The LOWDOWN

Joshua Patten

4.9 (11)
DAILY NEWS
UPDATED DAILY

The LOWDOWN is an independent open-source intelligence (OSINT situational awareness report) covering competition, conflict, and coercive activity involving Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and the Western Hemisphere. lowdownosint.substack.com

1D AGO

Deadline Diplomacy and Shifting Battle Rhythms: Iran on the Brink, Ukraine Stalls, and China Shapes the Field

In the Middle East, President Trump’s 10-day decision window on Iran coincides with a visible U.S. force surge, carrier deployments, tanker and ISR flows into theater, and allied friction over basing access. Tehran rejects sweeping nuclear demands while hardening facilities and signaling in the Strait of Hormuz—raising escalation risks in a critical global energy chokepoint. In Europe, Russia-Ukraine talks stall in Geneva even as drone and missile strikes continue. Moscow deepens occupation integration while grappling with communications disruptions and force sustainability pressures. In the Indo-Pacific, China continues long-term structural shaping—testing new naval capabilities, expanding energy and industrial leverage, and benefiting from U.S. strategic narrowing toward the first island chain. Across theaters, alliance cohesion, nuclear predictability, and proliferation concerns add strategic uncertainty. Using enduring insights from Musashi’s Water Book, this episode frames today’s events as contests over rhythm and balance—where control of tempo may prove more decisive than immediate force. Thanks for reading The LOWDOWN OSINT Report! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * Asia After America: How U.S. Strategy Failed—and Ceded the Advantage to China — Zack Cooper (Foreign Affairs) — https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/asia-after-america-cooper — Cooper argues that the U.S. pivot to Asia failed due to mismatched commitments and resources, economic retrenchment, and narrowing strategy toward the first island chain, ceding broader regional influence to China. * America and China at the Edge of Ruin: A Last Chance to Step Back From the Brink — David M. Lampton and Wang Jisi (Foreign Affairs) — https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/america-and-china-edge-ruin-lampton-jisi — The authors assess that entrenched U.S.-China rivalry heightens risks of accidental escalation, including over Taiwan, but outline diplomatic and economic steps they argue could stabilize relations. * Redrawing global boundaries? The United States, China, and the viability of spheres of influence in the 21st century — William A. Galston, Ryan Hass, Patricia M. Kim, Melanie W. Sisson, Constanze Stelzenmüller, Thomas Wright, Miles Yu (Brookings Institution) — https://www.brookings.edu/articles/redrawing-global-boundaries-the-united-states-china-and-the-viability-of-spheres-of-influence-in-the-21st-century/ — A Brookings roundtable debates whether a Western Hemisphere-focused U.S. strategy strengthens competition with China or accelerates fragmentation and destabilizing spheres-of-influence dynamics. * Energy Dominance With Chinese Characteristics: Why Beijing Holds the Power in the Century Ahead — Carolyn Kissane (Foreign Affairs) — https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/energy-dominance-chinese-characteristics — Kissane argues that China’s integrated dominance in electrification technologies, supply chains, and energy systems positions it for long-term strategic advantage over a fossil fuel-focused U.S. approach. * China’s Largest Modern Naval Gun To Date Just Appeared On A Test Ship — Joseph Trevithick (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/sea/chinas-largest-modern-naval-gun-to-date-just-appeared-on-a-test-ship — Imagery shows a suspected new 155mm naval gun mounted on a Type 910 trials ship in Dalian, potentially signaling expanded PLAN littoral fire support and precision naval fires ambitions. Russia and Europe * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 18, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (Institute for the Study of War) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-18-2026/ — ISW reports on Geneva negotiations, Russian force generation measures, ongoing strikes and advances, and assessments of Kremlin mobilization and information control efforts. * Russian Occupation Update February 19, 2026 — ISW analysts (Institute for the Study of War) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-occupation-update-february-19-2026/ — ISW details Russian efforts to consolidate control in occupied Ukraine through filtration centers, youth militarization, passportization, and economic integration measures. * Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks Cut Short in Geneva — Alexandra Sharp (Foreign Policy) — https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/18/russia-ukraine-peace-talks-geneva-zelensky-putin-stalled-negotiations/?tpcc=recirc_latest062921 — The second day of U.S.-brokered Geneva peace talks ended without a follow-up date as disputes over territorial control stalled progress despite limited technical discussions. * Russia Eyes Balloon Communications System To Fill Massive Gap Left After Losing Starlink — Howard Altman (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/news-features/russia-eyes-balloon-communications-system-to-fill-massive-gap-left-after-losing-starlink — Russia is testing a high-altitude Barrage-1 communications balloon as a partial workaround after losing Starlink access, amid reported battlefield communications degradation. * Right-Sizing the Russian Threat — Thomas Graham (Council on Foreign Relations) — https://www.cfr.org/articles/right-sizing-the-russian-threat — Graham assesses that domestic economic strain and geopolitical constraints make a deliberate Russian attack on NATO unlikely in the near term, while urging Europe to pursue deterrence and dialogue. Iran and Middle East * Russian Corvette Stoikiy Joins Iranian Navy in Gulf of Oman Exercise — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/russian-corvette-stoikiy-joins-iranian-navy-in-gulf-of-oman-exercise/ — Russia’s Baltic Fleet corvette Stoikiy conducted a PASSEX with Iranian naval vessels in the Gulf of Oman on February 18 following a Bandar Abbas port call, signaling expanded naval cooperation near the Strait of Hormuz. * What Iran’s Naval Exercise With China And Russia In The Strait Of Hormuz Actually Means — Howard Altman (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/news-features/what-irans-naval-exercise-with-china-and-russia-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-actually-means — Iran is hosting the Maritime Security Belt 2026 exercise with Russia and China in the Strait of Hormuz amid U.S. force buildup, with analysts assessing limited military impact but notable political signaling. * Iran Update, February 18, 2026 — CTP-ISW (CTP-ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-18-2026/ — CTP-ISW reports on potential U.S.-Israeli military action timelines, Iranian domestic unrest, Iraqi political maneuvering, Hezbollah disarmament tensions, and fortification of Iranian nuclear facilities. * Iran Dangerously Misunderstands Its Situation: Tehran thinks it has negotiations with the United States under control. The results could be catastrophic. — Ali Hashem (Foreign Policy) — https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/18/iran-war-trump-united-states-negotiations-deal-nuclear/ — Hashem argues that Tehran is misjudging U.S. escalation thresholds and overestimating its leverage in negotiations, raising risks of unintended conflict. * How Worried Should We Be About Nuclear War? — Ravi Agrawal (Foreign Policy) — https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/18/rafael-grossi-iaea-nuclear-proliferation/ — In an interview, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warns that New START’s expiration and horizontal proliferation pressures increase uncertainty and escalation risks, including regarding Iran’s damaged but recoverable nuclear program. * US presses NATO for major reset, ending mission in Iraq — Victor Jack (POLITICO) — https://www.politico.eu/article/us-presses-nato-reset-cut-foreign-missions-allies-peacekeeping-iraq-kosovo/ — The U.S. is pressing NATO to scale back overseas missions, including ending NATO Mission Iraq and potentially reducing KFOR, to refocus on Euro-Atlantic defense. * UK blocking Trump from using RAF bases for strikes on Iran — Oliver Wright; George Grylls; Geraldine Scott (The Times) — https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/trump-chagos-islands-deal-iran-attack-british-bases-kcj0gzbr8 — The UK government is reportedly denying U.S. use of Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford for potential strikes on Iran over legal concerns, straining bilateral relations. * U.K. Denying U.S. Use Of Key Bases Would Impact Bombers’ Role In Iran Air Campaign — Howard Altman (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/news-features/u-k-denying-u-s-use-of-key-bases-would-impact-bombers-role-in-iran-air-campaign — Reported U.K. denial of Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford access would complicate sustained U.S. bomber operations against Iran by increasing sortie distances and logistical strain. * Trump says he’ll decide in “next 10 days” whether to bomb Iran — Barak Ravid (Axios) — https://www.axios.com/2026/02/19/trump-iran-strike-10-day-deal — President Trump said he will decide within ten days whether to pursue diplomacy or authorize a military strike on Iran, as the USS Ford carrier strike group deploys to the region. * Trump says world has 10 days to see if Iran deal reached — Bernd Debusmann Jr (BBC News) — https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c86yjnw4x49o — Trump stated that the U.S. will determine within about ten days whether negotiations with Iran yield a deal or lead to military action, amid regional force buildup and congressional debate. * Will America go to war with Iran? — George Grylls (The Times) — https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/will-the-us-go-to-war-with-iran-bwtdhkbnm — The U.S. is assembling significant naval and air assets, including carrier strike groups and long-range bombers, as officials consider a possible weeks-long campaign against Iran. * Timeline of U.S. Operation “Midnight Hammer” — Multiple outlets (Fox News and contemporaneous reporting) — https://en

21 min
2D AGO

U.S.–Iran Crisis Point: Dual Carrier Surge, Israeli Maximum Alert, and Imminent Strike Calculus in the Middle East

This episode provides a structured, source-grounded briefing on rapidly escalating security dynamics across multiple theaters. In the Middle East, the United States has surged two carrier strike groups — USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford — alongside additional air assets into the CENTCOM area as nuclear negotiations with Iran stall. Israel has declared a “maximum alert” posture, preparing for potential retaliation scenarios. Iran is fortifying nuclear sites at Isfahan and Pickaxe Mountain, dispersing command authorities under its IRGC “mosaic defense” doctrine, and conducting naval drills near the Strait of Hormuz while signaling missile deterrence. Indirect talks in Geneva produced discussion of “guiding principles,” but major gaps remain over uranium enrichment and missile limitations. Simultaneously, the U.S. is withdrawing its remaining ~1,000 troops from Syria, closing al-Tanf and other positions while shifting counter-ISIS coordination toward Damascus as the SDF integrates into the Syrian army structure. In Europe, Russia conducted a large-scale strike package of drones and missiles against Ukraine while threatening to use its navy to protect its sanctioned “shadow fleet.” Western intelligence reporting indicates Russian services are leveraging former Wagner-linked networks for sabotage recruitment across NATO territory. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. alleges China conducted a covert 2020 nuclear test at Lop Nur. Beijing has unveiled a compact high-power microwave system reportedly capable of targeting LEO satellite constellations. Taiwan arms sales remain under active discussion between Washington and Beijing, while the U.S. and Philippines reaffirm commitment to Taiwan Strait stability. Elsewhere, approximately 100 U.S. troops deployed to Nigeria in an advisory role against ISIS-linked militants. The U.S. Army is pursuing autonomous CBRN decontamination systems. Turkey revealed its second and third Kaan fighter prototypes. Legal and technological competition continues in the cyber and space domains, including concerns over GPS vulnerability and resilience. This briefing consolidates the operational posture, force movements, political signaling, and emerging capability developments shaping the current security environment. Thanks for reading The LOWDOWN OSINT Report! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * U.S. Accuses China of Conducting Covert Nuclear Test in 2020 — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/u-s-accuses-china-of-conducting-covert-nuclear-test-in-2020/ — U.S. officials alleged that China conducted a covert nuclear explosive test at Lop Nur on June 22, 2020, citing seismic data and announcing preparations for potential U.S. low-yield testing in response. * Chinese military urged to overhaul English teaching to improve language skills — William Zheng (South China Morning Post) — https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3343799/chinese-military-urged-overhaul-english-teaching-improve-language-skills — PLA Air Force academics called for reforms to military English education, citing inadequate speaking and operational communication skills amid expanding international engagement. * The Legal Struggle for China’s Maritime Power: Strategy, Sovereignty, and Enforcement (Volume 1, Issue 3 Full Issue) — CMSI Quarterly Review Editorial Compilation (China Maritime Studies Institute) — https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-quarterly-review/vol1/iss3/ — The CMSI review compiles translated PRC writings outlining how China uses domestic law, UNCLOS interpretations, and maritime enforcement to advance sovereignty claims in disputed waters. * China Develops Compact ‘Starlink-Killer’ Microwave Weapon — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/china-develops-compact-starlink-killer-microwave-weapon/ — Chinese researchers reportedly developed a compact high-power microwave system capable of disabling satellite constellations such as Starlink without creating orbital debris. * Trump Says He’ll Soon Make Decision on Weapon Sales to Taiwan — Skylar Woodhouse (Bloomberg) — https://archive.ph/Gq6mx — President Donald Trump said he is discussing additional U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan with Chinese President Xi Jinping and will make a decision soon ahead of an April leaders’ meeting. * Philippines-US dialogue reaffirms commitment to Taiwan Strait stability — Charlotte Lee (Taiwan News) — https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/6303878 — U.S. and Philippine officials reaffirmed commitment to Taiwan Strait stability and condemned China’s actions in the South China Sea during a bilateral strategic dialogue in Manila. * Korean Peninsula Update, February 17, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War / China-Russia-Global Dynamics Team (ISW-CDOT) — https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/korean-peninsula-update-february-17-2026/ — South Korea’s NIS assessed Kim Jong Un may be preparing his daughter Kim Ju Ae for succession while North Korean forces continue supporting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Russia and Europe * Ukraine’s War of Endurance: The Fight for Advantage in the Conflict’s Fifth Year — Michael Kofman (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) — https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/ukraines-war-endurance — Michael Kofman assesses that the Russia-Ukraine war has become a protracted conflict of attrition in which both sides rely on drone warfare, infrastructure strikes, and manpower sustainability. * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 17, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-17-2026/ — ISW reports Russia launched a 425-drone-and-missile strike against Ukrainian infrastructure while continuing marginal advances along multiple axes. * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 16, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-16-2026/ — ISW assesses Russia will maintain maximalist war aims in Geneva talks while expanding drone units and sustaining offensive operations across eastern Ukraine. * Russia threatens to deploy navy to protect vessels from ‘western piracy’ — Pjotr Sauer (The Guardian) — https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/17/russia-threatens-to-deploy-navy-vessels-shadow-fleet-europe — Russian official Nikolai Patrushev warned Moscow could deploy naval forces to protect sanctioned “shadow fleet” tankers from European seizures. * Russian Intelligence Uses Former Wagner Group Recruiters for Sabotage in Europe — Vladyslav Khomenko (Militarnyi) — https://militarnyi.com/en/news/russian-intelligence-uses-former-wagner-group-recruiters-for-sabotage-in-europe/ — Western intelligence reports Russia’s GRU is leveraging former Wagner recruiters to organize sabotage operations across Europe targeting Ukraine-related infrastructure. * US-Dutch F-16 Squadron Said to Aid Ukrainian Air Forces in Combat Operations — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/us-dutch-f-16-squadron-said-to-aid-ukrainian-air-forces-in-combat-operations/ — A French outlet alleged a covert U.S.-Dutch F-16 squadron is assisting Ukraine in air defense missions, a claim Ukrainian officials publicly denied. * U.S. and Dutch Pilots Allegedly Flying Ukrainian F-16s in Combat, Sources Say — Stefano D’Urso (The Aviationist) — https://theaviationist.com/2026/02/17/us-and-dutch-pilots-allegedly-flying-ukrainian-f-16s/ — Unverified reports claim retired U.S. and Dutch pilots are flying Ukrainian F-16s in combat air defense missions alongside Ukrainian crews. Iran and Middle East * Iran Update, February 17, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats Project (CTP-ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-17-2026/ — Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rejected U.S. enrichment limits as negotiations continued in Geneva, while the IRGC conducted exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. * Iran Update, February 16, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats Project (CTP-ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-16-2026/ — CTP-ISW reports Syria is accelerating closure of al Hol camp amid security failures and that Iran continues nuclear signaling and Strait of Hormuz exercises. * U.S. and Iran tout progress in nuclear talks as supreme leader warns Trump over military buildup — Max Burman and Reuters (NBC News) — https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/us-iran-hold-high-stakes-nuclear-talks-geneva-threat-war-looms-rcna259304 — U.S. and Iranian negotiators cited progress in Geneva talks while Khamenei warned against U.S. military escalation and IRGC drills continued. * As Iran Negotiates, It Is Preparing for War With the U.S. — Margherita Stancati, Laurence Norman, Benoit Faucon (The Wall Street Journal) — https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/as-iran-negotiates-it-is-preparing-for-war-with-the-u-s-d0aa48fa — Iran has hardened nuclear sites, revived decentralized defense doctrine, and deployed naval assets to the Strait of Hormuz while continuing negotiations. * Weakening Hezbollah Requires Faster International Support to Lebanon — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/weakening-hezbollah-requires-faster-international-support-to-lebanon/ — ISW reports partial Hezbollah disarmament south of the Litani River while warning the group is reconstituting northward amid Iranian financial support. * Iran Pressures Hezbollah to Join the Campaign | What Can Be Published – and Israel’s Message — Yossi Yehoshua (Ynet) — https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/sj8wtdxuwg — Iran is reportedly pressuring Hezbollah to join a future conflict with Israel

34 min
4D AGO

Munich at an Inflection Point: Ukraine’s Existential War, Iranian Escalation, PLA Expansion, and the Global Shift in Air & Missile Defense

At the Munich Security Conference, European leaders characterized the outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine as “existential” for the continent, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed alliance ties and pressed for greater European responsibility in conventional defense. On the ground, Russia continues incremental offensive operations while shaping negotiations and election narratives to erode Ukrainian legitimacy. In the Middle East, Iran resumed nuclear talks in Geneva even as the IRGC conducted war games in the Strait of Hormuz and continued a sweeping domestic crackdown following nationwide protests. The U.S. reinforced regional posture with dual carrier presence, underscoring the convergence of diplomacy and coercive signaling. In Asia, reporting highlights the PLA’s expansion of joint forces training centers and dedicated OPFOR units, alongside continued PLAN fleet growth toward roughly 400 warships—evidence of institutionalized, multidomain preparation for high-end conflict. Across the Western Hemisphere, U.S.-managed Venezuelan oil revenues now exceed $1 billion, with funds transferred to a U.S. Treasury account amid unresolved recognition issues—placing energy, governance, and transition legitimacy at the center of the post-Maduro landscape. Finally, the episode examines the evolving air and missile defense environment: counter-drone interceptors, rifle-based “Drone Killer” ammunition, integration challenges, AI-enabled decision speed, and the enduring lesson that endurance—not a single engagement—defines modern defense. Framed through Musashi’s Five Rings (Ground Chapter), this episode explores how fundamentals, timing, integration, and disciplined preparation—not rhetoric—determine advantage in today’s strategic environment. Thanks for reading The LOWDOWN OSINT Report! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * China Expanding Joint Forces Training Centers and OPFOR — T2COM Intelligence Post (U.S. Army T2COM) — https://oe.t2com.army.mil/product/china-expanding-joint-forces-training-centers-and-opfor/ — The report assesses that the PLA is expanding joint training centers and dedicated opposing-force units to enhance multidomain, force-on-force readiness across army, navy, air, rocket, and cyber forces. * The Chinese Navy will soon outgun us in our own waters. It’s not an ‘over there’ problem — Tom Sharpe (The Telegraph) — https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/15/china-navy-plan-nuclear-submarines-carriers-rn-raf/ — The article states that the PLAN is expanding toward roughly 400 warships, including additional nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers, signaling growing global power-projection capability. * U.S. Marine Corps Aviation Plan 2026 — DocumentCloud (USMC) — https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/26923416/usmcaviationplan26.pdf?_bhlid=1def6ba75ab3fb556e21f7dc0543745dd50679a0 — The 2026 plan outlines Marine Corps Aviation modernization for contested operations, emphasizing distributed basing, manned-unmanned integration, sustainment resilience, and MAGTF support aligned to Force Design 2030. Russia and Europe * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment (ISW) — February 14, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-14-2026/ — ISW reports that Russia continues incremental, high-casualty advances while signaling regime-change objectives and shaping negotiation sequencing around Ukrainian elections and security guarantees. * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment (ISW) — February 15, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-15-2026/ — ISW assesses that Russia is attempting to delegitimize Ukrainian elections, influence negotiation terms, and sustain distributed offensive pressure while adapting electronic warfare measures. * Dispatch from Munich: The Future of Transatlantic Relations — Michael Froman (Council on Foreign Relations) — https://www.cfr.org/articles/dispatch-from-munich-the-future-of-transatlantic-relations — The article reports that Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed transatlantic ties at the Munich Security Conference while urging Europe to assume greater responsibility for conventional defense under NATO. * Making Europe ‘Great’ Again: US Hostility and the New World Order — William Dixon (RUSI) — https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/making-europe-great-again-us-hostility-and-new-world-order — The commentary argues that U.S. policy under President Trump is accelerating European defense consolidation, expanded military spending, and movement toward greater strategic autonomy. * ‘An Existential Question for Europe’ — John Haltiwanger and Rishi Iyengar (Foreign Policy) — https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/15/munich-security-conference-msc-kaja-kallas-woke-ukraine-gaza/ — The report states that European leaders at the Munich Security Conference described the outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine as existential and emphasized sustained support for Kyiv amid uncertainty over U.S. policy. * Rubio to Europe: “We Care Deeply” — FP Staff (Foreign Policy) — https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/14/rubio-munich-security-conference-speech/ — The article covers Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s February 14, 2026 speech reaffirming U.S.–European civilizational ties while calling for reindustrialization, border control, institutional reform, and allied reciprocity. * F-35 Software Could Be Jailbreaked Like An iPhone: Dutch Defense Secretary — Joseph Trevithick (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/air/f-35-software-could-be-jailbreaked-like-an-iphone-dutch-defense-minister — Dutch State Secretary for Defense Gijs Tuinman stated the F-35’s software architecture could theoretically be modified to accept third-party updates, highlighting allied concerns over U.S.-controlled sustainment systems. * RAF Deploys 18 Stealth Fighter Jets to the Mediterranean as Tensions Skyrocket — Bianca Jones (JFeed) — https://www.jfeed.com/news-world/f-35-mediterranean-deployment — The article reports that F-35A aircraft from RAF Lakenheath transited via aerial refueling toward Souda Bay, Crete, amid heightened regional tensions and force repositioning. * U.S. literally can’t afford to lose superpower status as debt looms—so we’re stuck in an ‘increasingly loveless’ marriage with Europe, analyst says — Jason Ma (Fortune) — https://fortune.com/2026/02/15/us-debt-deficits-superpower-status-european-allies-nato-military-economic-codependence-dollar/ — The article reports that analyst Dan Alamariu argues U.S. superpower status and dollar dominance remain structurally tied to NATO cohesion and European alliance integration despite political friction. * Italy Evaluating F-35 Highway Operations To Boost Fleet Survivability — David Cenciotti (The Aviationist) — https://theaviationist.com/2026/02/13/italy-evaluating-f-35-highway-ops/?utm_source=mailerlite_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2026-02-16&utm_campaign=+here+are+the+latest+stories+from+The+Aviationist+ — The article reports the Italian Air Force is assessing operating F-35A aircraft from highway sections as a dispersal measure to reduce airbase vulnerability in high-threat scenarios. Iran and Middle East * Tehran’s top diplomat goes to Geneva for nuclear talks amid IRGC’s Hormuz war games — Malek Fouda (Euronews) — https://www.euronews.com/2026/02/16/tehrans-top-diplomat-goes-to-geneva-for-nuclear-talks-amid-irgcs-hormuz-war-games — Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Geneva for renewed nuclear talks with the United States while the IRGC conducted military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. * New photos give glimpse inside Iran’s bloody crackdown on anti-government protests — Guardian reporters (The Guardian) — https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/ng-interactive/2026/feb/15/new-photos-give-glimpse-inside-irans-bloody-crackdown-on-anti-government-protests — The report presents photographic evidence and eyewitness accounts alleging extensive use of live fire, pellet munitions, arrests, and fatalities during January 2026 protests in Iran. * Iran protests crackdown arrests — Associated Press (AP News) — https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-crackdown-arrests-9de7c65d17920dc43568d3f025fed2cd — AP reports that Iranian authorities have detained tens of thousands following nationwide protests, with activist groups alleging thousands of deaths and widespread incommunicado detention. * WHAT WE HAVE SO FAR: F-35 movement from Lakenheath to Middle East #FreeIran — DefenceGeek (@DefenceGeek) (X) — * — Open-source flight tracking on 16 February 2026 indicated multiple USAF F-35A aircraft departed RAF Lakenheath in coordinated cells supported by KC-135 tankers routing RAF Mildenhall to Souda Bay, with final receiver destinations unconfirmed. * There is a massive US airlift operation ongoing today one of bigger days that has been noted — WarMonitor (@WarMonitor3); The Defense Analyst (@DefenseSIGINT) (X) — * — Open-source tracking on 16 February 2026 described six tankers escorting 18 F-35 aircraft toward Middle East bases alongside at least four C-17 transports, with no official U.S. statement cited. * U.S. CENTCOM, EUCOM, INDOPACOM | Air and Naval Assets — Ian Ellis (@ianellisjones), Image created by Ian Ellis Jones / IEJ Media — * — A 13 February 2026 graphic depicts two U.S. carrier strike groups, approximately 15 destroyers, submarines, and forward-deployed air assets across EUCOM, CENTCOM, and INDOPACOM with an estimated aggregate capacity of over 600 Tomahawk missiles. Western Hemisphere * Venezuela oil sales top $1 billion, funds won’t go to Qatar account

31 min
6D AGO

Dual Carriers to Iran, Russia’s Nuclear Posture in Belarus, PLA Taiwan Build-Up, Cuba Blackouts, and the 2036 Multipolar Forecast

This week’s LOWDOWN examines accelerating global competition across military, economic, and technological domains—moving from force posture shifts in the Middle East to nuclear signaling in Eastern Europe and sustained pressure around Taiwan. Iran & the Middle East:The Pentagon reinforces regional posture as the USS Gerald R. Ford deploys to join a second carrier strike group, contingency planning expands toward sustained operations, the Air Force moves to replenish Massive Ordnance Penetrators used in 2025 strikes, and new tanker self-defense concepts emerge. The Marine Corps fields lower-cost counter-drone capabilities while Iran rejects missile negotiations amid mounting U.S. signaling. Russia & Europe:Satellite imagery indicates a possible Russian Oreshnik missile presence in Belarus. Estonia assesses NATO deterrence is holding—even as Moscow scales ammunition production to roughly seven million rounds annually and reorganizes around drone-centric warfare. Reports highlight consolidation of Russia’s Su-57 fleet near China, Algeria’s apparent receipt of Su-57 fighters, European findings regarding Navalny’s death, Kremlin discussions of potential dollar-settlement realignment, and Russian hybrid recruitment through gaming platforms. China, Taiwan & Asia:PLA modernization targeting Taiwan continues despite leadership turbulence, with expanded amphibious and unmanned capabilities. Japan detains a Chinese fishing vessel inside its EEZ, South Korea signals possible dynastic succession developments in Pyongyang, and a Section 1260H list of Chinese military-linked firms is abruptly withdrawn. Software-defined electronic warfare systems demonstrate jammer geolocation without new hardware. Western Hemisphere:Satellite analysis shows Cuban nighttime illumination down as much as 50% following halted oil shipments. The Pentagon’s reported operational use of Anthropic’s Claude AI during the Maduro capture raises policy friction. NORAD conducts an F-16 intercept during a presidential TFR violation. Technology & Force Development:The Navy and DIU seek long-range strike drones capable of 600 nautical mile combat radius. Directed-energy research resurfaces in AHI debates. A 2,400-square-foot phased-array satellite deploys in LEO for direct-to-smartphone connectivity. Steel Knight 25 advances distributed kill web concepts under contested logistics. Foundational Lens — Atlantic Council’s “Welcome to 2036”:We close by framing today’s developments against the Atlantic Council’s expert forecast: a more multipolar world, China’s economic rise, enduring U.S. military dominance, expanding nuclear risk, and intensifying technology-driven competition. The pattern is clear: carrier deployments, missile production, gray-zone operations, AI-enabled warfare, and energy leverage are not isolated headlines—they are indicators of a system trending toward sustained, technologically accelerated, multipolar competition. Full source listing available at: China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * Smart Software Cuts Through Electronic Fog And Find Jammers — David Hambling (Forbes) — https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2026/02/11/smart-software-cuts-through-electronic-fog-and-locates-jammers/ — On Feb. 11, 2026, David Hambling reports that Tenna Systems is fielding a software-first electronic warfare solution that aggregates RF telemetry from existing radios and devices to map interference, geolocate jammers within roughly 25 meters, and enable adaptive filtering without new hardware. * As Diplomats Talk, Pentagon Prepares for Possible War With Iran — Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt (The New York Times) — https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/13/us/politics/trump-iran-pentagon.html — On Feb. 13, 2026, Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt report that the Pentagon is rebuilding offensive and defensive force posture in the Middle East, including carrier strike groups, destroyers, missile defenses, and aircraft, while diplomatic talks with Iran continue. * Targeting Taiwan Under Xi: China’s Military Forest Flourishing Despite Toppling Trees — Andrew S. Erickson (Harvard Fairbank Center) — https://fairbank.fas.harvard.edu/research/blog/targeting-taiwan-under-xi-chinas-military-forest-flourishing-despite-toppling-trees/ — Published Feb. 12, 2026, Andrew S. Erickson assesses that despite senior leadership purges, the PLA continues advancing Taiwan-focused capabilities, conducting large-scale exercises, missile tests, and maritime mobilization consistent with 2027 warfighting objectives. * China & Taiwan Update — Institute for the Study of War – China Desk (ISW-CDOT) — https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/china-taiwan-update-february-13-2026/ — On Feb. 13, 2026, ISW reports continued PLA expansion of amphibious and unmanned capabilities, U.S. legislative moves to deepen Taiwan cooperation, and regional political developments affecting cross-strait security dynamics. * Kim Jong Un’s daughter close to being designated future leader, says spy agency — The Associated Press (NPR) — https://www.npr.org/2026/02/12/g-s1-109778/kim-jong-uns-daughter-close-to-being-designated-future-leader-says-spy-agency — On Feb. 12, 2026, the Associated Press reports that South Korea’s National Intelligence Service assessed Kim Jong Un’s teenage daughter is nearing formal designation as North Korea’s successor. * Japan seizes Chinese fishing boat and arrests skipper — Reuters (NBC News) — https://www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/japan-seizes-chinese-fishing-boat-arrests-skipper-rcna258882 — On Feb. 12, 2026, Japanese authorities seized a Chinese fishing vessel and arrested its captain for allegedly ignoring inspection orders inside Japan’s exclusive economic zone off Nagasaki prefecture. * Chinese Company Names Suddenly “Withdrawn” From Federal US Government List — Nick Mordowanec (Military.com) — https://www.military.com/daily-news/2026/02/13/chinese-company-names-suddenly-withdrawn-federal-us-government-list.html — On February 13, 2026, a Federal Register notice marked as withdrawn a recently submitted Section 1260H list identifying Chinese military companies, including reported additions such as Alibaba and Baidu, after an agency letter requested its removal following public inspection placement. Russia and Europe * Satellite Imagery Points To Possible Russian Oreshnik Missile Site In Belarus — RFE/RL’s Belarus Service (RFE/RL) — https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-russian-missile-deployment-satellite-imagery/33675391.html — On Feb. 11, 2026, RFE/RL reports satellite imagery indicating possible deployment of Russia’s nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system at a site near Krychau, Belarus, following rapid construction and arrival of launcher-sized vehicles. * ‘We’ll Have to Use Carrier Pigeons’: Russian Troops in Chaos as Telegram, Starlink Cut Off — Alisa Orlova (Kyiv Post) — https://www.kyivpost.com/post/69854 — On Feb. 11, 2026, Alisa Orlova reports Russian frontline forces experienced communications disruptions after Telegram throttling and reported Starlink terminal disablement, affecting coordination and operations. * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-13-2026/ — On Feb. 13, 2026, ISW assesses Russian territorial demands in peace talks, ongoing offensive operations with limited advances, economic strain indicators, and continued missile and drone strikes across Ukraine. * Why Is Russia Hiding Nearly Entire Su-57 Stealth Fleet at Remote Base Near China — Ivan Khomenko (United24) — https://united24media.com/latest-news/why-is-russia-hiding-nearly-entire-su-57-stealth-fleet-at-remote-base-near-china-15802 — Published Feb. 11, 2026, Ivan Khomenko reports satellite imagery showing most operational Su-57 fighters concentrated at Dzyomgi airbase near China, likely for protection and proximity to the manufacturing plant. * Joint Statement by the UK, Sweden, France, Germany and The Netherlands on Alexei Navalny’s death — Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and The Rt Hon Yvette Cooper MP (UK Government) — https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-by-the-uk-sweden-france-germany-and-the-netherlands-on-alexei-navalnys-death — On Feb. 14, 2026, five European governments stated they concluded Alexei Navalny was poisoned with epibatidine and notified the OPCW of what they describe as a Russian breach of international conventions. * Estonian spies believe Europe’s collective deterrence push is working — Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo (Defense News) — https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2026/02/11/estonian-spies-believe-europes-collective-deterrence-push-is-working/ — Published February 11, 2026, Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service assessed that Russia is unlikely to attack NATO within two years while warning that Moscow has expanded ammunition production to roughly seven million rounds annually and reorganized forces around large-scale drone integration. * Russian stealth jets have arrived in North Africa, as filmed by Algerian potato farmer — Linus Höller (Defense News) — https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2026/02/10/russian-stealth-jets-have-arrived-in-north-africa-as-filmed-by-algerian-potato-farmer/ — Published February 10, 2026, open-source video near Oum El Bouaghi Air Base appears to confirm Algeria has received Russia’s Su-57 stealth fighters, with prior reports indicating an order of 12 aircraft and 14 Su-34 fighter-bombers. * Russia may return to US dollar settlement system in Trump deal: what the proposed US-Russia economic partnership includes and is BRICS de-dollarization now a dead game? — Piyush Shukla (The Economic Times) — https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/russia-may-return-to-us-dollar-settlement-system-in-trump-deal-what-the-propo

26 min
FEB 13

Russia Tightens RuNet as Ukraine Strikes Deep, PLA Leadership Purges Expand, Iran Missile Talks Stall, and U.S. Counter-Drone Laser Triggers El Paso Airspace Shutdown

This episode of The LOWDOWN examines accelerating stress signals across multiple theaters, from Russian information control measures and Ukrainian deep strikes to elite instability inside the People’s Liberation Army, conditional Iranian missile diplomacy, and a U.S. domestic airspace disruption tied to counter-drone laser use. Russia and Europe:The Kremlin intensifies control over the Russian information space, restricting Telegram, WhatsApp, and other Western platforms through the sovereign RuNet system as Lavrov reiterates Moscow’s unchanged maximalist war aims. Ukrainian forces conduct localized counterattacks near the Dnipropetrovsk–Zaporizhia border while striking high-value targets inside Russia, including a GRAU arsenal in Volgograd Oblast and the Ukhta Oil Refinery in Komi Republic. Meanwhile, occupation authorities accelerate child and property re-registration deadlines, and regional fiscal strain surfaces as Orenburg secures a rare horizontal subsidy to fund military recruitment bonuses. The UK and Netherlands expand air defense and F-16 support to Ukraine. China, North Korea, and Asia:The PLA high command remains unsettled following senior purges, leaving the Central Military Commission hollowed and the Joint Staff Department leadership uncertain. Defense Minister Dong Jun emerges as a leading contender for elevation as Xi Jinping reshapes the top ranks. The CIA launches a Mandarin-language recruitment video targeting corruption grievances within the PLA. North Korea joins Belarus, Russia, Iran, and Myanmar in advancing a “Eurasian Charter” initiative, signaling deeper integration into a Russia-centered bloc. U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command assesses China’s H-20 stealth bomber remains short of true global strike capability. Iran and the Middle East:Tehran signals willingness to discuss ballistic missiles only after a nuclear agreement, while Israeli officials warn of rapid missile stockpile regeneration. President Trump reportedly orders a second carrier strike group, likely USS George H.W. Bush, to spin up for potential Middle East deployment, with earliest on-station arrival projected mid-March. CENTCOM completes the orderly departure from al-Tanf Garrison in Syria while maintaining counter-ISIS strike pressure. Western Hemisphere:The FAA abruptly closes and then reopens El Paso airspace after uncoordinated use of a high-energy LOCUST counter-drone laser near Fort Bliss, exposing interagency coordination gaps. Conflicting narratives emerge regarding cartel drone incursions. Separately, reporting alleges .50 caliber ammunition from the Lake City Army Ammunition Plant is reaching Mexican cartels, raising cross-border security concerns. Using John Boyd’s entropy lens from Destruction and Creation, this episode examines where disorder is accumulating beneath surface stability — narrative tightening in Russia, elite fragmentation in the PLA, conditional escalation signaling in Iran, and friction inside U.S. interagency coordination — to assess trajectory rather than headline outcomes. For defense professionals, the focus remains on system health, internal stress signals, and whether actors are adapting — or doubling down. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * North Korea Takes Its Place at ‘Eurasian Charter’ Table — Lee, Rachel Minyoung (38 North) — https://www.38north.org/2026/02/north-korea-takes-its-place-at-eurasian-charter-table/ — Belarus, North Korea, Iran, Myanmar, and Russia coauthored a February 3, 2026 joint statement launching a consultative process to develop a “Eurasian Charter of Diversity and Multipolarity in the XXI Century,” reflecting Pyongyang’s expanding alignment with Moscow-led initiatives. * Leaked technical documents show China rehearsing cyberattacks on neighbors’ critical infrastructure — Recorded Future News (The Record) — https://therecord.media/leaked-china-documents-show-testing-cyber-neighbors — Leaked technical files indicate a Chinese firm developed a state-linked cyber range platform called “Expedition Cloud” to rehearse offensive cyber operations against replicated critical infrastructure networks in the South China Sea and Indochina directions. * Sea Dragon Refits Its Armor: The Type 076 Amphibious Assault Ship Ushers in a New Era — He, Yin (CMSI Translations #26, China Maritime Studies Institute) — https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-translations/34/ — The CMSI translation assesses that China’s Type 076 amphibious assault ship integrates electromagnetic catapult and arresting gear systems to enable fixed-wing aircraft operations, marking a qualitative shift in PLA Navy amphibious and sea-control capabilities. * China ‘Just Not There Yet’ On H-20 Stealth Bomber: Global Strike Command’s Top General — Joseph Trevithick and Howard Altman (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/air/china-just-not-there-yet-on-h-20-stealth-bomber-global-strike-commands-top-general — USAF Global Strike Command’s Gen. Stephen Davis stated China remains a regional bomber force and has not yet achieved a global strike capability comparable to U.S. stealth bombers despite ongoing H-20 development. * Defense Minister Dong Jun Leading Contender for CMC Seat — Jamestown Foundation (Jamestown) — https://jamestown.org/defense-minister-dong-jun-leading-contender-for-cmc-seat/ — The report assesses that Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun is the leading candidate for elevation to the Central Military Commission following recent purges that hollowed out senior PLA leadership. * Elite Fragmentation and Anxiety in the PLA — Jamestown Foundation (Jamestown) — https://jamestown.org/elite-fragmentation-and-anxiety-in-the-pla/ — The analysis examines institutional strain within the PLA after the removal of senior generals, highlighting leadership vacancies in the CMC and Joint Staff Department and the prioritization of political loyalty. * C.I.A. Video Appeals to Potential Spies in China’s Military — Julian E. Barnes (The New York Times) — https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/12/us/politics/cia-china-spies.html — The CIA released a Mandarin-language recruitment video on February 12, 2026 targeting disaffected PLA officers amid ongoing anti-corruption purges within China’s military. * Harnessing the People: Mapping Overseas United Front Work in Democratic States — Cheryl Yu (The Jamestown Foundation) — https://jamestown.org/harnessing-the-people-mapping-overseas-united-front-work-in-democratic-states/ — The report identifies more than 2,000 organizations across four Western democracies with ties to the CCP’s united front system and assesses their role in advancing Beijing’s political and economic objectives abroad. * China lifts veil on secretive underwater combat vehicle at Saudi Arabia defence show — South China Morning Post (SCMP) — https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3343069/china-lifts-veil-secretive-underwater-combat-vehicle-saudi-arabia-defence-show — China unveiled a previously undisclosed underwater combat vehicle at a Saudi defense exhibition, signaling expanded development and export of advanced unmanned naval systems. Russia and Europe * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 11, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-11-2026/ — ISW reported coordinated Kremlin messaging reaffirming maximalist war aims, continued Russian offensive operations, Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure, and $4.5 billion in NATO PURL contributions since Summer 2025. * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 12, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-12-2026/ — ISW reported Russian restrictions on Western platforms via RuNet, Ukrainian strikes on military and oil infrastructure in Russia, and new UK and Dutch military assistance to Ukraine. * Russian Occupation Update, February 12, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-occupation-update-february-12-2026/ — ISW reported accelerated Russian administrative measures in occupied Ukraine, including re-registration deadlines for guardianship and property that could enable child removals and property seizures. * Russian stealth jets have arrived in North Africa, as filmed by Algerian potato farmer — Linus Höller (Defense News) — https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2026/02/10/russian-stealth-jets-have-arrived-in-north-africa-as-filmed-by-algerian-potato-farmer/ — Video posted in Algeria appears to show a Russian Su-57 operating near Oum El Bouaghi Air Base, supporting prior reporting of Algerian procurement of the stealth fighter. * Russian Regions Starved for Money by Moscow Facing Serious Financial Problems — Jamestown Foundation (Jamestown) — https://jamestown.org/russian-regions-starved-for-money-by-moscow-facing-serious-financial-problems/ — The report details mounting fiscal distress among Russian federal subjects due to centralized revenue extraction, unfunded mandates, and emerging horizontal subsidy arrangements between regions. Iran and Middle East * Iran Update, February 11, 2026 — CTP-ISW (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-11-2026/ — CTP-ISW assessed that Iran signaled possible future discussion of its ballistic missile program while continuing nuclear talks and engaging regional diplomacy amid Israeli concerns over missile stockpiles. * Second Carrier Strike Group Ordered To Spin-Up For Deployment To Middle East: Report — Howard Altman (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/news-features/second-carrier-strike-group-ordered-to-spin-up-for-deployment-to-middle-east-report — The Wall Street Journal reported President Donald Trump directed a second U.S. Navy

31 min
FEB 11

Carrier Posture, Korean Modernization Signals, Iran Unrest, Russian Adaptation, and Boyd’s Warning on Strategic Blindness

This episode of The LOWDOWN examines escalating global military posture, evolving battlefield adaptation, and internal regime pressures across multiple theaters—through the analytical lens of John Boyd’s Destruction and Creation. In the Indo-Pacific, North Korea appears poised to use an upcoming parade to signal progress in its 2021–2025 modernization cycle, potentially emphasizing survivable nuclear delivery systems and improved targeting capabilities. Pyongyang’s economic rebound—fueled by expanded trade with China and large-scale cryptocurrency theft—coincides with South Korea’s decision to proceed with the Freedom Shield exercise. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s collapse of the F-15EX deal signals continued diversification in regional fighter procurement. In the Middle East, Iran faces sustained domestic unrest following a deadly January crackdown, even as pro-regime rallies attempt to project internal stability. President Trump signaled consideration of deploying a second U.S. carrier strike group to CENTCOM if negotiations with Tehran fail. Concurrently, Washington approved major new arms packages to Israel and Saudi Arabia, reinforcing regional air, ground, and missile defense capabilities amid heightened deterrence signaling. Across Russia and Europe, Moscow continues rejecting meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine while reinvoking its 2022 Istanbul negotiating framework. The Kremlin throttled Telegram in a significant escalation of domestic information control, raising concerns even among Russian military bloggers about command-and-control impacts. Ukraine reported destruction of approximately 6,000 Russian FPV drones in cross-border strikes, while NATO aircraft intercepted a Russian fighter near Baltic airspace. Russian defense industry efforts to modernize artillery barrel production despite sanctions highlight ongoing adaptation. In the Western Hemisphere and beyond, President Trump indicated potential land-based strikes in Latin America targeting narcotics networks, while the U.S. announced deployment of 200 troops to Nigeria in an advisory counterinsurgency role. U.S. forces also seized a sanctioned oil tanker in the Indian Ocean as part of expanded maritime enforcement. The episode concludes with a focused deep dive into Boyd’s warning about closed systems and strategic blindness. As Russia tightens internal narrative control and maintains doctrinal rigidity, and Iran frames dissent as anomaly, the risk of inward refinement increasing external mismatch becomes visible. In contrast, the U.S. Army’s deliberate stress-testing of its Next Generation Command and Control (NGC2) system under electronic warfare conditions illustrates Boyd’s prescription: inject disruption before reality does it for you. This is a wide-arc look at posture, pressure, and adaptation—across theaters—through an enduring analytic lens that remains acutely relevant in 2026. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * Korean Peninsula Update, February 10, 2026 — ISW–CDOT (Institute for the Study of War (ISW) – China and Data Observatory Team (CDOT)) — https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/korean-peninsula-update-february-10-2026/ — North Korea may unveil new strategic systems at an upcoming Pyongyang parade as it closes out the 2021–2025 modernization plan, amid signs of economic rebound and South Korea proceeding with the March 9–19 Freedom Shield exercise. * Boeing abandons Indonesia F-15 bid — Michael Marrow (Breaking Defense) — https://breakingdefense.com/2026/02/boeing-abandons-indonesia-f-15-bid/ — Boeing ended its campaign to sell up to 24 F-15EX fighters to Indonesia after Jakarta did not finalize the procurement announced in 2023. Russia and Europe * Russia unveils new multiple launch rocket system that’s highly mobile and precision-capable — Prabhat Ranjan Mishra (International Business Times) — https://interestingengineering.com/military/russia-rocket-system-precision-capable — Russia showcased the Sarma 300mm wheeled MLRS at World Defense Show 2026 in Riyadh, describing it as a mobile, automated, precision-capable launcher that can integrate drones and fire-control systems and use guided munitions with reported ranges up to about 120 km. * Russia deploys local satellite terminals to replace Starlink — Dylan Malyasov (NewsArmy) — https://defence-blog.com/russia-deploys-local-satellite-terminals-to-replace-starlink/ — A Ukrainian defense adviser said Russia is fielding Yamal- and Express-based satellite internet terminals with larger visible dish antennas after reported Russian Starlink access was blocked. * Ukraine Takes Out 6,000 Russian FPV Drones in Cross-Border Strikes — Julia Struck (Kyiv Post) — https://www.kyivpost.com/post/69723 — Ukraine’s General Staff said Ukrainian strikes hit targets including a UAV depot and destroyed about 6,000 Russian FPV drones, along with a command post and an ammunition storage site, with assessments ongoing. * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 10, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-10-2026/ — ISW reported Russia blamed the U.S. for stalled negotiations, throttled Telegram, pursued sanctions-evasion for machine tools to expand production, and continued offensive and strike activity across multiple fronts while Ukraine conducted localized advances and strikes. * Russia’s FPV drone campaign in Ukraine institutionalizes intentional civilian harm as a tool of war — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) (Institute for the Study of War) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russias-fpv-drone-campaign-in-ukraine-institutionalizes-intentional-civilian-harm-as-a-tool-of-war/ — ISW assessed Russian forces have conducted widespread FPV drone strikes against civilian targets and infrastructure in Ukraine’s near rear as an institutionalized component of Russian military operations. Iran and Middle East * Iran Update, February 10, 2026 — CTP-ISW (Institute for the Study of War) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-10-2026/ — On February 10, the report says Iran continued rejecting negotiations on its ballistic missile program and Axis of Resistance support as Ali Larijani traveled to Oman and met a Houthi spokesperson, while Iran hardened Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center tunnel entrances, Iranian authorities intensified domestic securitization amid limited student protests and strikes, Iran-backed actors pressed Iraqi government formation around Nouri al Maliki, Syrian government–SDF implementation and integration talks continued, Hezbollah-linked networks showed activity in Syria and the West Bank, and the U.S. expanded financial sanctions targeting Hezbollah-linked entities and Iran-related sanctions evasion. * A Second Wave of Popular Anger Is Building in Iran — Margherita Stancati and Benoit Faucon (The Wall Street Journal) — https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/a-second-wave-of-popular-anger-is-building-in-iran-ac51969c — The report said Iranian public defiance increased after January’s protest killings, with funerals, student actions, and medical-worker protests continuing amid arrests and reports of thousands killed and tens of thousands detained. * Some Iranians rally behind the regime, but public anger runs deep after protest crackdown — Henry Austin (NBC News) — https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-protests-crackdown-ayatollah-khamenei-supporters-tehran-rcna257541 — The report described smaller pro-regime gatherings in Tehran alongside continued widespread anger after the crackdown, citing casualty and arrest figures reported by a U.S.-based monitoring group and noting increased U.S. military deployments and talks. * US approves major new arms sales to Israel worth $6.67 billion and to Saudi Arabia worth $9 billion — Matthew Lee (Associated Press) — https://apnews.com/article/israel-arms-sale-trump-iran-tensions-e73d1fe40974abca838a1a08590934d3 — The State Department announced arms sales totaling $6.67B to Israel and $9B to Saudi Arabia, including Patriot missiles for Saudi Arabia and Apache helicopters plus vehicles for Israel, as tensions rose over Iran. * Trump: Iran would be ‘foolish’ not to make a deal on its nuclear and missile programs — Reuters (Reuters) — https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/trump-iran-would-be-foolish-not-to-make-a-deal-on-its-nuclear-and-missile-programs/ — Reuters reported Trump said on February 11, 2026 that Iran wants to make a deal with the U.S. on its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and would be “foolish” not to. * Trump Considers Sending Second U.S. Aircraft Carrier Strike Group to the Middle East — OSINTdefender (citing Axios reporting by Barak Ravid) (Axios / OSINTdefender) — * — OSINTdefender reported Trump told Axios he is considering deploying a second carrier strike group to the Middle East and that a U.S. official confirmed discussions about an additional carrier deployment. Western Hemisphere * Donald Trump Promises ‘Very Hard’ Land Strikes in Latin America — Gabe Whisnant (Newsweek) — https://www.newsweek.com/trump-promises-hard-land-strikes-latin-america-drug-trafficking-11500789 — The report said Trump stated his administration plans to shift from maritime interdiction to land-based strikes in Latin America to combat drug trafficking, without detailing countries, timelines, or authorities. * Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro Says He Escaped Assassination Plot — Gabe Whisnant (Newsweek) — https://www.newsweek.com/gustavo-petro-escaped-assassination-attempt-helicopter-11500384 — The article content was not provided in the input beyond the title and URL. All Other Reporting * Chief of Naval Operations Unveils “Fighting Instructions” at U.S. Naval War College — U.S. Navy (Office o

32 min
FEB 10

Iran Crackdown, US–Iran Nuclear Signaling, Russian Peace Pressure, and Global Force Posture Shifts

This episode covers the most consequential security developments shaping the current strategic environment as of February 9, 2026. In Iran and the Middle East, we examine Tehran’s arrest of senior reformist figures following nationwide protests, concurrent IRGC ballistic missile testing, and emerging Iranian signals offering limited nuclear-only concessions in exchange for full sanctions relief, alongside intensified US force posture movements involving Patriot and THAAD deployments and growing pressure on Lebanon’s government to confront Hezbollah. In Russia and Europe, the focus shifts to Moscow’s renewed effort to blame the United States for stalled peace efforts, Lavrov’s explicit reiteration of Russia’s maximalist war aims for Ukraine, and ongoing battlefield realities marked by incremental advances, inflated Russian reporting, and information operations. The episode also covers mounting economic pressure on Russia through India’s reduction of Russian oil purchases, US interdictions of shadow fleet tankers, and continued airspace probing from Belarus into NATO territory. In China and Asia, we assess the PLA’s evolving large-scale combat operations doctrine, intensifying pressure on Taiwan through coercive signaling below the threshold of war, advances in Chinese naval strike capabilities, and internal command-and-control vulnerabilities driven by political centralization and leadership purges. The episode concludes with a foundational analytical segment drawing on John Boyd’s Destruction and Creation, applying Boyd’s framework of cognitive adaptation and decision-cycle dominance to current Russian, Iranian, and Chinese behavior, and highlighting why the ability—or refusal—to discard outdated mental models is becoming a decisive factor in modern competition and conflict. Russia and Europe * Russian Armed Forces Division in a Positional Defense — TRADOC G-2, Threats and Capabilities (U.S. Army TRADOC G-2) — https://g2webcontent.z2.web.core.usgovcloudapi.net/OEE/Russia%20Landing%20Zone/ThreatTemp_Russia_03_Division_Positional_Defense.pdf — The report outlines how a Russian division conducts a depth-oriented positional defense emphasizing echelonment, centralized artillery fires, reserves, and deliberate counterattacks to attrit and halt an attacking force. * Russia Using Information Confrontation as a Weapons System — TRADOC G-2, Threats and Capabilities (U.S. Army TRADOC G-2 Intelligence Post) — https://g2webcontent.z2.web.core.usgovcloudapi.net/OEE/Russia%20Landing%20Zone/Russia_Information_Confrontation.pdf — The assessment describes how Russia integrates information confrontation across strategic, operational, and tactical levels to manipulate perceptions, degrade C5ISR, and influence adversary decision-making. * Eight Days – then it’s over — Tom Tugendhat (The Reset) — * — The article reports that UK military exercises show British ammunition stockpiles would be exhausted within eight days during high-intensity peer conflict. * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-9-2026/ — The assessment documents Russia’s continued incremental ground operations, diplomatic messaging, long-range strikes, and economic pressure points across Ukraine as of February 9, 2026. Iran and Middle East * Iran Update, February 9, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-9-2026/ — The update details Iranian nuclear negotiation signaling, internal crackdowns, proxy activity, missile testing, and regional developments across Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. * Iran Arrests Prominent Reformist Politicians, Cites Links to US and Israel — Al Jazeera Staff (Al Jazeera) — https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/9/iran-arrests-prominent-reformists-over-deadly-january-unrest — Iranian authorities arrested senior reformist figures on February 9, 2026, accusing them of coordinating with foreign actors during January protests. * A-10 Warthog Protects Mine-Hunting Littoral Combat Ship In Persian Gulf Drill — Tyler Rogoway (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/air/a-10-warthogs-protect-mine-hunting-littoral-combat-ship-in-arabian-gulf-exercise — U.S. A-10C aircraft conducted maritime force protection exercises with USS Santa Barbara in the Persian Gulf to counter small boats and drone threats. * Laser-Guided Rocket-Armed F-15E Strike Eagles Make Super Bowl Cameo Appearance — Howard Altman (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/air/laser-guided-rocket-armed-f-15e-strike-eagles-make-super-bowl-cameo-appearance — APKWS-armed F-15E Strike Eagles deployed to Jordan were featured during Super Bowl LX, highlighting their counter-drone mission in the Middle East. * USAF Middle East Activity Update – Airlift and Tanker Movements — Armchair Admiral (X) — * — Open-source tracking shows over 120 U.S. airlift and tanker flights supporting air defense and force protection deployments into the CENTCOM area since mid-January 2026. * 2/9 Air Defense Move Update – USAF/Army Airlift to CENTCOM — TheIntelFrog (X) — * — The update reports that U.S. air and missile defense deployments to the Middle East resumed at high tempo and are nearing completion as of February 9, 2026. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * How China Fights Against a U.S. Army Brigade Combat Team — TRADOC G-2, Threats and Capabilities (U.S. Army TRADOC G-2) — https://g2webcontent.z2.web.core.usgovcloudapi.net/OEE/China%20Landing%20Zone/2026FEB04_T2COMG2_How_CHI_Fights_LSCO_Assessment1-1.1_digital%201.pdf — The assessment describes how a PLA Heavy Combined Arms Brigade conducts system-focused large-scale combat operations against a U.S. BCT through multidomain shaping, penetration, and exploitation. * China’s Fastest Anti-Ship Missile May Have Quietly Entered Naval Service — Christopher McFadden (Straight Arrow News) — https://interestingengineering.com/military/china-fastest-anti-ship-missile-enter-service — Imagery suggests China’s YJ-15 air-launched anti-ship missile may be operational on carrier-capable fighters, indicating expanded maritime strike capability. * Xi Jinping Can Never Trust His Own Military — Deng Yuwen (Foreign Policy) — https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/09/china-xi-generals-military-zhang-youxia-liu-zhenli/ — The article reports that Xi Jinping’s ongoing purges of senior PLA leaders reflect persistent distrust and centralized control within China’s military. * Deterrence Won’t Fail in the Taiwan Strait — It Will Be Bypassed — J. William DeMarco (War on the Rocks) — https://warontherocks.com/2026/02/deterrence-wont-fail-in-the-taiwan-strait-it-will-be-bypassed/ — The article argues that China is using sustained coercion and ambiguity short of war to pressure Taiwan and bypass traditional deterrence frameworks. * Beijing’s Growth Model Is Still Broken — Dinny McMahon (Foreign Affairs) — https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/beijings-growth-model-still-broken-dinny-mcmahon — The article reports that China’s export- and investment-driven growth strategy continues to generate domestic economic imbalances and global trade friction. Western Hemisphere * US Navy’s New Laser Weapon Downs Four Drones at Sea — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/us-navys-new-laser-weapon-downs-four-drones-at-sea/ — The U.S. Navy’s HELIOS laser system successfully downed four drones during a counter-UAS exercise at sea, demonstrating multi-target engagement capability. * Navy Pilot to Receive Medal of Honor 75 Years After Saving Lives in Korean War — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/navy-pilot-to-receive-medal-of-honor-75-years-after-saving-lives-in-korean-war/ — Retired Navy Capt. E. Royce Williams will receive the Medal of Honor for downing Soviet-flown MiG-15s during a 1952 Korean War dogfight. All Other Reporting * US Navy Aircraft Carrier Status Overview — TheIntelFrog (X) — * — As of February 9, 2026, only two U.S. Navy aircraft carriers are deployed, with most of the force constrained by maintenance or training cycles. * USAF CORONET Movement – F-35A Deployment to Europe — Armchair Admiral (X) — * — Open-source tracking shows Vermont ANG F-35A aircraft deploying to Europe via a coordinated CORONET movement supported by KC-135 tankers. * USAF Aerial Refueling Force Disposition – Europe and CENTCOM — DefenceGeek (X) — * — The update identifies approximately 63–64 U.S. aerial refueling aircraft positioned across Europe and CENTCOM as of February 9, 2026. * Destruction and Creation — John R. Boyd (coljohnboyd.com) —https://www.coljohnboyd.com/#pdf-destruction-and-creation — Boyd’s 1976 paper outlines a theory of competitive advantage based on the continual destruction and reconstruction of mental models to adapt to changing reality. Destruction and Creation as an Analytic Lens: Competing in Systems, Cognition, and Tempo China – Large-Scale Combat Operations and Systems Confrontation Source Link: How China Fights Against a U.S. Army Brigade Combat Team (TRADOC G-2, Feb 2026) Alignment Strength: Strong Assessment:PLA doctrine closely reflects Boyd’s core warning: victory comes from collapsing the adversary’s mental and operational coherence faster than they can reframe reality. The PLA’s emphasis on systems confrontation—targeting C2, ISR, fires, sustainment, and decision cycles rather than force-on-force attrition—mirrors Boyd’s argument that advantage accrues to actors who can destroy the opponent’s conceptual model and impose disorder faster than it can be reconstructed. Application vs. Violation:China is applying Boyd’s framework deliberately. Extended shaping operations, deception, EW, cyber, and joint fires are designed to invalidate U.S. BCT as

42 min
FEB 9

Russia Escalates Strikes on Ukraine, Iran Rebuilds Missiles as Talks Stall, Israel Signals Unilateral Action, and the U.S. Accelerates Drone, Bomber, and Munitions Posture

This episode covers a week of high-impact developments across major theaters. In Europe, Russia intensifies long-range drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian energy and nuclear-linked infrastructure while limited cross-border activity and U.S.-imposed negotiation timelines shape the information and diplomatic battlefield. In the Middle East, indirect U.S.–Iran nuclear talks in Oman fail to produce progress as satellite imagery shows Iran rapidly rebuilding ballistic missile facilities, Israel warns it may strike alone if missile thresholds are crossed, and the UK reinforces RAF Akrotiri with F-35Bs amid rising regional tension. In Asia and the global maritime domain, Japan’s snap election delivers Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi a supermajority to pursue defense reforms, China advances high-speed helicopter programs, and Beijing’s state-linked port network across Africa signals long-term naval positioning. In the Western Hemisphere, the U.S. moves to accelerate lethality and sustainment through one-way attack drone competitions, expanded bomber and fighter force-structure recommendations, ammunition acquisition reform, and new critical mineral stockpiling. The episode concludes by applying Stratagems for Desperate Situations as an analytic lens, examining how deception, layered tactics, and managed escalation are shaping state behavior across today’s conflicts. Russia and Europe * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 7, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-7-2026/ — ISW reported that Russia launched 408 drones and 39 missiles overnight on February 6–7 targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure and high-voltage substations supporting nuclear power plants, while noting reported U.S. pressure for a March 2026 peace-deal target and that GRU First Deputy Head Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev survived a February 6 assassination attempt. * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 8, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-8-2026/ — ISW reported on February 8 that Russia is using limited cross-border activity in northern Sumy/Kharkiv for informational effects amid an unverified MoD claim of seizing Sydorivka, while also noting reports of Russian communications issues after SpaceX blocked unregistered Starlink terminals and that Ukraine confirmed January strikes damaged facilities at Russia’s Kapustin Yar launch site. * At least 6 injured in grenade attack on beauty salon in southeastern France — İlayda Çakırtekin (Anadolu Agency) — https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/at-least-6-injured-in-grenade-attack-on-beauty-salon-in-southeastern-france/3822861 — Anadolu Agency reported that on February 6 a grenade was thrown into a beauty salon in Grenoble, injuring at least six people including a five-year-old, and that the perpetrators fled the scene. * U.S. gave Ukraine and Russia June deadline to reach peace agreement, Zelenskyy says — Associated Press (NPR) — https://www.npr.org/2026/02/08/nx-s1-5705967/u-s-gave-ukraine-and-russia-june-deadline-to-reach-peace-agreement-zelenskyy-says — NPR reported on February 8 that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the U.S. set a June 2026 deadline for Ukraine and Russia to reach a peace agreement and that Russia’s overnight strikes forced Ukrainian nuclear power plants to reduce output. Iran and Middle East * Iran Update, February 7, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-7-2026/ — ISW reported on February 7 that the U.S. and Iran planned another talks round early the week of February 8 with positions unchanged, alongside a February 6 U.S. order imposing a conditional 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran and reporting that Iraq received 2,250 ISIS detainees from Syria since January 21. * Iran Update, February 8, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-8-2026/ — ISW reported on February 8 that U.S.-Israel consultations would intensify ahead of a February 11 Trump–Netanyahu meeting while U.S.–Iran talks in Oman showed no Iranian shift on missiles or enrichment, and that Iran showcased and reportedly tested the Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missile amid regional signaling. * U.S.-Iran Indirect Nuclear Talks Fail to Make Significant Progress — Alexandra Sharp (Foreign Policy) — https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/06/us-iran-indirect-nuclear-talks-oman-trump-military-force-araghchi/?tpcc=recirc_latest062921 — Foreign Policy reported that indirect U.S.–Iran talks in Muscat on February 6 produced no major breakthrough amid persistent mistrust, with the U.S. including CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper and announcing new sanctions tied to Iran’s oil “shadow fleet.” * Iran Is at Work on Missile and Nuclear Sites, Satellite Images Show — Samuel Granados and Aurélien Breeden (The New York Times) — https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/world/middleeast/iran-missile-nuclear-repairs.html — The New York Times reported on February 6 that satellite imagery analysis found Iran repaired multiple ballistic missile facilities damaged in June 2025 relatively quickly while major nuclear sites showed slower, limited aboveground reconstruction. * Israel warns Trump: We may act alone if Iran crosses ballistic missile red line — Avi Ashkenazi (The Jerusalem Post) — https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-885948 — The Jerusalem Post reported on February 8 that Israeli defense officials told U.S. counterparts Israel is prepared to act unilaterally if Iran crosses an Israeli-defined ballistic missile “red line,” while saying Israel assesses it is not yet at that threshold. * UK Reinforces RAF Akrotiri With Deployment of Six F-35Bs — Kai Greet (The Aviationist) — https://theaviationist.com/2026/02/07/uk-reinforces-akrotiri-f35bs/ — The Aviationist reported that the UK deployed six RAF F-35B aircraft to RAF Akrotiri on February 6 to bolster the base’s defensive posture amid heightened Middle East tensions. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * New Photos Raise Questions About China’s Coaxial-Rotor Helicopter Knockoff — Stefano D’Urso (The Aviationist) — https://theaviationist.com/2026/02/06/new-images-chinas-coaxial-helicopter-knockoff/ — The Aviationist reported on February 6 that new imagery suggests China may have built a second compound helicopter demonstrator resembling U.S. X2-derived concepts, following an earlier S-97 Raider–like sighting reported in 2025. * How Japan’s prime minister will use her massive new mandate — Economist Staff (The Economist) — https://www.economist.com/asia/2026/02/08/how-japans-prime-minister-will-use-her-massive-new-mandate — The Economist reported that Japan’s ruling LDP won a commanding lower-house majority in the February 8 snap election, giving Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi a strong mandate to pursue fiscal measures and security reforms. * China encircles Africa for naval dominance — Ben Farmer (The Telegraph) — https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/04/china-encircles-africa-for-naval-dominance/ — The Telegraph reported on February 4 that Chinese state-linked firms are involved as builders, financiers, or operators at 78 ports across 32 African countries, with analysts warning many ports are capable of servicing warships. Western Hemisphere * Wearing smart glasses in uniform jeopardizes OPSEC, Air Force says — Cristina Stassis (Military Times) — https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-military/2026/02/06/wearing-smart-glasses-in-uniform-jeopardizes-opsec-air-force-says/ — Military Times reported that a memo dated 9 January updated U.S. Air Force dress and appearance policy to prohibit airmen from wearing smart glasses with photo, video, or AI capabilities while in uniform due to operational security concerns. * Rare earth miners jump as Trump announces establishment of critical mineral reserve — Yun Li (CNBC) — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/02/rare-earth-miners-jump-as-trump-is-reportedly-eyeing-mineral-stockpile-.html?_bhlid=8c381b887a56568847b1277c682c92adfda59ced — CNBC reported on February 2 that President Donald Trump announced “Project Vault,” a U.S. critical mineral reserve pairing $1.67 billion in private capital with a $10 billion Export-Import Bank loan, sending shares of several rare earth miners higher. * Pentagon picks 25 vendors to show off one-way attack drones in the Gauntlet competition — Ashley Roque (Defense News) — https://breakingdefense.com/2026/02/pentagon-picks-25-vendors-to-show-off-one-way-attack-drones-in-the-gauntlet-competition/?_bhlid=668a28432a768419232dc6aac6e2161a88735114 — Defense News reported on February 3 that DoD selected 25 companies to demonstrate low-cost one-way attack drones during “the Gauntlet” at Fort Benning from mid-February into March, with prototype awards expected to total $150 million. * DOJ Arrests Third Suspect in 2012 Benghazi Attack After Decade-Long Pursuit — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/doj-arrests-third-suspect-in-2012-benghazi-attack-after-decade-long-pursuit/ — SOFX reported on February 7 that DOJ announced the arrest and extradition of Zubayr Al-Bakoush, who was first charged in a sealed 2015 complaint, to face an unsealed eight-count indictment tied to the 2012 Benghazi attack. * New Report: Air Force Needs 200 B-21s, 300 F-47s to Deny Enemy ‘Sanctuaries’ — Greg Hadley (Air & Space Forces Magazine) — https://www.airandspaceforces.com/new-report-air-force-b-21s-f-47s-enemy-sanctuaries/ — Air & Space Forces Magazine reported on February 4 that a Mitchell Institute report recommended the Air Force procure at least 200 B-21 bombers and 300

28 min

See All (58)

4.9

out of 5

11 Ratings

Keep going!

Jan 6

Zac “RONA” Mennona

The Absolute Resolve song is 🔥 Great project, continue to QC the AI to prevent errors, false info, or mispronunciations. Love your work!

Creator

Joshua Patten
Years Active

2024 - 2026
Episodes

58
Rating

Clean
Show Website

The LOWDOWN

Technology

Technology

Updated Weekly
Comedy

Comedy

Updated Daily
Politics

Politics

Updated Daily
Politics

Politics

Updated Daily
History

History

Updated 3d ago
History

History

Updated Weekly
Management

Management

Updated Weekly

The LOWDOWN

Deadline Diplomacy and Shifting Battle Rhythms: Iran on the Brink, Ukraine Stalls, and China Shapes the Field

U.S.–Iran Crisis Point: Dual Carrier Surge, Israeli Maximum Alert, and Imminent Strike Calculus in the Middle East

Munich at an Inflection Point: Ukraine’s Existential War, Iranian Escalation, PLA Expansion, and the Global Shift in Air & Missile Defense

Dual Carriers to Iran, Russia’s Nuclear Posture in Belarus, PLA Taiwan Build-Up, Cuba Blackouts, and the 2036 Multipolar Forecast

Russia Tightens RuNet as Ukraine Strikes Deep, PLA Leadership Purges Expand, Iran Missile Talks Stall, and U.S. Counter-Drone Laser Triggers El Paso Airspace Shutdown

Carrier Posture, Korean Modernization Signals, Iran Unrest, Russian Adaptation, and Boyd’s Warning on Strategic Blindness

Iran Crackdown, US–Iran Nuclear Signaling, Russian Peace Pressure, and Global Force Posture Shifts

Russia Escalates Strikes on Ukraine, Iran Rebuilds Missiles as Talks Stall, Israel Signals Unilateral Action, and the U.S. Accelerates Drone, Bomber, and Munitions Posture

Ratings & Reviews

Keep going!

About

Information

You Might Also Like

The LOWDOWN

Episodes

Deadline Diplomacy and Shifting Battle Rhythms: Iran on the Brink, Ukraine Stalls, and China Shapes the Field

U.S.–Iran Crisis Point: Dual Carrier Surge, Israeli Maximum Alert, and Imminent Strike Calculus in the Middle East

Munich at an Inflection Point: Ukraine’s Existential War, Iranian Escalation, PLA Expansion, and the Global Shift in Air & Missile Defense

Dual Carriers to Iran, Russia’s Nuclear Posture in Belarus, PLA Taiwan Build-Up, Cuba Blackouts, and the 2036 Multipolar Forecast

Russia Tightens RuNet as Ukraine Strikes Deep, PLA Leadership Purges Expand, Iran Missile Talks Stall, and U.S. Counter-Drone Laser Triggers El Paso Airspace Shutdown

Carrier Posture, Korean Modernization Signals, Iran Unrest, Russian Adaptation, and Boyd’s Warning on Strategic Blindness

Iran Crackdown, US–Iran Nuclear Signaling, Russian Peace Pressure, and Global Force Posture Shifts

Russia Escalates Strikes on Ukraine, Iran Rebuilds Missiles as Talks Stall, Israel Signals Unilateral Action, and the U.S. Accelerates Drone, Bomber, and Munitions Posture

Ratings & Reviews

About

Information

You Might Also Like