The Energy Flux podcast

Seb Kennedy

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Critical conversations about the role of natural gas and LNG in rapidly changing energy markets. Energy Flux is the home of fiercely independent energy market analysis, with a focus on European gas and global LNG. Find out more & subscribe at: https://www.EnergyFlux.news/

4D AGO

The Pain Factor: Why markets anticipate a long Hormuz closure

In this episode, Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by special guest Victor Ponsford, an independent energy strategic communications consultant, to discuss wide-ranging impacts of US/Israeli war in Iran on global LNG and gas markets. The conversation delves into the likely duration of the Hormuz closure, and why political and military factors are conspiring to keep this strategic maritime chokepoint closed for months rather than weeks. They discuss how physical and financial market players in the European gas market are positioning to manage risk and capitalise on the repercussions of prolonged loss of 20% of global LNG supply. And they explore the yawning gap between political rhetoric and physical reality on the ground in the Persian Gulf. Article referenced: US LNG war profits, quantified (Energy Flux)Hormuz closure triggers record TTF liquidation (Energy Flux) Chapters 00:00 Welcome to the Podcast and Guest Introduction02:30 Hormuz Crisis Duration, and the Pain Factor in Diplomacy05:31 US LNG Windfall Profits: Winners & Losers from Iran War11:00 Impact on US Consumers and America's Domestic Gas Market18:25 Diverse Uses of LNG Across Emerging Markets24:19 Politics and Market Perception of Hormuz Closure32:26 Impact of Unforeseen Outages and Future Market Conditions Sign up to the free Energy Flux newsletter (link)

41 min
12/22/2025

Scarcity, Abundance and Urgency: How Natural Gas Prices Dictate the Pace of Energy Transition

In this episode of the Energy Flux podcast, host Seb Kennedy explores the evolving landscape of energy markets, focusing on the implications of gas pricing on the energy transition. He discusses the potential for cheaper gas to impact investments in renewable energy technologies and the mindset shifts among policymakers as energy crises recede. The monologue also delves into the future of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the volatility of energy markets, emphasising the need for strategic planning in the face of potential shortages in the coming years. 🎦 Watch video version: Energy Flux YouTube page TakeawaysThe energy crisis is shifting towards a more stable pricing environment.Cheaper gas may hinder the urgency of the energy transition.Policymakers may deprioritise energy security as crises fade.Abundance in energy can lead to complacency in innovation.The LNG market faces uncertainty with potential project cancellations.Investment in LNG infrastructure is becoming less attractive.Gas volatility underscores the need for strategic energy planning.The LNG industry itself is warning of a supply crunch in the early 2030s.Future energy policies must consider the potential for sudden market swings.Chapters00:00 Talking Gas Outside the Kings Cross Gasometer Buildings 03:06 The Impact of Cheap Gas on Energy Transition 04:37 Policy Challenges and Mindset Shifts 08:17 The Future of LNG Projects and Market Dynamics 14:34 The Paradox of Energy Abundance and Complacency For more info and to subscribe, head to www.EnergyFlux.news

21 min
11/09/2025

The Illusion of Power: Empty Threats & New Dependencies in a Fragmented Energy World

In this episode, ⁠Energy Flux ⁠founding editor Seb Kennedy discusses the latest developments in energy diplomacy. Chief among these is the European Union's recent decision to ban Russian LNG; the implications for EU aspirations of energy independence; and the trade-offs of relying on allies like the US and Qatar, which are using the EU's own sustainability regulations as a tool of diplomatic coercion. He also covers the US sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, and the complexities of enforcing these measures. Seb connects the dots to uncover a troubling picture of geopolitical dysfunction, where decisive actions are undercut by empty threats and a glaring lack of enforcement. Are we witnessing a coherent strategy, or just a series of volatile half-measures that create the illusion of power? Key Topics Discussed: The EU's Accelerated LNG Ban: Why the 2027 deadline is a bigger deal than it seems, and the logistical headaches it creates for Central Europe.The Dependency Pivot: How swapping Russian gas for US LNG creates a new set of vulnerabilities.Empty Threats: Deconstructing why the US and Qatar's warnings over EU sustainability rules are a bluff that collapses under scrutiny.Sanctions & Enforcement: Analysing the new US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, and why their success hinges on an enforcement track record that's far from perfect. To find out more about Energy Flux and to sign up for free updates, head to ⁠www.EnergyFlux.news⁠.

15 min
09/17/2025

Gastech 2025 presentation: Mapping the storage-speculation nexus

In today's episode, Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy runs through the paper he presented at the recent Gastech 2025 conference in Milan. The title of the paper is Mapping the Storage-Speculation Nexus: Hedge fund positioning and the TTF forward curve. The paper explores a novel methodology for identifying investment fund trading strategies on Dutch TTF, the benchmark European natural gas futures price. Seb explains the methodology in full, and what it tells us about last year's TTF bull run and subsequent dramatic correction in February and April this year. He concludes by suggesting policy reforms that could be explored to mitigate some of the speculation-driven price volatility that has characterised TTF in recent times. The full slide deck can be downloaded at www.EnergyFlux.news, where you can sign up for the Energy Flux newsletter -- where all this research was originally published in 2024 and early 2025.

20 min
09/14/2025

Energy Flux @ Gastech 2025 - Milan, Italy

Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy tours the Gastech exhibition while reflecting on the main themes from the four-day conference. 👉For more analysis, subscribe to the newsletter at www.EnergyFlux.news Summary In this episode of the Energy Flux podcast, host Seb Kennedy reflects on the Gastech 2025 event, discussing the rising US presence in the LNG market, the economic realities of pricing, and the political implications of US LNG exports. He explores the future of US natural gas production and shares insights from his experiences at the event, emphasizing the complexities and challenges facing the energy sector. Key topics & takeaways Gastech was a momentous event at a significant historical junctureThe disconnect between public statements from industry leaders and market realities is wideningOver-investment in LNG capacity is reshaping the global glut depth & duration outlookTransatlantic margins will face significant compression (as detailed in last week’s Hot Take)North-West Europe-TTF price dislocation as lead indicator for distressed LNG cargo pricingHow merit order economics and cost inflation affect LNG investment attractivenessThe history of LNG, and the difference between conventional integrated export projects vs US LNG second waveThe political & economic implications of gas/electricity price inflation in the domestic US marketCan US shale production growth keep up with competition for upstream gas resources (LNG vs data centres)? Read more & subscribe at 👉 www.EnergyFlux.news 👈

29 min
08/15/2025

Make Alaska Russian Again?!

The Trump–Putin summit in Alaska is set to be a geopolitical circus — and in this episode of the Energy Flux podcast, I unpack what’s at stake, who stands to gain, and why parts of Europe should be paying close attention. I cover: * Why some in Moscow might be eyeing Alaska’s mineral wealth * How a land swap or ceasefire could reshape Ukraine’s future * The sanctions relief carrot Trump might dangle — and why I’m sceptical * The Armenia–Azerbaijan peace deal and the Zangezur corridor gambit * What all this could mean for LNG markets already swimming in supply There’s also a quick update at the end on what I’ve been building at Energy Flux: new data tools, a members-only discussion forum, and an AI-powered daily briefing for premium subscribers. Thanks for listening, — Seb To hear more, visit www.EnergyFlux.news

19 min
05/12/2025

🎧 Nord Stream 2: the plot thickens!

The day after the European Commission proposed an outright ban on Russian gas in the EU, a Swiss court threw a lifeline to Nord Stream 2. The ruling opens the door to a potential revival of the defunct Russia-Germany gas pipeline that was half destroyed in a dramatic subsea explosion in 2022. How should we square the circle of an EU ban on Russian gas with a possible revival of Nord Stream 2? How does the restructuring ruling affect the ownership of this contentious piece of infrastructure? Would any buyer really be interested in owning it? This episode unpacks the legal ruling and weighs up the options in light of the EU’s push to outlaw Russian gas entirely, which I covered in last week’s Chart Deck. I also discuss the historical purpose of Nord Stream 2, the role it played before and during the 2021-22 energy crisis, and how Gazprom’s actions have galvanised a European political consensus against a resumption of Russian gas dependency. Thanks for listening, — Seb To hear more, visit www.EnergyFlux.news

31 min
04/28/2025

🎧 Fickle trade war takes its toll on LNG demand

The US-China trade war has rewritten the macroeconomic outlook for 2025, and with it the global demand picture for liquefied natural gas (LNG). Swingeing import tariffs could be lifted just as quickly as they were introduced. However, even a swift resolution at this stage would be unlikely to purge the bearish sentiment now dominating the European natural gas market. This episode catches up on the many market-moving events of recent weeks, with a focus on disruption to energy trade, relaxation of the EU’s gas storage targets, and bearish factors weighing on the summer gas demand outlook. In the reader Q&A, I fielded questions relating to my recent take on the shift to a new lower pricing regime, and the risks posed by a cratering price environment to customers buying US LNG. I also share my thoughts on The New Joule Order, a thought-provoking essay from esteemed energy commodities analyst Jeff Currie. Thanks for listening, — Seb P.S. Don’t forget to share your questions, thoughts and reactions for inclusion in the next episode. I prioritise input from paid subscribers 😉 To hear more, visit www.EnergyFlux.news

36 min

Critical conversations about the role of natural gas and LNG in rapidly changing energy markets. Energy Flux is the home of fiercely independent energy market analysis, with a focus on European gas and global LNG. Find out more & subscribe at: https://www.EnergyFlux.news/

Creator

Seb Kennedy
Years Active

2025 - 2026
Episodes

13
Rating

Clean
Copyright

© 2025 Seb Kennedy
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The Energy Flux podcast