At the Water's Edge

Scott
  • 4.7 (15)
  • News Commentary
  • Weekly

The At the Water’s Edge Podcast explores national security and geopolitics from an insider’s perspective, looking at how national power, industrial policy, diplomacy, and military might shape our world and America’s place in it.

  1. 1d ago

    The Pentagon Is Losing Its Top Strategists During the Iran War

    The Pentagon just fired its top strategist in the middle of a war with Iran, and no replacement has been named. What could go wrong?Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has removed Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia, the Joint Staff's Director for Strategy, Plans and Policy (the J5). He is the second officer pushed out of that job since the administration returned. Within a day, the Pentagon's explanation went from a cordial send-off to accusations of leaking classified information and failed polygraphs, none of it publicly substantiated.Scott breaks down who Sylvia is, what the J5 actually does, and why the office responsible for stress-testing war plans and delivering bad news is so exposed right now. He also covers his predecessor's early exit, the Laura Loomer subplot, what this means for careers and candor inside the Pentagon, and how Tehran is likely reading the turmoil as the U.S. weighs renewed strikes.At the Water's Edge looks for insights beyond the headlines, with a practitioner's view on national security and geopolitics.Chapters:00:00 Intro00:20 Breaking: Pentagon's top planner fired01:00 Who is Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia?02:10 Hegseth's flag officer purge02:40 S, G & J shops: how military staffs work04:20 What the J5 actually does05:35 Why was he fired? The shifting story08:05 The Laura Loomer subplot08:45 His predecessor: Lt. Gen. JP McGee09:40 Why the J5 job gets people fired12:00 DIME and the interagency13:10 An insecure Pentagon and easy answers14:10 What this does to careers inside the building17:50 Eroding institutional brakes18:35 How Iran sees it20:30 Final thoughtsIf you found this useful, follow the show and share it with someone tracking the Iran war.

  2. 3d ago

    The Iran Mistake We Made Before the First Bomb | Ryan McBeth

    Is there a way to end the war with Iran that doesn't totally suck? And where's the line between an online grifter and a foreign state running influence operations against American elections?A week out from the midterms, OSINT analyst and YouTuber Ryan McBeth joins me to break down how information warfare actually works, and why the U.S. keeps leaving its own information operations capability on the shelf.We get into bot farms used to tank stock prices, the Tenet Media case and Russian money behind American influencers, and the Chinese sponsor Ryan turned down because the contract barred criticism of China. Then we turn to Iran: whether the regime is a rational actor, whether this war makes an Iranian bomb inevitable, Ryan's plan for marching on Tehran (and why I think it breaks down in the mountain passes), and why it's easier to get approval for a drone strike than a leaflet drop.Ryan McBeth is a 20-year infantry veteran, former C4ISR software engineer, Newsmax intelligence consultant, and author of The Win Machine and the Deseret series.Find Ryan:Substack: ryanmcbeth.substack.comYouTube: @RyanMcBethProgrammingChapters:00:00 Cold open00:37 Intro01:09 Cigars, Ranger School & firefighting school07:43 Info ops ahead of the midterms08:14 How bot farms short stocks10:49 The grift economy & "decliners"12:02 Tenet Media and paid influencers16:12 The Chinese sponsor Ryan turned down19:39 The economics of military YouTube21:26 From coding interviews to Ukraine's tank turrets25:09 YouTube, Substack & Newsmax27:54 Veterans, partisanship, and finding a lane32:34 Is Iran a rational actor?37:21 Will Iran get the bomb? Containment & blockade42:06 The McBeth plan vs. the terrain46:04 Why no psyop campaign against Iran?49:43 Easier to drop a bomb than a leaflet52:43 Where to find Ryan

  3. 4d ago

    The End of the Netanyahu Era? Why Israel is at a Turning Point

    Israel votes on October 27 in its first national election since October 7, 2023, and the final polls show no one with a clear path to power. Gadi Eisenkot's opposition leads, Netanyahu's bloc is holding at 50 seats, and the Arab-majority parties hold the balance, even though most leaders on both sides say they won't govern with them.In this episode, Scott breaks down how Israel's coalition system works, who's running, why Netanyahu is in trouble, and what a new government would and wouldn't change for Gaza, the war with Iran, and the U.S.-Israel relationship. The face at the top may change, but the core policies on Palestinian statehood and Iran likely won't, and that leaves Washington's "Netanyahu is the problem" argument on thin ice.Recorded October 26, 2026, the day before the vote. Poll figures are from the final Kan, Channel 12 and Channel 13 surveys published October 23.CHAPTERS0:00 Intro1:06 Bottom line: nobody has 61 seats2:03 How Israel's election system works3:46 The main players4:41 Final polls & the bloc math6:28 Why Netanyahu is in trouble9:04 The Arab parties: kingmakers?10:55 The catch: nobody will govern with them13:05 What it means for Palestinians14:32 Iran: expect continuity16:15 Washington & the "Netanyahu excuse"18:16 What to watch on election night19:25 Recap & closeSOURCESHaaretz: final election polls (Oct 23, 2026)Al Jazeera: The Israeli politicians seeking to replace Netanyahu (Oct 17, 2026)Moshe Dayan Center: Survey of Arab Citizens in Israel (May 2026)Reuters via Al-Monitor: Israelis oppose Iran ceasefire (Apr 13, 2026)PBS NewsHour: U.S. strikes Iranian oil tankers (Sept 5, 2026)Gaza Health Ministry figures as of Oct 24, 2026UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry: Gaza genocide finding (Sept 2025)

  4. Oct 23

    Why an IRANIAN INVASION Would BACKFIRE | Robert Pape

    Ships keep getting hit in the Strait of Hormuz, Egypt is weighing whether to send troops to Saudi Arabia, and the IRGC is now threatening to invade neighboring countries if the US strikes again. Professor Robert Pape returns to explain why an Iranian ground invasion would play directly into American strengths, and why Iran’s more dangerous option is fracturing the Gulf states from within. We discuss: The hammer-and-anvil approach to precision warfare, from Bosnia to the Taliban to ISISWhy the alliance that toppled the Taliban couldn’t deliver bin LadenHow Iran could use the Gulf’s Shia populations to break its neighbors apart without occupying themHow failing Gulf states could hit US Treasury markets and interest ratesThe diversionary theory of war and the window between Election Day and the January transitionWhether French, Greek, and Egyptian deployments make this a world warWhy Trump’s promise not to use nuclear weapons isn’t a decision, and why the worst-case analysis given to the President should be declassifiedThe full Q&A with Professor Pape is available the same day to members of The Briefing Room on YouTube. Chapters:00:00 This week: Hormuz, Egypt, and Iran’s invasion threat01:39 Why an invasion would be Iran overreaching11:20 Would Iraqi militias become Iranian territory?16:21 Mapping the Shia in the Gulf states19:04 Iran’s real goal: failed Gulf states, not occupation21:21 Diversionary war and the post-election window24:03 Is this World War III?27:42 Trump rules out nukes. Should we believe it?33:40 Declassify the worst-case analysis

  5. Oct 20

    The Iran War Could Push Africa Toward Collapse | Fidel Amakye Owusu

    How is the war over the Strait of Hormuz reaching Africa? Ghanaian security and geopolitical analyst Fidel Amakye Owusu returns to explain how the Iran war is driving fuel protests, food insecurity, and the risk of state collapse across the continent. We discuss why removed fuel subsidies make this shock hit Africans twice as hard, how Gen Z protests brought down Madagascar’s government, and why military juntas no longer bother pretending to be democracies in a multipolar world. We also cover Egypt weighing troops for Saudi Arabia, Tim Kennedy’s ambush in the DRC and the scramble for critical minerals, the Houthi–al-Shabaab connection across the Bab el-Mandeb, the succession question in Saudi Arabia, and which African states are closest to collapse. Fidel’s warning: when people can’t afford food, they protest. When there’s no food to buy, they take up arms. Fidel Amakye Owusu is a geopolitical and security advisor and CEO of DefSEC Analytics Africa, focused on terrorism, insurgency, and governance across Africa. Africa Intelligence Report (waitlist): https://the-africa-intelligence-report.ghost.io/join-the-waitlist/Fidel on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fidel-amakye-owusu-8158b6149/ Chapters00:00 Intro00:44 How the Iran war hits Africa: fuel prices and lost subsidies04:28 Elections, coups, and the threat to young democracies06:26 Gen Z protests and Madagascar’s new junta07:34 Parallels to the Arab Spring09:22 Why juntas no longer fake democracy12:24 Africa as the testing ground for a multipolar world14:29 Why African states look abroad instead of to each other17:35 Resource nationalism, Erik Prince, and Tim Kennedy in the DRC20:29 When non-state actors rival the state25:59 The Houthis and al-Shabaab: pragmatic extremists29:28 Egypt, Sisi, and troops for Saudi Arabia31:02 Will Sisi actually leave power in 2030?35:35 MBS, Saudi succession, and the UAE rivalry41:33 Fertilizer, the Red Sea, and famine risk in the Horn of Africa45:28 Is hunger more dangerous than fuel prices?47:02 Which African states are closest to collapse?49:38 Where to find Fidel’s work

  6. Oct 16

    Saudi Arabia's Nightmare: The Reality of the Houthi Missile Threat

    Houthi missiles are hitting Riyadh’s main airport, and it’s turning into Saudi Arabia’s worst-case scenario. One strike killed at least 12 people and injured around 300. Flights are cancelled, and the oil executives Saudi Arabia was trying to host have pulled out. This week I trace how we got here, starting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman: his rise to power, the 2017 Ritz-Carlton purge, and his 2015 decision to go to war in Yemen with a military built to protect the monarchy, not to fight. A decade of escalation pushed Iran to arm the Houthis with better and better asymmetric weapons, and that same adaptation is now being used against U.S. forces. Then the bigger question: if the House of Saud can’t keep the kingdom safe, what happens to the deal that has kept it stable? I walk through what’s at stake, from global oil and food supplies to who controls Mecca and Medina. For more on the strategic side of the Iran conflict, go back and listen to the Escalation Trap series with Robert Pape. Want to go one step further? Members of The Briefing Room on YouTube get this week’s companion video, which looks at what most likely comes next if something happens to MBS. https://youtu.be/6E_cTl9em2A

  7. Oct 15

    France, Iran, and the Road to World War III: The Real Risk | Robert Pape

    Ten ships hit in the Strait of Hormuz in a single week, the most of the entire war. Houthi missiles shut down Riyadh's airport in the largest set of attacks in Saudi Arabia's modern history. Now France has confirmed it is sending radar and air defense assets to protect Saudi Aramco infrastructure at Yanbu, less than a couple hours' drive from Medina.Professor Robert Pape returns to explain how France's move could carry the war into Europe, and why the escalation trap is now compounded by a dangerous new dynamic: preemption.We cover:- Why foreign troop deployments are the strongest risk factor for suicide terrorism, from 9/11 to Mali- Why the Houthis have never been defeated, and how the fighting could open the door to AQAP- Radar orientation and why Saudi Patriots may have been blind to Houthi missiles- What the leaked three-day air plan has in common with Desert Storm's Instant Thunder- How four actors with incentives to strike first create a spiral that looks a lot like July 1914- MANPADS, drones, and the growing risk to commercial airlinersWant the full Q&A with Professor Pape? Join The Briefing Room on YouTube. Members get the complete Q&A the same day as the interview, plus members-only content every week.00:00 This week's escalation00:39 Professor Pape returns01:28 Ten ships hit in Hormuz, Riyadh airport struck02:28 France moves to defend Aramco at Yanbu05:00 Why this isn't a world war (yet)07:33 Foreign troops and suicide terrorism: Mali and 9/1114:23 MBS and the Saudi-Houthi war15:38 Yanbu, Medina, and the sectarian map18:45 Can French air defense even help?23:13 Everyone's in the escalation trap now24:30 The three-day air plan and Instant Thunder34:08 Preemptive spirals: a four-player game35:46 The illusion of control and the road to World War I38:15 How this becomes a true world war40:09 MANPADS, drones, and airliners42:45 Q&A preview

  8. Oct 13

    U.S. Brigades Last 24 Hours Against Ukraine’s Drones | MG Duane Miller

    What happens when a U.S. brigade trains against Ukraine's drone forces? They usually have to reset the exercise within 24 hours. Major General Duane Miller, until recently Deputy Commanding General of Security Assistance Group–Ukraine, explains why America is not ready for the speed of modern war. After more than two years watching Ukraine fight, MG Miller argues that the speed of learning is now a measure of national power. Ukraine pushes new tactics, software updates, and drone fixes to the front in two to three weeks. The U.S. averages over a decade to field a new weapon system. In this episode: - Why Ukraine's edge isn't the drones but the learning loop behind them - What happens when U.S. brigades face Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Force - Why Patriot software updates still move by courier - Why Ukraine has stopped wanting some U.S. munitions - How defense primes and procurement rules slow innovation - What the U.S. military should change before the next first battle Links: MG Miller's article, "The Speed of Learning: The New Measure of National Power": https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/speed-learning-new-measure-national-power-duane-miller-ldake/ Watch the full episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Had-NK89U_I At the Water's Edge is a national security and geopolitics podcast hosted by Scott Kelly, a former Green Beret. The views expressed are those of the guest and do not represent the official position of the U.S. Army or Department of Defense.

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4.7
out of 5
15 Ratings

About

The At the Water’s Edge Podcast explores national security and geopolitics from an insider’s perspective, looking at how national power, industrial policy, diplomacy, and military might shape our world and America’s place in it.

Information

  • Creator
    Scott
  • Years Active
    2023 - 2026
  • Episodes
    110
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Scott
  • Show Website
    At the Water's Edge

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