At the Water's Edge

WRKdefined Podcast Network
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The At the Water’s Edge Podcast explores national security and geopolitics from an insider’s perspective, looking at how national power, industrial policy, diplomacy, and military might shape our world and America’s place in it.

  1. 5H AGO

    The Escalation Trap

    The Escalation Trap: Robert Pape on Iran, Airpower, and Strategic Failure Robert Pape will be giving a live briefing the status of the conflict and what stage 3 escalation looks like at 5pm EST 22 March 26 on his substack, Escalation Trap. Robert Pape Robert Pape's Substack HERE (https://escalationtrap.substack.com/) Description: What if the biggest risk in war isn’t failure—but success? In this episode, I’m joined by Robert Pape, Professor at the University of Chicago and one of the leading scholars on coercion, airpower, and political violence. As the conflict with Iran escalates, Professor Pape explains why what we’re seeing isn’t just a series of military exchanges—but a predictable pattern he calls the “escalation trap.” A dynamic where each step forward reduces control, increases pressure to escalate, and makes it harder to achieve political objectives. We break down: Why airpower alone has never achieved regime change How escalation actually progresses in stages Where the real center of gravity lies in the current conflict Why Iran may have more leverage than it appears What policymakers and the media are getting wrong What a realistic endgame could look like This is a practitioner-focused conversation on how wars actually work—and where this one may be headed. Note: This conversation was recorded in real time as events were unfolding. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 02:00 The Escalation Trap explained 08:30 Why airpower fails strategically 17:30 Escalation stages and shifting advantage 26:30 Economic warfare and oil leverage 35:00 Who has the advantage right now 39:00 What policymakers are getting wrong 42:00 What happens next

    47 min

  2. 4D AGO

    Coups, Wagner, and Jihadists: The Battle for the Sahel

    The Sahel region of West Africa has become one of the most unstable security environments in the world. A wave of military coups, expanding jihadist insurgencies, and the growing influence of Russia and the Wagner Group are reshaping the geopolitical landscape across Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and the surrounding region. But what is actually driving the crisis? In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott Kelly sits down with Fidel Amakye Owusu, a security analyst specializing in West African and Sahelian security dynamics, to unpack the forces behind the region’s instability. They discuss the origins of jihadist movements in the Sahel, the collapse of state authority across parts of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, and how insurgent groups are increasingly performing functions traditionally associated with governments — including taxation, control of trade routes, and local security. The conversation also examines the role of French counterterrorism operations, the political consequences of recent military coups, and how Russia and the Wagner Group have expanded their presence as Western forces have withdrawn. Finally, they explore one of the most important questions facing the region: can the democratic states surrounding the Sahel contain the instability, or will the crisis spread further into coastal West Africa? This episode provides a practitioner’s perspective on the evolving security crisis in the Sahel, one of the most important and least understood geopolitical challenges in the world today. Fidel Amakye Owusu is a Ghanaian security analyst focused on terrorism, insurgency, and governance challenges across West Africa and the Sahel. His work examines extremist movements, regional security cooperation, and the political dynamics shaping stability in the region. The rise of jihadist insurgencies in the Sahel Why governance gaps fuel instability in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger How insurgent groups fund themselves through taxation, trade routes, and resource control The impact of French counterterrorism operations in West Africa The recent wave of coups across the Sahel Russia and Wagner’s expanding role in regional security Whether democratic states like Ghana and Senegal can contain the crisis

    57 min

  3. MAR 10

    The Transparent Battlefield: Lessons From the War in Ukraine | Samuel Bendett

    What is the war in Ukraine teaching the world about modern warfare? In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott Kelly speaks with Samuel Bendett of the Center for Naval Analyses, one of the leading analysts tracking Russian military adaptation and the role of drones and emerging technology on the battlefield. They discuss how Western analysts misunderstood Russian capabilities before the 2022 invasion, how the massive proliferation of small drones has made the battlefield increasingly transparent, and why both Russia and Ukraine have turned to commercial technology and civil society to sustain combat operations. The conversation also explores the early role of artificial intelligence in the war, how soldiers on both sides are modifying technology at the tactical edge, and what lessons the United States military should be learning from the conflict. As China, Iran, and other major powers study the war closely, Ukraine has become a real-time laboratory for the future of warfare—and a warning about how quickly modern conflicts can evolve beyond anyone’s expectations. • The battlefield is becoming transparent. The widespread use of small drones means that forces operating near the front line are increasingly visible, forcing militaries to rethink mobility, concealment, and survivability. • Commercial technology is now part of warfare. Both Russia and Ukraine have relied heavily on off-the-shelf drones, radios, and other commercial components, often sourced through civil society networks. • Civil society has become a wartime logistics system. Volunteer groups and online fundraising campaigns have helped supply frontline units with critical equipment—from drones to communications gear. • AI is beginning to appear on the battlefield. Artificial intelligence is being used to process massive quantities of battlefield data and assist with target identification, though fully autonomous systems remain limited. • The world’s militaries are watching closely. China, Iran, North Korea, and others are studying the war in Ukraine to understand how drones, electronic warfare, and battlefield adaptation are reshaping modern conflict.

    42 min

  4. MAR 5

    Can Veterans Fix Congress? | with Richard Ojeda

    Retired Major Richard Ojeda joins At the Water’s Edge to discuss his campaign for North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District, why he believes veterans should play a larger role in American politics, and what he sees as the biggest failures of Washington today. Ojeda spent 24 years in the U.S. Army, much of that time at Fort Bragg, before returning to his hometown in southern West Virginia, where he served as a state senator and became known for his outspoken populist style of politics. In this conversation, we explore how military service shapes his political worldview, the challenges veterans face when transitioning to civilian life, and the role Congress should play in overseeing the executive branch during times of geopolitical tension. The discussion covers everything from VA bureaucracy and rural economic decline to war powers, foreign policy, and populism in both political parties. While the conversation touches on highly political issues, the goal of this episode is not endorsement but understanding—examining how a combat veteran running for Congress views the current strategic and political moment in the United States. Transitioning from military service to civilian life The VA disability system and challenges veterans face navigating it Why Ojeda believes veterans should run for public office Campaigning as a populist Democrat in a Republican-leaning district The role of grassroots campaigning vs. corporate PAC funding Congressional oversight of the executive branch War powers and constitutional limits on presidential authority How foreign policy decisions affect military communities Trade policy, manufacturing, and the economic challenges facing rural America Working across the aisle in Congress Richard Neece Ojeda II is a retired U.S. Army major and former West Virginia state senator. During his military career he served in multiple deployments during the Global War on Terror. After leaving the Army, he entered politics and became known for his outspoken advocacy on behalf of working-class communities and veterans. He is currently running for Congress in North Carolina’s 9th District. Scott Kelly is a former U.S. Army Special Forces officer and the host of At the Water’s Edge, a podcast examining national security, geopolitics, and the strategic challenges shaping the world today from a practitioner’s perspective. If you enjoy the show, please consider: Following the podcast Leaving a rating or review Sharing the episode with someone interested in national security or public service The views expressed by guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of the host or the podcast

    55 min

  5. MAR 4

    War Is the Easy Part. What Happens After Iran’s Regime?

    The United States and Israel are now at war with Iran. Airstrikes, missile exchanges, and regional escalation have reshaped the strategic landscape in a matter of days. But the larger question remains: What happens next inside Iran? In this follow-up conversation, Scott Kelly is joined again by Zolal Habibi, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), to examine how one major opposition movement views this moment—and what they believe comes after. This episode explores the practical, political, and strategic dimensions of regime change in real time. Whether war strengthens or weakens the Iranian regime internally The NCRI’s announcement of a provisional government Claims of resistance activity inside Iran The formation of a potential “Liberation Army” Opposition unity and tensions with the monarchist camp Kurdish autonomy vs. territorial integrity The risk of state collapse and “Libya scenarios” Whether foreign coordination is necessary—or dangerous What a post-regime transition would actually require Does war produce a rally-around-the-flag effect inside Iran? What would signal real regime fracture versus narrative momentum? Can armed opposition movements coordinate without fragmenting? What safeguards would prevent a cycle of revenge or state failure? What confidence can be offered that Iran would not become the next failed state? There are multiple competing Iranian opposition groups with different visions for Iran’s political future. Zolal Habibi represents one of those organizations. Invitations have been extended to other factions—including representatives from the monarchist camp—to present their perspectives in future episodes. The claims expressed in this conversation are those of the guest and her organization and may not be independently verifiable in real time. Regime change is often discussed as a headline. Much less often is it examined as a messy, structural process involving institutions, armed actors, coalition dynamics, and governance capacity. This episode focuses on those mechanics—not just the rhetoric.

    1h 5m

  6. FEB 24

    Air Dominance Was Our Advantage. It May Also Be Our Blind Spot with Ethan Brown

    Ethan Brown returns to At the Water’s Edge to discuss the second volume of his JTAC trilogy, Visual Friendlies: Tally Target, which examines the evolution of close air support during the surge years in Iraq (2006–2008) and Afghanistan (2011–2013). We explore how 20 years of uncontested air dominance reshaped American warfighting culture — from precision targeting in dense urban battle spaces to the rise of persistent ISR and smartphone-level situational awareness tools at the platoon level. Key topics include: How close air support evolved during the surge years The relationship between ground commanders, JTACs, and pilots Risk mitigation culture in the post-9/11 wars Whether technological dominance created institutional dependency NATO’s role at the tactical edge of the fight Jointness as one of GWOT’s enduring legacies The political-military divide and the importance of clearly defined end states We also discuss what must be unlearned from GWOT as the U.S. military prepares for potential large-scale conflict in contested environments — where air superiority and persistent coverage may not be guaranteed. This episode is a candid reflection on tactical excellence, institutional adaptation, and strategic ambiguity. Ethan Brown is a former U.S. Air Force Tactical Air Control Party (TACP) specialist who served 11 years, including time embedded with the 75th Ranger Regiment as part of Air Force Special Tactics. He is the author of the JTAC trilogy, a detailed examination of close air support and air power integration during the post-9/11 wars. Visual Friendlies: Tally Target Available via Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and Casemate Publishers. Subscribe to At the Water’s Edge for weekly long-form conversations on national security, civil-military relations, and emerging strategic challenges.

    1h 4m

  7. FEB 17

    Protests, Resistance Units, and the Future of the Iranian Regime

    In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott sits down with Zolal Habibi, an activist affiliated with the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), to examine the structure, strategy, and claims of Iran’s organized opposition movement. The conversation explores recent protest activity, internet shutdowns, disputed casualty figures, and the role of so-called “resistance units” operating inside Iran. Scott presses on difficult questions: When do protests evolve into insurgency? How durable is the Islamic Republic’s security apparatus? What would political transition actually look like? And how realistic are competing visions — from secular republic to monarchy restoration? Topics include: The significance of Tehran’s bazaar strikes Nationwide protest dynamics and generational shifts Internet blackouts and information verification challenges Claims of organized “resistance units” operating inside Iran Casualty reporting and the difficulty of independent confirmation The historical designation and delisting of the MEK Armed resistance and the “right to resist” debate Competing opposition visions: republic vs. monarchy Kurdish autonomy and territorial integrity U.S. policy toward the Islamic Republic What a post-regime transition plan might entail This episode presents the perspective of an organized Iranian opposition figure. Claims regarding casualties, arrests, and internal dynamics are contested and difficult to independently verify under blackout conditions. The purpose of this discussion is analytical: to examine how resistance movements conceptualize escalation, legitimacy, and political transition. This discussion does not advocate for any particular faction. Instead, it examines how one organized resistance constituency conceptualizes escalation, legitimacy, and regime change — and where those assumptions warrant scrutiny. Future episodes will examine regime durability, fragmentation risks, and competing analytical perspectives.

    1h 8m

  8. FEB 10

    America Can Fight for a Week with Jahara "Franky" Matisek (PhD)

    Episode: Jahara “Franky” Matisek (USAF Lt Col) — Fixing America’s Broken Arsenal Guest: Lt Col Jahara “Franky” Matisek, U.S. Air Force | PhD Political Science | prolific writer on strategy, security assistance, and the defense industrial base What this episode is about America’s military can execute at breathtaking speed—but sustaining a long war is a different game. In this conversation, Lt Col Jahara “Franky” Matisek breaks down why the U.S. defense industrial base struggles to surge production, why supply chains are more opaque than most policymakers admit, and why “resilience” can’t be wished into existence with slogans and PowerPoint. Key topics Why the U.S. can be “tactically awesome” for a short fight—then hit limits in missiles, munitions, and sustainment The “black box” problem: the government often lacks visibility into tier-2 and tier-3 suppliers Why throwing money at production doesn’t automatically remove chokepoints (casings, propellant, and other bottlenecks) The mine-to-missile reality: minerals, refining, machining, certification, and how China shows up at multiple points in the chain The tradeoff between efficiency (markets) and resilience (surge capacity)—and why the market won’t fund resilience “as a charity” Continuing resolutions, short funding cycles, and how uncertainty drives small suppliers out of the defense ecosystem The workforce constraint: skilled trades, machinists, and why you “can’t Zoom-call the bolts into a submarine” Strategic infrastructure beyond the obvious: power grids, pipelines, and data centers as a bedrock of modern command-and-control Why “digital warfighting” runs into practical limits: electricity, cooling, transformers, copper, and long lead times Notable quotes “We can do great war stuff for about a week. Anything longer than that gets really hard.” “Resilience isn’t something the market provides out of charity.” “You can’t Zoom-call the nuts and bolts of making a submarine.” “The defense industrial base is a black box—and that’s terrifying in a crisis.” Referenced reading Foreign Policy: “How to Fix America’s Broken Arsenal” (Matisek and co-authors) Additional related work discussed: resilience and industrial base commentary (FPRI) Follow / connect Scott Kelly — Host, At the Water’s Edge Lt Col Jahara “Franky” Matisek — USAF, scholar-practitioner on strategy and the defense industrial base Call to action If this episode made you rethink “deterrence,” share it with one person in defense tech, infrastructure, or policy—and drop a comment with the single chokepoint you think would break first in a major-power conflict.

    59 min
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Ratings & Reviews

4.9
out of 5
14 Ratings

About

The At the Water’s Edge Podcast explores national security and geopolitics from an insider’s perspective, looking at how national power, industrial policy, diplomacy, and military might shape our world and America’s place in it.

Information

  • Creator
    WRKdefined Podcast Network
  • Years Active
    2023 - 2026
  • Episodes
    44
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © All rights reserved by WRKdefined
  • Show Website
    At the Water's Edge

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