成了持久战，双方的战争目标越拉越远，僵局看不到出口。与此同时，油价攀升、民调下滑、共和党基本盘松动，美国国内形势也给战局带来更多不确定性。 战场之外，特朗普政府内部暗流涌动。司法部长邦迪在去最高法院的路上被特朗普当面解雇，国防部长赫格塞斯因偏执症般的不安全感大规模清洗军方高层，卢特尼克、加巴德等多名内阁成员据报也面临下台风险。 最高法院则就出生公民权展开口头辩论，特朗普史无前例地亲自到庭旁听，但从大法官们的提问来看，这场宪法之争的走向恐怕不会如他所愿。 本期节目录制于美国时间2026年4月5日上午。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:44 F-15被击落与天价伊朗腹地大营救 06:24 升级困境：特朗普唯一的降温方式就是升级 08:39 伊朗战争目标演变：从政权存续到重塑海湾格局 13:50 美国的战争目标到底是什么？越列越多，越来越模糊 15:44 总统只看到"玫瑰色战况" 19:51 特朗普民调三次断崖 24:41 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 29:26 特朗普的红线画了几条已经数不清 32:01 赫格塞斯大清洗 45:47 邦迪被解雇 49:14 司法部长接任人选大盘点 57:07 下一波清洗：卢特尼克、加巴德、劳工部长？ 60:33 最高法院大法官换人窗口 1:06:23 出生公民权之争：第十四修正案与特朗普亲临旁听 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 After a U.S. F-15 was shot down, a massively expensive rescue operation unfolded deep inside Iranian territory — a makeshift airfield, transport planes stuck in mud, and stranded aircraft ultimately destroyed before extraction. The whole episode could have been a Hollywood blockbuster, but behind the spectacle lies a deeper strategic dilemma: Trump's only way to de-escalate is to escalate, while the Iranian regime is fighting for its very survival. What was supposed to be a lightning strike has turned into a war of attrition, with each side's objectives drifting further apart and no off-ramp in sight. Meanwhile, rising oil prices, falling approval ratings, and cracks in the Republican base are adding more uncertainty to the equation. Off the battlefield, turmoil is brewing inside the Trump administration. Attorney General Bondi was fired by Trump in person on the way to the Supreme Court. Defense Secretary Hegseth, gripped by paranoia over his own job security, has launched the largest purge of senior military officials in recent memory. Other cabinet members — including Lutnick and Gabbard — are also reportedly at risk. At the Supreme Court, oral arguments over birthright citizenship took center stage. Trump made an unprecedented appearance in the courtroom, but judging from the justices' questioning, this constitutional battle is unlikely to go his way. This episode was recorded on the morning of April 5, 2026, U.S. time. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 00:44 F-15 shot down and the costly rescue deep inside Iran 06:24 The escalation trap: Trump's only way to de-escalate is to escalate 08:39 Iran's evolving war aims: from regime survival to reshaping the Gulf 13:50 What are America's war objectives? The list keeps growing, the vision keeps blurring 15:44 The president is only seeing the "rosy" version of the war 19:51 Three cliff drops in Trump's approval ratings 24:41 The Strait of Hormuz blockade 29:26 Trump's red lines: too many to count 32:01 Hegseth's military purge 45:47 Bondi fired 49:14 The attorney general succession: a rundown of contenders 57:07 Next wave of firings: Lutnick, Gabbard, Labor Secretary? 60:33 The Supreme Court vacancy window 1:06:23 The birthright citizenship fight: the 14th Amendment and Trump's courtroom appearance 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

    1h 13m
  7. 080 | 披着新闻外衣的政治机器：美国右翼媒体如何打赢信息战 Weapons of Mass Deception

    Mar 18

    080 | 披着新闻外衣的政治机器：美国右翼媒体如何打赢信息战 Weapons of Mass Deception

    【聊了什么】 在过去的几十年里，右翼构建了和主流媒体完全不同的一套生态，他们系统性地建设自己的智库、媒体、草根组织和学术网络。今天我们看到的福克斯新闻、布莱巴特、Daily Wire、以及大大小小的右翼网红，都是这几十年深耕积累的结果。研究美国政治和媒体的学者杨云康在新书《Weapons of Mass Deception》中把这套系统拆开来看：这些机构表面上是媒体，实质上是政治组织——有目的、有金主、有动员机制。 这期节目我们和杨老师深入探讨了右翼媒体生态是如何运转的：谁在背后出钱、信息战具体打的是哪几张牌、阴谋论又是如何从社交媒体一路"交易"进主流话语的。我们也聊到了一个新的变化——在creator economy时代，网红正在取代传统媒体成为信息战的主战场。 购买杨云康的新书《Weapons of Mass Deception》：https://www.amazon.com/Weapons-Mass-Deception-Information-Communication/dp/0197820301。主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 05:24 右翼媒体不仅是新闻机构，更是政治组织 16:30 商业模式：为什么许多右翼媒体即使亏损仍能长期存在？ 21:39 意识形态：金主个人观点如何推动比共和党更极端的议程 26:02 右翼信息战：重复谎言、曲解事实与缺乏背景资料的操纵 35:35 “回音室”效应：右翼媒体内部的协调、张力与信息放大 57:15 解决方案：改变双重股权结构以削弱家族金主的控制权 68:04 民主党为何不“抄作业” 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： 小华：媒体人 杨云康：研究美国政治和媒体的学者 【 What We Talked About】 Over the past several decades, the American right has built a media ecosystem entirely separate from the mainstream — systematically investing in think tanks, outlets, grassroots organizations, and academic networks. Fox News, Breitbart, Daily Wire, and the sprawling universe of right-wing influencers are not accidents. They are the product of decades of deliberate infrastructure-building. In his new book Weapons of Mass Deception, scholar Yunkang Yang takes this ecosystem apart piece by piece: these outlets may call themselves media, but they function as political organizations — with clear agendas, deep-pocketed backers, and sophisticated mobilization strategies. In this episode, we sit down with Yunkang to explore how this machine actually works: who's funding it, what specific tactics drive its information warfare, and how fringe conspiracy theories get "traded up the chain" into mainstream discourse. We also discuss a newer shift — in the creator economy era, influencers are increasingly displacing traditional media as the frontline of information warfare, with a much shorter and murkier path from content to policy. Pick up a copy of Weapons of Mass Deception: https://www.amazon.com/Weapons-Mass-Deception-Information-Communication/dp/0197820301 . The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 05:24 Beyond the news: why right-wing media are political organizations 16:30 The business model: how right-wing outlets survive — and thrive — while running at a loss 21:39 The money behind the message: how billionaire backers push agendas more extreme than the GOP itself 26:02 Information warfare: repeating lies, distorting facts, and the power of missing context 35:35 Echo chamber dynamics: coordination, tension, and amplification within the right-wing media network 57:15 A path to accountability: reforming dual-class share structures to curb donor control 68:04 Why the left hasn't copied the playbook 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer Yunkang Yang：A scholar of American politics and media

    1h 6m
  8. 079 | 伊朗战事、中期选举第一枪、DHS换人 Iran war, midterms fire up, and a DHS shakeup

    Mar 8

    079 | 伊朗战事、中期选举第一枪、DHS换人 Iran war, midterms fire up, and a DHS shakeup

    【聊了什么】 2月28日，美以联合对伊朗发起代号"史诗狂怒"的军事打击。第一波空袭直接命中德黑兰市中心，最高领袖哈梅内伊等伊朗最高领导层当场身亡。录制本期节目时，战事已进入第八天——油价飙升，中东各国陷入战火，伊朗政权仍在运转，战争走向可能远比特朗普预期的复杂。 与此同时，中期选举的第一枪在德州打响。James Talarico击败Jasmine Crockett，赢得民主党参议员初选提名。一个年轻、看上去更温和的白人州众议员，打败了哈里斯钦点、全国知名的进步派黑人女议员——战术上的差距，还是民主党更深层问题的信号？共和党这边，现任参议员康宁以微弱优势领先帕克斯顿，特朗普至今未明确背书。 第三件事：国土安全部长克里斯蒂·诺姆在3月5日被炒掉。直接导火索是她在国会听证会上把一笔2.2亿美元的广告合同甩锅给了特朗普。 本期节目录制于美国时间2026年3月7日晚间。 【支持我们】 如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去： 也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。 合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 01:54 "史诗狂怒"行动背景 03:24 谈判破裂还是走过场？以色列如何将美国拖下水 05:00 四个战争目标的内部矛盾：薛定谔的伊朗核能力 07:12 格雷厄姆的幕后操纵：高尔夫球场上的游说 10:55 "任务完成"的历史幽灵：与伊拉克战争对比 21:25 伊朗政权的战略逻辑 34:39 地面部队困境：空袭无法实现战略目标 40:38 《战争权力决议》投票失败：国会能做什么？ 45:43 战争对中期选举的冲击：滞胀风险与民意隐患 52:20 德州民主党初选：塔拉里科击败克罗克特 54:14 塔拉里科的底牌：基督教左派能否打开福音派市场 57:02 克罗克特为何失败 60:17 共和党初选：康宁险胜，特朗普为何迟迟不背书 66:10 克伦肖输掉众议员初选：99%的忠诚也不够用 75:07 导火索：2.2亿广告合同甩锅给特朗普 77:09 丑闻解剖：空壳公司与利益输送 79:34 诺姆转任特使：为何不能彻底踢出局 80:14 穆林接任DHS：特朗普爱上福克斯常客 【我们是谁】 美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。 我们的主播和嘉宾： Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者 王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子 小华：媒体人 【 What We Talked About】 On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched a joint military strike on Iran under the codename "Operation Epic Fury." The first wave of airstrikes hit central Tehran directly, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and the rest of Iran's top leadership. By the time we recorded this episode, the conflict had entered its eighth day — oil prices were surging, the Middle East was engulfed in fighting, and the Iranian regime was still standing. The war may be far more complicated than Trump anticipated. Meanwhile, the midterm election season opened in Texas. James Talarico defeated Jasmine Crockett to win the Democratic Senate primary nomination. A young, ostensibly moderate white state legislator beat a nationally prominent progressive Black congresswoman who had the backing of Kamala Harris — is this a tactical failure, or a signal of something deeper wrong with the Democratic Party? On the Republican side, incumbent Senator Cornyn edged out Paxton by a slim margin, and Trump has yet to commit to a clear endorsement. Third: DHS Secretary Kristi Noem was fired on March 5. The immediate trigger was her testimony before Congress, in which she tried to pin a $220 million ad contract on Trump. This episode was recorded on the night of March 7, 2026 (U.S. time). 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【Timeline】 01:54 Background on "Operation Epic Fury" 03:24 Failed negotiations or political theater? How Israel dragged the U.S. in 05:00 Four war objectives, one contradiction: Iran's Schrödinger's nuclear capability 07:12 Graham's behind-the-scenes maneuvering: lobbying on the golf course 10:55 The ghost of "Mission Accomplished": parallels to the Iraq War 21:25 Iran's strategic logic 34:39 The ground troops dilemma: airstrikes can't deliver strategic objectives 40:38 War Powers Resolution vote fails: what can Congress actually do? 45:43 The war's impact on midterms: stagflation risk and shifting public opinion 52:20 Texas Democratic Senate primary: Talarico defeats Crockett 54:14 Talarico's edge: can the Christian left break into the evangelical market? 57:02 Why Crockett lost 60:17 GOP primary: Cornyn edges out — why is Trump holding back his endorsement? 66:10 Dan Crenshaw loses his House primary: 99% loyalty isn't enough 75:07 The trigger: a $220M ad contract blamed on Trump 77:09 The scandal unpacked: shell companies and self-dealing 79:34 Noem reassigned as special envoy: why she can't be fully pushed out 80:14 Mullin takes over DHS: Trump's favorite Fox News regular 【Who We Are】 The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics. Our Hosts and Guests: Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history 王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information 小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

    1h 27m
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