The Trivium China Podcast

Trivium China
  • 4.9 (20)
  • News
  • Updated Weekly

Trivium China is an analysis firm that specializes in monitoring Chinese government policy. From our offices in Beijing, Shanghai, and DC, we break down Beijing's latest moves on the economy, technology, energy, climate, and agriculture.

  1. 2d ago

    Ep 89 - Inside China's two-decade campaign to win over Latin America

    From ports to lithium mines to diplomatic battles over Taiwan, China has spent two decades persistently building influence across Latin America and the Caribbean – one contract, one relationship, one chamber of commerce at a time. Leland Lazarus’s new book – Dragon in the Americas: China’s Power, Presence, and Regional Influence – argues this isn’t simply a trade story.It’s a long game, and China is getting more strategic and deliberate about how it plays it.On the latest episode of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk sits down with Leland – Founder and CEO of Lazarus Consulting and author of Dragon in the Americas – to unpack: Why ports are the “lungs” of a country, and why 37 of them across Latin America and the Caribbean are now funded, financed, or operated by Chinese firmsWhy the region’s own answer to the US-China rivalry mirrors an old Cold War approach from Barbados: “a friend to all, but a satellite of none”The story behind the Panama Canal controversy, and why it’s just the most visible example of a much bigger patternHow Chinese mining firms quietly bypassed national governments and went straight to local officials to lock up 60% of the world’s lithium reservesWhy Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies in the region matter so much, and how far China is willing to go to flip themThe darker edge of China’s presence in the region: Chinese criminal networks that have laundered an estimated $312 billion through the US financial system, with Latin America and the Caribbean becoming a central nodeYou won’t want to miss this wide-ranging discussion – and make sure to check out Leland’s book while you’re at it!

  2. Sep 25

    Ep 88 - The Xi-Trump risk nobody's pricing in

    US President Donald Trump met Xi Jinping on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday – a rare honor last extended to the Pope by Barack Obama. The atmospherics of the greeting and the rest of Xi’s Washington trip were great. The actual deliverables of the visit were more muted. The one concrete outcome from Xi’s Washington visit was a two-month extension of the Busan trade truce, far short of the six-month floor most observers expected going in.On this quick-reaction episode of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Mazur (Head of Geopolitical Research, based in Beijing) to unpack: Why “healthy competition” is a subtly new phrase in Beijing’s playbook, and what the shift in rhetoric signalsUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s cryptic comment that China proposed “a bigger deal” over the weekend, and what that might meanWhy AI got an explicit shout-out in Xi’s comments during the bilateral meetings, and how managing the technology is becoming the new arms-control issue of the US-China relationshipThe risk nobody’s pricing in: If this meeting doesn’t build real momentum, the two follow-up meetings penciled in for later this year may just quietly fall off the calendarGive it a listen and let us know what you think.

  3. Sep 23

    Ep 87 - Joerg Wuttke: China told Europe exactly how it would beat us. We didn't listen.

    Back in 2017, China’s former SASAC chairman told Joerg Wuttke, then president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, precisely which industries China’s overcapacity machine would roll through next: EVs, batteries, solar, wind, basic chemicals. Fast forward a decade, and it happened exactly as he predicted. Joerg’s very blunt take: “China, in essence, is kind enough to tell us when and how they’re going to roll over us.”On this episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk, along with co-host Cory Combs, sits down with Joerg – now a partner at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group – to unpack: Why “China Shock 2.0” isn’t really a shock at all, but a systemic feature of how Beijing plans its economy – which was written out in black and white years in advanceThe shipping container math that captures the trade imbalance better than any dollar figure: one container now leaves Europe for China for every four that come backWhy Wuttke thinks a stronger renminbi, not tariffs, may be China’s real concession on the table before October’s EU-China trade negotiation deadlineThe key Chinese tech sector Wuttke says Europe should consider closing its market to (and it’s not the one you’d guess)Why demographic collapse, not trade policy, might ultimately be China’s biggest vulnerability – and Europe’s unlikely opportunityThis episode is another banger, y’all. You won’t want to miss it!

  4. Sep 18

    Ep 86 - The weaknesses behind China's booming exports

    China’s manufacturing output just grew at the fastest pace in six months, but retail sales barely moved last month – and the gap between the two growth rates just hit its widest point in over three years. The upshot: Exports are still picking up the slack. But an increasing chunk of China’s export growth is simply down to price increases, not rising volumes.So even that stalwart economic prop is starting to wobble.On this quick-reaction episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Peissel (Trivium’s Lead Macroeconomist) to unpack: Why the gap between factory output and consumer spending just hit a three-year high, and why Beijing’s own policy playbook keeps worsening the imbalanceThe hidden story in China’s “booming” exports: value is up 25%, but volumes for things like semiconductors and appliances are actually fallingThe one semi-bright spot in the monthly macro-econ data: infrastructure investment is declining at a slower pace (hurrah!)Why Beijing’s new interest-rate subsidy for consumers is aimed at the wrong problem entirelyPutting it all together: China’s economy will continue to decelerate into year-end. Give it a listen and let us know what you think.

  5. Sep 12

    Ep 85 - China’s approach to AI in the Global South: selling the razor blades, not the razor

    Everyone keeps calling the US-China AI competition a race. But Eric Olander, co-founder of the China Global South Project, says that framing is wrong – because a race implies a finish line, and this competition doesn't have one.Eric’s view is that Chinese AI companies aren't necessarily looking to out innovate US closed-weight models.Instead, the goal for China is to become Android to America's Apple – 10% of the profit, but 90% of the world's users.On this week’s episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Eric discusses China’s approach to building AI offerings in the Global South with host Andrew Polk – but only after the two run through the flurry of travel and diplomacy Xi Jinping is undertaking throughout September. The two discuss the implications of Xi’s travels, then turn to China’s AI strategy in the region, touching on: How Xi turned a single stop in Egypt into a four-birds-one-stone diplomatic play, touching on the Iran war, the Israel-Palestine conflict, Africa-China relations, and the dynamics around Xinjiang all at onceWhy the India-China thaw is real but fragile, and why Xi and Modi's sideline meeting at the upcoming BRICS summit matters more than anything on the summit's official agendaWhy China’s AI push into the Global South won’t really be about the models themselves – but about enabling those models with Huawei servers, support contracts, and services sold on top of free, open-weight codeWhy the "China is less secure" pitch against Chinese AI companies doesn't land in a Global South that trusts Washington about as little as it trusts BeijingWhy nobody in the Global South expects much from Xi's Washington visit, and why the mood in Beijing right now is just as hardened as it is in DCStrap in – we cover a lot of ground in this one!

  6. Sep 4

    Ep 84 - Nobody knows where the line is, and that’s the problem

    The US and China have been quietly testing each other’s limits all summer – and neither side actually knows where the breaking point is. To discuss the nature – and limits – of the fragile US-China economic détente, we are joined this week by Evan Medeiros, the Penner Family Chair and Director of Asian Studies at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. Evan’s read: The US-China relationship is at an unstable equilibrium, and in for a snapback toward a much more contentious state of play.  In this episode, host Andrew Polk and Trivium colleague Cory Combs sit down with Evan to unpack: Why Xi Jinping’s upcoming state visit to Washington, the first in over a decade, may be the one thing still holding the relationship togetherHow the trade war became a supply chain war back in April 2025, and why tariffs aren’t the main event anymoreWhy China keeps reaching for chokepoints tied to US national security instead of hitting the broader economy, and what that reveals about Beijing’s actual theory of leverageThe uncomfortable new front opening up: Beijing increasingly penalizing American companies for the crime of complying with US lawsIt’s another great discussion, so enjoy!

  7. Aug 28

    Ep 83 - Beijing's new directive to its tech firms: behave abroad

    Chinese tech companies keep getting fined and blocked overseas – sometimes unfairly, and sometimes because they’re behaving exactly like they do at home. Beijing just released a plan to fix both problems at once.Our take: “China’s nefarious plan to get its companies to obey overseas laws” is a Foreign Affairs headline just waiting to be written. On this episode, Trivium China podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Kendra Schaefer (Head of Tech Policy Research) to unpack: Why lumping AI labs, e-commerce platforms, and cybersecurity firms into the single regulatory category of “cyberspace enterprises” is a bigger deal than it soundsThe story behind AliExpress’s EUR 550 million EU fine, and why Chinese companies keep getting tripped up by rules they don’t fully understandOne vague line in the CAC’s latest policy doc that might matter most: Beijing says it will “regulate the overseas competitive behavior” of its own tech firms, with zero detail on howWhy cleaning up Chinese tech companies’ act abroad might get Beijing branded as the bad guy either way

  8. Aug 20

    Ep 82 - Another grim month for the Chinese economy

    China’s July macro data just landed, and the title of our monthly macro note says it all: “A Grim Picture.” Consumption, investment, and property all deteriorated further last month – and the two props that supported the economy in the first half of the year are now fading fast.On this episode, Trivium China podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Peissel (Lead Macro Analyst) to unpack: How July’s slowdown was broad-based, across nearly every metric that matters – and why growth looks even worse than the headlines suggestHow the K-shaped economy has spread from output into investment flows, entrenching the divide between booming and struggling sectorsWhy deflation, not inflation, remains the real danger for a heavily indebted economy like China’s – as officials are having to quietly pick their poisonWhy even China’s 24% y/y export growth print obscures a much less impressive reality, once you separate price from volume

See All (89)

Ratings & Reviews

4.9
out of 5
20 Ratings

About

Trivium China is an analysis firm that specializes in monitoring Chinese government policy. From our offices in Beijing, Shanghai, and DC, we break down Beijing's latest moves on the economy, technology, energy, climate, and agriculture.

Information

  • Creator
    Trivium China
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    89
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 The Trivium China Podcast
  • Show Website
    The Trivium China Podcast

You Might Also Like