The Energy Show

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A guide to all things uranium with Brandon Munro and other uranium experts.

JAN 20

Uranium Supply Squeeze Moves from Theoretical to Observable Reality

Recording date: 19th January 2025 The uranium market's long-anticipated supply crisis has moved from theoretical projection to measurable reality, according to uranium analyst Chris Frostad. Multiple converging indicators suggest the structural shortage is actively unfolding, creating what may be a decade-long investment opportunity for patient capital positioned in quality assets. The most compelling evidence appears in market behavior that defies typical commodity patterns. Uranium producers have doubled in value over the past six to eight months while spot prices remained relatively flat—a reversal of normal dynamics where equity prices follow commodity movements. This divergence indicates institutional investors are positioning ahead of price increases rather than waiting for spot market confirmation, recognizing uranium's unique contract-driven structure where long-term pricing operates independently from spot markets. Beyond equity performance, utility procurement behavior confirms tightening conditions. Long-term uranium contract prices have climbed from $80 to $86 after 18 months of stagnation, demonstrating that reactor operators acknowledge supply constraints in their multi-year fuel planning. Japan's first uranium delivery in 11 years further signals depleting inventory buffers that historically absorbed supply-demand imbalances. The fundamental problem centers on supply replacement. Global production of approximately 140 million pounds annually falls short of consumption, with no credible near-term additions expected for five to seven years minimum. Forward supply projections rely on existing mines (experiencing gradual depletion), potential restarts, and conceptual projects—none providing certainty. Development timelines extend far beyond sponsor projections due to permitting requirements, capital constraints, and regulatory processes. Frostad's investment framework prioritizes "durability" across three tiers. Producers offer foundational exposure to scarce operating assets despite concentrated capital flows. Developers with advanced permitting, secured financing, experienced management, and realistic timelines represent the next opportunity tier, having avoided the appreciation already captured by producers. Select exploration companies utilizing partner capital, acquiring former producing assets, or operating in favorable jurisdictions provide higher-risk exposure—though investors must avoid promotional companies spending heavily on marketing rather than technical advancement. This represents a structural play requiring years to unfold, not a short-term trade. The backward nature of uranium markets means waiting for spot price confirmation risks missing equity repricing that occurs ahead of commodity movements. Learn more: https://cruxinvestor.com

34 min
JAN 14

Uranium Market Realities: Understanding Supply-Demand Dynamics Beyond the Headlines

Recording date: 12th January 2026 As nuclear energy gains renewed attention amid the global energy transition, uranium investors must grasp fundamental market dynamics that differ dramatically from other commodities. Chris Frostad, a uranium exploration veteran, recently outlined critical misconceptions that can lead investors astray in this complex sector. Unlike oil or gas, uranium demand is remarkably stable and price-inelastic. Nuclear reactors require precisely scheduled fuel loads regardless of market prices, with utilities committed to 30-40 year operational cycles. Even at $200 per pound, reactors consume the same amount of uranium because fuel costs represent a small fraction of overall nuclear power generation expenses. Headlines about AI data centers and small modular reactors generate excitement, but these developments take years to translate into actual demand since reactor construction timelines are measured in decades. The supply side presents even greater challenges. Uranium mines cannot simply increase output when prices rise—they operate at optimized throughput levels based on ore grades and milling capacity. Restarting idle facilities requires years of plant reoptimisation, equipment upgrades, regulatory reapproval, and rehiring specialized personnel who have moved to other careers. New discoveries face 12-14 year timelines from exploration to production, involving sequential permitting, environmental studies, and financing hurdles that cannot be accelerated. Industry supply forecasts often mislead investors by citing theoretical capacity rather than realistic production. Actual output historically runs at 70-75% of stated capacity, creating a significantly larger supply deficit than commonly understood. Meanwhile, accessible uranium inventory is far smaller than headline figures suggest—strategic stockpiles held by China and India aren't available to Western utilities, and much material remains tied up in fuel conversion cycles. Geopolitical fragmentation compounds these constraints, with Russian supply becoming questionable and Chinese-controlled material unavailable to Western markets. For investors, this means carefully differentiating between companies with proven resources in established jurisdictions like Saskatchewan's Athabasca Basin versus speculative plays unlikely to reach production within relevant timeframes. Success requires understanding that high prices cannot override physics or compress development timelines. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

55 min
JAN 14

Why Uranium's Next Move Will Be a Permanent Reset, Not a Temporary Cycle

Recording date: 6th January 2026 As uranium investors navigate 2026, Chris Frostad, CEO of Purepoint Uranium, outlined a market characterized by persistent uncertainty but increasingly favorable fundamentals for a sustained price increase. Price predictions from major financial institutions range widely from $80 to $150, reflecting what Frostad describes as "handwaving" rather than definitive analysis. This cautious approach marks a shift from the "enthusiastic overpromise" of 2019-2023, when many analysts expected dramatic price spikes that failed to materialize as the industry underestimated both accumulated inventory levels and utility patience. The critical unknown remains global uranium inventory. While estimates suggest 300 million pounds exist, much is effectively immobile—locked in Chinese and Indian strategic reserves or tied up in the fuel cycle. Utilities maintain two-to-three-year working inventories, explaining their measured approach to contracting despite production falling below consumption. Frostad emphasized uranium's unique supply-side constraints. Unlike other commodities, production cannot quickly respond to higher prices due to technical complexity, regulatory requirements, and multi-year development timelines. Mills optimize chemistry for specific ores and cannot simply increase throughput. Even established producers like Cameco and Kazatomprom struggle to meet production targets. For investors, Frostad recommends focusing on company fundamentals—management quality, jurisdiction, and development stage—rather than attempting to time the uranium price spike. He cautions against overweighting small modular reactor announcements as "white noise," suggesting instead that investors monitor term contract announcements for concrete market signals. Looking ahead, Frostad anticipates meaningful market movement within 6-18 months as utility buffers deplete. Critically, he expects a price "reset" to a new, higher plateau rather than a traditional commodity cycle, reflecting structural supply challenges that will require sustained elevated pricing to incentivize new production. The message for 2026: focus on quality companies with sound fundamentals while maintaining patience for the anticipated price reset in late 2026 or early 2027. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

37 min
12/08/2025

The Hard Truth About Funding and Failure in Uranium Exploration | The Energy Show

Recording date: 5th December 2025 Chris Frostad, CEO of Purepoint Uranium, delivers a sobering assessment of financing realities in the uranium exploration sector, systematically dismantling hopes for alternative capital sources while identifying critical markers that separate sustainable businesses from likely casualties. Despite uranium's strategic importance, Frostad states sovereign wealth fund interest in exploration remains "near zero" due to incompatible risk management frameworks. Family offices demand board positions and operational oversight that conflict with how most exploration CEOs operate. Resource capital funds, utilities, and major mining companies seek later-stage opportunities, while 90% of TSX and TSXV-listed resource companies fail to meet scale requirements for ETFs and commodity trusts. Current financing mechanisms actively destroy value. Convertible debt represents what Frostad calls a "death nail" for revenue-less explorers, while warrant-heavy deals predictably erode share prices as investors dump stock while retaining warrants as free options. The Canadian junior mining ecosystem extracts approximately $1 million annually per company just for regulatory compliance, draining capital from exploration activities. Frostad emphasizes two fundamental questions most companies cannot answer: "What is your business model? And how are you going to fund this thing for the next 2-4 years?" Nine out of 10 companies fail this basic test, reflecting unseriousness about operating actual businesses versus extracting salaries and fees. Drawing on technology venture capital experience, Frostad notes that sector imposed discipline: "When it wasn't working the machine stopped and you got slapped for it." Exploration's removal of these mechanisms created what he describes as a money-eating machine occasionally producing deposits. Recent industry gatherings revealed growing stress among juniors, with transactions reflecting desperation rather than strategy. Meanwhile, well-positioned companies with clear business models, strategic partnerships, and capital efficiency secure larger budgets and advance projects. Market bifurcation is accelerating, concentrating capital among the approximately 20% of companies operating with proper discipline while weaker players face increasing pressure and likely consolidation. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

48 min
10/30/2025

Exploration Mining Finance Laid Bare: Dilution, Flow-Through & The Real Challenges

Recording date: 28th October 2025 Junior exploration companies operate under fundamentally different economics than traditional businesses, creating persistent challenges that investors must understand before allocating capital to the sector. Chris Frostad, CEO of Purepoint Uranium, recently provided candid insights into the financial engineering required to keep exploration companies viable and the structural problems plaguing the industry. The core challenge facing exploration companies is their inability to provide certainty or timelines for discovery. As Frostad explained: "I can't time out to discovery. I can't give you a timeline to where we're going to get and how we're going to get there. It's very choppy what we do." This uncertainty makes attracting investment capital exceptionally difficult, forcing companies to rely on commodity price narratives to drive share price movement and enable capital raises. Canadian flow-through share programs represent a critical but problematic financing mechanism. These programs allow exploration companies to renounce tax-deductible expenses to shareholders, who receive immediate personal deductions. While this effectively reduces an investor's cost basis by their marginal tax rate, making a $1.00 share cost just $0.50 for someone in a 50% tax bracket, it creates significant problems. These shares are typically held by weak hands primarily seeking tax benefits rather than believing in the investment, inevitably returning to market as selling pressure. Recent regulatory changes have exacerbated these issues. The "life exemption" eliminates hold periods on certain share sales, allowing buyers who acquire discounted shares with warrants attached to immediately dump shares while retaining free warrants. Frostad warned: "You don't think they're going to sell that share tomorrow and just sit on a free warrant and that's what happens."Progressive dilution compounds these challenges. Companies starting with 30-40 million shares often reach 500 million after years of fundraising, paradoxically making newer stories more investable than mature explorers despite less completed work. For investors, success requires evaluating these ventures as high-risk startups rather than traditional businesses, with diligence focused on management quality, capital structure evolution, and whether companies can deploy capital effectively before financing mechanics work against them. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

48 min
10/23/2025

The 3 Catalysts Still Missing Before the Next Big Uranium Rally

Recording date: 13th October 2025 The Australian uranium market continues to lag North America significantly, hampered by liquidity concerns and political opposition to nuclear power that excludes uranium from critical mineral discussions with the United States. While Australian stocks have seen recent gains, they lack the conviction driving hundreds of millions in capital raises across North American uranium companies through convertible notes and equity offerings. Guy Keller's nuclear investment fund has undergone a strategic transformation, shifting approximately 50% of holdings into nuclear innovation investments. This move, which began modestly in May 2024 and accelerated in recent months, captures billions flowing into North American nuclear technology companies driven by data center demand for baseload electricity. These positions remove direct uranium commodity price risk but require 5-10 times more active management due to extreme volatility, with some stocks showing implied volatility exceeding 120%. Rather than traditional valuation metrics, the investment thesis centers on news flow, government announcements and the conversion of memoranda of understanding into actual capital deployment. A fundamental market shift is emerging through technology companies like Microsoft, Meta and Google becoming price-insensitive nuclear customers. These firms are signing 20-year power purchase agreements at premium rates utilities haven't seen in decades, creating unprecedented demand certainty. However, this hasn't translated to fuel supply security, with utilities still operating on outdated "just-in-time" procurement models. The expectation is that sophisticated tech buyers will eventually bypass utilities to secure uranium, conversion and enrichment supplies directly. Current uranium prices around $80 per pound reflect positioning rather than actual capital deployment. Three critical catalysts remain unfunded: utility procurement urgency, full US government funding commitments and tech company capital moving beyond initial agreements. Forward curves indicate $96 per pound by December 2030, suggesting significant upside potential once these catalysts materialise despite persistent production execution challenges across nearly every brownfield restart and greenfield development project. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

40 min
10/22/2025

Uranium Market Approaching Inflection Point as Supply Problems Outpace Solutions

Recording date: 20th October 2025 In a comprehensive analysis of uranium market fundamentals, Purepoint Uranium CEO Chris Frostad has clarified widespread misconceptions about supply and demand forecasts that have misled investors in recent years. His white paper examining World Nuclear Association (WNA) data reveals that industry reports are planning tools for utilities and governments, not predictive investment models. Frostad emphasizes a critical distinction often overlooked by investors: WNA and Red Book reports show "operable" reactor capacity rather than actual operating production. As he explains, "These documents are not written for you and me. They are amazing in terms of the depth of the data they've got on a reactor-by-reactor basis and on a mine-by-mine basis." Historical production typically achieves only 70-84% of nameplate capacity, with an additional 12-24 month fuel cycle lag creating further misalignment between reported figures and market reality. When asked whether uranium represents a momentum play or structural deficit investment, Frostad was unequivocal: "Oh, it's a structural deficit play." The market is currently experiencing a genuine deficit masked by inventory buffers and secondary supplies that are nearing depletion. Japan's first uranium order in 11 years signals that these buffers are reaching their limits. The contracting situation underscores market tightness, with 70% of post-2027 demand remaining uncontracted—the highest level in 30 years. Supply-side challenges persist as "there's certainly a lot more things going wrong on the supply side than going right," according to Frostad, with projects facing permitting delays, financing hurdles, and operational disruptions. Unlike the speculative 2007 uranium bull market focused on "pounds in the ground," current demand is fundamentally different. As Frostad notes, "the price of uranium is not the issue whatsoever. It's the access." Policy-backed energy security concerns and decarbonization commitments drive this cycle, with political support strengthening globally across previously anti-nuclear jurisdictions. For investors, the key insight is recognizing that multiple indicators—depleting inventories, reduced enrichment underfeeding capacity, and persistent supply disruptions—point to an approaching inflection point that will likely trigger rapid price discovery in this small, inelastic market. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

43 min
10/13/2025

From Microsoft to SMRs: The New Faces Powering Nuclear’s Global Revival with Dustin Garrow

Recording date: 10th October 2025 The uranium and nuclear fuel industry is approaching a critical inflection point as demand forecasts accelerate while supply development remains hesitant and conditional. Following the 2025 World Nuclear Association conference in London, industry veteran Dustin Garrow outlined an increasingly urgent supply-demand imbalance that threatens to constrain nuclear capacity growth. Global uranium requirements could reach 530 million pounds annually by 2040 under optimistic scenarios, nearly triple current consumption levels of 160-170 million pounds. In the United States alone, uncovered utility requirements exceed 11 million pounds annually for 2028-2029, escalating to over 20 million pounds by 2030. These figures exclude emerging demand from reactor restarts, new builds, and data center operators planning transitions to small modular reactors. Despite these projections, uranium producers remain cautious about capacity expansion without firm long-term contracts. Recent term contracting activity ranges from $80-90 per pound, which industry executives argue falls short of triple-digit pricing necessary to justify greenfield project development. Major producers including Kazatomprom, Cameco, and Orano have shown limited market activity, with suppliers preferring to wait for confirmed demand rather than risk speculative production. The industry faces a fundamental disconnect: capital markets are enthusiastically funding uranium companies, with recent raises exceeding $700 million, while utilities maintain conservative contracting approaches rooted in post-Fukushima experience with abundant supply. Many fuel managers historically preferred contracting only with operating facilities rather than unproven greenfield projects. Data center operators represent a potential disruptor, possessing capital flexibility and problem-solving focus that contrasts sharply with traditional utility cost-minimization strategies. Technology companies could bypass conventional procurement by directly financing fuel cycle infrastructure, including enrichment facilities and uranium production, fundamentally altering market dynamics.The next 12-18 months of utility contracting and producer financing decisions will likely determine whether the nuclear industry can meet ambitious capacity targets or faces supply constraints driving significant price appreciation and deployment delays. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

57 min

A guide to all things uranium with Brandon Munro and other uranium experts.

Creator

Crux Investor
Years Active

2024 - 2026
Episodes

99
Rating

Clean
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