GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Executive Summary: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated as President Trump deployed a U.S. Navy strike group, including an aircraft carrier, toward Iran amid renewed threats linked to Tehran’s nuclear program and brutal crackdown on protesters that has killed thousands since December 2025, driving oil prices higher with WTI settling above $60 per barrel over the weekend despite earlier bearish inventory data, as markets priced in potential supply disruptions from OPEC’s fourth-largest producer whose exports flow heavily to China via the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. control over Venezuela’s oil exports has intercepted cargoes previously dedicated to servicing $10-15 billion in oil-backed debt to China, risking a restructuring showdown that could subordinate Beijing’s claims, complicate global debt workouts under frameworks like the Common Framework, and hinder Venezuela’s post-default recovery while the U.S. pursues quick fixes with companies like Chevron to revive output through infrastructure repairs and naphtha shipments under a $2 billion framework allowing limited sales. Global energy markets face shifting dynamics as Europe anticipates record LNG imports exceeding 185 billion cubic meters in 2026 to replace phased-out Russian supplies and replenish storage, China advances yuan-denominated LNG futures to challenge dollar benchmarks and hedge volatility, while U.S. natural gas prices surged dramatically on extreme winter weather forecasts boosting heating demand, and broader trends show rising gas demand, AI-driven power needs straining grids, and efforts to diversify supplies amid sanctions on Russian and Iranian shadow fleets. See the full stories below—plus paid subscribers get our take, detailed analysis and predictions WHY THIS MATTERS NOW President Trump’s deployment of a U.S. Navy carrier strike group toward Iran, combined with fresh sanctions on Tehran’s shadow fleet amid its crackdown that has killed thousands since December 2025, shifts control over roughly 1-2 million barrels per day of Iranian oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, primarily to China, and drives sustained upward pressure on global oil prices, forcing importers and refiners to reprice risk and reallocate capital over the next 3-6 months. A strike window of Saturday into Sunday seems reasonable. Trump seems to time his Iran strikes when the oil and gas markets are closed. Market Snapshot as of publication time noted above (not to be relied on for trading purposes): Detailed News Summary: US, Kazakhstan energy ministries discuss cooperation https://boereport.com/2026/01/23/us-kazakhstan-energy-ministries-discuss-cooperation/ Kazakhstan’s energy ministry engaged in discussions with the U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. embassy to enhance cooperation in the oil and gas sector, focusing on Kazakhstan’s strategic priorities. As a major producer contributing around 2% of global daily oil supply, Kazakhstan has faced recent production challenges due to incidents at the Tengiz field and drone strikes on infrastructure serving the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. U.S. companies like Chevron and ExxonMobil hold significant stakes in Kazakhstan’s oilfields, underscoring the importance of these ties. Washington has deepened relations with Kazakhstan, including President Trump’s invitation to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev for international initiatives. How much does Venezuela owe China, and why is oil involved? https://boereport.com/2026/01/22/how-much-does-venezuela-owe-china-and-why-is-oil-involved/ Venezuela’s debt to China is estimated between $10 billion and $15 billion, with data remaining patchy due to the lack of comprehensive statistics since 2017 amid U.S. sanctions and a sovereign default. Most debts are oil-backed loans from China Development Bank, where proceeds from oil exports to China serviced the obligations through Beijing-controlled accounts, even as other creditors were unpaid. The U.S. takeover of Venezuelan oil exports has rerouted barrels previously used for debt repayment, disrupting this mechanism. China granted a grace period in 2019, allowing crude cargoes to compensate for payments, but the future of repayments remains uncertain under U.S. control. US control of Venezuela oil risks debt restructuring showdown with China https://boereport.com/2026/01/22/us-control-of-venezuela-oil-risks-debt-restructuring-showdown-with-china/ The U.S. takeover of Venezuela’s oil exports has intercepted cargoes meant for repaying about $10-15 billion in Chinese debt, potentially complicating Venezuela’s post-2017 default restructuring and China’s cooperation in other global debt deals. Venezuela serviced Chinese loans via oil-backed arrangements, with proceeds flowing into Beijing-controlled accounts, bypassing sanctions affecting other creditors. The U.S. now directs revenues to a Qatar-based account, unlikely to service China, which could subordinate legacy creditors and challenge fair treatment in restructurings. If pushed for writedowns, China might withhold cooperation in future Common Framework workouts, prolonging Venezuela’s recovery and limiting repayments. Oil prices rebound after Trump comments on ‘armada’ moving to Iran spur supply worries https://boereport.com/2026/01/23/oil-prices-rebound-after-trump-comments-on-armada-moving-to-iran-spur-supply-worries/ Oil prices rebounded following President Trump’s renewed threats against Iran, raising fears of military action disrupting supplies from the major Middle Eastern producer. Brent crude futures rose 43 cents to $64.49 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased 42 cents to $59.78 per barrel, recovering from a 2% drop the previous day. Trump’s comments about a U.S. armada heading toward Iran, coupled with warships including an aircraft carrier en route, heightened tensions amid Iran’s role as OPEC’s fourth-largest producer and key exporter to China. Prices had earlier climbed on Greenland invasion threats but softened on bearish U.S. inventory data showing a 3.6 million barrel build. ‘It’s the sovereignty of the country’: Guinea-Bissau says US vaccine study suspended https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/23/guinea-bissau-hepatitis-b-vaccine-study Guinea-Bissau’s health minister suspended a controversial US-funded hepatitis B vaccine study led by Danish researchers, citing ethical concerns and poor scientific review after a coup changed leadership. The trial planned to vaccinate 7,000 infants at birth while withholding for another 7,000 until six weeks, despite high hepatitis B prevalence putting unvaccinated newborns at risk. Africa CDC will review the study, emphasizing Guinea-Bissau’s sovereignty amid U.S. HHS insistence that it proceed. Ethical lapses include initial approval by a local committee without noting withholding, no approvals from Danish or U.S. boards, violating Helsinki declaration, in a resource-poor nation with limited healthcare. AI Compute Data Centres & Mining Operations Have Shifted The Power Demand Landscape https://www.dobenergy.com/news/headlines/2026/01/23/ai-compute-data-centres-mining-operations-have-shi Global power demand is surging exponentially, with data centers projected to grow 16% in 2025 and double by 2030, mirroring trends in Canada and Alberta amid grid constraints and regulatory shifts. Radiant Ridge Energy offers hybrid solutions integrating natural gas, renewables, and storage for reliable power, with modular systems scalable to 100MW+ using 2.5 million cubic feet of natural gas daily for a 10MW site. Benefits include 24/7 availability, waste gas reuse, lower costs, and methane mitigation via instrument air, generating emission credits. Key considerations for partnerships involve fixed pricing, in-house expertise, multi-technology designs, and regulatory compliance across provinces. Trump Orders U.S. Navy Strike Group Toward Iran as Nuclear Tensions Escalate http://worlddefencenews.blogspot.com/2026/01/trump-orders-us-navy-strike-group.html President Trump directed a U.S. Navy strike group toward Iran amid escalating nuclear tensions, renewing warnings against restarting Tehran’s program or harming protesters. The deployment includes warships, an aircraft carrier, and guided missile destroyers, signaling heightened readiness for potential military action. Iran, OPEC’s fourth-largest producer, exports significantly to China, raising supply disruption concerns. This move follows Trump’s comments on an armada approaching Iran, amid anti-government unrest blamed on U.S. influence by Tehran. Geopolitical risks could impact global energy infrastructure, with analysts monitoring for further escalations affecting oil markets and regional stability. EU to Suspend Planned Counter-Tariffs on €93 Billion of US Goods https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-23/eu-to-suspend-planned-counter-tariffs-on-93-billion-of-us-goods The European Union plans to suspend retaliatory tariffs on €93 billion of US goods for another six months after President Trump backed down from threats to impose levies on EU countries opposing his Greenland annexation push. The countermeasures, including tariffs on Boeing aircraft, US-made cars, and bourbon, were set to expire on February 7. The European Commission will propose extending the suspension, handling trade for the bloc. This follows Trump’s decision to retreat from military action on Greenland, easing tensions and allowing provisional implementation of the deal once ratified by South American nations involved. A Record LNG Year Looms for Europe as Markets Rebalance https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/A-Record-LNG-Year-Looms-for-Europe-as-Markets-Rebalance.html Europe anticipates record LNG imports exceeding 185 billion cubic meters
