The Trivium China Podcast

Trivium China
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Trivium China is an analysis firm that specializes in monitoring Chinese government policy. From our offices in Beijing, Shanghai, and DC, we break down Beijing's latest moves on the economy, technology, energy, climate, and agriculture.

  1. FEB 13

    Ep 56 - Heard on the street, Beijing edition

    It's been a while between trips, but last week Trivium's Head of Markets Research, Dinny McMahon, was back in Beijing. In this podcast, he and Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk discuss Dinny's observations and takeaways from the trip. After dissecting the vibe on the street, the gents get into: Where there might be some potential for investment growth this yearWhy the only thing that will unlock household spending is a housing market recoveryThis one is short and sweet, so please enjoy this fun-sized pod.  And a note to listeners:  The pod will be off for the Lunar New Year next week.But we'll be back in your feeds after the holiday with some exciting new content, so stay tuned!

    32 min

  2. FEB 6

    Ep 55 - Can US-China relations remain a calm amidst the geopolitical storm?

    US-China bilateral relations have, surprisingly, been an anchor of calm amidst a sea of geopolitical uncertainty in the opening innings of 2026. And increasingly, it looks like the seemingly fragile truce between the two countries will prove more resilient that it initially seemed – back when US President Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a trade war détente in November.To discuss the state of play – and where things might be going – Trivium China pod host Andrew Polk is joined this week by Joe Mazur (Head of Geopolitical Research) and Even Pay (Head of Ag and Trade Policy Research). The trio discuss: The notable shift in tone and approach from the Trump administration toward ChinaThe latest Xi-Trump call, which took place this weekThe upcoming visit to China by Donald Trump, which is set for AprilWhether America’s more aggressive policy in the Western Hemisphere is hurting or helping China’s interests in the regionThen Andrew and Even go deep on the most important domestic policy development of the week, the release of the 2026 No. 1 Document, which outlines ag policy priorities for the year. They touch on: Why ag and rural policies are so important to Party leadersThe shift toward boosting efficiency and productivity in the ag sector – as part of Xi’s wider promotion of New Quality Productive ForcesRecent adjustments to ag and rural policy funding arrangements, and what they might mean for China’s non-urban areas

    1h 7m

  3. JAN 31

    Ep 54 - Can China get investment growth back on track?

    On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk speaks with our lead macro-econ analyst, Joe Peissel, to take a quick temperature check of China’s latest macro data. The two discuss: What the full-year 2025 data (released in mid-Jan) tells us about the state of play and the likely economic trajectory for 2026How the constituent parts of the economy – consumption, investment, and exports – are faringWhether the export machine can possibly go from strength to strength in 2026Then Andrew is joined by pod regulars Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) and Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to examine the enduring headwinds to capital expenditure in China. They get into: Whether the cratering in fixed asset investment (FAI) growth in H2 2025 was a one-off or is the new normal (spoiler alert: it’s probably the latter)Prospects for investment in a couple of key industries – autos and renewable energyHow government policy might address the investment slideAnd where infrastructure spending fits in – particularly energy infrastructure, as it relates to the recently released massive spending plan from State GridIt’s another wonk-fest, so lap it up you China nerds.

    1h 13m

  4. JAN 24

    Ep 53 - Financial regulators start 2026 with a bang + Beijing’s view on the Meta-Manus deal

    China’s financial regulators have started 2026 with a flurry of activity. On January 14, the securities regulator raised margin requirements on stock trading in a bid to cool investors’ exuberance.The following day the central bank expanded a bunch of its relending facilities, and cut the interest rate on all of its structural lending tools.Then on January 20, the finance ministry rolled out a bunch of measures designed to bolster investment by small, private sector firms.What’s driving this hyperactive policymaking? That’s what Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss on the first Trivium podcast of 2026. They look at: How weak Q4 economic data has lit a fire under regulatorsWhy authorities have settled on this particular combination of policiesAnd what signals Beijing is trying to send marketsBut wait, there’s more! On the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by a new guest to the podcast, Trivium’s lead AI and semiconductor analyst Linghao Bao. Linghao joins to discuss: Beijing’s intervention in Meta’s recently announced acquisition of Chinese AI start-up ManusThe specific regulatory tools China is using to slow – or maybe even stop – the dealThe wider implications for China’s AI start-up ecosystemThe gents cover a lot of ground in this one – enjoy!

    1h 25m

  5. 12/26/2025

    Ep 52 - China's economic slowdown – not as bad as it seems

    November economic data was a bit of a letdown, suggesting China’s economy is rapidly losing growth momentum. Fixed asset investment declined by double digitsIndustrial output grew at its slowest rate in 15 monthsRetail sales of consumer goods grew at the slowest rate in three yearsBut things aren’t as bad as they seem. This week, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s lead macro-econ analyst Joe Peissel to dig into November’s economic data. The gents cover: China’s supply-side slowdown, and why it’s partially policy-drivenWhy China’s consumption dynamics are more resilient than headline data suggestThe reason Beijing appears willing to tolerate a slight economic correctionAndrew and Joe then round things off by discussing China’s policy and economic outlook going into 2026.

    28 min

  6. 12/19/2025

    Ep 51 - Reordering global supply chains: licenses, leverage, and our strategic look-ahead

    As the new year approaches, governments, corporations, and investors alike are asking: what will critical material supply chains look like in the year to come? In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, discuss where global supply chains and diversification efforts stand today – and how they are likely to shape up in 2026. Starting from the latest need-to-know specifics and working up to the broader strategic takes from Team Trivium, the lads discuss: What's going on with China's general licenses and export trendsTrends and issues in US rare earth and broader critical mineral diversification efforts – including our take on the brand new international "Pax Silica" initiativeHow the rest of the world is responding to all this, both reactively and proactivelyHow China is responding to global diversification efforts – including where it is and is not pushing back, and whyPutting it all together, they take a stab at framing the bigger strategic issues ahead. We've all heard plenty about the tactics of supply chain decoupling – e.g., China's from US chips and Dutch lithography machines, and the US's from China's processed critical mineralsBut this all begs key questions, like: What is a desirable end state for both sides? And what does "security" actually look like? (Hint: it's not full decoupling.)Despite the fierce problems at hand, the gents land on a surprisingly optimistic vision of where US-China relations could land in the next few years – a happy note on which to enter the holidays after a tumultuous year.

    54 min

  7. 12/13/2025

    Ep 50 - Breaking down the Central Economic Work Conference

    At the end of each year, China's top economic policymakers get together for the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) to discuss their goals for the year ahead. This year's CEWC wrapped up on December 11, and in this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, get together to discuss the ins-and-outs of the meeting's official readout. Warning: The readout from the CEWC is invariably a big-picture policy document that's frustratingly thin on detail. Deciphering what the leadership means takes a little bit of reading between the lines.And that's exactly what the gents do! They start off with their 30,000-foot takeaways (TL;DR: Beijing envisions 2026 looking a lot like 2025). Then they get into: Where we might expect extra government spendingWhether Beijing will double-down on the consumer goods trade-in programHow Beijing intends to boost consumption

    38 min

  8. 12/06/2025

    Ep 49 - I say overcapacity, you say involution, let’s call the whole thing off

    In mid-2024, Beijing rebranded its overcapacity problems as “involution.” Does it matter? As the bard would say, a rose by any other name… And yet, over time it’s become clear that this was more than just a rebranding exercise. Along with the change in name came a subtle shift in how Beijing perceives its overcapacity problems – a shift that has important policy implications. In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, talk all things involution. The gents discuss: How the concept of involution differs from that of overcapacityWhy Beijing doesn’t think overcapacity can exist in a global free marketWhat Beijing’s anti-involution efforts look likeAnd what it all means for the rest of the worldThen, Andrew wraps things up with a brief rundown of the most recent developments in the US-China trade truce.

    43 min
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Ratings & Reviews

4.9
out of 5
18 Ratings

About

Trivium China is an analysis firm that specializes in monitoring Chinese government policy. From our offices in Beijing, Shanghai, and DC, we break down Beijing's latest moves on the economy, technology, energy, climate, and agriculture.

Information

  • Creator
    Trivium China
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    56
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 The Trivium China Podcast
  • Show Website
    The Trivium China Podcast

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