Super-Macro Management

Super-Macro Management
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SuperMacro provides a summary of the most critical economic and financial news from the major regions, with insights into the impact on markets and policy. We take a detailed look at the fundamentals once a week, highlighting opportunities for tactical trading strategies and longer-term investments.

  1. 1d ago

    Sovereign Bonds Can't Catch a Break

    The data all pointed one way last week. Payrolls missed, CPI and PPI came in benign, retail sales underwhelmed across every single aggregate. Sovereign bonds caught a bid, then sold off almost immediately. When bonds cannot rally on their own good news, the problem is not the data. The US interest bill has now overtaken the defence bill. Niall Ferguson's law says any great power that spends more on debt servicing than defence risks ceasing to be a great power, and the US is running a deficit of 5.5 to 6% at full employment with unemployment at 4.1%. There is no reform coming, in any G7 country, because nobody is going to vote for it. Elvis sits down with veteran macro trader Jonny Matthews, 25 years of institutional experience at Brevan Howard and Citigroup, to work through why the long end sold off into weak data, what the deficit does when the economy finally turns, and why he is still short treasuries. In this episode: Why sovereign bonds sold off into a weak payrolls print, benign inflation and soft retail sales G7 debt to GDP ratios, and the US on track to pass Italy from over 120% Japan cutting 220% to 200% with no reform at all, just nominal GDP running above the interest rate A 6% deficit at full employment, and where it goes in even a mild recession Ferguson's law: the interest bill has passed the defence bill, and neither one is coming down AI capex arriving in the bond market as a new and very large competing issuer Ten years of long dated treasury total return below zero while CPI rose 40 to 45%, and what that does to the 60/40 Why TIPS at 2.4% on the ten year and 3% on the thirty look like the better bet 4.5% on the ten year and 5% on the thirty now acting as a floor rather than a ceiling Jonny has spent 25 years trading macro at the highest institutional level. This is not retail speculation or headline chasing. It is rigorous, independent analysis from someone who has sat at the table. New to SuperMacro? Get 30 days of our Daily Note entirely free at www.super-macro.com Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  2. Aug 12

    The Yen Intervention Is Smoke and Mirrors

    US payrolls fell by 23,000 in the latest print, with over 100,000 of downward revisions to the previous two months — and yet Treasury yields climbed. When bond markets rally on bad news and then give it all back, something deeper is going on.   Meanwhile, the much-publicised coordinated intervention to support the Japanese yen — complete with a conveniently photographed "buy yen" note on the Treasury Secretary's desk — may be far less than it appears. And with Japanese government bond yields hitting two-decade highs, the pressure on Tokyo is building fast.   Elvis sits down with veteran macro trader Jonny Matthews — 25 years of institutional experience at Brevan Howard and Citigroup — to unpack why the Treasury market shrugged off a weak jobs report, what the US–Japan yen intervention is really designed to achieve, and why the long end of the bond market in both countries is flashing red.   In this episode: Why Treasury yields rose despite a negative payrolls print — and what a shrinking labour supply means for wages and inflation The unemployment rate at a 13-month low of 4.1% even as jobs are lost — the retiring boomers and net-zero migration story the headlines miss Bessent's "whatever it takes" moment: the leaked to-do list, the Exchange Stabilization Fund, and why this intervention is more theatre than firepower   Japan's high nominal GDP playbook — inflating away a 200% debt-to-GDP ratio while JGB yields hit two-decade highs — and the 1992 sterling lesson for anyone defending a currency   Why 4.5% on the 10-year and 5% on the 30-year now look like floors rather than ceilings — and the asymmetric risk around this week's CPI print ahead of September's Fed meeting   Jonny has spent 25 years trading macro at the highest institutional level. This is not retail speculation or headline chasing. It is rigorous, independent analysis from someone who has sat at the table.   New to SuperMacro? Get 30 days of our Daily Note entirely free at www.super-macro.com Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  3. 04/11/2025

    Navigating the Financial Storm: Insights on the S&P and Economic Data

    Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  4. 03/14/2025

    Tariffs and Their Impact: A Deep Dive into Economic Uncertainty

    In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews delve into the pressing topic of tariffs and their impact on the economy. Jonny, who has been skeptical about the likelihood of a recession, discusses how current tariff policies are slowing growth, increasing prices, and disrupting global supply chains. The episode highlights the significant decline in business and consumer confidence, with companies putting hiring and capital expenditure plans on hold due to uncertainty. Jonny also emphasises the potential negative effects on household wealth and consumer spending if the stock market continues to decline. The conversation reveals that the real concern for CEOs may not just be the tariffs themselves but the unpredictability and abrupt changes in policy that could disrupt long-term business strategies. Tune in for an insightful analysis of the current economic climate and what it means for the future. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  5. 01/22/2025

    Navigating 2025: Economic Insights and Market Predictions | Episode 11

    In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews return after a brief hiatus to discuss economic projections for 2025. Johnny emphasises his confidence in the economy for the first half of the year, highlighting strong household and corporate balance sheets, alongside a robust job market. The conversation also touches on Johnny's successful year managing a portfolio for Fortum Capital, crediting his research and content creation for the impressive returns. Listeners are invited to subscribe to the Super Macro newsletter for insights and analysis, with a special offer for a free one-month trial. The episode sets the stage for future discussions, including the potential impact of political changes on the economy. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  6. 10/10/2024

    The Resilient US Economy: Consumer Spending and Corporate Profits | Episode 10

    In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews dive into the recent economic performance of Ireland, discussing the optimistic outlook for the third quarter. Jonny highlights strong consumer spending trends, projecting a 3% growth rate and an overall GDP growth of around 2.5% for the quarter. They address previous concerns about consumers depleting their savings, revealing new revisions to national accounts that indicate higher household income than previously estimated. Jonny emphasizes the importance of these insights for understanding the current economic landscape and future expectations. Tune in for an in-depth analysis of these trends and their implications for the economy. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    The Resilient US Economy: Consumer Spending and Corporate Profits | Episode 10

  7. 09/26/2024

    Defending the No-Recession Stance - Episode 9

    In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews delve into the current market dynamics and the prevailing economic outlook. Jonny stands firm in his belief that a recession is unlikely, despite increasing skepticism in the market. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining a non-consensus view to capitalize on investment opportunities. The discussion shifts to the Federal Reserve's recent actions, particularly focusing on the dovish stance reflected in the changes in the two-year yield around FOMC meetings since March 2022. Jonny presents a detailed analysis of the trends in interest rates, illustrating how the Fed's projections and actions have influenced market reactions. Tune in for valuable insights on navigating the complexities of today's economic landscape. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    Defending the No-Recession Stance - Episode 9

  8. 09/16/2024

    What Recession?!! - Episode 8

    In this episode of the Super Macro Podcast, hosts Jonny Matthews and Elvis delve into the current market dynamics and the looming recession narrative. Jonny shares insights on the disparity between market pricing and economic realities, particularly focusing on the rates market. He highlights that the market is pricing in approximately 275 basis points of cuts over the next 15 months, which he argues signals a deep recession—a scenario he believes is unlikely based on current economic conditions. The discussion emphasizes the differences between today's corporate sector and that of the past, noting that companies are now less leveraged than during the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Jonny maintains his conviction that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates as drastically as the market anticipates, presenting a contrarian viewpoint that challenges prevailing market sentiments. Tune in for an engaging analysis that questions the market's recession pricing and explores the broader economic context. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    What Recession?!! - Episode 8
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About

SuperMacro provides a summary of the most critical economic and financial news from the major regions, with insights into the impact on markets and policy. We take a detailed look at the fundamentals once a week, highlighting opportunities for tactical trading strategies and longer-term investments.

Information

  • Creator
    Super-Macro Management
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    15
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Super-Macro Management
  • Show Website
    Super-Macro Management

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