The Trivium China Podcast

Trivium China
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Trivium China is an analysis firm that specializes in monitoring Chinese government policy. From our offices in Beijing, Shanghai, and DC, we break down Beijing's latest moves on the economy, technology, energy, climate, and agriculture.

  1. 15h ago

    Ep 82 - Another grim month for the Chinese economy

    China’s July macro data just landed, and the title of our monthly macro note says it all: “A Grim Picture.” Consumption, investment, and property all deteriorated further last month – and the two props that supported the economy in the first half of the year are now fading fast.On this episode, Trivium China podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Peissel (Lead Macro Analyst) to unpack: How July’s slowdown was broad-based, across nearly every metric that matters – and why growth looks even worse than the headlines suggestHow the K-shaped economy has spread from output into investment flows, entrenching the divide between booming and struggling sectorsWhy deflation, not inflation, remains the real danger for a heavily indebted economy like China’s – as officials are having to quietly pick their poisonWhy even China’s 24% y/y export growth print obscures a much less impressive reality, once you separate price from volume

  2. 3d ago

    Ep 81 - The AI loophole Washington can’t afford to close

    Chinese companies can’t legally buy the most advanced US-made AI chips, so they’re renting them instead – from data centers in Thailand, Malaysia, and beyond – completely legally. US policymakers know about the issue – but several years into the implementation of export controls on advanced chips, they still haven’t closed it.And there’s a reason for that.On this episode of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk sits down with Tom Nunlist (Associate Director, Tech Practice, Shanghai) to unpack: How Kimi K3’s release forced Washington to confront a loophole in export controls it’s known about for agesWhy renting chips sits completely outside the rules that govern buying them, even when the end result is identicalWhy closing this gap risks a “double win” for Beijing: 1) marketing material to court the Global South with China’s AI stack and 2) and potential leverage to retaliate with rare earths, ultimately causing the US to back downWhy cutting off compute access could undermine trust in the US AI stack, like sanctions have eroded trust in the US dollar – and why that risk may be exactly what’s keeping policymakers’ finger off the trigger

  3. Aug 13

    Ep 80 - The China chokepoints nobody's watching

    When it comes to China’s key nodes of economic leverage, rare earths get all the attention – because they’re the cheapest, easiest lever China has to pull. But the more durable – and future – points of leverage are already hiding in plain sight, in hundreds of intermediate goods most people never think about. Gerard DiPippo, Director of Global Macro at Eurasia Group, returns to the pod as our first ever two-time guest, joined by Dinny McMahon and Cory Combs, to unpack it.On this episode, host Andrew Polk sits down with Gerard, Dinny, and Cory to dive into: Why rare earths are a uniquely cheap and low-cost weapon for Beijing, and why other chokepoints like batteries carry far higher stakesHow China’s licensing regime doubles as a surveillance system, giving Beijing visibility into global supply chains it can use to ratchet pressure up or down at willThe “shoe that hasn’t dropped yet”: China’s shelved extraterritorial rule that could restrict any product containing Chinese-origin content, anywhere in the worldWhy intermediate goods are the next frontier to watch, and why China’s reaction function gets a lot murkier once controls move further down the production chain – into products with real commercial value to Chinese firms themselvesIt’s another great discussion – so enjoy!

  4. Aug 11

    Ep 79 - Beijing stops playing coy

    On August 5th, China dropped a new batch of retaliatory economic measures against various US entities. And this time, officials did something they rarely do – naming exactly which US actions they were responding to and why.On this episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits down with Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to unpack: What exactly landed in MofCom’s four-part policy package – from countersanctions on US biotech and compliance firms to China’s first ever foreign-trade national security investigationWhy this round of retaliation was aimed squarely at the FCC and DHS, and how it traces back to actions on robotics, drones, and forced-labor sanctionsWhether Beijing’s unusually direct language about the Busan detente is a warning shot or a sign the deal is really at riskWhy neither side seems ready to blow up the agreement just yet, even as both keep testing its edges

  5. Aug 6

    Ep 78 - China's secret weapon isn't subsidies, it's pain tolerance

    US policymakers are constantly discussing whether America can leapfrog China in key technologies. Our answer: probably not, and batteries prove it.In fact, the real question isn't whether the US can – or even should – try to outpace China in at least some advanced tech; it's whether the West can afford not to learn from China. On this podcast episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to unpack: Why China is placing simultaneous bets on LFP, sodium-ion, and solid-state batteries, and what that "multi-modal" strategy reveals about how it actually innovatesHow brutal domestic competition, not central planning, is driving some of China's biggest technological breakthroughsWhy Beijing tolerates crushing margin pressure on its own battery makers, and what it's betting that pain buysThe uncomfortable case for the US actually licensing "second-best" Chinese tech, rather than racing to rebuild it from scratch

  6. Aug 2

    Ep 77 - There’s no such thing as overcapacity, China says

    Beijing just released its most detailed rebuttal yet to accusations from the West around industrial overcapacity – and it pointedly avoided using the very word that started the fight in the first place. There’s a reason for that, and we break it all down in today’s podcast.On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) to unpack: The five core arguments in MOFCOM’s new position paper on overcapacity, examining which ones hold up and which ones stretch too farWhy Beijing dropped the word “overcapacity” for “involution” 18 months ago, and what that rhetorical swap is designed to doHow China frames itself as both free trade’s champion and its victim, and why that framing leaves little room for compromiseWhy the US may have the least at stake here economically, and why Europe is where this fight actually gets decidedAs always, we hope you enjoy the discussion – reach out and let us know any thoughts or feedback.

  7. Jul 31

    Ep 76 - China's economy is hurting, Beijing's answer is patience

    China's July Politburo meeting is always a big one, as the leadership takes stock of the economy and signals policy adjustments for the second half of the year. In this year’s July meeting, officials clearly signaled that more fiscal support is on the way, but only in modest amounts.Note: This is our second short format episode – tighter, quick-turnaround reactions to the news as it breaks, alongside our regular weekly deep dives. Let us know what you think about the new format!On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Trivium’s Head of Markets Research) to unpack: How this July Politburo readout offered surprisingly clear language that more fiscal support is coming, and in what formWhat "fiscal-financial cooperation" means in practice, and why it's really code for interest rate subsidiesWhy Beijing is likely to lean on accelerated special-purpose bond issuance – and a probable Q4 top-up, following last year's playbook – rather than broad interest rate cutsWhy none of this changes the underlying story: Beijing is deliberately riding out a long, painful real estate adjustment – and this is just a slight pick-me-up

  8. Jul 27

    Ep 75 - DeepSeek Founder Goes Off Script in Leaked Investor Call

    A leaked, four-hour investor call with DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng has been spreading like wildfire on the Chinese internet over the past few days – before links to it started disappearing – and Trivium's Bao Linghao joined the pod to give it a Friday-morning stress test. His verdict: The transcript seems legit, and it tracks with everything else we know about how the lab operates.Quick note: This is another one of our shorter, quick-turnaround episodes – where Andrew grabs an analyst for their unfiltered take on something breaking in the news, alongside our regular weekly deep dives. On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Trivium Tech Analyst Bao Linghao (Shanghai) to unpack: Why DeepSeek's "no KPIs, no organization" culture is likely genuine rather than an investor pitch, and how a market-based valuation helps retain talentWhether DeepSeek's open-source commitment survives once – or if – it actually leads the frontier, given the pull to cash in once you get thereWhat Liang's "restraint" framing on pricing really means, and how DeepSeek's infrastructure edge lets it stay cheap without bleeding marginWhy Kimi K3's release upended assumptions about the US-China compute gap, and how "bench-maxxing" has muddied claims about how close Chinese models really areWhether China's crowded field of base-model labs is finally headed for real consolidationGive it a listen and let us know what you think.

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Ratings & Reviews

4.9
out of 5
19 Ratings

About

Trivium China is an analysis firm that specializes in monitoring Chinese government policy. From our offices in Beijing, Shanghai, and DC, we break down Beijing's latest moves on the economy, technology, energy, climate, and agriculture.

Information

  • Creator
    Trivium China
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    82
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 The Trivium China Podcast
  • Show Website
    The Trivium China Podcast

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