In this episode of the Texas Land Guys Podcast, brothers Tim and Tom Dosch break down the macro forces weighing on land and commercial real estate. With Brent crude near $110, the Iran conflict heating up, the 10-year Treasury approaching 5%, and the midterm elections around the corner, investors are hesitant to commit capital. They explain why this uncertainty has stalled recovery in 2026 and why higher oil, diesel, and financing costs ripple through the entire economy. The conversation then turns to the U.S. debt crisis. At $40 trillion and roughly 125% debt-to-GDP, with $2 trillion a year just to service it, Tim argues the country will likely print its way out, creating a soft default through inflation. That hurts cash holders and the middle class but benefits asset holders, making land and income-producing property a potential hedge. They clarify the difference between a cap rate and a Treasury yield, why the 10-year matters to developer underwriting, and how higher rates can immediately pressure land values even as long-term money printing inflates them. Tim and Tom discuss why developers are becoming pickier, why only the best sites with strong stories are getting capitalized, and why industrial and AI/data-center development is carrying much of Texas. They warn that AI regulation and midterm outcomes could slow that engine, potentially triggering a recession. Looking ahead, they expect near-term volatility, possible deals falling out, a multifamily reset, and a continued flight to quality into 2027. Key Takeaways Macro uncertainty, including $100+ oil, the Iran conflict, 5% Treasuries, and the midterms, keeps investors cautious. U.S. debt is a long-term structural problem; $40T debt costs ~$2T/year to service. Debt-to-GDP above 130% has historically led to soft or hard defaults; the U.S. may print its way out, causing inflation. Inflation hurts cash and helps asset holders, making land and income property a potential hedge. The 10-year Treasury is market-set and directly affects developer underwriting, cap rates, and land values. A cap rate is not a bond; it reflects current NOI and bets on future rent growth and appreciation. Short-term higher rates can lower land values; long-term money printing tends to inflate them. Industrial and AI/data-center development carries much of Texas’s economy now. AI regulation is a wildcard; slowing data centers could crush the economy downstream. Flight to quality will continue; the multifamily reset may make 2027 underwriting difficult. In This Episode: [00:03] Intro [00:37] Market uncertainty: $100 oil, 5% Treasuries, Iran war [02:02] Why capital has been hesitant in 2026 [03:18] U.S. debt crossing $40 trillion and Iran’s incentive before midterms [05:40] Texas economy: high oil prices help and hurt [06:34] National debt, Japan, the yen carry trade, and the 10-year [08:46] Debt-to-GDP, inflation, and printing our way out [13:52] The 10-year Treasury vs. the Fed’s short-term rate [16:35] Cash opportunity cost and real inflation [18:14] Cap rate vs. bond: NOI growth and future upside [20:51] Developers getting pickier and the “great real estate” test [25:41] Recession response, government spending, and money supply [27:24] Industrial, AI, and data centers driving Texas [34:38] Elon Musk’s companies employ about 160,000 people [37:00] Predictions: oil, rates, Fed, and the next year [42:50] Flight to quality, multifamily reset, and midterms [45:37] Wrap-up: macro conversations with clients Resources and Links Podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/welcome-to-the-texas-land-guys-podcast-the-art/id1788566687?i=1000682586353 https://dmre.com/ Tim Dosch https://www.linkedin.com/in/tim-dosch-67a07899 https://dmre.com/ https://ascentinv.com/ https://100xharvest.org/ Tom Dosch https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-dosch-37263b3b/ https://dmre.com/ https://ascentinv.com/ https://100xharvest.org/
